for futures, options and forex traders … lies beneath all... · the new cot report 1 what lies...

1The New COT Report

What lies beneathall trends?

Published by

2 N D E D I T I O N

FOR FUTURES, OPTIONS and FOREX TRADERS

Learn to Analyze the NewCOT Reports like a Pro

TRENDSTRENDS

BY GARY KAMEN

MARKETMARKET

Now including both the Disaggregated COT Report andTraders in FinancialFutures

2 © 2016 www.trendsinfutures.com

Reproduction or use of the text or visual content exchanges exchanges without written permission is prohibited.

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(800) 621-5271 or (312) 554-8456Fax: (312) 939- 4135

[email protected] • www.trendsinfutures.com

www.trendsinfutures.com

3The New COT Report

The information herein is compiled from public sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. No responsibility is assumed for the use

of this material and no express or implied warranties are made. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to buy/sell, or as a solicitation to buy/sell, any security,

commodity or derivatives instrument.

BY GARY KAMEN

MARKETTRENDS

What lies beneathall trends?

Learn to Analyze the NewCOT Reports like a Pro

2 N D E D I T I O N


If you are trading futures, Forex, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), or options, I

cannot stress enough the importance of incorporating the new Disaggregated

COT Report and the new Traders in Financial Futures Report into your trading.

As someone who has been involved in the futures market for 25 years, I’ve

seen it all. I’ve seen professional floor traders make millions—and lose millions.

I’ve seen retail traders lose everything, and not have a clue as to why. Very few

traders develop strategies based on understanding the how and why of what

makes prices move in a market.

There is an old saying that you can never go broke by taking profits. I hear so many traders tell me

that they had a winner and let it turn into a loser. NEVER TURN A WINNER INTO A LOSER. You

should write that on a note right now and post it where you’ll see it.

In the following pages, you’ll learn about a tool that can help you get into a trade to maximize

profits. You’ll have greater confidence trading when you can clearly see who is supporting the trade

you are in, and if and when you should tighten your stops.

No matter what you trade, you’ll come to count on this tool.

Of course if you have any questions about anything you read in this book, feel free to email me at

[email protected] or call me (yes I am a real person!) at (312) 506-8706.

Be well, trade well, and follow the trends,

Gary Kamen Chief Market Strategist and Educator

“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed

is always try one more time”

– Thomas A. Edison

mailto:[email protected]

5The New COT Report

A Little History

The first Commitment of Traders (COT) Report

was published for 13 agricultural commodities

in June 30, 1962. At the time, this Report was

proclaimed as another step forward in the

policy of providing the public with current and

basic data on futures market operations.

Those original Reports were compiled on an

end-of-month basis and were published on

the 11th or 12th calendar day of the following

month (think about technology back then).

The purpose of the COT was to differentiate

between Commercial and Non-Commercial

traders.

The COT gradually became known as a tool that commodity traders used in an attempt to see the

“thinking” of the large speculators and the Commercials. It was a given that the Commercials and

large speculators enjoyed an enormous advantage and were more knowledgeable about the

markets than the “small speculator”.

The COT levels the playing field by exposing the players behind the

trades.

Commercials (aka hedgers) are companies or traders that deal with

actual commodities as part of doing business. Commercials are exempt

from position limits and post smaller margins than speculators.

Large speculators are traders whose trading levels are high enough

that they require Reporting to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Small speculators are the traders remaining after the Commercials and large speculators have been

subtracted from the total open interests.

The CFTC releases the COT Report every Friday. It summarizes changes in futures positions in all

major commodities by all major players. While tremendously useful, the COT seems to many to be

very complex. Because of this belief, not many retail traders, novice or experienced use this vital

information.

If you look at open interest, not knowing who the players are could cost you. The following pages

will help you dissect the COT so you can know exactly how to utilize this critical information in your

trading — and catch the big market moves we are all searching for.

The COT levels the playing field by exposing the players behind the trades.


COT is your compass, showing the direction of the markets pushed along by increased buying

and selling.

On the Corn chart, above, you can see how Commercials are the sell side of the market, selling

as prices rise. The buy side, Large Speculators, buy as prices rise.

Look at what happens as prices drop. Here it’s not about looking only at one group or the other,

it’s about the relationship between both that we are analyzing.

Put another way, as someone who has spent time on the CBOT trading floor (back when there

was a trading floor!), if you heard a pit in an uproar, you had a pretty good idea that market was

moving. What was happening? Increased buying and selling.

After all nothing else moves a market.

ZC- Corn - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart

7The New COT Report

The Commitments of Traders Report

WHY IS THIS REPORT IMPORTANT?

