forecasting the future for profit
TRANSCRIPT
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© Copyright 2014 Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd
Forecasting the Future for Profit
Jonathan Davenport
Milner Strategic Marketing
18th June 2014
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© Copyright 2014 Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd
Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd.
• Clients want help with market
analysis, strategy and marketing
programmes
• Extensive experience of
forecasting markets with high
levels of accuracy
• I have built 36 market models
over the last 6 years with forecast
models containing ~15m cells
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© Copyright 2014 Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd
Blockbuster faced an innovator’s dilemma. It made a
mistake and a market forecast might have saved it!
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© Copyright 2014 Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd
Consumer behaviour can be predicted (sort of)
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© Copyright 2014 Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd
Scenario planning allows possible futures to be
hypothesised based on different market drivers
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© Copyright 2014 Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd
Total market size is forecast for each country
The forecast is derived based
on:
– Historic film viewing data
– Seasonality
– Diffusion of Innovation
– Country demographics
– Technological developments
– Macro environmental drivers
2008 2018F
ilm C
on
su
mp
tion (
m)
Forecast
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© Copyright 2014 Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd
The full model contains a variety of interlinked
forecast elements that are specific to your market
Price Point Share
2008 2018
£0.99 - $1.99
Ma
rket S
ize (
Price
Po
int)
$2.00 - $2.99
$3.00- $3.99 etc
2008 2018
DVD Rental
Streaming
DVD Purchase
Cinema
Ma
rket S
ize (
$3
.00
-$
3.9
9, M
ix)
Media mix by Price
Point
2008 2018
Netflix
Amazon
Blockbuster
Ma
rket S
ize (
$3
.00
-$
3.9
9, M
ix,
Pro
vid
er)
Provider by Media
mix by Price Point
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© Copyright 2014 Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd
The countries are aggregated to provide summary
information. Checks are performed to ensure accuracy
Global
US LATAM Europe Australia
Country 1 Country 2 Country 3 Rest of ...
External Data
Sources
Model Assumptions
Exte
rna
l D
ata
Sourc
e C
heck
Se
nse
Ch
eck
e.g. CIA, The Economist, FT, World Bank, Census, WHO, etc
Asia China
Forecasting
Accuracy Check
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© Copyright 2014 Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd
The model provides a detailed understanding of future
consumer and competitive behaviour
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© Copyright 2014 Milner Strategic Marketing Ltd
Forecasting the future for profit
A single picture of market behaviour will
help you invest in the right markets
and target the right segments at the
right time
This will result in:
- increased sales volumes
- reduced costs
- time efficiencies
- and better company-wide strategic
alignment