FOREWORDDespite demonetization and its expected impact on real estate values in the Oct-Dec 2016 quarter, price decline was restricted to certain geographies and budgets. Prices dropped in only Noida, Gurgaon and Ghaziabad in the National Capital Region. Of the remaining 11 cities covered under PropIndex, prices remained stagnant in six cities. In cities like Greater Noida, Hyderabad, Thane, Bangalore and Navi Mumbai, prices went up by 0.5-2.5%.

Prices in the critical Rs 3,000-6,000 per sq.ft budget segment, which exists in 52% of the localities covered in the Propindex, remained largely stagnant. Prices in about 25% of localities in this price bracket remained stagnant, while localities with price decline were closely matched by localities with price increment. Prices of luxury property in the top six cities with significant stock, dropped by a marginal 0.7% in this quarter. This price decline in the luxury segment was witnessed across both ready-to-move and under-construction properties. This might work as a negative feedback and fresh supply in this segment is likely to be go down further. The average price of Ready-to-Move (RM) properties declined in 8 out of 14 cities this quarter. Pan-India, RM properties command a 7% premium over UC properties. With consumers preferring RM properties, the secondary markets are expected to become robust. This will keep the prices in the new launches under check.

While our survey of 14 key cities across the country points to a slowdown in the real estate activity, the price volatility has increased due to lack of liquidity, scaring away the potential homebuyers and sellers alike. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has fallen to 49.6 in December from 52.3 in November, pointing to the first contraction the index in over a year. The quarterly GDP growth is also expected to be largely subdued in the October—December period.

With such upheavals, the Indian real estate sector has entered an uncharted territory, and the lack of market liquidity has made it extremely difficult to gauge the pricing in the market through conventional means. In such a scenario, a tool like PropIndex remains one of the few indicators, capable enough to peer through the fog. In these changing times, and more than ever, we would love to hear from you. Do write to us at sudhir.pai@timesgroup.com and share yours views on this report and how we could make PropIndex even better. Sudhir Pai

CEO, Magicbricks.com

METHODOLOGYRealistic price discovery has been the biggest problem area in the Indian real estate market. As consumers and industry struggle to arrive at a realistic benchmark pricing to assess the true value of their individual units, Magicbricks, as the largest repository of residential property listings, brings you the trusted Indian Apartment Price Index in a new and easy to use format. Mirroring the Indian Real Estate scenario, this price index presents an animated representation of the real estate market.

Magicbricks publishes the quarter-on-quarter inflation and deflation trends of the residential real estate prices in India. It collects real estate demand-supply data on a daily basis for more than 100 cities in India, of which, the fourteen top cities are selected for computing the National Property Price Index.

The National Property Price Index and its constituent indices are subjected to a series of stringent steps.

Each quarter, Magicbricks measures the individual property level price changes, which are then aggregated at the locality level. While comparing the average pricing figures for the current quarter and comparing with the previous one, quarterly price changes are calculated. These price changes are further aggregated at the city level and even further at an all-India level.

As the top receiver and aggregator of residential demand, Magicbricks’ data provides consumers with realistic benchmarks to the assess true property pricing. Where demand exceeds supply, consumers have no chance of negotiating values.

However, where demand is far lower than supply, buyers can look for more options and therefore, negotiate

pricing. If, on the other hand, you are a seller looking for benchmark pricing, you will effect the fastest sale if your asking values are close to the buyer’s paying power.

There are various co-relations of demand and the overall real estate market as well as its future potential. Not only is demand a preceding indicator to supply, it is also a fairly good indicator of actual transaction activity in the region.

We have aggregated the 14 cities covered under the report into various localities. While calculating the city level property pricing indicator, we have applied demand as weight to each locality. This weight is equal to the locality’s share of the demand being contributed to the city’s total demand. As a consequence, the locality receiving higher demand for residential units will be given a higher weightage. Following that, each city’s price movement is calculated by aggregating the price movements of individual localities, according to their individual weightages.