Rising open interest tells us new buyers are entering a market, and for every new buyer, there must

be a new seller for open interest to increase.

If you take anything away from this book, learn to see who the traders are selling in an up-trending market.

There is a tool that can help you see exactly how all major trends start in any market — increased

buying and selling by big money. It is called the Commitment of Traders Report (COT). The Commodity

Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases this Report every Friday. The first Report separated Com-

mercials, Large Speculators, and Small Speculators.

You cannot make an intelligent analysis of open interest without analyzing the COT. This Report is

essential; without it, you have no idea how “big money” is posturing in a market.

As large cash merchants in the business, Commercials maintain their own intelligence-gathering

networks and analysis. In fact, in some markets (such as softs, grains, and meats), commercial trade

houses are the primary source of fundamental supply-and-demand statistics available to the trading

public.

Assuming these numbers are accurately reported, you can be sure they have already been acted on

in the market before the data is released to the public. The COT Report detects these actual market

manipulations. Besides being at a decided informational advantage, large Commercials by definition

trade in sizes large enough to move markets. Given these advantages, their futures trading prowess

is not surprising.

SO HOW DO YOU USE THIS REPORT?

Although each COT Report contains many statistics, of primary concern to futures and options trad-

ers are the actual positions and the changes from the prior Report. Some try to work directly from

the raw numbers, but the data are most easily analyzed when graphed as net positions opposite a

weekly price chart.

To derive the net positions for each trade category, simply subtract the short contracts from the

long. A positive result indicates a net long position (more long than short contracts), and a negative

indicates a net short position (more shorts than longs).

You cannot make an intelligent analysis of open interest without analyzing the COT.


Whether a particular trader group is net long or short is not important to the analysis; net positions relative to historical levels are. Therefore, a simple net position is meaningless; it is imperative to

compare the current net position with the recent historical levels in the respective market. The

relative bullishness/bearishness of the Commercial net position is easier to see when you can view

the current net position with both the highest and lowest net commercial position over a selected

period of time.

Go to ‘Resources’ > ‘Commercial Tracker’ at www.TrendsinFutures.com for the quickest view

covering all of the markets for the past 52-weeks.

THE FIRST “NEW” REPORTThe Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission) began publishing a Disaggregated

Commitments of Traders (Disaggregated COT) Report on September 4, 2009. The first iteration of

the Report covered 22 major physical commodity markets; on December 4, 2009, the remaining

physical commodity markets were included.

The Disaggregated COT Report increases transparency from the legacy COT Reports by separating

traders into the following four categories: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User; Swap Dealers;

Managed Money; and Other Reportables. The legacy COT Report only separates reportable traders

into “Commercial” and “Non-Commercial” categories.

Commercial Net Positions Legacy Report

9The New COT Report

All COT Reports provide a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest for markets in which 20 or

more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels established by the CFTC. The

Reports are published in futures-only formats as well as futures-and-options combined formats.

The data are available in both a short format and a long format.2

The Disaggregated COT Report is being published side-by-side with the legacy COT formats. The

Commission is soliciting comment on the new Report and will review whether to continue to publish

both side-by-side, or to replace the legacy Report with the new Report.

This initiative for providing market transparency arises from the recommendation to disaggregate

the existing “Commercial” category in the Commission’s September 2008 Staff Report on Commodi-

ty Swap Dealers & Index Traders. Specifically, that Report recommended:

Remove Swap Dealer from Commercial Category and Create New Swap Dealer Classification for Reporting Purposes: In order to provide for increased transparency of the exchange traded futures

and options markets, the Commission has instructed the staff to develop a proposal to enhance and

improve the CFTC‘s weekly Commitments of Traders Report by including more delineated trader

classification categories beyond Commercial and Non-Commercial, which may include, at a mini-

mum, the addition of a separate category identifying the trading of swap dealers.

The new categories are as follows:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/UserAn entity that predominantly engages in the production, processing, packing or handling of a physical

commodity, and uses the futures markets to manage or hedge risks associated with those activities.

2. Swap DealerAn entity that deals primarily in swaps for a commodity and uses the futures markets to manage or

hedge the risk associated with those swaps transactions. The swap dealer’s counterparties may be

speculative traders, like hedge funds, or traditional commercial clients that are managing risk arising

from their dealings in the physical commodity. (See next chapter on Swap Dealers)

3. Money ManagerA registered commodity trading advisor (CTA); a registered commodity pool operator (CPO); or an

unregistered fund identified by CFTC.7 These traders are engaged in managing and conducting

organized futures trading on behalf of clients.

