for personal use only - asxcharles macdonald appointed general manager, construction other executive...
TRANSCRIPT
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Media BriefingSeptember 2008
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AGENDA
1.
Management Structure
2.
Progress on construction of Airport Link
3.
Issue Analysis
4.
Key fundamentals of Airport Link
5.
Summary
6.
Q&A
7.
CloseFor
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01MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE
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MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE
Nick Lattimore appointed Chief Financial Officer
Charles MacDonald appointed General Manager, Construction
Other executive appointments progressing
Core team in place by November 2008For
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MANAGEMENT STRUCTUREF
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02PROGRESS ON CONSTRUCTION OF
AIRPORT LINKFor
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CONSTRUCTION PROGRESS
BCS’ contractor Thiess John Holland has signed a $90 million plus contract for Australia’s two largest tunnel boring machines (TBMs) to construct the Airport Link tunnel
TJH has also signed agreement to purchase 3 piling rigs and 11 roadheaders
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03ISSUE ANALYSIS
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MARKET CONDITIONS
The S&P/ASX 200 has fallen 24% YTD and by 17% since the BrisConnections IPO was priced on 9 May 2008
The toll road sector* has fallen 32% YTD and by 28% since the BrisConnections IPO was priced on 9 May 2008
BrisConnections security price has fallen 32% since IPO (on fully paid basis)
* Toll road sector includes MIG, Transurban, ConnectEast and RiverCity, weighted by market capitalisation as at 15 September 2008
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Reb
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Rebased ASX 200 Toll Road Sector* (Weighted by Market Capitalisation)
31 July 08: BrisConnections lists
on ASX
9 May 08: BrisConnections IPO
priced
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BrisConnections is trading significantly below analysts price targets
ISSUE: BCS SECURITY PRICE
Broker valuations(based on the initial instalment)
Source: broker reports
$0.83HOLD
$1.10BUY
$0.93BUY
$0.60BUY
$0.91BUY
$0.00 $0.20 $0.40 $0.60 $0.80 $1.00 $1.20
Wilson HTM, Nathan Lead (11 Aug 08)
JPMorgan, Kirsty Mackay-Fisher (5 Sep 08)
Macquarie Research, Ian Myles (9 Sep 08)
Deutsche Bank, Cameron McDonald (10 Sep 08)
Credit Suisse, Anthony Moulder (11 Sep 08)
$0.037 security price as at 15 Sep
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ISSUE: DEBT FUNDING
The price at which the Trusts’ stapled securities trade does not impact the pricing or availability of the funding for the Airport Link project
All of the debt facilities raised by BCS for the project are fully underwritten by a group of leading Australian and International banks experienced in motorway financings
Those facilities are and remain fully committed and available for their specified maturities (10 years in the case of the main project facilities)
There are no market capitalisation undertakings in BCS’ debt facilitiesF
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ISSUE: DEBT FUNDING
BCS has a robust and simple financial structure with gearing aligned to the projected revenue profile
Our financing assumptions are significantly more conservative than recent comparable toll road projects
BCS debt service withstands a 40% reduction in forecast traffic in each year
Debt is plain vanilla debt on 10 year termsFor
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FINANCING & USE OF FUNDS
Sources of Funds $ million Application of Funds $ million
Bank debt 2,928 Construction cost –
Airport Link 3,400
Equity raised in the Offer 1,170 Upfront development and financing costs
269
Equity raised via DRP 3451 Net interest prior to Airport Link Opening
575
Deferred Equity 200 Reserves 2532
State Works Contribution 267 Equity distributions during construction
301
Ongoing development, financing and other costs
1123
Total 4,910 Total 4,910
1. Comprises all proceeds received from the issue of Stapled Units under the DRP for the period up to Airport Link Opening. This
includes the proceeds received from the Second Instalment and the Final Instalment in respect of party paid Stapled Units issued under the DRP.
2. This includes the Distribution reserve and the cash funded component of the Ramp-up reserve. In addition to these reserves, there is up to $120 million in available debt facilities under the Reserve Facility.
3. Includes ongoing company costs, ongoing DRP underwriting fees, provision for the capitalisation of interest in respect of the
Equity Bridge Facilities, net GST and other ongoing costs.
