fort collins q1 2020 - unique properties · 2020. 4. 22. · 120 ne frontage rd fort...

FORT COLLINS

MARKET REPORTINDUSTRIAL

Q1 2020

303.321.5888 UNIQUEPROP.COM

FULL-SERVICE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SOLUTIONSPrivately-Owned and Operated for Over 40 Years

INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT

Market Key Statistics 2

Leasing 3

Rent 8

Construction 10

Under Construction Properties 11

Sales 13

Sales Past 12 Months 14

Economy 16

Market Submarkets 18

Supply & Demand Trends 20

Rent & Vacancy 22

Sale Trends 24

Fort Collins Industrial

4/22/2020Copyrighted report licensed to Unique Properties, Inc. - 1130503.

OverviewFort Collins Industrial

143 K 189 K 5.6% 2.6%12 Mo Deliveries in SF 12 Mo Net Absorption in SF Vacancy Rate 12 Mo Rent Growth

The coronavirus pandemic is having an unprecedentedimpact on the national and local economies. Joblessclaims due to shutdowns are skyrocketing as stay-at-home orders force non-essential businesses to shutteracross the state. The health of commercial real estateand the economy virtually hinges on the mitigation effortsto slow the spread of the virus.

Fiscal and monetary stimulus was quickly enacted andshould provide a bridge for many people and businessesimpacted by the crisis, at least in the short-term. TheGovernor's stay-at-home orders were extended throughApril 26, with the possibility of further extensions. We willbe updating our analysis frequently as more informationbecomes available. The current report largely reflects theenvironment before the pandemic.

At the same time, the e-commerce and 3PLs could seean uptick in demand as more residents ship goods totheir homes. We will be updating our analysis as moreinformation becomes available. Prior to the coronavirusoutbreak, the metro had strong economic momentum,and the current report largely reflects the environmentbefore the pandemic.

Although Fort Collins is supported by several highwaysproviding ready access across the region, the large scaledistribution market is small here. Flex space makes up30% of the inventory, which is three times the nationalaverage. Similarly, flex space makes up nearly 50% of

the stock in nearby Boulder, and both metros have aroster of high tech R&D firms that drive demand for flexspace.

Warehouse and distribution (logistics) vacanciesremained tight moving into 2020. The flex vacancy rateremains somewhat elevated. The bulk of the vacant flexspace in the market is at the revamped four-building811,000 SF Rocky Mountain Center for Innovation andTechnology. Encouragingly, Lightning Systems signed onfor another 97,000 SF in December 2019 after leasing45,000 SF in 17Q2. Rocky Mountain Center will serve asa new headquarters, and the company represents thefirst major leases signed at the campus since Agilentvacated nearly a decade ago.

After years of exceptionally tight conditions earlier in thecycle, developers ramped up construction activity overthe past five years. However, entering 2020 the pipelinehas noticeably cooled off.

Mirroring the national trend, rent growth decelerated in2019 and ended the year slightly below the nationalaverage.

Investors were more bullish than ever on Fort Collins'industrial market in 2019. Sales volume was near $120million, a record high. Pricing continued to climbmodestly, while cap rates remained relatively flat on theyear.

KEY INDICATORS

Market RentVacancy RateRBACurrent Quarter Availability RateNet Absorption

SFDeliveries SF

UnderConstruction

$9.162.5%13,676,685Logistics 5.1% (16,648) 0 266,857

$9.763.4%3,160,078Specialized Industrial 5.1% (27,420) 0 0

$11.5213.6%6,150,566Flex 16.9% (19,025) 15,000 82,000

$9.875.6%22,987,329Market 8.3% (63,093) 15,000 348,857

ForecastAverage

HistoricalAverage

12 MonthAnnual Trends Peak When Trough When

5.7%6.5%-0.2%Vacancy Change (YOY) 10.4% 2010 Q2 2.2% 1999 Q4

240,166236,299189 KNet Absorption SF 907,332 2004 Q4 (914,086) 2009 Q1

241,474290,783143 KDeliveries SF 715,091 2001 Q4 0 2014 Q1

1.7%1.3%2.6%Rent Growth 5.7% 2018 Q4 -4.2% 2003 Q1

N/A$44.5M$108 MSales Volume $137.7M 2019 Q4 $0 2004 Q1


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LeasingFort Collins Industrial

The warehouse and distribution (logistics) market in FortCollins is exceptionally tight heading into 2020. Thevacancy rate for this subset of the industrial marketremains steady despite an uptick in deliveries.

The flex vacancy rate has been elevated in the metrosince Agilent vacated its four-building 811,000 SFcampus about ten years ago. The campus has been re-envisioned as the Rocky Mountain Center for Innovationand Tech, intent on attracting high tech firms. In 2017,the campus secured its first major lease since Agilentvacated the space: Lightning Systems signed on for45,000 SF, and another 97,000 SF in December 2019.The space will house its new corporate headquarters.

Fort Collins has a flex-to-industrial ratio that is roughlythree times the national average, with demand for flexspace stemming from high-tech sectors, including thegreen energy sector. Berken Energy, which designsthermoelectric generating (TEG) products, renewed for23,000 SF at 2400 Midpoint Dr in February 2018 on asix-year lease. ETM Electromatic, which produces high-tech electronics products, signed on for 5,000 SF inLoveland in March 2018. While marijuana cultivatorstypically lease smaller warehouse spaces, one of thelarger new flex leases came from Mile High Labs, whichmarkets itself as an innovator in CBD concentratesextraction. In 17Q3, The firm signed a seven-year leasefor 17,600 SF at 697 N Denver Ave in Loveland, justmonths after that space had come on the market.

Expansions of local firms have also driven demand. InNovember 2018, Tharp Cabinet Company acquired the170,000 SF building at 380 W 37th Street for $6.9million. The firm will occupy about 110,000 SF at thebuilding, with the remaining space put up for lease

(about 40,000 SF of warehouse and 20,000 SF of officespace). Tharp Cabinet had previously operated out of a61,000 SF building at 1246 N Denver Avenue.

