forecasting. planning forecast customer production process finished goods inputs
TRANSCRIPT
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ForecastingForecasting
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Planning Forecast
Customer
ProductionProcess
FinishedGoods
Inputs
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Forecasting
Marketing: forecasts sales for new and
existing products.
Production: uses sales forecasts to plan
production and operations; sometimes
involved in generating sales forecasts.
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Characteristics of Forecasts
They are usually wrong A good forecast is usually more than a single
number Aggregate forecast are more accurate The longer the forecasting horizon, the less
accurate the forecasts will be Forecasts should not be used to the exclusion
of known information
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Forecasting Horizon
Short term(inventory management, production plans..)
Intermediate term(sales patterns for product families..)
Long term(long term planning of capacity needs)
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Forecasting Techniques
JudgmentalModels
Time SeriesMethods Causal Methods
ForecastingTechnique
DelphiMethod
MovingAverage
ExponentialSmoothing
RegressionAnalysis
SeasonalityModels
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Types of forecasting Methods
Subjective methodsFREE HAND METHOD
Objective methodsSEMI AVERAGE
EVEN DATA ODD DATA
LEAST SQUARETREND MOMENT
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FREE HAND METHOD
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SEMI AVERAGEEVEN DATA
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Y = a + bX
No. Year
Sales (Y-axis) Base time
(X-axis)
1 1988 1850 0 ∑ 1-6 = 11520
2 1989 1800 1 Y1 1920
3 1990 1900 2 X1 2.5
4 1991 2000 3
5 1992 1950 4
6 1993 2020 5 a= 3514.81 and b= 291.72
7 1994 1980 6 ∑ 7-12 = 11979
8 1995 1960 7 Y2 1996.5
9 1996 2000 8 X2 8.5
10 1997 2200 9
11 1998 2240 10
12 1999 2220 11
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SEMI AVERAGEODD DATA
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No. Year
Sales (Y-axis) Base time
(X-axis)
1 1988 1850 0 ∑ 1-5 = 9500
2 1989 1800 1 Y1 1900
3 1990 1900 2 X1 2
4 1991 2000 3
5 1992 1950 4
6 1993 2020 5 a= 1868 and b= 16
7 1994 1980 6 ∑ 7-11 = 9980
8 1995 1960 7 Y2 1996
9 1996 2000 8 X2 8
10 1997 2200 9
11 1998 2240 10
Y = a + bX
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TREND MOMENT METHOD
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LEAST SQUARE METHOD
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EVEN DATA CASE