Gearing %
Debt / (Debt + Equity + DRP) 63.1
Debt / (Debt + Equity) 68.1
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ISSUE: DISTRIBUTIONS AND INSTALMENTS
Distributions
The Board intends to declare the first Fixed Distribution of 5.95 cents per stapled unit on 19th December 2008. Payment date is expected to be 2nd March, 2009
BrisConnections current intention is to make further semi-annual distributions for the periods ending 30th June and 31st December as detailed in the PDS
Distributions will be reinvested in further Stapled Units via a DRP unless the unit holder elects not to participate
Distributions during the Fixed Distribution Period are expected to be fully tax deferred
Instalments
Second instalment of one dollar (A$1.00) per stapled unit is due by 29th April, 2009.
Third and final instalment of one dollar (A$1.00) per stapled unit is due by 29th January, 2010
Both of these instalments are underwritten
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04KEY FUNDAMENTALS OF AIRPORT LINK
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TRAFFIC
Arup, BCS’ traffic expert, has a detailed understanding of transport and traffic issues within Brisbane and South East Queensland
Arup developed the Brisbane Strategic Transport Model (in conjunction with Sinclair Knight Merz) for Brisbane City Council, QueenslandTransport and the Queensland Department of Main Roads in 2000
Arup’s experience includes developing the traffic forecasting studies used for several major domestic and international road and toll road projects,
Includes the Inner City Bypass, Bruce Highway, Brisbane Airport Northern Access Road, Ipswich Motorway, Centenary Highway, SH-121 in Texas in US and the Tyne River Crossing in UKFor
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TRAFFIC
Arup has taken into account all the costs of making a trip in determining its traffic forecasts - tolls, vehicle operating costs and fuel prices
Australian toll road users are demonstrating that they are very inelastic to petrol prices, as traffic growth is continuing despite increased fuel prices
In the quarter to 30 June 2008, average fuel prices in Sydney and Melbourne increased by 18.2% and 16.7% respectively. Despite this, Transurban’s most recent traffic data has showed solid growth for Australian roads over this periodF
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TOLL ROAD COMPARISONS
Successful, high use toll road projects in Australia have been those built for strong economic reasons, such as Melbourne CityLink and WestlinkM7
The Cross City and Lane Cove tunnels were built for planning reasons (Cross City to try to remove traffic from cross city streets and create a boulevard along William Street, Lane Cove tunnel to put traffic underground and return Epping Road to local residents)
Airport Link has been procured by the Queensland Government for genuine economic reasons
It will be a key driver of economic growth in Brisbane, and alleviate congestion in the critical CBD/northern suburbs/Airport and Trade Coast corridor, which will underpin its success
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BRISBANE’S MISSING LINK
―
Serves multiple markets
―
Time sensitive and commercially driven users
―
Highest employment and trip generators in the greater Brisbane region
―
Airport Link catchment contains 60% of Brisbane population
―
Three tollroads under one concession
―
Commuter Road linking northern suburbs to CBD
―
Link to one of Australia's fastest growing airports
―
Link to Australia Trade Coast, Australia’s fastest growing industrial & trade precincts.
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KEY FUNDAMENTALS
Airport Link will complete a missing part of Brisbane’s road network and will be the first motorway standard road from the CBD to the northern suburbs and Brisbane Airport, which are key traffic generators
Brisbane has strong demographics validating the demand for such a road – it will have the highest peak hour and travel time growth of any Australian city
Airport Link is “3 toll roads in one”, a multi-functional road with three distinct traffic movements that cater to different markets
Commuter Tollroad: Connecting the CBD to the northern suburbs. Similar characteristics to M4 and M5
CBD to Airport Tollroad: CBD to Brisbane Airport, Australia TradeCoast and Port of Brisbane (similar characteristics to Eastern Distributor)
Orbital ring road: Northern suburbs to Airport, Australia TradeCoast and Port of Brisbane (similar characteristics to Westlink M7 and EastLink)
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KEY FUNDAMENTALS: DEMOGRAPHICS
almost 2x national
average
~50% higher than the national
growth rate
~50% higher than national average
12%
18.5%
3.2%5.0% 1.3%
2.2%
Brisbane Nat. Avg
Qld Nat. Avg
Economic Growth per annum(2002 to 2007)
Sydney MelbourneBrisbane Adelaide Perth
4.9%
Qld Australia
Population Growth per annum(2001/02 to 2006)
55%
23%28%
9%
45%
Forecast Population Growth(2004 to 2031)
Car Registration Growth(2002 to 2006)
Brisbane is the fastest growing
capital city in Australia
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
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TOLLABLE SECTION 1CBD TO NORTHERN SUBURBS
Historic traffic growth1: 7.0% p.a.
