forecast 35

48
INPUTS OUTPUTS Number of Periods in Moving Average = Forecast Number of Periods of Data Collected = MSE = MAPE = MAD = LAD = Absolute Error Absolute Period Value Forecast Error Error Squared % Error

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Page 1: Forecast 35

INPUTS OUTPUTS

Number of Periods in Moving Average = Forecast =

Number of Periods of Data Collected = MSE = MAPE =

MAD = LAD =

Absolute Error AbsolutePeriod Value Forecast Error Error Squared % Error

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INPUTS OUTPUTS

Number of Periods in Moving Average = Forecast =

Number of Periods of Data Collected = MSE = MAPE =

MAD = LAD =

Past Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9Weighting

Absolute Error AbsolutePeriod Value Forecast Error Error Squared % Error

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10 11 12 13 14 15

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INPUTS OUTPUTS

Number of Periods of Data Collected = Forecast =Smoothing Constant (alpha) = MSE = MAPE =Initial Forecast Value = MAD = LAD =

Absolute Error AbsolutePeriod Value Forecast Error Error Squared % Error

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INPUTS OUTPUTS

Number of Periods of Data Collected = Period Forecast =

MSE = MAPE =MAD = LAD =

OUTPUTSPeriodForecast

Absolute Error AbsolutePeriod Value Forecast Error Error Squared % Error

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INPUTS OUTPUTS

Number of Periods of Data Collected = Period Forecast =

Smoothing Constant (alpha) =Smoothing Constant (gamma) = MSE = MAPE =Initial Forecast Value (Level) = MAD = LAD =

Initial Forecast Value (Trend) =

OUTPUTSPeriodForecast

Forecast Forecast Absolute Error AbsolutePeriod Value Level Trend Forecast Error Error Squared % Error

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PERIOD Time Period Quarter/quarter Travel expenditures soal a1 Three year ago 1 Summer 1172 2 Fall 1113 3 Winter 1834 4 Spring 1745 Two Year Ago 1 Summer 546 2 Fall 1687 3 Winter 2468 4 Spring 819 Last Year 1 Summer 123

10 2 Fall 20711 3 Winter 14712 4 Spring 19813 This Year 1 Summer 16214 2 Fall 12615 3 Winter 27016 4 Spring 198

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PERIOD (x) Season Y PERIOD (x) Season Y1 Summer 117 1 Summer 1172 Fall 111 2 Fall 1113 Winter 183 3 Winter 1834 Spring 174 4 Spring 174 5855 Summer 54 5 Summer 546 Fall 168 6 Fall 1687 Winter 246 7 Winter 2468 Spring 81 8 Spring 81 5499 Summer 123 9 Summer 123

10 Fall 207 10 Fall 20711 Winter 147 11 Winter 14712 Spring 198 12 Spring 198 67513 Summer 162 13 Summer 16214 Fall 126 14 Fall 12615 Winter 270 15 Winter 27016 Spring 198 16 Spring 198 756

year total travel expenditurethree year ago 585two year ago 549last year 675this year 756

soal b

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Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5Column 1 1Column 2 0.410078 1Column 3 -0.479247 -0.187867 1Column 4 -0.075671 -0.062622 -0.333333 1Column 5 0.529694 0.062622 -0.333333 -0.333333 1

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INPUTSNumber of Periods of Data Collected = 16Number of Seasons = 4

Seasonal FactorsValue Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

117 1 1 0 0111 2 0 1 0183 3 0 0 1174 4 0 0 0

54 5 1 0 0168 6 0 1 0246 7 0 0 1

81 8 0 0 0123 9 1 0 0207 10 0 1 0147 11 0 0 1198 12 0 0 0162 13 1 0 0126 14 0 1 0270 15 0 0 1198 16 0 0 0

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9 10 11

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SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.699957R Square 0.48994Adjusted R 0.304464Standard E 48.05654Observatio 16

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 4 24401.7 6100.425 2.6415276492288 0.091094Residual 11 25403.74 2309.431Total 15 49805.44

