forecasting scour related mine burial using a parameterized model
DESCRIPTION
Forecasting Scour Related Mine Burial Using a Parameterized Model Carl T. Friedrichs and Arthur C. Trembanis Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA Approach Use NOAA WW3 model to forecast local wave height (calibrated with Wiberg) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Forecasting Scour Related Mine Burial Using a Parameterized Model
Carl T. Friedrichs and Arthur C. Trembanis
Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA
Approach
Use NOAA WW3 model to forecast local wave height (calibrated with Wiberg)
Use Whitehouse scour model (“DRAMBUIE”) to predict scour (calibrated with Elmore et al.)
Post on web predicted burial since start of IRB experiment including 5-day forecast
Conclusions
Rapid scour occurs for increasing Ub > 1.25 Ucr
Rapid burial follows when Ub drops below 0.75 Ucr
Weather forecasts may introduce more uncertainty than burial model
Web forecasts provide inputs (wave height, orbital velocity, wind) for other modelers
Interactive web-based program provides insight into parameter sensitivity
(Friedrichs, C.T., and A.C. Trembanis, 2003. Forecasting scour related mine burial using a parameterized model.
ONR Mine Burial Prediction 3rd Annual Meeting, St. Petersburg, FL, 28-29 January )
Hours Since January 8 2003 12:00 zulu
Min
e B
uria
l (pe
rcen
t)R
MS
Wav
e O
rbita
l V
eloc
ity (
cm/s
)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Sig
nific
ant W
ave
Hei
ght (
met
ers)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5000
10
20
30
40
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5000
20
40
60
80
1.25 Ucr
0.75 Ucr
Bmin = 0.1
Rapid burial follows when Ub drops
below 0.75 Ucr
Noon EST Tues Jan 28= Hour 485
Rapid scour occurs for increasing
Ub > 1.25 Ucr
Thin colored lines = hindcasts/forecasts updated every 12 hrs o = Latest available hindcast/forecast as of hour 384
Sequence of Hindcast/Forecasts of Waves and Burial for Indian Rocks Beach Field Site
(D = 0.47 m, d = 0.19 mm, fw = 0.008, h =12 m, Tw = 7 s, Ub = 0.28 Hs /[sinh(kh)]
Sequence of Hindcast/Forecasts of Waves and Burial for Indian Rocks Beach Field Site
(D = 0.47 m, d = 0.19 mm, fw = 0.008, h =12 m, Tw = 7 s, Ub = 0.28 Hs /[sinh(kh)]
Hours Since January 8 2003 12:00 zulu
Min
e B
uria
l (pe
rcen
t)
Thin colored lines = hindcasts/forecasts updated every 12 hrs o = Latest available hindcast/forecast as of hour 384
RM
S W
ave
Orb
ital
Vel
ocity
(cm
/s)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Sig
nific
ant W
ave
Hei
ght (
met
ers)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5000
10
20
30
40
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 5000
20
40
60
80
Bmin = 0.1
Revised forecasts of wave height lead to drastic
changes in forecast burial
Weather forecasts may introduce more uncertainty
than burial model(!)
Interactive Mine Burial Model Using WW3 Forecasts for IRB Field Site
Accessible via www.vims.edu/~cfried/MBP