Fort Collins is a well-educated metro supported by thepresence of Colorado State University, with more than30,000 students and 7,000 employees. The heavyconcentration of well-educated graduates is one reasonthat Fort Collins’s economy is more influenced byintellectual capital than by industrial activity. Geographicconstraints in the western expanse of the Fort Collinsmarket result in industrial inventory clustering in a tightcorridor along I-25 between the cities of Fort Collins andLoveland. Highways branching off through Livermore inthe north and Greeley to the east provide ready channelsfor local distribution from this Northern Colorado metro.

Almost 30 years ago, in 1990, Wal-Mart planted roots inthe metro when it took occupancy of it’s more than 1.1million SF distribution facility in Loveland. It was Wal-Mart’s first distribution center in the western UnitedStates and north-south and east-west arterial highwayaccess was a significant factor in the company choosingthis location to ship freight to its western stores. Thecenter accounts for nearly half of Fort Collins's largescale logistics inventory. Only one other logistics tenant,Intel, claims a footprint of at least 200,000 SF.

Several brewing companies, from Odell Brewing, andAnheuser Busch (which operates a more than one millionSF light manufacturing facility in Fort Collins), to HighCountry Beverage, have a presence in Fort Collins. HighCountry moved into its new 146,000 SF facility inJohnstown in 2017, leaving behind its former space nearthe Fort Collins-Loveland Municipal Airport for theintersection of I-25 and US 34, an area known as 2534.


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NET ABSORPTION, NET DELIVERIES & VACANCY

VACANCY RATE


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AVAILABILITY RATE


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12 MONTH NET ABSORPTION SF IN SELECTED BUILDINGS

3rd QtrBuilding Name/Address Submarket Building SF Vacant SF

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 4th Qtr 12 Month

Net Absoption SF

Fort Collins/Loveland… 122,807 0 0 0 0 0 122,807Centerra Industrial

Fort Collins/Loveland… 142,386 0 0 0 0 0 97,386Rocky Mtn Ctr for Innovation & T…

Fort Collins/Loveland… 78,624 0 0 0 0 0 32,149Great Colorado Marketplace

Fort Collins/Loveland… 37,993 8,915 37,993 (8,915) 0 0 29,078Oakridge Business Park

Fort Collins/Loveland… 37,800 0 0 0 0 0 28,6615802 Byrd Dr

Fort Collins/Loveland… 61,225 0 0 0 0 0 22,747Distribution Warehouse

Fort Collins/Loveland… 50,000 25,000 0 0 0 0 18,9563867 Ronald Reagan Blvd

Fort Collins/Loveland… 13,000 0 13,000 0 0 0 13,000Four Seasons Garages-Building B

Fort Collins/Loveland… 43,500 22,484 (7,200) 0 0 0 12,3731331 Red Cedar Cir

Fort Collins/Loveland… 12,112 0 0 0 0 0 12,1126215 Aviation Dr

Fort Collins/Loveland… 11,520 0 11,520 0 0 0 11,520Four Seasons Garages Building-A

Fort Collins/Loveland… 47,852 0 0 0 0 0 11,373Seven Lakes Business Park

Fort Collins/Loveland… 13,269 0 0 0 0 0 10,0617221 E US Highway 34

Fort Collins/Loveland… 10,000 0 10,000 0 0 0 10,000Four Seasons Garages-Building C

Fort Collins/Loveland… 20,000 0 0 0 0 0 8,872Hach Industrial Bldg

Fort Collins/Loveland… 7,500 0 0 0 0 0 7,500133 Commerce Dr

Fort Collins/Loveland… 131,000 0 0 0 0 0 7,2854150 Ronald Reagan Blvd

840,588 56,399 65,313 (8,915) 0 0 455,880Subtotal Primary Competitors

22,146,741 1,233,104 (2,704) (54,178) 0 0 (267,264)Remaining Fort Collins Market

22,987,329 1,289,503 62,609 (63,093) 0 0 188,616Total Fort Collins Market


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TOP INDUSTRIAL LEASES PAST 12 MONTHS

Building Name/Address Submarket Leased SF Tenant Name Tenant Rep Company Leasing Rep CompanyQtr

4555 E 37TH St Fort Collins/Loveland 122,807 Amazon - C3 Commercial;CBREQ3 19

120 NE Frontage Rd Fort Collins/Loveland 53,828 Cactus Wellhead, LLC Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield;…Q3 19

1001 Buckingham St Fort Collins/Loveland 50,680 Woodward Corporation CBRE SVN l Denver Commer…Q3 19

4515-4525 Viking Way Fort Collins/Loveland 25,757 - - C3 Commercial;CBREQ4 19

5802 Byrd Dr Fort Collins/Loveland 18,900 - - CBREQ2 19

253 42nd St SW Fort Collins/Loveland 16,404 - - CBREQ2 20

1140 N Denver Ave Fort Collins/Loveland 16,250 - - CBREQ3 19

5009 Fossil Blvd Fort Collins/Loveland 14,600 - Cushman & Wakefield CBREQ3 19

8775 Bonfire Dr Outlying Larimer Cnty 14,400 - - The Group, Inc.Q1 20

1331 Red Cedar Cir Fort Collins/Loveland 14,400 SonEX Labs LLC - NAI AffinityQ3 19


301 Air Park Dr Fort Collins/Loveland 12,032 - - CBREQ1 20

227-231 S Link Ln Fort Collins/Loveland 11,200 - - Charles NewcombQ4 19

729 SE 8th St Fort Collins/Loveland 10,822 - - CBREQ1 20

227-231 S Link Ln Fort Collins/Loveland 10,800 - - Charles NewcombQ1 20

1241 Des Moines Ave Fort Collins/Loveland 9,180 - - CBREQ2 19

241 12th St SE Fort Collins/Loveland 8,773 Calco Concrete Pumping - Realtec Commercial R…Q1 20