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Intercept 122.8125 36.0424 3.407445 0.0058516023932 43.48371 202.1413 43.483707607X Variable 3.99375 2.686442 1.486632 0.1652027919546 -1.919069 9.906569 -1.9190690788X Variable -36.76875 34.92375 -1.052829 0.3149971335583 -113.6354 40.0979 -113.63539802X Variable -1.7625 34.40324 -0.051231 0.9600602141283 -77.48353 73.95853 -77.48353031X Variable 52.74375 34.08713 1.547322 0.1500569818361 -22.28151 127.769 -22.281513364

a = 122.8125b=3.993375

RESIDUAL OUTPUT Y=a+bX

ObservationPredicted YResiduals Period Travel Expenditures1 90.0375 26.9625 Unadjusted2 129.0375 -18.0375 Next Year 17 Summer 190.706253 187.5375 -4.5375 18 Fall 194.74 138.7875 35.2125 19 Winter 198.693755 106.0125 -52.0125 20 Spring 202.68756 145.0125 22.9875 Next Two Years 21 Summer 206.681257 203.5125 42.4875 22 Fall 210.6758 154.7625 -73.7625 23 Winter 214.668759 121.9875 1.0125 24 Spring 218.6625

10 160.9875 46.012511 219.4875 -72.487512 170.7375 27.262513 137.9625 24.037514 176.9625 -50.962515 235.4625 34.537516 186.7125 11.2875

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Upper 95.0%202.1412923939.9065690788240.097898024673.9585303102127.769013364

X = period

Travel ExpendituresAdjusted

153.9375192.9375251.4375202.6875169.9125208.9125267.4125218.6625

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SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.886462R Square 0.785814Adjusted R 0.678722Standard E 52.74799Observatio 4

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 20416.05 20416.05 7.3377 0.113538Residual 2 5564.7 2782.35Total 3 25980.75

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%Intercept 481.5 64.60283 7.453234 0.01753 203.5365 759.4635 203.5365 759.4635X Variable 63.9 23.58962 2.708819 0.113538 -37.59793 165.3979 -37.59793 165.3979

Period Travel Expenditures

Next Year 5 801Next Two Y 6 864.9

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INPUTSNumber of Periods of Data Collected = 4Number of Seasons = 0

Seasonal FactorsValue Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

585 1549 2675 3756 4

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8 9 10 11

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SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.886462R Square 0.785814Adjusted R Square 0.678722Standard Error 52.74799Observations 4

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 20416.05 20416.05 7.3377 0.113538Residual 2 5564.7 2782.35Total 3 25980.75

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Intercept 481.5 64.6028250156292 7.453234 0.01753 203.5365 759.4635 203.5365X Variable 1 63.9 23.5896163597461 2.708819 0.113538 -37.59793 165.3979 -37.59793

Period Travel Expenditures

Next Year 5 801Next Two Years 6 864.9

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Upper 95.0%759.4635165.3979

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INPUTS OUTPUTS

Number of Periods of Data Collected = 16 Period

Number of Periods in Season = 4MSE = 1722226.01MAD = 1183.982

OUTPUTS 2001-1 2001-2 2001-3 2001-4Period 17 18 19 20 21 22 23Forecast 11276.485 10274.38 6572.7902 11200.9612141 10815.846 9850.3466 6298.6970726

Centered Seasonal/ Desesonalized AbsolutePeriod Value Moving Av. Random Values Forecast Error Error

1 14632 12950.2690134 13119.037 1512.9629 1512.96287222 11243 10809.7949921 11970.512 -727.5119 727.5119213 7540 12040.25 0.6262328 11215.2310091 7669.1626 -129.1626 129.162564814 14913 12105.25 1.2319448 12880.8628459 13089.018 1823.9821 1823.9820915 14298 11975.125 1.193975 12654.6573505 12658.399 1639.601 1639.60099796 12097 11308.75 1.0697027 11630.889444 11546.479 550.52115 550.521151757 5645 10441.125 0.5406506 8396.54894513 7395.0695 -1750.069 1750.06946648 11477 9716.375 1.1812018 9913.07335091 12617 -1140.004 1140.00373539 10793 9737.25 1.1084238 9552.50502059 12197.761 -1404.761 1404.7608764

