fort collins q1 2020 - unique properties · 4/22/2020 · the foundry fort collins 3,740 q4 19...

FORT COLLINS

MARKET REPORTRETAIL

Q1 2020

303.321.5888 UNIQUEPROP.COM

FULL-SERVICE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SOLUTIONSPrivately-Owned and Operated for Over 40 Years

RETAIL MARKET REPORT

Market Key Statistics 2

Leasing 3

Rent 7

Construction 9

Under Construction Properties 10

Sales 11

Sales Past 12 Months 12

Economy 14

Market Submarkets 16

Supply & Demand Trends 18

Rent & Vacancy 21

Sale Trends 24

Fort Collins Retail

4/22/2020Copyrighted report licensed to Unique Properties, Inc. - 1130503.

OverviewFort Collins Retail

146 K 229 K 3.8% 2.9%12 Mo Deliveries in SF 12 Mo Net Absorption in SF Vacancy Rate 12 Mo Rent Growth

The Colorado governor ordered all bars, restaurants(indoor dining only), theaters, and fitness centers closethrough April 26, and perhaps longer depending on thecoronavirus' rate of spread. With virtually all non-essential businesses shuttered, the fate of many smallerretail tenants hang in the balance as they rely ongovernment intervention on a local and federal level. Thecurrent report largely reflects the market environmentprior to the pandemic.

The Fort Collins retail market was on firm groundentering 2020, supported by a strong and diverse labormarket that includes more than 20 Fortune 500companies. Moreover, Fort Collins boasts exceptionaleconomic and demographic trends. Median incomeshave increased at a rate twice the national average overthe past five years. Net migration has propelledpopulation growth to an average of about 2% over thepast five years, more than twice the national average.

Even as development has picked up, vacancies remainexceptionally tight (recently within about 100 basis points

of all-time lows) and rents are growing, albeit at amoderate pace.

The metro is not immune to the recent uptick in nationalstore closings. In recent years, Sports Authority closed a45,000 SF location at the Front Range Village shoppingcenter, and Toys "R" Us closed a 65,000 SF location.

While Sports Authority and Toys "R" Us closed all of theirstores nationally, retailers that are selectively closinglocations would ostensibly be unlikely to first target ametro like Fort Collins, which boasts some of thestrongest demographic momentum in the country.

With exceptional demographic trends and rapid growthalong the Northern Colorado I-25 corridor, Fort Collinshas been one of the few metros in the country to seeoutsized retail development this cycle. Currently, themetro is home to the only mall-style developmentunderway in the State of Colorado (various componentsof the Brands at the Ranch development in Loveland).

KEY INDICATORS

Market RentVacancy RateRBACurrent Quarter Availability RateNet Absorption

SFDeliveries SF

UnderConstruction

$23.979.2%2,218,672Malls 10.6% 0 0 0

$24.524.5%2,834,674Power Center 7.3% 0 0 62,000

$18.793.7%5,154,250Neighborhood Center 5.0% (1,616) 0 0

$15.722.5%965,922Strip Center 3.5% 3,277 0 4,500

$16.802.4%9,241,232General Retail 3.5% (2,121) 0 27,732

--0Other - 0 0 0

$19.123.8%20,414,750Market 5.2% (460) 0 94,232

ForecastAverage

HistoricalAverage

12 MonthAnnual Trends Peak When Trough When

3.6%5.5%-0.6%Vacancy Change (YOY) 7.9% 2009 Q1 3.2% 2017 Q4

183,888315,086229 KNet Absorption SF 1,005,349 2008 Q3 (19,157) 2014 Q2

140,044317,957146 KDeliveries SF 1,135,939 2008 Q3 26,768 2010 Q1

1.1%1.2%2.9%Rent Growth 3.5% 2007 Q1 -3.0% 2009 Q4

N/A$108.8M$200 MSales Volume $192.9M 2012 Q4 $23.8M 2009 Q4


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LeasingFort Collins Retail

Buttressed by low unemployment, job growth, populationgrowth, and median household income growth far betterthan the national average, the Fort Collins retail marketis on firm footing. Vacancies remain below the market’slong-term average, despite the fact that Fort Collins hasseen more retail development than all but a handful ofmetros nationally this cycle (in percentage terms).

The high tech sector and innovative manufacturing baseare rapidly growing, supported by the presence of morethan 20 Fortune 500 companies. Additionally, ColoradoState University provides a steady source of demand forgoods, with 7,000 employees and more than 30,000students.

Grocers have driven some of the larger single demandgains over the last few years, from King Soopers takingmore than 100,000 SF in Fort Collins at a former K-Martlocation, to Sprouts and Wild Zora Foods moving intospace in Loveland. Scheels opened up a new location asthe largest tenant at a major new development inJohnstown, near the intersection of I-25 and US 34.

Johnstown is one of several booming cities along the I-25 corridor in Northern Colorado. Six out of the 10fastest growing cities in the state of Colorado (with apopulation of at least 2,500) are located in NorthernColorado right off of I-25. The population in the city ofJohnstown soared by almost 60% from 2012-2017, oran increase of just over 5,000 residents.

NET ABSORPTION, NET DELIVERIES & VACANCY


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VACANCY RATE

AVAILABILITY RATE


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12 MONTH NET ABSORPTION SF IN SELECTED BUILDINGS

3rd QtrBuilding Name/Address Submarket Building SF Vacant SF

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 4th Qtr 12 Month

Net Absoption SF

Fort Collins Ret 105,267 0 105,267 0 0 0 105,267Kmart Plaza

Fort Collins Ret 87,000 0 87,000 0 0 0 87,000Johnstown Plaza (1)

Fort Collins Ret 49,625 0 0 0 0 0 49,6251325 E Eisenhower Blvd

Fort Collins Ret 49,000 0 0 0 0 0 49,000Loveland Towne Center

Fort Collins Ret 25,000 0 0 0 0 0 25,000The Foundry - Movie Theatre

Fort Collins Ret 104,795 20,430 11,466 0 0 0 11,465The Square

Fort Collins Ret 10,000 0 0 0 0 0 10,000TBD Ronald Regan Blvd

Fort Collins Ret 77,340 10,791 0 0 0 0 9,246Harmony School Shops

Fort Collins Ret 8,000 0 0 0 0 0 8,000Johnstown Plaza (2)

