forward looking statement€¦ · standard chartered, the directors and other members of its senior...
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Forward looking statement
This presentation contains or incorporates by reference ‘forward-looking statements’ regarding the belief or current expectations of Standard Chartered, the Directors and other members of its senior management about the Group’s businesses and the transactions described in this presentation. Generally, words such as ‘‘may’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘will’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘continue’’ or similar expressions identify forward-looking statements.
These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Rather, they are based on current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside the control of the Company and/or its Group and are difficult to predict, that may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results or developments expressed or implied from the forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties changes in the credit quality and the recoverability of loans and amounts due from counterparties; changes in the Group’s financial models incorporating assumptions, judgments and estimates which may change over time; risks relating to capital, capital management and liquidity; risks arising out of legal and regulatory matters, investigations and proceedings; operational risks inherent in the Group’s business; risks arising out of the Group’s holding company structure; risks associated with the recruitment, retention and development of senior management and other skilled personnel; risks associated with business expansion and engaging in acquisitions; global macroeconomic risks; risks arising out of the dispersion of the Group’s operations, the locations of its businesses and the legal, political and economic environment in such jurisdictions; competition; risks associated with the UK Banking Act 2009 and other similar legislation or regulations; changes in the credit ratings or outlook for the Group; market, interest rate, commodity prices, equity price and other market risk; foreign exchange risk; financial market volatility; systemic risk in the banking industry and amongst other financial institutions or corporate borrowers; cross-border country risk; risks arising from operating in markets with less developed judicial and dispute resolution systems; risks arising out of regional hostilities, terrorist attacks, social unrest or natural disasters and failure to generate sufficient level of profits and cash flows to pay future dividends.
Any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation based on past or current trends and/or activities of Standard Chartered should not be taken as a representation that such trends or activities will continue in the future. No statement in this presentation is intended to be a profit forecast or to imply that the earnings of the Company for the current year or future years will necessarily match or exceed the historical or published earnings of the Company. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of the particular statement. Standard Chartered expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in Standard Chartered’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
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Leading the way in Asia, Africa and the Middle East Peter Sands Group Chief Executive
Agenda
CEO Introduction Peter Sands
Financial review Richard Meddings
Lunch
Wholesale Banking presentation Mike Rees, Saleem Razvi
Consumer Banking presentation Steve Bertamini, Vishu Ramachandran
Tea break
Risk management presentation Richard Goulding
Wrap up and closing remarks Peter Sands
Note: Two minute silence to be observed for remembrance day at 11am
Key messages
2013 performance has been resilient
We are confident in our markets and our competitive strengths
Our strategy remains consistent and we are sharpening our focus
We aspire to strong growth while focusing on returns
Macro environment
Real GDP growth (%)
4.5 3.8 4.0 4.3
MENA* 5.3 4.9 5.4 5.4
Africa
1.4 1.0 2.0 2.4
6.7 6.5 6.5 6.3
2012 2013 2014 2015-2018
Asia
7.7 China 7.6 7.4 7.0
Advanced economies
2012 2013 2014 2015-2018 2012 2013 2014 2015-2018 2012 2013 2014 2015-2018
2.8 US 1.6 2.5 3.3
Source: Standard Chartered Research; International Monetary Fund * Middle East and North Africa
Macro environment – Asia
\
Net foreign assets (% of GDP)
-20
0
20
40
60
China Malaysia Thailand Philippines Korea India Indonesia
