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Forewarned Is Forearmed eTravel meets Strategic Foresight Roumiana Gotseva, MBA ITB Berlin - March 9, 2017
CENTER for
STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT
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Trend Watching:
Scanning the external
environment for early signals of change as they
unfold in the present
Scenario Thinking:
The art of the possible –
imagining and reframing the
baseline (‘most likely’) future,
exploring alternative futures
Organizational Change:
Opening up future possibilities by
experimenting with different ways of
being in the present – influencing the
future
ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight [email protected] March 9, 2017
Trend watching: Sharing Economy, Big Data, Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, Wearables, Gamification, Cognizant Computing
TREND WATCHING
March 9, 2017 4 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight [email protected]
Sharing Economy
Augmented Reality
Wearables
Gamification
“A trend is a trend is a trend… till it bends” Scenarios – provocative hypotheses built on change in the conditions of change
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Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Scenario 3
Open societies
Closed societies
Prosperity Scarcity
• Outward-looking • Global cooperation • Globalization
• Resource depletion • Extreme weather • Water crisis • Failed climate
change mitigation • Political unrest • Refugee crises &
migration • Economic
polarization • Safety net failures • Social security crises • Terrorist threats • Inward-looking
• Protectionism • Politics of fear • Barriers to trade
• Rising middle classes • Technological
breakthroughs • New materials • Alternative fuels • Successful climate
change mitigation • Medical breakthroughs • Youth employment &
skills • Culture of innovation,
initiative & empowerment
• Global trade • Multiculturalism • Neoliberal values
• Rising tariffs • State & regional competition • Outdated global governance systems • Traditional values
Reference: Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, Terry Collins, (2007) "The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques", Foresight, Vol. 9 Iss: 1, pp.5 - 25 March 9, 2017
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Sharing the love
We’re in this
together
Open societies
Prosperity Scarcity
Closed societies
March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight [email protected]
CLA: Causal Layered Analysis
8 Reference: Inayatullah, Sohail (2004) The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology
• Level 1: ‘Litany’ — quantitative trends & problems as usually presented by the news media. Events, issues, and trends are not connected and appear discontinuous. The litany level is the most visible and obvious, requiring little analytic capability. Assumptions are rarely questioned.
• Level 2: ‘Systems’ — concerned with systemic causes, including social, technological, economic, environmental political, and historical factors. This level excels at technical explanations as well as academic analysis. The data is often questioned; however, the language of questioning does not contest the paradigm within which the issue is framed, but remains obedient to it.
• Level 3: ‘Worldview’ — The third, deeper level is concerned with discourse/worldview that supports and legitimates it (population growth and civilizational perspectives of family; lack of women’s power; lack of social security; the population/consumption debate, for example). The task is to find deeper social, linguistic, and cultural processes that are actor–invariant (not dependent on who the actors are) and to some extent system–invariant. Discerning deeper assumptions behind the issue is crucial here, as are efforts to revision the problem. At this stage, one can explore how different discourses (ideologies, worldviews as expressed through civilizations, and epistemes, for example) do more than cause or mediate the issue, but constitute it.
• Level 4: ‘Metaphor’ — The fourth layer of analysis is at the level of metaphor or myth. These are the deep stories, the collective archetypes — the unconscious and often emotive dimensions of the problem or the paradox (seeing population as nonstatistical, as community, or seeing people as creative resources, or the fear of being swamped by outsiders, for example). This level provides a gut/emotional level experience to the worldview under inquiry. The language used is less specific, more concerned with evoking visual images, with touching the heart instead of reading the head. This is the root level of questioning. This fourth layer takes us to the metaphorical level of identity.
