Forecasting Forecasting Demand for Demand for

ServicesServices

2

Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives Recommend the appropriate Recommend the appropriate

forecasting model for a given situation.forecasting model for a given situation. Conduct a Delphi forecasting exercise.Conduct a Delphi forecasting exercise. Describe the features of exponential Describe the features of exponential

smoothing.smoothing. Conduct time series forecasting using Conduct time series forecasting using

exponential smoothing with trend and exponential smoothing with trend and seasonal adjustments.seasonal adjustments.

3

Delphi Forecasting Delphi Forecasting ExerciseExercise

In what future election In what future election will a woman become will a woman become

President of the United President of the United States?States?

4

Year 1st Round 2nd Round Final Round

2004

2012 22

2016 44 2

2020 2 2 2

2024 3 2 2

2028 3 4 2

2032 2 3 4

2036 2 3 4

2040 2 2 4

2044 3 4 3

Never 1 2 3

5

Delphi MethodDelphi MethodNuclear Power Industry Nuclear Power Industry

ExampleExample11 66 55 66 1515 3535 66

No No jdgmt.jdgmt.

StrongStrongly ly

disagr.disagr.

DisagrDisagr..

Disagr. Disagr. SomewSomew

h.h.

UncertUncert..

Agree Agree somewsomew

h.h.

AgreeAgree StrongStrongly ly

agreeagree

RounRound 1d 1

RounRound 2d 2

RounRound 3d 3

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86

Series1

Historical Analogy

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Series1

Series2