In terms of checks and balances towards making the data and analysis more robust and objective, we have made sure that superfluous information does not deviate the desired results. Hence, we have applied checks and balances at the locality level listing data collection and aggregation.

A statistical technique called “Inter-Quartile Range” (IQR) has been used to ensure that unintentional input deviations of house size and price figures, which may distort the actual value of the house and corrupt the analysis, are addressed. The technique aims to remove the outlier data sets, while securing the correct values.

The Interquartile Range technique works through measuring variability of each data set, while dividing the data set into quartiles. The technique measures the value of data points on the first and third quartiles of the data and calculates the difference between the two.

This range, called ‘IQR’, gives the effective extent of data set, while removing the first 25% and the last 25%. Subsequently, a test is applied to each of the values in the data set. If a particular data lies within an IQR of the first and third quartile values, then that data is considered part of the data set, otherwise not. The set of listing values of each locality are statistically cleaned.

Magicbricks, on an average, covers more than 500 localities for Tier-I cities of India. Yet for the sake of analysis, we take only those localities where the recipient demand is at least 0.05% of the city’s total demand. Only localities with at least 50 actively traded properties have been included in the analysis. Following that process, we shortlisted various localities which in some sense, impact the pricing dynamics of the city.

We then calculate the average prices of the city for the quarter, while applying demand weights to the average prices of each locality. These average prices at the city level are further aggregated to the final outcome of the ‘National Price Index’.

The difference in Under Construction and Ready-to-Move-in property has been assessed and included in the report. Rental yield and affordability too has been addressed for the top 10 localities by supply in every city. These are critical tools which well used can help with realistic price discovery.

GLOSSARY & DEFINITIONS1. City Property Index :This is a composite index which is a function of supply of properties as well as

the average capital appreciation/drop in various localities of the city in the quarter. The City Index is the weighted average of the average rate per square foot in that locality and the supply of properties from that locality. Localities with higher supply of properties will have a bigger impact on the Index.

2. Price trend basis budget segments: To better understand the city’s price trend, the localities have been divided into budget segments basis their capital value (Rs/sq ft). We have tracked the weighted average price for each budget segment for a 2+ year period from quarter ending September 2013 to quarter ending December 2016.

Subsequently, the movement of the localities in each price segment is mapped to derive respective short term and long term price change trends. The number of budget segments vary according to the city characteristics.

3. Zone wise distribution of localities: The various localities in the cities are all geographically divided into five key regions: Northern, Southern, Eastern, Western and Central. The localities are analyzed at the local zonal level to better understand the effect of the various drivers of price and demand, which are active mostly at the zonal level rather than at the city level.

4. Zone wise distribution of property budget segments: To better understand how each of the city zones contribute to the city’s supply, and how they are able to provide housing at various price points, the supply is distributed into budget segments across various geographic zones. For instance, if a zone has most of its supply in the premium budget segment, then it naturally becomes a premium destination within the city. The price changes within the various budget segments are also analyzed at the zonal level to go to the depths of the price changes across the city and to easily contribute the price changes to local factors.

5. Capital Value Tables (given in Annexures): This shows the actual range of prices within which properties are available in each locality in the quarter. Prices are shown in Rupees per square foot basis, these are the prevailing rates for properties in each locality.

6. Price trend – Top 10 localities by consumer preference: This section presents the price trend of the Top 10 localities in the city by consumer preference. These localities have the highest consumer focus and assessment of price trend in these localities assists in understanding the prevalent and future price trend in the city.

7. Price trend basis construction status: This Index looks at the movement in prices of Under Construction (UC) and Ready-to-Move-in (RM) properties across localities in the city. It is a weighted price index where weight is assigned to each locality basis its share in the consumer preference in the city.

What is the PropIndex?