Forecast traffic growth2: 6.2% p.a.
TOLLABLE SECTION 3NORTHERN SUBURBS TO AIRPORT
Historic traffic growth1: 10.0% p.a.Forecast traffic growth2: 6.0% p.a.
TOLLABLE SECTION 2CBD TO AIRPORT
Historic traffic growth1: 7.2% p.a.Forecast traffic growth2: 4.9%
p.a.
NORTHERN SUBURBS/ NORTH-WESTERN
SUBURBS/ SUNSHINE COAST
AIRPORT/ AUSTRALIA
TRADECOAST/ PORT OF BRISBANE
CBD AND INNER SUBURBS/ WESTERN SUBURBS/ SOUTHERN SUBURBS
1 2000-2006
2
2004-2012
KEY FUNDAMENTALS: CORRIDOR GROWTH
―
CBD: approximately 150,000 jobs (forecast 220,000 by 2031)
―
Inner Suburbs: approximately 100,000 jobs (forecast 150,000 by 2031)
―
Represents approximately 50% of catchment
―
Airport: 17.5 million passengers in 2006/2007 (10% pa passenger growth 2003-2007)
―
Australia TradeCoast: 38,000 jobs –
expected to rise to 70,000 by 2031
Note: refer to slides 52-55 for additional detail on the key trip generators
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KEY FUNDAMENTALS
The alternative routes to Airport Link are low capacity and otherwise constrained arterial roads, however Airport Link’s main feeder roads include motorway standard and higher quality arterial roads. It has a high ratio of feeder road lanes to tollroad lanes and the feeder routes have significant capacity to allow future traffic growth
The different markets to which Airport Link caters have complementary peak periods that spread demand broadly across the day - Airport Link’s feeder roads exhibit higher expansion factors than the feeders to comparable toll roads in Australia
With several toll roads in Brisbane, all of which will be fully electronic at Airport Link opening, tag penetration is likely to be very high in Brisbane when Airport Link opensF
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TRAVEL TIME BENEFITS / TOLL AFFORDABILITY―
Substantial
variability
in travel times on current arterial network
―
Airport Link will be one of the most economical tunnels in Australia
Incorporates travel time variability. Travel time savings are post ramp up. TS2 and TS3 take into account Airport Roundabout Upgrade.
Competing routes (minutes) Travel time savings (minutes)
Year 2012 2022 2012 2022
CBD to northern suburbs (TS1) 22-26 68-79 12-16 35-46
CBD to airport (TS2) 25-29 61-72 13-17 36-47
Northern suburbs to airport (TS3)
14-17 20-25 9-12 16-21
Toll value comparison
* Toll cost amortised over a return trip as tolled in one direction only
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
M1: ED(Sydney)*
NSBT(Brisbane)
Lane Cove(Sydney)
SHT(Sydney)*
BurnleyTunnel
(Melbourne)
Bolte
Bridge(Melbourne)
EastLinkTunnel
(Melbourne)
GatewayBridge
(Brisbane)
Cross City(Sydney)
DomainTunnel
(Melbourne)
AirportLink(TS1)
AirportLink(TS2)
AirportLink(TS2) incl
Airport Roundabout Upgrade
AirportLink(TS3)
AirportLink(TS3) incl
Airport Roundabout Upgrade
A$/
Km
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05SUMMARY
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SUMMARY
Experienced and qualified management and contractor in place to deliver on time, on budget
Negative toll road sentiment, tough market conditions and the ‘forgotten’ qualities of long term, defensive infrastructure projects are weighing on the security price
BCS has the concession over Australia’s most exciting road project in the country’s number one growth area for the next 45 years
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06Q&A
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07CLOSE
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