Fort Collins Ret 21,940 1,859 0 8,000 0 0 7,187The Colorado Building

Fort Collins Ret 14,087 0 0 0 0 0 6,706Preston Center

Fort Collins Ret 122,512 0 0 0 0 0 6,549Glick Brothers Business Park

Fort Collins Ret 6,504 0 6,504 0 0 0 6,5041336 N Washington Ave

Fort Collins Ret 20,000 13,500 (13,500) 0 0 0 6,500The Plaza at Riverbend

Fort Collins Ret 11,717 5,358 0 0 0 0 6,3591825-1845 N College Ave

Fort Collins Ret 6,116 0 6,116 0 0 0 6,1164860 Larimer Pky

Fort Collins Ret 7,105 1,182 5,833 0 0 0 5,833The Foundry

726,008 53,120 208,686 8,000 0 0 406,357Subtotal Primary Competitors

19,705,891 718,309 (59,231) (8,460) 0 0 (179,106)Remaining Fort Collins Market

20,431,899 771,429 149,455 (460) 0 0 227,251Total Fort Collins Market


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TOP RETAIL LEASES PAST 12 MONTHS

Building Name/Address Submarket Leased SF Tenant Name Tenant Rep Company Leasing Rep CompanyQtr

Johnstown Plaza Fort Collins 60,000 - Carson Developmen… Carson Development, I…Q3 19

MainLine Fort Collins 10,600 Beach House Grill - CBREQ2 19

Harmony School Shops Fort Collins 8,464 AutoZone Parts, Inc CBRE Cushman & WakefieldQ3 19

The Colorado Building Fort Collins 8,000 - - CBREQ1 20

Loveland Marketplace Fort Collins 7,323 SynDaver Labs, Inc - Cushman & WakefieldQ1 20

The Square Fort Collins 6,810 - - Integrated Real Estate…Q1 20

357 Mountain Ave Fort Collins 6,310 Martial Arts Studio - RE/MAX Town & Count…Q4 19

Home State Plaza Fort Collins 6,040 Points West Community B… - -Q2 19

4487 Highland Meadows Pky Fort Collins/Loveland 6,000 Mash Lab Brewery - -Q3 19

252 Linden St Fort Collins 5,882 - - Waypoint Real Estate,…Q1 20

Poudre Valley Plaza Fort Collins/Loveland 5,575 Casa Margaritas - Cushman & WakefieldQ3 19

Harmony Marketplace Fort Collins 5,028 Orangetheory Fitness - -Q3 19

4221 W Eisenhower Blvd Outlying Larimer Cnty 4,964 Primary Event Rentals - RE/MAX NexusQ1 20

Johnstown Plaza Fort Collins 4,940 - - Carson Development -…Q3 19

The Square Fort Collins 4,656 - - Integrated Real Estate…Q1 20

200 Linden St Fort Collins 4,443 Domistyle LLC - Commercial Real Estat…Q2 19

Midtown Commons Fort Collins 4,213 Urban Mattress Fort Collins - Matrix Group, Inc.Q4 19

Shops at Creekside Park Fort Collins 4,143 Retail Control Systems, Inc. - Cushman & WakefieldQ3 19

Office Max Plaza Fort Collins 3,883 Shear NV Salon - LC Real Estate Group…Q4 19

1002 S College Ave Fort Collins 3,769 The Gold Leaf Collective,… - Cushman & WakefieldQ1 20

The Foundry Fort Collins 3,765 Mo Betta Gumbo - Cushman & WakefieldQ3 19

The Foundry Fort Collins 3,740 Vatos Tacos & Tequila II,… Waypoint Real Estat… Cushman & WakefieldQ4 19

1501 W Elizabeth St Fort Collins 3,650 - - -Q3 19

Foothills Mall Fort Collins 3,560 Fort Collins Barbecue, LLC - Cushman & WakefieldQ1 20

The Exchange Fort Collins 3,521 - - Waypoint Real Estate,…Q3 19

200 Linden St Fort Collins 3,500 Domistyle - Commercial Real Estat…Q3 19

Riverside Shopping Center Fort Collins 3,490 Fort Collins Bridge Club - Poudre Property ServicesQ4 19

1307 N College Ave Fort Collins 3,300 - - Commercial Real Estat…Q4 19

Harmony Commons Fort Collins 3,277 LC Tacos, LLC dba Los C… - Cushman & WakefieldQ4 19

Thompson Valley Towne Center Fort Collins 3,237 Northern Colorado Comm… CBRE -Q3 19

Foothills Mall Fort Collins 3,200 - RE/MAX Commercia… Cushman & WakefieldQ2 19

Foothills Mall Fort Collins 3,070 Lululemon USA, Inc. Open Realty Advisors Cushman & WakefieldQ1 20

Ironwood Plaza Fort Collins/Loveland 3,044 Way To Grow - -Q2 19

Harmony Marketplace Fort Collins 2,965 - - AmCap Properties, Inc.Q1 20

Park Central Fort Collins 2,954 Axe and Ale - Waypoint Real Estate,…Q3 19

Foothills Mall Fort Collins 2,801 Peace, Love, Music LLC Morrow Hill Cushman & WakefieldQ4 19

Harmony School Shops Fort Collins 2,790 Bink’m Company, LLC - Cushman & WakefieldQ2 19

2900 Harvard St Fort Collins 2,785 - - The W.W. Reynolds Co…Q3 19

Cedarwood Plaza Fort Collins 2,740 - - SullivanHayes BrokerageQ3 19

1501 W Elizabeth St Fort Collins 2,700 - - -Q4 19

*Renewal


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RentFort Collins Retail

Annual growth was firmly in the black from 2012-2019.Tenants searching for discounted rents should haveplenty of options in Fort Collins and Loveland. Both haveplenty of product with space for less than $15/SF alongtransportation corridors. More expensive space, at about$25–$30/SF, does exist in the market. Retail propertiesin the immediate vicinity of Colorado State Universityhave posted some of the strongest rent growth in themetro this cycle.

While the market remains tight, rent growth hasmoderated since 2016, following a three-year stretch inwhich rents grew by close to 3% annually. This largelyfollows the national story: Conditions remain tight (andnew supply minimal), but the structural changes broughton by e-commerce are having a visible effect on pricingpower.

