FINAL July 3 2013

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency FoothillEastern Toll Road Project

Proposed 2013 Restructuring

Financial Advisor Evaluation

FINAL

July 3 2013

Submitted to the California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission

FINAL July 3 2013

Table of Contents

1 Summary and Recommendations

2 Introduction

3 Evaluation Activities and Disclaimer

31 Purpose of Financial Advisor Evaluation 32 Activities Conducted in Evaluation 33 Disclaimer

4 Review of Prior Work

5 Agency Restructuring Plan

6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study

7 Rating Agency Reports

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | i

FINAL July 3 2013

1 Summary and Recommendations

The FoothillEastern (SR 241261133) and San Joaquin Hills (SR 73) Toll Roads were constructed with the proceeds of toll‐revenue bonds issued in the 1990rsquos Debt service on the bonds was structured to grow based on the results of traffic and revenue studies done at the time the bonds were issued However the projected growth rates failed to materialize and actual collections are below the rate needed to keep up with future debt service increases The FoothillEastern Corridor Transportation Agency (the ldquoAgencyrdquo) is undertaking a restructuring of the debt issued for the FoothillEastern Toll Road to among other objectives lower the rate of annual debt service increases defer principal repayment and improve the margin of coverage of debt service by toll revenues The restructuring is expected to increase the tolling period by thirteen years

Because the proposal by the Agency seeks not only to refinance the existing debt but to defer principal payments and extend the tolling period for the purposes of this report the proposed transaction will be referred to as a restructuring Montague DeRose and Associates (MDA) was retained by the California Debt and Advisory Commission (CDIAC) to conduct a financial evaluation and provide its view on whether the restructuring is in the public interest MDA found that based on current traffic and revenue estimates without the restructuring the Agency is not likely to meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases toll revenues would soon fall below the level needed to meet debt service obligations

MDArsquos review did not identify any factors that would raise concerns about the Agency proceeding with its restructuring with two significant exceptions discussed in detail in our report

1 In order to ameliorate the extension of the tolling period the primary public policy drawback of the restructuring we recommend that the Agency set aside a large percentage of the annual cash flow savings of the restructuring to call bonds maturing from 2040 to 2053 the additional period that tolling would be extended This would shorten the tolling period and strengthen the Agencyrsquos financial condition

2 Because of the proposed new payment obligation to Caltrans beginning in 2041 through 2053 we recommend that Caltrans modify the Cooperative Agreement in a manner to protect itself and bondholders from dilution of existing revenues by further expenditures for the Tesoro or Foothill South extension projects For example one way to do this would be to require that Caltrans be presented with and approve a feasibility and financial plan for either the Tesoro extension or the Foothill South projects before any additional funds are spent on those projects While this study does not attempt to analyze the risk of non‐payment that Caltrans faces we believe this modification will help ensure that sufficient surplus revenues are available to make the payments to Caltrans for which the Agency has obligated itself

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 1

FINAL July 3 2013

With these two exceptions MDA believes the Agencyrsquos restructuring is in its best interest as well as in the interest of its bondholders and other stakeholders toll road users and the public in general

2 Introduction

The Agency was formed in 1986 as a joint powers agency by the County of Orange (the ldquoCountyrdquo) and twelve cities in Orange County California The Agency was created to plan design finance construct and operate the Foothill (State Route 241) and Eastern (State Route 241 State Route 261 and State Route 133) Toll Roads

The Agency is one of two transportation corridor joint powers agencies established among the County and various cities within the County in order to plan design finance construct and operate toll roads While the Agency is administered by a common staff with its sister Agency the San Joaquin Hills Agency all policy decisions regarding the FoothillEastern System are made by the Agencyrsquos Board of Directors an appointed body of elected officials separate from the Board of Directors of the San Joaquin Hills Agency The System provides an important connection between the Orange Riverside and San Bernardino Counties

In the mid‐1980s two state laws were passed authorizing the Agency to collect tolls and development impact fees to fund road construction With a pledged revenue stream from future tolls the Agency issued toll‐revenue bonds to fund road construction The Agency also entered into a Cooperative Agreement with the California Department of Transportation (ldquoCaltransrdquo) to assume ownership liability and maintenance of the State Route 241 State Route 261 and State Route 133 Toll Roads as part of the state highway system This agreement eliminates the need for the Agency to pay for road maintenance

In 1995 the Agency issued $126275059770 in principal amount of its Toll Road Revenue Bonds Series 1995A (Fixed Rate) and $245600000 of Series 1995B‐E (Variable Rate) (together the ldquoSeries 1995 Bondsrdquo) The proceeds of the Series 1995 Bonds were used to finance a portion of the costs associated with the design of acquisition of property for and construction of the FoothillEastern toll road

In 1999 the Agency issued $158814386505 in Series 1999 Bonds The Bonds were issued to (i) advance refund a substantial portion of the Series 1995 Fixed Rate Bonds and refund all of the Series 1995 Variable Rate Bonds (ii) fund capitalized interest on the Series 1999 Bonds and fund a toll stabilization fund for the Series 1999 Bonds and (iii) fund a use and occupancy fund for the Series 1999 Bonds Based on the revenue projections by Wilbur Smith Associates (now CDM Smith) debt service on the Agencyrsquos debt was structured to grow at an average rate of 44 per year

According to the Agencyrsquos disclosure document over the past ten years annual traffic transactions on the FoothillEastern System increased by an average of 003 per year and

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 2

FINAL July 3 2013

Table of Contents

1 Summary and Recommendations

2 Introduction

3 Evaluation Activities and Disclaimer

31 Purpose of Financial Advisor Evaluation 32 Activities Conducted in Evaluation 33 Disclaimer

4 Review of Prior Work

5 Agency Restructuring Plan

6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study

7 Rating Agency Reports

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | i

FINAL July 3 2013

1 Summary and Recommendations

The FoothillEastern (SR 241261133) and San Joaquin Hills (SR 73) Toll Roads were constructed with the proceeds of toll‐revenue bonds issued in the 1990rsquos Debt service on the bonds was structured to grow based on the results of traffic and revenue studies done at the time the bonds were issued However the projected growth rates failed to materialize and actual collections are below the rate needed to keep up with future debt service increases The FoothillEastern Corridor Transportation Agency (the ldquoAgencyrdquo) is undertaking a restructuring of the debt issued for the FoothillEastern Toll Road to among other objectives lower the rate of annual debt service increases defer principal repayment and improve the margin of coverage of debt service by toll revenues The restructuring is expected to increase the tolling period by thirteen years

Because the proposal by the Agency seeks not only to refinance the existing debt but to defer principal payments and extend the tolling period for the purposes of this report the proposed transaction will be referred to as a restructuring Montague DeRose and Associates (MDA) was retained by the California Debt and Advisory Commission (CDIAC) to conduct a financial evaluation and provide its view on whether the restructuring is in the public interest MDA found that based on current traffic and revenue estimates without the restructuring the Agency is not likely to meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases toll revenues would soon fall below the level needed to meet debt service obligations

MDArsquos review did not identify any factors that would raise concerns about the Agency proceeding with its restructuring with two significant exceptions discussed in detail in our report

1 In order to ameliorate the extension of the tolling period the primary public policy drawback of the restructuring we recommend that the Agency set aside a large percentage of the annual cash flow savings of the restructuring to call bonds maturing from 2040 to 2053 the additional period that tolling would be extended This would shorten the tolling period and strengthen the Agencyrsquos financial condition

2 Because of the proposed new payment obligation to Caltrans beginning in 2041 through 2053 we recommend that Caltrans modify the Cooperative Agreement in a manner to protect itself and bondholders from dilution of existing revenues by further expenditures for the Tesoro or Foothill South extension projects For example one way to do this would be to require that Caltrans be presented with and approve a feasibility and financial plan for either the Tesoro extension or the Foothill South projects before any additional funds are spent on those projects While this study does not attempt to analyze the risk of non‐payment that Caltrans faces we believe this modification will help ensure that sufficient surplus revenues are available to make the payments to Caltrans for which the Agency has obligated itself

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 1

FINAL July 3 2013

With these two exceptions MDA believes the Agencyrsquos restructuring is in its best interest as well as in the interest of its bondholders and other stakeholders toll road users and the public in general

2 Introduction

The Agency was formed in 1986 as a joint powers agency by the County of Orange (the ldquoCountyrdquo) and twelve cities in Orange County California The Agency was created to plan design finance construct and operate the Foothill (State Route 241) and Eastern (State Route 241 State Route 261 and State Route 133) Toll Roads

The Agency is one of two transportation corridor joint powers agencies established among the County and various cities within the County in order to plan design finance construct and operate toll roads While the Agency is administered by a common staff with its sister Agency the San Joaquin Hills Agency all policy decisions regarding the FoothillEastern System are made by the Agencyrsquos Board of Directors an appointed body of elected officials separate from the Board of Directors of the San Joaquin Hills Agency The System provides an important connection between the Orange Riverside and San Bernardino Counties

In the mid‐1980s two state laws were passed authorizing the Agency to collect tolls and development impact fees to fund road construction With a pledged revenue stream from future tolls the Agency issued toll‐revenue bonds to fund road construction The Agency also entered into a Cooperative Agreement with the California Department of Transportation (ldquoCaltransrdquo) to assume ownership liability and maintenance of the State Route 241 State Route 261 and State Route 133 Toll Roads as part of the state highway system This agreement eliminates the need for the Agency to pay for road maintenance

In 1995 the Agency issued $126275059770 in principal amount of its Toll Road Revenue Bonds Series 1995A (Fixed Rate) and $245600000 of Series 1995B‐E (Variable Rate) (together the ldquoSeries 1995 Bondsrdquo) The proceeds of the Series 1995 Bonds were used to finance a portion of the costs associated with the design of acquisition of property for and construction of the FoothillEastern toll road

In 1999 the Agency issued $158814386505 in Series 1999 Bonds The Bonds were issued to (i) advance refund a substantial portion of the Series 1995 Fixed Rate Bonds and refund all of the Series 1995 Variable Rate Bonds (ii) fund capitalized interest on the Series 1999 Bonds and fund a toll stabilization fund for the Series 1999 Bonds and (iii) fund a use and occupancy fund for the Series 1999 Bonds Based on the revenue projections by Wilbur Smith Associates (now CDM Smith) debt service on the Agencyrsquos debt was structured to grow at an average rate of 44 per year

According to the Agencyrsquos disclosure document over the past ten years annual traffic transactions on the FoothillEastern System increased by an average of 003 per year and

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 2

FINAL July 3 2013

1 Summary and Recommendations

The FoothillEastern (SR 241261133) and San Joaquin Hills (SR 73) Toll Roads were constructed with the proceeds of toll‐revenue bonds issued in the 1990rsquos Debt service on the bonds was structured to grow based on the results of traffic and revenue studies done at the time the bonds were issued However the projected growth rates failed to materialize and actual collections are below the rate needed to keep up with future debt service increases The FoothillEastern Corridor Transportation Agency (the ldquoAgencyrdquo) is undertaking a restructuring of the debt issued for the FoothillEastern Toll Road to among other objectives lower the rate of annual debt service increases defer principal repayment and improve the margin of coverage of debt service by toll revenues The restructuring is expected to increase the tolling period by thirteen years

Because the proposal by the Agency seeks not only to refinance the existing debt but to defer principal payments and extend the tolling period for the purposes of this report the proposed transaction will be referred to as a restructuring Montague DeRose and Associates (MDA) was retained by the California Debt and Advisory Commission (CDIAC) to conduct a financial evaluation and provide its view on whether the restructuring is in the public interest MDA found that based on current traffic and revenue estimates without the restructuring the Agency is not likely to meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases toll revenues would soon fall below the level needed to meet debt service obligations

MDArsquos review did not identify any factors that would raise concerns about the Agency proceeding with its restructuring with two significant exceptions discussed in detail in our report

1 In order to ameliorate the extension of the tolling period the primary public policy drawback of the restructuring we recommend that the Agency set aside a large percentage of the annual cash flow savings of the restructuring to call bonds maturing from 2040 to 2053 the additional period that tolling would be extended This would shorten the tolling period and strengthen the Agencyrsquos financial condition

2 Because of the proposed new payment obligation to Caltrans beginning in 2041 through 2053 we recommend that Caltrans modify the Cooperative Agreement in a manner to protect itself and bondholders from dilution of existing revenues by further expenditures for the Tesoro or Foothill South extension projects For example one way to do this would be to require that Caltrans be presented with and approve a feasibility and financial plan for either the Tesoro extension or the Foothill South projects before any additional funds are spent on those projects While this study does not attempt to analyze the risk of non‐payment that Caltrans faces we believe this modification will help ensure that sufficient surplus revenues are available to make the payments to Caltrans for which the Agency has obligated itself

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 1

FINAL July 3 2013

With these two exceptions MDA believes the Agencyrsquos restructuring is in its best interest as well as in the interest of its bondholders and other stakeholders toll road users and the public in general

2 Introduction

The Agency was formed in 1986 as a joint powers agency by the County of Orange (the ldquoCountyrdquo) and twelve cities in Orange County California The Agency was created to plan design finance construct and operate the Foothill (State Route 241) and Eastern (State Route 241 State Route 261 and State Route 133) Toll Roads

The Agency is one of two transportation corridor joint powers agencies established among the County and various cities within the County in order to plan design finance construct and operate toll roads While the Agency is administered by a common staff with its sister Agency the San Joaquin Hills Agency all policy decisions regarding the FoothillEastern System are made by the Agencyrsquos Board of Directors an appointed body of elected officials separate from the Board of Directors of the San Joaquin Hills Agency The System provides an important connection between the Orange Riverside and San Bernardino Counties

In the mid‐1980s two state laws were passed authorizing the Agency to collect tolls and development impact fees to fund road construction With a pledged revenue stream from future tolls the Agency issued toll‐revenue bonds to fund road construction The Agency also entered into a Cooperative Agreement with the California Department of Transportation (ldquoCaltransrdquo) to assume ownership liability and maintenance of the State Route 241 State Route 261 and State Route 133 Toll Roads as part of the state highway system This agreement eliminates the need for the Agency to pay for road maintenance

In 1995 the Agency issued $126275059770 in principal amount of its Toll Road Revenue Bonds Series 1995A (Fixed Rate) and $245600000 of Series 1995B‐E (Variable Rate) (together the ldquoSeries 1995 Bondsrdquo) The proceeds of the Series 1995 Bonds were used to finance a portion of the costs associated with the design of acquisition of property for and construction of the FoothillEastern toll road

In 1999 the Agency issued $158814386505 in Series 1999 Bonds The Bonds were issued to (i) advance refund a substantial portion of the Series 1995 Fixed Rate Bonds and refund all of the Series 1995 Variable Rate Bonds (ii) fund capitalized interest on the Series 1999 Bonds and fund a toll stabilization fund for the Series 1999 Bonds and (iii) fund a use and occupancy fund for the Series 1999 Bonds Based on the revenue projections by Wilbur Smith Associates (now CDM Smith) debt service on the Agencyrsquos debt was structured to grow at an average rate of 44 per year

According to the Agencyrsquos disclosure document over the past ten years annual traffic transactions on the FoothillEastern System increased by an average of 003 per year and

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 2

FINAL July 3 2013

With these two exceptions MDA believes the Agencyrsquos restructuring is in its best interest as well as in the interest of its bondholders and other stakeholders toll road users and the public in general

2 Introduction

The Agency was formed in 1986 as a joint powers agency by the County of Orange (the ldquoCountyrdquo) and twelve cities in Orange County California The Agency was created to plan design finance construct and operate the Foothill (State Route 241) and Eastern (State Route 241 State Route 261 and State Route 133) Toll Roads

The Agency is one of two transportation corridor joint powers agencies established among the County and various cities within the County in order to plan design finance construct and operate toll roads While the Agency is administered by a common staff with its sister Agency the San Joaquin Hills Agency all policy decisions regarding the FoothillEastern System are made by the Agencyrsquos Board of Directors an appointed body of elected officials separate from the Board of Directors of the San Joaquin Hills Agency The System provides an important connection between the Orange Riverside and San Bernardino Counties

In the mid‐1980s two state laws were passed authorizing the Agency to collect tolls and development impact fees to fund road construction With a pledged revenue stream from future tolls the Agency issued toll‐revenue bonds to fund road construction The Agency also entered into a Cooperative Agreement with the California Department of Transportation (ldquoCaltransrdquo) to assume ownership liability and maintenance of the State Route 241 State Route 261 and State Route 133 Toll Roads as part of the state highway system This agreement eliminates the need for the Agency to pay for road maintenance

In 1995 the Agency issued $126275059770 in principal amount of its Toll Road Revenue Bonds Series 1995A (Fixed Rate) and $245600000 of Series 1995B‐E (Variable Rate) (together the ldquoSeries 1995 Bondsrdquo) The proceeds of the Series 1995 Bonds were used to finance a portion of the costs associated with the design of acquisition of property for and construction of the FoothillEastern toll road

In 1999 the Agency issued $158814386505 in Series 1999 Bonds The Bonds were issued to (i) advance refund a substantial portion of the Series 1995 Fixed Rate Bonds and refund all of the Series 1995 Variable Rate Bonds (ii) fund capitalized interest on the Series 1999 Bonds and fund a toll stabilization fund for the Series 1999 Bonds and (iii) fund a use and occupancy fund for the Series 1999 Bonds Based on the revenue projections by Wilbur Smith Associates (now CDM Smith) debt service on the Agencyrsquos debt was structured to grow at an average rate of 44 per year

According to the Agencyrsquos disclosure document over the past ten years annual traffic transactions on the FoothillEastern System increased by an average of 003 per year and

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 2

FINAL July 3 2013

annual revenues have increased by an average of approximately 3 per year during the same ten‐year period This is below the rate needed to keep up with escalating debt service

In FY 2007‐08 average weekday transactions decreased 5 falling below 202000 per day with annual revenues down 3 to $1028 million Decreases in toll transactions and revenues continued to worsen the following year dropping an additional 8 to $941 million in FY 2008‐09 with average weekday transactions of approximately 185000 per day Toll transactions continued to fall in 2009‐10 to approximately 173000 per day due at least in part to a toll increase in July that averaged 12 However 2009‐10 revenues increased 6 to $997 million Toll transactions in FY 2010‐11 and FY 2011‐12 were flat with almost no growth however given the implementation of a system‐wide toll increase in July 2011 of 7 on average revenues increased 7 from FY 2010‐11 to FY 2011‐12 The Agency has approved a further toll increase of 48 for FY 2013‐14 and has projected for budgeting purposes that annual gross revenues will increase by an equivalent amount reflecting no growth in toll traffic

The slower than anticipated revenue growth compared to the growth in debt service of 44 annually has made it necessary for the Agency to consider restructuring its debt in order to meet its bond covenants and payment obligations

31 Purpose of Financial Advisor Evaluation

The Agency is undertaking an approximately $24 billion restructuring of debt for the FoothillEastern project According to an Agency staff report to the Board dated June 13 2013 the proposed restructuring allows the Agency to take advantage of historically low interest rates to lower its debt payments and provides additional financial benefits as follows

Lowers the average rate at which annual debt service increases from 44 to 35 Improves margin of coverage of debt service by toll revenues thereby providing a cushion

in the event of future recessions Provides greater latitude in managing toll rates to reflect economic conditions traffic

patterns and toll elasticity Does not use the escrow defeasance fund to meet debt service coverage Preserves credit ratings Reduces maximum annual debt service significantly Creates a flexible financing structure that can be used to either pay down debt early or fund

additional capital projects such as the 24191 Connector and other improvements to the State highway system

MDA was retained by CDIAC to conduct this financial evaluation and provide its view on whether the restructuring is in the public interest

At least three reasons exist why the Agency restructuring is of statewide interest

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 3

FINAL July 3 2013

1 The original creation of the Agency foresaw the day that the toll road bonds would be repaid the tolling ended and the Foothill and Eastern roads would become part of the state freeway system It is in the public interest to see that the tolls end as soon as practicable One negative aspect to the restructuring is that the tolling period will be increased by thirteen years from 2040 to 2053

2 The draft Caltrans Cooperative Agreement includes annual payments to be made to Caltrans from 2041 to 2053 These payments increase from $141 million in 2041 to $189 million in 2053 and are made only from surplus revenues It is in the public interest to ensure that these payments are made on a timely basis in order for Caltrans to carry on its important work on behalf of the public

3 A default on the Agencyrsquos bonds could have a negative effect on the outlook of investors on the creditworthiness of California in general potentially making it more difficult and costly for other California issuers to raise funds in the capital markets

32 Activities Conducted in Evaluation

To conduct the financial evaluation MDA performed the following tasks and analyses

Reviewed the methodology and underlying assumptions of the Agencyrsquos proposed restructuring model for accuracy completeness and reasonableness MDA identified recommended revisions for completeness and updated information as applicable This review included a review of the underwritersrsquo proposed refunding financial model

Examined risks associated with proposed restructuring plan MDA examined the various elements of the Agencyrsquos proposed refunding and identifies additional factors that could have an impact on the Agencyrsquos viability and ability to meet bond covenants and its payment obligations

Reviewed the Stantec (the ldquoTampR Consultantrdquo) Traffic and Revenue (ldquoTampRrdquo) Study MDA reviewed the TampR study and held a conference call with the TampR consultant who prepared the study

Review of Agencyrsquos bond documents MDA reviewed the Agencyrsquos bond documents for covenants and terms as they relate to the proposed restructuring and ongoing obligations

Reviewed the Agencyrsquos Financial Statements and provided pro‐forma financial statements for the next ten years MDA reviewed the Agencyrsquos financial statements and developed pro‐forma financial statements for the next ten years both under current conditions and with the restructuring in place

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 4

FINAL July 3 2013

33 Disclaimer

MDA relied on publicly available data provided on the Agencyrsquos website data provided by the Agency to MDA and the financial model developed by the Agencyrsquos underwriting team led by Barclays and Goldman Sachs (the ldquoUnderwritersrdquo) MDA believes that the source data supplied is reliable but assumes no responsibility for its accuracy The statements in this report reflect the views of MDA and are based solely on the material reviewed as of the evaluation date The accuracy of the evaluation depends on the occurrence of future events while there is no assurance that they will occur as planned As of the date of this report interest rates on comparable securities have increased approximately 13 basis points since we were presented with the model on June 14th This is likely to have resulted in a decrease in net present value savings for the restructuring Thus variances between assumed and actual outcomes may occur and could be material

4 Review of Prior Work

MDA undertook a review of the information provided by the Agency as well as publicly available documents presenting the Agencyrsquos financial information The focus of MDArsquos review was the overall financial effectiveness of the Agencyrsquos restructuring plan and the projected ability of the Agency to remain a viable entity MDA reviewed the following items

Agencyrsquos adopted budgets and financial plans Agencyrsquos FY 2012 audited financial statements Agencyrsquos Resolution Authorizing Revenue Refunding Bonds adopted June 13 2013 Agencyrsquos Revenue Refunding Bond rating agency reports from Moodyrsquos Standard amp

Poorrsquos and Fitch Agencyrsquos Continuing Disclosure Filing dated April 30 2013 Agencyrsquos Schedule of Debt Outstanding as of March 31 2013 Various non‐public files which served as inputs to the underwritersrsquo financial model The Master Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The First Supplemental Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The Second Supplemental Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The Third Supplemental Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The Escrow Agreement dated as of June 1 2013 The Continuing Disclosure Certificate of the Agency The Preliminary Official Statement relating to the 2013 Bonds The Dealer Manager Agreement dated as of June 1 2013 The Purchase Contract relating to the Series 2013A Bonds the Series 2013B Bonds and

the Series 2013C Bonds

MDA also conducted discussions with Agency staff its financial team and TampR Consultant MDA held a follow‐up conference call with the Underwritersrsquo to discuss the financial model and

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 5

FINAL July 3 2013

data analysis MDA also held conference calls with Agency personnel to discuss any recent updates to financial information that might not be reflected in published materials

5 Agency Restructuring Plan

The Agencyrsquos restructuring is currently scheduled to be sold the week of July 8 The exact amount and types of bonds offered to the market will vary depending on market conditions According to the financial model provided to us on June 13 2013 the offering would consist of approximately $14 billion of tax‐exempt Senior Lien Toll Road Revenue Bonds Series 2013A (approximately $113 billion of which will be Current Interest Bonds and $270 million of which will be Capital Appreciation Bonds) $210 million of tax‐exempt Junior Lien Toll Road Refunding Revenue Bonds Series 2013B Current Interest Bonds and up to approximately $600 million of tax‐exempt Toll Road Refunding Revenue Bonds Series 2013D Forward Delivery Bonds

The amount of tax‐exempt Series 2013D Forward Delivery Bonds will be reduced and there will be a corresponding increase in the current delivery Series 2013A bonds should the Agencyrsquos tender offer for a portion of its outstanding bonds be successful The amount of Series 2013C Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds will be sufficient to affect the full defeasance of the Series 1999 bonds in July 2013 and will be refunded by the Series 2013C Bonds on October 17 2013

Restructuring Objectives The Agencyrsquos existing annual debt service obligation is $105 million in 2013 growing steadily at approximately 44 per year to a maximum level of approximately $298 million in 2040 The objective of the restructuring will be to refund and restructure most of the Agencyrsquos $24 billion in outstanding bonds On June 13 Agency staff recommended to its Board to move forward with the restructuring so long as the rate of debt service growth is 350 or below on average maximum annual debt service is reduced substantially a majority of the new bonds are callable at par after ten years and there are present value savings or the present value loss of the refinancing is not substantial Agency staff states that achieving these objectives will improve the Agencyrsquos long‐term financial stability and near‐term financial flexibility and preserve its credit ratings Please see Exhibits 1 through 8 for the debt service schedules under the existing debt structure and with the restructuring in place

Under the restructuring the Agency staff believes it will have more latitude to manage toll rates given economic conditions traffic patterns and toll rate elasticity Lower annual debt service should also eliminate the need for the Agency to commit cash from unrestricted reserves to fund an escrow defeasance fund to meet debt service coverage covenant requirements a practice the rating agencies have cited as a negative credit factor A lower annual debt service growth rate of 35 is below the average revenue growth of 455 between 2014 and 2053 projected by the TampR Consultant

Restructuring Details According to the June 12 2013 Agency staff report to the Board based upon market interest

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 6

FINAL July 3 2013

rates and assumed credit ratings the proposed structure includes the following

Positive Present Value Savings With current interest rates the net present value savings from the restructuring would be 27 (most issuers have at least a 3 threshold of net present value savings for a refunding) However Agency staff has stated market conditions may change through the date of sale and in fact there has been a significant increase in both taxable and tax‐exempt interest rates since the issuance of the staff report and the Board action damaging the economics of the transaction The Agency has stated that the refinancing will be executed if the Agency generates present value debt service savings or a minimal present value loss

Lower Debt Service Growth Rates The refinancing results in (i) an annual debt service growth rate of 35 or below versus the current 44 (ii) increased debt service coverage margins over the term of the refunding bonds (iii) reduced debt service payments between 2014 and 2040 and (iv) lower maximum annual debt service resulting in a lower debt service reserve requirement

Callable Debt A significant majority of the new debt is callable at par (no premium) in ten years Before year ten all of the debt is callable at a premium based upon a ldquomake wholerdquo call formula

Final maturity The final maturity of the bonds will be extended to 2053 (from the current final maturity date of 2040) in order to lower the annual growth rate in debt service and defer principal repayment

Senior and Subordinate Bonds Approximately $200 million of subordinate or Junior Lien bonds will be issued as part of the overall restructuring in order to lower costs and improve savings by reducing the issuance of Capital Appreciation Bonds

Toll Rate Covenant Senior debt coverage will remain at 130x but aggregate coverage on all bonds (including the junior lien) will be 115x

Credit Ratings Baa3 BBB‐ and BBB‐ on senior lien debt and Ba1 BB+ and BB on subordinate bonds from Moodyrsquos SampP and Fitch respectively

Use of Escrow Defeasance Fund The refinancing has been structured to meet the Agencyrsquos covenant requirements without reliance on the Escrow Defeasance Fund

Debt Service Reserves Debt Service Reserve sizing is based on maximum annual debt service which will be reduced significantly Excess existing bond debt service reserves will be released to pay down debt andor reduce the amount of refunding bonds

Other Features The restructuring will initiate a tender offer on the 1999 convertible capital appreciation bonds that are not currently callable and issue taxable bonds andor forward delivery bonds for any such bonds that are not purchased through the tender process

Elements of the restructuring plan merit additional examination

1 Extension of Final Maturity The currently outstanding bond structure has a final maturity of January 1 2040 However under the restructuring the final maturity will be extended to 2053 in order to achieve the

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 7

FINAL July 3 2013

Agencyrsquos goals of lowering annual debt service levels enhancing debt service coverage lowering peak debt service and reducing the debt service growth rate

Lower debt service reduced debt service growth and better coverage should produce excess revenue which the Agency plans to utilize to pay down debt or fund capital projects Because of the call features of the restructuring bonds the Agency will have the option to use excess revenue to retire debt early

MDArsquos view on the extension of the final maturity is that it is an essential part of the restructuring plan However as mentioned the public policy drawback to the extension is that it extends the tolling period of the FoothillEastern an additional thirteen years We believe that one way to mitigate the damage caused by extending the tolling period is to reduce the extended period by prepaying the debt maturing during the extended period by setting aside a significant percentage (eg 50) of the annual debt service savings from the restructuring in an escrow account to be used for calling bonds beginning with the longest maturities on the first possible call date

2 Junior (or Subordinate) Lien Debt By selling a portion (estimated to be approximately $200 million as June 14 2013) of the refunding bonds on a junior lien basis instead of expensive senior lien Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquoCABsrdquo) the Agency can increase savings Junior lien bonds also have a lower debt service coverage requirement (115x aggregate debt service) than does senior lien debt (130x coverage ratio) As of June 13 2013 the use of junior lien bonds reduces the amount of senior lien CABs needed in the refinancing to approximately $270 million and shortens the final maturity of the senior lien CABs which lowers costs and adds call flexibility

MDArsquos view is that the Junior Lien debt is helpful to the restructuring in terms of cost and flexibility compared to the alternative of issuing additional Senior Lien CABs

3 Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Forward Delivery Bonds All of the 1999 Bonds must be refunded at the same time to meet the refunding test of the Master Indenture Approximately $580 million of Convertible Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquo1999 C‐CABsrdquo) cannot be refunded on a tax‐exempt basis prior to October 17 2013 Thus the proposed restructuring plan includes the use of an Invitation to Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds in order to lock in todayrsquos interest rates

Under the Invitation to Tender the Agency will offer to purchase the 1999 C‐CABs from existing investors at a price advantageous to the Agency The tender price will be set at a level that produces savings to the Agency greater than the savings produced by the alternative financing structure which is taxable callable stepped coupon bonds combined with forward delivery bonds The Agency CFO and CEO will decide if a tender price may be accepted in consultation with the Agencyrsquos Financial Advisor (PFM)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 8

FINAL July 3 2013

If there is an insufficient amount of 1999 C‐CAB tenders the Agency has an alternative financing structure that will lock in todayrsquos interest rates The Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds may be issued now to refund the 1999 C‐CABs The taxable bonds will have a lower taxable rate initially and will be callable at par on October 17 2013 Failure to call the Taxable Stepped Coupon Bonds by January 15 2014 will result in an increase in a stepped‐up interest rate on the bonds to a significantly higher penalty rate

To lock in long‐term tax‐exempt rates and provide a funding source to call the taxable bonds on October 17 2013 the long‐term Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds will be sold simultaneously with the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds (the interest rate will be set based upon current market levels) but will be delivered on October 17 2013 The Agency assumes the risk that the Forward Delivery bonds fail to be settled and delivered on October 17 2013 but the Agency considers the risk to be somewhat remote

In the unlikely event the Forward Delivery Bonds fail to close the Agency has the option between October 17 2013 and January 15 2014 of refunding the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds by issuing additional tax‐exempt or taxable bonds at the then current interest rates If the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds are not called and retired on October 17 2013 by the Forward Delivery Bonds or by other refunding Bonds before January 15 2014 the interest rate on these bonds increases or steps up to the higher penalty rate

MDArsquos view is that the tender structure is a low risk practical means of lowering the Agencyrsquos cost to call the C‐CABS If sufficient tender offers are not received issuing the taxable and Forward Delivery Bonds is a reasonable alternative

4 Use of Callable CABs The restructuring plan includes the use of $270 million of CABs an expensive and controversial type of security that compounds interest and defers interest payments to investors

While CABs must be used with great discretion there is a valuable use for them in certain very specific instances Because of the toll roadrsquos revenue structure and the Agencyrsquos familiarity with the financing structure from previous transactions MDArsquos view is that they are a necessary and appropriate element of this restructuring

MDA did not find any serious flaws with the Agencyrsquos restructuring plan that would require a delay in the proposed timing for the bonds sale currently scheduled for the week of July 8 MDA does recommend however the following revisions to the proposed restructuring plan be considered

1 Under the revised Cooperative Agreement payments to Caltrans will be made from surplus revenues available after Current Expenses and debt payments are made Based

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 9

FINAL July 3 2013

on the pro forma model sufficient surplus revenues are anticipated to make these payments The primary payment risk to Caltrans is that Current Expenses are far greater than anticipated or new debt is issued for the Tesoro Extension or Foothill South Extension without having offsetting revenues Thus because of the potential negative impact on the Agency to meet its future payment obligations to Caltrans Caltrans should modify the Cooperative Agreement in a manner to protect itself and bondholders from dilution of existing revenues for the extension projects For example one way to do this would be to require that none of the bond proceeds or cash flow savings should be used to fund the Foothill South or Tesoro Extension projects without Caltrans being presented with and approving a feasibility and financial plan for these projects

2 To offset the impact on the public of extending toll collection on the project an additional thirteen years a portion of the annual cash flow savings from the restructuring should be devoted to calling the bonds starting with the longest maturities first in order to shorten the time the tolls are in effect According to our calculations if all surplus revenues resulting from the restructuring from 2014 to 2039 were used to call bonds maturing from 2041 to 2053 the tolls could be ended in 2040 as is currently the case Alternatively recognizing the Agencyrsquos need for capital improvement funding setting aside 50 of the cash flow savings from the restructuring would enable the tolling to end in 2046 cutting seven years from the anticipated tolling end in 2053 ameliorating the major public policy drawback of the Agencyrsquos restructuring

6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study

In the past the Agencyrsquos previous TampR studies by Wilbur Smith Associates have significantly over‐estimated revenues lending to an over‐issuance of debt The Agency retained Stantec Consulting Services Inc to provide a traffic and revenue study to forecast future traffic and revenue generating capability of the Project through 2053 The TampR study also serves as the basis for the rating agencies to provide ratings for the refunding bonds Stantecrsquos Base Case toll schedule projects an average toll revenue growth rate of 455 between 2014 and 2053 with rates of 4 to 9 between now and 2024 based upon projected traffic volume increases and toll rate increases of 25 to 3 on average Despite the TampR consultantrsquos projection of 455 revenue growth the Agency restructured the debt service growth rate at 35 to be conservative

The TampR Consultant assumed the SR 91SR 241 connector is built and provides increased traffic demand on the toll road However while it is anticipated that there will be a fee to enter the 91241 connector no revenue generated from entrance fees to the 91241 connector was included in the forecast Improvements to the I‐5 were included as part of the future year networks The TampR Study assumes the Tesoro Extension and Foothill South projects are not built during the study period

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 10

FINAL July 3 2013

As part of our financial evaluation MDA reviewed the TampR study and developed a list of questions which served as the basis for a call with the TampR consultant on June 18th

Our questions and the TampR consultantrsquos answers are summarized below

Questions Answers

1) The TampR study assumes driving habits will stay essentially the same over the study period Yet one of the observable trends in transportation is that people are driving less to work because of telecommuting ridesharing moving to population centers where public transit is available etc Should the TampR study have addressed this at least in sensitivity

1) This factor is not applicable to Orange County as residents are very dependent on their cars for transportation and options for public transit are not good

2) The elasticity of demand is a major factor in toll revenue projections Two related questions a In the TampR report decreases in demand

are explained primarily by the impact of the recession Do you fell elasticity of demand was given adequate consideration

b The TampR report assumes the impact of elasticity is linear Could you explain that as it seems counterintuitive

2a) Yes this factor is monitored carefully and ten yearsrsquo worth of data is available to analyze