Disaggregated Report Correlation to the Legacy Report Producers + Swap Dealers = Commercials Managed Money + Other Reportables = Non-Commercial


4. Other Reportables Every other Reportable trader that is not placed into one of the other three categories is placed into

the “Other Reportables” category.

THE SECOND “NEW” REPORT

The Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) Report, announced by the Commodity Futures Trading

Commission (CFTC) on July 22, 2010, builds on improvements to transparency implemented in 2009

that disaggregated data in the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) Reports.

The new Report separates large traders in the financial markets into the following four categories:

Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds; and Other Reportables.

The legacy COT Report separates Reportable traders only into Commercial and Non-Commercial categories.

The TFF Report, like the COT Reports, provides a breakdown of each Tuesday’s open interest

for markets in which 20 or more traders hold positions equal to or above the reporting levels

established by the CFTC. This Report is published in futures-only and futures-and-options combined

formats. The TFF Report is published side-by-side with the legacy COT.

11The New COT Report

The TFF Report

The Commission, by regulation, collects confidential daily large-trader data as part of its market

surveillance program. That data, which also support the legacy COT Report, is separated into the

following categories for the TFF Report:

1. Dealer/Intermediary 2. Asset Manager/Institutional 3. Leveraged Funds and 4. Other Reportables

TRADER CLASSIFICATIONS

The TFF Report divides the financial futures market participants into the “sell side” and “buy side.”

This traditional functional division of financial market participants focuses on their respective roles

in the broader marketplace, not whether they are buyers or sellers of futures/option contracts.

For example, the category called Dealer/Intermediary represents sell-side participants. Typically,

these are dealers and intermediaries that earn commissions by selling financial products, capture

bid/offer spreads or otherwise accommodating clients.

The remaining three categories (Asset Manager/Institutional, Leveraged Funds, and Other Report-ables) represent the buy-side participants. These are essentially clients of the sell-side participants

who use the markets to invest, hedge, manage risk, speculate or change the term structure or

duration of their assets.

CFTC staff use Form 40 data and, where appropriate, conversations with traders and other data

available to the Commission regarding a trader’s market activities, to make a judgment on each

trader’s appropriate classification.

Some multi-service or multi-functional organizations have centralized their futures trading. In such

cases, their Form 40 may show occupations and market usages related to more than one of the

new categories. CFTC Division of Market Oversight (DMO) staff place each reportable trader in the

most appropriate category based on their predominant activity.

Some parent organizations set up separate reportable trading entities to handle their different

businesses or locations. In such cases, each of these entities files a separate Form 40 and is

analyzed separately to determine that entity’s proper TFF classification.

A trader’s classifications may change over time for a number of reasons. A trader may change the

way it uses the markets, may trade additional or fewer commodities, or may find that its client base

evolves. These changes may cause DMO staff to change a trader’s classifications and categories


and/or change the commodities to which a trader’s various classifications apply. Moreover, a

trader’s classification may change because the Commission has received additional information

about the trader.

Now looking closer at the institutions that make up these categories:

1. Dealer/Intermediary

These participants are typically described as the “sell side” of the market. Though they may not

predominately sell futures, they do design and sell various financial assets to clients. They tend to

have matched books or offset their risk across markets and clients. Futures contracts are part of

the pricing and balancing of risk associated with the products they sell and their activities. These

include large banks (U.S. and non-U.S.) and dealers in securities, swaps and other derivatives.

The rest of the market comprises the “buy-side,” which is divided into three separate categories:

2. Asset Manager/Institutional These are institutional investors, including pension funds, endowments, insurance companies, mutual

funds and those portfolio/investment managers whose clients are predominantly institutional.

3. Leveraged Funds Typically hedge funds and various types of money managers, including registered commodity

trading advisors (CTAs); registered commodity pool operators (CPOs), or unregistered funds identified

by CFTC. Their strategies may involve taking outright positions or arbitrage within and across

markets. The traders may be engaged in managing and conducting proprietary futures trading and

trading on behalf of speculative clients.

4. Other Reportables This is for Reportable Traders that are not placed into one of the above three categories. These

traders are mostly using markets to hedge business risk, whether that risk is related to foreign

exchange, equities or interest rates. This category includes corporate treasuries, central banks,

smaller banks, mortgage originators, credit unions and any Other Reportable Traders not assigned

to the other three categories.

The Traders in Financial Futures Report has no direct correlation to the Legacy Report.


Swaps Dealers

Unlike most standardized futures contracts, swaps are not exchange-traded instruments. Instead,

swaps are customized contracts that are traded in the over-the-counter (OTC) market between private

parties. Firms and financial institutions dominate the swaps market, with few, if any, individuals

participating.

