Taylor Fork

Learning Objectives

Students will be able to

Define each of and explain the relationship amongst hypotheses, experiments, predications,

independent variables and dependent variables.

Define and calculate mean, median and mode.

Compare and contrast descriptive and inferential statistics.

Describe the role of inferential statistics in making scientific claims.

Aug 18th – 29th Preparatory Activities

Relationship among hypothesis, prediction, experiment

Mean, median and mode

Discrete vs Continuous Data

Chi-square and t-test

Aug 18th – 29th First trip to Taylor Fork

Investigate Area

Plan study that will generate discrete data

Plan a study that will generate continuous data

Discuss working with Model students

Aug 18th – 29th Second trip to Taylor Fork

Perform both studies

Finalize plans for working with Model students

Sept 3rd – 5th First trip to Model

Introduce trip to Taylor Fork

Describe posters that will be produced

Organize teams

Discuss Scientific Method???

Sept 8th – 12th First Model trip to Taylor Fork

Investigate Area

Plan an experiment (hypothesis, experiment, independent variable, dependent variable and predictions).

Visit bee hives

Sept 8th – 12th Second Model trip to Taylor Fork

Conduct experiments

Sept ?? Second trip to Model

Data analysis and prepare posters

Bee Garden Video

Task

Create a video that would provide a homeowner useful, scientifically based guidance on creating a garden

that would help sustain bee populations.

This will be a team effort with the class working as a whole. There will be minimal guidance from Dr.

Staddon or Dr. Brock.

The final video will be due Wednesday, December 3rd.

Monday, October 20th

Designate a chair for the effort. The chair will ensure that class meetings follow an agenda

Identify the “pieces” that will be needed to create this video (e.g. How will the video be shot?)

Decide what the first steps would be.

Assign the first tasks and set deadlines for completion.

Evaluation

1. Effort to creating the video.

Your grade will be determined by class assessment of your performance.

You will assess each member of the class in terms of the contribution to the overall effort in producing the

video. Scores will be average for the actual grade.

o I would rate …………………. performance on the project as an (A+, A, A-, B+, B etc…..)

Interim scores will be collected on Monday, November 3rd. These will not count toward your grade. They

are only meant to provide feedback to each member of the class as to how well they are performing.

Final scores will be collected on Wednesday, December 3rd and will count towards your grade.

Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7 Peer 8 Self evaluation

Average

Baisden, Autumn K.

Casebolt, Jessica D.

Costelle, Hannah R.

Deville, Julian S.

Ganley, Erin R.

Miller, Kasondra K.

Moore, Brittany L.

Sigler, Naomi M.

Stanley, Dalton T.

2. Tentative Wording of Final Exam Question

Describe, in the context of supporting scientific evidence, the strengths and limitations of the advice given in video.

Chi-Square Test Coin flipping example A coin was flipped 10 times which resulted in six heads and fours tails. Was this result due to chance or was some underlying phenomenon cause the coin not to behave randomly? The chi-square test compares the experimental with the expected results. Two hypotheses are considered, the null hypothesis (HO) and the alternative hypothesis (HA). The null hypothesis assumes any variation is due to random chance while the alternative hypothesis assumes that any variation is due to an underlying phenomenon other than chance. HO: There is no difference in the number of heads and tails (differences are due to chance.) HA: There is a difference in the number of heads and tails (differences are not due to chance) The chi-square test compares the observed results (six heads and four tails) with expected results. This would be five heads and five tails if there was an equal chance of each side coming up. The expected value is subtracted from the observed value and result is squared. The product is then divided by the expected value.