2b) TampR report provides adequate discussion of elasticity of demand

3) Could you explain why a traffic increase is assumed related to the construction of the SR 241SR 91 but no associated revenue

3) For the 91241 connector the anticipated $2 fee to use the connector is not included but increased traffic on the toll road generated from the connector is included in the revenue projections

4) The TampR study does not address whether the driverrsquos value of travel time savings has changed because of the recession Could you address that

4) The value of time saving in the TampR model is based on the 2012 recessionary conditions and thus no further change is needed

5) The Sensitivity Analysis section is fairly short Was any thought given to the impact of competing facilities after the Caltrans non‐compete agreement ends in 2020 Or the elasticity of demand Or testing for changes in the value of travel time savings

5) The 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization scenarios bracket the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities are not needed

6) Was a peer review done or is one contemplated

6) No peer review is planned

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 11

FINAL July 3 2013

The TampR consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case projection and an All‐Electric tolling (AET) The AET projection assumes all electronic tolling will be in place in the summer of 2014 Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for the Base Case and AET revenue projections

1 In addition the TampR consultant estimated the gross annual revenue impact for two additional scenarios (The TampR consultant did not project annual revenues for these two additional scenarios) A 2020 recession which effectively forecasted no economic growth in the next eight years The result was a 27 reduction in revenues for FY 2020

2 A Revenue Maximization projection in which rates at all mainline toll plazas were increased to the point of maximum revenue generation The impact of this scenario was an increase in revenues of 140 in 2035

When asked why more sensitivities were not run the TampR consultant responded that the two additional scenarios (the 2020 recession and the Revenue Maximization) bracketed the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities were not necessary However MDA believes that it is important to understand the impact on the financial model to changes in major variables Therefore we undertook to run our own set of sensitivities which are discussed below

In our view while we do not believe the TampR study is fatally flawed it does suffer from several deficiencies First an insufficient number of sensitivities are considered such as testing such variables as elasticity of demand change in the value of travel savings and the impact of competing facilities This is particularly important as both Moodyrsquos and Fitch note that the projectrsquos toll rates are high relative to its peers Additionally the data provided on the TampR studyrsquos two sensitivities for the 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization is only for one year leaving unexplained what happens before and after that year

Sensitivity Analyses MDA conducted a number of sensitivity analyses to test the impact of various variables in the restructuring These analyses help to determine whether 1) the restructuring is necessary and 2) how a change in the revenue variables might affect the Agencyrsquos financial situation

1 Need for Restructuring

To help determine the need for the restructuring MDA ran debt service coverages under two debt service coverage scenarios

a Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service as it currently exists (please see Exhibit 3 for more details) b Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service after the restructuring (please see Exhibit 1 for more details) c Using no revenue growth with existing debt service and (please see Exhibit 4 for more details) d Using no revenue growth with restructured debt service (please see Exhibit 5 for more details)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 12

FINAL July 3 2013

The results of these scenarios are as follows

Base Case Revenues with Base Case Revenues with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

104x (2016) 136x (2015)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

132x (2039) 346x (2053)

Average Senior Lien Coverage 121x 212x Years Below 13x Coverage 25 0 Years Below 10x Coverage 0 0

No Revenue Growth with No Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

032x (2040) 049x (2053)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage 101x (2014) 138x (2014) Average Senior Lien Coverage 059x 078x Years Below 13x Coverage 26 35 Years Below 10x Coverage 24 30

The larger number of years below the coverage requirement is due to the fact that the final maturity of the bonds is extended with the restructured debt service

Clearly without the restructuring the Agency cannot meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases coverages would soon fall below 100x debt service obligations

Variable Sensitivities To test the sensitivity of a number of important variables on the Agencyrsquos post‐restructuring debt profile MDA ran the following sensitivities

1 amp 2 The TampR Consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case and an All‐Electronic Tolling (ldquoAETrdquo) scenario The only difference between the two projections is a one‐time revenue loss of $45 million in 2014 due to discounts provided to drivers for using electronic tolling The TampR Consultant assumes that no further impact on revenues occurs thereafter Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for additional detail

3 The TampR Consultant also provides the general effect of a 2020 recession by assuming revenues decline from the Base Case to $127270000 in 2020 For the purposes of running our sensitivity we assumed this decrease occurs on a pro rata basis through 2020 and then revenue grows annually thereafter by the same percentage growth as shown in the Base Case Please see Exhibit 6 for additional detail

4 The TampR Consultant observes that based on historical results the elasticity of

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 13

FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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mRunXvXRYvXYUhXXhhZunXb[X]SSn[`hXXYuhvSRhXhuRXmulXXYmxX]^]Xh^_XYYnXXvhXYssX XYvuhXYRu]SSn[`hXmZRRuYvXSaXYXSYhXSsXvbuXRu`YvXuXsZvZRuXmRunXvXRXhcXSsXuYvXvXuhlXmRunXvmS]]Xv]uYvhlXSRXnubvXSRXnubvV XcuXhumZRXvXuhlXYYnXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnXRuhuYRmbaZb XmYvXSYhXaZb XhbunXb[X]SSn[`hX]^]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYh^_X]Y[XXYm`ZnuX]SSn[`hmZRRuYvXSaXYXSYhXSsXvbuXRu`YvXuXsZvZRuXmRunXvXRXhcXSsXuYvXvXuhlXmRunXvXmS]]Xv]uYvhlSRXnubvXSRXnubvV XcuXhumZRXvXuhxX]SSn[`hXnusXYuhXmRunXvXRXhcXYhXvbuXRXhcXvbYvXYYuYvXv[X]Y[XYSvX]uuvXXvhXmSYvRYmvZY lXsXYYYmXY XSb XUYvXSYhXYhXvbu[XmS]uXnZuXYYnXYY[uhvX]YvunXsXYYYmXY X`ShhXXYXvbuXuuYvXSsXnusYZ`vxXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXnSXYSvXYnnRuhhXYY[SvbuRXRXhclXXYm`ZnXYUXbZvXYSvX X]XvunXvSX XdZXnXv[XRXhclX]YRcuvXY`ZuXRXhclXSRXaRXmuS`YvX Xv[xXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnX]SSn[`hXSaXYXSYhXXYm`ZnunXXYX]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYhXYRuYSvXhvYvu]uYvhXSsXmZRRuYvXSRXbXhvSRXmY XsYmvxXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnX]SSn[`haZb XmYvXSYhXnSXYSvXmSYhvXvZvuXSRXaRSXnuXXYuhv]uYvXSRXsXYYYmXY XYnXmulXYYn

mRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnX]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYhXYRuXYSvXYYnXnSXYSvXaRSXnuRumS]]uYnYvXSYhXvSXaZRmbYhulXhu` lXSRXbS`nXaYRvXmZ`YRXhumZRXvXuhxXYuXvbuRXmRunXvRYvXYUhXYSRX]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYhXmS]]uYvXSYXvbuXhZXvYbX Xv[XSsXYYXXYuhv]uYvXsSRYY[XaYRvXmZ`YRXXYuhvSRxX]SSn[`hXXhhZuhXXvhXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnXaZb XhbuhX]SSn[`haZb XmYvXSYhXeXvbXvbuXufaumvYvXSYXYYnXZYnuRhvYYnXYUXvbYvXuYmbXXYuhvSRXeX` X]YcuXvhXSeYXhvZn[XYYnXuY`ZYvXSYXSsXuYmbXhumZRXv[XvbYvXXhXZYnuRXmSYhXnuRYvXSYXsSRaZRmbYhulXbS`nXYUlXSRXhY`ux

skkQiNBDd_sliDNQgtDNlsiN$QR$d$iNQiqQMdDl$gtl$QpRQksJVQiNgtkOiNltQpOlQNDlQki_il$QlDV gtDMRdiltRlQksJVQsNQNDN$QDBQqOgtRQiNBDd_sliDNQ_sRQp$QgtDMi$QDdQDlR$dJiq$ d$MdDOgt$VQd$MsgtPslt$VQBOdlR$dQldsNq_ill$VQldsNqB$dd$VQiqq$_iNsl$V d$iqldipOl$QDdQd$qDkVQDdQqlDd$QBDdQqOpq$VO$NlQOq$QBDdQsNRQqOgtRQMOdMDq$VQiN JRDk$QDdQiNQMsdlVQiNQsNRQBDd_QDdQ_sNN$dQDdQpRQsNRQ_$sNqQJRslqD$T$dVQpRQsNRQM$dqDN JilRDOlQ_DDRbqQMdiDdQJdill$NQgtDNq$NlIQsmmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQSGfegYO`QGaQ_DDRbq nTStQcSXT9OcQGOmgOoO`QGaQgfQfSQGOQe99XTefOQeY`QTOmgeGmOIQpO9eXcOQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQFXteYQSTQtO9FeYg9emQOTTSTQec POmmQecQSfFOTQne9fSTcVQFSPOoOTVQemmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQampTSog`O`QEsqQiqEQPgfFSXfQPeTTeYfaQSnQeYaQUgY`I _DDRbqQe`SampfcQemmQYO9OcceTaQtOecXTOcQcSQfFefQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQgfQXcOcQgYQeccghYgYhQeQ9TO`gfQTefgYhQgcQSnQcXnng9gOYf QXemgfaQeY`QnTStQcSXT9OcQ_SS`abcQ9SYcg`OTcQfSQGOQTOmgeGmOVQgY9mX`gYhVQPFOYQeampampTSampTgefOVQgY`OampOY`OYfQfFgT`^ampeTfa cSXT9OcIQRSPOoOTVQ_DDRbqQgcQYSfQeYQeX`gfSTQeY`Q9eYYSfQgYQOoOTaQgYcfeY9OQgY`OampOY`OYfmaQoOTgnaQSTQoemg`efO gYnSTtefgSYQTO9OgoO`QgYQfFOQTefgYhQampTS9OccIQOY`OTQYSQ9gT9XtcfeY9OcQcFemmQ_DDRbqQFeoOQeYaQmgeGgmgfaQfSQeYa ampOTcSYQSTQOYfgfaQnSTQAeCQeYaQmSccQSTQ`etehOQgYQPFSmOQSTQgYQampeTfQ9eXcO`QGaVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStVQSTQTOmefgYhQfSVQeYaQOTTST AYOhmghOYfQSTQSfFOTPgcOCQSTQSfFOTQ9gT9XtcfeY9OQSTQ9SYfgYhOY9aQPgfFgYQSTQSXfcg`OQfFOQ9SYfTSmQSnQ_DDRbqQSTQeYaQSn gfcQ`gTO9fSTcVQSnng9OTcVQOtampmSaOOcQSTQehOYfcQgYQ9SYYO9fgSYQPgfFQfFOQampTS9XTOtOYfVQ9SmmO9fgSYVQ9StampgmefgSYVQeYemacgcV gYfOTampTOfefgSYVQ9SttXYg9efgSYVQampXGmg9efgSYQSTQ`OmgoOTaQSnQeYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYVQSTQAGCQeYaQ`gTO9fVQgY`gTO9fVQcampO9gemV 9SYcOQXOYfgemVQ9StampOYcefSTaQSTQgY9g`OYfemQ`etehOcQPFefcSOoOTQAgY9mX`gYhQPgfFSXfQmgtgfefgSYVQmScfQampTSngfcCVQOoOYQgn _DDRbqQgcQe`ogcO`QgYQe`oeY9OQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQcX9FQ`etehOcVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStQfFOQXcOQSnQSTQgYeGgmgfaQfSQXcOV eYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYIQlFOQTefgYhcVQngYeY9gemQTOampSTfgYhQeYemacgcVQampTSHO9fgSYcVQeY`QSfFOTQSGcOToefgSYcVQgnQeYaV 9SYcfgfXfgYhQampeTfQSnQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQeTOVQeY`QtXcfQGOQ9SYcfTXO`QcSmOmaQecVQcfefOtOYfcQSnQSampgYgSY eY`QYSfQcfefOtOYfcQSnQne9fQSTQTO9SttOY`efgSYcQfSQampXT9FecOVQcOmmQSTQFSm`QeYaQcO9XTgfgOcIQ$e9FQXcOTQSnQfFO gYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQtXcfQteUOQgfcQSPYQcfX`aQeY`QOoemXefgSYQSnQOe9FQcO9XTgfaQgfQteaQ9SYcg`OTQampXT9FecgYhV FSm`gYhQSTQcOmmgYhIQNDQJsddsNlRVQ$WMd$qqQDdQi_Mki$VQsqQlDQlR$QsgtgtOdsgtRVQli_$kiN$qqV gtD_Mk$l$N$qqVQ_$dgtRsNlspikilRQDdQBilN$qqQBDdQsNRQMsdligtOksdQMOdMDq$QDBQsNRQqOgtR dsliNltQDdQDlR$dQDMiNiDNQDdQiNBDd_sliDNQiqQltiT$NQDdQ_s$QpRQ_DDRbqQiNQsNRQBDd_QDd _sNN$dQJRslqD$T$dI

_iqVQeQPFSmma^SPYO`Q9TO`gfQTefgYhQehOY9aQcXGcg`geTaQSnQ_SS`abcQgtSTampSTefgSYQAE_gtDECVQFOTOGaQ`gc9mScOcQfFefQtScf gccXOTcQSnQ`OGfQcO9XTgfgOcQAgY9mX`gYhQ9STampSTefOQeY`QtXYg9gampemQGSY`cVQ`OGOYfXTOcVQYSfOcQeY`Q9SttOT9gemQampeampOTCQeY` ampTOnOTTO`QcfS9UQTefO`QGaQ_iqQFeoOVQampTgSTQfSQeccghYtOYfQSnQeYaQTefgYhVQehTOO`QfSQampeaQfSQ_iqQnSTQeampampTegcemQeY`QTefgYh cOTog9OcQTOY`OTO`QGaQgfQnOOcQTeYhgYhQnTStQuZV[[QfSQeampampTSgtefOmaQuV[[V[[[IQ_gtDQeY`Q_iqQemcSQtegYfegYQampSmg9gOc eY`QampTS9O`XTOcQfSQe``TOccQfFOQgY`OampOY`OY9OQSnQ_iqbcQTefgYhcQeY`QTefgYhQampTS9OccOcIQiYnSTtefgSYQTOheT`gYhQ9OTfegY enngmgefgSYcQfFefQteaQOgcfQGOfPOOYQ`gTO9fSTcQSnQ_gtDQeY`QTefO`QOYfgfgOcVQeY`QGOfPOOYQOYfgfgOcQPFSQFSm`QTefgYhcQnTSt _iqQeY`QFeoOQemcSQampXGmg9maQTOampSTfO`QfSQfFOQq$gtQeYQSPYOTcFgampQgYfOTOcfQgYQ_gtDQSnQtSTOQfFeYQNVQgcQampScfO`QeYYXemma efQPPPItSS`acI9StQXY`OTQfFOQFOe`gYhQEqFeTOFSm`OTQdOmefgSYcQXQgtSTampSTefOQltSoOTYeY9OQXQgTO9fSTQeY` qFeTOFSm`OTQsnngmgefgSYQMSmg9aIE

BSTQsXcfTemgeQSYmajQsYaQampXGmg9efgSYQgYfSQsXcfTemgeQSnQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQampXTcXeYfQfSQfFOQsXcfTemgeYQBgYeY9gemQqOTog9Oc kg9OYcOQSnQ_DDRbqQenngmgefOVQ_SS`abcQiYoOcfSTcQqOTog9OQMfaQkgtgfO`QspNQZQ[[]Q]KKQsBqkQ]]KKQeY`ST _SS`abcQsYemafg9cQsXcfTemgeQMfaQkf`QspNQK=QZ[QZ]QKQsBqkQ]]KQAecQeampampmg9eGmOCIQlFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQgYfOY`O` fSQGOQampTSog`O`QSYmaQfSQEPFSmOcemOQ9mgOYfcEQPgfFgYQfFOQtOeYgYhQSnQcO9fgSYQZltQSnQfFOQgtSTampSTefgSYcQs9fQ[[ZIQpa 9SYfgYXgYhQfSQe99OccQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQnTStQPgfFgYQsXcfTemgeVQaSXQTOampTOcOYfQfSQ_DDRbqQfFefQaSXQeTOVQSTQeTO

FINAL July 3 2013

1 The original creation of the Agency foresaw the day that the toll road bonds would be repaid the tolling ended and the Foothill and Eastern roads would become part of the state freeway system It is in the public interest to see that the tolls end as soon as practicable One negative aspect to the restructuring is that the tolling period will be increased by thirteen years from 2040 to 2053

2 The draft Caltrans Cooperative Agreement includes annual payments to be made to Caltrans from 2041 to 2053 These payments increase from $141 million in 2041 to $189 million in 2053 and are made only from surplus revenues It is in the public interest to ensure that these payments are made on a timely basis in order for Caltrans to carry on its important work on behalf of the public

3 A default on the Agencyrsquos bonds could have a negative effect on the outlook of investors on the creditworthiness of California in general potentially making it more difficult and costly for other California issuers to raise funds in the capital markets

32 Activities Conducted in Evaluation

To conduct the financial evaluation MDA performed the following tasks and analyses

Reviewed the methodology and underlying assumptions of the Agencyrsquos proposed restructuring model for accuracy completeness and reasonableness MDA identified recommended revisions for completeness and updated information as applicable This review included a review of the underwritersrsquo proposed refunding financial model

Examined risks associated with proposed restructuring plan MDA examined the various elements of the Agencyrsquos proposed refunding and identifies additional factors that could have an impact on the Agencyrsquos viability and ability to meet bond covenants and its payment obligations

Reviewed the Stantec (the ldquoTampR Consultantrdquo) Traffic and Revenue (ldquoTampRrdquo) Study MDA reviewed the TampR study and held a conference call with the TampR consultant who prepared the study

Review of Agencyrsquos bond documents MDA reviewed the Agencyrsquos bond documents for covenants and terms as they relate to the proposed restructuring and ongoing obligations

Reviewed the Agencyrsquos Financial Statements and provided pro‐forma financial statements for the next ten years MDA reviewed the Agencyrsquos financial statements and developed pro‐forma financial statements for the next ten years both under current conditions and with the restructuring in place

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 4

FINAL July 3 2013

33 Disclaimer

MDA relied on publicly available data provided on the Agencyrsquos website data provided by the Agency to MDA and the financial model developed by the Agencyrsquos underwriting team led by Barclays and Goldman Sachs (the ldquoUnderwritersrdquo) MDA believes that the source data supplied is reliable but assumes no responsibility for its accuracy The statements in this report reflect the views of MDA and are based solely on the material reviewed as of the evaluation date The accuracy of the evaluation depends on the occurrence of future events while there is no assurance that they will occur as planned As of the date of this report interest rates on comparable securities have increased approximately 13 basis points since we were presented with the model on June 14th This is likely to have resulted in a decrease in net present value savings for the restructuring Thus variances between assumed and actual outcomes may occur and could be material

4 Review of Prior Work

MDA undertook a review of the information provided by the Agency as well as publicly available documents presenting the Agencyrsquos financial information The focus of MDArsquos review was the overall financial effectiveness of the Agencyrsquos restructuring plan and the projected ability of the Agency to remain a viable entity MDA reviewed the following items

Agencyrsquos adopted budgets and financial plans Agencyrsquos FY 2012 audited financial statements Agencyrsquos Resolution Authorizing Revenue Refunding Bonds adopted June 13 2013 Agencyrsquos Revenue Refunding Bond rating agency reports from Moodyrsquos Standard amp

Poorrsquos and Fitch Agencyrsquos Continuing Disclosure Filing dated April 30 2013 Agencyrsquos Schedule of Debt Outstanding as of March 31 2013 Various non‐public files which served as inputs to the underwritersrsquo financial model The Master Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The First Supplemental Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The Second Supplemental Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The Third Supplemental Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The Escrow Agreement dated as of June 1 2013 The Continuing Disclosure Certificate of the Agency The Preliminary Official Statement relating to the 2013 Bonds The Dealer Manager Agreement dated as of June 1 2013 The Purchase Contract relating to the Series 2013A Bonds the Series 2013B Bonds and

the Series 2013C Bonds

MDA also conducted discussions with Agency staff its financial team and TampR Consultant MDA held a follow‐up conference call with the Underwritersrsquo to discuss the financial model and

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 5

FINAL July 3 2013

data analysis MDA also held conference calls with Agency personnel to discuss any recent updates to financial information that might not be reflected in published materials

5 Agency Restructuring Plan

The Agencyrsquos restructuring is currently scheduled to be sold the week of July 8 The exact amount and types of bonds offered to the market will vary depending on market conditions According to the financial model provided to us on June 13 2013 the offering would consist of approximately $14 billion of tax‐exempt Senior Lien Toll Road Revenue Bonds Series 2013A (approximately $113 billion of which will be Current Interest Bonds and $270 million of which will be Capital Appreciation Bonds) $210 million of tax‐exempt Junior Lien Toll Road Refunding Revenue Bonds Series 2013B Current Interest Bonds and up to approximately $600 million of tax‐exempt Toll Road Refunding Revenue Bonds Series 2013D Forward Delivery Bonds

The amount of tax‐exempt Series 2013D Forward Delivery Bonds will be reduced and there will be a corresponding increase in the current delivery Series 2013A bonds should the Agencyrsquos tender offer for a portion of its outstanding bonds be successful The amount of Series 2013C Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds will be sufficient to affect the full defeasance of the Series 1999 bonds in July 2013 and will be refunded by the Series 2013C Bonds on October 17 2013

Restructuring Objectives The Agencyrsquos existing annual debt service obligation is $105 million in 2013 growing steadily at approximately 44 per year to a maximum level of approximately $298 million in 2040 The objective of the restructuring will be to refund and restructure most of the Agencyrsquos $24 billion in outstanding bonds On June 13 Agency staff recommended to its Board to move forward with the restructuring so long as the rate of debt service growth is 350 or below on average maximum annual debt service is reduced substantially a majority of the new bonds are callable at par after ten years and there are present value savings or the present value loss of the refinancing is not substantial Agency staff states that achieving these objectives will improve the Agencyrsquos long‐term financial stability and near‐term financial flexibility and preserve its credit ratings Please see Exhibits 1 through 8 for the debt service schedules under the existing debt structure and with the restructuring in place

Under the restructuring the Agency staff believes it will have more latitude to manage toll rates given economic conditions traffic patterns and toll rate elasticity Lower annual debt service should also eliminate the need for the Agency to commit cash from unrestricted reserves to fund an escrow defeasance fund to meet debt service coverage covenant requirements a practice the rating agencies have cited as a negative credit factor A lower annual debt service growth rate of 35 is below the average revenue growth of 455 between 2014 and 2053 projected by the TampR Consultant

Restructuring Details According to the June 12 2013 Agency staff report to the Board based upon market interest

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 6

FINAL July 3 2013

rates and assumed credit ratings the proposed structure includes the following

Positive Present Value Savings With current interest rates the net present value savings from the restructuring would be 27 (most issuers have at least a 3 threshold of net present value savings for a refunding) However Agency staff has stated market conditions may change through the date of sale and in fact there has been a significant increase in both taxable and tax‐exempt interest rates since the issuance of the staff report and the Board action damaging the economics of the transaction The Agency has stated that the refinancing will be executed if the Agency generates present value debt service savings or a minimal present value loss

Lower Debt Service Growth Rates The refinancing results in (i) an annual debt service growth rate of 35 or below versus the current 44 (ii) increased debt service coverage margins over the term of the refunding bonds (iii) reduced debt service payments between 2014 and 2040 and (iv) lower maximum annual debt service resulting in a lower debt service reserve requirement

Callable Debt A significant majority of the new debt is callable at par (no premium) in ten years Before year ten all of the debt is callable at a premium based upon a ldquomake wholerdquo call formula

Final maturity The final maturity of the bonds will be extended to 2053 (from the current final maturity date of 2040) in order to lower the annual growth rate in debt service and defer principal repayment

Senior and Subordinate Bonds Approximately $200 million of subordinate or Junior Lien bonds will be issued as part of the overall restructuring in order to lower costs and improve savings by reducing the issuance of Capital Appreciation Bonds

Toll Rate Covenant Senior debt coverage will remain at 130x but aggregate coverage on all bonds (including the junior lien) will be 115x

Credit Ratings Baa3 BBB‐ and BBB‐ on senior lien debt and Ba1 BB+ and BB on subordinate bonds from Moodyrsquos SampP and Fitch respectively

Use of Escrow Defeasance Fund The refinancing has been structured to meet the Agencyrsquos covenant requirements without reliance on the Escrow Defeasance Fund

Debt Service Reserves Debt Service Reserve sizing is based on maximum annual debt service which will be reduced significantly Excess existing bond debt service reserves will be released to pay down debt andor reduce the amount of refunding bonds

Other Features The restructuring will initiate a tender offer on the 1999 convertible capital appreciation bonds that are not currently callable and issue taxable bonds andor forward delivery bonds for any such bonds that are not purchased through the tender process

Elements of the restructuring plan merit additional examination

1 Extension of Final Maturity The currently outstanding bond structure has a final maturity of January 1 2040 However under the restructuring the final maturity will be extended to 2053 in order to achieve the

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 7

FINAL July 3 2013

Agencyrsquos goals of lowering annual debt service levels enhancing debt service coverage lowering peak debt service and reducing the debt service growth rate

Lower debt service reduced debt service growth and better coverage should produce excess revenue which the Agency plans to utilize to pay down debt or fund capital projects Because of the call features of the restructuring bonds the Agency will have the option to use excess revenue to retire debt early

MDArsquos view on the extension of the final maturity is that it is an essential part of the restructuring plan However as mentioned the public policy drawback to the extension is that it extends the tolling period of the FoothillEastern an additional thirteen years We believe that one way to mitigate the damage caused by extending the tolling period is to reduce the extended period by prepaying the debt maturing during the extended period by setting aside a significant percentage (eg 50) of the annual debt service savings from the restructuring in an escrow account to be used for calling bonds beginning with the longest maturities on the first possible call date

2 Junior (or Subordinate) Lien Debt By selling a portion (estimated to be approximately $200 million as June 14 2013) of the refunding bonds on a junior lien basis instead of expensive senior lien Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquoCABsrdquo) the Agency can increase savings Junior lien bonds also have a lower debt service coverage requirement (115x aggregate debt service) than does senior lien debt (130x coverage ratio) As of June 13 2013 the use of junior lien bonds reduces the amount of senior lien CABs needed in the refinancing to approximately $270 million and shortens the final maturity of the senior lien CABs which lowers costs and adds call flexibility

MDArsquos view is that the Junior Lien debt is helpful to the restructuring in terms of cost and flexibility compared to the alternative of issuing additional Senior Lien CABs

3 Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Forward Delivery Bonds All of the 1999 Bonds must be refunded at the same time to meet the refunding test of the Master Indenture Approximately $580 million of Convertible Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquo1999 C‐CABsrdquo) cannot be refunded on a tax‐exempt basis prior to October 17 2013 Thus the proposed restructuring plan includes the use of an Invitation to Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds in order to lock in todayrsquos interest rates

Under the Invitation to Tender the Agency will offer to purchase the 1999 C‐CABs from existing investors at a price advantageous to the Agency The tender price will be set at a level that produces savings to the Agency greater than the savings produced by the alternative financing structure which is taxable callable stepped coupon bonds combined with forward delivery bonds The Agency CFO and CEO will decide if a tender price may be accepted in consultation with the Agencyrsquos Financial Advisor (PFM)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 8

FINAL July 3 2013

If there is an insufficient amount of 1999 C‐CAB tenders the Agency has an alternative financing structure that will lock in todayrsquos interest rates The Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds may be issued now to refund the 1999 C‐CABs The taxable bonds will have a lower taxable rate initially and will be callable at par on October 17 2013 Failure to call the Taxable Stepped Coupon Bonds by January 15 2014 will result in an increase in a stepped‐up interest rate on the bonds to a significantly higher penalty rate

To lock in long‐term tax‐exempt rates and provide a funding source to call the taxable bonds on October 17 2013 the long‐term Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds will be sold simultaneously with the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds (the interest rate will be set based upon current market levels) but will be delivered on October 17 2013 The Agency assumes the risk that the Forward Delivery bonds fail to be settled and delivered on October 17 2013 but the Agency considers the risk to be somewhat remote

In the unlikely event the Forward Delivery Bonds fail to close the Agency has the option between October 17 2013 and January 15 2014 of refunding the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds by issuing additional tax‐exempt or taxable bonds at the then current interest rates If the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds are not called and retired on October 17 2013 by the Forward Delivery Bonds or by other refunding Bonds before January 15 2014 the interest rate on these bonds increases or steps up to the higher penalty rate

MDArsquos view is that the tender structure is a low risk practical means of lowering the Agencyrsquos cost to call the C‐CABS If sufficient tender offers are not received issuing the taxable and Forward Delivery Bonds is a reasonable alternative

4 Use of Callable CABs The restructuring plan includes the use of $270 million of CABs an expensive and controversial type of security that compounds interest and defers interest payments to investors

While CABs must be used with great discretion there is a valuable use for them in certain very specific instances Because of the toll roadrsquos revenue structure and the Agencyrsquos familiarity with the financing structure from previous transactions MDArsquos view is that they are a necessary and appropriate element of this restructuring

MDA did not find any serious flaws with the Agencyrsquos restructuring plan that would require a delay in the proposed timing for the bonds sale currently scheduled for the week of July 8 MDA does recommend however the following revisions to the proposed restructuring plan be considered

1 Under the revised Cooperative Agreement payments to Caltrans will be made from surplus revenues available after Current Expenses and debt payments are made Based

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 9

FINAL July 3 2013

on the pro forma model sufficient surplus revenues are anticipated to make these payments The primary payment risk to Caltrans is that Current Expenses are far greater than anticipated or new debt is issued for the Tesoro Extension or Foothill South Extension without having offsetting revenues Thus because of the potential negative impact on the Agency to meet its future payment obligations to Caltrans Caltrans should modify the Cooperative Agreement in a manner to protect itself and bondholders from dilution of existing revenues for the extension projects For example one way to do this would be to require that none of the bond proceeds or cash flow savings should be used to fund the Foothill South or Tesoro Extension projects without Caltrans being presented with and approving a feasibility and financial plan for these projects

2 To offset the impact on the public of extending toll collection on the project an additional thirteen years a portion of the annual cash flow savings from the restructuring should be devoted to calling the bonds starting with the longest maturities first in order to shorten the time the tolls are in effect According to our calculations if all surplus revenues resulting from the restructuring from 2014 to 2039 were used to call bonds maturing from 2041 to 2053 the tolls could be ended in 2040 as is currently the case Alternatively recognizing the Agencyrsquos need for capital improvement funding setting aside 50 of the cash flow savings from the restructuring would enable the tolling to end in 2046 cutting seven years from the anticipated tolling end in 2053 ameliorating the major public policy drawback of the Agencyrsquos restructuring

6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study

In the past the Agencyrsquos previous TampR studies by Wilbur Smith Associates have significantly over‐estimated revenues lending to an over‐issuance of debt The Agency retained Stantec Consulting Services Inc to provide a traffic and revenue study to forecast future traffic and revenue generating capability of the Project through 2053 The TampR study also serves as the basis for the rating agencies to provide ratings for the refunding bonds Stantecrsquos Base Case toll schedule projects an average toll revenue growth rate of 455 between 2014 and 2053 with rates of 4 to 9 between now and 2024 based upon projected traffic volume increases and toll rate increases of 25 to 3 on average Despite the TampR consultantrsquos projection of 455 revenue growth the Agency restructured the debt service growth rate at 35 to be conservative

The TampR Consultant assumed the SR 91SR 241 connector is built and provides increased traffic demand on the toll road However while it is anticipated that there will be a fee to enter the 91241 connector no revenue generated from entrance fees to the 91241 connector was included in the forecast Improvements to the I‐5 were included as part of the future year networks The TampR Study assumes the Tesoro Extension and Foothill South projects are not built during the study period

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 10

FINAL July 3 2013

As part of our financial evaluation MDA reviewed the TampR study and developed a list of questions which served as the basis for a call with the TampR consultant on June 18th

Our questions and the TampR consultantrsquos answers are summarized below

Questions Answers

1) The TampR study assumes driving habits will stay essentially the same over the study period Yet one of the observable trends in transportation is that people are driving less to work because of telecommuting ridesharing moving to population centers where public transit is available etc Should the TampR study have addressed this at least in sensitivity

1) This factor is not applicable to Orange County as residents are very dependent on their cars for transportation and options for public transit are not good

2) The elasticity of demand is a major factor in toll revenue projections Two related questions a In the TampR report decreases in demand

are explained primarily by the impact of the recession Do you fell elasticity of demand was given adequate consideration

b The TampR report assumes the impact of elasticity is linear Could you explain that as it seems counterintuitive

2a) Yes this factor is monitored carefully and ten yearsrsquo worth of data is available to analyze

2b) TampR report provides adequate discussion of elasticity of demand

3) Could you explain why a traffic increase is assumed related to the construction of the SR 241SR 91 but no associated revenue

3) For the 91241 connector the anticipated $2 fee to use the connector is not included but increased traffic on the toll road generated from the connector is included in the revenue projections

4) The TampR study does not address whether the driverrsquos value of travel time savings has changed because of the recession Could you address that

4) The value of time saving in the TampR model is based on the 2012 recessionary conditions and thus no further change is needed

5) The Sensitivity Analysis section is fairly short Was any thought given to the impact of competing facilities after the Caltrans non‐compete agreement ends in 2020 Or the elasticity of demand Or testing for changes in the value of travel time savings

5) The 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization scenarios bracket the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities are not needed

6) Was a peer review done or is one contemplated

6) No peer review is planned

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 11

FINAL July 3 2013

The TampR consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case projection and an All‐Electric tolling (AET) The AET projection assumes all electronic tolling will be in place in the summer of 2014 Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for the Base Case and AET revenue projections

1 In addition the TampR consultant estimated the gross annual revenue impact for two additional scenarios (The TampR consultant did not project annual revenues for these two additional scenarios) A 2020 recession which effectively forecasted no economic growth in the next eight years The result was a 27 reduction in revenues for FY 2020

2 A Revenue Maximization projection in which rates at all mainline toll plazas were increased to the point of maximum revenue generation The impact of this scenario was an increase in revenues of 140 in 2035

When asked why more sensitivities were not run the TampR consultant responded that the two additional scenarios (the 2020 recession and the Revenue Maximization) bracketed the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities were not necessary However MDA believes that it is important to understand the impact on the financial model to changes in major variables Therefore we undertook to run our own set of sensitivities which are discussed below

In our view while we do not believe the TampR study is fatally flawed it does suffer from several deficiencies First an insufficient number of sensitivities are considered such as testing such variables as elasticity of demand change in the value of travel savings and the impact of competing facilities This is particularly important as both Moodyrsquos and Fitch note that the projectrsquos toll rates are high relative to its peers Additionally the data provided on the TampR studyrsquos two sensitivities for the 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization is only for one year leaving unexplained what happens before and after that year

Sensitivity Analyses MDA conducted a number of sensitivity analyses to test the impact of various variables in the restructuring These analyses help to determine whether 1) the restructuring is necessary and 2) how a change in the revenue variables might affect the Agencyrsquos financial situation

1 Need for Restructuring

To help determine the need for the restructuring MDA ran debt service coverages under two debt service coverage scenarios

a Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service as it currently exists (please see Exhibit 3 for more details) b Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service after the restructuring (please see Exhibit 1 for more details) c Using no revenue growth with existing debt service and (please see Exhibit 4 for more details) d Using no revenue growth with restructured debt service (please see Exhibit 5 for more details)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 12

FINAL July 3 2013

The results of these scenarios are as follows

Base Case Revenues with Base Case Revenues with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

104x (2016) 136x (2015)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

132x (2039) 346x (2053)

Average Senior Lien Coverage 121x 212x Years Below 13x Coverage 25 0 Years Below 10x Coverage 0 0

No Revenue Growth with No Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

032x (2040) 049x (2053)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage 101x (2014) 138x (2014) Average Senior Lien Coverage 059x 078x Years Below 13x Coverage 26 35 Years Below 10x Coverage 24 30

The larger number of years below the coverage requirement is due to the fact that the final maturity of the bonds is extended with the restructured debt service

Clearly without the restructuring the Agency cannot meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases coverages would soon fall below 100x debt service obligations

Variable Sensitivities To test the sensitivity of a number of important variables on the Agencyrsquos post‐restructuring debt profile MDA ran the following sensitivities