In 1987, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) reported that the swaps mar-

ket had a total notional value of $865.5 billion. By mid-2006, this figure was just over $250 trillion,

according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Back then, that was more than 15 times

the size of the US public equities market. As of the second half of 2014, the BIS reported the total

notional value at over $691 trillion (below).

(Provided by the Bank for International Settlements www.bis.org)

Table 1 Global OTC Derivatives Market

Amounts outstanding, in billions of US dollars


Keep in mind the International Swap Dealers Association (ISDA) made numerous attempts to stop

the Swap Dealers positions from being removed from the Commercial category. Luckily for the small

retail speculator, that did not work. Looking at the old Report together with the new Report you will

see why this was so important.

The following charts will give you a chance to see for yourself. If you need any assistance in using

this vital information, you can email me at [email protected].

So who are the Swap Dealers?

Based on notional amounts of derivative contracts held for trading, the following four financial insti-

tutions are at the top of the list as of September 30, 2014:

1. Citibank 2. JPMorgan Chase 3. Goldman Sachs 4. Bank of America

No surprises here. See the next table for confirmation (provided by the Comptroller of the Currency.)

What I find amazing here is the huge difference between number four, Bank of America, and number

five, Wells Fargo:

Four Banks Dominate in Derivatives Insured US Commercial Banks and Savings Associations

Notional Amount of Derivative Contracts Top 20 Commercial Banks, Savings Associations & Trust Companies in Derivatives

September 30, 2014, $ Millions


A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Words

On the following pages you will find weekly charts from the old Legacy Report, the new Disaggregated

Report (commodities), and new Traders in Financial Futures Report. You will be able to see why I now

use the new Reports instead of the old ones.

While there is no COT Report for Forex you will see exactly what to watch for to catch every trend in

Forex.

The weekly COT figures are for December 30, 2014.

Charts provided by www.TrendsinFutures.com.


CORN This chart shows the week of April 1, 2013: a bear begins in corn to help bring prices down to the

lows for 2013, in December. A bull move in corn took place the week of January 13, 2014, as corn

moved to hit the 2014 high the week of May 5 (519½). The following week, a bear was again seen

as Producers started dropping net shorts leading to corn’s 2014 low of 318¼ the week of September

29. Two weeks before, the weekly low hit a bull once again and appeared prepared to push the

market higher into year’s end.

December 30, 2014: COT Producers net short -415,408 contracts, Managed Money net long 233,725

contracts, and Swap Dealers net long 265,952 contracts.

Remember who the Swap Dealers are and why they are trading in corn.

ZC- Corn - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart


OIL The first item you will notice here is the strong sell-side is not Producers but Swap Dealers.

On the week of January 9, 2012, Swap Dealers crossed below Producers and have stayed there. An

interesting point to look at is the week of August 26, 2013, where crude oil hit a high of $112.24 as

Swap Dealers were net short -410,739 contracts, Managed Money was net long 273,887 contracts

and even producers were net long 44,748 contracts.

You want to see crude oil back above $100 a barrel? I am hoping you can see what you need to

watch for in order to catch that ride. COT December 30, 2014: Producers -71,339 net short, Swap

Dealers -218,068 net short, and Managed Money 200,896 net long.

CL- Crude Oil WTI - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart


GOLD What about GOLD? Like crude oil, swap dealers in gold are a strong sell-side. You can see on this

chart the week of July 22, 2013. Swap dealers crossed down below Producers and most recently

have converged. A number of times gold bounced off $1,200.

On July 1, 2013, you can see the move heading up to $1,400—and you can see who helped push

prices higher. Next time you see this is December 30, 2013. Look at gold’s price action from the

first week of July 2014: the opposite took place, with gold dropping from $1,350, heading down to

$1,200.

Looking for a gold rush again? Watch the COT week to week and you will see it happening right

before your eyes. It may help you make a little money!

GC - Gold - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart


COFFEE Coffee bulls had a very solid fundamental in their favor in 2014: the Brazilian drought. Looking at

this chart, even with the drought, the actual engine that pushed coffee prices higher and higher was

the increased buying and selling by none other than big money. Without this buying and selling,

you would not have seen coffee prices break above 200.00.

The first sign of the bull was seen the week of December 9, 2013, and as that continued, a stronger

push came the week of January 27, 2014. See how Swap Dealers moved on the ride up.

Heading into 2015, anyone trading coffee needs to watch the current COT bear in coffee. If it

strengthens, guess where price action is headed …

KC - Coffee - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart


DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE On this Dow chart, we are now looking at Traders in Financial Futures. The two groups you will want

to look at here are Leveraged Funds and Dealer Intermediary.

