forward/inverse atmospheric modelling: recent results and future plans martyn chipperfield, manuel...
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Forward/Inverse Atmospheric Modelling: Recent Results and
Future Plans
Martyn Chipperfield, Manuel GloorUniversity of Leeds
NCEO meeting, University of Sheffield, 28th and 29st February 2012
Paul PalmerUniversity of Edinburgh
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Talk Layout
• Example Leeds forward/inverse model results
• Edinburgh plans (Paul Palmer)
• Additional science slides (Manuel Gloor, Leeds)
• Summary
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TOMCAT CH4 forward simulations – Transcom Results
Annual mean CH4 comparisons for six emission scenarios against NOAA surface flask data, 1988-2008.
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Average monthly mean CH4 comparisons for six emission scenarios against NOAA surface flask data, 2000-2006.
TOMCAT CH4 forward simulations – Transcom Results
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TOMCAT Adjoint Modelling – ALT station sensitivities
sensitivity CTL sensitivity INV sensitivity
Adjoint transport carried out using an initial value of 1 at Alert, Canada to find the sensitivity (LH plots)
This sensitivity is then multiplied by the emission rate for CTL (Centre plots) and INV emission (RH plots) inventories
This gives an ‘emission sensitivity’ for the ALT station, indicating the emission regions which are influencing the tracer concentration at the station
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TransCom CH4 emissions
NH Wetland areas treated individually
1. Alaska and Canada (>60N) (AL_CAN)
2. West Siberian Plain (WSP)3. Eastern Siberia (>60N) (E_SIB)
(Below) Total CH4 emissions for three TransCom emission inventories in wetland regions
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TOMCAT 4D-Var inversion results
One year inversion carried out (2008), assimilating eight-day mean data from six Arctic stations.
Representative results show relatively small changes in NH winter, but large reductions in wetland areas during April – October
Wilson et al (in prep), 2012
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More TOMCAT 4D-Var inversion results
(Left) Cost function decrease over three iterations of 4D-Var minimisation, split into contributions from observations (CF_O) and background (CF_B)
(Below) Total CH4 emissions for three wetland areas. TOMCAT inversion has decreased emissions in line with INV and VISIT in Eastern Siberia and Alaska/Canada regions
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Effect of emission changes
There is a marked improvement in RMSE between model and observations at the stations from which data has been assimilated, especially during NH summer months
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U. Ed. Past NCEO T3 CH4 activities• Developed CH4
simulation ready for EO• Used EO data to develop
wetland emissions [Bloom et al, 2010]
• Developed EnKF for CH4 source/sink estimation
• Extensively evaluated model [Fraser et al, 2011]
• Established links with GOSAT teamCore
framework
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U. Ed. Ongoing NCEO T3 CH4 activities• TransCom (Patra et al, 2011) and GCP (Kirschke et al, 2011)• Flux estimates: improve geographical and sector breakdown.• GOSAT collaboration with U. Leicester (Parker et al, 2011)
SHN
H
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• GEOS-Chem to use GEOS v5 met. data (0.25ox0.3125o)• Data: GOSAT, IASI, Sentinel-5P + any new national
missions; exploiting correlations with CO• Major focus:
U. Ed. Future NCEO CH4 activities
GEO
S-Ch
em/E
nKF JU
LES/HadG
EM2
•Compare bottom-up/top-down wetland emissions•Help inform JULES development•Co-join two models•Develop inverse problem (parameter estimation?)
EO data
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What could be focus of research? Could include:
GHG flux estimation using inversions (and new measurements programs like AMAZONICA or OCO2?)
Land surface observation using remote sensing – e.g. GRACE or NDVI
Land surface – climate interaction modelling using JULES ?
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Seneviratne et al. 2010
Links to Leeds Amazon Work
Regions with strong soil-moisture temperature coupling
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Currently: not much predictive capability e.g. in tropics
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Amazon river discharge at Obidos (drains nearly80 % of Amazon basin)
(data from ABA, Brazil govt. hydro-logy measurements, gap filling by Callède et al.)
- Overall an upward trend in river discharge- extremes increase – dry season drier, wet season wetter
How will land vegetation respond ?
Peak
Mean
Minimum
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AMAZONICA - biweekly Greenhouse Gas DataDec. 2009 onwards for next 4 years (L. Gatti, Sao Paulo, M. Gloor, Leeds, H. Rocha, Sao Paulo, J. Miller NOAA, Boulder)
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FCO2 (CO2
site CO2backgrd )dz
z0
4km
tSanta Rem tcoast
Simple Analysis Through Back Trajectories
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Tabatinga Santarém
Rio Branco Alta Floresta
In 2010: Amazon weak net carbon source (~0.2PgC yr-1)
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What could be focus of research:
GHG flux estimation using inversions (and new measurements programs like AMAZONICA or OCO2?)
Land surface observation using remote sensing – e.g. GRACE or NDVI
Land surface – climate interaction modelling using JULES ?
Possibly:Observe and understand ongoing trends of the land-vegetation climate coupled system in those regions which are sensitive
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Summary
Tools:• Forward atmospheric CH4/CO2/CO (+ full chem) chemical transport models operational and tested• Inverse schemes EnKF and 4D-var operational
Plans:• Assimilate existing/new satellite datasets (GOSAT, IASI, Sentinel 5-P)• Test top down/bottom up emission estimates• Close collaboration with JULES team (CEH)
Scientifically:• Arctic wetlands• AMAZONICA / vegetation-atmosphere interactions• Others…
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