1 amp 2 The TampR Consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case and an All‐Electronic Tolling (ldquoAETrdquo) scenario The only difference between the two projections is a one‐time revenue loss of $45 million in 2014 due to discounts provided to drivers for using electronic tolling The TampR Consultant assumes that no further impact on revenues occurs thereafter Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for additional detail

3 The TampR Consultant also provides the general effect of a 2020 recession by assuming revenues decline from the Base Case to $127270000 in 2020 For the purposes of running our sensitivity we assumed this decrease occurs on a pro rata basis through 2020 and then revenue grows annually thereafter by the same percentage growth as shown in the Base Case Please see Exhibit 6 for additional detail

4 The TampR Consultant observes that based on historical results the elasticity of

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 13

FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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mRunXvXRYvXYUhXXhhZunXb[X]SSn[`hXXYuhvSRhXhuRXmulXXYmxX]^]Xh^_XYYnXXvhXYssX XYvuhXYRu]SSn[`hXmZRRuYvXSaXYXSYhXSsXvbuXRu`YvXuXsZvZRuXmRunXvXRXhcXSsXuYvXvXuhlXmRunXvmS]]Xv]uYvhlXSRXnubvXSRXnubvV XcuXhumZRXvXuhlXYYnXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnXRuhuYRmbaZb XmYvXSYhXaZb XhbunXb[X]SSn[`hX]^]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYh^_X]Y[XXYm`ZnuX]SSn[`hmZRRuYvXSaXYXSYhXSsXvbuXRu`YvXuXsZvZRuXmRunXvXRXhcXSsXuYvXvXuhlXmRunXvXmS]]Xv]uYvhlSRXnubvXSRXnubvV XcuXhumZRXvXuhxX]SSn[`hXnusXYuhXmRunXvXRXhcXYhXvbuXRXhcXvbYvXYYuYvXv[X]Y[XYSvX]uuvXXvhXmSYvRYmvZY lXsXYYYmXY XSb XUYvXSYhXYhXvbu[XmS]uXnZuXYYnXYY[uhvX]YvunXsXYYYmXY X`ShhXXYXvbuXuuYvXSsXnusYZ`vxXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXnSXYSvXYnnRuhhXYY[SvbuRXRXhclXXYm`ZnXYUXbZvXYSvX X]XvunXvSX XdZXnXv[XRXhclX]YRcuvXY`ZuXRXhclXSRXaRXmuS`YvX Xv[xXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnX]SSn[`hXSaXYXSYhXXYm`ZnunXXYX]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYhXYRuYSvXhvYvu]uYvhXSsXmZRRuYvXSRXbXhvSRXmY XsYmvxXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnX]SSn[`haZb XmYvXSYhXnSXYSvXmSYhvXvZvuXSRXaRSXnuXXYuhv]uYvXSRXsXYYYmXY XYnXmulXYYn

mRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnX]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYhXYRuXYSvXYYnXnSXYSvXaRSXnuRumS]]uYnYvXSYhXvSXaZRmbYhulXhu` lXSRXbS`nXaYRvXmZ`YRXhumZRXvXuhxXYuXvbuRXmRunXvRYvXYUhXYSRX]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYhXmS]]uYvXSYXvbuXhZXvYbX Xv[XSsXYYXXYuhv]uYvXsSRYY[XaYRvXmZ`YRXXYuhvSRxX]SSn[`hXXhhZuhXXvhXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnXaZb XhbuhX]SSn[`haZb XmYvXSYhXeXvbXvbuXufaumvYvXSYXYYnXZYnuRhvYYnXYUXvbYvXuYmbXXYuhvSRXeX` X]YcuXvhXSeYXhvZn[XYYnXuY`ZYvXSYXSsXuYmbXhumZRXv[XvbYvXXhXZYnuRXmSYhXnuRYvXSYXsSRaZRmbYhulXbS`nXYUlXSRXhY`ux

skkQiNBDd_sliDNQgtDNlsiN$QR$d$iNQiqQMdDl$gtl$QpRQksJVQiNgtkOiNltQpOlQNDlQki_il$QlDV gtDMRdiltRlQksJVQsNQNDN$QDBQqOgtRQiNBDd_sliDNQ_sRQp$QgtDMi$QDdQDlR$dJiq$ d$MdDOgt$VQd$MsgtPslt$VQBOdlR$dQldsNq_ill$VQldsNqB$dd$VQiqq$_iNsl$V d$iqldipOl$QDdQd$qDkVQDdQqlDd$QBDdQqOpq$VO$NlQOq$QBDdQsNRQqOgtRQMOdMDq$VQiN JRDk$QDdQiNQMsdlVQiNQsNRQBDd_QDdQ_sNN$dQDdQpRQsNRQ_$sNqQJRslqD$T$dVQpRQsNRQM$dqDN JilRDOlQ_DDRbqQMdiDdQJdill$NQgtDNq$NlIQsmmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQSGfegYO`QGaQ_DDRbq nTStQcSXT9OcQGOmgOoO`QGaQgfQfSQGOQe99XTefOQeY`QTOmgeGmOIQpO9eXcOQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQFXteYQSTQtO9FeYg9emQOTTSTQec POmmQecQSfFOTQne9fSTcVQFSPOoOTVQemmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQampTSog`O`QEsqQiqEQPgfFSXfQPeTTeYfaQSnQeYaQUgY`I _DDRbqQe`SampfcQemmQYO9OcceTaQtOecXTOcQcSQfFefQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQgfQXcOcQgYQeccghYgYhQeQ9TO`gfQTefgYhQgcQSnQcXnng9gOYf QXemgfaQeY`QnTStQcSXT9OcQ_SS`abcQ9SYcg`OTcQfSQGOQTOmgeGmOVQgY9mX`gYhVQPFOYQeampampTSampTgefOVQgY`OampOY`OYfQfFgT`^ampeTfa cSXT9OcIQRSPOoOTVQ_DDRbqQgcQYSfQeYQeX`gfSTQeY`Q9eYYSfQgYQOoOTaQgYcfeY9OQgY`OampOY`OYfmaQoOTgnaQSTQoemg`efO gYnSTtefgSYQTO9OgoO`QgYQfFOQTefgYhQampTS9OccIQOY`OTQYSQ9gT9XtcfeY9OcQcFemmQ_DDRbqQFeoOQeYaQmgeGgmgfaQfSQeYa ampOTcSYQSTQOYfgfaQnSTQAeCQeYaQmSccQSTQ`etehOQgYQPFSmOQSTQgYQampeTfQ9eXcO`QGaVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStVQSTQTOmefgYhQfSVQeYaQOTTST AYOhmghOYfQSTQSfFOTPgcOCQSTQSfFOTQ9gT9XtcfeY9OQSTQ9SYfgYhOY9aQPgfFgYQSTQSXfcg`OQfFOQ9SYfTSmQSnQ_DDRbqQSTQeYaQSn gfcQ`gTO9fSTcVQSnng9OTcVQOtampmSaOOcQSTQehOYfcQgYQ9SYYO9fgSYQPgfFQfFOQampTS9XTOtOYfVQ9SmmO9fgSYVQ9StampgmefgSYVQeYemacgcV gYfOTampTOfefgSYVQ9SttXYg9efgSYVQampXGmg9efgSYQSTQ`OmgoOTaQSnQeYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYVQSTQAGCQeYaQ`gTO9fVQgY`gTO9fVQcampO9gemV 9SYcOQXOYfgemVQ9StampOYcefSTaQSTQgY9g`OYfemQ`etehOcQPFefcSOoOTQAgY9mX`gYhQPgfFSXfQmgtgfefgSYVQmScfQampTSngfcCVQOoOYQgn _DDRbqQgcQe`ogcO`QgYQe`oeY9OQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQcX9FQ`etehOcVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStQfFOQXcOQSnQSTQgYeGgmgfaQfSQXcOV eYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYIQlFOQTefgYhcVQngYeY9gemQTOampSTfgYhQeYemacgcVQampTSHO9fgSYcVQeY`QSfFOTQSGcOToefgSYcVQgnQeYaV 9SYcfgfXfgYhQampeTfQSnQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQeTOVQeY`QtXcfQGOQ9SYcfTXO`QcSmOmaQecVQcfefOtOYfcQSnQSampgYgSY eY`QYSfQcfefOtOYfcQSnQne9fQSTQTO9SttOY`efgSYcQfSQampXT9FecOVQcOmmQSTQFSm`QeYaQcO9XTgfgOcIQ$e9FQXcOTQSnQfFO gYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQtXcfQteUOQgfcQSPYQcfX`aQeY`QOoemXefgSYQSnQOe9FQcO9XTgfaQgfQteaQ9SYcg`OTQampXT9FecgYhV FSm`gYhQSTQcOmmgYhIQNDQJsddsNlRVQ$WMd$qqQDdQi_Mki$VQsqQlDQlR$QsgtgtOdsgtRVQli_$kiN$qqV gtD_Mk$l$N$qqVQ_$dgtRsNlspikilRQDdQBilN$qqQBDdQsNRQMsdligtOksdQMOdMDq$QDBQsNRQqOgtR dsliNltQDdQDlR$dQDMiNiDNQDdQiNBDd_sliDNQiqQltiT$NQDdQ_s$QpRQ_DDRbqQiNQsNRQBDd_QDd _sNN$dQJRslqD$T$dI

_iqVQeQPFSmma^SPYO`Q9TO`gfQTefgYhQehOY9aQcXGcg`geTaQSnQ_SS`abcQgtSTampSTefgSYQAE_gtDECVQFOTOGaQ`gc9mScOcQfFefQtScf gccXOTcQSnQ`OGfQcO9XTgfgOcQAgY9mX`gYhQ9STampSTefOQeY`QtXYg9gampemQGSY`cVQ`OGOYfXTOcVQYSfOcQeY`Q9SttOT9gemQampeampOTCQeY` ampTOnOTTO`QcfS9UQTefO`QGaQ_iqQFeoOVQampTgSTQfSQeccghYtOYfQSnQeYaQTefgYhVQehTOO`QfSQampeaQfSQ_iqQnSTQeampampTegcemQeY`QTefgYh cOTog9OcQTOY`OTO`QGaQgfQnOOcQTeYhgYhQnTStQuZV[[QfSQeampampTSgtefOmaQuV[[V[[[IQ_gtDQeY`Q_iqQemcSQtegYfegYQampSmg9gOc eY`QampTS9O`XTOcQfSQe``TOccQfFOQgY`OampOY`OY9OQSnQ_iqbcQTefgYhcQeY`QTefgYhQampTS9OccOcIQiYnSTtefgSYQTOheT`gYhQ9OTfegY enngmgefgSYcQfFefQteaQOgcfQGOfPOOYQ`gTO9fSTcQSnQ_gtDQeY`QTefO`QOYfgfgOcVQeY`QGOfPOOYQOYfgfgOcQPFSQFSm`QTefgYhcQnTSt _iqQeY`QFeoOQemcSQampXGmg9maQTOampSTfO`QfSQfFOQq$gtQeYQSPYOTcFgampQgYfOTOcfQgYQ_gtDQSnQtSTOQfFeYQNVQgcQampScfO`QeYYXemma efQPPPItSS`acI9StQXY`OTQfFOQFOe`gYhQEqFeTOFSm`OTQdOmefgSYcQXQgtSTampSTefOQltSoOTYeY9OQXQgTO9fSTQeY` qFeTOFSm`OTQsnngmgefgSYQMSmg9aIE

BSTQsXcfTemgeQSYmajQsYaQampXGmg9efgSYQgYfSQsXcfTemgeQSnQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQampXTcXeYfQfSQfFOQsXcfTemgeYQBgYeY9gemQqOTog9Oc kg9OYcOQSnQ_DDRbqQenngmgefOVQ_SS`abcQiYoOcfSTcQqOTog9OQMfaQkgtgfO`QspNQZQ[[]Q]KKQsBqkQ]]KKQeY`ST _SS`abcQsYemafg9cQsXcfTemgeQMfaQkf`QspNQK=QZ[QZ]QKQsBqkQ]]KQAecQeampampmg9eGmOCIQlFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQgYfOY`O` fSQGOQampTSog`O`QSYmaQfSQEPFSmOcemOQ9mgOYfcEQPgfFgYQfFOQtOeYgYhQSnQcO9fgSYQZltQSnQfFOQgtSTampSTefgSYcQs9fQ[[ZIQpa 9SYfgYXgYhQfSQe99OccQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQnTStQPgfFgYQsXcfTemgeVQaSXQTOampTOcOYfQfSQ_DDRbqQfFefQaSXQeTOVQSTQeTO

FINAL July 3 2013

33 Disclaimer

MDA relied on publicly available data provided on the Agencyrsquos website data provided by the Agency to MDA and the financial model developed by the Agencyrsquos underwriting team led by Barclays and Goldman Sachs (the ldquoUnderwritersrdquo) MDA believes that the source data supplied is reliable but assumes no responsibility for its accuracy The statements in this report reflect the views of MDA and are based solely on the material reviewed as of the evaluation date The accuracy of the evaluation depends on the occurrence of future events while there is no assurance that they will occur as planned As of the date of this report interest rates on comparable securities have increased approximately 13 basis points since we were presented with the model on June 14th This is likely to have resulted in a decrease in net present value savings for the restructuring Thus variances between assumed and actual outcomes may occur and could be material

4 Review of Prior Work

MDA undertook a review of the information provided by the Agency as well as publicly available documents presenting the Agencyrsquos financial information The focus of MDArsquos review was the overall financial effectiveness of the Agencyrsquos restructuring plan and the projected ability of the Agency to remain a viable entity MDA reviewed the following items

Agencyrsquos adopted budgets and financial plans Agencyrsquos FY 2012 audited financial statements Agencyrsquos Resolution Authorizing Revenue Refunding Bonds adopted June 13 2013 Agencyrsquos Revenue Refunding Bond rating agency reports from Moodyrsquos Standard amp

Poorrsquos and Fitch Agencyrsquos Continuing Disclosure Filing dated April 30 2013 Agencyrsquos Schedule of Debt Outstanding as of March 31 2013 Various non‐public files which served as inputs to the underwritersrsquo financial model The Master Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The First Supplemental Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The Second Supplemental Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The Third Supplemental Indenture of Trust dated as of June 1 2013 The Escrow Agreement dated as of June 1 2013 The Continuing Disclosure Certificate of the Agency The Preliminary Official Statement relating to the 2013 Bonds The Dealer Manager Agreement dated as of June 1 2013 The Purchase Contract relating to the Series 2013A Bonds the Series 2013B Bonds and

the Series 2013C Bonds

MDA also conducted discussions with Agency staff its financial team and TampR Consultant MDA held a follow‐up conference call with the Underwritersrsquo to discuss the financial model and

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 5

FINAL July 3 2013

data analysis MDA also held conference calls with Agency personnel to discuss any recent updates to financial information that might not be reflected in published materials

5 Agency Restructuring Plan

The Agencyrsquos restructuring is currently scheduled to be sold the week of July 8 The exact amount and types of bonds offered to the market will vary depending on market conditions According to the financial model provided to us on June 13 2013 the offering would consist of approximately $14 billion of tax‐exempt Senior Lien Toll Road Revenue Bonds Series 2013A (approximately $113 billion of which will be Current Interest Bonds and $270 million of which will be Capital Appreciation Bonds) $210 million of tax‐exempt Junior Lien Toll Road Refunding Revenue Bonds Series 2013B Current Interest Bonds and up to approximately $600 million of tax‐exempt Toll Road Refunding Revenue Bonds Series 2013D Forward Delivery Bonds

The amount of tax‐exempt Series 2013D Forward Delivery Bonds will be reduced and there will be a corresponding increase in the current delivery Series 2013A bonds should the Agencyrsquos tender offer for a portion of its outstanding bonds be successful The amount of Series 2013C Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds will be sufficient to affect the full defeasance of the Series 1999 bonds in July 2013 and will be refunded by the Series 2013C Bonds on October 17 2013

Restructuring Objectives The Agencyrsquos existing annual debt service obligation is $105 million in 2013 growing steadily at approximately 44 per year to a maximum level of approximately $298 million in 2040 The objective of the restructuring will be to refund and restructure most of the Agencyrsquos $24 billion in outstanding bonds On June 13 Agency staff recommended to its Board to move forward with the restructuring so long as the rate of debt service growth is 350 or below on average maximum annual debt service is reduced substantially a majority of the new bonds are callable at par after ten years and there are present value savings or the present value loss of the refinancing is not substantial Agency staff states that achieving these objectives will improve the Agencyrsquos long‐term financial stability and near‐term financial flexibility and preserve its credit ratings Please see Exhibits 1 through 8 for the debt service schedules under the existing debt structure and with the restructuring in place

Under the restructuring the Agency staff believes it will have more latitude to manage toll rates given economic conditions traffic patterns and toll rate elasticity Lower annual debt service should also eliminate the need for the Agency to commit cash from unrestricted reserves to fund an escrow defeasance fund to meet debt service coverage covenant requirements a practice the rating agencies have cited as a negative credit factor A lower annual debt service growth rate of 35 is below the average revenue growth of 455 between 2014 and 2053 projected by the TampR Consultant

Restructuring Details According to the June 12 2013 Agency staff report to the Board based upon market interest

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 6

FINAL July 3 2013

rates and assumed credit ratings the proposed structure includes the following

Positive Present Value Savings With current interest rates the net present value savings from the restructuring would be 27 (most issuers have at least a 3 threshold of net present value savings for a refunding) However Agency staff has stated market conditions may change through the date of sale and in fact there has been a significant increase in both taxable and tax‐exempt interest rates since the issuance of the staff report and the Board action damaging the economics of the transaction The Agency has stated that the refinancing will be executed if the Agency generates present value debt service savings or a minimal present value loss

Lower Debt Service Growth Rates The refinancing results in (i) an annual debt service growth rate of 35 or below versus the current 44 (ii) increased debt service coverage margins over the term of the refunding bonds (iii) reduced debt service payments between 2014 and 2040 and (iv) lower maximum annual debt service resulting in a lower debt service reserve requirement

Callable Debt A significant majority of the new debt is callable at par (no premium) in ten years Before year ten all of the debt is callable at a premium based upon a ldquomake wholerdquo call formula

Final maturity The final maturity of the bonds will be extended to 2053 (from the current final maturity date of 2040) in order to lower the annual growth rate in debt service and defer principal repayment

Senior and Subordinate Bonds Approximately $200 million of subordinate or Junior Lien bonds will be issued as part of the overall restructuring in order to lower costs and improve savings by reducing the issuance of Capital Appreciation Bonds

Toll Rate Covenant Senior debt coverage will remain at 130x but aggregate coverage on all bonds (including the junior lien) will be 115x

Credit Ratings Baa3 BBB‐ and BBB‐ on senior lien debt and Ba1 BB+ and BB on subordinate bonds from Moodyrsquos SampP and Fitch respectively

Use of Escrow Defeasance Fund The refinancing has been structured to meet the Agencyrsquos covenant requirements without reliance on the Escrow Defeasance Fund

Debt Service Reserves Debt Service Reserve sizing is based on maximum annual debt service which will be reduced significantly Excess existing bond debt service reserves will be released to pay down debt andor reduce the amount of refunding bonds

Other Features The restructuring will initiate a tender offer on the 1999 convertible capital appreciation bonds that are not currently callable and issue taxable bonds andor forward delivery bonds for any such bonds that are not purchased through the tender process

Elements of the restructuring plan merit additional examination

1 Extension of Final Maturity The currently outstanding bond structure has a final maturity of January 1 2040 However under the restructuring the final maturity will be extended to 2053 in order to achieve the

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 7

FINAL July 3 2013

Agencyrsquos goals of lowering annual debt service levels enhancing debt service coverage lowering peak debt service and reducing the debt service growth rate

Lower debt service reduced debt service growth and better coverage should produce excess revenue which the Agency plans to utilize to pay down debt or fund capital projects Because of the call features of the restructuring bonds the Agency will have the option to use excess revenue to retire debt early

MDArsquos view on the extension of the final maturity is that it is an essential part of the restructuring plan However as mentioned the public policy drawback to the extension is that it extends the tolling period of the FoothillEastern an additional thirteen years We believe that one way to mitigate the damage caused by extending the tolling period is to reduce the extended period by prepaying the debt maturing during the extended period by setting aside a significant percentage (eg 50) of the annual debt service savings from the restructuring in an escrow account to be used for calling bonds beginning with the longest maturities on the first possible call date

2 Junior (or Subordinate) Lien Debt By selling a portion (estimated to be approximately $200 million as June 14 2013) of the refunding bonds on a junior lien basis instead of expensive senior lien Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquoCABsrdquo) the Agency can increase savings Junior lien bonds also have a lower debt service coverage requirement (115x aggregate debt service) than does senior lien debt (130x coverage ratio) As of June 13 2013 the use of junior lien bonds reduces the amount of senior lien CABs needed in the refinancing to approximately $270 million and shortens the final maturity of the senior lien CABs which lowers costs and adds call flexibility

MDArsquos view is that the Junior Lien debt is helpful to the restructuring in terms of cost and flexibility compared to the alternative of issuing additional Senior Lien CABs

3 Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Forward Delivery Bonds All of the 1999 Bonds must be refunded at the same time to meet the refunding test of the Master Indenture Approximately $580 million of Convertible Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquo1999 C‐CABsrdquo) cannot be refunded on a tax‐exempt basis prior to October 17 2013 Thus the proposed restructuring plan includes the use of an Invitation to Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds in order to lock in todayrsquos interest rates

Under the Invitation to Tender the Agency will offer to purchase the 1999 C‐CABs from existing investors at a price advantageous to the Agency The tender price will be set at a level that produces savings to the Agency greater than the savings produced by the alternative financing structure which is taxable callable stepped coupon bonds combined with forward delivery bonds The Agency CFO and CEO will decide if a tender price may be accepted in consultation with the Agencyrsquos Financial Advisor (PFM)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 8

FINAL July 3 2013

If there is an insufficient amount of 1999 C‐CAB tenders the Agency has an alternative financing structure that will lock in todayrsquos interest rates The Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds may be issued now to refund the 1999 C‐CABs The taxable bonds will have a lower taxable rate initially and will be callable at par on October 17 2013 Failure to call the Taxable Stepped Coupon Bonds by January 15 2014 will result in an increase in a stepped‐up interest rate on the bonds to a significantly higher penalty rate

To lock in long‐term tax‐exempt rates and provide a funding source to call the taxable bonds on October 17 2013 the long‐term Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds will be sold simultaneously with the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds (the interest rate will be set based upon current market levels) but will be delivered on October 17 2013 The Agency assumes the risk that the Forward Delivery bonds fail to be settled and delivered on October 17 2013 but the Agency considers the risk to be somewhat remote

In the unlikely event the Forward Delivery Bonds fail to close the Agency has the option between October 17 2013 and January 15 2014 of refunding the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds by issuing additional tax‐exempt or taxable bonds at the then current interest rates If the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds are not called and retired on October 17 2013 by the Forward Delivery Bonds or by other refunding Bonds before January 15 2014 the interest rate on these bonds increases or steps up to the higher penalty rate

MDArsquos view is that the tender structure is a low risk practical means of lowering the Agencyrsquos cost to call the C‐CABS If sufficient tender offers are not received issuing the taxable and Forward Delivery Bonds is a reasonable alternative

4 Use of Callable CABs The restructuring plan includes the use of $270 million of CABs an expensive and controversial type of security that compounds interest and defers interest payments to investors

While CABs must be used with great discretion there is a valuable use for them in certain very specific instances Because of the toll roadrsquos revenue structure and the Agencyrsquos familiarity with the financing structure from previous transactions MDArsquos view is that they are a necessary and appropriate element of this restructuring

MDA did not find any serious flaws with the Agencyrsquos restructuring plan that would require a delay in the proposed timing for the bonds sale currently scheduled for the week of July 8 MDA does recommend however the following revisions to the proposed restructuring plan be considered

1 Under the revised Cooperative Agreement payments to Caltrans will be made from surplus revenues available after Current Expenses and debt payments are made Based

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 9

FINAL July 3 2013

on the pro forma model sufficient surplus revenues are anticipated to make these payments The primary payment risk to Caltrans is that Current Expenses are far greater than anticipated or new debt is issued for the Tesoro Extension or Foothill South Extension without having offsetting revenues Thus because of the potential negative impact on the Agency to meet its future payment obligations to Caltrans Caltrans should modify the Cooperative Agreement in a manner to protect itself and bondholders from dilution of existing revenues for the extension projects For example one way to do this would be to require that none of the bond proceeds or cash flow savings should be used to fund the Foothill South or Tesoro Extension projects without Caltrans being presented with and approving a feasibility and financial plan for these projects

2 To offset the impact on the public of extending toll collection on the project an additional thirteen years a portion of the annual cash flow savings from the restructuring should be devoted to calling the bonds starting with the longest maturities first in order to shorten the time the tolls are in effect According to our calculations if all surplus revenues resulting from the restructuring from 2014 to 2039 were used to call bonds maturing from 2041 to 2053 the tolls could be ended in 2040 as is currently the case Alternatively recognizing the Agencyrsquos need for capital improvement funding setting aside 50 of the cash flow savings from the restructuring would enable the tolling to end in 2046 cutting seven years from the anticipated tolling end in 2053 ameliorating the major public policy drawback of the Agencyrsquos restructuring

6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study

In the past the Agencyrsquos previous TampR studies by Wilbur Smith Associates have significantly over‐estimated revenues lending to an over‐issuance of debt The Agency retained Stantec Consulting Services Inc to provide a traffic and revenue study to forecast future traffic and revenue generating capability of the Project through 2053 The TampR study also serves as the basis for the rating agencies to provide ratings for the refunding bonds Stantecrsquos Base Case toll schedule projects an average toll revenue growth rate of 455 between 2014 and 2053 with rates of 4 to 9 between now and 2024 based upon projected traffic volume increases and toll rate increases of 25 to 3 on average Despite the TampR consultantrsquos projection of 455 revenue growth the Agency restructured the debt service growth rate at 35 to be conservative

The TampR Consultant assumed the SR 91SR 241 connector is built and provides increased traffic demand on the toll road However while it is anticipated that there will be a fee to enter the 91241 connector no revenue generated from entrance fees to the 91241 connector was included in the forecast Improvements to the I‐5 were included as part of the future year networks The TampR Study assumes the Tesoro Extension and Foothill South projects are not built during the study period

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 10

FINAL July 3 2013

As part of our financial evaluation MDA reviewed the TampR study and developed a list of questions which served as the basis for a call with the TampR consultant on June 18th

Our questions and the TampR consultantrsquos answers are summarized below

Questions Answers

1) The TampR study assumes driving habits will stay essentially the same over the study period Yet one of the observable trends in transportation is that people are driving less to work because of telecommuting ridesharing moving to population centers where public transit is available etc Should the TampR study have addressed this at least in sensitivity

1) This factor is not applicable to Orange County as residents are very dependent on their cars for transportation and options for public transit are not good

2) The elasticity of demand is a major factor in toll revenue projections Two related questions a In the TampR report decreases in demand

are explained primarily by the impact of the recession Do you fell elasticity of demand was given adequate consideration

b The TampR report assumes the impact of elasticity is linear Could you explain that as it seems counterintuitive

2a) Yes this factor is monitored carefully and ten yearsrsquo worth of data is available to analyze

2b) TampR report provides adequate discussion of elasticity of demand

3) Could you explain why a traffic increase is assumed related to the construction of the SR 241SR 91 but no associated revenue

3) For the 91241 connector the anticipated $2 fee to use the connector is not included but increased traffic on the toll road generated from the connector is included in the revenue projections

4) The TampR study does not address whether the driverrsquos value of travel time savings has changed because of the recession Could you address that

4) The value of time saving in the TampR model is based on the 2012 recessionary conditions and thus no further change is needed

5) The Sensitivity Analysis section is fairly short Was any thought given to the impact of competing facilities after the Caltrans non‐compete agreement ends in 2020 Or the elasticity of demand Or testing for changes in the value of travel time savings

5) The 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization scenarios bracket the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities are not needed

6) Was a peer review done or is one contemplated

6) No peer review is planned

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 11

FINAL July 3 2013

The TampR consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case projection and an All‐Electric tolling (AET) The AET projection assumes all electronic tolling will be in place in the summer of 2014 Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for the Base Case and AET revenue projections

1 In addition the TampR consultant estimated the gross annual revenue impact for two additional scenarios (The TampR consultant did not project annual revenues for these two additional scenarios) A 2020 recession which effectively forecasted no economic growth in the next eight years The result was a 27 reduction in revenues for FY 2020

2 A Revenue Maximization projection in which rates at all mainline toll plazas were increased to the point of maximum revenue generation The impact of this scenario was an increase in revenues of 140 in 2035

When asked why more sensitivities were not run the TampR consultant responded that the two additional scenarios (the 2020 recession and the Revenue Maximization) bracketed the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities were not necessary However MDA believes that it is important to understand the impact on the financial model to changes in major variables Therefore we undertook to run our own set of sensitivities which are discussed below

In our view while we do not believe the TampR study is fatally flawed it does suffer from several deficiencies First an insufficient number of sensitivities are considered such as testing such variables as elasticity of demand change in the value of travel savings and the impact of competing facilities This is particularly important as both Moodyrsquos and Fitch note that the projectrsquos toll rates are high relative to its peers Additionally the data provided on the TampR studyrsquos two sensitivities for the 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization is only for one year leaving unexplained what happens before and after that year

Sensitivity Analyses MDA conducted a number of sensitivity analyses to test the impact of various variables in the restructuring These analyses help to determine whether 1) the restructuring is necessary and 2) how a change in the revenue variables might affect the Agencyrsquos financial situation

1 Need for Restructuring

To help determine the need for the restructuring MDA ran debt service coverages under two debt service coverage scenarios

a Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service as it currently exists (please see Exhibit 3 for more details) b Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service after the restructuring (please see Exhibit 1 for more details) c Using no revenue growth with existing debt service and (please see Exhibit 4 for more details) d Using no revenue growth with restructured debt service (please see Exhibit 5 for more details)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 12

FINAL July 3 2013

The results of these scenarios are as follows

Base Case Revenues with Base Case Revenues with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

104x (2016) 136x (2015)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

132x (2039) 346x (2053)

Average Senior Lien Coverage 121x 212x Years Below 13x Coverage 25 0 Years Below 10x Coverage 0 0

No Revenue Growth with No Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

032x (2040) 049x (2053)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage 101x (2014) 138x (2014) Average Senior Lien Coverage 059x 078x Years Below 13x Coverage 26 35 Years Below 10x Coverage 24 30

The larger number of years below the coverage requirement is due to the fact that the final maturity of the bonds is extended with the restructured debt service

Clearly without the restructuring the Agency cannot meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases coverages would soon fall below 100x debt service obligations

Variable Sensitivities To test the sensitivity of a number of important variables on the Agencyrsquos post‐restructuring debt profile MDA ran the following sensitivities

1 amp 2 The TampR Consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case and an All‐Electronic Tolling (ldquoAETrdquo) scenario The only difference between the two projections is a one‐time revenue loss of $45 million in 2014 due to discounts provided to drivers for using electronic tolling The TampR Consultant assumes that no further impact on revenues occurs thereafter Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for additional detail

3 The TampR Consultant also provides the general effect of a 2020 recession by assuming revenues decline from the Base Case to $127270000 in 2020 For the purposes of running our sensitivity we assumed this decrease occurs on a pro rata basis through 2020 and then revenue grows annually thereafter by the same percentage growth as shown in the Base Case Please see Exhibit 6 for additional detail

4 The TampR Consultant observes that based on historical results the elasticity of

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 13

FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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skkQiNBDd_sliDNQgtDNlsiN$QR$d$iNQiqQMdDl$gtl$QpRQksJVQiNgtkOiNltQpOlQNDlQki_il$QlDV gtDMRdiltRlQksJVQsNQNDN$QDBQqOgtRQiNBDd_sliDNQ_sRQp$QgtDMi$QDdQDlR$dJiq$ d$MdDOgt$VQd$MsgtPslt$VQBOdlR$dQldsNq_ill$VQldsNqB$dd$VQiqq$_iNsl$V d$iqldipOl$QDdQd$qDkVQDdQqlDd$QBDdQqOpq$VO$NlQOq$QBDdQsNRQqOgtRQMOdMDq$VQiN JRDk$QDdQiNQMsdlVQiNQsNRQBDd_QDdQ_sNN$dQDdQpRQsNRQ_$sNqQJRslqD$T$dVQpRQsNRQM$dqDN JilRDOlQ_DDRbqQMdiDdQJdill$NQgtDNq$NlIQsmmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQSGfegYO`QGaQ_DDRbq nTStQcSXT9OcQGOmgOoO`QGaQgfQfSQGOQe99XTefOQeY`QTOmgeGmOIQpO9eXcOQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQFXteYQSTQtO9FeYg9emQOTTSTQec POmmQecQSfFOTQne9fSTcVQFSPOoOTVQemmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQampTSog`O`QEsqQiqEQPgfFSXfQPeTTeYfaQSnQeYaQUgY`I _DDRbqQe`SampfcQemmQYO9OcceTaQtOecXTOcQcSQfFefQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQgfQXcOcQgYQeccghYgYhQeQ9TO`gfQTefgYhQgcQSnQcXnng9gOYf QXemgfaQeY`QnTStQcSXT9OcQ_SS`abcQ9SYcg`OTcQfSQGOQTOmgeGmOVQgY9mX`gYhVQPFOYQeampampTSampTgefOVQgY`OampOY`OYfQfFgT`^ampeTfa cSXT9OcIQRSPOoOTVQ_DDRbqQgcQYSfQeYQeX`gfSTQeY`Q9eYYSfQgYQOoOTaQgYcfeY9OQgY`OampOY`OYfmaQoOTgnaQSTQoemg`efO gYnSTtefgSYQTO9OgoO`QgYQfFOQTefgYhQampTS9OccIQOY`OTQYSQ9gT9XtcfeY9OcQcFemmQ_DDRbqQFeoOQeYaQmgeGgmgfaQfSQeYa ampOTcSYQSTQOYfgfaQnSTQAeCQeYaQmSccQSTQ`etehOQgYQPFSmOQSTQgYQampeTfQ9eXcO`QGaVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStVQSTQTOmefgYhQfSVQeYaQOTTST AYOhmghOYfQSTQSfFOTPgcOCQSTQSfFOTQ9gT9XtcfeY9OQSTQ9SYfgYhOY9aQPgfFgYQSTQSXfcg`OQfFOQ9SYfTSmQSnQ_DDRbqQSTQeYaQSn gfcQ`gTO9fSTcVQSnng9OTcVQOtampmSaOOcQSTQehOYfcQgYQ9SYYO9fgSYQPgfFQfFOQampTS9XTOtOYfVQ9SmmO9fgSYVQ9StampgmefgSYVQeYemacgcV gYfOTampTOfefgSYVQ9SttXYg9efgSYVQampXGmg9efgSYQSTQ`OmgoOTaQSnQeYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYVQSTQAGCQeYaQ`gTO9fVQgY`gTO9fVQcampO9gemV 9SYcOQXOYfgemVQ9StampOYcefSTaQSTQgY9g`OYfemQ`etehOcQPFefcSOoOTQAgY9mX`gYhQPgfFSXfQmgtgfefgSYVQmScfQampTSngfcCVQOoOYQgn _DDRbqQgcQe`ogcO`QgYQe`oeY9OQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQcX9FQ`etehOcVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStQfFOQXcOQSnQSTQgYeGgmgfaQfSQXcOV eYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYIQlFOQTefgYhcVQngYeY9gemQTOampSTfgYhQeYemacgcVQampTSHO9fgSYcVQeY`QSfFOTQSGcOToefgSYcVQgnQeYaV 9SYcfgfXfgYhQampeTfQSnQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQeTOVQeY`QtXcfQGOQ9SYcfTXO`QcSmOmaQecVQcfefOtOYfcQSnQSampgYgSY eY`QYSfQcfefOtOYfcQSnQne9fQSTQTO9SttOY`efgSYcQfSQampXT9FecOVQcOmmQSTQFSm`QeYaQcO9XTgfgOcIQ$e9FQXcOTQSnQfFO gYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQtXcfQteUOQgfcQSPYQcfX`aQeY`QOoemXefgSYQSnQOe9FQcO9XTgfaQgfQteaQ9SYcg`OTQampXT9FecgYhV FSm`gYhQSTQcOmmgYhIQNDQJsddsNlRVQ$WMd$qqQDdQi_Mki$VQsqQlDQlR$QsgtgtOdsgtRVQli_$kiN$qqV gtD_Mk$l$N$qqVQ_$dgtRsNlspikilRQDdQBilN$qqQBDdQsNRQMsdligtOksdQMOdMDq$QDBQsNRQqOgtR dsliNltQDdQDlR$dQDMiNiDNQDdQiNBDd_sliDNQiqQltiT$NQDdQ_s$QpRQ_DDRbqQiNQsNRQBDd_QDd _sNN$dQJRslqD$T$dI