You can see these two groups are the ones who increase or decrease sell-side selling and buy-side

buying. Earlier in this book I explained that large financial institutions could be placed in more than

one category if they fill out the necessary forms. This means Goldman Sachs, BofA, JPMorgan Chase,

or Citibank in the Dow, SP, or NASDAQ could be classified as a Dealer Intermediary and Leveraged

Funds, which makes for interesting conversation.

See the action in big money as the Dow makes new highs again and again in 2014. And look how

2014 ended. If this action continues into 2015 a nice drop will be under way. Are you ready?

YM - DJIA Mini-Sized - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart


EURO In this Euro Currency Futures chart, you can see in the week of May 12, 2014, Dealer Intermediary

crossed above Leveraged Funds, beginning a very long term down trend. From the last week in

2014, it looks like this downtrend will continue into 2015. The weekly close May 12 was 1.36970;

the weekly close December 29, 1.20130. The COT ended 2014 with Dealer Intermediary adding to

net longs at 179,542 contracts, and Leveraged Funds adding to net shorts at -127,666 contracts.

If you trade Forex, just think how you would apply this data to trading the EURUSD or any other

Forex pair with the Euro.

E6 - Furo FX - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart


YEN In this Japanese Yen Futures weekly chart, we see something remarkable: a strong bear in place

since late 2012. The strong bear presents itself with Dealer Intermediary staying net long since

October 2012. When Shinzo Abe was running for Prime Minister of Japan, he promised to bring

down the Yen. After winning the election, it looks like he made good on his promise—which he

could not have done unless he had the help of big money pushing down the Yen.

In the last week of 2014 for the COT in the Yen, we see Dealer Intermediary once again adding to

net longs, now at 85,847 contracts, and Leveraged Funds adding to net shorts, -80,408 contracts.

J5 - Japanese Yen - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart


USD On this USD Index weekly chart, you can see price action from January 2014 until July 2014 hung

between 79 and 81. Then there were two extreme bull moves by Dealer Intermediary. First, June

9 net long 2,380 contracts moving on June 16 to net short -18,942 contracts. Next break over 81—

hold on tight. The second on September 8, when net shorts were -19,047 contracts, and just one

week later on September 15, net short -42,125.

Solid bull posture here helped the USD break above 91.000 by year’s end.

DX - US Dollar Index - Weekly Nearest Candlestick Chart


NOW YOU KNOW

So now you see that in the past decade, more money has come to the futures industry than at

any other time. Actually more money has come into derivatives from 2000 to 2014 than the

markets saw from 1900 to 2000. In this traders opinion, much of this has to do with the ending

of the Glass-Steagall Act or the US Banking Act of 1933, which occurred in 1999.

The CFTC did the small retail trader a favor by creating the COT Disaggregrated Report and the

Traders in Financial Futures Report. Now more transparent, these Reports can give you the insight

on how the “biggest money” is posturing in any market.

If you have been told that the COT is really complicated to understand, and requires some special

COT index to decipher, someone is trying to sell you something. That couldn’t be further from the

truth. All you need is the proper views and understanding, which you can acquire very quickly by

using Trends in Futures.

Like other valuable trading tools, the COT is not to be used by itself. There are key indicators that

when used with the COT gives you the proper timing signal for entering an extremely high probability

trade. To learn about these indicators and how to incorporate them into more successful trading,

take your own 30-day trial.

In closing, let me add that if you are trading futures, forex, or options and are not using the new

COT Report, you’re missing the big picture. You’re not seeing what is up ahead because you’re not

seeing big money movement.

It would be like standing in a room with three adult wild elephants blindfolded. Not seeing their

movement, I am guessing, would not feel to good. Same goes for your trading and the new COT.

Thanks for taking the time to read how this powerful information can help you. I am always an

email or phone call away to help you better understand anything you have read in this book, or

if you need any assistance in your trading.

Until next time. Be well, trade well, and follow the trends.

All the best,

Gary Kamen

Chief Market Strategist

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


WARNING: FUTURES AND OPTIONS trading involves high risks and YOU can LOSE a lot of money. Examples of historic price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or are likely to occur. Seasonal increases (or decreases) in the demand for commodities do not necessarily result in an increase (or decrease) in the value of the option or futures contract on those commodities because the market has already factored the seasonal demand into the price of the futures or option. This brief statement cannot disclose all the risks and other significant aspects of the commodity markets. You should carefully study commodity trading and consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources before you trade.

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