Forests, Resources for the Future A French Perspective

CARNUS JEAN-MICHEL INRA Bordeaux Aquitaine Stockholm, 25 octobre 2013

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BORDEAUX

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OUTLINE

CONTEXT Climate change French forestry Impacts of climate change

REGIONAL CASE STUDY past present future

FUTURE PERSPECTIVES challenges scenarios policies

« Thinking globally, acting locally » (Penser lobal, agir local, Jacques Ellul)

CONTEXT global > national

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Forests and Climate Change Global context

• rapid climatic change is a contemporary reality (5th IPCC report 2013 ..)

• major role of forests in carbon cycles and in influencing earth systems (UNFCCC, CBD, UNCCD, 2008)

• sensitivity and vulnerability of forestry sector to CC issues: • increasing biotic and abiotic damages • variations in productivity (+/-) • socio-economic vulnerabilities

• opportunities for forest & wood sector to contribute to low carbon bioeconomies

• deforestation, forest degradation and GHG emissions (# 20%) rapid climate change and global warming are major issues for future forests and a key

theme in science and policy development at national & international levels (Forestry and Climate Change, 2008, OECD; IUFRO TF 2010-2014)

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Forestry and Climate Change Global context

Forest carbon sequestration potential # 25 % GHG emissions

IPCC 2007: Rapid climate change has started since 20 years - comparisons of observed temperature data (dark line) with results from two simulations (without GHG emissions (blue) and with GHG (pink))

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Forestry and Climate Change Global context

FAST INCREASING GHG EMISSIONS • Carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)

• Acceleration in global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions

– 2012 largest annual growth on record

• Above A 1 IPCC scenario

• Increasing N2O and CH4 emissions (25 x greater warming potential* than CO2

Source: Global Carbon Project, 2011

*for a 100 year time-horizon (it’s 77 x greater for a 20 year horizon)

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Forestry and Climate Change Global context

Forest carbon sequestration potential # 25 % GHG emissions

high resolution - tree species map of European forests

planted forests

mountain forests

Mediterranean forests

atlantic/continental lowland forests

a wide range of climatic and ecological conditions (N-S and Atlantic-continental transitions ..and the largest “European” tropical forest)

a long tradition of silviculture and multi-functionality with increasing contrasts in management regimes

major threats due to climate change predicted for S and SW- areas

French Forests

3 rd largest forest area in EU (16 Mha) dominant private ownership (75%) fragmented forest property (3,4 M owners) diversity of species and habitats multiple products and ecosystem services high wood and biomass production potential heterogeneity of wood-based industries low industrial valorisation wood products: 2nd largest deficit in trade

balance Importance of WBI for rural employment

French Forest-based Sector

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1. Climatic evolution (average temperature rise last century - +0,7

to 1,1 °C in France)

2. Vegetation phenological changes (longer growing season, earlier bud formation, leaf colouring...)

3. Forest productivity changes in combination with other factors

4. Changes in vegetation distribution (spatial, altitudinal; + 150 m for Aleppo pines in SE France last century..)

5. Biotic and abiotic risks

Observed impacts Impacts of CC on French forests

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2Growth index

Beech2

Beech 1 Oak1

Oak 4

(Bontemps, Dhote, 2009)

Increasing trends with depression cycles (droughts,..) Differences in species responses Regional effects (climate, N deposition … )

Oak 1 Oak 4

Beech 2

Beech1

Retrospective assessment of tree growth

Evolution of growth index for average stands of Aleppo pine (around 400 m of altitude in pink circles and red line) and Scots pine (around 1100 m of altitude, in blue diamonds and curve) during the 20th century.(Vennetier, 2005)

Retrospective assessment of tree growth Growth index

2000 2050 2100

▆▆ G1 : Alpine ▆▆ G6 : Chestnut ▆▆ G2 : Sub Alpine ▆▆ G7 : Maritime pine ▆▆ G3 : Fir ▆▆ G8 : Green oak ▆▆ G4 : Beech

Changes in distribution of tree species groups

Impact of climate change on biotic risks Pine processionary moth

Impacts of climate change on abiotic risks Forest fires: increase of sensitivity to summer fires in 2040 (Rapport interministériel, 2010)

Maps of sensitivity to forest fires: 1989-2008 et à l’horizon 2040

Sensitivity of South-West in 2040 = sensitivity of South-East today

Source : rapport de la mission interministérielle « Changement climatique et extension des zones sensibles aux feux de forêt », 2010

