Forecasting TOP 3 Cancer Rate in each gender for New Insurance Products Design

104064538 Kuan-Yu Chen‧104078504 I-Chun Chao‧104078701 Edward Song105078510 Tseng Yen-Ju ‧105078517 Lai Yi-Wei

Team 4

Forecasting GoalWe would like to provide Insurance Companies the

forecasts of TOP 3 cancer crude rate each gender for 4 years.

The GoalsBusiness GoalThe forecasts can be used for designing better

insurance products which can really help patients to gain compensation they deserved.

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Why we interest in this Topic:Cancer Insurance Dilemma▹ Medicare doesn’t compensate that much because of the strict

compensation policy.▹ The cancer insurance products come out, but patients’ pain points still

remain.▹ Example A woman with breast cancer. (True Story!)

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Compensation the insurance company they will give you

Be in hospital 1,000/day

If you die 300,000

The fee have to be use in the whole treatment

surgery 140,000

Be in hospital 2,000/day

Injection 6,400/month

Big Gap

Our ProcessData

Source

• Cancer Crude Rate• 1979~2013• From ministry of heath and welfare

AddExternal

Info

• Try different relevant external data to models

• Exclude at last

Try models&

evaluation

• Try 5 models(naïve, Holt, arima, netural network, regresion, ensemble)

• Matrix generation

GenerateForecasts &

intervals

• Rolling-forward• Plot histograms• Compute intervals• Generate Forecasts• Ensemble vs. Best one

Male Colorectal Cancer Top 1 in 6 series

Other Series- Male2nd Liver & 3rd Lung

Other Series- Female1st Breast, 2nd Colorectal & 3rd Lung

Recommendation

▹Top 3 Cancer forecasts as Prototypes – Freemium Ensemble ( one time ) vs. Best Model ( premium ) ▹Cancer Portfolio Insurance Design

Customers’ risk ↓ & Compensation Receive ↑ Insurance Company can make profit in long run

▹Marketing Strategy & CSR Campaign (CSR- Corporate Social Responsibility)