MARKET RENT GROWTH (YOY)


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RentFort Collins Retail

MARKET RENT PER SQUARE FOOT


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ConstructionFort Collins Retail

The Colorado Governor's stay-at-home order considersjobs in the construction industry as “essential or critical”,which would allow developers to move forward withprojects if they choose. Deteriorating economicconditions could keep upcoming groundbreakings onhold, and speculative projects slated to deliver in 2020must grapple with the uncertainty of demand. Given theremarkable fluidity of the coronavirus outbreak, it is notout of the realm of possibility that construction jobs couldeventually lose their essential business designation.

Construction was active in Fort Collins in 2019, butprojects were mostly on the smaller side. The biggestproject underway heading into 2020 was CarsonDevelopment's 55,000 SF building for Hobby Lobby onRonald Reagan Blvd. Construction was expected to wrapup by the end of the year.

Most development in the pipeline is concentrated alongthe I-25 near Loveland. Neenan Archistruction andMower Development have a pair of 18,000-20,000square foot buildings underway.

DELIVERIES & DEMOLITIONS

SUBMARKET CONSTRUCTION

Average Building Size

RankUnder Constr

Under Construction Inventory

All Existing{0} 000 Pre-Leased SF (000)SubmarketNo. RankBldgs Pre-Leased %

1 Fort Collins 5 94 18,84678.1% 1 13,54674 1

2 Outer Larimer County 0 - -- - 7,660- -

Totals 5 94 18,84678.1% 12,93274


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Under Construction PropertiesFort Collins Retail

5 94,232 0.5% 78.1%Properties Square Feet Percent of Inventory Preleased

UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROPERTIES

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Property Name/Address Rating Bldg SF Stories Start Complete Developer/Owner

Oct 2019Ronald Reagan Blvd

55,000 1 Aug 2020Carson Development, Inc.

Carson Development, Inc.1

Oct 20194840 Larimer Pky

Ironwood Shops at 253418,700 1 Jul 2020

Mowery Development, LLC

Mowery Development, LLC2

Feb 20203519 E Harmony Rd

9,032 1 Oct 2020-

Constance Marla Dohn3

Jul 20194930 Thompson Pky

7,000 1 Aug 2020Carson Development, Inc.

Drake Real Estate Services, Inc.4

Jul 2019900 E Eisenhower Blvd

Pad A4,500 1 May 2020

-

Jess R Rodriguez5


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SalesFort Collins Retail

Sales volume in 2019 reached its highest point since2012. Pricing grew at a healthy rate near 6%, and caprates tightened slightly.

One of the biggest trades of 2019 was The KroenkeGroup’s acquisition of University Plaza from CIM Groupfor $23.8 million ($348/SF) in October. The trade was forroughly 68,000 SF of buildings within the 261,000 SFcommunity center at 2201 S. College Drive. UniversityPlaza originally delivered in 1953 and underwentrenovations in 2004. The property was fully occupied bytenants such as Whole Foods and Wilbur’s Total

Beverage.

Substantial new development has created opportunitiesfor investors. In October 2018, a 25,700 SF two-buildingretail development constructed in 2017 was acquired byDenver-based Larimer Associates. The firm paid $13.2million for the development (Harmony Commons), or justover $500/SF, and more than twice the metro average.The development is located in a wealthy and largelyresidential area a few miles southeast of Downtown FortCollins.

SALES VOLUME & MARKET SALE PRICE PER SF


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Sales Past 12 MonthsFort Collins Retail

98 6.6% $229 3.8%Sale Comparables Avg. Cap Rate Avg. Price/SF Avg. Vacancy At Sale

SALE COMPARABLE LOCATIONS

SALE COMPARABLES SUMMARY STATISTICS

Sales Attributes Low Average Median High

Sale Price $208,000 $2,523,597 $1,500,000 $23,750,000

Price Per SF $8.93 $229 $238 $1,313

Cap Rate 4.5% 6.6% 6.9% 8.8%

Time Since Sale in Months 0.6 6.3 6.4 12.0

Property Attributes Low Average Median High

Building SF 457 10,504 5,395 105,862

Stories 1 1 1 2

Typical Floor SF 457 9,373 5,016 105,862

Vacancy Rate At Sale 0% 3.8% 0% 100%

Year Built 1867 1972 1979 2020

Star Rating 2.5


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Sales Past 12 MonthsFort Collins Retail

Property Name - Address Rating Yr Built Bldg SF Vacancy Price Price/SF

Property

Sale Date

Sale

Cap Rate

RECENT SIGNIFICANT SALES

-1 2201 S College Ave1963 68,334 0% $23,750,000 $34810/9/2019 -

-2 2321 W Eisenhower Blvd1984 50,098 0% $12,210,000 $2446/28/2019 -

-3 813 E Harmony Rd2000 105,862 0% $11,566,968 $10910/18/2019 -

-2 2321 W Eisenhower Blvd1984 50,098 0% $11,400,000 $2284/2/2020 -

-4 4330 Clydesdale Pky2018 5,636 0% $6,600,000 $1,1717/10/2019 6.0%

-5 5486 N Garfield Ave2018 16,900 0% $6,241,652 $3695/3/2019 5.8%

-6 Harmony Marketplace2000 28,263 0% $4,981,367 $176

1538 E Harmony Rd5/22/2019 -

-7 4920 Thompson Pky2007 5,676 0% $4,660,000 $82112/11/2019 -

-8 4930 Thompson Pky2020 7,000 0% $4,660,000 $66612/12/2019 6.0%

-9 120-130 Mason St1901 20,239 0% $4,600,000 $2278/14/2019 -

-10 Nissan1986 18,021 0% $4,200,000 $233

5811 S College Ave10/29/2019 -

-11 Choice Center II1963 25,103 0% $4,200,000 $167

1611 S College Ave5/31/2019 7.6%

-12 Harmony Marketplace2000 16,100 24.2% $4,136,022 $257

1514 E Harmony Rd5/22/2019 -

-13 Wells Fargo2005 5,498 0% $3,940,000 $717

1412 Hahns Peak Dr10/1/2019 6.0%

-14 Preston Center2008 14,087 0% $3,700,000 $263

3027 E Harmony Rd12/16/2019 -

-15 252 Linden St1867 14,323 48.2% $3,600,000 $2515/15/2019 -

-16 1500 Academy Ct2018 5,016 0% $3,386,163 $67512/12/2019 -

-17 4820 Larimer Pky2018 4,903 0% $3,181,000 $6492/14/2020 5.2%

-18 KinderCare Learning Ce…2000 10,095 0% $3,159,050 $313

4703 Mcmurry Ave5/1/2019 6.9%

-19 1111 Mountain Ave2019 4,067 0% $2,775,000 $68212/16/2019 5.0%


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EconomyFort Collins Retail

The coronavirus pandemic is having an unprecedentedimpact on the national and local economies. Joblessclaims due to shutdowns are skyrocketing as stay-at-home orders force non-essential businesses to shutteracross the state. The health of commercial real estateand the economy virtually hinges on the mitigation effortsto slow the spread of the virus.