528 N Link Ln Fort Collins/Loveland 7,500 - - C3 CommercialQ3 19

133 Commerce Dr Fort Collins/Loveland 7,500 Providence Energy Services - Spirit Unlimited, LLCQ3 19

4000 Patton Ave Fort Collins/Loveland 7,200 Trenchless Rental Solutio… SVN l Denver Com… Cushman & WakefieldQ1 20

1331 Red Cedar Cir Fort Collins/Loveland 7,200 Qwikway Dent Inc. - NAI AffinityQ3 19

750-780 N 2nd St Fort Collins/Loveland 6,200 - - Todd KinzleQ4 19

2601 Riverbend Ct Fort Collins/Loveland 6,000 Fastenal Cushman & Wakefield The W.W. Reynolds Co…Q4 19

319 S Link Ln Fort Collins/Loveland 5,852 Hail Co - David LundQ1 20

6771-6775 E 45th St Fort Collins/Loveland 5,720 Keystone Automotive Indu… NAI Affinity;SDS Re… Realtec Commercial R…Q4 19

729 SE 8th St Fort Collins/Loveland 5,541 - - CBREQ1 20

219 N Timberline Rd Fort Collins/Loveland 5,000 - - CBREQ3 19


191 E 71st St Fort Collins/Loveland 4,800 LeafFilter North, LLC CBRE Cushman & WakefieldQ4 19

7345 Greendale Rd Fort Collins/Loveland 4,750 Epic Lift Systems, LLC Modern Real Estate Cushman & WakefieldQ1 20

5801-5809 Wright Dr Fort Collins/Loveland 4,582 Neota Products Solutions,… - Cushman & WakefieldQ4 19

5616 S College Ave Fort Collins/Loveland 3,986 Nex-Gen Exteriors Inc - Cushman & WakefieldQ1 20

5838 Byrd Dr Fort Collins/Loveland 3,600 C2 Services - Realtec Commercial R…Q1 20

418 S Summit View Dr Fort Collins/Loveland 3,440 - - CBREQ2 19

3665 Canal Dr Fort Collins/Loveland 2,856 Denovo CrossFit - Cushman & WakefieldQ2 19

1943 E Lincoln Ave Fort Collins/Loveland 2,500 Lost Scout, LLC CBRE Cushman & WakefieldQ2 19

404-408 W 67th St Fort Collins/Loveland 2,475 Rocky Mountain Custom… - LC Real Estate Group…Q4 19

6556 Buttercup Dr Outlying Larimer Cnty 2,450 Cartel Drilling, LLC - Cushman & WakefieldQ2 19

535-579 N Denver Ave Fort Collins/Loveland 2,400 Gold Standard Food Group Pro Realty, Inc. NAI AffinityQ3 19

2649 E Mulberry St Fort Collins/Loveland 2,400 Forge at NoCo, LLC Waypoint Real Estat… Cushman & WakefieldQ4 19

*Renewal


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RentFort Collins Industrial

Mirroring the national trend, rent growth noticeablydeteriorated in 2019 following a strong 2018. Elevatedlevels of construction could also be playing a role.

Most of the pipeline is comprised of smaller warehouses(often with flexible build-out options) in the 10,000 to25,000 SF range. Roughly two-thirds of thesedevelopments are speculative and rents at these projectsare generally running for $11 to $14/SF triple-net.

Recent larger scale warehouse development has

essentially been limited to additions at McWhinney'sCenterra Industrial Campus. Building one, an 84,000 SFwarehouse that delivered in 2016, had initial asking rentsof $9.00/SF triple-net. Building two, a second 84,000 SFwarehouse that delivered in 18Q1, had initial rents of$9.75. Both of those projects leased-up within months ofdelivering, and a third 123,000 SF warehouse deliveredin late 2018, with asking rents starting at $10.00/SF.Developers appeared to be successfully pushing theenvelope on warehouse rents in past years, but thependulum started to swing the other way in 2019.

MARKET RENT GROWTH (YOY)


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RentFort Collins Industrial

MARKET RENT PER SQUARE FOOT


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ConstructionFort Collins Industrial

The Colorado Governor's stay-at-home order considersjobs in the construction industry as “essential or critical”,which would allow developers to move forward withprojects if they choose. Deteriorating economicconditions could keep upcoming groundbreakings onhold, and speculative projects slated to deliver in 2020must grapple with the uncertainty of demand. Given theremarkable fluidity of the coronavirus outbreak, it is notout of the realm of possibility that construction jobs couldeventually lose their essential business designation.

While the total amount of industrial space underway isbelow recent peak, the amount of speculativedevelopment was recently as high as it has beenthroughout the current cycle. About 70% of projects thathave delivered since 2018 or that are currently underway

were at least partially speculative.

One of the largest recent spec development was a123,000-SF warehouse constructed McWhinney at theCenterra Industrial campus, its third and largest projectat the campus this cycle to-date. McWhinney brokeground on the building in early 2018 and wrapped upconstruction by the end of the year.

But most of the speculative projects underway aresmaller in nature. Virtually all of the warehouse and flexbuildings currently underway are in the 10,000 SF to25,000 SF range, and combined these buildingsrepresent about half of the available under constructionspace (the third building at Centerra represents the otherhalf).

