forecast working group, 22-10-2007 pipfruit market – review and recent development dr. wilhelm...

Forecast Working Group, 22-10-2007

Pipfruit market – review and recent development

Dr. Wilhelm Ellinger

ZMP, Bonn

2


2006 lowest crop for a long time

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

millio

n t

on

s .

NM

OM0,4 mln t

less in OMS

3


Moderate carryover provides for a good start

• Total supply from old crop (EU, S.H.) from July on at least 50.000 t, probably nearer to 100.000 t lower than in 2005

• Picking about 1 week delayed

• Prices until wk 36 more than 50% above 2005, but lower than in 2004

0

100

200

300

400

500

2003 2004 2005 2006

EU(6) stocks 1.7. Imp. S.H. July+

4


Concerns: good crops in backgardens

• Households operating backgardens were more self-sufficient in autumn 2006

• Not the only reason for weak demand: consumer prices increased (+2% vs. 04, +13% vs. 05)

vs. ´04 - 5% - 5%vs. ´05 - 29% - 6%

Hobby gardeners

Apple buyings Sep/Nov (Germany)

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006

kg

/HH

Hobby gardeners hh without backyard

5


Higher consumer prices affect demand (Ex. France)

6


Higher consumer prices affect demand (Ex. Germany)

0,8

0,9

1

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

'04/05

'05/06

'06/07

7


Demand has fallen all along the season (Ex. Germany)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Aug Okt Dez Feb Apr Jun

Apple buyings (1.000 t)

'04/05

'05/06

'06/07

Season 06/07-8 % vs. 05/06,

-domestic -6%,

-imported -13%

8


-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

%

EU average

Consumption EU 2006/07 falls to lowest level for years*

*) Latest available 12 month/52 wks househould panel data

9


Demand for apples fell most

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07

fruit

pears

apples

Household panel data 7 countries, 2003/04 = 100

10


Rather different reactions on price increase

Country Period 2006/07 vs. 05/06%)

price volume ratio

DE Aug-Jun + 10,2 - 9,1 -0,89

AT May-April + 19,1 - 16,8 - 0,88

FR Aug-Jun + 12,3 - 8,3 - 0,67

UK 52 w/e jun17 + 10,7 - 3,8 - 0,36

NL 52 w/e jun17 + 14,9 - 3,9 - 0,26

IT Aug-Apr + 3,0 - 0,6 - 0,20

ES Aug-May + 15,0 + 1,2 + 0,08

11


Concerns: higher imports might compensate for lower crop

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1.0

00 t

1999/00 2001/02 2003/04 2005/06p

Table apple imports EU-15 from extra EU-15

+ 85.000 t

12


Concerns: EU exports might suffer

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1.0

00 t

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06p 2006/07p

EU-15 table apple exports to Extra EU-15- 85.000 t

13


However, increase in trade deficit remained limited in EU-15

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

1.0

00 t

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06p 2006/07p

14


Balance even improved for EU-25

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1.0

00 t

2004/05 2005/06p 2006/07p

Imports

Exports

Balance

15


Unsatiable Russian market

(July/June; 1000 t)

04/05 05/06 06/07 %

World 758 715 883 + 23

EU-15 95 176 172 - 2

NMS 197 148 261 + 76

CIS 227 162 288 + 78

other 239 229 281 + 23

16


Decrease in consumption inevitable (EU-15)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1.0

00 t

Import surplus

Production (withdrawals excl.)

Remark: Consumption incl. processing!

Consumption according to- Supply balance sheet -3,3%- panel data -4,7%more to processing?

17


Result of the shortage: producer prices above 2005/06 (example weekly prices Germany)

Sales prices P.O. Lower Elbe / Lake of Constance table apples, class I

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

wk 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32

2006/07 2005/06 2004/05 2003/04

Euro/100kg

18


Result of the shortage: producer prices above 2005/06 (example prices German PO per season)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Euro/100kg

nom

real

But not as high as they ought to be taking into account the small supply !!!

19


Consumer behaviour has changed

Preis-Absatz-Relationen beim Apfel

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

6.800 7.000 7.200 7.400 7.600 7.800 8.000 8.200 8.400

Absatz EU-15 (1.000 t)

Pre

is d

t. E

O (

Gel

dw

ert

2000

) in

E

uro

/dt

06/07 05/06

04/05 99/0000/01

01/02

98/99

02/03

03/04

Linksverschiebung der Nachfragekurve= niedrigerer Preis bei gleichem

Angebot

20


Determinates for the 2007 pipfruit crop

• 2-3 frost waves in the NMS in April/May• Drought in April (except for ES): no scab

(+), low humidity → pollination (-)• Heatwave around Mediterranean, SE-

Europe, Southern parts of CIS• Above average hail damage in ES, UK,

BE, NL, DE, Po valley• Expansion of fireblight

21


Lowest apple crop since ? years

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005v

2006

2007f

1.0

00 t

EU-15

NMS-10

PL 1990 812.000 t HU lowest since more than 40 y LT since 2004CZ since 1998 SK lowest since state was founded

22


Are the forecasts still valid? (I)• BE/NL: PT increased apple/pear estimation by

5.000 t compared to Prognosfruit (enough?)• FR: lack of box pallets in SE, Agreste Oct 1 +3%

(Prognosfruit +1%), difference 30.000 t• DE: total of 1 miilion t might be met (record crops in

Niederelbe and Lake of Constance regions), difference 50.000 t

• IT: Vinschgau and Trentino underestimated (good sizes), total 2,2 mln t, difference 100.000 t

• ES: hail damage mid-September• UK: only +10% instead +15% (difference 10.000t)

23


Are the forecasts still valid? (II)

• CZ: orchards +6.000 t

• PL: volume unchanged, too big sizes, not suitable for storage

• HUN: ?