Fiscal and monetary stimulus was quickly enacted andshould provide a bridge for many people and businessesimpacted by the crisis, at least in the short-term. TheGovernor’s stay-at-home orders were extended throughApril 26, with the possibility of further extensions. We willbe updating our analysis frequently as more informationbecomes available. The current report largely reflects theenvironment before the pandemic.

While many might consider Fort Collins a collegetown—it is virtually wedded to Colorado StateUniversity—the city's economic strength stems from thediversity of the employers located here. Colorado StateUniversity's influence cannot be disregarded, however. Itplays a vital role in drawing the city's high-payingemployers. Because of the university's resources andresearch facilities, not to mention the constant supply ofeducated graduates, a number of tech companies, andmore than 20 Fortune 500 companies are located in the

metro, including Hewlett-Packard, AMD, and Intel.These firms can take advantage of partnerships with theschool and its research labs, incubating an employeebase already experienced in field work.

Fort Collins has developed a significant craft beerindustry and is home to a number of notable brewers,including New Belgium, Odell, and Black Bottle, not tomention behemoth Annheuser-Busch. This industryniche accounts for a more than $1 billion economicimpact on Larimer County, with almost 3,000 jobs and inthe neighborhood of $175 million in wages.

Population growth remains around twice the nationalaverage, but below the massive influx of residents in2014-2015 (population growth exceeded 2.5% in back-to-back years).

A low cost of living and affordable home prices alsomake the metro attractive to businesses and residents.Historically, employment growth outperforms the nationalaverage, and nearly every industry, except formanufacturing, has surged past its prerecessionemployment peak. The leisure and hospitality andeducation and health services sectors continue to growrapidly, posting some of the strongest growth numbersthis cycle.

FORT COLLINS EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY IN THOUSANDS

NAICS Industry Jobs LQ MarketUS USMarketUSMarket

Current Jobs Current Growth 10 Yr Historical 5 Yr Forecast

-0.38%0.17%1.02%3.74%-0.99%2.79%1.015Manufacturing

0.05%0.66%1.16%2.50%-0.74%0.17%0.928Trade, Transportation and Utilities

0.01%0.82%0.72%1.63%-1.05%-0.75%1.119 Retail Trade

0.33%0.94%1.28%2.23%0.77%1.37%0.77Financial Activities

0.49%1.57%0.11%3.80%1.29%3.79%1.642Government

0.15%0.57%2.89%4.63%0.86%0.25%1.212Natural Resources, Mining and Construction

0.76%0.76%2.15%1.07%2.59%3.47%0.719Education and Health Services

0.61%0.64%2.58%2.06%1.17%4.83%0.821Professional and Business Services

0.30%0.15%0.56%3.17%1.19%7.22%1.03Information

0.99%1.28%2.20%3.34%-2.42%1.99%1.222Leisure and Hospitality

-0.02%1.10%1.02%2.96%0.49%3.58%1.07Other Services

Total Employment 172 1.0 -0.41% -2.62% 2.61% 1.20% 1.49% 0.95%

Source: Oxford Economics

LQ = Location Quotient


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EconomyFort Collins Retail


YEAR OVER YEAR JOB GROWTH

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Current ChangeCurrent Level

Metro U.S.Metro U.S.Demographic Category

10-Year Change

Metro U.S. Metro U.S.

Forecast Change (5 Yrs)

Population 329,310,594358,428 1.4% 0.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1.3% 0.5%

Households 122,106,773142,306 1.3% 0.4% 2.0% 0.7% 1.2% 0.4%

Median Household Income $64,711$74,107 3.2% 3.3% 3.0% 2.6% 2.9% 2.9%

Labor Force 164,149,516208,113 0.6% 0.7% 2.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4%

Unemployment 3.7%2.2% -0.8% -0.1% -0.5% -0.6% - -


POPULATION GROWTH


LABOR FORCE GROWTH INCOME GROWTH


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SubmarketsFort Collins Retail

FORT COLLINS SUBMARKETS


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SubmarketsFort Collins Retail

SUBMARKET INVENTORY

12 Month Deliveries Under Construction

Bldgs SF (000) Percent Rank

Inventory

Bldgs SF (000) Percent RankBldgs SF (000) % Market RankSubmarketNo.

1 Fort Collins 19,168 93.8% 1 5 94 0.5% 11,415 9 146 0.8% 1

2 Outer Larimer County 1,264 6.2% 2 0 - - -165 0 0 0% -

SUBMARKET RENT

Growth

Market Rent

Per SFSubmarketNo.

