forecast the future - ethfansupyun-assets.ethfans.org/uploads/doc/file/3fd1e45... · fund sport...
TRANSCRIPT
forecast the future
Why? - building blocks
• building blocks like Identity, reputation, exchange, auctions, registry
• economic building blocks • interface into real world through
economic incentives • prediction markets
Identity
….
Registry
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT (HOLDS COLLATERAL UNTIL ONE OF THE
OUTCOME TOKENS IS REDEEMABLE FOR THE COLLATERAL)
Oracle
COLLATERAL TOKEN
TOKEN OUTCOME 1
TOKEN OUTCOME 2
TOKEN OUTCOME N
basic - functions• Put in n collateral -> create n of each outcome token
buy_all_outcomes() • Value of one outcome token always <= collateral (1)
• Redeem a full set of outcome tokens for the collateralredeem_all_outcomes() • value of complete basket is always 1
• Redeem winning outcome (only if oracle has set it)redeem_winning _outcome() • if resolved: winning outcome token = collateral • all others = value 0
Buy/ sell information – remove uncertainty
• price = forecast • fund automated market maker to have a price • creates an algorithmic order book • every trade will move the price • always a clear price (0 spread between buy and sell) • direct financial incentive to trade if you disagree with the
forecast (price)
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT (HOLDS COLLATERAL UNTIL ON OF THE
OUTCOME TOKENS IS REDEEMABLE FOR THE COLLATERAL)
When will Casper go live?
COLLATERAL TOKEN
before Q2 2017
Q2-3 2017
after Q2 2017
Creating an incentive – setting up a bounty
• Create an event on something you want to happen • sell/send/auction of tokens to those who can make it happen
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT “Bitlicense” changed
in NY in 2017
COLLATERAL TOKEN
YES NO
Hedging – insure yourself
• insurances = bets (fire insurance = bet that your house will burn down) • predict/bet on the event you want to hedge against
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Is the flight too late?
COLLATERAL (100)
YES (100) NO (100)
INSURANCE PREMIUM (10)
POTENTIAL PAYOUT (90)
Hedging – Challenges
• need to fully collateralise • no insurance in the world can cover ALL potential claims • building trustless systems is (relatively) easy with unlimited
capital • -> use basket of “no outcomes” as collateral
Collateral Basket
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Earthquake in SF
COLLATERAL (100)
NO Earthquake in India
NO Flood in Netherlands
Collateral Basket
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Earthquake in SF
COLLATERAL (100)
NO Earthquake in India
NO Flood in Netherlands NO Flood in SF
Collaterals in basket needs to be independent
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Will the price of ETH be 0
ETH
YES NO
dependencies
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Oracle
COLLA
TOKEN TOKEN
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
TOKEN
TOKEN TOKEN
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT Event A
COLLA
A 1 A 2
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
B1 B2 B1 B2
dependencies
Event BBASIC TOKEN
CONTRACT
A 1 A 2
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
B1 B2 B1 B2
Event BBASIC TOKEN
CONTRACT
• if independent B1A1/B2A1 = B1A2/B2A2 • no insurance in the world can cover ALL potential claims • -> use basket of “no outcomes” as collateral
B1A1 B2A1 B1A2 B2A2
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
Sun will shine tomorrow
COLLA
YES NO
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
YES NO YES NO
dependencies
Price of ETH> $20BASIC TOKEN
CONTRACT
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
POLONIEX hacked
COLLA
YES NO
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
YES NO YES NO
dependencies
Price of ETH> $20BASIC TOKEN
CONTRACT
To Govern – Futarchy
• framework for decentralized governance (of DAOs) • continuous market on an objective of the DAO • anyone can submit proposal • market will decide whether or not it gets more likely to achieve
the objective under the condition that the proposal is implemented • if so -> automatically implement the proposal
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
Gnosis platform volume > x
COLLA
YES NO
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
YES NO YES NO
Futarchy for the Gnosis Fund
Fund sport betting interface
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
Roadmap to – Futarchy
• measure how well forecasts for objectives perform • measure how well conditional forecasts perform • add incentives to manipulate • as soon as the Gnosis security audit is done we will start those
experiments
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
Win the Game?
COLLA
YES NO
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
move 1 move n
Can we challenge Alpha Go?
move 2
BASIC TOKEN CONTRACT
move 1 move n move 2
next move?
Meet us tonight for drinks
WeChat QR code slack.gnosis.pm