March 9, 2017
CLA: Sharing the Love
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Scenario 1: Open Systems / Prosperity
• Level 1: Litany – “Diseases of Affluence Reversed – Wellness Tourism Targets VR-coholics”
• Level 2: Systems – STEEP • Society is multifaceted; identities - fluid • Technology in service of progress • Economy bustling • Environment stretched but coping • Politics: democracy, global governance intact or revised
• Level 3: Worldviews / Discourses – Neoliberal discourses obscuring current-day ‘Have-Nots’
• Level 4: Metaphor – “Everyone’s a Winner, Baby”
eTravel in service of progress: bigger, better, faster
Sharing economy goes upscale
Smart everything; augmented tourism – the new normal
March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight [email protected]
CLA: We’re all in this together
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Scenario 2: Open Systems / Scarcity
• Level 1: Litany – “Google Launches GreenJet: the long-haul budget airline that runs on solar energy, serving wildlife preserving honeymooners to the Arctic”
• Level 2: Systems – STEEP • Society in motion & green • Technology in service of resilience • Economy – minimal social income; purposeful organizations, CSR • Environment hurting but cared for • Politics of sustainability
• Level 3: Worldviews – dominant discourse of care, responsibility and sustainability. Shadow discourses of cynicism and perception of exploitation
• Level 4: Metaphor – “Animate Earth”
eTravel in service of sustainability:
Sharing economy expands
Augmented eco-tourism + gamification = edutainment
March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight [email protected]
CLA: We’re all in this together
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Scenario 3: Closed Systems / Scarcity
• Level 1: Litany – “Parliament Passes a Bill on Mandatory Aeroponics: plan your next vacation on your balcony”
• Level 2: Systems – STEEP • Society co-dependent on political leadership; ‘learned helplessness’ • Active but subversive underground movements • Technology in service of survival & security • Economy struggling, isolationist & protectionist practices • Environment under severe & growing pressure • Politics of fear, paternalism, neo-totalitarian
• Level 3: Worldviews – Dominant discourse of fear and scarcity; shadow discourses of liberation, hope and power dynamics
• Level 4: Metaphor – “Stockholm Syndrome” (capture bonding)
eTravel substitutes physical travel – tourism is domestic or virtual reality
Gamification in travel replacing travel
Wearable technology – jamming devices?
Tourism contracts with governments and companies for ‘hostel holidays’ for local populations
Small segment of uber- luxury smart tourism serving political elites
March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight [email protected]
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HELENA RESORT – Sunny Beach, Bulgaria
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CLA: Gilded Cage
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• Scenario 4: Closed Systems / Prosperity
• Level 1: Litany – “America First, China First, Russia First – Who Wants to Be Second?”
• Level 2: Systems – STEEP • Society smug • Technology in service of comfort • Economy thriving and local • Environment ok • Politics of power, strength, isolationism, nationalism
• Level 3: Worldviews – official discourse of dominance; alternative discourses fractured and silenced
• Level 4: Metaphor – “Taking Care of Our Own”
eTravel in service of comfort – tourism is domestic and high-end
Tourism contracts with governments and companies for local populations – everyone is an elite
Small segment of uber-luxury smart tourism serving international elites & celebrities in total privacy and secrecy
March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight [email protected]
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Sharing the love
We’re in this
together
Open societies
Prosperity Scarcity
Closed societies
March 9, 2017 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight [email protected]
Organizational Transformation Not change management
Human-centric collective intelligence processes
March 9, 2017 18 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight [email protected]
March 9, 2017 19 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight [email protected]
World Café
March 9, 2017 20 ITB Berlin 2017 Forewarned Is Forearmed Roumiana Gotseva, MBA Center for Strategic Foresight [email protected]
Appreciative Inquiry
CLA: Causal Layered Analysis of a Preferred Future
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• Level 1: ‘Litany’ — start with new invented headlines of a preferred future
• Level 2: ‘Systems’ — examine the systems dynamics and project unintended consequences
• Level 3: ‘Worldview’ — figure out the alternative worldviews and deal with possible shadows
• Level 4: ‘Metaphor’ — or start with a new metaphor of a preferred future
Backcast to the present
Plan possible actions
Initiate change / small wins
Monitor change / adjust actions / tactics / strategies
March 9, 2017
Thank you! Roumiana Gotseva, MBA
Founder & Managing Director, Center for Strategic Foresight LTD
Member of the Supervisory Board,
International Asset Bank AD
Email: [email protected]
Phone: +359 (0) 896.685239
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