DELIVERIES & DEMOLITIONS

SUBMARKET CONSTRUCTION

Average Building Size

RankUnder Constr

Under Construction Inventory

All Existing{0} 000 Pre-Leased SF (000)SubmarketNo. RankBldgs Pre-Leased %

1 Fort Collins/Loveland 8 329 41,1079.9% 1 22,51533 1

2 Outlying Larimer Cnty 1 20 20,0000% 2 35,1430 2

Totals 9 349 38,7629.3% 23,24333


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Under Construction PropertiesFort Collins Industrial

9 348,857 2.1% 9.3%Properties Square Feet Percent of Inventory Preleased

UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROPERTIES

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Property Name/Address Rating Bldg SF Stories Start Complete Developer/Owner

Jun 20194531-4545 Viking Way

Building 5122,807 1 Jun 2020

McWhinney

McWhinney1

Mar 20204515-4525 Viking Way

Building 697,050 - Mar 2021

McWhinney

McWhinney2

May 20197292 Greenridge Rd

30,000 2 Jun 2020-

Schuman Companies3

Jun 20206370 Byrd Dr

Building B21,000 1 Nov 2020

-

Evergreen Industrial4

Jan 20206557 Buttercup Dr

Building 520,000 1 Dec 2020

-

-5

Sep 2019500 W 71st St

ProSource17,000 1 May 2020

-

-6

Oct 20197151 N Franklin Ave

Building A15,000 1 Jul 2020

-

-7


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Under Construction PropertiesFort Collins Industrial

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Property Name/Address Rating Bldg SF Stories Start Complete Developer/Owner

Mar 20204015 John Deere Dr

15,000 1 Oct 2020-

Johnson Storage & Moving Comp…8

Mar 2019331 Hickory St

11,000 1 May 2020-

Charles Meserlian9


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SalesFort Collins Industrial

Investors were more bullish than ever on Fort Collins’industrial market in 2019. Sales volume was near $120million, a record high. Pricing continued to climbmodestly, while cap rates remained relatively flat on theyear.

The biggest trade of 2019 closed just before the end ofthe year. Boston-based STAG Industrial acquired 4150Ronald Reagan Blvd from Minnesota-based UnitedProperties for approximately $16 million ($122/SF) inDecember. The seller delivered the 131,000 SF building

earlier in 2019. The property was fully leased at the timeof sale to an unreported tenant.

Another coastal firm picked up a recently renovatedasset. In October 2019, Los Angeles-based MonomoyProperties REIT acquired 5100 Boyd Lake Ave fromHouston-based Tri Point Oil & Gas Production forapproximately $10.3 million ($118/SF). The property wasfully leased to Leed Fabrication Service at the time ofsale. The property underwent significant renovationswhich completed in 2014, shortly before it sold in 2016.

SALES VOLUME & MARKET SALE PRICE PER SF


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Sales Past 12 MonthsFort Collins Industrial

69 7.2% $118 9.9%Sale Comparables Avg. Cap Rate Avg. Price/SF Avg. Vacancy At Sale

SALE COMPARABLE LOCATIONS

SALE COMPARABLES SUMMARY STATISTICS

Sales Attributes Low Average Median High

Sale Price $100,000 $2,827,595 $1,800,000 $15,749,000

Price Per SF $4.83 $118 $139 $538

Cap Rate 5.9% 7.2% 7.1% 8.5%

Time Since Sale in Months 0.2 6.4 6.2 11.8

Property Attributes Low Average Median High

Building SF 2,260 21,250 13,000 131,000

Ceiling Height 10' 19'2" 17' 40'

Docks 0 1 0 6

Vacancy Rate At Sale 0% 9.9% 0% 100%

Year Built 1891 1989 1987 2020

Star Rating 2.1


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Sales Past 12 MonthsFort Collins Industrial

Property Name - Address Rating Yr Built Bldg SF Vacancy Price Price/SF

Property

Sale Date

Sale

Cap Rate

RECENT SIGNIFICANT SALES

-14150 Ronald Reagan Blvd

2019 131,000 0% $15,749,000 $12012/18/2019 -

-25100 Boyd Lake Ave

1976 87,110 0% $10,250,000 $11810/9/2019 -

-3Bldg 3

2005 37,993 0% $6,700,000 $1764862 Innovation Dr

2/27/2020 -

-3Bldg 3

2005 37,993 100% $6,458,810 $1704862 Innovation Dr

12/31/2019 -

-41600 Prospect Park Way

1984 26,132 0% $6,300,000 $24110/21/2019 6.1%

-5RV Boatel

2005 78,624 0% $4,950,000 $634700 Marketplace Dr

5/28/2019 -

-62330 E Prospect Rd

1982 47,852 0% $4,750,000 $995/8/2019 -

-7Fort Collins Brewery

2010 30,921 0% $4,700,000 $1521020 E Lincoln Ave

7/2/2019 -

-8B & J Self Storage

2001 35,720 0% $3,964,000 $111217 W County Road 10 E

12/27/2019 5.9%

-93951 MacArthur Ave

2004 23,625 0% $3,335,000 $1417/26/2019 6.5%

-101716 Heath Pky

1976 20,970 0% $3,250,000 $15512/6/2019 7.1%

-117850 S County Road 5

2006 35,897 0% $3,100,000 $8610/25/2019 -

-12101 E Lincoln Ave

1962 11,193 0% $2,305,000 $20610/3/2019 -

-131531 E 11th St

1986 22,235 0% $2,280,000 $1033/4/2020 8.4%

-14300 Lincoln Ct

1987 18,730 0% $1,900,000 $1015/6/2019 -

-15Lot 1

2015 11,400 0% $1,850,000 $1624738 Marketplace Dr

10/9/2019 -

-16401 W Hickory St

1985 18,492 0% $1,811,000 $983/30/2020 -

-17170 SW 2nd St

1975 61,480 0% $1,800,000 $297/31/2019 8.5%

-18348 N Jefferson St

1891 5,182 0% $1,700,000 $3284/15/2020 -

-19521 N Link Ln

1984 13,742 0% $1,500,000 $10910/31/2019 -


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EconomyFort Collins Industrial

The coronavirus pandemic is having an unprecedentedimpact on the national and local economies. Joblessclaims due to shutdowns are skyrocketing as stay-at-home orders force non-essential businesses to shutteracross the state. The health of commercial real estateand the economy virtually hinges on the mitigation effortsto slow the spread of the virus.