10 9804 9877.125 0.9925965 9426.24122587 11122.446 -1318.446 1318.445775511 8105 9681.625 0.8371529 12055.6296192 7120.9764 984.02363 984.0236320912 10136 9765 1.0379928 8754.80626338 12144.99 -2008.99 2008.989561613 10570 9919.625 1.0655645 9355.13555709 11737.123 -1167.123 1167.122750814 10694 10302.25 1.0380257 10281.9485587 10698.413 -4.412703 4.412702755215 8452 12571.7682346 6846.8833 1605.1167 1605.116730516 12850 11098.9799215 11672.975 1177.0246 1177.0246121

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A73
Copyright 2001 John Lawrence & Barry Pasternack
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Forecast =

MAPE = 11.585LAD = 2008.990

24 25 26 27 2810728.947 10355.208 9426.3135 6024.604 10256.933

Error Absolute Linda's Sales for 2001Squared % Error 1st Quarter 6572.7902

2289056.65 0.103401 2nd Quarter 11200.961529273.595 0.064708 3rd Quarter 10815.84616682.9681 0.0171303 4th Quarter 9850.34663326910.67 0.1223082 TOTAL 2688291.43 0.1146735303073.539 0.04550893062743.14 0.31002121299608.52 0.09932941973353.12 0.13015481738299.26 0.1344804968302.509 0.12140954036039.06 0.19820341362175.52 0.110418419.4719456 0.00041262576399.72 0.18990971385386.94 0.0915972

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Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 42000 8452 128501999 8105 10136 10570 106941998 5645 11477 10793 98041997 7540 14913 14298 120971996 14632 11243

Period Year Quarter Period year Quarter1 2000 1 8452 1 1996 14632

2 2 12850 2 112433 1999 1 8105 3 1997 75404 2 10136 4 149135 3 10570 5 142986 4 10694 6 120977 1998 1 5645 7 1998 56458 2 11477 8 114779 3 10793 9 10793

10 4 9804 10 980411 1997 1 7540 11 1999 810512 2 14913 12 1013613 3 14298 13 1057014 4 12097 14 1069415 1996 3 14632 15 2000 845216 4 11243 16 12850

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Case 1 : Bubble Up Bottling Company

Market Share : Soft Drink Sales in the Region (100,000s) :using linear trend using classical decomposition

Year Season Period Year

1

Winter 1 6.42

1Spring 2 6.58 Summer 3 6.99 Fall 4 6.82

2

Winter 5 6.64

2Spring 6 6.46 Summer 7 6.70 Fall 8 7.00

3

Winter 9 6.70

3Spring 10 6.84 Summer 11 6.78 Fall 12 6.48

4

Winter 13 6.93

4Spring 14 6.79 Summer 15 6.83 Fall 16 7.21

5

Winter 17 7.73

5Spring 18 8.16 Summer 19 8.36 Fall 20 8.23

6

Winter 21 7.85

6Spring 22 7.92Summer 23 8.00Fall 24 8.08

7

Winter 25 8.16

7Spring 26 8.24Summer 27 8.31Fall 28 8.39

Ket :Yang dikuning kuning hasil forecast

Perkiraan Market Share, Total Penjualan & Penjualan Bottling Up 2 tahun kedepan sbb:

Year Season Period Market share Total Sales Sales ForecastNext Year Winter 21 7.85 139.68 1,096.10

Spring 22 7.92 172.22 1,364.80 Summer 23 8.00 202.23 1,618.31 Fall 24 8.08 163.84 1,323.77

Next two year Winter 25 8.16 145.36 1,185.74 Spring 26 8.24 179.15 1,475.28 Summer 27 8.31 210.28 1,748.00 Fall 28 8.39 170.29 1,428.81

Market Share (%)

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Soft Drink Sales in the Region (100,000s) :using classical decomposition

Season Period

Winter 1 114 Spring 2 130 Summer 3 158 Fall 4 131 Winter 5 114 Spring 6 146 Summer 7 177 Fall 8 142 Winter 9 124 Spring 10 151 Summer 11 175 Fall 12 146 Winter 13 132 Spring 14 160 Summer 15 184 Fall 16 144 Winter 17 134 Spring 18 166 Summer 19 205 Fall 20 148 Winter 21 139.68 Spring 22 172.22 Summer 23 202.23 Fall 24 163.84 Winter 25 145.36 Spring 26 179.15 Summer 27 210.28 Fall 28 170.29