The PropIndex gives you locality-wise property values in two forms – as locality price ranges for sale and rent in the annexure to every city with additional information on whether it has gone up or down in the quarter, and what is the rental yield in that locality. These prices are based on the listed prices of properties for sale or rent on the website www.magicbricks.com. This helps you to understand the average locality price ranges and to assess whether the price of the property for sale or rent that you are assessing, lies within the average price ranges in the locality. In a market where data or information is hard to come by, this data helps you to assess whether you are being quoted rational values for the property you are considering.

Why do I get locality sale and rent prices and how do I use them?

When you buy a property you must know what the average locality prices are. When you buy property directly from the developer, the price per sq ft is the value you pay. Then there are additional preferred location charges (PLC) such as vastu related, view related or floor related. When you buy from the secondary market or from an individual seller, the price is determined basis a notional value of the property. The sale values in the PropIndex help you to establish the price you should demand if you are a seller or what you should pay if you are a buyer. Rental values, similarly, are the average values that are listed on the website. They serve as benchmarks of the expected rental prices in the locality.

What is rental yield and why is it significant?

If you pay a certain price for a property, there is an amount you earn per annum as rent. When the rental income is expressed as a percentage of the property value, it is rental yield. It is a good yardstick to compute which property to select as a Buy to Let investment.

Why is it called a Property Index and not Property values?

Magicbricks has a very large number of listings. The number per locality depends on market conditions and how many consumers or brokers or developers choose to post their properties for sale or rent. When we are computing values at the locality or city levels we do not want any one locality to skew the index value of the city. As a result when any one or more localities have more than usual or less than usual number of listings, using the ratio of price to number of listings helps to even out unusual spikes or troughs in the data. This gives you unbiased city or locality averages.

How do I use an index number?

Magicbricks Index was computed first in 2011. The values in the year 2011 have been used as the base value and is assumed to be 100. When the value is below that

base number, the index is said to have fallen. When it is more than that number, the index is said to have gone up. This gives users like you, who are interested in property markets, an idea of how the property market in your city has performed vis-à-vis other cities. When the economic conditions are good and the builder is actively developing and the consumer is actively buying, the index value rises above 100. When markets are flat due to lack of economic activity and therefore developer and consumer disinterest, the index values remain at 100 or drop below that.

Very high index values shows a lot of investor activity and therefore severe peaking of property values. As an end user you should avoid buying when there is intense buying and speculative activity. That however, is a good time for you to sell as high property prices will give you good returns on your investment. When the index value comes down dramatically, the chances are that you will not get good returns as a seller. But if you find the property that you like in this cycle, it is a good time to negotiate the best values and buy as the chances are that there will be fewer buyers in the market. Since the PropIndex is now 5-years old, a look at how the index values have moved over the years gives you a good idea of how the market has performed in different quarters. If you are interested in how property markets have performed across a period of time, the PropIndex values give you a fair idea of the movement.

Do I get any specific Advice that helps my property decisions?

Magicbricks has a team of data scientists and researchers who are constantly studying the property markets and values to get the trends. In the past two quarters, for instance, they have noticed that ready-to-move-in property has been significantly more expensive than under construction property. This probably indicates that consumers do not want to buy property that is not complete and has chances of delayed delivery and prefer to spend more to buy property that they can purchase and move into. This is useful to you as a buyer and alerts you to general trends of other buyers.

What is the editorial and how is it useful to me?

The editorial team of Magicbricks constantly assesses the property market developments and factors such as infrastructure announcements and transport corridor development, to figure out how they can impact values of residential real estate in your city. In each edition of PropIndex they assess what all has happened in the quarter and how it will impact the value of the property that you are interested in. This analysis gives you an idea of the issues you should consider when buying property in that city.

How do I use the different sections of the PropIndex?

