forecasting chapter 6 7e m anagerial e conomics f u n d a m e n t a l s o f © 2003...
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Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning6–3 Time-Series Characteristics: Seasonal Pattern and Random Fluctuations Figure 6.1bTRANSCRIPT
Forecasting
Chapter 6
7E
MANAGERIALECONOMICS
F U N D A M E N T A L S O FF U N D A M E N T A L S O F
© 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning
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PowerPointPresentation
byCharlieCook
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–2
Time-Series Characteristics: Secular Trend and Time-Series Characteristics: Secular Trend and Cyclical Variation in Women’s Clothing SalesCyclical Variation in Women’s Clothing Sales
Figure 6.1aFigure 6.1a
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–3
Time-Series Characteristics: Seasonal Pattern Time-Series Characteristics: Seasonal Pattern and Random Fluctuationsand Random Fluctuations
Figure 6.1bFigure 6.1b
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–4
Microsoft Corp. Sales Revenue, 1984Microsoft Corp. Sales Revenue, 1984––20012001
Figure 6.2Figure 6.2
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–5
Gross Domestic Product, 1959Gross Domestic Product, 1959–Present–Present
Figure 6.3Figure 6.3
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–6
Composite Composite Indexes of Indexes of
10 Leading, 10 Leading, Four Four
Coincident, Coincident, and Seven and Seven
Lagging Lagging Indicators Indicators
(1987 + 100)(1987 + 100)
Figure 6.4Figure 6.4Source: The Conference Board Web site at http://www.conference-board.org
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–7
The National The National Bureau of Bureau of Economic Economic ResearchResearch
Web Site Is a Web Site Is a Treasure Trove Treasure Trove
of Forecast of Forecast InformationInformation
Figure 6.5Figure 6.5
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–8
Resources for Resources for EconomistsEconomists
on the on the Internet Is a Internet Is a
Valuable Valuable Forecasting Forecasting ResourceResource
Figure 6.6Figure 6.6
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–9
Barron’sBarron’s Publishes Timely Publishes Timely Information on Information on
Economic Economic IndicatorsIndicators
Figure 6.7Figure 6.7
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–10
Nine Nine Common Common Trends in Trends in Economic Economic
Time Time Series Can Series Can
Be Be Forecast Forecast by Using by Using Exponen-Exponen-
tial tial Smoothing Smoothing MethodsMethods
Figure 6.8Figure 6.8
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–11
The Appropriate Forecast Technique The Appropriate Forecast Technique Tends Tends
to Vary over the Life Cycle of a Productto Vary over the Life Cycle of a Product
Figure 6.9Figure 6.9
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–12
Gross Domestic Product 1966Gross Domestic Product 1966–2000–2000
Figure ST6.1Figure ST6.1
Fundamentals of Managerial Economics 7e © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning 6–13
Multiple RegressionMultiple Regression
Figure ST6.2Figure ST6.2