for personal use only · bmo conference february 2012 for personal use only. ... presentation will...
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DisclaimerImportant NoticeThe purpose of this presentation is to provide general information about Fortescue Metals Group Ltd ("Fortescue"). It is not recommended that any person makes any investment decision in relation to Fortescue based on this presentation.
This presentation contains certain statements which may constitute "forward-looking statements". Such statements are only predictions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties which could cause actual values, results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed, implied or projected in any forward-looking statements.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Fortescue that the material contained in this presentation will be achieved or prove to be correct. Except for statutory liability which cannot be excluded, each of Fortescue, its officers, employees and advisers expressly disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the material contained in this presentation and excludes all liability whatsoever (including in negligence) for any loss or damage which may be suffered by any person as a consequence of any information in this presentation or any error or omission therefrom. Fortescue accepts no responsibility to update any person regarding any inaccuracy, omission or change in information in this presentation or any other information made available to a person nor any obligation to furnish the person with any further information.
Additional InformationThis presentation should be read in conjunction with the Annual Financial Report as at 30 June 2011, the half year financial statements together with any announcements made by Fortescue in accordance with its continuous disclosure obligations arising under the Corporations Act 2001.
All amounts within this presentation are stated in United States Dollars consistent with the Functional Currency of the Fortescue Metals Group Limited.
Tables contained within this presentation may contain immaterial rounding differences.
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Fully integrated – large scale efficiencyOwnership of infrastructure is the key
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Chichester Hub
Dampier
Tom Price
Karratha
Fortescue Infrastructure
Fortescue Rail
Rio Tinto Rail
BHP Rail
BCI JV
SolomonHub
Clear strategy 155mtpa June 2013
Herb Elliott PortPort Hedland
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
Solomon BrockmanSolomon CIDBCI JVChristmas CreekCloudbreakConsensus
A near term growth story Value creation through early delivery
Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14
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• A new exploration model
• Fastest ramp up in the history of the Pilbara
• Surface mining technology for grade control
• Heaviest haul rail system in the world
• Highest port out-load rates in Australia
• Largest ore processing plant in the Pilbara
Core competenciesInnovation and rapid execution
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2,266 2,227 2,143 2,550 2,550
695 695 695695 695
1,715 2,224 2,8603,070 3,070
624 624
1,0322,013
1,2301,230
2,465
3,236
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Min
eral
Res
ourc
es (M
t)
Fiscal Year Chichester Hub Chichester Other Solomon Hub Western Hub Nyidinghu Magnetite
Resource portfolio sets expansion platform
1.5btAnnualised growth of
per annum
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Chichester Hub
Nyidinghu
NyidinghuA dot on the map in 2010
Fortescue tenement holding
Herb Elliott Port
SolomonHub
• Over 2 billion tonnes discovered since 2010
• Low 2:1 low strip ratio = low cost
• Ideal for Chichester blending
• Leverage existing infrastructure
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CultureFortescue’s unique culture is the key
RelationshipsDirect relationships with sub contractors and local suppliers
ChinaLeveraging China’s fabrication and delivery capability
SpeedSpeed of delivery – time is money
Planning Planning for scale today and efficiency into the future
New development modelDelivering results
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Operating Highlights
• Integrated mine, rail and port running at over 55mtpa for December Qtr
• Commissioning of third berth with new out-load circuit
• Sixth train set joins the rail fleet
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Financial HighlightsRecord performance
• $3.4 billion first half FY2012 record revenue
• $1.5 billion underlying EBITDA
• $801 million net profit of up 155% on the prior period last year
• 27 million tonnes shipped up 30% on the prior period
• 14.4 million tonnes shipped in Dec Qtr a run rate of 58mtpa
• C1 costs reduced to $46/wmt in Dec Qtr
• $2.5 billion cash at bank at end of DecFor
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Consistent sustainable growth
Mining Rail Port
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2H08 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H11 2H11 1H12
Ore Processed (wmt)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2H08 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H11 2H11 1H12
Ore Railed (wmt)
Third Party OreRailed
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2H08 1H09 2H09 1H10 2H10 1H11 2H11 1H12
Ore Shipped (wmt)
Third Party OreShipped