1994 - 1996 2010 - 2012
Current account (% of GDP)
-10
-5
0
5
10
Malaysia Philippines Korea China Thailand Indonesia India
1994 - 1996 2010 - 2012
Real effective exchange rate (2 year % change)
-20 -10
0 10 20 30
India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Korea Philippines China
Jun-97 Jun-12
Source: Institute of International Finance, International Monetary Fund, Bank for International Settlements
Macro outlook – Asia, Africa and the Middle East
World Real GDP (US$trn)
73.5 5.3
(33%)
6.6 (42%)
3.9 (25%)
89.3
2013 Advanced economies
Asia, Africa and the Middle East
Other 2018
2013–18 growth
Source: International Monetary Fund (Oct 2013)
Macro outlook – China
Absolute Real GDP growth (US$trn)
Urban population (millions)
Real GDP / Capita ($) Economic reform “We should dare to tackle difficulties and venture along dangerous paths to break through barriers to reform”
Xi Jingping, President
2.3 3.0 3.4
2002-07 2007-12 2012-17
691 926
2011 2025
6,600 9,000
2013 2018
China
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Mckinsey & Company, International Monetary Fund (Oct 2013)
Macro outlook – India
India real GDP growth (%) 8.0
5.0 4.7 5.3
6.5
2007-11 2012 2013 2014 2015-18
India
Incremental labour force (millions)
110
90
200
2011-2020 2021-2030 Total
Source: Standard Chartered Research, International Monetary Fund, Goldman Sachs
Macro outlook – Africa
Source: UN population database, UNCTAD
Working age population (millions)
Top 5 trading partners
86
UK 36
South Africa 44
India 68
China
102USA
2012 trade volume - US$bn 2002-2012
CAGR
2030
793
2020
612
2010
466
2000
355
Africa
15%
26%
29%
17%
11%
Banking sector
Regulation
Our strengths
Differentiated network Culture – Here for good
1902
1906
1912
1925
1894
1858 1858
1863
Balance sheet strength Conservative management philosophy
Strong capital position – Core Tier 1 No compromise on credit quality ratio of 11.4% at 30 June 2013
Funding before lending Basel III leverage ratio of 4.6%
Strong liquidity position Focus on organic growth
Our priorities
Continuing to build our business for the long term
Setting aspirations
Proving we are Here for good
Innovating and digitising
Investing in profitable growth
Making choices to reflect near term environment
Sharpening capital allocation
Optimising our portfolio
Refocusing Korea
Our aspirations
Build trusted relationships with the people, companies and institutions shaping our markets’ future
Become the undisputed leader in commercial payment and financing for and in Asia, Africa and the Middle East
Play a leading role in facilitating investment and deepening financial markets in our economies
Be recognised as a leader in growing and protecting our clients’ wealth
Establish sufficient scale, balance sheet and franchise strength to be relevant and influential in our key markets
Relationships
Trade
Investment
Wealth
Priority market scale
Our trade and wealth aspirations Trade opportunity
Standard Chartered - Trade assets (US$bn) AAME trade volume* (US$trn)
74 14
733
31% CAGR
9% CAGR
2009 2012 2012 2020
Wealth opportunity Standard Chartered – Wealth income (US$m) Global private financial wealth (US$trn)
11% CAGR
2012-17 CAGR
Asia, Africa and the Middle East
922 Rest of world
1,275
103 (76%)
33 (24%)
3%
11%
117 (68%)
55 (32%)
2009 2012 2012 2017 Source: World Trade Organization, Boston Consulting Group - Global wealth market sizing database 2013 * Asia, Africa and the Middle East
Culture – Here for good
Technology
Tests for peripheral business
Geographies
Economics
Clients
Activities
Here for good
Does this business bank the people, companies and institutions that shape our markets’ future?
Does this business drive investment, trade and creation of wealth?
Is the business consistent with Here for good?
Does the business strengthen our position in Asia, Africa and the Middle East?
Does the business contribute to our earnings growth, returns and capital accretion trajectory? Is the business model sustainable?
Korea
Korea banking sector
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 H1 13
Sector income Sector Return on Equity (ROE)
Korea
Source: Korea Financial Supervisory Service
Financial framework
Double digit income growth
Neutral cost – income jaws (with positive bias)
Double digit Earnings per Share (EPS) growth
Mid-teens Return on Equity (ROE) over the medium term
Key messages
2013 performance has been resilient
We are confident in our markets and our competitive strengths
Our strategy remains consistent and we are sharpening our focus
We aspire to strong growth while focusing on returns