Fiscal and monetary stimulus was quickly enacted andshould provide a bridge for many people and businessesimpacted by the crisis, at least in the short-term. TheGovernor’s stay-at-home orders were extended throughApril 26, with the possibility of further extensions. We willbe updating our analysis frequently as more informationbecomes available. The current report largely reflects theenvironment before the pandemic.

While many might consider Fort Collins a collegetown—it is virtually wedded to Colorado StateUniversity—the city's economic strength stems from thediversity of the employers located here. Colorado StateUniversity's influence cannot be disregarded, however. Itplays a vital role in drawing the city's high-payingemployers. Because of the university's resources andresearch facilities, not to mention the constant supply ofeducated graduates, a number of tech companies, andmore than 20 Fortune 500 companies are located in the

metro, including Hewlett-Packard, AMD, and Intel.These firms can take advantage of partnerships with theschool and its research labs, incubating an employeebase already experienced in field work.

Fort Collins has developed a significant craft beerindustry and is home to a number of notable brewers,including New Belgium, Odell, and Black Bottle, not tomention behemoth Annheuser-Busch. This industryniche accounts for a more than $1 billion economicimpact on Larimer County, with almost 3,000 jobs and inthe neighborhood of $175 million in wages.

Population growth remains around twice the nationalaverage, but below the massive influx of residents in2014-2015 (population growth exceeded 2.5% in back-to-back years).

A low cost of living and affordable home prices alsomake the metro attractive to businesses and residents.Historically, employment growth outperforms the nationalaverage, and nearly every industry, except formanufacturing, has surged past its prerecessionemployment peak. The leisure and hospitality andeducation and health services sectors continue to growrapidly, posting some of the strongest growth numbersthis cycle.

FORT COLLINS EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY IN THOUSANDS

NAICS Industry Jobs LQ MarketUS USMarketUSMarket

Current Jobs Current Growth 10 Yr Historical 5 Yr Forecast

-0.38%0.17%1.02%3.74%-0.99%2.79%1.015Manufacturing

0.05%0.66%1.16%2.50%-0.74%0.17%0.928Trade, Transportation and Utilities

0.01%0.82%0.72%1.63%-1.05%-0.75%1.119 Retail Trade

0.33%0.94%1.28%2.23%0.77%1.37%0.77Financial Activities

0.49%1.57%0.11%3.80%1.29%3.79%1.642Government

0.15%0.57%2.89%4.63%0.86%0.25%1.212Natural Resources, Mining and Construction

0.76%0.76%2.15%1.07%2.59%3.47%0.719Education and Health Services

0.61%0.64%2.58%2.06%1.17%4.83%0.821Professional and Business Services

0.30%0.15%0.56%3.17%1.19%7.22%1.03Information

0.99%1.28%2.20%3.34%-2.42%1.99%1.222Leisure and Hospitality

-0.02%1.10%1.02%2.96%0.49%3.58%1.07Other Services

Total Employment 172 1.0 -0.41% -2.62% 2.61% 1.20% 1.49% 0.95%

Source: Oxford Economics

LQ = Location Quotient


Page 16

EconomyFort Collins Industrial


YEAR OVER YEAR JOB GROWTH

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

Current ChangeCurrent Level

Metro U.S.Metro U.S.Demographic Category

10-Year Change

Metro U.S. Metro U.S.

Forecast Change (5 Yrs)

Population 329,310,594358,428 1.4% 0.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1.3% 0.5%

Households 122,106,773142,306 1.3% 0.4% 2.0% 0.7% 1.2% 0.4%

Median Household Income $64,711$74,107 3.2% 3.3% 3.0% 2.6% 2.9% 2.9%

Labor Force 164,149,516208,113 0.6% 0.7% 2.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4%

Unemployment 3.7%2.2% -0.8% -0.1% -0.5% -0.6% - -


POPULATION GROWTH


LABOR FORCE GROWTH INCOME GROWTH


Page 17

SubmarketsFort Collins Industrial

FORT COLLINS SUBMARKETS


Page 18

SubmarketsFort Collins Industrial

SUBMARKET INVENTORY

12 Month Deliveries Under Construction

Bldgs SF (000) Percent Rank

Inventory

Bldgs SF (000) Percent RankBldgs SF (000) % Market RankSubmarketNo.

1 Fort Collins/Loveland 20,984 91.3% 1 8 329 1.6% 1932 8 122 0.6% 1

2 Outlying Larimer Cnty 2,003 8.7% 2 1 20 1.0% 257 2 21 1.1% 2

SUBMARKET RENT

Growth

Market Rent

Per SFSubmarketNo.

12 Month Market Rent QTD Annualized Market Rent

RankRank GrowthRank

1 Fort Collins/Loveland 0.2%1 2.6% 1$9.97 1

2 Outlying Larimer Cnty 0%2 2.1% 2$8.81 2

SUBMARKET VACANCY & NET ABSORPTION

12 Month Absorption

Rank Construc. Ratio

Vacancy

SF % of InvSF PercentSubmarketNo. Rank

1 Fort Collins/Loveland 1,262,801 6.0% 0.3186,839 0.9% 12

2 Outlying Larimer Cnty 26,702 1.3% 8.11,778 0.1% 21


Page 19

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Supply & Demand TrendsFort Collins Industrial