_iqVQeQPFSmma^SPYO`Q9TO`gfQTefgYhQehOY9aQcXGcg`geTaQSnQ_SS`abcQgtSTampSTefgSYQAE_gtDECVQFOTOGaQ`gc9mScOcQfFefQtScf gccXOTcQSnQ`OGfQcO9XTgfgOcQAgY9mX`gYhQ9STampSTefOQeY`QtXYg9gampemQGSY`cVQ`OGOYfXTOcVQYSfOcQeY`Q9SttOT9gemQampeampOTCQeY` ampTOnOTTO`QcfS9UQTefO`QGaQ_iqQFeoOVQampTgSTQfSQeccghYtOYfQSnQeYaQTefgYhVQehTOO`QfSQampeaQfSQ_iqQnSTQeampampTegcemQeY`QTefgYh cOTog9OcQTOY`OTO`QGaQgfQnOOcQTeYhgYhQnTStQuZV[[QfSQeampampTSgtefOmaQuV[[V[[[IQ_gtDQeY`Q_iqQemcSQtegYfegYQampSmg9gOc eY`QampTS9O`XTOcQfSQe``TOccQfFOQgY`OampOY`OY9OQSnQ_iqbcQTefgYhcQeY`QTefgYhQampTS9OccOcIQiYnSTtefgSYQTOheT`gYhQ9OTfegY enngmgefgSYcQfFefQteaQOgcfQGOfPOOYQ`gTO9fSTcQSnQ_gtDQeY`QTefO`QOYfgfgOcVQeY`QGOfPOOYQOYfgfgOcQPFSQFSm`QTefgYhcQnTSt _iqQeY`QFeoOQemcSQampXGmg9maQTOampSTfO`QfSQfFOQq$gtQeYQSPYOTcFgampQgYfOTOcfQgYQ_gtDQSnQtSTOQfFeYQNVQgcQampScfO`QeYYXemma efQPPPItSS`acI9StQXY`OTQfFOQFOe`gYhQEqFeTOFSm`OTQdOmefgSYcQXQgtSTampSTefOQltSoOTYeY9OQXQgTO9fSTQeY` qFeTOFSm`OTQsnngmgefgSYQMSmg9aIE

BSTQsXcfTemgeQSYmajQsYaQampXGmg9efgSYQgYfSQsXcfTemgeQSnQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQampXTcXeYfQfSQfFOQsXcfTemgeYQBgYeY9gemQqOTog9Oc kg9OYcOQSnQ_DDRbqQenngmgefOVQ_SS`abcQiYoOcfSTcQqOTog9OQMfaQkgtgfO`QspNQZQ[[]Q]KKQsBqkQ]]KKQeY`ST _SS`abcQsYemafg9cQsXcfTemgeQMfaQkf`QspNQK=QZ[QZ]QKQsBqkQ]]KQAecQeampampmg9eGmOCIQlFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQgYfOY`O` fSQGOQampTSog`O`QSYmaQfSQEPFSmOcemOQ9mgOYfcEQPgfFgYQfFOQtOeYgYhQSnQcO9fgSYQZltQSnQfFOQgtSTampSTefgSYcQs9fQ[[ZIQpa 9SYfgYXgYhQfSQe99OccQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQnTStQPgfFgYQsXcfTemgeVQaSXQTOampTOcOYfQfSQ_DDRbqQfFefQaSXQeTOVQSTQeTO

FINAL July 3 2013

data analysis MDA also held conference calls with Agency personnel to discuss any recent updates to financial information that might not be reflected in published materials

5 Agency Restructuring Plan

The Agencyrsquos restructuring is currently scheduled to be sold the week of July 8 The exact amount and types of bonds offered to the market will vary depending on market conditions According to the financial model provided to us on June 13 2013 the offering would consist of approximately $14 billion of tax‐exempt Senior Lien Toll Road Revenue Bonds Series 2013A (approximately $113 billion of which will be Current Interest Bonds and $270 million of which will be Capital Appreciation Bonds) $210 million of tax‐exempt Junior Lien Toll Road Refunding Revenue Bonds Series 2013B Current Interest Bonds and up to approximately $600 million of tax‐exempt Toll Road Refunding Revenue Bonds Series 2013D Forward Delivery Bonds

The amount of tax‐exempt Series 2013D Forward Delivery Bonds will be reduced and there will be a corresponding increase in the current delivery Series 2013A bonds should the Agencyrsquos tender offer for a portion of its outstanding bonds be successful The amount of Series 2013C Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds will be sufficient to affect the full defeasance of the Series 1999 bonds in July 2013 and will be refunded by the Series 2013C Bonds on October 17 2013

Restructuring Objectives The Agencyrsquos existing annual debt service obligation is $105 million in 2013 growing steadily at approximately 44 per year to a maximum level of approximately $298 million in 2040 The objective of the restructuring will be to refund and restructure most of the Agencyrsquos $24 billion in outstanding bonds On June 13 Agency staff recommended to its Board to move forward with the restructuring so long as the rate of debt service growth is 350 or below on average maximum annual debt service is reduced substantially a majority of the new bonds are callable at par after ten years and there are present value savings or the present value loss of the refinancing is not substantial Agency staff states that achieving these objectives will improve the Agencyrsquos long‐term financial stability and near‐term financial flexibility and preserve its credit ratings Please see Exhibits 1 through 8 for the debt service schedules under the existing debt structure and with the restructuring in place

Under the restructuring the Agency staff believes it will have more latitude to manage toll rates given economic conditions traffic patterns and toll rate elasticity Lower annual debt service should also eliminate the need for the Agency to commit cash from unrestricted reserves to fund an escrow defeasance fund to meet debt service coverage covenant requirements a practice the rating agencies have cited as a negative credit factor A lower annual debt service growth rate of 35 is below the average revenue growth of 455 between 2014 and 2053 projected by the TampR Consultant

Restructuring Details According to the June 12 2013 Agency staff report to the Board based upon market interest

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 6

FINAL July 3 2013

rates and assumed credit ratings the proposed structure includes the following

Positive Present Value Savings With current interest rates the net present value savings from the restructuring would be 27 (most issuers have at least a 3 threshold of net present value savings for a refunding) However Agency staff has stated market conditions may change through the date of sale and in fact there has been a significant increase in both taxable and tax‐exempt interest rates since the issuance of the staff report and the Board action damaging the economics of the transaction The Agency has stated that the refinancing will be executed if the Agency generates present value debt service savings or a minimal present value loss

Lower Debt Service Growth Rates The refinancing results in (i) an annual debt service growth rate of 35 or below versus the current 44 (ii) increased debt service coverage margins over the term of the refunding bonds (iii) reduced debt service payments between 2014 and 2040 and (iv) lower maximum annual debt service resulting in a lower debt service reserve requirement

Callable Debt A significant majority of the new debt is callable at par (no premium) in ten years Before year ten all of the debt is callable at a premium based upon a ldquomake wholerdquo call formula

Final maturity The final maturity of the bonds will be extended to 2053 (from the current final maturity date of 2040) in order to lower the annual growth rate in debt service and defer principal repayment

Senior and Subordinate Bonds Approximately $200 million of subordinate or Junior Lien bonds will be issued as part of the overall restructuring in order to lower costs and improve savings by reducing the issuance of Capital Appreciation Bonds

Toll Rate Covenant Senior debt coverage will remain at 130x but aggregate coverage on all bonds (including the junior lien) will be 115x

Credit Ratings Baa3 BBB‐ and BBB‐ on senior lien debt and Ba1 BB+ and BB on subordinate bonds from Moodyrsquos SampP and Fitch respectively

Use of Escrow Defeasance Fund The refinancing has been structured to meet the Agencyrsquos covenant requirements without reliance on the Escrow Defeasance Fund

Debt Service Reserves Debt Service Reserve sizing is based on maximum annual debt service which will be reduced significantly Excess existing bond debt service reserves will be released to pay down debt andor reduce the amount of refunding bonds

Other Features The restructuring will initiate a tender offer on the 1999 convertible capital appreciation bonds that are not currently callable and issue taxable bonds andor forward delivery bonds for any such bonds that are not purchased through the tender process

Elements of the restructuring plan merit additional examination

1 Extension of Final Maturity The currently outstanding bond structure has a final maturity of January 1 2040 However under the restructuring the final maturity will be extended to 2053 in order to achieve the

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 7

FINAL July 3 2013

Agencyrsquos goals of lowering annual debt service levels enhancing debt service coverage lowering peak debt service and reducing the debt service growth rate

Lower debt service reduced debt service growth and better coverage should produce excess revenue which the Agency plans to utilize to pay down debt or fund capital projects Because of the call features of the restructuring bonds the Agency will have the option to use excess revenue to retire debt early

MDArsquos view on the extension of the final maturity is that it is an essential part of the restructuring plan However as mentioned the public policy drawback to the extension is that it extends the tolling period of the FoothillEastern an additional thirteen years We believe that one way to mitigate the damage caused by extending the tolling period is to reduce the extended period by prepaying the debt maturing during the extended period by setting aside a significant percentage (eg 50) of the annual debt service savings from the restructuring in an escrow account to be used for calling bonds beginning with the longest maturities on the first possible call date

2 Junior (or Subordinate) Lien Debt By selling a portion (estimated to be approximately $200 million as June 14 2013) of the refunding bonds on a junior lien basis instead of expensive senior lien Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquoCABsrdquo) the Agency can increase savings Junior lien bonds also have a lower debt service coverage requirement (115x aggregate debt service) than does senior lien debt (130x coverage ratio) As of June 13 2013 the use of junior lien bonds reduces the amount of senior lien CABs needed in the refinancing to approximately $270 million and shortens the final maturity of the senior lien CABs which lowers costs and adds call flexibility

MDArsquos view is that the Junior Lien debt is helpful to the restructuring in terms of cost and flexibility compared to the alternative of issuing additional Senior Lien CABs

3 Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Forward Delivery Bonds All of the 1999 Bonds must be refunded at the same time to meet the refunding test of the Master Indenture Approximately $580 million of Convertible Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquo1999 C‐CABsrdquo) cannot be refunded on a tax‐exempt basis prior to October 17 2013 Thus the proposed restructuring plan includes the use of an Invitation to Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds in order to lock in todayrsquos interest rates

Under the Invitation to Tender the Agency will offer to purchase the 1999 C‐CABs from existing investors at a price advantageous to the Agency The tender price will be set at a level that produces savings to the Agency greater than the savings produced by the alternative financing structure which is taxable callable stepped coupon bonds combined with forward delivery bonds The Agency CFO and CEO will decide if a tender price may be accepted in consultation with the Agencyrsquos Financial Advisor (PFM)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 8

FINAL July 3 2013

If there is an insufficient amount of 1999 C‐CAB tenders the Agency has an alternative financing structure that will lock in todayrsquos interest rates The Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds may be issued now to refund the 1999 C‐CABs The taxable bonds will have a lower taxable rate initially and will be callable at par on October 17 2013 Failure to call the Taxable Stepped Coupon Bonds by January 15 2014 will result in an increase in a stepped‐up interest rate on the bonds to a significantly higher penalty rate

To lock in long‐term tax‐exempt rates and provide a funding source to call the taxable bonds on October 17 2013 the long‐term Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds will be sold simultaneously with the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds (the interest rate will be set based upon current market levels) but will be delivered on October 17 2013 The Agency assumes the risk that the Forward Delivery bonds fail to be settled and delivered on October 17 2013 but the Agency considers the risk to be somewhat remote

In the unlikely event the Forward Delivery Bonds fail to close the Agency has the option between October 17 2013 and January 15 2014 of refunding the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds by issuing additional tax‐exempt or taxable bonds at the then current interest rates If the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds are not called and retired on October 17 2013 by the Forward Delivery Bonds or by other refunding Bonds before January 15 2014 the interest rate on these bonds increases or steps up to the higher penalty rate

MDArsquos view is that the tender structure is a low risk practical means of lowering the Agencyrsquos cost to call the C‐CABS If sufficient tender offers are not received issuing the taxable and Forward Delivery Bonds is a reasonable alternative

4 Use of Callable CABs The restructuring plan includes the use of $270 million of CABs an expensive and controversial type of security that compounds interest and defers interest payments to investors

While CABs must be used with great discretion there is a valuable use for them in certain very specific instances Because of the toll roadrsquos revenue structure and the Agencyrsquos familiarity with the financing structure from previous transactions MDArsquos view is that they are a necessary and appropriate element of this restructuring

MDA did not find any serious flaws with the Agencyrsquos restructuring plan that would require a delay in the proposed timing for the bonds sale currently scheduled for the week of July 8 MDA does recommend however the following revisions to the proposed restructuring plan be considered

1 Under the revised Cooperative Agreement payments to Caltrans will be made from surplus revenues available after Current Expenses and debt payments are made Based

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 9

FINAL July 3 2013

on the pro forma model sufficient surplus revenues are anticipated to make these payments The primary payment risk to Caltrans is that Current Expenses are far greater than anticipated or new debt is issued for the Tesoro Extension or Foothill South Extension without having offsetting revenues Thus because of the potential negative impact on the Agency to meet its future payment obligations to Caltrans Caltrans should modify the Cooperative Agreement in a manner to protect itself and bondholders from dilution of existing revenues for the extension projects For example one way to do this would be to require that none of the bond proceeds or cash flow savings should be used to fund the Foothill South or Tesoro Extension projects without Caltrans being presented with and approving a feasibility and financial plan for these projects

2 To offset the impact on the public of extending toll collection on the project an additional thirteen years a portion of the annual cash flow savings from the restructuring should be devoted to calling the bonds starting with the longest maturities first in order to shorten the time the tolls are in effect According to our calculations if all surplus revenues resulting from the restructuring from 2014 to 2039 were used to call bonds maturing from 2041 to 2053 the tolls could be ended in 2040 as is currently the case Alternatively recognizing the Agencyrsquos need for capital improvement funding setting aside 50 of the cash flow savings from the restructuring would enable the tolling to end in 2046 cutting seven years from the anticipated tolling end in 2053 ameliorating the major public policy drawback of the Agencyrsquos restructuring

6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study

In the past the Agencyrsquos previous TampR studies by Wilbur Smith Associates have significantly over‐estimated revenues lending to an over‐issuance of debt The Agency retained Stantec Consulting Services Inc to provide a traffic and revenue study to forecast future traffic and revenue generating capability of the Project through 2053 The TampR study also serves as the basis for the rating agencies to provide ratings for the refunding bonds Stantecrsquos Base Case toll schedule projects an average toll revenue growth rate of 455 between 2014 and 2053 with rates of 4 to 9 between now and 2024 based upon projected traffic volume increases and toll rate increases of 25 to 3 on average Despite the TampR consultantrsquos projection of 455 revenue growth the Agency restructured the debt service growth rate at 35 to be conservative

The TampR Consultant assumed the SR 91SR 241 connector is built and provides increased traffic demand on the toll road However while it is anticipated that there will be a fee to enter the 91241 connector no revenue generated from entrance fees to the 91241 connector was included in the forecast Improvements to the I‐5 were included as part of the future year networks The TampR Study assumes the Tesoro Extension and Foothill South projects are not built during the study period

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 10

FINAL July 3 2013

As part of our financial evaluation MDA reviewed the TampR study and developed a list of questions which served as the basis for a call with the TampR consultant on June 18th

Our questions and the TampR consultantrsquos answers are summarized below

Questions Answers

1) The TampR study assumes driving habits will stay essentially the same over the study period Yet one of the observable trends in transportation is that people are driving less to work because of telecommuting ridesharing moving to population centers where public transit is available etc Should the TampR study have addressed this at least in sensitivity

1) This factor is not applicable to Orange County as residents are very dependent on their cars for transportation and options for public transit are not good

2) The elasticity of demand is a major factor in toll revenue projections Two related questions a In the TampR report decreases in demand

are explained primarily by the impact of the recession Do you fell elasticity of demand was given adequate consideration

b The TampR report assumes the impact of elasticity is linear Could you explain that as it seems counterintuitive

2a) Yes this factor is monitored carefully and ten yearsrsquo worth of data is available to analyze

2b) TampR report provides adequate discussion of elasticity of demand

3) Could you explain why a traffic increase is assumed related to the construction of the SR 241SR 91 but no associated revenue

3) For the 91241 connector the anticipated $2 fee to use the connector is not included but increased traffic on the toll road generated from the connector is included in the revenue projections

4) The TampR study does not address whether the driverrsquos value of travel time savings has changed because of the recession Could you address that

4) The value of time saving in the TampR model is based on the 2012 recessionary conditions and thus no further change is needed

5) The Sensitivity Analysis section is fairly short Was any thought given to the impact of competing facilities after the Caltrans non‐compete agreement ends in 2020 Or the elasticity of demand Or testing for changes in the value of travel time savings

5) The 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization scenarios bracket the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities are not needed

6) Was a peer review done or is one contemplated

6) No peer review is planned

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 11

FINAL July 3 2013

The TampR consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case projection and an All‐Electric tolling (AET) The AET projection assumes all electronic tolling will be in place in the summer of 2014 Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for the Base Case and AET revenue projections

1 In addition the TampR consultant estimated the gross annual revenue impact for two additional scenarios (The TampR consultant did not project annual revenues for these two additional scenarios) A 2020 recession which effectively forecasted no economic growth in the next eight years The result was a 27 reduction in revenues for FY 2020

2 A Revenue Maximization projection in which rates at all mainline toll plazas were increased to the point of maximum revenue generation The impact of this scenario was an increase in revenues of 140 in 2035

When asked why more sensitivities were not run the TampR consultant responded that the two additional scenarios (the 2020 recession and the Revenue Maximization) bracketed the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities were not necessary However MDA believes that it is important to understand the impact on the financial model to changes in major variables Therefore we undertook to run our own set of sensitivities which are discussed below

In our view while we do not believe the TampR study is fatally flawed it does suffer from several deficiencies First an insufficient number of sensitivities are considered such as testing such variables as elasticity of demand change in the value of travel savings and the impact of competing facilities This is particularly important as both Moodyrsquos and Fitch note that the projectrsquos toll rates are high relative to its peers Additionally the data provided on the TampR studyrsquos two sensitivities for the 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization is only for one year leaving unexplained what happens before and after that year

Sensitivity Analyses MDA conducted a number of sensitivity analyses to test the impact of various variables in the restructuring These analyses help to determine whether 1) the restructuring is necessary and 2) how a change in the revenue variables might affect the Agencyrsquos financial situation

1 Need for Restructuring

To help determine the need for the restructuring MDA ran debt service coverages under two debt service coverage scenarios

a Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service as it currently exists (please see Exhibit 3 for more details) b Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service after the restructuring (please see Exhibit 1 for more details) c Using no revenue growth with existing debt service and (please see Exhibit 4 for more details) d Using no revenue growth with restructured debt service (please see Exhibit 5 for more details)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 12

FINAL July 3 2013

The results of these scenarios are as follows

Base Case Revenues with Base Case Revenues with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

104x (2016) 136x (2015)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

132x (2039) 346x (2053)

Average Senior Lien Coverage 121x 212x Years Below 13x Coverage 25 0 Years Below 10x Coverage 0 0

No Revenue Growth with No Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

032x (2040) 049x (2053)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage 101x (2014) 138x (2014) Average Senior Lien Coverage 059x 078x Years Below 13x Coverage 26 35 Years Below 10x Coverage 24 30

The larger number of years below the coverage requirement is due to the fact that the final maturity of the bonds is extended with the restructured debt service

Clearly without the restructuring the Agency cannot meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases coverages would soon fall below 100x debt service obligations

Variable Sensitivities To test the sensitivity of a number of important variables on the Agencyrsquos post‐restructuring debt profile MDA ran the following sensitivities

1 amp 2 The TampR Consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case and an All‐Electronic Tolling (ldquoAETrdquo) scenario The only difference between the two projections is a one‐time revenue loss of $45 million in 2014 due to discounts provided to drivers for using electronic tolling The TampR Consultant assumes that no further impact on revenues occurs thereafter Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for additional detail

3 The TampR Consultant also provides the general effect of a 2020 recession by assuming revenues decline from the Base Case to $127270000 in 2020 For the purposes of running our sensitivity we assumed this decrease occurs on a pro rata basis through 2020 and then revenue grows annually thereafter by the same percentage growth as shown in the Base Case Please see Exhibit 6 for additional detail

4 The TampR Consultant observes that based on historical results the elasticity of

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 13

FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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BSTQsXcfTemgeQSYmajQsYaQampXGmg9efgSYQgYfSQsXcfTemgeQSnQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQampXTcXeYfQfSQfFOQsXcfTemgeYQBgYeY9gemQqOTog9Oc kg9OYcOQSnQ_DDRbqQenngmgefOVQ_SS`abcQiYoOcfSTcQqOTog9OQMfaQkgtgfO`QspNQZQ[[]Q]KKQsBqkQ]]KKQeY`ST _SS`abcQsYemafg9cQsXcfTemgeQMfaQkf`QspNQK=QZ[QZ]QKQsBqkQ]]KQAecQeampampmg9eGmOCIQlFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQgYfOY`O` fSQGOQampTSog`O`QSYmaQfSQEPFSmOcemOQ9mgOYfcEQPgfFgYQfFOQtOeYgYhQSnQcO9fgSYQZltQSnQfFOQgtSTampSTefgSYcQs9fQ[[ZIQpa 9SYfgYXgYhQfSQe99OccQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQnTStQPgfFgYQsXcfTemgeVQaSXQTOampTOcOYfQfSQ_DDRbqQfFefQaSXQeTOVQSTQeTO

FINAL July 3 2013

rates and assumed credit ratings the proposed structure includes the following

Positive Present Value Savings With current interest rates the net present value savings from the restructuring would be 27 (most issuers have at least a 3 threshold of net present value savings for a refunding) However Agency staff has stated market conditions may change through the date of sale and in fact there has been a significant increase in both taxable and tax‐exempt interest rates since the issuance of the staff report and the Board action damaging the economics of the transaction The Agency has stated that the refinancing will be executed if the Agency generates present value debt service savings or a minimal present value loss

Lower Debt Service Growth Rates The refinancing results in (i) an annual debt service growth rate of 35 or below versus the current 44 (ii) increased debt service coverage margins over the term of the refunding bonds (iii) reduced debt service payments between 2014 and 2040 and (iv) lower maximum annual debt service resulting in a lower debt service reserve requirement

Callable Debt A significant majority of the new debt is callable at par (no premium) in ten years Before year ten all of the debt is callable at a premium based upon a ldquomake wholerdquo call formula

Final maturity The final maturity of the bonds will be extended to 2053 (from the current final maturity date of 2040) in order to lower the annual growth rate in debt service and defer principal repayment

Senior and Subordinate Bonds Approximately $200 million of subordinate or Junior Lien bonds will be issued as part of the overall restructuring in order to lower costs and improve savings by reducing the issuance of Capital Appreciation Bonds

Toll Rate Covenant Senior debt coverage will remain at 130x but aggregate coverage on all bonds (including the junior lien) will be 115x

Credit Ratings Baa3 BBB‐ and BBB‐ on senior lien debt and Ba1 BB+ and BB on subordinate bonds from Moodyrsquos SampP and Fitch respectively

Use of Escrow Defeasance Fund The refinancing has been structured to meet the Agencyrsquos covenant requirements without reliance on the Escrow Defeasance Fund

Debt Service Reserves Debt Service Reserve sizing is based on maximum annual debt service which will be reduced significantly Excess existing bond debt service reserves will be released to pay down debt andor reduce the amount of refunding bonds

Other Features The restructuring will initiate a tender offer on the 1999 convertible capital appreciation bonds that are not currently callable and issue taxable bonds andor forward delivery bonds for any such bonds that are not purchased through the tender process

Elements of the restructuring plan merit additional examination

1 Extension of Final Maturity The currently outstanding bond structure has a final maturity of January 1 2040 However under the restructuring the final maturity will be extended to 2053 in order to achieve the

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 7

FINAL July 3 2013

Agencyrsquos goals of lowering annual debt service levels enhancing debt service coverage lowering peak debt service and reducing the debt service growth rate

Lower debt service reduced debt service growth and better coverage should produce excess revenue which the Agency plans to utilize to pay down debt or fund capital projects Because of the call features of the restructuring bonds the Agency will have the option to use excess revenue to retire debt early

MDArsquos view on the extension of the final maturity is that it is an essential part of the restructuring plan However as mentioned the public policy drawback to the extension is that it extends the tolling period of the FoothillEastern an additional thirteen years We believe that one way to mitigate the damage caused by extending the tolling period is to reduce the extended period by prepaying the debt maturing during the extended period by setting aside a significant percentage (eg 50) of the annual debt service savings from the restructuring in an escrow account to be used for calling bonds beginning with the longest maturities on the first possible call date

2 Junior (or Subordinate) Lien Debt By selling a portion (estimated to be approximately $200 million as June 14 2013) of the refunding bonds on a junior lien basis instead of expensive senior lien Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquoCABsrdquo) the Agency can increase savings Junior lien bonds also have a lower debt service coverage requirement (115x aggregate debt service) than does senior lien debt (130x coverage ratio) As of June 13 2013 the use of junior lien bonds reduces the amount of senior lien CABs needed in the refinancing to approximately $270 million and shortens the final maturity of the senior lien CABs which lowers costs and adds call flexibility

MDArsquos view is that the Junior Lien debt is helpful to the restructuring in terms of cost and flexibility compared to the alternative of issuing additional Senior Lien CABs

3 Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Forward Delivery Bonds All of the 1999 Bonds must be refunded at the same time to meet the refunding test of the Master Indenture Approximately $580 million of Convertible Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquo1999 C‐CABsrdquo) cannot be refunded on a tax‐exempt basis prior to October 17 2013 Thus the proposed restructuring plan includes the use of an Invitation to Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds in order to lock in todayrsquos interest rates

Under the Invitation to Tender the Agency will offer to purchase the 1999 C‐CABs from existing investors at a price advantageous to the Agency The tender price will be set at a level that produces savings to the Agency greater than the savings produced by the alternative financing structure which is taxable callable stepped coupon bonds combined with forward delivery bonds The Agency CFO and CEO will decide if a tender price may be accepted in consultation with the Agencyrsquos Financial Advisor (PFM)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 8

FINAL July 3 2013

If there is an insufficient amount of 1999 C‐CAB tenders the Agency has an alternative financing structure that will lock in todayrsquos interest rates The Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds may be issued now to refund the 1999 C‐CABs The taxable bonds will have a lower taxable rate initially and will be callable at par on October 17 2013 Failure to call the Taxable Stepped Coupon Bonds by January 15 2014 will result in an increase in a stepped‐up interest rate on the bonds to a significantly higher penalty rate

To lock in long‐term tax‐exempt rates and provide a funding source to call the taxable bonds on October 17 2013 the long‐term Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds will be sold simultaneously with the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds (the interest rate will be set based upon current market levels) but will be delivered on October 17 2013 The Agency assumes the risk that the Forward Delivery bonds fail to be settled and delivered on October 17 2013 but the Agency considers the risk to be somewhat remote

In the unlikely event the Forward Delivery Bonds fail to close the Agency has the option between October 17 2013 and January 15 2014 of refunding the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds by issuing additional tax‐exempt or taxable bonds at the then current interest rates If the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds are not called and retired on October 17 2013 by the Forward Delivery Bonds or by other refunding Bonds before January 15 2014 the interest rate on these bonds increases or steps up to the higher penalty rate

MDArsquos view is that the tender structure is a low risk practical means of lowering the Agencyrsquos cost to call the C‐CABS If sufficient tender offers are not received issuing the taxable and Forward Delivery Bonds is a reasonable alternative

4 Use of Callable CABs The restructuring plan includes the use of $270 million of CABs an expensive and controversial type of security that compounds interest and defers interest payments to investors

While CABs must be used with great discretion there is a valuable use for them in certain very specific instances Because of the toll roadrsquos revenue structure and the Agencyrsquos familiarity with the financing structure from previous transactions MDArsquos view is that they are a necessary and appropriate element of this restructuring

MDA did not find any serious flaws with the Agencyrsquos restructuring plan that would require a delay in the proposed timing for the bonds sale currently scheduled for the week of July 8 MDA does recommend however the following revisions to the proposed restructuring plan be considered

1 Under the revised Cooperative Agreement payments to Caltrans will be made from surplus revenues available after Current Expenses and debt payments are made Based

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 9

FINAL July 3 2013

on the pro forma model sufficient surplus revenues are anticipated to make these payments The primary payment risk to Caltrans is that Current Expenses are far greater than anticipated or new debt is issued for the Tesoro Extension or Foothill South Extension without having offsetting revenues Thus because of the potential negative impact on the Agency to meet its future payment obligations to Caltrans Caltrans should modify the Cooperative Agreement in a manner to protect itself and bondholders from dilution of existing revenues for the extension projects For example one way to do this would be to require that none of the bond proceeds or cash flow savings should be used to fund the Foothill South or Tesoro Extension projects without Caltrans being presented with and approving a feasibility and financial plan for these projects

2 To offset the impact on the public of extending toll collection on the project an additional thirteen years a portion of the annual cash flow savings from the restructuring should be devoted to calling the bonds starting with the longest maturities first in order to shorten the time the tolls are in effect According to our calculations if all surplus revenues resulting from the restructuring from 2014 to 2039 were used to call bonds maturing from 2041 to 2053 the tolls could be ended in 2040 as is currently the case Alternatively recognizing the Agencyrsquos need for capital improvement funding setting aside 50 of the cash flow savings from the restructuring would enable the tolling to end in 2046 cutting seven years from the anticipated tolling end in 2053 ameliorating the major public policy drawback of the Agencyrsquos restructuring

6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study

In the past the Agencyrsquos previous TampR studies by Wilbur Smith Associates have significantly over‐estimated revenues lending to an over‐issuance of debt The Agency retained Stantec Consulting Services Inc to provide a traffic and revenue study to forecast future traffic and revenue generating capability of the Project through 2053 The TampR study also serves as the basis for the rating agencies to provide ratings for the refunding bonds Stantecrsquos Base Case toll schedule projects an average toll revenue growth rate of 455 between 2014 and 2053 with rates of 4 to 9 between now and 2024 based upon projected traffic volume increases and toll rate increases of 25 to 3 on average Despite the TampR consultantrsquos projection of 455 revenue growth the Agency restructured the debt service growth rate at 35 to be conservative

The TampR Consultant assumed the SR 91SR 241 connector is built and provides increased traffic demand on the toll road However while it is anticipated that there will be a fee to enter the 91241 connector no revenue generated from entrance fees to the 91241 connector was included in the forecast Improvements to the I‐5 were included as part of the future year networks The TampR Study assumes the Tesoro Extension and Foothill South projects are not built during the study period

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 10

FINAL July 3 2013

As part of our financial evaluation MDA reviewed the TampR study and developed a list of questions which served as the basis for a call with the TampR consultant on June 18th

Our questions and the TampR consultantrsquos answers are summarized below

Questions Answers

1) The TampR study assumes driving habits will stay essentially the same over the study period Yet one of the observable trends in transportation is that people are driving less to work because of telecommuting ridesharing moving to population centers where public transit is available etc Should the TampR study have addressed this at least in sensitivity

1) This factor is not applicable to Orange County as residents are very dependent on their cars for transportation and options for public transit are not good

2) The elasticity of demand is a major factor in toll revenue projections Two related questions a In the TampR report decreases in demand

are explained primarily by the impact of the recession Do you fell elasticity of demand was given adequate consideration

b The TampR report assumes the impact of elasticity is linear Could you explain that as it seems counterintuitive

2a) Yes this factor is monitored carefully and ten yearsrsquo worth of data is available to analyze

2b) TampR report provides adequate discussion of elasticity of demand

3) Could you explain why a traffic increase is assumed related to the construction of the SR 241SR 91 but no associated revenue

3) For the 91241 connector the anticipated $2 fee to use the connector is not included but increased traffic on the toll road generated from the connector is included in the revenue projections

4) The TampR study does not address whether the driverrsquos value of travel time savings has changed because of the recession Could you address that

4) The value of time saving in the TampR model is based on the 2012 recessionary conditions and thus no further change is needed

5) The Sensitivity Analysis section is fairly short Was any thought given to the impact of competing facilities after the Caltrans non‐compete agreement ends in 2020 Or the elasticity of demand Or testing for changes in the value of travel time savings

5) The 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization scenarios bracket the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities are not needed

6) Was a peer review done or is one contemplated

6) No peer review is planned

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 11

FINAL July 3 2013

The TampR consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case projection and an All‐Electric tolling (AET) The AET projection assumes all electronic tolling will be in place in the summer of 2014 Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for the Base Case and AET revenue projections

1 In addition the TampR consultant estimated the gross annual revenue impact for two additional scenarios (The TampR consultant did not project annual revenues for these two additional scenarios) A 2020 recession which effectively forecasted no economic growth in the next eight years The result was a 27 reduction in revenues for FY 2020

2 A Revenue Maximization projection in which rates at all mainline toll plazas were increased to the point of maximum revenue generation The impact of this scenario was an increase in revenues of 140 in 2035

When asked why more sensitivities were not run the TampR consultant responded that the two additional scenarios (the 2020 recession and the Revenue Maximization) bracketed the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities were not necessary However MDA believes that it is important to understand the impact on the financial model to changes in major variables Therefore we undertook to run our own set of sensitivities which are discussed below

In our view while we do not believe the TampR study is fatally flawed it does suffer from several deficiencies First an insufficient number of sensitivities are considered such as testing such variables as elasticity of demand change in the value of travel savings and the impact of competing facilities This is particularly important as both Moodyrsquos and Fitch note that the projectrsquos toll rates are high relative to its peers Additionally the data provided on the TampR studyrsquos two sensitivities for the 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization is only for one year leaving unexplained what happens before and after that year

Sensitivity Analyses MDA conducted a number of sensitivity analyses to test the impact of various variables in the restructuring These analyses help to determine whether 1) the restructuring is necessary and 2) how a change in the revenue variables might affect the Agencyrsquos financial situation

1 Need for Restructuring

To help determine the need for the restructuring MDA ran debt service coverages under two debt service coverage scenarios

a Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service as it currently exists (please see Exhibit 3 for more details) b Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service after the restructuring (please see Exhibit 1 for more details) c Using no revenue growth with existing debt service and (please see Exhibit 4 for more details) d Using no revenue growth with restructured debt service (please see Exhibit 5 for more details)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 12

FINAL July 3 2013

The results of these scenarios are as follows

Base Case Revenues with Base Case Revenues with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

104x (2016) 136x (2015)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

132x (2039) 346x (2053)

Average Senior Lien Coverage 121x 212x Years Below 13x Coverage 25 0 Years Below 10x Coverage 0 0

No Revenue Growth with No Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

032x (2040) 049x (2053)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage 101x (2014) 138x (2014) Average Senior Lien Coverage 059x 078x Years Below 13x Coverage 26 35 Years Below 10x Coverage 24 30

The larger number of years below the coverage requirement is due to the fact that the final maturity of the bonds is extended with the restructured debt service

Clearly without the restructuring the Agency cannot meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases coverages would soon fall below 100x debt service obligations

Variable Sensitivities To test the sensitivity of a number of important variables on the Agencyrsquos post‐restructuring debt profile MDA ran the following sensitivities

1 amp 2 The TampR Consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case and an All‐Electronic Tolling (ldquoAETrdquo) scenario The only difference between the two projections is a one‐time revenue loss of $45 million in 2014 due to discounts provided to drivers for using electronic tolling The TampR Consultant assumes that no further impact on revenues occurs thereafter Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for additional detail

3 The TampR Consultant also provides the general effect of a 2020 recession by assuming revenues decline from the Base Case to $127270000 in 2020 For the purposes of running our sensitivity we assumed this decrease occurs on a pro rata basis through 2020 and then revenue grows annually thereafter by the same percentage growth as shown in the Base Case Please see Exhibit 6 for additional detail