12 Month Market Rent QTD Annualized Market Rent

RankRank GrowthRank

1 Fort Collins -0.3%1 3.0% 1$19.34 2

2 Outer Larimer County 0.5%2 1.8% 2$15.62 1

SUBMARKET VACANCY & NET ABSORPTION

12 Month Absorption

Rank Construc. Ratio

Vacancy

SF % of InvSF PercentSubmarketNo. Rank

1 Fort Collins 762,477 4.0% 0.2228,986 1.2% 12

2 Outer Larimer County 8,952 0.7% -(1,734) -0.1% 21


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Supply & Demand TrendsFort Collins Retail

OVERALL SUPPLY & DEMAND

Net AbsorptionInventory

% of Inv Construction RatioSF SF Growth % Growth SFYear

2024 201,203 1.0% 1.2%260,541 0.821,048,803

2023 203,013 1.0% 1.5%310,509 0.720,847,600

2022 140,159 0.7% 1.1%237,196 0.620,644,587

2021 11,243 0.1% 0.3%59,279 0.220,504,428

2020 79,127 0.4% 0.5%99,707 0.820,493,185

YTD 692 0% 0.7%148,749 020,414,750

2019 191,036 0.9% 0.2%40,060 4.820,414,058

2018 188,934 0.9% 0.3%57,031 3.320,223,022

2017 634,710 3.3% 3.5%708,470 0.920,034,088

2016 166,937 0.9% 0.9%178,997 0.919,399,378

2015 280,338 1.5% 1.9%358,237 0.819,232,441

2014 134,428 0.7% 2.0%375,401 0.418,952,103

2013 72,356 0.4% 0.5%87,670 0.818,817,675

2012 30,416 0.2% 1.3%236,057 0.118,745,319

2011 152,139 0.8% 1.1%210,662 0.718,714,903

2010 49,108 0.3% 0.7%133,015 0.418,562,764

2009 29,628 0.2% 0.1%17,339 1.718,513,656

2008 1,134,620 6.5% 4.8%895,038 1.318,484,028

MALLS SUPPLY & DEMAND



2024 18,381 0.8% 1.3%28,688 0.62,268,009

2023 18,532 0.8% 1.5%34,702 0.52,249,628

2022 12,818 0.6% 1.1%24,234 0.52,231,096

2021 264 0% 0.2%4,743 0.12,218,278

2020 (658) 0% -1.2%(27,089) -2,218,014

YTD 0 0% -0.6%(12,366) -2,218,672

2019 0 0% -1.1%(24,947) -2,218,672

2018 42,539 2.0% -3.3%(73,436) -2,218,672

2017 14,000 0.6% 6.9%150,150 0.12,176,133

2016 88,658 4.3% 0.3%5,963 14.92,162,133

2015 187,395 9.9% 9.6%198,859 0.92,073,475

2014 7,453 0.4% 1.8%34,130 0.21,886,080

2013 0 0% -1.3%(23,848) -1,878,627

2012 0 0% 2.6%49,278 01,878,627

2011 2,488 0.1% 2.5%46,318 0.11,878,627

2010 0 0% -4.1%(76,498) -1,876,139

2009 10,865 0.6% 1.6%30,590 0.41,876,139

2008 802,320 75.5% 35.7%666,740 1.21,865,274


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POWER CENTER SUPPLY & DEMAND