The key takeaways are useful in getting an overview of the property market in your city. The geographical distribution of localities allows you to assess in which areas property is available for sale. The distribution of properties by capital value allows you to freeze the price segment where you are likely to get the type of property you are looking for. The budget wise price change helps to compute how the price range that you are looking for has been performing. If values have been rising in your budget of interest you may have to hurry up with your property decision if you are an end user. If it has dropped, figure out if there is a problem in that category. This exercise has been done for each part of the city. The price trend by construction basis tells you which the best stage is at which you should enter the property market. The price changes basis construction status takes this analysis a step forward. Read it carefully and you will be able to assess exactly when you should enter the market as a buyer and as an investor.

What is the Corridor of Growth?

Magicbricks has figured that the bulk of new property in any city is developed along a few transport corridors leading out of the city. These have been identified and studied for stock, price rise, current status, future potential and its physical and social infrastructure such as water, power, sewerage and drainage facilities, transport links, schools, colleges, hospitals and entertainment centres in the vicinity. Advice has been given on the basis of rental and buyer’s demand, the best configurations to buy – 2, 3 and 4BHK, past and future estimated price trends and also how it figures in the master plan of the city. News updates of each corridor allows you to understand the drivers of those corridors.

HOW TO USE THE PROPINDEX

Jayashree Kurup, Head content

In line with general lack of activity in the residential real estate market, the National Property Index has remained stagnant at

the same level as last quarter, with Ready-to-move (RM) properties, which form 70% of the supply witnessing their average price falling by 0.4%, while the Under-construction (UC) properties, which form the rest 30% of the supply, saw their average prices rising by 0.8% in the quarter.

The UC prices moved up across India due to existing projects nearing completion, along with a lack of new launches at cheaper rates. The fall in RM prices can be partly attributed to the curb in black money post demonetization.

On a quarter level, the south was the only region, which inched up visibly in terms of prices from the last quarter, while north fell the most. While real estate prices had already

hit rock bottom this year, the demonetization has put further pressure on RM prices, which are going to be effected in the next couple of quarters also due to effect on liquidity post demonetization.

On a more than three year scale, both western and northern India have done better than other regions, with the cities in these two regions witnessing a 9% price increment on average. The worst performer was the North region, where prices fell by almost 8% in the over the period.

In terms of historical price change in cities, Navi Mumbai was the best performer with a significant 19% increment over the more than three year period, followed by Hyderabad, which had a gain of more than 12% in the same period. Both Thane and Pune have witnessed 10% price increment, while the

fifth placed Bangalore witnessed an 8% price increment.

Next were Greater Noida, Ahmedabad, and Chennai, which witnessed gains of around 6% over the more than three year period, followed by Mumbai having a gain of 5% in its prices.

Gain of lower than 5% was witnessed by Noida, with 2% price increment, while Kolkata from Eastern region maintained the price in the October-December 2016 quarter, as 3.25 years ago.

Only three of the top fourteen cities considered for PropIndex witnessed a price decline in the last 3.25 years, and all three belonged to the Delhi NCR region. While prices in Gurgaon fell by 2%, those in Ghaziabad fell by a significant 7%. New Delhi was the worst performed overall, with a whopping 21% fall in prices in the period.

VOL 6, ISSUE 3; OCT-DEC, FY 2016-17 propindex.magicbricks.com

[OCT-DEC 2016]

The realty sector in India has been tepid for past few years with low transaction volumes and stagnant price level. Weak

economic scenario, perceived high price level and lack of consumer confidence in the developers with respect to project completion led to transaction volumes reducing drastically. The demonetization scheme by the Indian government has also put pressure on the market.

In addition to large unsold inventory with developers across the major Indian cities, there is a very active resale or secondary market. Indian realty market has reached a stage where inventory sold by developers in new projects is coming back into the market in large numbers.

In this analysis, we look at the secondary market across major Indian cities and its impact on the overall realty market.

Resale segment across citiesAssessment of actively traded properties on Magicbricks.com (MB) shows that resale segment forms sizeable component of the market. Southern cities (Hyderabad, Bengaluru and Chennai) show a reverse trend. Fresh booking options here are more than double of resale options. Scenario in case of Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) is more balanced out.