OVERALL SUPPLY & DEMAND

Net AbsorptionInventory

% of Inv Construction RatioSF SF Growth % Growth SFYear

2024 271,089 1.1% 1.5%362,049 0.724,012,132

2023 271,714 1.2% 1.8%420,916 0.623,741,043

2022 178,572 0.8% 1.3%294,976 0.623,469,329

2021 125,604 0.5% 0.8%177,933 0.723,290,757

2020 230,944 1.0% -0.3%(79,849) -23,165,153

YTD 53,120 0.2% 0%(484) -22,987,329

2019 325,212 1.4% 2.3%519,815 0.622,934,209

2018 434,892 2.0% 1.7%375,400 1.222,608,997

2017 373,262 1.7% 2.5%563,807 0.722,174,105

2016 432,348 2.0% 1.4%311,139 1.421,800,843

2015 4,932 0% -1.0%(204,702) -21,368,495

2014 324,977 1.5% 2.4%504,839 0.621,363,563

2013 169,265 0.8% 1.4%293,181 0.621,038,586

2012 0 0% 1.4%285,602 020,869,321

2011 35,911 0.2% 0.6%115,607 0.320,869,321

2010 96,333 0.5% 1.0%215,854 0.420,833,410

2009 13,560 0.1% -1.5%(318,241) -20,737,077

2008 166,605 0.8% -3.7%(769,543) -20,723,517

SPECIALIZED INDUSTRIAL SUPPLY & DEMAND



2024 22,342 0.7% 1.1%35,803 0.63,215,818

2023 22,410 0.7% 1.4%44,721 0.53,193,476

2022 14,727 0.5% 0.8%26,358 0.63,171,066

2021 (2,267) -0.1% -0.3%(8,121) -3,156,339

2020 (1,472) 0% -1.6%(51,798) -3,158,606

YTD 0 0% -0.7%(20,617) -3,160,078

2019 0 0% 1.7%52,158 03,160,078

2018 176,890 5.9% 11.2%353,023 0.53,160,078

2017 119,108 4.2% 5.3%157,875 0.82,983,188

2016 302,257 11.8% 11.8%338,931 0.92,864,080

2015 16,250 0.6% -11.8%(301,512) -2,561,823

2014 0 0% 0.7%16,563 02,545,573

2013 (2,360) -0.1% 1.4%35,614 -2,545,573

2012 0 0% -0.1%(2,663) -2,547,933

2011 0 0% -1.6%(39,900) -2,547,933

2010 20,985 0.8% 1.9%47,447 0.42,547,933

2009 0 0% 3.8%96,052 02,526,948

2008 3,800 0.2% -5.2%(132,627) -2,526,948


Page 20

Supply & Demand TrendsFort Collins Industrial

LOGISTICS SUPPLY & DEMAND



2024 198,411 1.4% 1.7%250,873 0.814,438,343

2023 198,930 1.4% 2.0%282,596 0.714,239,932

2022 130,721 0.9% 1.4%199,663 0.714,041,002

2021 112,970 0.8% 1.0%142,993 0.813,910,281

2020 158,746 1.2% -0.5%(63,372) -13,797,311

YTD 38,120 0.3% -0.1%(17,142) -13,676,685

2019 280,812 2.1% 2.8%375,147 0.713,638,565

2018 220,807 1.7% -0.1%(6,892) -13,357,753

2017 296,085 2.3% 3.1%411,289 0.713,136,946

2016 116,691 0.9% -0.5%(64,436) -12,840,861

2015 (11,318) -0.1% 0.3%40,228 -12,724,170

2014 256,896 2.1% 3.1%400,147 0.612,735,488

2013 171,625 1.4% 2.1%263,946 0.712,478,592

2012 0 0% 1.9%231,114 012,306,967

2011 35,911 0.3% 0.6%76,990 0.512,306,967

2010 75,348 0.6% 0.7%90,408 0.812,271,056

2009 13,560 0.1% -1.3%(159,321) -12,195,708

2008 91,950 0.8% -1.1%(133,120) -12,182,148

FLEX SUPPLY & DEMAND



2024 50,336 0.8% 1.2%75,373 0.76,357,971

2023 50,374 0.8% 1.5%93,599 0.56,307,635

2022 33,124 0.5% 1.1%68,955 0.56,257,261

2021 14,901 0.2% 0.7%43,061 0.36,224,137

2020 73,670 1.2% 0.6%35,321 2.16,209,236

YTD 15,000 0.2% 0.6%37,275 0.46,150,566

2019 44,400 0.7% 1.5%92,510 0.56,135,566

2018 37,195 0.6% 0.5%29,269 1.36,091,166

2017 (41,931) -0.7% -0.1%(5,357) -6,053,971

2016 13,400 0.2% 0.6%36,644 0.46,095,902

2015 0 0% 0.9%56,582 06,082,502

2014 68,081 1.1% 1.4%88,129 0.86,082,502

2013 0 0% -0.1%(6,379) -6,014,421

2012 0 0% 1.0%57,151 06,014,421

2011 0 0% 1.3%78,517 06,014,421

2010 0 0% 1.3%77,999 06,014,421

2009 0 0% -4.2%(254,972) -6,014,421

2008 70,855 1.2% -8.4%(503,796) -6,014,421


Page 21

Rent & VacancyFort Collins Industrial

OVERALL RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent

Per SF Index % Growth Vs Hist PeakYear

Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2024 139 2.4% 7.9%$10.64 1,134,667 4.7% -0.4%