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High margin producerChanged pricing delivers strong returns
$50 $53 $61
$67 $80 $78
$70 $68
$107
$135
$159
$138
$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
2H2009 1H2010 2H2010 1H2011 2H2011 1H2012
Benchmark regime - FOB Index pricing - CFR
US$
per
dry
tonn
e
• Index pricing better represents supply/demand• CFR terms lock in shipping advantages for proximity to market
Average COGS per dry tonne
Average CFR selling price per dry tonne
Gross margin
$20Gross margin
$15
Gross margin
$46
Gross margin
$68
Gross margin
$79Gross margin
$60
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China – the twelfth five year planGreat news for Pilbara iron ore
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
will live in China’s cities by 2030
billionpeople
Chinese cities will have 1m+ people living in them –Europe has 35 today
221skyscrapers by 2030 - equal to ten NY cities
50,000
GDP growthby 20255x
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330 340 280 275 245
719
764
879
9531027
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Seaborne IO demand Domestic IO demand Steel production
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Crude steel production
Imported iron ore Mt
China’s steel production up 60% over 5 yrs – Iron Ore imports up 110%
China’s steel production forecast to increase 25% over next 5 years -China’s imports of iron ore up 50%
Source: Moils & Company estimates, Tex Report, Bloomberg
China increasingly looks to imported iron ore
Iron
ore
prod
uctio
n (M
t)
Ste
el p
rodu
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And the seaborne market is struggling
2012 likely to be the smallest increase to seaborne supply in last 5 years
India’s withdrawal from the iron ore market has been rapid and unexpected
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
f
2013
f
2014
f
2015
f
2016
f
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
New seaborne production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009
2010
2011
2012
f
2013
f
2014
f
2015
f
2016
f
Mill
ion
Tonn
esYear
Indian Exports
Source: Macquarie Bank Commodity Review 2012
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China’s domestic production fills the gap, but at a cost
China’s iron ore tonnes mined doubles in 5 years but contained iron units of production remain steady
Grade degradation in Chinese domestic production rises at an alarming rate
33% 32%
27%25% 23%
18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
China - average domestic iron ore grade (% Fe)
Source: Moils & Company estimates, Tex Report, Bloomberg
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mill
ion
Tonn
es
Chinese total production
Chinese contained iron (62Fe)
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Fortescue to capture the opportunityRapid growth – Capital Efficiency
• Short term155mtpa two mining hubs, rail and port expansion advancing rapidly
• Medium termOptions with Nyidinghu, Western Hub and Anketell Port
Budget US$ billions Committed to date
Port 2.4 1.7
Rail 2.2 1.5
Chichester Hub 1.1 0.7
Solomon 2.7 2.3
Sub Total 8.4 6.2Mine Fleet 1.6 1.2
Total 10.0 7.4
Infrastructure capital intensity
per tonne
$84as at 14 February 2012
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Port expansion milestones
Port• Commissioning of third berth in progress
• Second in-load circuit end September Qtr
• Third in-load and out-load circuits end December Qtr 2012
• Fourth berth end March Qtr 2013
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Rail expansion milestones
Rail• Main line duplication end September Qtr 2012
• Spur line to Solomon end December Qtr 2012
• Additional ore cars and locos over the next 10 months.
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Chichester Hub expansion milestones
Christmas Creek• Second OPF end September Qtr 2012
• Current OPF to 25mtpa run rate by end June 2012
• Mining ramp up to 50mtpa by end December Qtr 2012
Cloudbreak• Wet front end completed by end September Qtr 2012
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Solomon Hub expansion milestones
Solomon• Mining contract to be finalised early June Qtr 2012
• Sealed airstrip operational in June Qtr 2012
• Firetail OPF commencing ramp up December Qtr 2012
• Kings OPF commencing ramp up March Qtr 2013
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4,058
5,421
9,256
3,956
4,634
6,031
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
FY12 FY13 FY14
Potential FMG results - EBITDA
Broker consensus - EBITDA
$3bn of EBITDA growth on the tableIt’s all about execution
EBIT
DA
(US$
m)
The above chart uses broker consensus operating costs and consensus iron ore prices with the differential being the tonnes per annum ramp up profile.
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2012 and beyond – delivering on promisesPure iron ore company leveraged to Asia
• Culture is our differentiator
• 55mtpa production base sets the platform
• Growth to 155mtpa June 2013
• Further development options through aggressive exploration
• Nyidinghu + Western Hub = options
• Multiple mine and port strategy to deliver within window of opportunity
• A value proposition without parallel
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The equity value proposition awaitsA PE uplift and re-rating expected on milestone achievements
Year 2012 2013 2014
Average Fortescue PE 11.6 7.9 5.6
ASX 200 Sample 12.6 11.1 10.1
ASX 200 Materials 12.7 10.0 9.0
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