Foresight and the CGIAR

Views from the ISPC

Foresight Studies

Slide 10

Abstract

Real

Un

der

stan

din

g

Cre

ativ

ity

and

A

nal

ysis

Co

nve

rgen

ce a

nd

S

ynth

esis

R

ealiz

atio

n a

nd

C

om

mit

men

t

Communication

Res

ear

ch

Demand & Scope

Diagnosis

Future Alternatives Priorization and Positioning

Strategy and Actions

Ex-ante evaluation and Implementation

Imp

lem

enta

tio

n

§ Demand characterization – iidentify and define (fframe / reframe) question(s) (challenge/problem) to be addressed

§ Define scope, existing and necessary inputs, associated results and impacts, as well as governance and communication/dissemination strategy

§ Define possible system evolution (inside-in to outside-out) and/or possible (technological) solutions to challenge/problem being addressed

§ Images and future trajectories ought to be broad, including the development of disruptive alternatives

§ Understand the context under analysis (system and interrelationships, as well as stakeholders, including users)

§ Understand the relationship between context and its evolution from the past and future trends

§ Define criteria to prioritize solutions and/or elements from diverse future alternatives in order to devise a joint vision or select the adequate solution(s) to the problem/challenge at hand

§ Converge into a collective vision of the future

§ Define a strategy and associated actions to attain the defined vision and/or to build resilence towards different future alternatives and/or to develop and implement selected solutions

§ Develop indicators to monitor evolution and required adaptation

§ Define how expected results and associated impacts should be evaluated and monitored in time

§ Develop a workplan for implementation detailing the key foresight aspects in each phase, including the need to contract consulting services

Intelligence

services for

ST&I

Shared visions

Grand Challenges

Technology observatory

Knowledge platform

• Strategic nature • Complexity • Diversity of opinions • Reduction of

uncertainties

Processes to accelerate decision-making • Tools and Methods • Methodologies • Automation • Visualization • Modularity and

flexibility Slide 4

Pre-foresight

Information and Knowledge Management

Tools for the fast creation of taxonomies

based on a huge amount of information

coming from a large number of specialized sources

Ferramenta de monitoramento e análise de dados

• Curva de Fontes e Tipos

Trend analysis

Strategic Evaluation

Tools for the monitoring and analysis of very large amounts of data over

time (week signals and emergency)

2007 2014

INCT on Climate Change – network evolution

2007 2014

INCT Pharmaceutical Innovations – network evolution

CIAT (729) – IITA (403) Organizations

Co-authorship

CIAT (729) – IITA (403) Authors (1rst aut.)

Bibliographic coupling (co-cite)

CIAT (729) – IITA (403) Authors

Co-citation (co-cited)

CIAT (729) – IITA (403) Sources

Co-citation (co-cited)

CIAT (729) – IITA (403) Cited refs

Co-citation

Terms

Terms

Technology Assessment

Social Network Analysis to identify talents and promote integrations

Network Analysis to Identify Talents

• Lattes database with 4M registered curricula

• Curricula as nodes, co-authorships and semantic similarities of academic production as edges

• Portrayal of the research networks

• Identification of main researchers, academic brokers

• and subject areas from large amounts of data

Relational analysis

Integrates global-local information

Qualitative and quantitave

framework

• Your goal • Your task • Your

question

Data Collection

Network Analysis

Interpretation Intervention

• 584 nodes;

• 1510 vertices;

• 9 clusters Knowledge

Management

Health

Artificial Intelligence

Physics

Ecology

Software

Development

Data Managemen

t

Electric Engineering Network

Engineering

Exploring Collaboration with RAND