2024 67,824 2.3% 2.6%79,501 0.93,078,830

2023 68,422 2.3% 2.8%83,269 0.83,011,006

2022 47,348 1.6% 1.6%48,445 1.02,942,584

2021 1,063 0% 0.3%8,008 0.12,895,236

2020 59,499 2.1% 4.1%117,256 0.52,894,173

YTD 0 0% 2.9%81,884 02,834,674

2019 95,000 3.5% -1.8%(51,069) -2,834,674

2018 26,183 1.0% 0.6%15,346 1.72,739,674

2017 469,800 20.9% 15.7%426,869 1.12,713,491

2016 0 0% 0%(337) -2,243,691

2015 0 0% 0.1%1,486 02,243,691

2014 0 0% 0.9%20,657 02,243,691

2013 0 0% 0.1%2,578 02,243,691

2012 0 0% 2.1%46,769 02,243,691

2011 0 0% -0.3%(6,690) -2,243,691

2010 0 0% 0.2%4,502 02,243,691

2009 0 0% 1.1%24,769 02,243,691

2008 11,878 0.5% -1.9%(43,396) -2,243,691

NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER SUPPLY & DEMAND



2024 12,958 0.3% 0.6%33,160 0.45,188,953

2023 13,070 0.3% 1.1%56,040 0.25,175,995

2022 8,969 0.2% 0.9%45,443 0.25,162,925

2021 106 0% 0.2%10,837 05,153,956

2020 (400) 0% 1.4%71,174 -5,153,850

YTD 0 0% 2.0%104,126 05,154,250

2019 0 0% -0.5%(26,000) -5,154,250

2018 6,601 0.1% 0.5%25,580 0.35,154,250

2017 2,238 0% -0.6%(28,546) -5,147,649

2016 39,256 0.8% 1.0%52,991 0.75,145,411

2015 1,831 0% -0.7%(37,331) -5,106,155

2014 168,328 3.4% 3.5%180,260 0.95,104,324

2013 0 0% 0.1%5,881 04,935,996

2012 14,020 0.3% 1.3%64,146 0.24,935,996

2011 152,736 3.2% 2.4%117,217 1.34,921,976

2010 3,843 0.1% 0.5%24,866 0.24,769,240

2009 9,296 0.2% 0.6%27,237 0.34,765,397

2008 223,092 4.9% 6.2%293,682 0.84,756,101


Page 19


STRIP CENTER SUPPLY & DEMAND



2024 25,753 2.5% 2.6%27,357 0.91,039,571

2023 25,985 2.6% 2.7%27,812 0.91,013,818

2022 17,959 1.9% 1.8%17,474 1.0987,833

2021 364 0% 0.3%2,926 0.1969,874

2020 3,588 0.4% -0.7%(7,263) -969,510

YTD 0 0% -0.2%(2,056) -965,922

2019 49,000 5.3% 4.8%46,120 1.1965,922

2018 0 0% 0.4%3,628 0916,922

2017 35,575 4.0% 4.7%43,382 0.8916,922

2016 0 0% -0.7%(6,449) -881,347

2015 0 0% 1.6%13,672 0881,347

2014 0 0% 3.3%29,168 0881,347

2013 7,375 0.8% 4.3%38,185 0.2881,347

2012 0 0% 1.7%14,987 0873,972

2011 0 0% -0.4%(3,113) -873,972

2010 0 0% -0.2%(1,948) -873,972

2009 0 0% -3.4%(29,498) -873,972

2008 0 0% 1.3%10,934 0873,972

GENERAL RETAIL SUPPLY & DEMAND



2024 76,287 0.8% 1.0%91,835 0.89,473,440

2023 77,004 0.8% 1.2%108,686 0.79,397,153

2022 53,065 0.6% 1.1%101,600 0.59,320,149

2021 9,446 0.1% 0.4%32,765 0.39,267,084

2020 17,098 0.2% -0.6%(54,371) -9,257,638

YTD 692 0% -0.2%(22,839) -9,241,232

2019 47,036 0.5% 1.0%95,956 0.59,240,540

2018 113,611 1.3% 0.9%85,913 1.39,193,504

2017 113,097 1.3% 1.3%116,615 1.09,079,893

2016 39,023 0.4% 1.4%126,829 0.38,966,796

2015 91,112 1.0% 2.0%181,551 0.58,927,773

2014 (41,353) -0.5% 1.3%111,186 -8,836,661

2013 64,981 0.7% 0.7%64,874 1.08,878,014

2012 16,396 0.2% 0.7%60,877 0.38,813,033

2011 (3,085) 0% 0.6%56,930 -8,796,637

2010 45,265 0.5% 2.1%182,093 0.28,799,722

2009 9,467 0.1% -0.4%(35,759) -8,754,457

2008 97,330 1.1% -0.4%(32,922) -8,744,990


Page 20

Rent & VacancyFort Collins Retail

OVERALL RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent

Per SF Index % Growth Vs Hist PeakYear

Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2024 119 1.5% 4.9%$19.87 575,702 2.7% -0.3%

2023 117 1.3% 3.4%$19.57 637,701 3.1% -0.6%

2022 115 3.1% 2.1%$19.32 748,406 3.6% -0.5%

2021 112 7.4% -1.0%$18.74 847,774 4.1% -0.2%

2020 104 -7.9% -7.9%$17.44 895,750 4.4% -0.1%

YTD 114 1.0% 1.0%$19.12 767,585 3.8% -0.7%

2019 113 2.5% 0%$18.93 915,642 4.5% 0.7%

2018 110 2.3% -2.4%$18.47 764,666 3.8% 0.6%

2017 108 3.0% -4.7%$18.05 632,763 3.2% -0.5%

2016 105 2.4% -7.4%$17.53 706,523 3.6% -0.1%

2015 102 2.7% -9.6%$17.12 718,583 3.7% -0.5%

2014 100 2.6% -11.9%$16.67 796,482 4.2% -1.3%

2013 97 1.3% -14.1%$16.25 1,037,455 5.5% -0.1%

2012 96 1.6% -15.2%$16.05 1,052,769 5.6% -1.1%

2011 94 -1.1% -16.5%$15.80 1,258,410 6.7% -0.4%

2010 95 -1.7% -15.6%$15.97 1,316,933 7.1% -0.5%

2009 97 -3.0% -14.2%$16.24 1,400,840 7.6% 0.1%

2008 100 0.5% -11.5%$16.75 1,388,551 7.5% 0.9%

MALLS RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent


Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2024 127 1.2% 4.5%$24.50 176,103 7.8% -0.5%

2023 125 0.9% 3.2%$24.20 186,533 8.3% -0.8%

2022 124 2.7% 2.3%$23.98 202,794 9.1% -0.6%

2021 121 7.1% -0.5%$23.34 214,268 9.7% -0.2%

2020 113 -7.0% -7.0%$21.79 218,772 9.9% 1.2%

YTD 124 2.2% 2.2%$23.97 204,660 9.2% 0.6%

2019 121 1.7% 0%$23.44 192,294 8.7% 1.1%

2018 119 5.3% -1.7%$23.05 167,347 7.5% 5.2%

2017 113 6.1% -6.6%$21.89 51,372 2.4% -6.3%

2016 107 1.4% -12.0%$20.63 187,522 8.7% 3.6%

2015 105 2.7% -13.3%$20.34 104,827 5.1% -1.1%

2014 102 6.0% -15.6%$19.80 116,291 6.2% -1.4%

2013 96 2.0% -20.4%$18.67 142,968 7.6% 1.3%

2012 95 0.5% -21.9%$18.30 119,120 6.3% -2.6%

2011 94 -1.9% -22.3%$18.21 168,398 9.0% -2.3%

2010 96 -0.1% -20.8%$18.56 212,228 11.3% 4.1%

2009 96 -4.0% -20.7%$18.58 135,730 7.2% -1.1%

2008 100 -1.9% -17.4%$19.36 155,455 8.3% 6.5%


Page 21


POWER CENTER RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent


Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2024 129 1.5% 6.1%$25.51 118,196 3.8% -0.5%

2023 127 1.3% 4.5%$25.13 130,022 4.3% -0.6%

2022 126 3.2% 3.2%$24.82 145,003 4.9% -0.1%

2021 122 7.5% 0.1%$24.06 146,195 5.0% -0.2%

2020 113 -6.9% -6.9%$22.38 153,155 5.3% -2.1%

YTD 124 2.0% 2.0%$24.52 128,965 4.5% -2.9%

2019 122 3.9% 0%$24.04 210,849 7.4% 5.1%

2018 117 3.8% -3.7%$23.15 64,780 2.4% 0.4%

2017 113 4.6% -7.2%$22.31 53,943 2.0% 1.5%

2016 108 2.9% -11.3%$21.33 11,012 0.5% 0%

2015 105 2.9% -13.8%$20.73 10,675 0.5% -0.1%

2014 102 2.6% -16.2%$20.15 12,161 0.5% -0.9%

2013 99 2.1% -18.3%$19.63 32,818 1.5% -0.1%

2012 97 2.7% -20.0%$19.23 35,396 1.6% -2.1%

2011 95 -1.2% -22.1%$18.73 82,165 3.7% 0.3%

2010 96 -1.3% -21.2%$18.96 75,475 3.4% -0.2%

2009 97 -2.6% -20.1%$19.21 79,977 3.6% -1.1%

2008 100 0.7% -17.9%$19.73 104,746 4.7% 2.5%

NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent


Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2024 121 1.6% 4.6%$19.54 110,804 2.1% -0.4%