Source EFI ATLANTIC

Gardiner et al. 2010

Estimated areas affected by

most damaging storms in Europe

(1950-2010)

REGIONAL CASE STUDY _02

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French Regional Case Study

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Regional forest-based sector

1,8 Mha (44 % land use)

importance of forest-based sector

32000 people employed

3,5 billion € annual revenue (# wine sector)

25 % national wood production (timber, packaging, panelling, pulp)

100 % national kraft pulp production

first region for barrel production

1 M ha of certified forests

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Landes of Gascony Forest Historical development

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Landes of Gascony Forest Historical development

Productivity increase of 5 to10 m3 /ha-yr in 50 yrs

1 2

3

4

5

0 : breeding & plant production 1 : soil preparation 2 : planting and P fertilisation 3 : thinning and vegetation control 4 : thinnings and vegetation control 5 : clear cut + inter rotation

année 0 : fertilisation ploughing planting

années 2-7: thinning

années 5-10 : thinning

années 10-35: commercial thinnings

années 40-50 : clear cut

Landes of Gascony Forest Standard management regime

DECEMBRE 1999 STORM -Aquitaine JANUARY 2009 STORM

FUTURE PERSPECTIVES _03

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Source: CRPF Aquitaine

Regional foresight study

Context low fertility area and traditional long rotation (> 40 yrs) for maritime pine production cycle strong complementarities between local industries for wood resource sharing mainly private ownership (>90%)

Current issues and threats high vulnerability of monospecific planted forest to climatic events and biotic threats increasing tensions on wood resources uncertainties about private owners strategies after storms SFM and Intensification of management for biomass production

Trends & opportunities development of multiple functions for forests and diversification of management regimes climate change awareness and volontary carbon markets increasing demands for biomass for energy development of regional forest policies

Maritime Pine attacked by bark beetle (Source: Sud-Ouest)

What can be the scenarios for Landes of Gascony Forest in 2050 ? (Mora, 2013)

Regional impacts of climate change Droughts: increase of average temperatures, decrease of annual rainfall, increase of water deficit (Climator, 2010 & Jouzel, 2011)

Scenario A1B 2020-2050 2070-2100

Temperatures +1,44 °C +2,83°C

Mean Rainfall -73 to -146 mm -182 to -219 mm

Evolution of maritime pine productivity in France based on GRAECO model and regionalisation method type tps, under scenario climatique A1B

Impacts on productivity of maritime pine: – 20 to 40 % after 2050 (Climator, 2010)

3 climatic scenarios considered in Climator (Source Bosc, 2011)

Source Bosc, 2011

INTENSITY OF CLIMATIC SCENARIO

Diffuse urbanization around metropolis and along the coast

Attractivity of rural and coastal areas

Densification of metropolitan areas and urban hospitality

Network of cities and market towns

1. Mobilities and Urbanization

2. Dynamics of economic activities

3. Wood chain

4. Forests

5. Agriculture and agro-industries

6. Natural resources management and land-use planning

7. Governance and territorial organisations

Residential economy with migrant and alternating workforce

Residential attractivity of rural-coastal areas, economic engine for innovation

low density areas dedicated to productive activities

Territories combining residential economy and productive activities

concentration of activities around biomass and cellulose production for energy&chemistry sectors

creation of added-value through innovative SMEs and reorganisation of the wood sector

forest and wood sector serving the euroregion for energy, construction, and ecosystem services

Diversification of wood products for local needs and exports

Intensive forest management alternatives for dendrobiomass production

adaptation and protection of maritime pine forests with broadleaves in edges and islands

forest planning with segregation of functions for ecosystem services, wood production and recreation

Patchwork of diversified forests and landscapes with open areas

Concentration of agricultural enterprises and agro-ressources industries

Interdependance of agriculture and industries for development of quality

Agriculture dedicated to euroregion needs (energy, food)

Territorial agricultural systems and diversified value chains

artificialization of soils and competing uses of natural resources

natural and cultural heritage in coastal and rural areas

environmental zoning for resource protection and land-use planning

integrated ecosystem management and land-use planning

Metropolitan power served by their hinterlands

Public/private partnership and contract between territories

Euro-region planification in synergy with metropolis

Territorial fora and regional coordination

REGIONAL SCENARIOS Opportunities and laissez-faire

Attractivity and quality

Grand Euroregion and self-sufficiency

Patchwork and diversity

hypothesis of evolution – 2050 SCENARIOS System components

Scenario 1 : Opportunities and « laissez-faire » pursuit of peri-urbanisation and lack of coordination between actors

