forecast working group « apples and pears » 10/03/2008
DESCRIPTION
Forecast working group « Apples and pears » 10/03/2008. European Commission – DG AGRI – Unit C.2. Outline. I. New elements in the statistical working documents. Data on prices – more detailed. Data on trade – switching from EU evolutionary to EU 27 simulated (COMEXT data). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Forecast working group « Apples and pears »
10/03/2008
European Commission – DG AGRI – Unit C.2
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Outline
I. New elements in the statistical working documents.
1. Data on prices – more detailed.
2. Data on trade – switching from EU evolutionary to EU 27 simulated (COMEXT data).
II. EU imports of fresh apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia.
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I.1. Data on apples and pears prices - more detailed
Details by main varieties Details by representative markets
NB: It is not always appropriate to compare prices in different MS as they may have chosen different methodology to record prices pursuant to Regulation 877/2004.
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Old way of presenting prices in the DTR – one average price per MS including all varieties and markets
GRAPHIQUE 5.1 : Prix à la production - Italie (€/100 kg)
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
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New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by individual variety on main EU markets
Graph 5.22: Prix à la production de pommes - Gala Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
juil
05ao
ût 0
5se
pt 0
5oc
t 05
nov
05dé
c 05
janv
06
févr
06
mar
s 06
avr
06m
ai 0
6ju
in 0
6ju
il 06
août
06
sept
06
oct 0
6no
v 06
déc
06ja
nv 0
7fé
vr 0
7m
ars
07av
r 07
mai
07
juin
07
juil
07ao
ût 0
7se
pt 0
7oc
t 07
nov
07dé
c 07
janv
08
févr
08
mar
s 08
avr
08m
ai 0
8ju
in 0
8
€/1
00
kg
AT (Gleisdorf)
BE (Sint Truiden)
DE (Niedersachsen)
ES (Girona)
ES (Lleida)
FR (Rhône-Méditarranée)
FR (Sud-Ouest)
FR (Val de Loire)
HU (Budapest)
IT (Bolzano)
NL(Geldermalsen)
PL (Lubelsko-Sandomierski)
PL (Grojecko-Warecki)
PT (Oeste)
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New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by individual variety on main EU markets
Graph 5.23: Prix à la production de pommes - Golden Delicious Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
€/10
0kg
AT (Gleisdorf)
BE (Sint Truiden)
DE (Niedersachsen)
ES (Girona)
ES (Lleida)
FR (Rhône-Méditarranée)
FR (Val de Loire)
HU (Budapest)
IT (Bolzano)
NL (Geldermalsen)
PL (Lubelsko-Sandomierski)
PL (Grojecko-Warecki)
PT (Oeste)
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New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by separate varieties in individual MS
Graph 5.35: Prix à la production de pommes pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) IT - Italie
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Elstar
Gala
Golden Delicious
Granny Smith
Jonagold
Red Delicious
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New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by separate varieties in individual MS
Graph 5.34: Prix à la production de pommes pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) FR - France
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Elstar
Gala
Golden Delicious
Granny Smith
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New way of presenting prices in the DTR – by separate varieties in individual MS
Graph 5.31: Prix à la production de pommes pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) BE - Belgique
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Elstar
Gala
Golden Delicious
Granny Smith
Idared
Jonagold
Red Delicious
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Graph 5.13: Prix à la production de poires - Conférence Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
€/10
0kg
BE (Sint Truiden)
ES (Lleida)
ES (Zaragoza)
FR (Angers)
FR (Valence)
HU (Budapest)
IT (Ferrera)
IT (Modena)
NL (Geldermalsen)
PL (Grojecko-Warecki)
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Graph 5.14: Prix à la production de poires - Doyenné du Comice Cat I - dans les principaux marchés européens (2005, 2006 et 2007) [€/100kg]
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
€/10
0kg
BE (Sint Truiden)
ES (Lleida)
FR (Angers)
FR (Avignon)
FR (Valence)
IT (Ferrera)
IT (Modena)
NL (Geldermalsen)
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Graph 5.22: Prix à la production de poires pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) ES - Espagne
0,00
10,00
20,00
30,00
40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
90,00
Abate Fétel
Blanquilla
Conférence
Doyonné du Comice
Williams (Bon Chrétien)
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Graph 5.24: Prix à la production de poires pour les principales variétés (€/100 kg) IT - Italie
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
140,00
Abate Fétel
Conférence
Doyonné du Comice
Williams (Bon Chrétien)
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2. Data on trade – switching from EU evolutionary to EU 27 simulated
The simulation disregards the date on which MS joined the EU (data available from 1999 onwards);
Extra EU 27 trade excludes the quantities exchanged between old and new MS but includes new MS’s trade with third countries;
Intra EU 27 trade includes the quantities traded between all 27 MS.
