forecasting flight traffic at eurocontrol in unprecedented times business analytics
DESCRIPTION
A presentation on how Eurocontrol is using SAS to forecast flight traffic. See http://www.business-analytics.bizTRANSCRIPT
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Forecasting Flight Traffic at Eurocontrol in
Unprecedented Times
Dr David MarshManager, Forecasting and Analysis
EUROCONTROL
Andrew PeaseAnalytics Solutions Manager
SAS EMEA Data Management and Analytics CoE
Let’s take a ride…
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Eurocontrol Gonna’ Work It Out….
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European Air Traffic Management
Responsibility of States Charging of aircraft operators Cost-recovery Collaborative
Design goals for the 2020 System Capacity handle 3 times traffic Safety factor 10 improvement Environment - 10% effects / flight Costs to airspace users - 50%
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Challenge: Eurocontrol customers need more forecasts to plan,
manage and decide Air traffic organisations Law-makers and regulators Airlines Airports Manufacturers Research institutes and universities Banks & other financial institutions Others
Globally Air traffic management in Europe : €7 Billion / year Air transport delays: €6 Billion in 2006
Of which, air traffic: €1 Billion
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Constantly Growing Challenge
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2009
Medium-Term Forecast
Statistics
Short-TermForecast
Forecast Monitor
Industry Monitor
Long-Term Forecast
Traffic Analysis
Facts-on-Demand
Service Unit Forecast
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First Technical Challenge:Combining Data on 10m Flights Per
Year
Flight Plans- scheduled- actual
Radar Data
Landings, Take-Offs- agreed slots- actual
Airlines
Air traffic control
Airports & States
Flight Datawarehouse
Statistics
Forecasts
Analysis
Original
Seasonal
Trend-Cycle
Irregular
Second Technical Challenge:Generating Thousands of Forecasts
Third Technical Challenge:Regularly Publishing Results in
Reports
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Solution
Delegation Consolidation Simplification Systematisation
Above all Automation Analysis
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Back To Forecasting:Three Forecasts, Many Techniques
Trends
Economy Low-Cost CarriersAirport Capacity High-Speed Train
Load Factors, Aircraft Size
PriceDemography, HubbingFree Trade, Open Skies
Environment...+ +
1 – 2 years 7 years 20 years
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Short-Term Challenge:What is trend? What is noise?
Time series Future is like the past Exceptions? Repetitions? Significant?
Calendar Days in month, working days Easter + Holidays
Strikes Weather Football, rugby, Olympics Timetables, Schedule changes Volcanoes, Storms SARS, Bird Flu, Mexican Flu Kosovo Sep 11th
Oil price Delays New systems Mergers Deregulation Visa rules Aircraft deliveries New runways etc, etc
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Importance of different factors in Long-Term Forecast
Conclusions
Eurocontrol has growing forecasting demands
Forecasting team is the same size
Able to use more data Using more analytic techniques To automatically generate
thousands of forecasts And allow analysts to spend
time....analyzing
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