Result Observed* Expected* Sum (Observed-Expected)2

Expected

Head 6 5 (6-5)2

5 =

1 5

= 0.2

Tails 4 5 (4-5)2

5 =

1 5

= 0.2

*The totals for observed and expected columns will be the same

Sum (Observed-Expected)2

Expected 0.4

To perform the chi-square test the “degrees of freedom” need to be calculated. Degrees of freedom = number of alternatives -1. We have two alternatives, heads and tails. Therefore the degrees of freedom equal 2-1 or 1. The chi-square value is 0.4 Consult the chi-square table on the following page and look at the 1 degree of freedom row. You will see that our result, 0.4, lies between the values 0.102 and (p=0.75) and 0.455 (p=0.50). This tells us that the result of six heads and four tails will occur between 50% and 75% of the time. Which hypothesis is correct? The important value is 3.841 (p=0.05). If the probability is greater than 0.05 (5%) we accept the null hypothesis (the results occurred just due to chance). If the probability is below 0.05 then we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis (i.e. the results are due to some phenomena other than chance). Chi-Square Values

Significance Level

0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 0.05 0.01 0.001

Degrees

of Freedom

1 0.016 0.102 0.455 1.323 2.706 3.841 6.635 10.828

2 0.211 0.575 1.386 2.773 4.605 5.991 9.210 13.816

3 0.584 1.213 2.366 4.105 6.251 7.815 11.345 16.266

4 1.064 1.923 3.357 5.385 7.779 9.488 13.277 18.467

5 1.610 2.675 4.351 6.626 9.236 11.070 15.086 20.515

6 2.204 3.455 5.348 7.841 10.645 12.592 16.812 22.458

7 2.833 4.255 6.346 9.037 12.017 14.067 18.475 24.322

8 3.490 5.071 7.344 10.219 13.362 15.507 20.090 26.124

9 4.168 5.899 8.343 11.389 14.684 16.919 21.666 27.877

10 4.865 6.737 9.342 12.549 15.987 18.307 23.209 29.588

Grey – Accept HO White – Accept HA

You were asked to predict the number of heads (out of 10) that would need to come up to provide evidence that the coin was behaving non-randomly. Calculate the chi-square value for your prediction.

Result Observed* Expected* Sum (Observed-Expected)2

Expected

Head 5

Tails 5

*The totals for observed and expected columns will be the same

Sum (Observed-Expected)2

Expected

How many degrees of freedom will there be? What is the chi-square value at p=0.05? Which hypothesis, HO or HA is accepted? Would the coin be behaving randomly if the numbers of heads you stated came up?

Chi-Square Exercise

You will use the chi-square test to assess the populations of poms in two bags. Bag A

There are three different colors of poms in this bag. You will determine if there are equal numbers of each color.

Write the null and alternative hypotheses. Use complete sentences.

Randomly remove 45 poms without looking in the bag.

Perform the chi-square test to see if there are equal numbers of each color. HO: HA:

Result Observed* Expected* (Observed-Expected)2

Expected Yellow Pink Orange

Sum (Observed-Expected)2

Expected

*The totals for observed and expected columns will be the same. How many degrees of freedom will there be? What is the chi-square value at p=0.05? Which hypothesis, HO or HA is accepted? Are there equal numbers of each color?

Bag B

There are two different colors of poms in this bag. You will determine if the red to white ratio is 3:1. Note that the expected values will not evenly split between red and white.

Write the null and alternative hypotheses. Use complete sentences.

Randomly remove 40 poms without looking in the bag.

Perform the chi-square test to see if the red to white ratio is 3:1. HO: HA:

Result Observed* Expected* (Observed-Expected)2

Expected

Red

White

Sum (Observed-Expected)2

Expected

*The totals for observed and expected will be the same. How many degrees of freedom will there be? What is the chi-square value at p=0.05? Which hypothesis, HO or HA is accepted? Are there equal numbers of each color?

How Large Should Your Study Be?

Tom and Jerry were counting bees on two species of flowers, goldenrod and chicory.

Tom Tom counted a total of 10 bees. 70% were found on goldenrod and 30% were on chicory.

H0: The bees choose the flowers at random. There is an equal chance they will be on goldenrod and chicory.