2023 136 2.2% 5.4%$10.39 1,224,727 5.2% -0.7%

2022 133 3.6% 3.1%$10.17 1,372,955 5.8% -0.5%

2021 129 8.5% -0.4%$9.82 1,487,809 6.4% -0.3%

2020 118 -8.2% -8.2%$9.05 1,538,744 6.6% 1.3%

YTD 129 0.1% 0.1%$9.87 1,289,503 5.6% 0.2%

2019 129 4.2% 0%$9.86 1,235,899 5.4% -0.9%

2018 124 5.7% -4.0%$9.47 1,430,502 6.3% 0%

2017 117 4.0% -9.2%$8.96 1,398,530 6.3% -1.1%

2016 113 3.1% -12.7%$8.61 1,611,725 7.4% 0.4%

2015 109 4.0% -15.3%$8.36 1,490,516 7.0% 1.0%

2014 105 4.7% -18.6%$8.03 1,280,882 6.0% -0.9%

2013 100 3.1% -22.2%$7.67 1,460,744 6.9% -0.7%

2012 97 1.7% -24.5%$7.45 1,584,660 7.6% -1.4%

2011 96 0.4% -25.8%$7.32 1,870,262 9.0% -0.4%

2010 95 -2.4% -26.0%$7.30 1,949,958 9.4% -0.6%

2009 98 -2.2% -24.2%$7.48 2,069,479 10.0% 1.6%

2008 100 0.3% -22.5%$7.65 1,737,678 8.4% 4.5%

SPECIALIZED INDUSTRIAL RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent


Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2024 139 2.5% 7.9%$10.58 96,590 3.0% -0.4%

2023 136 2.3% 5.2%$10.32 109,881 3.4% -0.7%

2022 133 3.7% 2.9%$10.09 132,030 4.2% -0.4%

2021 128 8.7% -0.7%$9.74 143,494 4.5% 0.2%

2020 118 -8.7% -8.7%$8.96 137,508 4.4% 1.6%

YTD 129 -0.5% -0.5%$9.76 107,733 3.4% 0.7%

2019 129 2.7% 0%$9.81 87,116 2.8% -1.7%

2018 126 6.1% -2.6%$9.55 139,274 4.4% -6.2%

2017 119 3.4% -8.2%$9.00 315,407 10.6% -1.8%

2016 115 2.8% -11.2%$8.71 354,174 12.4% -2.9%

2015 112 4.6% -13.6%$8.47 390,848 15.3% 12.4%

2014 107 4.8% -17.4%$8.10 73,086 2.9% -0.7%

2013 102 2.1% -21.2%$7.73 89,649 3.5% -1.5%

2012 100 1.5% -22.8%$7.57 127,623 5.0% 0.1%

2011 98 0.7% -23.9%$7.46 124,960 4.9% 1.6%

2010 98 -1.9% -24.5%$7.41 85,060 3.3% -1.1%

2009 99 -0.6% -23.0%$7.55 111,522 4.4% -3.8%

2008 100 1.5% -22.6%$7.59 207,574 8.2% 5.4%


Page 22

Rent & VacancyFort Collins Industrial

LOGISTICS RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent


Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2024 141 2.5% 8.5%$9.94 275,513 1.9% -0.4%

2023 138 2.3% 5.8%$9.70 326,962 2.3% -0.6%

2022 135 3.7% 3.5%$9.48 409,632 2.9% -0.5%

2021 130 8.7% -0.3%$9.14 477,435 3.4% -0.2%

2020 120 -8.2% -8.2%$8.41 506,567 3.7% 1.6%

YTD 130 0% 0%$9.16 343,957 2.5% 0.4%

2019 130 3.7% 0%$9.17 288,695 2.1% -0.8%

2018 126 5.8% -3.5%$8.84 383,030 2.9% 1.7%

2017 119 4.2% -8.8%$8.36 155,331 1.2% -1.1%

2016 114 2.7% -12.5%$8.02 293,185 2.3% 1.4%

2015 111 3.7% -14.8%$7.81 112,058 0.9% -0.4%

2014 107 5.0% -17.9%$7.53 163,604 1.3% -1.2%

2013 102 4.0% -21.8%$7.17 306,855 2.5% -0.8%

2012 98 2.3% -24.8%$6.89 399,176 3.2% -1.9%

2011 96 0.5% -26.5%$6.74 630,290 5.1% -0.3%

2010 95 -2.5% -26.8%$6.71 671,369 5.5% -0.2%

2009 98 -2.2% -25.0%$6.88 686,429 5.6% 1.4%

2008 100 0.3% -23.3%$7.03 513,548 4.2% 1.8%

FLEX RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent


Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2024 135 2.1% 6.8%$12.23 762,564 12.0% -0.5%

2023 132 1.9% 4.6%$11.98 787,884 12.5% -0.8%

2022 130 3.2% 2.7%$11.76 831,293 13.3% -0.6%

2021 126 8.2% -0.5%$11.40 866,880 13.9% -0.5%

2020 116 -8.0% -8.0%$10.53 894,669 14.4% 0.4%

YTD 127 0.6% 0.6%$11.52 837,813 13.6% -0.4%

2019 127 5.8% 0%$11.46 860,088 14.0% -0.9%

2018 120 5.4% -5.5%$10.83 908,198 14.9% -0.4%

2017 114 3.9% -10.3%$10.27 927,792 15.3% -0.5%

2016 109 3.8% -13.7%$9.88 964,366 15.8% -0.4%

2015 105 4.4% -16.9%$9.52 987,610 16.2% -0.9%

2014 101 3.9% -20.4%$9.12 1,044,192 17.2% -0.5%

2013 97 1.9% -23.4%$8.78 1,064,240 17.7% 0.1%

2012 95 0.6% -24.8%$8.62 1,057,861 17.6% -1.0%

2011 95 0% -25.2%$8.57 1,115,012 18.5% -1.3%

2010 95 -2.4% -25.2%$8.57 1,193,529 19.8% -1.3%

2009 97 -2.9% -23.4%$8.78 1,271,528 21.1% 4.2%

2008 100 -0.4% -21.1%$9.04 1,016,556 16.9% 9.5%


Page 23

Sale TrendsFort Collins Industrial

OVERALL SALES

Completed Transactions (1)

Turnover Avg Price/SFDeals VolumeYear

Market Pricing Trends (2)