2023 119 1.3% 3.0%$19.23 131,434 2.5% -0.8%

2022 117 3.1% 1.6%$18.98 174,809 3.4% -0.7%

2021 114 7.4% -1.5%$18.41 211,551 4.1% -0.2%

2020 106 -8.3% -8.3%$17.14 222,234 4.3% -1.4%

YTD 116 0.6% 0.6%$18.79 189,596 3.7% -2.0%

2019 115 3.2% 0%$18.68 293,722 5.7% 0.5%

2018 112 2.2% -3.1%$18.09 267,722 5.2% -0.4%

2017 109 2.9% -5.2%$17.70 286,701 5.6% 0.6%

2016 106 2.9% -7.9%$17.20 255,917 5.0% -0.3%

2015 103 3.4% -10.6%$16.71 269,652 5.3% 0.8%

2014 100 2.1% -13.5%$16.17 230,490 4.5% -0.4%

2013 98 1.3% -15.2%$15.84 242,422 4.9% -0.1%

2012 96 1.9% -16.3%$15.63 248,303 5.0% -1.0%

2011 95 -0.3% -17.9%$15.34 298,429 6.1% 0.6%

2010 95 -2.1% -17.6%$15.39 262,910 5.5% -0.4%

2009 97 -3.0% -15.8%$15.72 283,933 6.0% -0.4%

2008 100 0.5% -13.2%$16.21 301,874 6.3% -1.9%


Page 22


STRIP CENTER RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent


Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2024 110 1.4% 4.3%$16.32 26,910 2.6% -0.2%

2023 109 1.2% 2.9%$16.09 28,690 2.8% -0.3%

2022 108 3.1% 1.6%$15.89 30,686 3.1% 0%

2021 104 7.5% -1.4%$15.42 30,330 3.1% -0.3%

2020 97 -8.3% -8.3%$14.35 32,896 3.4% 1.1%

YTD 106 0.5% 0.5%$15.72 24,047 2.5% 0.2%

2019 106 1.8% 0%$15.64 21,991 2.3% 0.2%

2018 104 1.5% -1.8%$15.37 19,111 2.1% -0.4%

2017 102 1.7% -3.2%$15.14 22,739 2.5% -1.0%

2016 101 1.3% -4.9%$14.88 30,546 3.5% 0.7%

2015 99 3.7% -6.1%$14.68 24,097 2.7% -1.6%

2014 96 1.2% -9.5%$14.15 37,769 4.3% -3.3%

2013 95 1.1% -10.6%$13.98 66,937 7.6% -3.6%

2012 94 1.0% -11.6%$13.83 97,747 11.2% -1.7%

2011 93 -1.0% -12.4%$13.69 112,734 12.9% 0.4%

2010 94 -2.7% -11.6%$13.83 109,621 12.5% 0.2%

2009 96 -3.8% -9.1%$14.22 107,673 12.3% 3.4%

2008 100 0% -5.5%$14.78 78,175 8.9% -1.3%

GENERAL RETAIL RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent


Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2024 112 1.6% 4.8%$17.55 143,689 1.5% -0.2%

2023 110 1.4% 3.2%$17.27 161,022 1.7% -0.4%

2022 109 3.2% 1.8%$17.04 195,114 2.1% -0.6%

2021 105 7.5% -1.4%$16.51 245,430 2.6% -0.3%

2020 98 -8.3% -8.3%$15.35 268,693 2.9% 0.8%

YTD 107 0.4% 0.4%$16.80 220,317 2.4% 0.3%

2019 107 1.8% 0%$16.74 196,786 2.1% -0.5%

2018 105 0.9% -1.8%$16.44 245,706 2.7% 0.3%

2017 104 1.5% -2.7%$16.29 218,008 2.4% -0.1%

2016 102 2.2% -4.1%$16.05 221,526 2.5% -1.0%

2015 100 2.1% -6.2%$15.70 309,332 3.5% -1.1%

2014 98 2.0% -8.1%$15.39 399,771 4.5% -1.7%

2013 96 0.7% -9.8%$15.09 552,310 6.2% 0%

2012 95 1.3% -10.5%$14.98 552,203 6.3% -0.5%

2011 94 -1.2% -11.7%$14.79 596,684 6.8% -0.7%

2010 95 -1.9% -10.6%$14.97 656,699 7.5% -1.6%

2009 97 -2.8% -8.9%$15.26 793,527 9.1% 0.5%

2008 100 1.2% -6.3%$15.69 748,301 8.6% 1.4%


Page 23

Sale TrendsFort Collins Retail

OVERALL SALES

Completed Transactions (1)

Turnover Avg Price/SFDeals VolumeYear

Market Pricing Trends (2)

Avg Price Price IndexAvg Cap Rate Price/SF Cap Rate

2024 -- - -- 166- $228.62 7.0%

2023 -- - -- 164- $225.76 7.0%

2022 -- - -- 160- $220.81 7.0%

2021 -- - -- 150- $207.61 7.3%

2020 -- - -- 151- $209.05 7.3%

YTD $40.8M25 1.1% $215.57$1,773,889 1687.1% $231.25 6.8%

2019 $182.6M96 4.7% $209.02$2,538,153 1646.4% $226.95 6.8%

2018 $140M110 6.4% $211.85$2,012,082 1506.5% $207.56 7.0%

2017 $110.3M73 2.7% $218.48$1,945,263 1536.7% $211.17 6.9%

2016 $121.9M72 3.9% $194.19$2,493,123 1465.8% $201.47 6.9%

2015 $81.1M89 2.7% $184.48$1,137,353 1436.7% $197.69 6.9%

2014 $139.2M109 8.2% $160.83$1,997,166 1346.4% $184.92 7.2%

2013 $69.6M87 3.3% $131.09$1,027,305 1149.4% $157.97 7.7%

2012 $192.9M90 9.6% $122.41$3,003,132 1107.0% $152.13 7.8%

2011 $29.2M41 1.9% $91.38$805,416 997.5% $136.47 8.3%

2010 $114.6M68 4.4% $146.61$2,088,780 938.4% $127.72 8.6%

2009 $23.8M31 1.1% $116.09$763,722 888.7% $121.69 8.9%

(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period.

(2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.