4 The TampR Consultant observes that based on historical results the elasticity of

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 13

FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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_iqVQeQPFSmma^SPYO`Q9TO`gfQTefgYhQehOY9aQcXGcg`geTaQSnQ_SS`abcQgtSTampSTefgSYQAE_gtDECVQFOTOGaQ`gc9mScOcQfFefQtScf gccXOTcQSnQ`OGfQcO9XTgfgOcQAgY9mX`gYhQ9STampSTefOQeY`QtXYg9gampemQGSY`cVQ`OGOYfXTOcVQYSfOcQeY`Q9SttOT9gemQampeampOTCQeY` ampTOnOTTO`QcfS9UQTefO`QGaQ_iqQFeoOVQampTgSTQfSQeccghYtOYfQSnQeYaQTefgYhVQehTOO`QfSQampeaQfSQ_iqQnSTQeampampTegcemQeY`QTefgYh cOTog9OcQTOY`OTO`QGaQgfQnOOcQTeYhgYhQnTStQuZV[[QfSQeampampTSgtefOmaQuV[[V[[[IQ_gtDQeY`Q_iqQemcSQtegYfegYQampSmg9gOc eY`QampTS9O`XTOcQfSQe``TOccQfFOQgY`OampOY`OY9OQSnQ_iqbcQTefgYhcQeY`QTefgYhQampTS9OccOcIQiYnSTtefgSYQTOheT`gYhQ9OTfegY enngmgefgSYcQfFefQteaQOgcfQGOfPOOYQ`gTO9fSTcQSnQ_gtDQeY`QTefO`QOYfgfgOcVQeY`QGOfPOOYQOYfgfgOcQPFSQFSm`QTefgYhcQnTSt _iqQeY`QFeoOQemcSQampXGmg9maQTOampSTfO`QfSQfFOQq$gtQeYQSPYOTcFgampQgYfOTOcfQgYQ_gtDQSnQtSTOQfFeYQNVQgcQampScfO`QeYYXemma efQPPPItSS`acI9StQXY`OTQfFOQFOe`gYhQEqFeTOFSm`OTQdOmefgSYcQXQgtSTampSTefOQltSoOTYeY9OQXQgTO9fSTQeY` qFeTOFSm`OTQsnngmgefgSYQMSmg9aIE

BSTQsXcfTemgeQSYmajQsYaQampXGmg9efgSYQgYfSQsXcfTemgeQSnQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQampXTcXeYfQfSQfFOQsXcfTemgeYQBgYeY9gemQqOTog9Oc kg9OYcOQSnQ_DDRbqQenngmgefOVQ_SS`abcQiYoOcfSTcQqOTog9OQMfaQkgtgfO`QspNQZQ[[]Q]KKQsBqkQ]]KKQeY`ST _SS`abcQsYemafg9cQsXcfTemgeQMfaQkf`QspNQK=QZ[QZ]QKQsBqkQ]]KQAecQeampampmg9eGmOCIQlFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQgYfOY`O` fSQGOQampTSog`O`QSYmaQfSQEPFSmOcemOQ9mgOYfcEQPgfFgYQfFOQtOeYgYhQSnQcO9fgSYQZltQSnQfFOQgtSTampSTefgSYcQs9fQ[[ZIQpa 9SYfgYXgYhQfSQe99OccQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQnTStQPgfFgYQsXcfTemgeVQaSXQTOampTOcOYfQfSQ_DDRbqQfFefQaSXQeTOVQSTQeTO

FINAL July 3 2013

Agencyrsquos goals of lowering annual debt service levels enhancing debt service coverage lowering peak debt service and reducing the debt service growth rate

Lower debt service reduced debt service growth and better coverage should produce excess revenue which the Agency plans to utilize to pay down debt or fund capital projects Because of the call features of the restructuring bonds the Agency will have the option to use excess revenue to retire debt early

MDArsquos view on the extension of the final maturity is that it is an essential part of the restructuring plan However as mentioned the public policy drawback to the extension is that it extends the tolling period of the FoothillEastern an additional thirteen years We believe that one way to mitigate the damage caused by extending the tolling period is to reduce the extended period by prepaying the debt maturing during the extended period by setting aside a significant percentage (eg 50) of the annual debt service savings from the restructuring in an escrow account to be used for calling bonds beginning with the longest maturities on the first possible call date

2 Junior (or Subordinate) Lien Debt By selling a portion (estimated to be approximately $200 million as June 14 2013) of the refunding bonds on a junior lien basis instead of expensive senior lien Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquoCABsrdquo) the Agency can increase savings Junior lien bonds also have a lower debt service coverage requirement (115x aggregate debt service) than does senior lien debt (130x coverage ratio) As of June 13 2013 the use of junior lien bonds reduces the amount of senior lien CABs needed in the refinancing to approximately $270 million and shortens the final maturity of the senior lien CABs which lowers costs and adds call flexibility

MDArsquos view is that the Junior Lien debt is helpful to the restructuring in terms of cost and flexibility compared to the alternative of issuing additional Senior Lien CABs

3 Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Forward Delivery Bonds All of the 1999 Bonds must be refunded at the same time to meet the refunding test of the Master Indenture Approximately $580 million of Convertible Capital Appreciation Bonds (ldquo1999 C‐CABsrdquo) cannot be refunded on a tax‐exempt basis prior to October 17 2013 Thus the proposed restructuring plan includes the use of an Invitation to Tender Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds in order to lock in todayrsquos interest rates

Under the Invitation to Tender the Agency will offer to purchase the 1999 C‐CABs from existing investors at a price advantageous to the Agency The tender price will be set at a level that produces savings to the Agency greater than the savings produced by the alternative financing structure which is taxable callable stepped coupon bonds combined with forward delivery bonds The Agency CFO and CEO will decide if a tender price may be accepted in consultation with the Agencyrsquos Financial Advisor (PFM)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 8

FINAL July 3 2013

If there is an insufficient amount of 1999 C‐CAB tenders the Agency has an alternative financing structure that will lock in todayrsquos interest rates The Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds may be issued now to refund the 1999 C‐CABs The taxable bonds will have a lower taxable rate initially and will be callable at par on October 17 2013 Failure to call the Taxable Stepped Coupon Bonds by January 15 2014 will result in an increase in a stepped‐up interest rate on the bonds to a significantly higher penalty rate

To lock in long‐term tax‐exempt rates and provide a funding source to call the taxable bonds on October 17 2013 the long‐term Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds will be sold simultaneously with the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds (the interest rate will be set based upon current market levels) but will be delivered on October 17 2013 The Agency assumes the risk that the Forward Delivery bonds fail to be settled and delivered on October 17 2013 but the Agency considers the risk to be somewhat remote

In the unlikely event the Forward Delivery Bonds fail to close the Agency has the option between October 17 2013 and January 15 2014 of refunding the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds by issuing additional tax‐exempt or taxable bonds at the then current interest rates If the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds are not called and retired on October 17 2013 by the Forward Delivery Bonds or by other refunding Bonds before January 15 2014 the interest rate on these bonds increases or steps up to the higher penalty rate

MDArsquos view is that the tender structure is a low risk practical means of lowering the Agencyrsquos cost to call the C‐CABS If sufficient tender offers are not received issuing the taxable and Forward Delivery Bonds is a reasonable alternative

4 Use of Callable CABs The restructuring plan includes the use of $270 million of CABs an expensive and controversial type of security that compounds interest and defers interest payments to investors

While CABs must be used with great discretion there is a valuable use for them in certain very specific instances Because of the toll roadrsquos revenue structure and the Agencyrsquos familiarity with the financing structure from previous transactions MDArsquos view is that they are a necessary and appropriate element of this restructuring

MDA did not find any serious flaws with the Agencyrsquos restructuring plan that would require a delay in the proposed timing for the bonds sale currently scheduled for the week of July 8 MDA does recommend however the following revisions to the proposed restructuring plan be considered

1 Under the revised Cooperative Agreement payments to Caltrans will be made from surplus revenues available after Current Expenses and debt payments are made Based

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 9

FINAL July 3 2013

on the pro forma model sufficient surplus revenues are anticipated to make these payments The primary payment risk to Caltrans is that Current Expenses are far greater than anticipated or new debt is issued for the Tesoro Extension or Foothill South Extension without having offsetting revenues Thus because of the potential negative impact on the Agency to meet its future payment obligations to Caltrans Caltrans should modify the Cooperative Agreement in a manner to protect itself and bondholders from dilution of existing revenues for the extension projects For example one way to do this would be to require that none of the bond proceeds or cash flow savings should be used to fund the Foothill South or Tesoro Extension projects without Caltrans being presented with and approving a feasibility and financial plan for these projects

2 To offset the impact on the public of extending toll collection on the project an additional thirteen years a portion of the annual cash flow savings from the restructuring should be devoted to calling the bonds starting with the longest maturities first in order to shorten the time the tolls are in effect According to our calculations if all surplus revenues resulting from the restructuring from 2014 to 2039 were used to call bonds maturing from 2041 to 2053 the tolls could be ended in 2040 as is currently the case Alternatively recognizing the Agencyrsquos need for capital improvement funding setting aside 50 of the cash flow savings from the restructuring would enable the tolling to end in 2046 cutting seven years from the anticipated tolling end in 2053 ameliorating the major public policy drawback of the Agencyrsquos restructuring

6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study

In the past the Agencyrsquos previous TampR studies by Wilbur Smith Associates have significantly over‐estimated revenues lending to an over‐issuance of debt The Agency retained Stantec Consulting Services Inc to provide a traffic and revenue study to forecast future traffic and revenue generating capability of the Project through 2053 The TampR study also serves as the basis for the rating agencies to provide ratings for the refunding bonds Stantecrsquos Base Case toll schedule projects an average toll revenue growth rate of 455 between 2014 and 2053 with rates of 4 to 9 between now and 2024 based upon projected traffic volume increases and toll rate increases of 25 to 3 on average Despite the TampR consultantrsquos projection of 455 revenue growth the Agency restructured the debt service growth rate at 35 to be conservative

The TampR Consultant assumed the SR 91SR 241 connector is built and provides increased traffic demand on the toll road However while it is anticipated that there will be a fee to enter the 91241 connector no revenue generated from entrance fees to the 91241 connector was included in the forecast Improvements to the I‐5 were included as part of the future year networks The TampR Study assumes the Tesoro Extension and Foothill South projects are not built during the study period

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 10

FINAL July 3 2013

As part of our financial evaluation MDA reviewed the TampR study and developed a list of questions which served as the basis for a call with the TampR consultant on June 18th

Our questions and the TampR consultantrsquos answers are summarized below

Questions Answers

1) The TampR study assumes driving habits will stay essentially the same over the study period Yet one of the observable trends in transportation is that people are driving less to work because of telecommuting ridesharing moving to population centers where public transit is available etc Should the TampR study have addressed this at least in sensitivity

1) This factor is not applicable to Orange County as residents are very dependent on their cars for transportation and options for public transit are not good

2) The elasticity of demand is a major factor in toll revenue projections Two related questions a In the TampR report decreases in demand

are explained primarily by the impact of the recession Do you fell elasticity of demand was given adequate consideration

b The TampR report assumes the impact of elasticity is linear Could you explain that as it seems counterintuitive

2a) Yes this factor is monitored carefully and ten yearsrsquo worth of data is available to analyze

2b) TampR report provides adequate discussion of elasticity of demand

3) Could you explain why a traffic increase is assumed related to the construction of the SR 241SR 91 but no associated revenue

3) For the 91241 connector the anticipated $2 fee to use the connector is not included but increased traffic on the toll road generated from the connector is included in the revenue projections

4) The TampR study does not address whether the driverrsquos value of travel time savings has changed because of the recession Could you address that

4) The value of time saving in the TampR model is based on the 2012 recessionary conditions and thus no further change is needed

5) The Sensitivity Analysis section is fairly short Was any thought given to the impact of competing facilities after the Caltrans non‐compete agreement ends in 2020 Or the elasticity of demand Or testing for changes in the value of travel time savings

5) The 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization scenarios bracket the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities are not needed

6) Was a peer review done or is one contemplated

6) No peer review is planned

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 11

FINAL July 3 2013

The TampR consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case projection and an All‐Electric tolling (AET) The AET projection assumes all electronic tolling will be in place in the summer of 2014 Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for the Base Case and AET revenue projections

1 In addition the TampR consultant estimated the gross annual revenue impact for two additional scenarios (The TampR consultant did not project annual revenues for these two additional scenarios) A 2020 recession which effectively forecasted no economic growth in the next eight years The result was a 27 reduction in revenues for FY 2020

2 A Revenue Maximization projection in which rates at all mainline toll plazas were increased to the point of maximum revenue generation The impact of this scenario was an increase in revenues of 140 in 2035

When asked why more sensitivities were not run the TampR consultant responded that the two additional scenarios (the 2020 recession and the Revenue Maximization) bracketed the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities were not necessary However MDA believes that it is important to understand the impact on the financial model to changes in major variables Therefore we undertook to run our own set of sensitivities which are discussed below

In our view while we do not believe the TampR study is fatally flawed it does suffer from several deficiencies First an insufficient number of sensitivities are considered such as testing such variables as elasticity of demand change in the value of travel savings and the impact of competing facilities This is particularly important as both Moodyrsquos and Fitch note that the projectrsquos toll rates are high relative to its peers Additionally the data provided on the TampR studyrsquos two sensitivities for the 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization is only for one year leaving unexplained what happens before and after that year

Sensitivity Analyses MDA conducted a number of sensitivity analyses to test the impact of various variables in the restructuring These analyses help to determine whether 1) the restructuring is necessary and 2) how a change in the revenue variables might affect the Agencyrsquos financial situation

1 Need for Restructuring

To help determine the need for the restructuring MDA ran debt service coverages under two debt service coverage scenarios

a Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service as it currently exists (please see Exhibit 3 for more details) b Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service after the restructuring (please see Exhibit 1 for more details) c Using no revenue growth with existing debt service and (please see Exhibit 4 for more details) d Using no revenue growth with restructured debt service (please see Exhibit 5 for more details)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 12

FINAL July 3 2013

The results of these scenarios are as follows

Base Case Revenues with Base Case Revenues with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

104x (2016) 136x (2015)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

132x (2039) 346x (2053)

Average Senior Lien Coverage 121x 212x Years Below 13x Coverage 25 0 Years Below 10x Coverage 0 0

No Revenue Growth with No Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

032x (2040) 049x (2053)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage 101x (2014) 138x (2014) Average Senior Lien Coverage 059x 078x Years Below 13x Coverage 26 35 Years Below 10x Coverage 24 30

The larger number of years below the coverage requirement is due to the fact that the final maturity of the bonds is extended with the restructured debt service

Clearly without the restructuring the Agency cannot meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases coverages would soon fall below 100x debt service obligations

Variable Sensitivities To test the sensitivity of a number of important variables on the Agencyrsquos post‐restructuring debt profile MDA ran the following sensitivities

1 amp 2 The TampR Consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case and an All‐Electronic Tolling (ldquoAETrdquo) scenario The only difference between the two projections is a one‐time revenue loss of $45 million in 2014 due to discounts provided to drivers for using electronic tolling The TampR Consultant assumes that no further impact on revenues occurs thereafter Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for additional detail

3 The TampR Consultant also provides the general effect of a 2020 recession by assuming revenues decline from the Base Case to $127270000 in 2020 For the purposes of running our sensitivity we assumed this decrease occurs on a pro rata basis through 2020 and then revenue grows annually thereafter by the same percentage growth as shown in the Base Case Please see Exhibit 6 for additional detail

4 The TampR Consultant observes that based on historical results the elasticity of

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 13

FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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skkQiNBDd_sliDNQgtDNlsiN$QR$d$iNQiqQMdDl$gtl$QpRQksJVQiNgtkOiNltQpOlQNDlQki_il$QlDV gtDMRdiltRlQksJVQsNQNDN$QDBQqOgtRQiNBDd_sliDNQ_sRQp$QgtDMi$QDdQDlR$dJiq$ d$MdDOgt$VQd$MsgtPslt$VQBOdlR$dQldsNq_ill$VQldsNqB$dd$VQiqq$_iNsl$V d$iqldipOl$QDdQd$qDkVQDdQqlDd$QBDdQqOpq$VO$NlQOq$QBDdQsNRQqOgtRQMOdMDq$VQiN JRDk$QDdQiNQMsdlVQiNQsNRQBDd_QDdQ_sNN$dQDdQpRQsNRQ_$sNqQJRslqD$T$dVQpRQsNRQM$dqDN JilRDOlQ_DDRbqQMdiDdQJdill$NQgtDNq$NlIQsmmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQSGfegYO`QGaQ_DDRbq nTStQcSXT9OcQGOmgOoO`QGaQgfQfSQGOQe99XTefOQeY`QTOmgeGmOIQpO9eXcOQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQFXteYQSTQtO9FeYg9emQOTTSTQec POmmQecQSfFOTQne9fSTcVQFSPOoOTVQemmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQampTSog`O`QEsqQiqEQPgfFSXfQPeTTeYfaQSnQeYaQUgY`I _DDRbqQe`SampfcQemmQYO9OcceTaQtOecXTOcQcSQfFefQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQgfQXcOcQgYQeccghYgYhQeQ9TO`gfQTefgYhQgcQSnQcXnng9gOYf QXemgfaQeY`QnTStQcSXT9OcQ_SS`abcQ9SYcg`OTcQfSQGOQTOmgeGmOVQgY9mX`gYhVQPFOYQeampampTSampTgefOVQgY`OampOY`OYfQfFgT`^ampeTfa cSXT9OcIQRSPOoOTVQ_DDRbqQgcQYSfQeYQeX`gfSTQeY`Q9eYYSfQgYQOoOTaQgYcfeY9OQgY`OampOY`OYfmaQoOTgnaQSTQoemg`efO gYnSTtefgSYQTO9OgoO`QgYQfFOQTefgYhQampTS9OccIQOY`OTQYSQ9gT9XtcfeY9OcQcFemmQ_DDRbqQFeoOQeYaQmgeGgmgfaQfSQeYa ampOTcSYQSTQOYfgfaQnSTQAeCQeYaQmSccQSTQ`etehOQgYQPFSmOQSTQgYQampeTfQ9eXcO`QGaVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStVQSTQTOmefgYhQfSVQeYaQOTTST AYOhmghOYfQSTQSfFOTPgcOCQSTQSfFOTQ9gT9XtcfeY9OQSTQ9SYfgYhOY9aQPgfFgYQSTQSXfcg`OQfFOQ9SYfTSmQSnQ_DDRbqQSTQeYaQSn gfcQ`gTO9fSTcVQSnng9OTcVQOtampmSaOOcQSTQehOYfcQgYQ9SYYO9fgSYQPgfFQfFOQampTS9XTOtOYfVQ9SmmO9fgSYVQ9StampgmefgSYVQeYemacgcV gYfOTampTOfefgSYVQ9SttXYg9efgSYVQampXGmg9efgSYQSTQ`OmgoOTaQSnQeYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYVQSTQAGCQeYaQ`gTO9fVQgY`gTO9fVQcampO9gemV 9SYcOQXOYfgemVQ9StampOYcefSTaQSTQgY9g`OYfemQ`etehOcQPFefcSOoOTQAgY9mX`gYhQPgfFSXfQmgtgfefgSYVQmScfQampTSngfcCVQOoOYQgn _DDRbqQgcQe`ogcO`QgYQe`oeY9OQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQcX9FQ`etehOcVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStQfFOQXcOQSnQSTQgYeGgmgfaQfSQXcOV eYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYIQlFOQTefgYhcVQngYeY9gemQTOampSTfgYhQeYemacgcVQampTSHO9fgSYcVQeY`QSfFOTQSGcOToefgSYcVQgnQeYaV 9SYcfgfXfgYhQampeTfQSnQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQeTOVQeY`QtXcfQGOQ9SYcfTXO`QcSmOmaQecVQcfefOtOYfcQSnQSampgYgSY eY`QYSfQcfefOtOYfcQSnQne9fQSTQTO9SttOY`efgSYcQfSQampXT9FecOVQcOmmQSTQFSm`QeYaQcO9XTgfgOcIQ$e9FQXcOTQSnQfFO gYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQtXcfQteUOQgfcQSPYQcfX`aQeY`QOoemXefgSYQSnQOe9FQcO9XTgfaQgfQteaQ9SYcg`OTQampXT9FecgYhV FSm`gYhQSTQcOmmgYhIQNDQJsddsNlRVQ$WMd$qqQDdQi_Mki$VQsqQlDQlR$QsgtgtOdsgtRVQli_$kiN$qqV gtD_Mk$l$N$qqVQ_$dgtRsNlspikilRQDdQBilN$qqQBDdQsNRQMsdligtOksdQMOdMDq$QDBQsNRQqOgtR dsliNltQDdQDlR$dQDMiNiDNQDdQiNBDd_sliDNQiqQltiT$NQDdQ_s$QpRQ_DDRbqQiNQsNRQBDd_QDd _sNN$dQJRslqD$T$dI

_iqVQeQPFSmma^SPYO`Q9TO`gfQTefgYhQehOY9aQcXGcg`geTaQSnQ_SS`abcQgtSTampSTefgSYQAE_gtDECVQFOTOGaQ`gc9mScOcQfFefQtScf gccXOTcQSnQ`OGfQcO9XTgfgOcQAgY9mX`gYhQ9STampSTefOQeY`QtXYg9gampemQGSY`cVQ`OGOYfXTOcVQYSfOcQeY`Q9SttOT9gemQampeampOTCQeY` ampTOnOTTO`QcfS9UQTefO`QGaQ_iqQFeoOVQampTgSTQfSQeccghYtOYfQSnQeYaQTefgYhVQehTOO`QfSQampeaQfSQ_iqQnSTQeampampTegcemQeY`QTefgYh cOTog9OcQTOY`OTO`QGaQgfQnOOcQTeYhgYhQnTStQuZV[[QfSQeampampTSgtefOmaQuV[[V[[[IQ_gtDQeY`Q_iqQemcSQtegYfegYQampSmg9gOc eY`QampTS9O`XTOcQfSQe``TOccQfFOQgY`OampOY`OY9OQSnQ_iqbcQTefgYhcQeY`QTefgYhQampTS9OccOcIQiYnSTtefgSYQTOheT`gYhQ9OTfegY enngmgefgSYcQfFefQteaQOgcfQGOfPOOYQ`gTO9fSTcQSnQ_gtDQeY`QTefO`QOYfgfgOcVQeY`QGOfPOOYQOYfgfgOcQPFSQFSm`QTefgYhcQnTSt _iqQeY`QFeoOQemcSQampXGmg9maQTOampSTfO`QfSQfFOQq$gtQeYQSPYOTcFgampQgYfOTOcfQgYQ_gtDQSnQtSTOQfFeYQNVQgcQampScfO`QeYYXemma efQPPPItSS`acI9StQXY`OTQfFOQFOe`gYhQEqFeTOFSm`OTQdOmefgSYcQXQgtSTampSTefOQltSoOTYeY9OQXQgTO9fSTQeY` qFeTOFSm`OTQsnngmgefgSYQMSmg9aIE

BSTQsXcfTemgeQSYmajQsYaQampXGmg9efgSYQgYfSQsXcfTemgeQSnQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQampXTcXeYfQfSQfFOQsXcfTemgeYQBgYeY9gemQqOTog9Oc kg9OYcOQSnQ_DDRbqQenngmgefOVQ_SS`abcQiYoOcfSTcQqOTog9OQMfaQkgtgfO`QspNQZQ[[]Q]KKQsBqkQ]]KKQeY`ST _SS`abcQsYemafg9cQsXcfTemgeQMfaQkf`QspNQK=QZ[QZ]QKQsBqkQ]]KQAecQeampampmg9eGmOCIQlFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQgYfOY`O` fSQGOQampTSog`O`QSYmaQfSQEPFSmOcemOQ9mgOYfcEQPgfFgYQfFOQtOeYgYhQSnQcO9fgSYQZltQSnQfFOQgtSTampSTefgSYcQs9fQ[[ZIQpa 9SYfgYXgYhQfSQe99OccQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQnTStQPgfFgYQsXcfTemgeVQaSXQTOampTOcOYfQfSQ_DDRbqQfFefQaSXQeTOVQSTQeTO

FINAL July 3 2013

If there is an insufficient amount of 1999 C‐CAB tenders the Agency has an alternative financing structure that will lock in todayrsquos interest rates The Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds and Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds may be issued now to refund the 1999 C‐CABs The taxable bonds will have a lower taxable rate initially and will be callable at par on October 17 2013 Failure to call the Taxable Stepped Coupon Bonds by January 15 2014 will result in an increase in a stepped‐up interest rate on the bonds to a significantly higher penalty rate

To lock in long‐term tax‐exempt rates and provide a funding source to call the taxable bonds on October 17 2013 the long‐term Tax‐Exempt Forward Delivery Bonds will be sold simultaneously with the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds (the interest rate will be set based upon current market levels) but will be delivered on October 17 2013 The Agency assumes the risk that the Forward Delivery bonds fail to be settled and delivered on October 17 2013 but the Agency considers the risk to be somewhat remote

In the unlikely event the Forward Delivery Bonds fail to close the Agency has the option between October 17 2013 and January 15 2014 of refunding the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds by issuing additional tax‐exempt or taxable bonds at the then current interest rates If the Taxable Callable Stepped Coupon Bonds are not called and retired on October 17 2013 by the Forward Delivery Bonds or by other refunding Bonds before January 15 2014 the interest rate on these bonds increases or steps up to the higher penalty rate

MDArsquos view is that the tender structure is a low risk practical means of lowering the Agencyrsquos cost to call the C‐CABS If sufficient tender offers are not received issuing the taxable and Forward Delivery Bonds is a reasonable alternative

4 Use of Callable CABs The restructuring plan includes the use of $270 million of CABs an expensive and controversial type of security that compounds interest and defers interest payments to investors

While CABs must be used with great discretion there is a valuable use for them in certain very specific instances Because of the toll roadrsquos revenue structure and the Agencyrsquos familiarity with the financing structure from previous transactions MDArsquos view is that they are a necessary and appropriate element of this restructuring

MDA did not find any serious flaws with the Agencyrsquos restructuring plan that would require a delay in the proposed timing for the bonds sale currently scheduled for the week of July 8 MDA does recommend however the following revisions to the proposed restructuring plan be considered

1 Under the revised Cooperative Agreement payments to Caltrans will be made from surplus revenues available after Current Expenses and debt payments are made Based

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 9

FINAL July 3 2013

on the pro forma model sufficient surplus revenues are anticipated to make these payments The primary payment risk to Caltrans is that Current Expenses are far greater than anticipated or new debt is issued for the Tesoro Extension or Foothill South Extension without having offsetting revenues Thus because of the potential negative impact on the Agency to meet its future payment obligations to Caltrans Caltrans should modify the Cooperative Agreement in a manner to protect itself and bondholders from dilution of existing revenues for the extension projects For example one way to do this would be to require that none of the bond proceeds or cash flow savings should be used to fund the Foothill South or Tesoro Extension projects without Caltrans being presented with and approving a feasibility and financial plan for these projects

2 To offset the impact on the public of extending toll collection on the project an additional thirteen years a portion of the annual cash flow savings from the restructuring should be devoted to calling the bonds starting with the longest maturities first in order to shorten the time the tolls are in effect According to our calculations if all surplus revenues resulting from the restructuring from 2014 to 2039 were used to call bonds maturing from 2041 to 2053 the tolls could be ended in 2040 as is currently the case Alternatively recognizing the Agencyrsquos need for capital improvement funding setting aside 50 of the cash flow savings from the restructuring would enable the tolling to end in 2046 cutting seven years from the anticipated tolling end in 2053 ameliorating the major public policy drawback of the Agencyrsquos restructuring

6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study

In the past the Agencyrsquos previous TampR studies by Wilbur Smith Associates have significantly over‐estimated revenues lending to an over‐issuance of debt The Agency retained Stantec Consulting Services Inc to provide a traffic and revenue study to forecast future traffic and revenue generating capability of the Project through 2053 The TampR study also serves as the basis for the rating agencies to provide ratings for the refunding bonds Stantecrsquos Base Case toll schedule projects an average toll revenue growth rate of 455 between 2014 and 2053 with rates of 4 to 9 between now and 2024 based upon projected traffic volume increases and toll rate increases of 25 to 3 on average Despite the TampR consultantrsquos projection of 455 revenue growth the Agency restructured the debt service growth rate at 35 to be conservative

The TampR Consultant assumed the SR 91SR 241 connector is built and provides increased traffic demand on the toll road However while it is anticipated that there will be a fee to enter the 91241 connector no revenue generated from entrance fees to the 91241 connector was included in the forecast Improvements to the I‐5 were included as part of the future year networks The TampR Study assumes the Tesoro Extension and Foothill South projects are not built during the study period

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 10

FINAL July 3 2013

As part of our financial evaluation MDA reviewed the TampR study and developed a list of questions which served as the basis for a call with the TampR consultant on June 18th

Our questions and the TampR consultantrsquos answers are summarized below

Questions Answers

1) The TampR study assumes driving habits will stay essentially the same over the study period Yet one of the observable trends in transportation is that people are driving less to work because of telecommuting ridesharing moving to population centers where public transit is available etc Should the TampR study have addressed this at least in sensitivity

1) This factor is not applicable to Orange County as residents are very dependent on their cars for transportation and options for public transit are not good

2) The elasticity of demand is a major factor in toll revenue projections Two related questions a In the TampR report decreases in demand

are explained primarily by the impact of the recession Do you fell elasticity of demand was given adequate consideration

b The TampR report assumes the impact of elasticity is linear Could you explain that as it seems counterintuitive

2a) Yes this factor is monitored carefully and ten yearsrsquo worth of data is available to analyze

2b) TampR report provides adequate discussion of elasticity of demand

3) Could you explain why a traffic increase is assumed related to the construction of the SR 241SR 91 but no associated revenue

3) For the 91241 connector the anticipated $2 fee to use the connector is not included but increased traffic on the toll road generated from the connector is included in the revenue projections

4) The TampR study does not address whether the driverrsquos value of travel time savings has changed because of the recession Could you address that

4) The value of time saving in the TampR model is based on the 2012 recessionary conditions and thus no further change is needed

5) The Sensitivity Analysis section is fairly short Was any thought given to the impact of competing facilities after the Caltrans non‐compete agreement ends in 2020 Or the elasticity of demand Or testing for changes in the value of travel time savings

5) The 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization scenarios bracket the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities are not needed

6) Was a peer review done or is one contemplated

6) No peer review is planned

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 11

FINAL July 3 2013

The TampR consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case projection and an All‐Electric tolling (AET) The AET projection assumes all electronic tolling will be in place in the summer of 2014 Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for the Base Case and AET revenue projections

1 In addition the TampR consultant estimated the gross annual revenue impact for two additional scenarios (The TampR consultant did not project annual revenues for these two additional scenarios) A 2020 recession which effectively forecasted no economic growth in the next eight years The result was a 27 reduction in revenues for FY 2020

2 A Revenue Maximization projection in which rates at all mainline toll plazas were increased to the point of maximum revenue generation The impact of this scenario was an increase in revenues of 140 in 2035

When asked why more sensitivities were not run the TampR consultant responded that the two additional scenarios (the 2020 recession and the Revenue Maximization) bracketed the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities were not necessary However MDA believes that it is important to understand the impact on the financial model to changes in major variables Therefore we undertook to run our own set of sensitivities which are discussed below

In our view while we do not believe the TampR study is fatally flawed it does suffer from several deficiencies First an insufficient number of sensitivities are considered such as testing such variables as elasticity of demand change in the value of travel savings and the impact of competing facilities This is particularly important as both Moodyrsquos and Fitch note that the projectrsquos toll rates are high relative to its peers Additionally the data provided on the TampR studyrsquos two sensitivities for the 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization is only for one year leaving unexplained what happens before and after that year

Sensitivity Analyses MDA conducted a number of sensitivity analyses to test the impact of various variables in the restructuring These analyses help to determine whether 1) the restructuring is necessary and 2) how a change in the revenue variables might affect the Agencyrsquos financial situation

1 Need for Restructuring

To help determine the need for the restructuring MDA ran debt service coverages under two debt service coverage scenarios

a Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service as it currently exists (please see Exhibit 3 for more details) b Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service after the restructuring (please see Exhibit 1 for more details) c Using no revenue growth with existing debt service and (please see Exhibit 4 for more details) d Using no revenue growth with restructured debt service (please see Exhibit 5 for more details)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 12

FINAL July 3 2013

The results of these scenarios are as follows

Base Case Revenues with Base Case Revenues with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

104x (2016) 136x (2015)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

132x (2039) 346x (2053)

Average Senior Lien Coverage 121x 212x Years Below 13x Coverage 25 0 Years Below 10x Coverage 0 0

No Revenue Growth with No Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

032x (2040) 049x (2053)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage 101x (2014) 138x (2014) Average Senior Lien Coverage 059x 078x Years Below 13x Coverage 26 35 Years Below 10x Coverage 24 30

The larger number of years below the coverage requirement is due to the fact that the final maturity of the bonds is extended with the restructured debt service

Clearly without the restructuring the Agency cannot meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases coverages would soon fall below 100x debt service obligations

Variable Sensitivities To test the sensitivity of a number of important variables on the Agencyrsquos post‐restructuring debt profile MDA ran the following sensitivities

1 amp 2 The TampR Consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case and an All‐Electronic Tolling (ldquoAETrdquo) scenario The only difference between the two projections is a one‐time revenue loss of $45 million in 2014 due to discounts provided to drivers for using electronic tolling The TampR Consultant assumes that no further impact on revenues occurs thereafter Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for additional detail

3 The TampR Consultant also provides the general effect of a 2020 recession by assuming revenues decline from the Base Case to $127270000 in 2020 For the purposes of running our sensitivity we assumed this decrease occurs on a pro rata basis through 2020 and then revenue grows annually thereafter by the same percentage growth as shown in the Base Case Please see Exhibit 6 for additional detail

4 The TampR Consultant observes that based on historical results the elasticity of

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 13

FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FINAL July 3 2013

on the pro forma model sufficient surplus revenues are anticipated to make these payments The primary payment risk to Caltrans is that Current Expenses are far greater than anticipated or new debt is issued for the Tesoro Extension or Foothill South Extension without having offsetting revenues Thus because of the potential negative impact on the Agency to meet its future payment obligations to Caltrans Caltrans should modify the Cooperative Agreement in a manner to protect itself and bondholders from dilution of existing revenues for the extension projects For example one way to do this would be to require that none of the bond proceeds or cash flow savings should be used to fund the Foothill South or Tesoro Extension projects without Caltrans being presented with and approving a feasibility and financial plan for these projects

2 To offset the impact on the public of extending toll collection on the project an additional thirteen years a portion of the annual cash flow savings from the restructuring should be devoted to calling the bonds starting with the longest maturities first in order to shorten the time the tolls are in effect According to our calculations if all surplus revenues resulting from the restructuring from 2014 to 2039 were used to call bonds maturing from 2041 to 2053 the tolls could be ended in 2040 as is currently the case Alternatively recognizing the Agencyrsquos need for capital improvement funding setting aside 50 of the cash flow savings from the restructuring would enable the tolling to end in 2046 cutting seven years from the anticipated tolling end in 2053 ameliorating the major public policy drawback of the Agencyrsquos restructuring

6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study

In the past the Agencyrsquos previous TampR studies by Wilbur Smith Associates have significantly over‐estimated revenues lending to an over‐issuance of debt The Agency retained Stantec Consulting Services Inc to provide a traffic and revenue study to forecast future traffic and revenue generating capability of the Project through 2053 The TampR study also serves as the basis for the rating agencies to provide ratings for the refunding bonds Stantecrsquos Base Case toll schedule projects an average toll revenue growth rate of 455 between 2014 and 2053 with rates of 4 to 9 between now and 2024 based upon projected traffic volume increases and toll rate increases of 25 to 3 on average Despite the TampR consultantrsquos projection of 455 revenue growth the Agency restructured the debt service growth rate at 35 to be conservative

The TampR Consultant assumed the SR 91SR 241 connector is built and provides increased traffic demand on the toll road However while it is anticipated that there will be a fee to enter the 91241 connector no revenue generated from entrance fees to the 91241 connector was included in the forecast Improvements to the I‐5 were included as part of the future year networks The TampR Study assumes the Tesoro Extension and Foothill South projects are not built during the study period