Avg Price Price IndexAvg Cap Rate Price/SF Cap Rate

2024 -- - -- 183- $152.62 6.9%

2023 -- - -- 179- $149.13 6.8%

2022 -- - -- 173- $143.93 6.9%

2021 -- - -- 159- $132.71 7.2%

2020 -- - -- 158- $131.65 7.2%

YTD $16.9M11 0.5% $144.18$1,913,316 1768.0% $146.94 6.6%

2019 $137.7M88 5.7% $119.86$2,976,903 1746.8% $145.14 6.6%

2018 $75.4M66 4.3% $104.10$2,470,044 1646.5% $136.90 6.6%

2017 $109.9M90 6.1% $98.64$2,384,890 1537.4% $127.46 6.7%

2016 $57.6M78 4.3% $85.93$1,617,738 1447.7% $119.70 6.8%

2015 $55.8M108 8.2% $85.41$1,568,294 1366.2% $112.95 6.9%

2014 $52.5M78 4.4% $69.38$1,366,864 1267.5% $104.79 7.1%

2013 $75.6M116 5.6% $79.98$1,395,306 1147.4% $94.77 7.4%

2012 $35.5M76 3.5% $53.80$1,111,710 1077.5% $88.87 7.6%

2011 $27.6M72 10.8% $21.42$1,207,831 100- $82.99 8.0%

2010 $28M52 2.4% $59.58$1,078,508 9511.1% $79.20 8.2%

2009 $28.5M39 2.6% $58.38$2,055,389 918.7% $75.99 8.6%

(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period.

(2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.

SPECIALIZED INDUSTRIAL SALES





2024 -- - -- 185- $213.04 6.7%

2023 -- - -- 181- $208.25 6.6%

2022 -- - -- 174- $200.24 6.7%

2021 -- - -- 156- $180.25 7.0%

2020 -- - -- 155- $178.48 7.0%

YTD -- - -- 180- $208.02 6.4%

2019 $26.6M8 7.0% $119.78$3,327,465 175- $201.54 6.4%

2018 $7.5M4 7.9% $42.89$3,750,000 165- $190.69 6.4%

2017 $4.1M4 2.2% $63.16$1,019,999 154- $177.91 6.5%

2016 $4.6M3 2.1% $88.40$2,295,000 145- $166.94 6.5%

2015 $760K2 1.8% $125.00$760,000 137- $157.89 6.6%

2014 $1.8M5 2.5% $40.54$612,767 126- $145.71 6.8%

2013 $2.6M5 1.6% $62.85$521,240 113- $130.80 7.2%

2012 $2.4M3 3.7% $26.06$1,200,000 106- $122.56 7.4%

2011 $2.5M4 3.1% $42.28$1,255,850 100- $114.82 7.7%

2010 $11.8M1 6.7% $69.78$11,850,000 9510.3% $109.91 7.9%

2009 $3.5M2 2.1% $66.00$1,740,529 91- $105.11 8.3%




Page 24

Sale TrendsFort Collins Industrial

LOGISTICS SALES





2024 -- - -- 184- $142.68 6.8%

2023 -- - -- 180- $139.25 6.8%

2022 -- - -- 173- $134.34 6.8%

2021 -- - -- 160- $124.31 7.1%

2020 -- - -- 159- $123.20 7.1%

YTD $9.3M8 0.5% $128.27$1,354,588 1768.0% $136.11 6.6%

2019 $75.4M57 6.4% $102.41$2,674,454 1757.0% $135.32 6.5%

2018 $49.9M52 4.4% $118.08$2,095,908 1646.5% $127.17 6.6%

2017 $44.8M54 5.3% $90.40$2,341,651 1527.2% $117.95 6.7%

2016 $35.9M58 5.1% $86.42$1,437,374 1438.0% $111.01 6.7%

2015 $41.6M62 4.9% $101.04$1,547,704 1356.2% $104.44 6.8%

2014 $38.6M61 5.0% $81.64$1,472,481 1257.5% $96.85 7.1%

2013 $53.1M80 7.4% $75.31$1,578,419 1146.9% $88.25 7.4%

2012 $24M54 4.2% $50.95$940,437 1078.5% $82.62 7.6%

2011 $8M35 2.3% $45.25$679,776 100- $77.22 7.9%

2010 $10.1M36 2.0% $45.47$471,497 9512.0% $73.58 8.2%

2009 $18.6M27 3.3% $49.16$2,512,857 92- $70.93 8.5%



FLEX SALES





2024 -- - -- 180- $144.25 7.0%

2023 -- - -- 176- $141.28 7.0%

2022 -- - -- 171- $136.85 7.1%

2021 -- - -- 159- $127.40 7.4%

2020 -- - -- 158- $126.82 7.4%

YTD $7.6M3 0.7% $170.00$3,589,500 175- $140.19 6.8%

2019 $35.7M23 3.6% $187.46$3,539,032 1736.7% $138.51 6.8%

2018 $18M10 2.1% $141.96$4,360,407 164- $131.39 6.8%

2017 $61M32 9.8% $110.16$2,668,430 1547.7% $123.17 6.8%

2016 $17.1M17 3.9% $84.30$2,042,626 1447.5% $115.21 6.9%

2015 $13.4M44 17.8% $57.08$1,754,358 136- $109.21 7.0%

2014 $12M12 3.9% $50.51$1,332,800 127- $101.80 7.2%

2013 $19.9M31 3.4% $100.05$1,293,209 1148.0% $91.10 7.6%

2012 $9.1M19 1.9% $94.26$2,365,948 1077.0% $85.78 7.8%

2011 $17.1M33 31.7% $16.22$1,783,889 100- $79.78 8.2%

2010 $6.1M15 1.3% $77.34$1,117,183 95- $76.21 8.5%

2009 $6.5M10 1.2% $111.67$1,412,250 918.7% $72.57 9.0%




Page 25

Industrial Market ReportMarket Key StatisticsLeasingRentConstructionUnder Construction PropertiesSalesSales Past 12 MonthsEconomyMarket SubmarketsSupply & Demand TrendsRent & VacancySale Trends

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