Metropolitan pole

Urbanization spread around metropolis

Scattered coastal urbanization

Mobilisation of bioresources

Tensions on land resources

Concentration of biomass industries

Export of products on international markets

Dendrobiomass production forests

FORESTS & FORESTRY SECTOR in SCENARIO 1 Forests: intensive forest management regimes for dendrobiomass production (coppice systems, new tree species..) – land-use changes and deforestation Forest-Wood chain : - multinational companies (energy, chemistry) - concentration of activities around biomass and cellulose production and processing - disappearance of small forest owners

Scenario 2 : Attractivity and quality Attractivity of coastal territories and quality of products and landscapes

metropolitan area

coastal-rural system

SME and high added-value industries

Forests for production of high-quality wood

Demographic and economic attractivity

FORESTS & FORESTRY SECTOR in SCENARIO 2 Forests: adaptation and protection of maritime pine stands with broadleaves in edges and islands – forests remain the dominant land-use Forest-Wood chain : -creation of added-value through innovative SMEs -reorganisation of the wood sector with new players -payments for forest carbon credits and recreation services.

Scenario 3 : Grand Euroregion and self-sufficiency Large European Region self-sufficient for food and energy

Processing pole and transport platform

Forests for wood production and ecosystem services

Biomass production areas

metropolitan pole and densely populated crown

Green belt for agriculture and amenities

Axis for flux of people and goods

FORESTS & FORESTRY SECTOR in SCENARIO 3 Forests: Long rotation maritime pine production in remote areas. New Species (Robinia, Eucalyptus…) for biomass production. Mixed forests for recreation closed to the cities Forest-Wood chain: - role of macro-actors: cooperatives, investment funds, international companies…. - processing activities concentrated near transport platform -planification of forest-based activities for the service of the euroregion (energy, construction,..)

Scenario 4 : Patchwork and diversity Mosaic of territories and diversity of forest value chains

metropolitan pole

network of urban centres

territorial forum and cluster of economic activities (industry, agriculture, forests)

FORESTS & FORESTRY SECTOR in SCENARIO 4 Forests: Mixed tree species at landscape scale including maritime pine and broadleaf species. Forests remain dominant land-use in many territories Forest-Wood chain: - territorial forums including forestry component - innovative organisation of forest-wood chain actors - diversification of wood-based products for local needs and exports

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Scenarios and Forest Types Forest vulnerability in different scenarios

Scenario 1 : Opportunities and « laissez-faire » Forest type: New Species (Robinia, Eucalyptus…) for biomass production and maritime Pine half dedicated to biomass production Vulnerability : - Low vulnerability to storm - High vulnerability to pests and diseases (easy spreading), fire (continuity of canopies), and droughts (short rotation intensive culture) - Flexibility and capacity for rapid adaptation to climate change

Scenario 2 : Attractivity and quality Forest type: Long rotation maritime Pine production with broadleaves edges and patches for protection against pests and diseases mostly Vulnerability : -High vulnerability to storm (high trees) -Low vulnerability to fire (good fire fighting system) and pests and diseases (broadleaves edges and patches) - Risk of mortalities in case of reccurent droughts

Scenario 3 : Grand Euroregion and self-sufficiency Forest type: Long rotation maritime Pine production in remote areas. New Species (Robinia, Eucalyptus…) for biomass production and maritime Pine half dedicated to biomass production close to transportation networks. Mixed forests closed to the cities Vulnerability : -High vulnerability to storm of further forests and low vulnerability to storm of forests for biomass production. -High vulnerability of all forests to fire (homogeneity and continuity of canopies), to pests and diseases (monoscpecific forests)

Scenario 4 : Patchwork and diversity Forest type: Mixed tree species at landscape scale including maritime pine and broadleafspecies Vulnerability : - dependant on the patchwork of different land-uses. - Forest damages can occur at local scales - diversity of forest types will reduce forest damages at larger scale, whatever hazard is concerned

(Mora et al, 2013, AFS)

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1. interministerial national programme 2. new gouvernance mechanisms 3. forest and wood strategic fund 4. wood and biomass mobilisation 5. increased wood in construction 6. forest investment (fiscal, insurance)

Industrial plan for wood-based industries (60000 jobs)

Towards a new national forest policy in France in line with new EU forest strategy

Thank you for your attention