24


Apple supply balance sheet EU-15

1.000 t 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07p 2007/08 3) 2007/08 4)

Production 6.914 6.940 7.072 6.651 6.842 7.040

- withdrawals 32 26 26 9 5 10

= sales 6.882 6.914 7.046 6.642 6.837 7.030

+ imports Extra 1) 892 1.025 797 882 830 820

- exports Extra 1) 385 407 631 547 750 770

surplus imports 507 617 166 335 80 50= consumption 2) 7.389 7.531 7.212 6.977 6.917 7.080

1) 1.8. - 31.7. - 2) incl. for processing.

3) estimation. Production according Prognosfruit.- 4) estimation. Production updated.

25


Moderate carryover provides for a good start

• Total supply from old crop (EU, S.H.) from July on about 20.000 t or 5% bigger than in 2006

• Picking about 2 weeks earlier, that means considerably bigger new crop supply in Aug/Sept

• Prices wk 33-35 ¼ to 1/3 lower than in 2006, after-wards approaching to -4% (PO in DE). Av. price by wk 41 -6%

0

100

200

300

400

500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

EU(6) stocks 1.7. Imp. S.H. July+

26


DE: weekly table apple sales of major PO

01000

20003000

400050006000

70008000

900010000

34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

2007

2006

2005

up to wk 41+ 62% (vs.

2006)

27


Abgangspreise der Erzeugerorganisationen am Bodensee/Niederelbe für Tafeläpfel Klasse

I

Gewogenes Mittel aus:Bodensee = Gebietsabgabepreise

Niederelbe = Erzeugerabgabepreise

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Woche 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32

2007/08 2006/07 2005/06 2004/05

Euro/100kg

28


DE: consumers cautious in spite of price cut

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Aug 06 Sep 06 Aug 07 Sep 07

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

buyings (1000t)

price (€/kg)

Aug/Sep 07:06

Buyings + 1%

Expend. - 5%

Price - 6%

29


Demand still disappointing

DE: Number of apple buyers per week

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41

2005

2006

2007

30


In contrast: brisk demand in France

TNS-panel, Aug 13 – Sep 9

• 35,6% buyers, highest number in 9 years

• Buyings +10% vs. 2006, 12% above 8y-average

• Price +1% vs. 2006, +6% vs. 8y-average

• Expenditures +11% vs. 2006, +23% vs. 8y-average

31


PL: front-runner in juice apple prices

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

Zl/kg

fra

nco

pro

c. p

lant ......

2006

2007

32


Abgangspreise der Erzeugerorganisationen am Bodensee/Niederelbe für Mostäpfel

Gewogenes Mittel aus:Bodensee = Gebietsabgabepreise

Niederelbe = Erzeugerabgabepreise

5,00

7,00

9,00

11,00

13,00

15,00

17,00

19,00

21,00

23,00

Woche 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32

2007/08 2006/072005/06 2004/05

Euro/100kg

33


Absatzmengen der Erzeugerorganisationen am Bodensee/Niederelbe für Mostäpfel

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

100.000

Woche 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29

2007/08 2006/07

2005/06 2004/05

dt

34


World apple production at lowest level since 2002

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006p 2007f

China

others

35


Conclusions apple market(my statements at Prognosfruit)

• Extremely strong demand for juice apples expected as ajc stocks sold out and supply processing apples much lower

• High prices of juice apples will give an incentive to divert minor qualities to processing

• Shortage in NMS provides opportunity (for EU-15) to export more to NMS and Russia

• Competition from non-EU countries? lecture Mr.Peres• High probability that season average table apple prices

will increase further

?

36


37


Review pears 2006/07

• EU-15 crop underestimated (forecast 2,44 mln, final 2,56 mln t) biggest crop for years

• Disappointing quality (small sizes, rough skin …)• Consequently disappointing domestic consumption (-4%

in 7 OMS, hh panel data)• Pressure to expand exports (257.000 => 317.000 t)• Bad quality opened door for increased S.H. imports

(Extra-EU15 imp 311.000 => 340.000 t)• Low prices• Limits of growth or only a question of quality?

38


Hope for better season 2007/08

• Production slightly below average– IT lower than forecast (stocks E-R -12%, forecast -9%)

• Generally lower fruit set and better sizes

• „off-year“ in Southern Europe

• Production capacity in B/NL continues to grow

forecast working group, 22-10-2007 pipfruit market – review and recent development dr. wilhelm...

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