forex market insight 08 july 2011

8/6/2019 Forex Market Insight 08 July 2011

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Market Insights 8 July 2011

Big night for traders as ECB raises rates and US job numbers beat forecasts

Euro plunges toward 1.4200 on rate decision before rallying on ECB press conference

US ADP jobs numbers ahead of expectations in lead-up to tonight’s non-farms

Gold steady, but crude continues move higher

Dow pushed 0.7% higher on better jobs dataBiggest event of the month tonight: US non-farm payrolls at 10.30pm. Market expects 88,000 increase

Headlines

AUD/USD

XAU/USD

Resistance

1.0780/800

Support

1.0660Market Sentiment

Bullish

The Aussie saw a very strong session overnight and this means the market will maintain its bullish tone. All eyes are on abreak above 1.0780/800 as this sets up a potential medium-term move to 1.1000.

Gold is currently consolidating between 1525 and 1535 as the market waits for the next break higher. Gold has gainedaround US$50 so far this week and the market is clearly bullish. A break above 1535 sets up a move to 1555.

Resistance

1535

Support

1525Market Sentiment

Bullish



EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY used the strong jobs numbers overnight to break above resistance at 81.25, but at the moment it’s a line-ball cawhether the pair can hold above this key level. While the pair holds above 81.25, the market is likely to be bullish, but a cleabreak below 81.25 sets up a new move to the 80.40/60 region.

There was no real action in the ‘cable’ overnight as the BoE kept rates on hold as expected. For now, the downtrend remainsin place, with resistance seen at 1.6100 and support at 1.5920. Tonight’s non-farm payrolls could be the eventual trigger for along-awaited break below 1.5920.

The Euro was sent lower overnight as the ECB announced a widely-expected rate increase of 25 basis points. However, suppowas found just above 1.4200 and hawkish commentary from the ECB saw the EUR stage a strong bounce from the lower end othe symmetrical triangle. The market now expects a continuation back to 1.4450 before the sellers re-emerge.

Resistance

1.4450

Support


Bullish

Resistance

1.6100

Support


Bearish

Resistance

81.25

Support

80.40/60Market Sentiment

Bullish



SILVER

USD/CHF

GBP/JPY

The GBP/JPY remains trapped under the multi-week downtrend line and traders will be looking to take new shorts on any movback towards the downtrend line. Support continues to be seen at 128.30.

The USD/CHF remains trapped in the range with traders waiting for move to either end of the range before taking positionsTraders will be looking to take longs at 83.30 or shorts at 85.50. A break below 82.80 changes the view to bearish.

Silver continues to gain in line with other precious metals with the last 24 hours seeing a small step higher. Silver now looks tohave cleared the top end of the triangle formation and this sets it up for further gains. A break of 36.80 is likely to see furthebuying.

Resistance

36.80

Support


Bullish

Resistance

85.50

Support


Rangebound

Resistance

130.30

Support


Bearish



AUD/JPY

OIL

Economic Calendar

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F/Cast Last F/Cast Last

» AUD: RBA Assist Gov Debelle » CAD: Unemployment Rate 7.4% 7.4%

» CHF: Unemployment Rate 3.0% 3.0% » CAD: Employment Rate 12.7K 22.3K

» EUR: German Trade Balance 12.8B 12.0B » USD: Non Farm Employment 88K 54K

» GBP: PPI Input m/m 0.1% -1.2% » USD: Unemployment Rate 9.1% 9.1%» GBP: PPI Output m/m 0.1% 0.2% » »

The crude market has recently followed a very precise ‘step-up’ pattern in which it trades in increasingly higher bands.

After last night’s move higher, support now rises to 97.70 and resistance rises to 99.40.

The better-than-expected Australian job numbers yesterday helped the AUD/JPY higher after bouncing from levels just abovesupport. From here, the trading bracket moves higher, with support now rising to 87.00 and resistance rising to 88.10.

Resistance

99.40Support


Bullish

Resistance

88.10Support


Bullish

forex market insight 08 july 2011

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