HA: The bees do not choose the flowers at random. There is not an equal chance they will be on goldenrod and chicory.

Result Observed Expected (O-E)2

E What is calculated chi-square value

(“Sum”)?

goldenrod How many degrees of freedom are

there?

chicory What is the critical value of the chi-

square at statistic (0.05)?

Sum

Which is accepted, HO or HA?

Jerry Jerry counted a total of 50 bees. 70% were found on goldenrod and 30% were on chicory.

H0: The bees choose the flowers at random. There is an equal chance they will be on goldenrod and chicory.

HA: The bees do not choose the flowers at random. There is not an equal chance they will be on goldenrod and chicory.

Result Observed Expected (O-E)2

E

What is calculated chi-square value (“Sum”)?

goldenrod How many degrees of freedom are

there?

chicory What is the critical value of the chi-

square at statistic (0.05)?

Sum

Which is accepted, HO or HA?

1) Do the results of Tom and Jerry’s experiments agree? Why (not)?

2) Do you have greater confidence in one experiment over the other? Why (not)?

Colony Collapse Disorder: A Descriptive Study

HON 216 - Fall 2014

Objectives

By the end of this exercise you should be able to;

Distinguish amongst abstract, introduction, materials and methods, results, and discussion in terms of the function they serve in the paper.

List the hypotheses tested in the paper.

Explain (in lay terms) how each hypothesis was investigated.

Described the findings for each hypothesis.

Describe the relevance and, where possible, the limitations of each finding.

Where possible, explain how each finding is consistent (or inconsistent) with those of other researchers.

Contrast the definition of CCD given in the introduction with that found in the discussion. Explain the rationale for the change.

Explain how correlation vs causation is relevant to interpreting this study.

Procedure

Step 1 Read the introduction. In you notebook, explain the purpose of the study and list what might be the cause of colony collapse disorder based on previous work.

Step 2 Read “Apiary selection and CCD assessment” and “Colony strength and sample collection”. In your notebook, draw a diagram illustrating the experimental design

Step 3 Identify each of hypotheses regarding CCD that were examined in this study (note that mites and pathogens should be considered two separate hypotheses). Explain (in lay terms how each hypothesis was tested and why this approach (or approaches) was taken. List the results and their relevance, limitations and consistency with other findings.

Set up your notebook as follows for each of the hypotheses test (from Step 3). Use new

pages for each hypothesis.

Hypothesis

Results

Approach

Relevance, Limitations, Consistency

Spine

Fate of Chemicals in Soil

Fluorescein will be used as model chemicals to model the fate of chemicals in the environment.

Setup

1. Make up “mud” suspension by combining 5 g soil with 10 mL tap water in capped tube, and mix well using

vortex. This is the Experimental Sample.

2. Make up a second tube, the Control, with 10 mL water with no soil.

3. To each tube add 1.0 mL fluorescein solution (100 µg/mL in acetone). Be careful with the stock

fluorescein solution, and keep it capped!

4. Each day of the experiment, be sure to mix both tubes well to keep them well-suspended.

Measuring Fluorescein - First Day

1. Use two fresh tubes, and place in each 5 mL methanol.

2. To one tube add 1.0 mL of the mud suspension, and to the other add 1.0 mL of the control.

3. Vortex each for 15 seconds and let settle for about a minute.

4. Place 1.0 mL of the clearer material at the top of the tube to a plastic microfuge tube.

5. Place both tubes into the microcentrifuge so that they balance each other.

6. Centrifuge the tubes by pressing the “pulse” button for 10 seconds.

7. Set up the colorimeter by placing a cuvette filled with water into it. Make sure it is reading at 470 nm

(this is the color of light passing though the sample or being absorbed by it).

8. Close the colorimeter lid, then press the “Calb” button for about 2 seconds, and make sure it is reading a

value of about zero.