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 10

FINAL July 3 2013

As part of our financial evaluation MDA reviewed the TampR study and developed a list of questions which served as the basis for a call with the TampR consultant on June 18th

Our questions and the TampR consultantrsquos answers are summarized below

Questions Answers

1) The TampR study assumes driving habits will stay essentially the same over the study period Yet one of the observable trends in transportation is that people are driving less to work because of telecommuting ridesharing moving to population centers where public transit is available etc Should the TampR study have addressed this at least in sensitivity

1) This factor is not applicable to Orange County as residents are very dependent on their cars for transportation and options for public transit are not good

2) The elasticity of demand is a major factor in toll revenue projections Two related questions a In the TampR report decreases in demand

are explained primarily by the impact of the recession Do you fell elasticity of demand was given adequate consideration

b The TampR report assumes the impact of elasticity is linear Could you explain that as it seems counterintuitive

2a) Yes this factor is monitored carefully and ten yearsrsquo worth of data is available to analyze

2b) TampR report provides adequate discussion of elasticity of demand

3) Could you explain why a traffic increase is assumed related to the construction of the SR 241SR 91 but no associated revenue

3) For the 91241 connector the anticipated $2 fee to use the connector is not included but increased traffic on the toll road generated from the connector is included in the revenue projections

4) The TampR study does not address whether the driverrsquos value of travel time savings has changed because of the recession Could you address that

4) The value of time saving in the TampR model is based on the 2012 recessionary conditions and thus no further change is needed

5) The Sensitivity Analysis section is fairly short Was any thought given to the impact of competing facilities after the Caltrans non‐compete agreement ends in 2020 Or the elasticity of demand Or testing for changes in the value of travel time savings

5) The 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization scenarios bracket the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities are not needed

6) Was a peer review done or is one contemplated

6) No peer review is planned

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 11

FINAL July 3 2013

The TampR consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case projection and an All‐Electric tolling (AET) The AET projection assumes all electronic tolling will be in place in the summer of 2014 Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for the Base Case and AET revenue projections

1 In addition the TampR consultant estimated the gross annual revenue impact for two additional scenarios (The TampR consultant did not project annual revenues for these two additional scenarios) A 2020 recession which effectively forecasted no economic growth in the next eight years The result was a 27 reduction in revenues for FY 2020

2 A Revenue Maximization projection in which rates at all mainline toll plazas were increased to the point of maximum revenue generation The impact of this scenario was an increase in revenues of 140 in 2035

When asked why more sensitivities were not run the TampR consultant responded that the two additional scenarios (the 2020 recession and the Revenue Maximization) bracketed the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities were not necessary However MDA believes that it is important to understand the impact on the financial model to changes in major variables Therefore we undertook to run our own set of sensitivities which are discussed below

In our view while we do not believe the TampR study is fatally flawed it does suffer from several deficiencies First an insufficient number of sensitivities are considered such as testing such variables as elasticity of demand change in the value of travel savings and the impact of competing facilities This is particularly important as both Moodyrsquos and Fitch note that the projectrsquos toll rates are high relative to its peers Additionally the data provided on the TampR studyrsquos two sensitivities for the 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization is only for one year leaving unexplained what happens before and after that year

Sensitivity Analyses MDA conducted a number of sensitivity analyses to test the impact of various variables in the restructuring These analyses help to determine whether 1) the restructuring is necessary and 2) how a change in the revenue variables might affect the Agencyrsquos financial situation

1 Need for Restructuring

To help determine the need for the restructuring MDA ran debt service coverages under two debt service coverage scenarios

a Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service as it currently exists (please see Exhibit 3 for more details) b Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service after the restructuring (please see Exhibit 1 for more details) c Using no revenue growth with existing debt service and (please see Exhibit 4 for more details) d Using no revenue growth with restructured debt service (please see Exhibit 5 for more details)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 12

FINAL July 3 2013

The results of these scenarios are as follows

Base Case Revenues with Base Case Revenues with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

104x (2016) 136x (2015)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

132x (2039) 346x (2053)

Average Senior Lien Coverage 121x 212x Years Below 13x Coverage 25 0 Years Below 10x Coverage 0 0

No Revenue Growth with No Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

032x (2040) 049x (2053)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage 101x (2014) 138x (2014) Average Senior Lien Coverage 059x 078x Years Below 13x Coverage 26 35 Years Below 10x Coverage 24 30

The larger number of years below the coverage requirement is due to the fact that the final maturity of the bonds is extended with the restructured debt service

Clearly without the restructuring the Agency cannot meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases coverages would soon fall below 100x debt service obligations

Variable Sensitivities To test the sensitivity of a number of important variables on the Agencyrsquos post‐restructuring debt profile MDA ran the following sensitivities

1 amp 2 The TampR Consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case and an All‐Electronic Tolling (ldquoAETrdquo) scenario The only difference between the two projections is a one‐time revenue loss of $45 million in 2014 due to discounts provided to drivers for using electronic tolling The TampR Consultant assumes that no further impact on revenues occurs thereafter Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for additional detail

3 The TampR Consultant also provides the general effect of a 2020 recession by assuming revenues decline from the Base Case to $127270000 in 2020 For the purposes of running our sensitivity we assumed this decrease occurs on a pro rata basis through 2020 and then revenue grows annually thereafter by the same percentage growth as shown in the Base Case Please see Exhibit 6 for additional detail

4 The TampR Consultant observes that based on historical results the elasticity of

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 13

FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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mRunXvXRYvXYUhXXhhZunXb[X]SSn[`hXXYuhvSRhXhuRXmulXXYmxX]^]Xh^_XYYnXXvhXYssX XYvuhXYRu]SSn[`hXmZRRuYvXSaXYXSYhXSsXvbuXRu`YvXuXsZvZRuXmRunXvXRXhcXSsXuYvXvXuhlXmRunXvmS]]Xv]uYvhlXSRXnubvXSRXnubvV XcuXhumZRXvXuhlXYYnXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnXRuhuYRmbaZb XmYvXSYhXaZb XhbunXb[X]SSn[`hX]^]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYh^_X]Y[XXYm`ZnuX]SSn[`hmZRRuYvXSaXYXSYhXSsXvbuXRu`YvXuXsZvZRuXmRunXvXRXhcXSsXuYvXvXuhlXmRunXvXmS]]Xv]uYvhlSRXnubvXSRXnubvV XcuXhumZRXvXuhxX]SSn[`hXnusXYuhXmRunXvXRXhcXYhXvbuXRXhcXvbYvXYYuYvXv[X]Y[XYSvX]uuvXXvhXmSYvRYmvZY lXsXYYYmXY XSb XUYvXSYhXYhXvbu[XmS]uXnZuXYYnXYY[uhvX]YvunXsXYYYmXY X`ShhXXYXvbuXuuYvXSsXnusYZ`vxXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXnSXYSvXYnnRuhhXYY[SvbuRXRXhclXXYm`ZnXYUXbZvXYSvX X]XvunXvSX XdZXnXv[XRXhclX]YRcuvXY`ZuXRXhclXSRXaRXmuS`YvX Xv[xXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnX]SSn[`hXSaXYXSYhXXYm`ZnunXXYX]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYhXYRuYSvXhvYvu]uYvhXSsXmZRRuYvXSRXbXhvSRXmY XsYmvxXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnX]SSn[`haZb XmYvXSYhXnSXYSvXmSYhvXvZvuXSRXaRSXnuXXYuhv]uYvXSRXsXYYYmXY XYnXmulXYYn

mRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnX]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYhXYRuXYSvXYYnXnSXYSvXaRSXnuRumS]]uYnYvXSYhXvSXaZRmbYhulXhu` lXSRXbS`nXaYRvXmZ`YRXhumZRXvXuhxXYuXvbuRXmRunXvRYvXYUhXYSRX]SSn[`hXaZb XmYvXSYhXmS]]uYvXSYXvbuXhZXvYbX Xv[XSsXYYXXYuhv]uYvXsSRYY[XaYRvXmZ`YRXXYuhvSRxX]SSn[`hXXhhZuhXXvhXmRunXvXRYvXYUhXYYnXaZb XhbuhX]SSn[`haZb XmYvXSYhXeXvbXvbuXufaumvYvXSYXYYnXZYnuRhvYYnXYUXvbYvXuYmbXXYuhvSRXeX` X]YcuXvhXSeYXhvZn[XYYnXuY`ZYvXSYXSsXuYmbXhumZRXv[XvbYvXXhXZYnuRXmSYhXnuRYvXSYXsSRaZRmbYhulXbS`nXYUlXSRXhY`ux

skkQiNBDd_sliDNQgtDNlsiN$QR$d$iNQiqQMdDl$gtl$QpRQksJVQiNgtkOiNltQpOlQNDlQki_il$QlDV gtDMRdiltRlQksJVQsNQNDN$QDBQqOgtRQiNBDd_sliDNQ_sRQp$QgtDMi$QDdQDlR$dJiq$ d$MdDOgt$VQd$MsgtPslt$VQBOdlR$dQldsNq_ill$VQldsNqB$dd$VQiqq$_iNsl$V d$iqldipOl$QDdQd$qDkVQDdQqlDd$QBDdQqOpq$VO$NlQOq$QBDdQsNRQqOgtRQMOdMDq$VQiN JRDk$QDdQiNQMsdlVQiNQsNRQBDd_QDdQ_sNN$dQDdQpRQsNRQ_$sNqQJRslqD$T$dVQpRQsNRQM$dqDN JilRDOlQ_DDRbqQMdiDdQJdill$NQgtDNq$NlIQsmmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQSGfegYO`QGaQ_DDRbq nTStQcSXT9OcQGOmgOoO`QGaQgfQfSQGOQe99XTefOQeY`QTOmgeGmOIQpO9eXcOQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQFXteYQSTQtO9FeYg9emQOTTSTQec POmmQecQSfFOTQne9fSTcVQFSPOoOTVQemmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQampTSog`O`QEsqQiqEQPgfFSXfQPeTTeYfaQSnQeYaQUgY`I _DDRbqQe`SampfcQemmQYO9OcceTaQtOecXTOcQcSQfFefQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQgfQXcOcQgYQeccghYgYhQeQ9TO`gfQTefgYhQgcQSnQcXnng9gOYf QXemgfaQeY`QnTStQcSXT9OcQ_SS`abcQ9SYcg`OTcQfSQGOQTOmgeGmOVQgY9mX`gYhVQPFOYQeampampTSampTgefOVQgY`OampOY`OYfQfFgT`^ampeTfa cSXT9OcIQRSPOoOTVQ_DDRbqQgcQYSfQeYQeX`gfSTQeY`Q9eYYSfQgYQOoOTaQgYcfeY9OQgY`OampOY`OYfmaQoOTgnaQSTQoemg`efO gYnSTtefgSYQTO9OgoO`QgYQfFOQTefgYhQampTS9OccIQOY`OTQYSQ9gT9XtcfeY9OcQcFemmQ_DDRbqQFeoOQeYaQmgeGgmgfaQfSQeYa ampOTcSYQSTQOYfgfaQnSTQAeCQeYaQmSccQSTQ`etehOQgYQPFSmOQSTQgYQampeTfQ9eXcO`QGaVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStVQSTQTOmefgYhQfSVQeYaQOTTST AYOhmghOYfQSTQSfFOTPgcOCQSTQSfFOTQ9gT9XtcfeY9OQSTQ9SYfgYhOY9aQPgfFgYQSTQSXfcg`OQfFOQ9SYfTSmQSnQ_DDRbqQSTQeYaQSn gfcQ`gTO9fSTcVQSnng9OTcVQOtampmSaOOcQSTQehOYfcQgYQ9SYYO9fgSYQPgfFQfFOQampTS9XTOtOYfVQ9SmmO9fgSYVQ9StampgmefgSYVQeYemacgcV gYfOTampTOfefgSYVQ9SttXYg9efgSYVQampXGmg9efgSYQSTQ`OmgoOTaQSnQeYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYVQSTQAGCQeYaQ`gTO9fVQgY`gTO9fVQcampO9gemV 9SYcOQXOYfgemVQ9StampOYcefSTaQSTQgY9g`OYfemQ`etehOcQPFefcSOoOTQAgY9mX`gYhQPgfFSXfQmgtgfefgSYVQmScfQampTSngfcCVQOoOYQgn _DDRbqQgcQe`ogcO`QgYQe`oeY9OQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQcX9FQ`etehOcVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStQfFOQXcOQSnQSTQgYeGgmgfaQfSQXcOV eYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYIQlFOQTefgYhcVQngYeY9gemQTOampSTfgYhQeYemacgcVQampTSHO9fgSYcVQeY`QSfFOTQSGcOToefgSYcVQgnQeYaV 9SYcfgfXfgYhQampeTfQSnQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQeTOVQeY`QtXcfQGOQ9SYcfTXO`QcSmOmaQecVQcfefOtOYfcQSnQSampgYgSY eY`QYSfQcfefOtOYfcQSnQne9fQSTQTO9SttOY`efgSYcQfSQampXT9FecOVQcOmmQSTQFSm`QeYaQcO9XTgfgOcIQ$e9FQXcOTQSnQfFO gYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQtXcfQteUOQgfcQSPYQcfX`aQeY`QOoemXefgSYQSnQOe9FQcO9XTgfaQgfQteaQ9SYcg`OTQampXT9FecgYhV FSm`gYhQSTQcOmmgYhIQNDQJsddsNlRVQ$WMd$qqQDdQi_Mki$VQsqQlDQlR$QsgtgtOdsgtRVQli_$kiN$qqV gtD_Mk$l$N$qqVQ_$dgtRsNlspikilRQDdQBilN$qqQBDdQsNRQMsdligtOksdQMOdMDq$QDBQsNRQqOgtR dsliNltQDdQDlR$dQDMiNiDNQDdQiNBDd_sliDNQiqQltiT$NQDdQ_s$QpRQ_DDRbqQiNQsNRQBDd_QDd _sNN$dQJRslqD$T$dI

_iqVQeQPFSmma^SPYO`Q9TO`gfQTefgYhQehOY9aQcXGcg`geTaQSnQ_SS`abcQgtSTampSTefgSYQAE_gtDECVQFOTOGaQ`gc9mScOcQfFefQtScf gccXOTcQSnQ`OGfQcO9XTgfgOcQAgY9mX`gYhQ9STampSTefOQeY`QtXYg9gampemQGSY`cVQ`OGOYfXTOcVQYSfOcQeY`Q9SttOT9gemQampeampOTCQeY` ampTOnOTTO`QcfS9UQTefO`QGaQ_iqQFeoOVQampTgSTQfSQeccghYtOYfQSnQeYaQTefgYhVQehTOO`QfSQampeaQfSQ_iqQnSTQeampampTegcemQeY`QTefgYh cOTog9OcQTOY`OTO`QGaQgfQnOOcQTeYhgYhQnTStQuZV[[QfSQeampampTSgtefOmaQuV[[V[[[IQ_gtDQeY`Q_iqQemcSQtegYfegYQampSmg9gOc eY`QampTS9O`XTOcQfSQe``TOccQfFOQgY`OampOY`OY9OQSnQ_iqbcQTefgYhcQeY`QTefgYhQampTS9OccOcIQiYnSTtefgSYQTOheT`gYhQ9OTfegY enngmgefgSYcQfFefQteaQOgcfQGOfPOOYQ`gTO9fSTcQSnQ_gtDQeY`QTefO`QOYfgfgOcVQeY`QGOfPOOYQOYfgfgOcQPFSQFSm`QTefgYhcQnTSt _iqQeY`QFeoOQemcSQampXGmg9maQTOampSTfO`QfSQfFOQq$gtQeYQSPYOTcFgampQgYfOTOcfQgYQ_gtDQSnQtSTOQfFeYQNVQgcQampScfO`QeYYXemma efQPPPItSS`acI9StQXY`OTQfFOQFOe`gYhQEqFeTOFSm`OTQdOmefgSYcQXQgtSTampSTefOQltSoOTYeY9OQXQgTO9fSTQeY` qFeTOFSm`OTQsnngmgefgSYQMSmg9aIE

BSTQsXcfTemgeQSYmajQsYaQampXGmg9efgSYQgYfSQsXcfTemgeQSnQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQampXTcXeYfQfSQfFOQsXcfTemgeYQBgYeY9gemQqOTog9Oc kg9OYcOQSnQ_DDRbqQenngmgefOVQ_SS`abcQiYoOcfSTcQqOTog9OQMfaQkgtgfO`QspNQZQ[[]Q]KKQsBqkQ]]KKQeY`ST _SS`abcQsYemafg9cQsXcfTemgeQMfaQkf`QspNQK=QZ[QZ]QKQsBqkQ]]KQAecQeampampmg9eGmOCIQlFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQgYfOY`O` fSQGOQampTSog`O`QSYmaQfSQEPFSmOcemOQ9mgOYfcEQPgfFgYQfFOQtOeYgYhQSnQcO9fgSYQZltQSnQfFOQgtSTampSTefgSYcQs9fQ[[ZIQpa 9SYfgYXgYhQfSQe99OccQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQnTStQPgfFgYQsXcfTemgeVQaSXQTOampTOcOYfQfSQ_DDRbqQfFefQaSXQeTOVQSTQeTO

FINAL July 3 2013

As part of our financial evaluation MDA reviewed the TampR study and developed a list of questions which served as the basis for a call with the TampR consultant on June 18th

Our questions and the TampR consultantrsquos answers are summarized below

Questions Answers

1) The TampR study assumes driving habits will stay essentially the same over the study period Yet one of the observable trends in transportation is that people are driving less to work because of telecommuting ridesharing moving to population centers where public transit is available etc Should the TampR study have addressed this at least in sensitivity

1) This factor is not applicable to Orange County as residents are very dependent on their cars for transportation and options for public transit are not good

2) The elasticity of demand is a major factor in toll revenue projections Two related questions a In the TampR report decreases in demand

are explained primarily by the impact of the recession Do you fell elasticity of demand was given adequate consideration

b The TampR report assumes the impact of elasticity is linear Could you explain that as it seems counterintuitive

2a) Yes this factor is monitored carefully and ten yearsrsquo worth of data is available to analyze

2b) TampR report provides adequate discussion of elasticity of demand

3) Could you explain why a traffic increase is assumed related to the construction of the SR 241SR 91 but no associated revenue

3) For the 91241 connector the anticipated $2 fee to use the connector is not included but increased traffic on the toll road generated from the connector is included in the revenue projections

4) The TampR study does not address whether the driverrsquos value of travel time savings has changed because of the recession Could you address that

4) The value of time saving in the TampR model is based on the 2012 recessionary conditions and thus no further change is needed

5) The Sensitivity Analysis section is fairly short Was any thought given to the impact of competing facilities after the Caltrans non‐compete agreement ends in 2020 Or the elasticity of demand Or testing for changes in the value of travel time savings

5) The 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization scenarios bracket the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities are not needed

6) Was a peer review done or is one contemplated

6) No peer review is planned

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 11

FINAL July 3 2013

The TampR consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case projection and an All‐Electric tolling (AET) The AET projection assumes all electronic tolling will be in place in the summer of 2014 Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for the Base Case and AET revenue projections

1 In addition the TampR consultant estimated the gross annual revenue impact for two additional scenarios (The TampR consultant did not project annual revenues for these two additional scenarios) A 2020 recession which effectively forecasted no economic growth in the next eight years The result was a 27 reduction in revenues for FY 2020

2 A Revenue Maximization projection in which rates at all mainline toll plazas were increased to the point of maximum revenue generation The impact of this scenario was an increase in revenues of 140 in 2035

When asked why more sensitivities were not run the TampR consultant responded that the two additional scenarios (the 2020 recession and the Revenue Maximization) bracketed the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities were not necessary However MDA believes that it is important to understand the impact on the financial model to changes in major variables Therefore we undertook to run our own set of sensitivities which are discussed below

In our view while we do not believe the TampR study is fatally flawed it does suffer from several deficiencies First an insufficient number of sensitivities are considered such as testing such variables as elasticity of demand change in the value of travel savings and the impact of competing facilities This is particularly important as both Moodyrsquos and Fitch note that the projectrsquos toll rates are high relative to its peers Additionally the data provided on the TampR studyrsquos two sensitivities for the 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization is only for one year leaving unexplained what happens before and after that year

Sensitivity Analyses MDA conducted a number of sensitivity analyses to test the impact of various variables in the restructuring These analyses help to determine whether 1) the restructuring is necessary and 2) how a change in the revenue variables might affect the Agencyrsquos financial situation

1 Need for Restructuring

To help determine the need for the restructuring MDA ran debt service coverages under two debt service coverage scenarios

a Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service as it currently exists (please see Exhibit 3 for more details) b Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service after the restructuring (please see Exhibit 1 for more details) c Using no revenue growth with existing debt service and (please see Exhibit 4 for more details) d Using no revenue growth with restructured debt service (please see Exhibit 5 for more details)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 12

FINAL July 3 2013

The results of these scenarios are as follows

Base Case Revenues with Base Case Revenues with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

104x (2016) 136x (2015)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

132x (2039) 346x (2053)

Average Senior Lien Coverage 121x 212x Years Below 13x Coverage 25 0 Years Below 10x Coverage 0 0

No Revenue Growth with No Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

032x (2040) 049x (2053)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage 101x (2014) 138x (2014) Average Senior Lien Coverage 059x 078x Years Below 13x Coverage 26 35 Years Below 10x Coverage 24 30

The larger number of years below the coverage requirement is due to the fact that the final maturity of the bonds is extended with the restructured debt service

Clearly without the restructuring the Agency cannot meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases coverages would soon fall below 100x debt service obligations

Variable Sensitivities To test the sensitivity of a number of important variables on the Agencyrsquos post‐restructuring debt profile MDA ran the following sensitivities

1 amp 2 The TampR Consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case and an All‐Electronic Tolling (ldquoAETrdquo) scenario The only difference between the two projections is a one‐time revenue loss of $45 million in 2014 due to discounts provided to drivers for using electronic tolling The TampR Consultant assumes that no further impact on revenues occurs thereafter Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for additional detail

3 The TampR Consultant also provides the general effect of a 2020 recession by assuming revenues decline from the Base Case to $127270000 in 2020 For the purposes of running our sensitivity we assumed this decrease occurs on a pro rata basis through 2020 and then revenue grows annually thereafter by the same percentage growth as shown in the Base Case Please see Exhibit 6 for additional detail

4 The TampR Consultant observes that based on historical results the elasticity of

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 13

FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FINAL July 3 2013

The TampR consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case projection and an All‐Electric tolling (AET) The AET projection assumes all electronic tolling will be in place in the summer of 2014 Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for the Base Case and AET revenue projections

1 In addition the TampR consultant estimated the gross annual revenue impact for two additional scenarios (The TampR consultant did not project annual revenues for these two additional scenarios) A 2020 recession which effectively forecasted no economic growth in the next eight years The result was a 27 reduction in revenues for FY 2020

2 A Revenue Maximization projection in which rates at all mainline toll plazas were increased to the point of maximum revenue generation The impact of this scenario was an increase in revenues of 140 in 2035

When asked why more sensitivities were not run the TampR consultant responded that the two additional scenarios (the 2020 recession and the Revenue Maximization) bracketed the best and worst cases so additional sensitivities were not necessary However MDA believes that it is important to understand the impact on the financial model to changes in major variables Therefore we undertook to run our own set of sensitivities which are discussed below

In our view while we do not believe the TampR study is fatally flawed it does suffer from several deficiencies First an insufficient number of sensitivities are considered such as testing such variables as elasticity of demand change in the value of travel savings and the impact of competing facilities This is particularly important as both Moodyrsquos and Fitch note that the projectrsquos toll rates are high relative to its peers Additionally the data provided on the TampR studyrsquos two sensitivities for the 2020 Recession and Revenue Maximization is only for one year leaving unexplained what happens before and after that year

Sensitivity Analyses MDA conducted a number of sensitivity analyses to test the impact of various variables in the restructuring These analyses help to determine whether 1) the restructuring is necessary and 2) how a change in the revenue variables might affect the Agencyrsquos financial situation

1 Need for Restructuring

To help determine the need for the restructuring MDA ran debt service coverages under two debt service coverage scenarios

a Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service as it currently exists (please see Exhibit 3 for more details) b Using the TampR Consultantrsquos Base Case revenue projections with debt service after the restructuring (please see Exhibit 1 for more details) c Using no revenue growth with existing debt service and (please see Exhibit 4 for more details) d Using no revenue growth with restructured debt service (please see Exhibit 5 for more details)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 12

FINAL July 3 2013

The results of these scenarios are as follows

Base Case Revenues with Base Case Revenues with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

104x (2016) 136x (2015)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

132x (2039) 346x (2053)

Average Senior Lien Coverage 121x 212x Years Below 13x Coverage 25 0 Years Below 10x Coverage 0 0

No Revenue Growth with No Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

032x (2040) 049x (2053)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage 101x (2014) 138x (2014) Average Senior Lien Coverage 059x 078x Years Below 13x Coverage 26 35 Years Below 10x Coverage 24 30

The larger number of years below the coverage requirement is due to the fact that the final maturity of the bonds is extended with the restructured debt service

Clearly without the restructuring the Agency cannot meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases coverages would soon fall below 100x debt service obligations

Variable Sensitivities To test the sensitivity of a number of important variables on the Agencyrsquos post‐restructuring debt profile MDA ran the following sensitivities

1 amp 2 The TampR Consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case and an All‐Electronic Tolling (ldquoAETrdquo) scenario The only difference between the two projections is a one‐time revenue loss of $45 million in 2014 due to discounts provided to drivers for using electronic tolling The TampR Consultant assumes that no further impact on revenues occurs thereafter Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for additional detail

3 The TampR Consultant also provides the general effect of a 2020 recession by assuming revenues decline from the Base Case to $127270000 in 2020 For the purposes of running our sensitivity we assumed this decrease occurs on a pro rata basis through 2020 and then revenue grows annually thereafter by the same percentage growth as shown in the Base Case Please see Exhibit 6 for additional detail

4 The TampR Consultant observes that based on historical results the elasticity of

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 13

FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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skkQiNBDd_sliDNQgtDNlsiN$QR$d$iNQiqQMdDl$gtl$QpRQksJVQiNgtkOiNltQpOlQNDlQki_il$QlDV gtDMRdiltRlQksJVQsNQNDN$QDBQqOgtRQiNBDd_sliDNQ_sRQp$QgtDMi$QDdQDlR$dJiq$ d$MdDOgt$VQd$MsgtPslt$VQBOdlR$dQldsNq_ill$VQldsNqB$dd$VQiqq$_iNsl$V d$iqldipOl$QDdQd$qDkVQDdQqlDd$QBDdQqOpq$VO$NlQOq$QBDdQsNRQqOgtRQMOdMDq$VQiN JRDk$QDdQiNQMsdlVQiNQsNRQBDd_QDdQ_sNN$dQDdQpRQsNRQ_$sNqQJRslqD$T$dVQpRQsNRQM$dqDN JilRDOlQ_DDRbqQMdiDdQJdill$NQgtDNq$NlIQsmmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQSGfegYO`QGaQ_DDRbq nTStQcSXT9OcQGOmgOoO`QGaQgfQfSQGOQe99XTefOQeY`QTOmgeGmOIQpO9eXcOQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQFXteYQSTQtO9FeYg9emQOTTSTQec POmmQecQSfFOTQne9fSTcVQFSPOoOTVQemmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQampTSog`O`QEsqQiqEQPgfFSXfQPeTTeYfaQSnQeYaQUgY`I _DDRbqQe`SampfcQemmQYO9OcceTaQtOecXTOcQcSQfFefQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQgfQXcOcQgYQeccghYgYhQeQ9TO`gfQTefgYhQgcQSnQcXnng9gOYf QXemgfaQeY`QnTStQcSXT9OcQ_SS`abcQ9SYcg`OTcQfSQGOQTOmgeGmOVQgY9mX`gYhVQPFOYQeampampTSampTgefOVQgY`OampOY`OYfQfFgT`^ampeTfa cSXT9OcIQRSPOoOTVQ_DDRbqQgcQYSfQeYQeX`gfSTQeY`Q9eYYSfQgYQOoOTaQgYcfeY9OQgY`OampOY`OYfmaQoOTgnaQSTQoemg`efO gYnSTtefgSYQTO9OgoO`QgYQfFOQTefgYhQampTS9OccIQOY`OTQYSQ9gT9XtcfeY9OcQcFemmQ_DDRbqQFeoOQeYaQmgeGgmgfaQfSQeYa ampOTcSYQSTQOYfgfaQnSTQAeCQeYaQmSccQSTQ`etehOQgYQPFSmOQSTQgYQampeTfQ9eXcO`QGaVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStVQSTQTOmefgYhQfSVQeYaQOTTST AYOhmghOYfQSTQSfFOTPgcOCQSTQSfFOTQ9gT9XtcfeY9OQSTQ9SYfgYhOY9aQPgfFgYQSTQSXfcg`OQfFOQ9SYfTSmQSnQ_DDRbqQSTQeYaQSn gfcQ`gTO9fSTcVQSnng9OTcVQOtampmSaOOcQSTQehOYfcQgYQ9SYYO9fgSYQPgfFQfFOQampTS9XTOtOYfVQ9SmmO9fgSYVQ9StampgmefgSYVQeYemacgcV gYfOTampTOfefgSYVQ9SttXYg9efgSYVQampXGmg9efgSYQSTQ`OmgoOTaQSnQeYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYVQSTQAGCQeYaQ`gTO9fVQgY`gTO9fVQcampO9gemV 9SYcOQXOYfgemVQ9StampOYcefSTaQSTQgY9g`OYfemQ`etehOcQPFefcSOoOTQAgY9mX`gYhQPgfFSXfQmgtgfefgSYVQmScfQampTSngfcCVQOoOYQgn _DDRbqQgcQe`ogcO`QgYQe`oeY9OQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQcX9FQ`etehOcVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStQfFOQXcOQSnQSTQgYeGgmgfaQfSQXcOV eYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYIQlFOQTefgYhcVQngYeY9gemQTOampSTfgYhQeYemacgcVQampTSHO9fgSYcVQeY`QSfFOTQSGcOToefgSYcVQgnQeYaV 9SYcfgfXfgYhQampeTfQSnQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQeTOVQeY`QtXcfQGOQ9SYcfTXO`QcSmOmaQecVQcfefOtOYfcQSnQSampgYgSY eY`QYSfQcfefOtOYfcQSnQne9fQSTQTO9SttOY`efgSYcQfSQampXT9FecOVQcOmmQSTQFSm`QeYaQcO9XTgfgOcIQ$e9FQXcOTQSnQfFO gYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQtXcfQteUOQgfcQSPYQcfX`aQeY`QOoemXefgSYQSnQOe9FQcO9XTgfaQgfQteaQ9SYcg`OTQampXT9FecgYhV FSm`gYhQSTQcOmmgYhIQNDQJsddsNlRVQ$WMd$qqQDdQi_Mki$VQsqQlDQlR$QsgtgtOdsgtRVQli_$kiN$qqV gtD_Mk$l$N$qqVQ_$dgtRsNlspikilRQDdQBilN$qqQBDdQsNRQMsdligtOksdQMOdMDq$QDBQsNRQqOgtR dsliNltQDdQDlR$dQDMiNiDNQDdQiNBDd_sliDNQiqQltiT$NQDdQ_s$QpRQ_DDRbqQiNQsNRQBDd_QDd _sNN$dQJRslqD$T$dI

_iqVQeQPFSmma^SPYO`Q9TO`gfQTefgYhQehOY9aQcXGcg`geTaQSnQ_SS`abcQgtSTampSTefgSYQAE_gtDECVQFOTOGaQ`gc9mScOcQfFefQtScf gccXOTcQSnQ`OGfQcO9XTgfgOcQAgY9mX`gYhQ9STampSTefOQeY`QtXYg9gampemQGSY`cVQ`OGOYfXTOcVQYSfOcQeY`Q9SttOT9gemQampeampOTCQeY` ampTOnOTTO`QcfS9UQTefO`QGaQ_iqQFeoOVQampTgSTQfSQeccghYtOYfQSnQeYaQTefgYhVQehTOO`QfSQampeaQfSQ_iqQnSTQeampampTegcemQeY`QTefgYh cOTog9OcQTOY`OTO`QGaQgfQnOOcQTeYhgYhQnTStQuZV[[QfSQeampampTSgtefOmaQuV[[V[[[IQ_gtDQeY`Q_iqQemcSQtegYfegYQampSmg9gOc eY`QampTS9O`XTOcQfSQe``TOccQfFOQgY`OampOY`OY9OQSnQ_iqbcQTefgYhcQeY`QTefgYhQampTS9OccOcIQiYnSTtefgSYQTOheT`gYhQ9OTfegY enngmgefgSYcQfFefQteaQOgcfQGOfPOOYQ`gTO9fSTcQSnQ_gtDQeY`QTefO`QOYfgfgOcVQeY`QGOfPOOYQOYfgfgOcQPFSQFSm`QTefgYhcQnTSt _iqQeY`QFeoOQemcSQampXGmg9maQTOampSTfO`QfSQfFOQq$gtQeYQSPYOTcFgampQgYfOTOcfQgYQ_gtDQSnQtSTOQfFeYQNVQgcQampScfO`QeYYXemma efQPPPItSS`acI9StQXY`OTQfFOQFOe`gYhQEqFeTOFSm`OTQdOmefgSYcQXQgtSTampSTefOQltSoOTYeY9OQXQgTO9fSTQeY` qFeTOFSm`OTQsnngmgefgSYQMSmg9aIE

BSTQsXcfTemgeQSYmajQsYaQampXGmg9efgSYQgYfSQsXcfTemgeQSnQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQampXTcXeYfQfSQfFOQsXcfTemgeYQBgYeY9gemQqOTog9Oc kg9OYcOQSnQ_DDRbqQenngmgefOVQ_SS`abcQiYoOcfSTcQqOTog9OQMfaQkgtgfO`QspNQZQ[[]Q]KKQsBqkQ]]KKQeY`ST _SS`abcQsYemafg9cQsXcfTemgeQMfaQkf`QspNQK=QZ[QZ]QKQsBqkQ]]KQAecQeampampmg9eGmOCIQlFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQgYfOY`O` fSQGOQampTSog`O`QSYmaQfSQEPFSmOcemOQ9mgOYfcEQPgfFgYQfFOQtOeYgYhQSnQcO9fgSYQZltQSnQfFOQgtSTampSTefgSYcQs9fQ[[ZIQpa 9SYfgYXgYhQfSQe99OccQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQnTStQPgfFgYQsXcfTemgeVQaSXQTOampTOcOYfQfSQ_DDRbqQfFefQaSXQeTOVQSTQeTO

FINAL July 3 2013

The results of these scenarios are as follows

Base Case Revenues with Base Case Revenues with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

104x (2016) 136x (2015)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

132x (2039) 346x (2053)

Average Senior Lien Coverage 121x 212x Years Below 13x Coverage 25 0 Years Below 10x Coverage 0 0

No Revenue Growth with No Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service Restructured Debt Service

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

032x (2040) 049x (2053)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage 101x (2014) 138x (2014) Average Senior Lien Coverage 059x 078x Years Below 13x Coverage 26 35 Years Below 10x Coverage 24 30

The larger number of years below the coverage requirement is due to the fact that the final maturity of the bonds is extended with the restructured debt service

Clearly without the restructuring the Agency cannot meet its bond covenants going forward and without significant revenue increases coverages would soon fall below 100x debt service obligations

Variable Sensitivities To test the sensitivity of a number of important variables on the Agencyrsquos post‐restructuring debt profile MDA ran the following sensitivities

1 amp 2 The TampR Consultant provided two revenue projections a Base Case and an All‐Electronic Tolling (ldquoAETrdquo) scenario The only difference between the two projections is a one‐time revenue loss of $45 million in 2014 due to discounts provided to drivers for using electronic tolling The TampR Consultant assumes that no further impact on revenues occurs thereafter Please see Exhibits 1 and 2 for additional detail

3 The TampR Consultant also provides the general effect of a 2020 recession by assuming revenues decline from the Base Case to $127270000 in 2020 For the purposes of running our sensitivity we assumed this decrease occurs on a pro rata basis through 2020 and then revenue grows annually thereafter by the same percentage growth as shown in the Base Case Please see Exhibit 6 for additional detail