Total Sales in

the Region

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -

50

100

150

200

250

SOFT DRINK SALES IN THE REGION (100,000S)

Column J

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Column E

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -

50

100

150

200

250

SOFT DRINK SALES IN THE REGION (100,000S)

Column J

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Column E

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SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.765417229975R Square 0.585863535943Adjusted R Square 0.562855954607Standard Error 0.396491647537Observations 20

ANOVAdf SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 4.003073721805 4.0030737218 25.46393 8.401978E-05Residual 18 2.829701278195 0.1572056266Total 19 6.832775

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Intercept 6.217842105263 0.184182842352 33.759073461 9.92E-18 5.830888313 6.604796X Variable 1 0.077586466165 0.015375286613 5.0461801536 8.4E-05 0.0452841877 0.109889

Year Season Period Market Share6 Winter 21 7.8471578947

Spring 22 7.9247443609Summer 23 8.0023308271Fall 24 8.0799172932

7 Winter 25 8.1575037594Spring 26 8.2350902256Summer 27 8.3126766917Fall 28 8.3902631579

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Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%5.830888313 6.6047958980.045284188 0.109888745

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INPUTS OUTPUTS

Number of Periods of Data Collected = 20 Period

Number of Periods in Season = 4MSE = 12666.68MAD = 94.206

OUTPUTSPeriod 21 22 23 24 25 26 27Forecast 139.68107 172.21949 202.23009 163.835009864 145.35531 179.14521 210.28172088

Centered Seasonal/ Desesonalized Absolute ErrorPeriod Value Moving Av. Random Values Forecast Error Error

1 114 136.166527026 111.30984 2.6901587 2.69015871682 130 127.219131993 137.59092 -7.590924 7.59092389983 158 133.25 1.1857411 132.99861398 161.97196 -3.971963 3.97196332664 131 135.25 0.9685767 137.468057409 131.54166 -0.541657 0.54165684965 114 139.625 0.8164727 136.166527026 116.98409 -2.984087 2.98408684026 146 143.375 1.0183086 142.876871315 144.51664 1.483362 1.48336199347 177 146 1.2123288 148.992118193 14.090346 162.90965 162.909654058 142 147.875 0.9602705 149.011176734 12.917341 129.08266 129.082658799 124 148.25 0.836425 148.110959222 12.767053 111.23295 111.2329475

10 151 148.5 1.016835 147.769914854 17.314285 133.68571 133.6857147311 175 150 1.1666667 147.308591433 22.141972 152.85803 152.8580277912 146 152.125 0.9597371 153.20867467 19.376012 126.62399 126.6239881913 132 154.375 0.8550607 157.666504978 18.441298 113.5587 113.5587019414 160 155.25 1.0305958 156.577393222 24.239999 135.76 135.7600006315 184 155.25 1.1851852 154.88446185 30.193598 153.8064 153.8064015316 144 156.25 0.9216 151.109925702 25.834682 118.16532 118.1653175917 134 159.625 0.8394675 160.055391417 24.115544 109.88446 109.8844563818 166 162.75 1.0199693 162.449045468 31.165713 134.83429 134.8342865219 205 172.561492822 38.245225 166.75478 166.7547752720 148 155.307423638 32.293353 115.70665 115.70664699

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Forecast =

MAPE = 60.465LAD = 166.755

28 29 30 31 32170.29368 151.02956 186.07092 218.33335 176.75235

AbsoluteSquared % Error

6

Winter 139.681077.23695392 0.0235979 Spring 172.2194957.6221257 0.0583917 Summer 202.2300915.7764927 0.025139 Fall 163.835010.29339214 0.0041348

7

Winter 145.355318.90477427 0.0261762 Spring 179.145212.2003628 0.01016 Summer 210.28172

26539.5554 0.9203935 Fall 170.2936816662.3328 0.909032812372.7686 0.897039917871.8703 0.885335923365.5767 0.873474416033.6344 0.867287612895.5788 0.860293218430.7778 0.848523656.4092 0.835904413963.0423 0.820592512074.5938 0.820033318180.2848 0.812254727807.1551 0.813437913388.0282 0.7818017

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