MALLS SALES





2024 -- - -- 168- $244.44 6.9%

2023 -- - -- 166- $242.14 6.8%

2022 -- - -- 163- $237.68 6.9%

2021 -- - -- 154- $224.33 7.2%

2020 -- - -- 156- $226.70 7.2%

YTD -- - -- 173- $251.61 6.6%

2019 -- - -- 170- $246.99 6.7%

2018 $015 22.0% -- 151- $220.06 7.0%

2017 -- - -- 156- $226.66 6.7%

2016 -- - -- 148- $215.10 6.8%

2015 -- - -- 146- $212.06 6.8%

2014 $013 26.5% -- 137- $199.54 7.0%

2013 -- - -- 115- $167.76 7.6%

2012 $21.9M1 22.2% $52.47$21,888,019 111- $161.94 7.7%

2011 -- - -- 100- $145.23 8.2%

2010 $75.5M15 26.0% $154.59$5,033,333 93- $135.61 8.6%

2009 -- - -- 89- $128.88 8.8%




Page 24


POWER CENTER SALES





2024 -- - -- 171- $247.52 6.7%

2023 -- - -- 169- $244.48 6.7%

2022 -- - -- 165- $239.18 6.7%

2021 -- - -- 155- $224.47 7.0%

2020 -- - -- 156- $225.93 7.0%

YTD -- - -- 173- $250.60 6.5%

2019 $31.3M9 5.8% $212.47$3,916,413 1696.0% $243.68 6.6%

2018 -- - -- 151- $217.87 6.8%

2017 $4.7M1 0.3% $652.78$4,700,000 1545.8% $223.30 6.6%

2016 $3M1 0.3% $483.80$3,006,336 148- $213.35 6.7%

2015 $2M2 0.2% $401.02$1,525,000 1456.1% $209.97 6.7%

2014 $1.9M2 0.4% $230.54$1,290,000 137- $197.49 6.9%

2013 $1.1M2 0.3% $164.94$205,000 114- $165.35 7.5%

2012 $67.3M13 17.9% $167.70$5,180,754 1107.8% $159.56 7.6%

2011 $1.4M1 0.2% $313.85$1,450,000 1008.0% $143.86 8.1%

2010 $1.4M1 0.2% $295.39$1,364,706 938.5% $134.44 8.4%

2009 -- - -- 88- $127.86 8.6%



NEIGHBORHOOD CENTER SALES





2024 -- - -- 174- $235.62 6.9%

2023 -- - -- 171- $232.57 6.9%

2022 -- - -- 168- $227.37 6.9%

2021 -- - -- 158- $213.68 7.2%

2020 -- - -- 159- $215.23 7.2%

YTD $11.4M1 1.0% $227.55$11,400,000 176- $238.45 6.7%

2019 $59.5M12 6.8% $170.88$5,358,000 1727.3% $233.26 6.8%

2018 $63.9M22 5.9% $230.75$3,364,036 1536.9% $207.48 7.1%

2017 $39.3M14 3.9% $197.93$2,806,110 157- $212.39 6.9%

2016 $54.2M12 5.1% $210.21$4,931,463 1505.7% $203.11 6.9%

2015 $5.4M3 0.9% $394.36$2,692,289 148- $200.31 6.9%

2014 $72.2M13 9.1% $178.10$8,023,111 1397.1% $188.16 7.1%

2013 $11.2M14 2.8% $117.80$1,200,011 115- $156.25 7.7%

2012 $49.4M17 6.8% $213.94$4,936,698 1116.8% $150.01 7.9%

2011 $590.1K3 0.6% $58.20$295,050 99- $134.74 8.3%

2010 $11.5M6 2.2% $163.43$2,867,138 93- $126.10 8.7%

2009 -- - -- 89- $120.09 9.0%




Page 25


STRIP CENTER SALES





2024 -- - -- 152- $201.50 7.4%

2023 -- - -- 150- $199.14 7.4%

2022 -- - -- 147- $194.96 7.4%

2021 -- - -- 139- $183.68 7.7%

2020 -- - -- 139- $184.88 7.7%

YTD $4.9M3 4.1% $122.06$1,626,319 154- $203.74 7.2%

2019 $5.1M11 6.0% $157.30$2,331,000 1537.6% $202.22 7.2%

2018 $17M5 4.0% $460.54$4,131,875 1445.0% $191.09 7.3%

2017 $3.8M4 4.2% $96.83$1,183,333 14615.0% $193.90 7.1%

2016 $1.1M9 3.8% $114.46$380,815 136- $180.41 7.3%

2015 $6.3M8 6.8% $113.68$1,820,000 1357.7% $179.57 7.3%

2014 $3.9M9 11.4% $69.08$886,073 1257.4% $166.24 7.6%

2013 $1.9M6 3.4% $148.34$405,000 1147.5% $151.70 7.9%

2012 $5.9M7 4.3% $189.41$2,683,150 1118.0% $147.31 8.0%

2011 $1.8M1 0.8% $272.62$1,850,000 99- $131.24 8.5%

2010 $2.2M6 2.3% $108.25$1,000,000 93- $123.44 8.8%

2009 $196.9K1 0.1% $218.78- 889.2% $116.99 9.0%



GENERAL RETAIL SALES





2024 -- - -- 160- $217.91 7.1%

2023 -- - -- 158- $215.03 7.1%

2022 -- - -- 155- $210.14 7.1%

2021 -- - -- 145- $197.50 7.5%

2020 -- - -- 146- $198.68 7.5%

YTD $24.5M21 1.4% $247.20$1,290,552 1617.1% $219.26 6.9%

2019 $86.7M64 4.2% $250.76$1,688,560 1596.3% $216.06 7.0%

2018 $59.1M68 5.1% $170.38$1,269,336 1496.4% $203.13 7.1%

2017 $62.6M54 3.2% $240.23$1,606,863 1515.8% $204.83 6.9%

2016 $63.6M50 5.1% $179.55$1,772,476 1445.9% $195.81 7.0%

2015 $67.4M76 4.6% $184.54$1,050,705 1406.4% $190.88 7.0%

2014 $61.3M72 5.4% $154.77$1,104,766 1314.0% $177.67 7.3%

2013 $55.5M65 5.1% $133.04$1,025,272 11410.3% $154.94 7.8%

2012 $48.4M52 6.9% $97.72$1,269,194 1106.8% $149.16 7.9%

2011 $25.3M36 3.6% $84.94$784,528 987.0% $133.58 8.4%

2010 $24.1M40 2.3% $121.40$710,935 928.3% $125.08 8.7%

2009 $23.6M30 2.3% $115.64$763,722 888.5% $119.43 8.9%




Page 26

fort collins q1 2020 - unique properties · 4/22/2020 · the foundry fort collins 3,740 q4 19...

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