9. Pour out the water from the cuvette, and add 2.0 mL of the Tris solution.

10. Add to this 1.0 mL of one of your samples, and read (and record on the table on the other side of this

sheet) the absorbance value shown.

11. Pour out the sample and rinse well with the wash bottle.

12. Add 2.0 mL tris again, then add 1.0 mL of your other sample.

13. Read and record the absorbance value.

14. Rinse out the cuvette.

15.

Subsequent days.

1. Repeat as above with two fresh tubes with methanol (step 1)

2.

3. Vortex for 15 seconds and let settle.

4. Fill two microcentrifuge tubes with the “methanol/mud” suspension and centrifuge for few seconds.

5. Add the supernatants (the liquid at the top) to a cuvette.

6. Measure absorbance at ???? nm.

Date Elapsed time*

Experimental Absorbance

Control Absorbance Net Absorbance** (due to soil effect)

*So t=0 is the first sample ** =Control-Experimental

Neonicotinoids and Insects

Read the article “Neonicotinoids and bees: What’s all the buzz?” Experiment 1 Design experiment that would test the hypothesis that applying a neonicotinoid to a food source is lethal for termites (they eat wood). The data generated should be such that it can be analyzed using the chi-square test. Experiment 2 Design an experiment to test they hypothesis that applying a neonicotinoid to a food source may affect the behavior of termites (ability to follow a line drawn with a BIC pen). The data generated should be such that it can be analyzed using the chi-square test. In your notes, explicitly state

the hypothesis

the experimental design

the independent variable

the control

controlled variables

the dependent variable

the predicted outcome(s) of the experiment if the hypothesis is correct

the predicted outcome(s) of the experiment if the hypothesis is incorrect Groups will prepare a PowerPoint presentation (with handouts of slides) and present their slides to the class. Groups will critically assess their peer’s experiments using the rubric on the page below.

Experiment and Presentation Critical Review Your Names (only include those who helped prepare this review)...............................................

Experimenters (e.g. Jones, Smith, Johnson, Black)

Title of Presentation

Question Circle Your Answer

Justification.

1. Was a clear, testable hypothesis given? Yes No

Maybe

2. Was the experimental design (with all significant information) clearly given? Could you reasonably reproduce the experiment with the details given and expect to get the same results?

Yes No

Maybe

3. Did the experiment actually test the hypothesis (i.e. was the experimental design free of problems)? Was a single independent variable changed in the experiment (i.e. Were all the controlled variables actually the same?)

Yes No

Maybe

4. Are there assumptions being made in the experimental design that may influence the interpretation of the results?

Yes No

Maybe

5. Were the results clearly given? Yes No

Maybe

6. Was the chi-square analysis done correctly? (Check the math!) Yes No

Maybe

7. Is/are the conclusion(s) supported by the data? Yes No

Maybe

8. Does the phenomena (hypothesis) under investigation require further investigation? (i.e. What are the implications of this study. Are there limitations in applying the results broadly?)

Yes No

Maybe

Reflection on Eastern Kentucky

HON 216 assignment

On our trip in several places (the museum, the mine, the towns we pass through and others), we will the

impact of mining on the people of E. KY. On the one hand, we may see that mining provided

employment, brought roads and outsiders into the region, increased commerce, better schools, and so

forth. But on the other hand we may see more negative impacts on the economy, how it prevented the

development of diverse employment opportunities, prevented the local accumulation of wealth, changed

the landscape, introduced diseases without concomitant health care improvement, and possibly others.

The question for you is to provide evidence based on your observations during this trip of whether there

has been a net improvement in the lives of E. KY families or not. Evidence, particularly generated during

this trip, is essential.

This is an individual project, not carried out with your group, although you may confer with others in your

group or people you encounter along your trip. You might do some planning before hand as to questions

you might ask various people you do see in the mountains. There will be a variety of really interesting

human resources as well as more museum-like resources for you to draw upon in addition to direct

observation.