4 The TampR Consultant observes that based on historical results the elasticity of

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 13

FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FINAL July 3 2013

demand varied greatly on the toll road depending on the toll plaza measured In some areas evidence points to an elasticity of 10‐20 (that is a 1‐2 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) which would be considered low relative to the toll road rule of thumb generally 20 elasticity In certain other areas however data indicates a toll elasticity of 50 (that is a 5 reduction in demand for every 10 increase in price) considered extremely high

To test the sensitivity of elasticity of demand MDA ran a sensitivity of the entire model to 50 toll elasticity Please see Exhibit 7 for additional detail

5 Finally MDA ran a breakeven scenario to determine what percentage decrease below the Base Case revenue projections would result in 100X coverage in each year The results ranged from a low of 26 in 2014 and 2015 to a high of 68 in 2053 This indicates that the primary risk to the project is in the next few years and provides additional justification for the restructuring Please see Exhibit 8 for additional detail

While generally a TampR study will look at the sensitivity of revenue projections of the construction of competing facilities in this case the TampR Consultant stated that because of the ldquonon‐competerdquo condition in the existing Caltrans Cooperative Agreement the TampR Consultant believes there is no need to provide a revenue projection scenario assuming new competing facilities or capacity on nearby roadways Therefore we had no data with which to test this sensitivity

The results for our sensitivities are summarized below

1 Base Case Revenues

2 AET Revenues 3 2020 Recession Revenues

4 Toll Elasticity

Minimum Senior Lien Coverage (year) 136x (2015) 132x (2014) 100x (20142015) 109 (2047)

Maximum Senior Lien Coverage (year)

346x (2053) 346x (2053) 251x (2053) 187 (2025)

Average Senior Coverage

212x 211x 154x 141

Years Below 13x Coverage

0 0 8 10

As can be seen little difference exists between the Base Case and AET scenarios If toll elasticity of demand remains as it has been observed in the past based on our sensitivity results planned toll increases should not have a major impact on the Agencyrsquos financial situation Based on our sensitivities the greatest risk to the Agency is that another recession occurs reducing traffic demand and retarding growth in the surrounding area This is obviously a variable beyond the Agencyrsquos control but it points to the need for the Agency to preserve its flexibility as best it can and not over commit itself to projects that drain resources that may be needed to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 14

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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skkQiNBDd_sliDNQgtDNlsiN$QR$d$iNQiqQMdDl$gtl$QpRQksJVQiNgtkOiNltQpOlQNDlQki_il$QlDV gtDMRdiltRlQksJVQsNQNDN$QDBQqOgtRQiNBDd_sliDNQ_sRQp$QgtDMi$QDdQDlR$dJiq$ d$MdDOgt$VQd$MsgtPslt$VQBOdlR$dQldsNq_ill$VQldsNqB$dd$VQiqq$_iNsl$V d$iqldipOl$QDdQd$qDkVQDdQqlDd$QBDdQqOpq$VO$NlQOq$QBDdQsNRQqOgtRQMOdMDq$VQiN JRDk$QDdQiNQMsdlVQiNQsNRQBDd_QDdQ_sNN$dQDdQpRQsNRQ_$sNqQJRslqD$T$dVQpRQsNRQM$dqDN JilRDOlQ_DDRbqQMdiDdQJdill$NQgtDNq$NlIQsmmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQSGfegYO`QGaQ_DDRbq nTStQcSXT9OcQGOmgOoO`QGaQgfQfSQGOQe99XTefOQeY`QTOmgeGmOIQpO9eXcOQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQFXteYQSTQtO9FeYg9emQOTTSTQec POmmQecQSfFOTQne9fSTcVQFSPOoOTVQemmQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQgcQampTSog`O`QEsqQiqEQPgfFSXfQPeTTeYfaQSnQeYaQUgY`I _DDRbqQe`SampfcQemmQYO9OcceTaQtOecXTOcQcSQfFefQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQgfQXcOcQgYQeccghYgYhQeQ9TO`gfQTefgYhQgcQSnQcXnng9gOYf QXemgfaQeY`QnTStQcSXT9OcQ_SS`abcQ9SYcg`OTcQfSQGOQTOmgeGmOVQgY9mX`gYhVQPFOYQeampampTSampTgefOVQgY`OampOY`OYfQfFgT`^ampeTfa cSXT9OcIQRSPOoOTVQ_DDRbqQgcQYSfQeYQeX`gfSTQeY`Q9eYYSfQgYQOoOTaQgYcfeY9OQgY`OampOY`OYfmaQoOTgnaQSTQoemg`efO gYnSTtefgSYQTO9OgoO`QgYQfFOQTefgYhQampTS9OccIQOY`OTQYSQ9gT9XtcfeY9OcQcFemmQ_DDRbqQFeoOQeYaQmgeGgmgfaQfSQeYa ampOTcSYQSTQOYfgfaQnSTQAeCQeYaQmSccQSTQ`etehOQgYQPFSmOQSTQgYQampeTfQ9eXcO`QGaVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStVQSTQTOmefgYhQfSVQeYaQOTTST AYOhmghOYfQSTQSfFOTPgcOCQSTQSfFOTQ9gT9XtcfeY9OQSTQ9SYfgYhOY9aQPgfFgYQSTQSXfcg`OQfFOQ9SYfTSmQSnQ_DDRbqQSTQeYaQSn gfcQ`gTO9fSTcVQSnng9OTcVQOtampmSaOOcQSTQehOYfcQgYQ9SYYO9fgSYQPgfFQfFOQampTS9XTOtOYfVQ9SmmO9fgSYVQ9StampgmefgSYVQeYemacgcV gYfOTampTOfefgSYVQ9SttXYg9efgSYVQampXGmg9efgSYQSTQ`OmgoOTaQSnQeYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYVQSTQAGCQeYaQ`gTO9fVQgY`gTO9fVQcampO9gemV 9SYcOQXOYfgemVQ9StampOYcefSTaQSTQgY9g`OYfemQ`etehOcQPFefcSOoOTQAgY9mX`gYhQPgfFSXfQmgtgfefgSYVQmScfQampTSngfcCVQOoOYQgn _DDRbqQgcQe`ogcO`QgYQe`oeY9OQSnQfFOQampSccgGgmgfaQSnQcX9FQ`etehOcVQTOcXmfgYhQnTStQfFOQXcOQSnQSTQgYeGgmgfaQfSQXcOV eYaQcX9FQgYnSTtefgSYIQlFOQTefgYhcVQngYeY9gemQTOampSTfgYhQeYemacgcVQampTSHO9fgSYcVQeY`QSfFOTQSGcOToefgSYcVQgnQeYaV 9SYcfgfXfgYhQampeTfQSnQfFOQgYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQeTOVQeY`QtXcfQGOQ9SYcfTXO`QcSmOmaQecVQcfefOtOYfcQSnQSampgYgSY eY`QYSfQcfefOtOYfcQSnQne9fQSTQTO9SttOY`efgSYcQfSQampXT9FecOVQcOmmQSTQFSm`QeYaQcO9XTgfgOcIQ$e9FQXcOTQSnQfFO gYnSTtefgSYQ9SYfegYO`QFOTOgYQtXcfQteUOQgfcQSPYQcfX`aQeY`QOoemXefgSYQSnQOe9FQcO9XTgfaQgfQteaQ9SYcg`OTQampXT9FecgYhV FSm`gYhQSTQcOmmgYhIQNDQJsddsNlRVQ$WMd$qqQDdQi_Mki$VQsqQlDQlR$QsgtgtOdsgtRVQli_$kiN$qqV gtD_Mk$l$N$qqVQ_$dgtRsNlspikilRQDdQBilN$qqQBDdQsNRQMsdligtOksdQMOdMDq$QDBQsNRQqOgtR dsliNltQDdQDlR$dQDMiNiDNQDdQiNBDd_sliDNQiqQltiT$NQDdQ_s$QpRQ_DDRbqQiNQsNRQBDd_QDd _sNN$dQJRslqD$T$dI

_iqVQeQPFSmma^SPYO`Q9TO`gfQTefgYhQehOY9aQcXGcg`geTaQSnQ_SS`abcQgtSTampSTefgSYQAE_gtDECVQFOTOGaQ`gc9mScOcQfFefQtScf gccXOTcQSnQ`OGfQcO9XTgfgOcQAgY9mX`gYhQ9STampSTefOQeY`QtXYg9gampemQGSY`cVQ`OGOYfXTOcVQYSfOcQeY`Q9SttOT9gemQampeampOTCQeY` ampTOnOTTO`QcfS9UQTefO`QGaQ_iqQFeoOVQampTgSTQfSQeccghYtOYfQSnQeYaQTefgYhVQehTOO`QfSQampeaQfSQ_iqQnSTQeampampTegcemQeY`QTefgYh cOTog9OcQTOY`OTO`QGaQgfQnOOcQTeYhgYhQnTStQuZV[[QfSQeampampTSgtefOmaQuV[[V[[[IQ_gtDQeY`Q_iqQemcSQtegYfegYQampSmg9gOc eY`QampTS9O`XTOcQfSQe``TOccQfFOQgY`OampOY`OY9OQSnQ_iqbcQTefgYhcQeY`QTefgYhQampTS9OccOcIQiYnSTtefgSYQTOheT`gYhQ9OTfegY enngmgefgSYcQfFefQteaQOgcfQGOfPOOYQ`gTO9fSTcQSnQ_gtDQeY`QTefO`QOYfgfgOcVQeY`QGOfPOOYQOYfgfgOcQPFSQFSm`QTefgYhcQnTSt _iqQeY`QFeoOQemcSQampXGmg9maQTOampSTfO`QfSQfFOQq$gtQeYQSPYOTcFgampQgYfOTOcfQgYQ_gtDQSnQtSTOQfFeYQNVQgcQampScfO`QeYYXemma efQPPPItSS`acI9StQXY`OTQfFOQFOe`gYhQEqFeTOFSm`OTQdOmefgSYcQXQgtSTampSTefOQltSoOTYeY9OQXQgTO9fSTQeY` qFeTOFSm`OTQsnngmgefgSYQMSmg9aIE

BSTQsXcfTemgeQSYmajQsYaQampXGmg9efgSYQgYfSQsXcfTemgeQSnQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQampXTcXeYfQfSQfFOQsXcfTemgeYQBgYeY9gemQqOTog9Oc kg9OYcOQSnQ_DDRbqQenngmgefOVQ_SS`abcQiYoOcfSTcQqOTog9OQMfaQkgtgfO`QspNQZQ[[]Q]KKQsBqkQ]]KKQeY`ST _SS`abcQsYemafg9cQsXcfTemgeQMfaQkf`QspNQK=QZ[QZ]QKQsBqkQ]]KQAecQeampampmg9eGmOCIQlFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQgYfOY`O` fSQGOQampTSog`O`QSYmaQfSQEPFSmOcemOQ9mgOYfcEQPgfFgYQfFOQtOeYgYhQSnQcO9fgSYQZltQSnQfFOQgtSTampSTefgSYcQs9fQ[[ZIQpa 9SYfgYXgYhQfSQe99OccQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQnTStQPgfFgYQsXcfTemgeVQaSXQTOampTOcOYfQfSQ_DDRbqQfFefQaSXQeTOVQSTQeTO

FINAL July 3 2013

weather another economic storm

7 Rating Agency Reports

Fitch Moodyrsquos and Standard amp Poorrsquos have each provided rating reports on the Agencyrsquos restructuring (See Exhibits 9 10 and 11) Following are highlights from each report

Fitch Ratings

On June 14 2013 Fitch Ratings assigned Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of rsquoBBB‐lsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds receiving a lsquoBBrsquo According to Fitch the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Fitch rating evaluation

ldquoA narrow corridor for future development limits growth potential for development Traffic levels have not met baseline projections due to seven toll increases (above inflation) over the last decade These two elements express mid‐level risk for future revenue volume levels Current tolling fees are higher than peers (30 centsmile) and close to maximization presenting greater revenue risk as well Simultaneously management has consistently been pro‐active in raising rates which presents a credit strength Reserves ($604M) project to remain healthy and the revised schedule would (extended by 13 years) provide for extensive financial flexibility DSCRs in 2012 did not meet the criteria of 130x without the use of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) which provided a 142x multiple utilizing $164M from the EDF Capital improvement programs (CIP) present minimal risk due to modest funding requirements ($47M) and an impediment in receiving the necessary environmental permits andor record of decisions to proceedrdquo

Moodyrsquos

On June 10 2013 Moodyrsquos assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBaa3rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds a rating of lsquoBa1rsquo According to Moodyrsquos the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the Moodyrsquos rating evaluation

ldquoRationale for the rating stipulates that deferral of principal repayment by 13 years will smooth the debt service profile and improve DSCRs Traffic and Revenue (TampR) are ahead of 2013rsquos budget but remain below the 1999 financing forecast Anticipated continuous recovery and development in the service area along with the relief that these toll roads provide from traffic congestion supports the investment grade rating for 2013 senior bonds Socio‐economic indicators and wealth levels are above national averages and housing values continue to improve These facets should allow room for future toll increases which are necessary to

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 15

FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FINAL July 3 2013

support this steadily escalating debt service Added risk associated with the potential extension of Foothill South could exert positive credit pressure

Credit positives include ample liquidity levels cash funded debt service reserve funds (DSRF) no current ramp‐up or construction risks and debt service smoothing relief from expenditures provided by this refunding Credit negatives include higher than average toll rates Foothill Southrsquos potential extension reliability on higher than historic TampR levels and toll rate increases along with a mitigation agreement with the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agencyrdquo

SampP

On June 11 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos Ratings Services (SampP) assigned the Agencyrsquos senior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013A C D) a rating of lsquoBBB‐rsquo with junior lien refunding revenue bonds (2013B) a rating of lsquoBB+rsquo According to SampP the overall rating outlook exhibits stability for all bonds including senior series 1995 bonds which will not be refunded Following is a summary of the key credit points from the SampP rating evaluation

ldquoCredit risks include high debt levels and an escalating debt service schedule which is increasing by 35 annually through 2036 Other risks include recent negative operational performance uncertainty with elasticity levels in toll rate increases uncertainty in the Foothill South extension and slim aggregate coverage ratios SampP makes note that these potential risks are mitigated by an affluent service area with higher traffic levels on freeways and population that is reliant on a highway network Every year since 2007 has either not met the 1999 TampR study traffic forecast or has been flat According to SampP revenues have increased in recent years with a 7 increase in 2012 and a YTD increase of 4 in 2013

According to the latest TampR study operations are below the maximization toll level and could be increased which could result in a potential 14 increase in revenues in 2035 The 13x coverage ratio is currently being met by escrowing a portion of the debt service each year SampP believes that the current practice of escrowing debt service is not sustainable and that this restructuring of debt would provide the Agency with financial flexibility that better matches the debt service schedule with forecasted revenues Currently liquidity positions are good relative to operating expenses Extension of the Foothill South may present a credit negative as the ability to add additional debt is limitedrdquo

In summary the rating agencies are assigning the restructuringrsquos senior bonds a low investment grade rating primarily because of the strong demographics of the local area the Agencyrsquos high liquidity levels no construction or ramp‐up risk and the debt payment relief provided by the restructuring Credit concerns include high debt levels high per mile tolls relative to its peers lack of toll transaction growth and the additional burden that the Foothill South extension project could put on the already weak financial condition of the toll road

8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 16

FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FINAL July 3 2013

MDA also undertook a review of the Agencyrsquos last two fiscal year financial statements The following information represents some of the key financial highlights during the year over year (YOY) period for fiscal year 2011 (FY2011) and fiscal year 2012 (FY2012)

In review of the Statement of Net Deficit figures two key figures show considerable YOY variance Cash cash equivalents and investments totaled $10352M and $11631M for 2011 and 2012 respectively representing a 123 increase Accounts payable totaled $445M and $584M respectively representing a 312 increase YOY In review of the Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit it is important to note two key variances as well Operating revenues from tolls fees and fines exhibited a 71 YOY increase with a FY2011 total of $11471M and a FY2012 total of $12294M Overall operating income (net of expenses) has displayed substantial increases FY2011 totaled $9163M and FY2012 totaled $10605M representing a 157 increase Other noteworthy data is the YOY increase in principal payments Principal to be amortized totaled $454M and $1139M respectively representing a 151 increase in payments Other YOY changes in account balances revenues and expenses display marginal differences

Our review of the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridors Agencyrsquos financial statements yielded two potential items of concern First development impact fees decreased by nearly 60 from $116 million in 2011 to $47 million in 2012 It is our understanding that the FE Agency is permitted to use up to $5 million of development impact fees for non‐debt related purposes but the remainder of the fees secure outstanding debt Since this is a volatile revenue source it is important that bondholders are made aware of the cause of major increases or decreases in development impact fee collections and that projections for future collections are clear and conservative

We also noted that operating expenses decreased by 38 from 2011 to 2012 from $353mm to $234mm due to the contributions to Caltrans for capital improvements made to the Windy Ridge capital improvement project in FY2011 A similar expense for Caltrans was not made for FY2012 For purposes of projecting expenses it would be helpful to know if the FE Agency can expect any additional significant increases or decreases in operating expenses due to future contributions to Caltrans for other capital improvement projects

Pro‐Forma Financial Statements

To further understand the impact of the proposed restructuring on the Agencyrsquos long‐term viability MDA prepared ten‐year pro‐forma Agency Financial Statements one assuming existing debt service remains unchanged and the other assuming the restructured debt service

The results are summarized below (Please see Exhibit 12 for additional detail)

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 17

FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FINAL July 3 2013

Reduction in Net Deficit (in 000s)

Year Existing Debt Service With Restructuring 2014 $31407 $52901 2015 $31220 $50970 2016 $28655 $57377 2017 $56465 $68529 2018 $49106 $76824 2019 $56987 $85413 2020 $60940 $95642 2021 $61486 $96731 2022 $64739 $104372 2023 $73679 $111432

Cumulative Change

$514684 $800191

Net Assets (Deficit) is capital assets net of accumulated depreciation amortization and outstanding debt principal against those assets

Thus on a ten‐year pro‐forma basis the restructuring will provide nearly $286 million of net asset benefit to the Agency providing a strong long‐term boost to its viability

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency 2013 Restructuring Page | 18

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 1 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 1 Base Case

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Other

Revenues Current

Expenses2 Net Toll

Revenues Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 2 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 2 Electronic Tolling

Fiscal Year

All Electronic Tolling Gross

Rve

1

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2

Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net

Debt Service Senior Debt Service

Coverage Ratio Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 111500000 18545700 23708349 106337351 80297280 11287124 91584404 132 116 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 130844713 16359150 147203863 188 167 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 135424713 16926538 152351250 188 167 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 140164713 17522850 157687563 188 167 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 145069713 18136275 163205988 188 168 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 150149303 18767550 168916853 189 168 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 153204213 21610125 174814338 193 169 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 158885463 22047731 180933194 192 169 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 165095088 22172425 187267513 192 170 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 172299713 20839581 193139294 191 170 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 178329713 14805469 193135181 192 177 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 179334713 13804944 193139656 198 184 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 179334713 13804100 193138813 205 190 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 179333713 13798181 193131894 212 197 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 179330838 13809744 193140581 220 205 6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 179329338 13811344 193140681 229 212 6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 179324213 13810969 193135181 238 221 6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 247 247 6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 256 256 6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 266 266 6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 276 276 6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 286 286 6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 297 297 6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 308 308 6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 320 320 6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 333 333 6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 346 346

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 3 Base Case Revenue with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 3

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 107 107 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 108 108 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 104 104 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 107 107 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 108 108 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 113 113 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 115 115 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 118 118 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 119 119 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 124 124 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 124 124 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 127 127 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 124 124 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 128 128 6302028 253400000 23787643 31461866 245725777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 125 125 6302029 262900000 24204425 32405722 254698703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 127 127 6302030 272800000 24629432 33377894 264051538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 125 125 6302031 282700000 25062827 34379231 273383596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 127 127 6302032 293700000 25504775 35410608 283794168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 125 125 6302033 305900000 25955447 36472926 295382521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 128 128 6302034 316400000 26415014 37567114 305247900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 124 124 6302035 329500000 26883653 38694127 317689526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 127 127 6302036 341600000 27361544 39854951 329106593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 125 125 6302037 355600000 27848869 41050599 342398270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 131 131 6302038 369600000 28345817 42282117 355663699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 128 128 6302039 381900000 28852576 43550581 367201995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 132 132 6302040 396500000 29369342 44857098 381012243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 128 128 6302041 411700000 29896312 46202811 395393501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 427300000 30433690 47588896 410144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 444000000 30981680 49016563 425965118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 462200000 31540494 50487059 443253435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 479800000 32110345 52001671 459908674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 497200000 32691453 53561721 476329732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 517200000 33284040 55168573 495315467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 535300000 33888334 56823630 512364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 556700000 34504567 58528339 532676228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 578300000 35132975 60284189 553148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 600700000 35773800 62092715 574381085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 624300000 36427287 63955496 596771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 648600000 37093688 65874161 619819527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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BSTQsXcfTemgeQSYmajQsYaQampXGmg9efgSYQgYfSQsXcfTemgeQSnQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQampXTcXeYfQfSQfFOQsXcfTemgeYQBgYeY9gemQqOTog9Oc kg9OYcOQSnQ_DDRbqQenngmgefOVQ_SS`abcQiYoOcfSTcQqOTog9OQMfaQkgtgfO`QspNQZQ[[]Q]KKQsBqkQ]]KKQeY`ST _SS`abcQsYemafg9cQsXcfTemgeQMfaQkf`QspNQK=QZ[QZ]QKQsBqkQ]]KQAecQeampampmg9eGmOCIQlFgcQ`S9XtOYfQgcQgYfOY`O` fSQGOQampTSog`O`QSYmaQfSQEPFSmOcemOQ9mgOYfcEQPgfFgYQfFOQtOeYgYhQSnQcO9fgSYQZltQSnQfFOQgtSTampSTefgSYcQs9fQ[[ZIQpa 9SYfgYXgYhQfSQe99OccQfFgcQ`S9XtOYfQnTStQPgfFgYQsXcfTemgeVQaSXQTOampTOcOYfQfSQ_DDRbqQfFefQaSXQeTOVQSTQeTO

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 4 0 Revenue Growth with Existing Debt Service

Exhibit 4

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 110300000 18545700 23708349 105137351 104078605 ‐ 104078605 101 101 6302015 110300000 19049346 21424000 107925346 107658102 ‐ 107658102 100 100 6302016 110300000 19372663 22066720 107605943 118569349 ‐ 118569349 091 091 6302017 110300000 19702355 22728722 107273633 123294599 ‐ 123294599 087 087 6302018 110300000 20038548 23410583 106927965 132064599 ‐ 132064599 081 081 6302019 110300000 20381371 24112901 106568470 136430724 ‐ 136430724 078 078 6302020 110300000 20730954 24836288 106194667 146488994 ‐ 146488994 072 072 6302021 110300000 21087433 25581376 105806056 150941139 ‐ 150941139 070 070 6302022 110300000 21450942 26348818 105402125 159376139 ‐ 159376139 066 066 6302023 110300000 21821622 27139282 104982340 161685991 ‐ 161685991 065 065 6302024 110300000 22199614 27953461 104546154 170630844 ‐ 170630844 061 061 6302025 110300000 22585063 28792065 104092999 173685844 ‐ 173685844 060 060 6302026 110300000 22978117 29655826 103622291 183013969 ‐ 183013969 057 057 6302027 110300000 23378926 30545501 103133424 184615584 ‐ 184615584 056 056 6302028 110300000 23787643 31461866 102625777 196961119 ‐ 196961119 052 052 6302029 110300000 24204425 32405722 102098703 200323906 ‐ 200323906 051 051 6302030 110300000 24629432 33377894 101551538 211379650 ‐ 211379650 048 048 6302031 110300000 25062827 34379231 100983596 215144650 ‐ 215144650 047 047 6302032 110300000 25504775 35410608 100394168 226454240 ‐ 226454240 044 044 6302033 110300000 25955447 36472926 99782521 230539150 ‐ 230539150 043 043 6302034 110300000 26415014 37567114 99147900 245304150 ‐ 245304150 040 040 6302035 110300000 26883653 38694127 98489526 249204400 ‐ 249204400 040 040 6302036 110300000 27361544 39854951 97806593 262429650 ‐ 262429650 037 037 6302037 110300000 27848869 41050599 97098270 261884650 ‐ 261884650 037 037 6302038 110300000 28345817 42282117 96363699 276829650 ‐ 276829650 035 035 6302039 110300000 28852576 43550581 95601995 278224531 ‐ 278224531 034 034 6302040 110300000 29369342 44857098 94812243 297879706 ‐ 297879706 032 032 6302041 110300000 29896312 46202811 93993501 ‐ ‐ ‐6302042 110300000 30433690 47588896 93144794 ‐ ‐ ‐6302043 110300000 30981680 49016563 92265118 ‐ ‐ ‐6302044 110300000 31540494 50487059 91353435 ‐ ‐ ‐6302045 110300000 32110345 52001671 90408674 ‐ ‐ ‐6302046 110300000 32691453 53561721 89429732 ‐ ‐ ‐6302047 110300000 33284040 55168573 88415467 ‐ ‐ ‐6302048 110300000 33888334 56823630 87364704 ‐ ‐ ‐6302049 110300000 34504567 58528339 86276228 ‐ ‐ ‐6302050 110300000 35132975 60284189 85148786 ‐ ‐ ‐6302051 110300000 35773800 62092715 83981085 ‐ ‐ ‐6302052 110300000 36427287 63955496 82771791 ‐ ‐ ‐6302053 110300000 37093688 65874161 81519527 ‐ ‐ ‐

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency

Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 5 0 Growth with Restructured Debt Service

Exhibit 5

Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net Senior Debt Service Aggregate Debt Service Fiscal Year

Revenues1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service Coverage Ratio Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 116080000 19049346 21424000 113705346 85329713 11576538 96906250 133 117 6302016 116080000 19372663 22066720 113385943 87269713 11576538 98846250 130 115 6302017 116080000 19702355 22728722 113053633 89249713 11576538 100826250 127 112 6302018 116080000 20038548 23410583 112707965 92769713 11576538 104346250 121 108 6302019 116080000 20381371 24112901 112348470 96004713 12000663 108005375 117 104 6302020 116080000 20730954 24836288 111974667 99364713 12422538 111787250 113 100 6302021 116080000 21087433 25581376 111586056 102839713 12855788 115695500 109 096 6302022 116080000 21450942 26348818 111182125 106439713 13303538 119743250 104 093 6302023 116080000 21821622 27139282 110762340 110164713 13768663 123933375 101 089 6302024 116080000 22199614 27953461 110326154 114024713 14254769 128279481 097 086 6302025 116080000 22585063 28792065 109872999 118014713 14753381 132768094 093 083 6302026 116080000 22978117 29655826 109402291 122144713 15269850 137414563 090 080 6302027 116080000 23378926 30545501 108913424 126419713 15806156 142225869 086 077 6302028 116080000 23787643 31461866 108405777 130844713 16359150 147203863 083 074 6302029 116080000 24204425 32405722 107878703 135424713 16926538 152351250 080 071 6302030 116080000 24629432 33377894 107331538 140164713 17522850 157687563 077 068 6302031 116080000 25062827 34379231 106763596 145069713 18136275 163205988 074 065 6302032 116080000 25504775 35410608 106174168 150149303 18767550 168916853 071 063 6302033 116080000 25955447 36472926 105562521 153204213 21610125 174814338 069 060 6302034 116080000 26415014 37567114 104927900 158885463 22047731 180933194 066 058 6302035 116080000 26883653 38694127 104269526 165095088 22172425 187267513 063 056 6302036 116080000 27361544 39854951 103586593 172299713 20839581 193139294 060 054 6302037 116080000 27848869 41050599 102878270 178329713 14805469 193135181 058 053 6302038 116080000 28345817 42282117 102143699 179334713 13804944 193139656 057 053 6302039 116080000 28852576 43550581 101381995 179334713 13804100 193138813 057 052 6302040 116080000 29369342 44857098 100592243 179333713 13798181 193131894 056 052 6302041 116080000 29896312 46202811 99773501 179330838 13809744 193140581 056 052 6302042 116080000 30433690 47588896 98924794 179329338 13811344 193140681 055 051 6302043 116080000 30981680 49016563 98045118 179324213 13810969 193135181 055 051 6302044 116080000 31540494 50487059 97133435 179324263 ‐ 179324263 054 054 6302045 116080000 32110345 52001671 96188674 179327338 ‐ 179327338 054 054 6302046 116080000 32691453 53561721 95209732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 053 053 6302047 116080000 33284040 55168573 94195467 179322900 ‐ 179322900 053 053 6302048 116080000 33888334 56823630 93144704 179327900 ‐ 179327900 052 052 6302049 116080000 34504567 58528339 92056228 179327244 ‐ 179327244 051 051 6302050 116080000 35132975 60284189 90928786 179325988 ‐ 179325988 051 051 6302051 116080000 35773800 62092715 89761085 179328000 ‐ 179328000 050 050 6302052 116080000 36427287 63955496 88551791 179326100 ‐ 179326100 049 049 6302053 116080000 37093688 65874161 87299527 179326925 ‐ 179326925 049 049

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 6 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 6 2020 Recession

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Base Case

Growth Rate

Recession

Scenario2 Other

Revenues

Current

Expenses3 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service4 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 85792692 18545700 23708349 80630043 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 87433455 19049346 21424000 85058801 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 92902666 19372663 22066720 90208608 87269713 11576538 98846250 103 091 6302017 135500000 100145674 19702355 22728722 97119307 89249713 11576538 100826250 109 096 6302018 146100000 107979948 20038548 23410583 104607912 92769713 11576538 104346250 113 100 6302019 158100000 116848937 20381371 24112901 113117407 96004713 12000663 108005375 118 105 6302020 172200000 127270000 20730954 24836288 123164667 99364713 12422538 111787250 124 110 6302021 183000000 627 135252091 21087433 25581376 130758147 102839713 12855788 115695500 127 113 6302022 194900000 650 144047172 21450942 26348818 139149297 106439713 13303538 119743250 131 116 6302023 206400000 590 152546620 21821622 27139282 147228960 110164713 13768663 123933375 134 119 6302024 216600000 494 160085261 22199614 27953461 154331415 114024713 14254769 128279481 135 120 6302025 226400000 452 167328269 22585063 28792065 161121268 118014713 14753381 132768094 137 121 6302026 233600000 318 172649663 22978117 29655826 165971954 122144713 15269850 137414563 136 121 6302027 242600000 385 179301405 23378926 30545501 172134830 126419713 15806156 142225869 136 121 6302028 253400000 445 187283496 23787643 31461866 179609272 130844713 16359150 147203863 137 122 6302029 262900000 375 194304779 24204425 32405722 186103482 135424713 16926538 152351250 137 122 6302030 272800000 377 201621696 24629432 33377894 192873234 140164713 17522850 157687563 138 122 6302031 282700000 363 208938612 25062827 34379231 199622208 145069713 18136275 163205988 138 122 6302032 293700000 389 217068519 25504775 35410608 207162687 150149303 18767550 168916853 138 123 6302033 305900000 415 226085325 25955447 36472926 215567846 153204213 21610125 174814338 141 123 6302034 316400000 343 233845691 26415014 37567114 222693591 158885463 22047731 180933194 140 123 6302035 329500000 414 243527671 26883653 38694127 231717197 165095088 22172425 187267513 140 124 6302036 341600000 367 252470569 27361544 39854951 239977162 172299713 20839581 193139294 139 124 6302037 355600000 410 262817724 27848869 41050599 249615994 178329713 14805469 193135181 140 129 6302038 369600000 394 273164878 28345817 42282117 259228577 179334713 13804944 193139656 145 134 6302039 381900000 333 282255592 28852576 43550581 267557587 179334713 13804100 193138813 149 139 6302040 396500000 382 293046196 29369342 44857098 277558440 179333713 13798181 193131894 155 144 6302041 411700000 383 304280250 29896312 46202811 287973751 179330838 13809744 193140581 161 149 6302042 427300000 379 315809936 30433690 47588896 298654730 179329338 13811344 193140681 167 155 6302043 444000000 391 328152613 30981680 49016563 310117731 179324213 13810969 193135181 173 161 6302044 462200000 410 341603914 31540494 50487059 322657349 179324263 ‐ 179324263 180 180 6302045 479800000 381 354611765 32110345 52001671 334720440 179327338 ‐ 179327338 187 187 6302046 497200000 363 367471800 32691453 53561721 346601532 179325013 ‐ 179325013 193 193 6302047 517200000 402 382253449 33284040 55168573 360368917 179322900 ‐ 179322900 201 201 6302048 535300000 350 395630842 33888334 56823630 372695546 179327900 ‐ 179327900 208 208 6302049 556700000 400 411447207 34504567 58528339 387423435 179327244 ‐ 179327244 216 216 6302050 578300000 388 427411388 35132975 60284189 402260174 179325988 ‐ 179325988 224 224 6302051 600700000 387 443966835 35773800 62092715 417647920 179328000 ‐ 179328000 233 233 6302052 624300000 393 461409181 36427287 63955496 433880972 179326100 ‐ 179326100 242 242 6302053 648600000 389 479368885 37093688 65874161 450588412 179326925 ‐ 179326925 251 251

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 For years 2014 through 2020 gross toll revenues reduced by approximately 27 3 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 4 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 7 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 7 50 Elasticity of Demand

Senior Debt Aggregate Debt Gross Toll Other Current Net Toll Total Senior Net 2013 Junior Debt Aggregate Net

Fiscal Year Service Coverage Service Coverage Revenues

1 Revenues Expenses2 Revenues Debt Service3 Service Debt Service

Ratio Ratio

6302014 116080000 18545700 23708349 110917351 80297280 11287124 91584404 138 121 6302015 118300000 19049346 21424000 115925346 85329713 11576538 96906250 136 120 6302016 125700000 19372663 22066720 123005943 87269713 11576538 98846250 141 124 6302017 135500000 19702355 22728722 132473633 89249713 11576538 100826250 148 131 6302018 146100000 20038548 23410583 142727965 92769713 11576538 104346250 154 137 6302019 158100000 20381371 24112901 154368470 96004713 12000663 108005375 161 143 6302020 172200000 20730954 24836288 168094667 99364713 12422538 111787250 169 150 6302021 183000000 21087433 25581376 178506056 102839713 12855788 115695500 174 154 6302022 194900000 21450942 26348818 190002125 106439713 13303538 119743250 179 159 6302023 206400000 21821622 27139282 201082340 110164713 13768663 123933375 183 162 6302024 216600000 22199614 27953461 210846154 114024713 14254769 128279481 185 164 6302025 226400000 22585063 28792065 220192999 118014713 14753381 132768094 187 166 6302026 233600000 22978117 29655826 226922291 122144713 15269850 137414563 186 165 6302027 242600000 23378926 30545501 235433424 126419713 15806156 142225869 186 166 6302028 190050000 23787643 31461866 182375777 130844713 16359150 147203863 139 124 6302029 197175000 24204425 32405722 188973703 135424713 16926538 152351250 140 124 6302030 204600000 24629432 33377894 195851538 140164713 17522850 157687563 140 124 6302031 212025000 25062827 34379231 202708596 145069713 18136275 163205988 140 124 6302032 220275000 25504775 35410608 210369168 150149303 18767550 168916853 140 125 6302033 229425000 25955447 36472926 218907521 153204213 21610125 174814338 143 125 6302034 237300000 26415014 37567114 226147900 158885463 22047731 180933194 142 125 6302035 247125000 26883653 38694127 235314526 165095088 22172425 187267513 143 126 6302036 256200000 27361544 39854951 243706593 172299713 20839581 193139294 141 126 6302037 266700000 27848869 41050599 253498270 178329713 14805469 193135181 142 131 6302038 277200000 28345817 42282117 263263699 179334713 13804944 193139656 147 136 6302039 214818750 28852576 43550581 200120745 179334713 13804100 193138813 112 104 6302040 223031250 29369342 44857098 207543493 179333713 13798181 193131894 116 107 6302041 231581250 29896312 46202811 215274751 179330838 13809744 193140581 120 111 6302042 240356250 30433690 47588896 223201044 179329338 13811344 193140681 124 116 6302043 249750000 30981680 49016563 231715118 179324213 13810969 193135181 129 120 6302044 259987500 31540494 50487059 241040935 179324263 ‐ 179324263 134 134 6302045 269887500 32110345 52001671 249996174 179327338 ‐ 179327338 139 139 6302046 279675000 32691453 53561721 258804732 179325013 ‐ 179325013 144 144 6302047 218193750 33284040 55168573 196309217 179322900 ‐ 179322900 109 109 6302048 225829688 33888334 56823630 202894391 179327900 ‐ 179327900 113 113 6302049 234857813 34504567 58528339 210834040 179327244 ‐ 179327244 118 118 6302050 243970313 35132975 60284189 218819098 179325988 ‐ 179325988 122 122 6302051 253420313 35773800 62092715 227101397 179328000 ‐ 179328000 127 127 6302052 263376563 36427287 63955496 235848353 179326100 ‐ 179326100 132 132 6302053 273628125 37093688 65874161 244847652 179326925 ‐ 179326925 137 137