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Extra EU trade in fresh apples - EU 27 simulated (T)
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
1.000.000
1.100.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Imports EU 27simulated
Exports EU 27simulated
Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)
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EU imports of fresh apples (T)
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Imports EUevolutionary
Imports EU 27simulated
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EU exports of fresh apples (T)
0
100.000
200.000
300.000
400.000
500.000
600.000
700.000
800.000
900.000
1.000.000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Exports EUevolutionary
Exports EU 27simulated
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II. EU imports of fresh apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia
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Extra EU imports of fresh table apples (T)
Share in total2007
New Zealand 220.032 178.240 177.161 -0,6% 19,8%Chile 225.465 224.645 204.113 -9,1% 22,8%South Africa 156.842 151.872 158.379 4,3% 17,7%Argentina 121.536 97.640 107.248 9,8% 12,0%USA 39.857 30.600 28.610 -6,5% 3,2%Brazil 88.323 53.456 104.403 95,3% 11,6%Canada 5.558 4.460 2.083 -53,3% 0,2%Australia 2.136 2.940 1.294 -56,0% 0,1%Switzerland 690 971 2.324 139,4% 0,3%
FJR Macedonia 8.294 24.146 33.689 39,5% 3,8% Serbia 306 282 24.597 8637,8% 2,7% Croatia 9 18 2.723 15284,2% 0,3%Turkey 551 607 230 -62,1% 0,0%Uruguay 6.662 3.596 6.174 71,7% 0,7%China 50.408 33.649 42.063 25,0% 4,7%Iran 217 322 174 -46,0% 0,0%South Korea 0 0 - Namibia 21 0 - Autres 3.926 6.974 1.280 -81,6% 0,1%TOTAL 930.831 814.417 896.543 10,1% 100,0%Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)
2005 2006 2007 07/06
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Share of hemispheres in total EU imports of table apples
2005 2006 2007South Hemisphere 88,2% 87,5% 84,6%North Hemisphere 11,8% 12,5% 15,4%
Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)
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Extra EU imports of fresh table apples by hemisphere (T)
Share in total2007
Hémisph. Sud 821.017 712.389 758.771 6,5% 100,0%New Zealand 220.032 178.240 177.161 -0,6% 23,3%Chile 225.465 224.645 204.113 -9,1% 26,9%South Africa 156.842 151.872 158.379 4,3% 20,9%Argentina 121.536 97.640 107.248 9,8% 14,1%Brazil 88.323 53.456 104.403 95,3% 13,8%Australia 2.136 2.940 1.294 -56,0% 0,2%Uruguay 6.662 3.596 6.174 71,7% 0,8%
Share in total2007
Hémisph. Nord 109.814 102.028 137.772 35,0% 100,0%USA 39.857 30.600 28.610 -6,5% 20,8%Canada 5.558 4.460 2.083 -53,3% 1,5%China 50.408 33.649 42.063 25,0% 30,5%Switzerland 690 971 2.324 139,4% 1,7%
FJR Macedonia 8.294 24.146 33.689 39,5% 24,5% Serbia 306 282 24.597 8637,9% 17,9% Croatia 9 18 2.723 15282,5% 2,0%Turkey 551 607 230 -62,2% 0,2%Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)
2005 2006 2007 07/06
2005 2006 2007 07/06
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EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia (T)
PartnerDeclarant/period 2005 2006 2007 2007/06 2005 2006 2007 2007/06
France 0 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands 0 0 0 0 0 0Fr Germany 0 0 0 0 0 0Italy 0 0 0 0 0 0Utd. Kingdom 0 0 0 0 0 0Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0Denmark 37 5 0 -100% 0 0 0Greece 75 258 899 249% 0 0 0Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0Spain 0 0 0 0 0 0Belgium 0 0 0 0 0 0Luxembourg 0 0 0 0 0 0Sweden 3 0 5 0 1 0 -100%Finland 0 0 0 0 0 0Austria 0 0 0 111 0 333Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0Estonia 0 0 0 0 0 0Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 0Lithuania 0 0 0 0 0 0Poland 0 0 455 0 0 19.177Czech Republic 0 0 0 11 0 266Slovakia 0 0 898 0 0 109Hungary 0 0 1.534 0 0 4.321Romania 81 9.428 7.253 -23% 155 0 264Bulgaria 8.098 14.456 22.869 58% 0 194 410 112%Slovenia 0 0 10 28 87 21 -76%Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 0EU-27 8.294 24.146 33.923 40% 306 282 24.901 8746%
Source: COMEXT (EU-27 simulated)* Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006
For.JRep. Macedonia Serbia*
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EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from Serbia and FJR Macedonia (T)
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
Sep
. 200
4O
ct. 2
004
Nov
. 200
4D
ec. 2
004
Jan.
