2013

2005

“When I saw this comparison for the first time, I was amazed. I started to think how the next

picture would look like. While I wonder about future, I am trying to imagine the next picture. My

aim is to contribute to the future next technologies as much as I can.”

Papal conclave – Crowd at St. Pietro Basilica in 2005 and 2013

(Image sources: Reuters, AP)

2

Forecasting the Next Generation Wireless Communication Systems E.Yilmaz, May 2014

Today the world faces rapid changes. Technology and the economy are the key drivers of

these fascinating changes.

Throughout the human history, economy has shaped the fate of the development. In the

first ages where the economy was based on sharing goods in a communal order, the pace of the

advancement was weak and there was no economic activity worth considering. After a long time

passed, the world witnessed the industrial revolution in the nineteenth century and from that

time on, growth in every area has been increasing.

Governments gave up investing in costly programs in the aftermath of the cold-war era.

This was the milestone for the advancement which we have experienced for two decades. Now, we

enjoy technological advancements which the new innovations generated.

It is impossible to tell whether growing global wealth leads the growth in the technology

or the technological developments help to create more wealth in the world. But as one can

estimate that there is a strong cohesion between the growing economy and the advances in the

technology.

Graph-1: Sum of the national incomes per person (GDP/capita, PPP$ inflation-adjusted) i

Current picture

I came across a surprising example of the growing tech world recently: a comparison

which compares two papal conclaves happened in 2005 and 2013. I was amazed, when I saw those

two pictures. The first one was taken roughly eight years ago from the latter one, but it was like

another world. It is hard to see any smartphone, mobile camera or any other today’s

“communication” devices around in the first picture. When it comes to the latter one, there were a

lot of people carrying high-end tech devices in their hands in order to capture or share one of the

historic moments in the world. That change happened in a time period which is not more than a

decade.

One can see that latter picture as an increase in the demand for the entertainment

devices. But what I see is more about development. There are economic and technological

elements behind the change which could be seen in the pictures. If we analyze the scene more

deeply, we can see the footprints of the growths in the wealth and technology.

While I wonder about the future, I am trying to imagine the next picture. How could it be,

how the future demands which will arise would be met in a manageable way?

The next picture

As can be seen from the statistics supplied by different telecommunication operators and

vendors around the world (Graph 2), the volume of the voice traffic is stagnated today. But global

data traffic is constantly growing since the smart devices were released. There is no doubt that

the growth in the data traffic will increase, as more smart devices enter the market and more

user access to the mobile broadband connections.

0

3

Mill

ion

s U

.S.

Do

llar

Worldwide Income Growth(1950-2010)

3

Undoubtedly, in the next picture there will be more devices. Not only phones, tablets and

cameras, but there will be more connected and smart-devices. They will be in a fascinating

variety of forms. The internet of things is just becoming widespread with new innovations. ii

Future Demands and the Obstacle

In the near future, there would be some demands which we should fulfill. One of the

serious problems we probably experience will be the shortage of the available spectrum for

demanded data connections. The bandwidth of the current systems will be overwhelmed thanks

to the skyrocketing data traffic. So, the real challenge would be, to sustain ever-increasing data

traffic demands with new approaches for the wireless communication networks.

Without giving a solution to that demand problem, we cannot provide the infrastructure

for the tech world in order to make new flourishing growths real in the future.

Solution to the Big Problem

I will argue, herein, the possibility of one certain solution to the problem that we will

encounter in the future. My approach is a multi-tiered wireless communication system, which

uses different frequency bandsiii at the same time to meet user demands in the suitable cases. It

is similar to heterogeneous network approach but more compact and smarter one. Heterogeneous

networks, beside their inarguable advantages in some cases, create serious integration problems.

Management of those kinds of open-ended systems could be tough within the extensive usages.

Basically, my idea is to provide the ability of using different frequency bands and maybe

spectrums as broadcasting medium for each wireless transmitter station in the mobile

communication.

Graph-2: Change in the data and voice traffic by year (Data source: Ericsson AB iv)

Instead of using different type of radio access methods in a network, using a unique and

uniform system is the future. The distance level of the user to the station could be the key

parameter for the base station in deciding which spectrum or the frequency band would be used

in the access side.

While a transmitter can access to a user in the near area by using the high frequencies, at

the same time it could be able to access to a user in a relatively far distance by using the low

frequency bands. This approach is sufficient for many different scenarios, for instances:

In data hungry clusters such as highly populated location of the cities, providing

this kind of frequency band diversity would create diversity in the bandwidth

among the users.

Operators are deploying new technologies such as LTE for the rural areas since

the sites using old technologies need to be upgraded. Digital dividend bands are

used to operate in rural and remote areas. A transmitter, which provides the

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Tot.

(U

L+D

L) P

eta

by

tes

Global Mobile Traffic distirubiton (2007-2014)

Voice Data

4

ability of using different frequency bands at the same time specific to users, could

overcome both coverage and high-speed data connection problems.

Finally, as can be seen from the Graph 1 global economy could be on the edge of the future

stagnations. I believe there is a strong cohesion between global economy and the developments in

the technology. From the Silk Road to the new highways; from the American railroad expansion

to the deployment of global fiber optic networks, communication links are the main pillars of the

economic development.

For the secure future of the developments, I believe we need to invest into new approaches

for the mobile communication systems. I briefly wanted to discuss an idea which I believe would

help to ease some problems we will face in the near future. In practice, there are both structural

(technological improvements) and financial (spectrum auctions) challenges for now. But they are

not the problems which could not be overcome. There are vast opportunities in solving those

obstacles.

i Data-set provided by Gapminder.org, “Gross Domestic Product per capita by Purchasing Power Parities (in international dollars, fixed 2005 prices),” https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=phAwcNAVuyj1jiMAkmq1iMg&gid=1 ii I.F. Akyildiz, J.M Jornet, "The Internet of Nano-things," IEEE Wireless Communications, vol. 17 iss. 6, pp. 58–63, Dec.

2010. iii T.S Rappaport, et al. "28 GHz millimeter wave cellular communication measurements for reflection and penetration loss in and around buildings in New York city," in IEEE International Conference on Communications (ICC), 2013, p.5163 iv Ericsson Mobility Report, Aug. 2013 & Feb. 2014.