The graph below shows the city wise break-up of resale and fresh booking options (New

Property) on MB for each city.Markets which historically have had high investor to end-user ratio (like Gurgaon and Noida) have corresponding much higher percentage of ‘Resale’ options. Correspondingly, South Indian cities have had high end-user participation and this reflects in the ratio of ‘New’ and ‘Resale’ options.

Consumer is vary of delivery riskMagicbricks research shows that consumer are willing to pay more for ready-to-move (RM) options as compared to under-construction (UC) properties. They’re willing to pay a premium on completed projects rather than expose themselves to delivery risk as project delays lead to additional financial burden. This preference is reflected in the price differential between UC and RM properties. Our national level index for tracking pricing of RM and UC properties shows that at a pan India level, RM properties command an average 7% premium over UC properties.

This also means that Ready-to-Move-in properties, whether in the primary or secondary market, have higher probability of transaction as compared to fresh bookings. The graph below shows the spread of properties by construction status as well as nature of transaction (New versus Resale).

As the graph shows, the resale segment is dominated by RM properties. The predominance of resale options under RM properties category indicates that many buyers who had made purchase from an investment perspective are looking to exit their investment. With end-users looking for RM options to protect themselves from project completion risk, it is likely that many investors with RM properties see this as the best opportunity to liquidate their asset(s).

propindex.magicbricks.com VOL6, ISSUE 3; OCT-DEC, FY 2016-1702

[Resale Market Putting Pressure Across Most cities]

Market ImpactOn Price:lAs more investors look to exit the market,

the resale segment will continue to put downward pressure on price in these cities – both for existing projects and new launches

l Many investorys are simply looking for a n opportunity to exit a stagnent market. Under such circumstances, the sellers are likely to be more flexible with their pricing. This means buyers have RM options available in resale market at rates which might be lower than quoted rate by the developer

l As long as significant number of such options are available in the resale market,

the prices in the primary market will remain under pressure

l Impact on price will be more in case if cities like Gurgaon and Noida with high number of resale options than Bengaluru or Hyderabad. In case of latter, the price will continue to be determined by demand-supply dynamics in the primary market

On Inventory:l High number of resale options also

aggravate the problem of unsold inventory as these options compete with the unsold inventory

l Large number of resale options in RM projects take the demand away from UC projects. One set of inventory is getting sold

multiple times while another set with the developers remains unsold

ConclusionTransaction activity in the resale segment gives depth to the primary segment. It allows investors to book profit and unlock their capital. However, in present scenario where transaction activity is low and consumers are looking for ready-to-move options, the resale segment is likely to do better than the primary market and continue to put pressure on the primary market. Given the large percentage of resale properties available in the market, this situation is likely to persist in short to medium term.

VOL6, ISSUE 3; OCT-DEC, FY 2016-17 propindex.magicbricks.com03

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CONTACT USl Post your feedback to -

propindex @timesgroup.com

l Join our discussion forum at - openhouse.magicbricks.com

l For business enquiries - sales@magicbricks.com

l You may also share your opinion with #PropIndex on our Twitter handle @magicbricks or connect with us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/magicbricksTOI

D I S C L A I M E R

Every effort has been made to make this Index as complete and as accurate as possible. MagicBricks accepts no responsibility for inaccuracies in the information/data contained in this book. It shall have neither liability nor responsibility to any person or entity with respect to any loss or damage

caused, or alleged to have been caused, directly or indirectly, by the information contained in this book. The information/data in this book is subject to change from time to time due to market condition.

PROPINDEX TEAMl Content & Research:

E Jayashree Kurup, Subodh Kumar, Rohit Vats, Devendra Lohmor, Bhawna Mongia, Namrata Ekka, Renu Arya, Preeti Sharma, Puneet Kukreja & Bikash Kumar

l Layout Design: Harsha Khattar