Forecasting NOAA’s

Future

Forecasting NOAA’s

Future

Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.)Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans & AtmosphereD.C. Chapter of AMSFebruary 27, 2006

Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.)Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans & AtmosphereD.C. Chapter of AMSFebruary 27, 2006

Forecasting NOAA's Future—AMS DC Chapter 2

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NOAA Vision & Mission

Current Events

NOAA Opportunities

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NOAA’s Vision

An informed society that uses a comprehensive understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts and atmosphere in the global ecosystem to make the best social and economic decisions

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NOAA’sMission & Goals

To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and to conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet the Nation’s economic, social and environmental needsMission Goals:

Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through an ecosystem approach to management

Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond

Serve society’s needs for weather and water information Support the Nation’s commerce with information for safe,

efficient, and environmentally sound transportation Provide critical support for NOAA’s mission

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Current Events

NOAA Budget

Hurricane Response

Science in the Media

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$3.6$3.6$3.3$3.2

$2.4

$2.8$3.1

$3.4

$3.9$3.9$3.7

$3.3$3.3$3.1

$2.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007

President’s Budget Enacted

NOAA Budget

($ in Billions)

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Current EnvironmentAppropriations Reorganization a

Surprise

NOAA will now be considered by both the Senate and House subcommittees with:

=$16.5B FY ‘06 budget request

=$5.6B FY ’06 budget request

=$3.6B FY ’06 budget request

Although budget allocations should cover all of the requests, it is ultimately up to the Subcommittees to divvy up the money

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Summary by Line Office

$ in millions

Line OfficeFY 06

Enacted

FY 07 Current

Program

Net Program Increase

FY 07 President’s

Budget

Percent Change (over Current

Program)

NOS $590.5 $369.1 $44.1 $413.1 11.9%

NMFS $811.5 $656.6 $81.1 $737.7 12.4%

OAR $379.6 $310.4 $38.2 $348.7 12.3%

NWS $848.2 $838.4 $43.5 $881.9 5.2%

NESDIS $952.2 $916.4 $117.4 $1,033.9 12.8%

PS/Other $491.0 $385.1 $21.0 $406.1 5.5%

Total $3,911.5 $3,338.8 $345.4 $3,684.1 10.3%

*Total includes financing adjustments

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Hurricane Response

One NOAA response Forecasts Wetland assessment (satellites) Citation flights – digital imagery NRTs – NOAA Ships Oil spill response Environmental assessment cruises

August 31, 2005 provided by NOAA

Levee breakLevee break

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Science in the Media

Max Mayfield

Robert Ricks

NWS Lead Meteorologist, Gerry Bell

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NOAA Opportunities

GEOSS

NWS Tiger Teams

NOAA Education

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NOAA

NOAA’s mission is complex, involving biological, chemical, and physical issues—all intertwined.

Large-scale (regional to global) multidisciplinary studies are necessary to achieve understanding of our environment.

A collective NOAA is critical to completing our mission and solving the major environmental challenges that face our nation and planet.

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GEOSSIntegrated Observations & Data

Management

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GEO Moves ForwardWorking Towards Implementation

Received approval for formal GEO organization and 10-year implementation plan

Held GEO-I in May 2005, and GEO-II in December 2005 New GEO Secretariat Director, Jose Achache Agreed to 2006 Work Plan and adopted a budget Formally created GEO Committees GEONETCast as tangible near term project to implement GEOSS United States announced intention to move GOES satellite to a

position to help offset the lack of sounder data over South America

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USGEONear-Term Opportunities

USGEO focusing on 6 Near-Term Opportunities Disasters Drought / National Integrated Drought Information System Land Observation Air Quality Sea Level Data Management

Currently developing plans for all the Near-Term opportunities

Will be available for public review in the next several months

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Near Term Opportunity

Disasters—Tsunami Warning System

USGEO Near-Term Opportunity

Improved tsunami and coastal inundation forecast and warning capability

GEO Near-Term Effort Working Group on Tsunami

Activities continuing to provide integration observation requirements to the Indian Ocean Tsunami Early Warning System effort

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Near Term Opportunity

National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)

Identifies critical gaps in the nation’s infrastructure, which inhibit our ability to most effectively reduce the impact of drought Early opportunities to address gaps include:

Improvements in the frequency, timeliness, and density of key observations

Creation of an Internet portal to provide a drought early warning system Establishment of a NIDIS operations office to ensure optimization of

existing Federal, state, local and private sector observations and information delivery

Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas Water Resource Management Disasters Sustainable Agriculture Climate Variability and Change

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Near Term Opportunity

Land ObservingIdentifies three enhancements that would be the basis of a functional GLOS:

Mid-decadal global data set of high resolution (30m) satellite imagery in 2006

Global land data base at high resolution (30m) and the seasonal collection of such data (i.e., continuity of Landsat-type observations)

Extension of a network (Global Integrated Trends Analysis Network) that combines ground data and earth observations from aircraft and space to evaluate land cover trends

Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas: Terrestrial Ecosystems Climate Variability and Change Disasters Biodiversity Sustainable Agriculture/Combating Desertification

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Near Term Opportunity

Air QualityNoting that more than one-third of the U.S. population lives in areas that have unhealthy air quality (AQ), causing an estimated tens of thousands of deaths and costing society more than $100B, this plan identifies need for:

Integrated Observation-Model Air Quality Fields Systems for Utilizing Observations to Improve AQ Forecasts Assessments of Key Air Quality Processes Improved Emissions Inventories Improved International Transport Assessments

Tracks to GEOSS and IEOS benefit areas: Human Health Weather Forecasting Climate Variability and Change

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NWS Tiger Teams

IT Consolidation Team

Concept of Operations Prototype Team

Aviation Demonstration Team

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NOAA Education

NOAA’s Environmental Literacy Grants (new in 2005)Ernest F. Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship Program (new in 2005)

110 students coming this summer! 2006 applications due out this spring!

Interagency Ocean Education Coordination (new in 2006) Expand NOAA’s Authority for Education

NOAA Organic Act – build on education authorization in the 2006 appropriations bill

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The Future is Bright!

NOAA is: An Effective, Successful Organization With World-wide

Recognition Composed of Talented, Experienced & Dedicated People Critical to Meeting the Nation’s & the World’s Economic &

Environmental Challenges Organizationally Positioned to Provide Leadership Where Science Gains Value

Questions?

Questions?