Your reflection should be word-processed 10 point font, at least 2 full pages but not significantly more (4

pages is certainly too much). You must provide evidence both supporting and refuting your main thesis

and an argument structured to incorporate all of your evidence to reach a final conclusion. The amount of

evidence needed depends somewhat on its nature, but generally there should be at least three different

types of observation on each side and an evaluation of the reliability of each piece of evidence.

We might suggest how much evidence is needed, provide guidance as to the structure of their

arguments, the length of this reflection, and so forth.

This assignment will be due no later than Monday 30 Sept by the close of day.

What To Do About Neonicotinoids?

You are a member of the senior council to the King and Queen of the Dominion of Adanac. They have asked you and the other members of the royal council to investigate colony collapse disorder and make recommendations. The royal couple are benevolent despots genuinely interested in doing what is best for all aspects of the Dominion and their subjects. Further, whatever you recommend will be implemented without hesitation by the King or Queen or resistance from the subjects. Your specific task is to decide if neonicotinoids should be banned in Adanac as they have in the European Union. Members of the royal council and yourself will gather appropriate information. Each of you will prepare a report that makes a clear recommendation as to whether neonicotinoids should be banned or not followed by your rationale. On a future date, you will give a 15 minute oral briefing to the King and Queen justifying your recommendations. You are solely responsible for the recommendation and rationale chosen. Steps

1. In consultation with other members of the royal counsel, you will prepare a preliminary set of guidelines that will be used to make the recommendation. These will be recorded on parchment with quills using your finest calligraphy (or in your notebooks with a pen or pencil). Be sure to consider that there a variety of stakeholders (who may be affected by the ban) and a diversity of perspectives amongst the subjects.

2. Each member of the council will find two papers from the primary scientific literature (peer reviewed, no review articles). Each source will be made available to all members of the royal counsel (ideally using His and Her Majesties’ Royal Blackboard Site). The 18 papers will be made available to all members of the royal counsel and will be deemed to be the sum total of knowledge in the Dominion about colony collapse disorder (for the purposes of the recommendation).

3. Each day, two members of the council will present a summary of one of the two papers she or he has chosen (each member will therefore present on two different days). Presentations will be made using PowerPoint, yodeling or interpretive dance. PowerPoint presentations should be around 10 minutes. There are no time expectations or limitations for the two other modes of delivery. The presentations should make use of the Elements of Thought. Personal satisfaction, inner warmth and good grades will certainly come from ensuing that most, if not all, of the elements are effectively addressed. Presentations will be followed by brief discussion with other members of the council.

4. You will prepare a final report using parchment and quills* (or a word processor**). A final recommendation1, as to whether neonicotinoids should or should not be banned, will be made clear at the beginning. This will be followed by an explanation of the rationale for your recommendation (with the appropriate references). This will be submitted to the King and Queen prior to Step 5. Evidence of sage advice that has its foundation in the Elements of Thought will be paramount and used as the basis for grading.

5. After submission, on yet to be determined dates (likely November 21st and 24th), you will defend (within the confines of a 15 minute timeframe***) your recommendation to the King and Queen2. Be prepared to answer their questions. This will be done on an individual basis at a pre-determined time with no other members of the royal counsel in attendance. As with the written report, evidence of sage advice that has its foundation in the Elements of Thought will be paramount and used as the basis for grading.

Remember, the royal couple value all aspects of the kingdom and wellbeing of all of their subjects.

*No substitutions! No page limit. Remember about the finest calligraphy. **Maximum of three pages, double-spaced not including the reference section. ***Ten minute presentation and five minutes for questions. Presentations longer than ten minutes will result in Thanksgiving break being spent in a dungeon (no turkey; television reception is poor making football viewing iffy)

1This will constitute 60% of your grade for Exam II. Always read the fine print!!! 2This will constitute 40% of your grade for Exam II. See above…ditto!