200
5Fe
b. 2
005
Mar
. 200
5A
pr. 2
005
May
. 200
5Ju
n. 2
005
Jul.
2005
Aug
. 200
5S
ep. 2
005
Oct
. 200
5N
ov. 2
005
Dec
. 200
5Ja
n. 2
006
Feb.
200
6M
ar. 2
006
Apr
. 200
6M
ay. 2
006
Jun.
200
6Ju
l. 20
06A
ug. 2
006
Sep
. 200
6O
ct. 2
006
Nov
. 200
6D
ec. 2
006
Jan.
200
7Fe
b. 2
007
Mar
. 200
7A
pr. 2
007
May
. 200
7Ju
n. 2
007
Jul.
2007
Aug
. 200
7S
ep. 2
007
Oct
. 200
7N
ov. 2
007
Dec
. 200
7
FJR Macedonia
Serbia*
Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated); *Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006
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EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from FJR Macedonia
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
Sep
. 200
4O
ct. 2
004
Nov
. 200
4D
ec. 2
004
Jan.
200
5F
eb. 2
005
Mar
. 200
5A
pr. 2
005
May
. 200
5Ju
n. 2
005
Jul.
2005
Aug
. 200
5S
ep. 2
005
Oct
. 200
5N
ov. 2
005
Dec
. 200
5Ja
n. 2
006
Feb
. 200
6M
ar. 2
006
Apr
. 200
6M
ay. 2
006
Jun.
200
6Ju
l. 20
06A
ug. 2
006
Sep
. 200
6O
ct. 2
006
Nov
. 200
6D
ec. 2
006
Jan.
200
7F
eb. 2
007
Mar
. 200
7A
pr. 2
007
May
. 200
7Ju
n. 2
007
Jul.
2007
Aug
. 200
7S
ep. 2
007
Oct
. 200
7N
ov. 2
007
Dec
. 200
7
T
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
€/kg
imports - T
unit value -€/kg
Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated)
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EU-27 imports of fresh table apples from Serbia*
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
Sep
. 200
4O
ct. 2
004
Nov
. 200
4D
ec. 2
004
Jan.
200
5F
eb. 2
005
Mar
. 200
5A
pr. 2
005
May
. 200
5Ju
n. 2
005
Jul.
2005
Aug
. 200
5S
ep. 2
005
Oct
. 200
5N
ov. 2
005
Dec
. 200
5Ja
n. 2
006
Feb
. 200
6M
ar. 2
006
Apr
. 200
6M
ay. 2
006
Jun.
200
6Ju
l. 20
06A
ug. 2
006
Sep
. 200
6O
ct. 2
006
Nov
. 200
6D
ec. 2
006
Jan.
200
7F
eb. 2
007
Mar
. 200
7A
pr. 2
007
May
. 200
7Ju
n. 2
007
Jul.
2007
Aug
. 200
7S
ep. 2
007
Oct
. 200
7N
ov. 2
007
Dec
. 200
7
T
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
€/kg
imports - T
unit value -€/kg
Source: COMEXT (EU 27 simulated); *Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006
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EU-27 imports of fresh cider apples from FJR Macedonia and Serbia (T)
Partner
Declarant/period 2005 2006 2007 2007/06 2005 2006 2007 2007/06France 0 0 0 0 0 0Netherlands 0 0 0 0 0 0Fr Germany 0 0 0 61 1.224 606 -51%Italy 0 0 0 0 0 118Utd. Kingdom 0 0 0 0 0 0Ireland 0 0 0 0 0 0Denmark 0 0 0 0 0 0Greece 0 1 0 -100% 0 0 0Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0Spain 0 0 0 0 0 0Belgium 0 0 0 0 0 0Luxembourg 0 0 0 0 0 0Sweden 5 0 0 0 0 0Finland 0 0 0 0 0 0Austria 0 0 482 0 0 250Malta 0 0 0 0 0 0Estonia 0 0 0 0 0 0Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 0Lithuania 0 0 0 0 0 0Poland 0 0 42 0 0 128Czech Republic 0 0 0 0 0 0Slovakia 0 0 311 0 0 0Hungary 0 0 2.739 1.257 0 13.796Romania 0 0 0 0 0 0Bulgaria 2.552 5.582 5.501 -1% 0 0 297Slovenia 0 0 0 0 0 70Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 0EU-27 2.557 5.583 9.076 63% 1.318 1.224 15.264 1147%Source: COMEXT (EU-27 simulated)* Serbia and Montenegro up to 31/05/2006
FJR Macedonia Serbia*