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency Exhibit 8 Summary Cash Flow Model Interest Rates as of May 24 2013 Scenario 8 Coverage Breakeven

Fiscal Year Gross Toll

Revenues1 Breakeven Decrease $

Breakeven Decrease

Other Revenues

Current

Expenses2 Net Toll Revenues

Total Senior Net

Debt Service3 2013 Junior Debt

Service Aggregate Net Debt Service

Senior Debt Service Coverage Ratio

Aggregate Debt Service Coverage Ratio

6302014 116080000 (30620071) ‐26 18545700 23708349 80297280 80297280 11287124 91584404 100 088 6302015 118300000 (30595634) ‐26 19049346 21424000 85329713 85329713 11576538 96906250 100 088 6302016 125700000 (35736230) ‐28 19372663 22066720 87269713 87269713 11576538 98846250 100 088 6302017 135500000 (43223921) ‐32 19702355 22728722 89249713 89249713 11576538 100826250 100 089 6302018 146100000 (49958252) ‐34 20038548 23410583 92769713 92769713 11576538 104346250 100 089 6302019 158100000 (58363757) ‐37 20381371 24112901 96004713 96004713 12000663 108005375 100 089 6302020 172200000 (68729954) ‐40 20730954 24836288 99364713 99364713 12422538 111787250 100 089 6302021 183000000 (75666344) ‐41 21087433 25581376 102839713 102839713 12855788 115695500 100 089 6302022 194900000 (83562412) ‐43 21450942 26348818 106439713 106439713 13303538 119743250 100 089 6302023 206400000 (90917628) ‐44 21821622 27139282 110164713 110164713 13768663 123933375 100 089 6302024 216600000 (96821441) ‐45 22199614 27953461 114024713 114024713 14254769 128279481 100 089 6302025 226400000 (102178286) ‐45 22585063 28792065 118014713 118014713 14753381 132768094 100 089 6302026 233600000 (104777578) ‐45 22978117 29655826 122144713 122144713 15269850 137414563 100 089 6302027 242600000 (109013712) ‐45 23378926 30545501 126419713 126419713 15806156 142225869 100 089 6302028 253400000 (114881064) ‐45 23787643 31461866 130844713 130844713 16359150 147203863 100 089 6302029 262900000 (119273990) ‐45 24204425 32405722 135424713 135424713 16926538 152351250 100 089 6302030 272800000 (123886826) ‐45 24629432 33377894 140164713 140164713 17522850 157687563 100 089 6302031 282700000 (128313884) ‐45 25062827 34379231 145069713 145069713 18136275 163205988 100 089 6302032 293700000 (133644865) ‐46 25504775 35410608 150149303 150149303 18767550 168916853 100 089 6302033 305900000 (142178308) ‐46 25955447 36472926 153204213 153204213 21610125 174814338 100 088 6302034 316400000 (146362438) ‐46 26415014 37567114 158885463 158885463 22047731 180933194 100 088 6302035 329500000 (152594439) ‐46 26883653 38694127 165095088 165095088 22172425 187267513 100 088 6302036 341600000 (156806881) ‐46 27361544 39854951 172299713 172299713 20839581 193139294 100 089 6302037 355600000 (164068558) ‐46 27848869 41050599 178329713 178329713 14805469 193135181 100 092 6302038 369600000 (176328987) ‐48 28345817 42282117 179334713 179334713 13804944 193139656 100 093 6302039 381900000 (187867282) ‐49 28852576 43550581 179334713 179334713 13804100 193138813 100 093 6302040 396500000 (201678531) ‐51 29369342 44857098 179333713 179333713 13798181 193131894 100 093 6302041 411700000 (216062663) ‐52 29896312 46202811 179330838 179330838 13809744 193140581 100 093 6302042 427300000 (230815457) ‐54 30433690 47588896 179329338 179329338 13811344 193140681 100 093 6302043 444000000 (246640905) ‐56 30981680 49016563 179324213 179324213 13810969 193135181 100 093 6302044 462200000 (263929172) ‐57 31540494 50487059 179324263 179324263 ‐ 179324263 100 100 6302045 479800000 (280581337) ‐58 32110345 52001671 179327338 179327338 ‐ 179327338 100 100 6302046 497200000 (297004719) ‐60 32691453 53561721 179325013 179325013 ‐ 179325013 100 100 6302047 517200000 (315992567) ‐61 33284040 55168573 179322900 179322900 ‐ 179322900 100 100 6302048 535300000 (333036804) ‐62 33888334 56823630 179327900 179327900 ‐ 179327900 100 100 6302049 556700000 (353348984) ‐63 34504567 58528339 179327244 179327244 ‐ 179327244 100 100 6302050 578300000 (373822798) ‐65 35132975 60284189 179325988 179325988 ‐ 179325988 100 100 6302051 600700000 (395053085) ‐66 35773800 62092715 179328000 179328000 ‐ 179328000 100 100 6302052 624300000 (417445691) ‐67 36427287 63955496 179326100 179326100 ‐ 179326100 100 100 6302053 648600000 (440492602) ‐68 37093688 65874161 179326925 179326925 ‐ 179326925 100 100

1 2015 ‐2053 represent amounts set forth in the draft Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study dated January 18 2013 (AET scenario) 2014 based on proposed FY14 budget 2 FY 2014 source FETCA proposed budget Includes $3mm budgeted for one‐time all‐electronic tolling cost 2015‐2053 assumes reduction in FY15 due to conversion to all‐electronic tolling Growth rate assumed to be 3 3 Series 1995 debt service includes covenant to redeem Series 1995 Bonds

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[11-Jun-2013] Foothill-Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency Californi httpswwwglobalcreditportalcomratingsdirectshowArticlePagedor

RatingsDirect

Research

Foothill-Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency California Toll Roads Bridges 11-Jun-2013

6282013 439 PM

Current Ratings

Credit Profile

US$14300 mil current interest bnds ser 2013A due 06302053

Long Term Rating BBB-Stable New

US$6500 mil current interest bnds ser 2013C due 06302047

Long Term Rating BBB-Stable New

US$6070 mil forward delivery bnds ser 2013D due 06302047

Long Term Rating BBB-Stable New

US$2070 mil junior lien bnds ser 2013B due 06302047

Long Term Rating BB+Stable New

Rationale Standard amp Poors Ratings Services assigned its BBB- long-term rating to the Foothill-Eastern Transportation

Corridor Agency (FETCA or agency) Califs approximately $143 billion series 2013A toll road refunding revenue

bonds $650 million series 2013C toll road refunding revenue bonds and $607 million series 2013D forward delivery toll

road refunding revenue bonds In addition Standard amp Poors assigned its BB+ long-term rating to the agencys

approximately $207 million series 2013B junior lien toll road refunding revenue bonds At the same time Standard amp

Poors affirmed its BBB- long-term and underlying rating (SPUR) on the agencys existing toll road revenue bonds The

outlook on all ratings is stable

In our opinion specific credit risks include the agencys

High debt levels and a debt service schedule that increases by a 35 average annual rate through 2036

Recent negative operational performance with traffic down 57 in fiscal 2010 and 04 in fiscal 2011 flat growth

in 2012 and a 16 decrease in year-to-date fiscal 2013

Uncertainty regarding the elasticity of tolls and managements financial forecast plans small annual toll increases

throughout the forecast period (although recent toll increases have increased revenues)

Uncertainty regarding the Foothill South toll road extension project which may require substantial additional debt

and

Slim aggregate coverage levels and the subordinate nature of the of the junior lien bonds

We believe these risks are partly mitigated by a service area with high wealth levels high traffic on free highways and a

population that is reliant on the highway network

The 2013 bonds are being issued to refund and restructure existing debt The 2013C bonds are expected to be refunded

by the forward delivery 2013D bonds Upon closing of the 2013D forward refunding bonds in October 2013 the agency

will have approximately $24 billion in outstanding debt including

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RatingsDirect

Research

Foothill-Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency California Toll Roads Bridges 11-Jun-2013

6282013 439 PM

Current Ratings

Credit Profile

US$14300 mil current interest bnds ser 2013A due 06302053

Long Term Rating BBB-Stable New

US$6500 mil current interest bnds ser 2013C due 06302047

Long Term Rating BBB-Stable New

US$6070 mil forward delivery bnds ser 2013D due 06302047

Long Term Rating BBB-Stable New

US$2070 mil junior lien bnds ser 2013B due 06302047

Long Term Rating BB+Stable New

Rationale Standard amp Poors Ratings Services assigned its BBB- long-term rating to the Foothill-Eastern Transportation

Corridor Agency (FETCA or agency) Califs approximately $143 billion series 2013A toll road refunding revenue

bonds $650 million series 2013C toll road refunding revenue bonds and $607 million series 2013D forward delivery toll

road refunding revenue bonds In addition Standard amp Poors assigned its BB+ long-term rating to the agencys

approximately $207 million series 2013B junior lien toll road refunding revenue bonds At the same time Standard amp

Poors affirmed its BBB- long-term and underlying rating (SPUR) on the agencys existing toll road revenue bonds The

outlook on all ratings is stable

In our opinion specific credit risks include the agencys

High debt levels and a debt service schedule that increases by a 35 average annual rate through 2036

Recent negative operational performance with traffic down 57 in fiscal 2010 and 04 in fiscal 2011 flat growth

in 2012 and a 16 decrease in year-to-date fiscal 2013

Uncertainty regarding the elasticity of tolls and managements financial forecast plans small annual toll increases

throughout the forecast period (although recent toll increases have increased revenues)

Uncertainty regarding the Foothill South toll road extension project which may require substantial additional debt

and

Slim aggregate coverage levels and the subordinate nature of the of the junior lien bonds

We believe these risks are partly mitigated by a service area with high wealth levels high traffic on free highways and a

population that is reliant on the highway network

The 2013 bonds are being issued to refund and restructure existing debt The 2013C bonds are expected to be refunded

by the forward delivery 2013D bonds Upon closing of the 2013D forward refunding bonds in October 2013 the agency

will have approximately $24 billion in outstanding debt including

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6282013 439 PM

$180 million in series 1995A bonds

$142 billion in series 2013A bonds

$607 of series 2013D bonds and

$207 million of junior lien 2013B bonds

A pledge of toll revenues from the Foothill-Eastern system net of operating expenses secures the outstanding toll

revenue bonds with toll revenues first applied to the senior 1995A bonds and with the 2013D bonds subordinate to all

outstanding debt Interest on the series 1995A bonds is capitalized through 2032 Development impact fees (DIF) are

also pledged to the series 2013 bonds subject to the agencys right to use $25 million of fee revenues for any lawful

purpose during each semi-annual period ending July 15 or Jan 15

Through fiscal 2007 traffic and toll revenues on the Foothill-Eastern toll road system have met or slightly exceeded

projections in the 1999 traffic and revenue study however recently the system has experienced declines putting both

traffic and revenue below the 1999 forecast starting in 2009 through 2012 Traffic has declined or been flat every year

since 2007 with a total decline of 17 from fiscal 2007 to fiscal 2012 Most of the traffic decline occurred in 2008

through 2010 and traffic in 2011 and 2012 was flat Traffic year to date in 2013 is down 16 although revenue

performance has improved due to toll increases Revenues declined 38 in 2008 and 81 in 2009 Revenues

increased 6 in 2010 05 in 2011 and 70 in 2012 due to two toll increases The agency also increased tolls for

2013 and year to date toll revenues are up 4 Revenues have responded well to recent toll increases and we view the

willingness to increase tolls by management as a positive credit factor however they could depress traffic trends going

forward depending on the elasticity of tolls as tolls are forecast to increase annually through the forecast According to

the latest traffic and revenue (TampR) study the road is operating below the revenue maximization toll level and tolls could

be increased resulting in a 14 increase in revenues in 2035 under a revenue maximization scenario We will monitor

annual toll increases and traffic levels and any signs that the agency has reached its revenue maximization toll level

would be a credit risk

Financial performance has weakened as recent traffic declines have affected revenues and decreased coverage

Coverage was 175x in fiscal 2007 154x in fiscal 2008 139x in 2009 136x in 2010 and 138x in 2011 The agencys

debt is structured with escalating debt service which requires future toll revenue growth to provide coverage under the

rate covenant The agency has been escrowing a portion of the debt service each year since 2009 to maintain the

required coverage of 13x Based on the 2013 budget the agency escrowed $135 million in debt service and expects

coverage of 132x The coverage in 2013 without the escrow account is expected to be 114x Based on the preliminary

2014 budget the agency has escrowed $19 million in debt service and expects budgeted coverage at 132x The 2014

budget does not reflect the refunding and restructuring of debt service

The series 2013 refunding is restructuring debt service and extending the final maturity from 2040 to 2053 Prior to the

restructuring debt service increased by a 44 average annual rate through 2040 to a maximum annual debt service

(MADS) of approximately $298 million Under the proposed restructuring scenario the final maturity is extended to 2053

and the aggregate (senior and junior lien) debt service grows at a slower though still ascending rate of approximately

35 through 2036 and then debt service is level at approximately $193 million through 2043 and then is lowered (after

the junior lien bonds final maturity) to approximately $179 million through 2053 The maximum annual aggregate debt

service post restructuring is more than $100 million lower compared to existing debt service and ascends at a lower rate

We believe the restructured debt service provides the agency additional flexibility and better matches the debt service

schedule with forecasted revenues We did not view the recent practice of escrowing of debt service as sustainable and

the restructured debt service and financial forecast provided by management does not require the use of escrowed

funds going forward to maintain coverage requirements To test the sensitivity to lower revenues we estimated the

reduction in revenues that would bring aggregate coverage down to approximately 10x This reduction in revenues was

approximately 17 which resulted in coverage of approximately 10x in 2015 A stress scenario provided by

management that held land use constant until 2020 implying zero economic growth resulted in a reduction in revenues of

27 in 2020 which results in coverage of approximately 109x in 2020 The agency has also pledged development

impact fee revenue above $25 million during any semi-annual period and the forecast above does not include any

potential revenue from this source DIF revenues have ranged from approximately $2 million to $31 million since 2000

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The potential revenue from this source adds additional financial flexibility to the agency We view the steady annual

increases forecasted in traffic and financial performance as a credit risk given the potential for unforeseen lower

economic conditions or other factors that could negatively impact traffic and cause the agency to underperform the

financial forecast Financial performance below forecast would be a credit risk and could lead to a lower rating

Average weekday transaction peaked in 2007 at 211580 and according to the latest TampR study the agency is expected

to surpass the 2007 peak in 2020 This anticipates average growth of approximately 4 per year from 2014 to 2020 with

slower growth in the early years After 2020 average weekday transactions growth declines until it reaches 1 per year

starting in 2026 Throughout the forecast tolls are forecast to increase annually -- resulting in 6 average annual

revenue growth through 2025 and before growth drops to approximately 4 annually The financial forecast of coverage

ranges from 136 to 187x on the senior lien through 2026 and 120x to 166x on an aggregate basis including both

senior and junior lien debt with the low in 2015 in both cases While we view these levels as adequate for the rating level

given the mature nature of the road and the strength of the region any declines in traffic or financial performance below

forecast could result in a lower rating

The agencys liquidity position is good in our view relative to its operating expenses As of March 31 2013 unrestricted

cash totaled $1176 million representing more than 1900 days operating funds

The agency plans to construct an extension to Foothill known as Foothill South a 16-mile southern segment leading

from the current Foothill toll road terminus to Interstate 5 near the San Diego County border However on Feb 6 2008

the California Coastal Commission rejected certification of the project a decision that the US Commerce Department

upheld on Dec 18 2008 We understand that the agency has not abandoned its plans and is currently working with

stakeholders and exploring options including other alignments The agency is also currently evaluating a shorter

five-mile extension referred to as the Tesoro Project which extends the existing Foothill corridor to the south In our view

the potential still exists for substantial new debt to finance extensions although details are very uncertain at this time If

any extension moves forward we will evaluate the associated traffic and revenue study and financing structure to

determine its impact on the finances of Foothill-Eastern However we view the ability to add additional debt as limited at

the current rating level given the low aggregate coverage levels in the near term

Outlook The stable outlook reflects our expectation that traffic and toll revenue will perform as forecast in the consultant TampR

study resulting in coverage as forecast in managements financial forecast Given the agencys high leverage and

escalating debt service schedule we do not expect to raise the rating during the two-year outlook period Declines in

traffic or drop in revenue that results in reduced debt service coverage below managements financial forecast could lead

to a lower rating Additional debt associated with expansion projects that increase operational and financial risk could

also pressure the rating

Issuer And Toll Road System The FETCA is a joint powers agency organized under an agreement among Orange County and 12 cities within it The

agency is empowered to construct and operate the Foothill Transportation Corridor the Eastern Transportation Corridor

and to establish and collect tolls to finance the cost of construction and toll collection The FETCA currently has 15

members on its board of directors (one member per city and three from the county) The FETCA is a sister agency to

the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agency which administers another toll facility in the county The two

agencies generally referred to as the TCAs (transportation corridor agencies) share staff but are two separate joint

powers agencies and have different board members based on the relevant member cities along each road

The FETCA is an approximately 36-mile toll road corridor comprising three different highways State Route 241 State

Route 261 and a portion of State Route 133 The longest highway segment is SR 241 a 24-mile road extending

southeastward from SR 91 in Anaheim to Oso Parkway (the current southern terminus) in Rancho Santa Margarita Two

segments each approximately 5 miles in length extend off of SR 241 and SR 261 The operating portions of the Foothill

and Eastern toll roads are owned and operated by Caltrans FETCA owns and operates the toll collection and revenue

management system on the roads FETCA has planned to construct a southern segment to the Foothill corridor known

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6282013 439 PM

as Foothill South to connect the current southern terminus to Interstate 5 near the San Diego County border However it

is uncertain whether this project will be pursued as planned after the plan was denied approval by the California Coastal

Commission -- a decision that was upheld in December 2008 by the US Department of Commerce

Bond Provisions The series 1995 and 2013 bonds are secured by a pledge of toll revenues from the FoothillEastern system net of

operating expenses with toll revenues first applied to the senior 1995 bonds Interest on the series 1995A bonds is

capitalized through 2032 Development impact fees are additionally pledged to the series 2013 bonds subject to the

right of the agency to use $25 million of the fee revenue for any lawful purpose during each semi-annual period ending

June 30 or Dec 31 The development impact fees are based on development within the area of benefit of the

FoothillEastern system and are assessed so that future development contributes a share of the FoothillEastern system

construction costs in proportion to the usage generated by the development The senior lien rate covenant is 130x and

115x on all bonds including the junior lien Failure to achieve such rate is not a violation of the covenant if the agency

employs a traffic and revenue consultant and implements the recommendations The debt service reserve fund for each

lien will be cash funded at the least of the three IRS tests and the senior lien reserve will be based on aggregate debt

service of the 1995 and 2013 bonds Amounts on deposit in the senior lien reserve fund will be applied for the purpose of

paying the principal of or interest on first the series 1995 bonds and then the 2013 senior lien bonds and any other

senior lien bonds

Related Criteria And Research USPF Criteria Toll Road And Bridge Revenue Bonds June 13 2007

Ratings Detail (As Of 11-Jun-2013)

Foothill-Eastern Transp Corridor Agy 2nd lien

Long Term Rating BBB-Stable Affirmed

Foothill-Eastern Transp Corridor Agy 1st ln

Unenhanced Rating BBB-(SPUR)Stable Affirmed

Many issues are enhanced by bond insurance

Primary Credit Analyst Todd R Spence Dallas (1) 214-871-1424 toddspencestandardandpoorscom

Secondary Contact Mary Ellen E Wriedt San Francisco (1) 415-371-5027 maryellenwriedtstandardandpoorscom

No content (including ratings credit-related analyses and data valuations model software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified reverse engineered reproduced or distributed in any form by any means or stored in a database or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Standard amp Poors Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively SampP) The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes SampP and any third-party providers as well as their directors officers shareholders employees or agents (collectively SampP Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy completeness timeliness or availability of the Content SampP Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise) regardless of the cause for the results obtained from the use of the Content or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user The Content is provided on an as is basis SampP PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE FREEDOM FROM BUGS SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS THAT THE CONTENTS FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION In no event shall SampP Parties be liable to any party for any direct indirect incidental exemplary compensatory punitive special or consequential damages costs expenses legal fees or losses (including without limitation lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages

Credit-related and other analyses including ratings and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact SampPs opinions analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase hold or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions and do not address the suitability of any security SampP assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill judgment and experience of the user its management

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6282013 439 PM

employees advisors andor clients when making investment and other business decisions SampP does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such While SampP has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable SampP does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives

To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes SampP reserves the right to assign withdraw or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion SampP Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment withdrawal or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof

SampP keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities As a result certain business units of SampP may have information that is not available to other SampP business units SampP has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process

SampP may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors SampP reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses SampPs public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites wwwstandardandpoorscom (free of charge) and wwwratingsdirectcom and wwwglobalcreditportalcom (subscription) and wwwspcapitaliqcom (subscription) and may be distributed through other means including via SampP publications and third-party redistributors Additional information about our ratings fees is available at wwwstandardandpoorscomusratingsfees

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Copyright copy 2013 Standard amp Poorrsquos a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies All Rights Reserved

5 of 5

Fitch Ratings | Press Release httpwwwfitchratingscomcreditdeskpress_releasesdetailcfmprint

Fitch Rates CAs FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Revs BBB-BB Outlook Stable Ratings Endorsement Policy 14 Jun 2013 544 PM (EDT)

Fitch Ratings-Chicago-14 June 2013 Fitch Ratings has assigned the following ratings to the FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor Agency (FETCA or the agency) CA

--Second senior lien toll road refunding revenue bonds series 2013 BBB- --Junior lien toll road refunding revenue bonds series 2013B BB

The Rating Outlook is Stable for all bonds

KEY RATING DRIVERS

--Limited Traffic Profile The FoothillEastern Transportation Corridor (FETC or the facility) serves as a highway connection for commuters in Orange and Riverside Counties Traffic has grown only marginally over the last decade due to seven mostly above inflationary toll increases since fiscal 2000 Future growth potential is limited in part by the narrow corridor in which development can take place Revenue Risk Volume Midrange

--Price Sensitive Commuter Traffic The FETCA has limited economic rate-making flexibility as current toll rates are close to the revenue maximization point The average toll rate is higher than peers at more than 30 cents per mile It is Fitchs view that inflationary increases are achievable over time A history of pro-active decisions by management to raise rates is a credit strength Revenue Risk Price Weaker

--Back Loaded and Long Dated Debt The revised debt service schedule which extends debt by 13 years is better tailored to the risks of the project and provides growing financial flexibility The debt service profile increases steadily to maximum annual debt service of $193 million (down from $297 million) in fiscal 2042 The agencys various reserves for debt service are projected to remain healthy at $217 million in fiscal 2013 There are no cross default or acceleration provisions which protect the senior debt Debt Structure Risk Midrange (senior lien) Weaker (junior lien)

--Growing Financial Flexibility The FETCA is dependent on continued toll rate increases and traffic and revenue growth throughout the life of the debt to maintain coverage levels at or above 130x In fiscal 2012 the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) was 142x utilizing $164 million of the escrow defeasance fund (EDF) and 117x without the assistance The Fitch base case combined seniorjunior lien DSCRs indicate a minimum of 119x in fiscal 2014 and an average of 152x through 2053 without use of the EDF The agencys various reserves totaling $604 million in fiscal 2013 serve as a key mitigant to weak short-term financial performance Total leverage is high at 23x Debt Service Risk Midrange (senior lien) Weaker (junior lien)

--Manageable Approved Capital Program The FETC corridor is less than 15 years old and does not currently have any material state of good repair needs The agencys fiscal 2013-2014 capital improvement program (CIP) is small at $47 million A large portion of the CIP has not received the necessary environmental permits or record of decisions to proceed The State of Californias obligation to maintain the physical assets and a covenant to budget for capital expenditures annually provides some protection Infrastructure DevelopmentRenewal Risk Stronger

RATING SENSITIVITIES

--Weaker traffic growth than projected by the traffic and revenue consultant over a sustained period

--Toll rate increases that are materially below inflation for a sustained period

--A decision to increase leverage to support the Foothill South project without commensurate financial mitigants

--Dependence on the EDF for a prolonged period of time to meet the 130x115x rate covenants

6282013 228 PM 1 of 3

Fitch Ratings | Press Release httpwwwfitchratingscomcreditdeskpress_releasesdetailcfmprint

The ratings are subject to execution of the Caltrans Cooperative Agreement in substantially its current form Should the proposed transaction close Fitch will withdraw the existing ratings on the outstanding series 1995 and 1999 bonds excluding the 2035 maturity of the 1995 bonds that is not planned to be refunded The current rating on these bonds is BBB- with a Negative Outlook

SECURITY

The bonds are secured by a pledge of net revenues and certain other pledged revenues such as development impact fees (DIF) FETCA has the right to withdraw up to $5 million DIFs to be used for any lawful purpose

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

The agency is restructuring its debt to create more credit stability and capacity for future investment in expansion projects The proposal includes second senior series 2013A C and D bonds and junior lien series 2013B bonds with a 13x and 115x rate covenant respectively These bonds will refinance the $22 billion in outstanding series 1999 bonds Importantly a default on the junior lien bonds shall not cause an event of default on the senior lien bonds In addition one maturity on the senior series 1995 bonds will remain as this will not be refunded

The FETCA is a joint power authority with its sister agency the San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agency (SJTCA) that was formed by the California legislature in 1986 to plan finance construct and operate Orange Countys public toll road system The FoothillEastern corridor fully open in 1999 is 36-miles long comprising of State Routes (SR) 241 261 and 133 while the SJTCA is a separate and distinct legal entity that manages the 15-mile SR 73 toll road (Newport Beach to southwest Orange County) A common staff manages both agencies but the projects are governed by separate boards are financed independently and funds cannot be commingled The agencies appointed both a new CEO and CFO in the last seven months

Contact

Primary Analyst Emari Wydick Analytical Consultant +1-312-606-2308 Fitch Ratings Inc 70 W Madison Street Chicago IL 60602

Secondary Analyst Daniel Adelman Analyst +1-312-368-2082

Committee Chairperson Cherian George Managing Director +1-212-908-0519

Media Relations Elizabeth Fogerty New York Tel +1 (212) 908 0526 Email elizabethfogertyfitchratingscom

Additional information is available at wwwfitchratingscom

Applicable Criteria and Related Research --Rating Criteria for Infrastructure and Project Finance (July 12 2012) --Rating Criteria for Toll Roads Bridges and Tunnels (Aug 2 2012)

Applicable Criteria and Related Research Rating Criteria for Infrastructure and Project Finance Rating Criteria for Toll Roads Bridges and Tunnels

Additional Disclosure Solicitation Status

6282013 228 PM 2 of 3

Fitch Ratings | Press Release httpwwwfitchratingscomcreditdeskpress_releasesdetailcfmprint

ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK HTTPFITCHRATINGSCOM UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS IN ADDITION RATING DEFINITIONS AND THE TERMS OF USE OF SUCH RATINGS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE AGENCYS PUBLIC WEBSITE WWWFITCHRATINGSCOM PUBLISHED RATINGS CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE FROM THIS SITE AT ALL TIMES FITCHS CODE OF CONDUCT CONFIDENTIALITY CONFLICTS OF INTEREST AFFILIATE FIREWALL COMPLIANCE AND OTHER RELEVANT POLICIES AND PROCEDURES ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FROM THE CODE OF CONDUCT SECTION OF THIS SITE FITCH MAY HAVE PROVIDED ANOTHER PERMISSIBLE SERVICE TO THE RATED ENTITY OR ITS RELATED THIRD PARTIES DETAILS OF THIS SERVICE FOR RATINGS FOR WHICH THE LEAD ANALYST IS BASED IN AN EU-REGISTERED ENTITY CAN BE FOUND ON THE ENTITY SUMMARY PAGE FOR THIS ISSUER ON THE FITCH WEBSITE

Copyright copy 2013 by Fitch Ratings Inc Fitch Ratings Ltd and its subsidiaries

6282013 228 PM 3 of 3

Pro Forma

FOOTHILLEASTERN TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR AGENCY

Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes For years 2013 to 2023

(In thousands)

in Net Deficit

Exhibit 12 Foothill‐Eastern Transportation

Pro‐Forma Financials Corridors Agency

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

226850

17186

1371

0 245407

11171

4802

4409

3634

3071

1896

1387

1442

992

422

289

493 34009

211397

23968

(106891)

(54795)

(121448)

(2485)

0 (137718) (99966)

73679 111432 (903627) (655871) (829948) (544440)

Operating Revenues Tolls fees and fines27

Development impact fees1

3 Other revenues 5 Grant revenues

Total operating revenues

Operating Expenses Toll compliance and customer service48

8 Salaries and wages Toll systems48

Depreciation4

Toll collections48

Contribution of capital improvements to Caltrans8

Marketing4

Toll facilities48

Insurance8

Professional services8

Facilities operations maintenance and repairs8

8 Other operating expenses Total operating expenses

Operating income

Nonoperating revenue (expenses) Investment income6

Interest expense (existing debt service)101112

Principal payment (existing debt service)1314

Interest expense (refinancing)101112

Principal payment (refinancing)1314

Settlement expense recovery net9

Nonoperating expenses net (existing debt service) Nonoperating expenses net (refinancing)

Change in net deficit (existing debt service) Change in net deficit (refinancing)

Net deficit at beginning of year (existing debt service) Net deficit at beginning of year (refinancing) Net deficit at end of year (existing debt service) Net deficit at end of year (refinancing)

$ 114715

11613

601

0 126929

7233

3332

3128

3034

2151

12847

1030

918

708

337

187

385 35290

91639

9497

(132872)

(4540)

(132872)

(4540)

118

(127797) (127797)

(36158) (36158) (1378798) (1378798) (1414956)

$ (1414956)

122948

4752

1342

376

129418

7222

3469

3130

2625

2175

1370

1002

784

717

305

209

356 23364

106054

27190

(89690)

(11390)

(89690)

(11390)

0 (73890) (73890)

32164 32164 (1414956) (1414956) (1382792) (1382792)

133298

9271

1200

252

144021

8100

3573

3371

2704

2309

1411

1032

998

739

314

215

367 25133

118888

23968

(88990)

(15705)

(88990)

(15705)

0 (80728) (80728)

38161 38161 (1382792) (1382792) (1344631) (1344631)

133426

11885

1200

72 146583

8562

3680

3379

2785

2354

1453

1063

1105

761

324

222

378 26065

120517

23968

(87918)

(25160)

(91584)

0

0 (89111) (67617)

31407 52901 (1344631) (1344631) (1313224) (1291731)

136131

13407

1218

0 150756

8819

3791

3480

2868

2425

1497

1095

1138

783

333

228

389 26847

123909

23968

(86452)

(30205)

(96906)

0

0 (92690) (72939)

31220 50970 (1313224) (1291731) (1282004) (1240760)

143836

14836

1236

0 159909

9083

3904

3585

2954

2497

1542

1128

1172

807

343

235

401 27653

132256

23968

(84579)

(42990)

(98846)

0

0 (103602) (74879)

28655 57377 (1282004) (1240760) (1253350) (1183383)

153948

18668

1255

0 173870

9356

4022

3692

3043

2572

1588

1162

1207

831

354

242

413 28482

145388

23968

(94377)

(18513)

(100826)

0

0 (88923) (76859)

56465 68529 (1253350) (1183383) (1196885) (1114853)

164865

20401

1274

0 186540

9637

4142

3803

3134

2649

1636

1196

1244

856

364

250

425 29337

157203

23968

(111477)

(20587)

(104346)

0

0 (108097) (80379)

49106 76824 (1196885) (1114853) (1147779) (1038029)

177189

21186

1293

0 199667

9926

4266

3917

3228

2729

1685

1232

1281

882

375

257

438 30217

169451

23968

(79159)

(57272)

(107570)

(435)

0 (112463) (84038)

56987 85413 (1147779) (1038029) (1090791) (952616)

191619

21654

1312

0 214585

10223

4394

4035

3325

2811

1735

1269

1319

908

386

265

451 31123

183462

23968

(102905)

(43584)

(110897)

(890)

0 (122521) (87820)

60940 95642 (1090791) (952616) (1029851) (856975)

202756

16429

1332

0 220516

10530

4526

4156

3425

2895

1788

1307

1359

936

398

273

464 32057

188459

23968

(127302)

(23640)

(114316)

(1380)

0 (126974) (91728)

61486 96731 (1029851) (856975) (968365) (760243)

214999

16815

1352

0 233166

10846

4662

4280

3528

2982

1841

1347

1400

964

410

281

478 33019

200147

23968

(134950)

(24426)

(117833)

(1910)

0 (135409) (95776)

64739 104372 (968365) (760243) (903627) (655871)

FOOTHILLEASTERN TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR AGENCY

Pro Forma Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit For years 2013 to 2023

(In thousands)

Notes

1 DIF figures for FY2013 to FY2023 derived from Development Impact Fee Study Appendix D Table 13 Project Net DIF Revenues 2013 ‐ 2035 figures are net amp calculated by subtracting the projected DIF credit drawdown amount from the gross DIFs in each year

2 FY2014 to FY2023 projections for tolls fees and fines are based on FETCA coverage model amp does not include other revenues which is a separate line item 3 Other Revenues figures generated from FETCA coverage model Other Revenues and Expenses tab

4 Expense categories to grow at CAGR of 3 for pro forma forecast (will be applied to all projections unless projected figures are provided by other source such as FETCA coverge model Stantec TampR Study Official Statement amp FETCA FY2014 Proposed Budget)

5 Assumption that grants revenues will not be provided in future following FY2014 6 FY2013 to FY2023 investment income figures based on arithmetic mean from FY2004 to FY2012 CAFRs 7 FY2013 figure derived from Table 7‐1 of Stantec TampR Study amp revenue figures from the Official Statement under the section Historical Operating Revenues and Debt Service Coverage figure is equal to projected annual revenue for gross AET plus projected account maintenance fees projected interest earnings amp projected violation penalty revenue other revenues is a separate line item amp therefore not included as is in the FETCA coverage model 8 FY2013 amp FY2014 figures provided by FETCA estimated actuals amp budget within the Official Statement Operating Expenditures for Toll Operations section 9 Settlement expense recovery net assumed to be zero for all projected FYs 10 FY2018 to FY2023 existing debt service interest expense figures amp FY2014 to FY2023 refinancing Interest expense figures are net amp include all interest payments CAPI amp revenue guarantee fund (RGF) amounts less principal payments derived from FETCA coverage model accrued interest only calculated into FY2011 assumption that forward closes in all refinancing projections 11 FY2011 interest expense figure provided by FETCA 2012 CAFR includes accrued interest but not principal payments 12 FY2012 to FY2017 existing debt service interest expense figures amp FY2012 to FY2013 refinancing interest expense figures derived from FETCA 2012 CAFR does not include accrued interest 13 Principal payments are not income statement line items these are derived from the FETCA coverage model amp are displayed to help portray the overall savings benefits from the refinancing 14 FY2011 to FY2013 principal payments derived from FETCA 2012 CAFR

Additional Information Pg 64 of Official Statement displays detailed notes regarding Operating Expenditures for Toll Operations

• 1 Summary and Recommendations
• 2 Introduction
• 31 Purpose of Financial Advisor Evaluation
• 32 Activities Conducted in Evaluation
• 33 Disclaimer
• 4 Review of Prior Work
• 5 Agency Restructuring Plan
• 6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study
• 7 Rating Agency Reports
• 8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements

FOOTHILLEASTERN TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR AGENCY

Pro Forma Statement of Revenues Expenses and Changes in Net Deficit For years 2013 to 2023

(In thousands)

Notes

1 DIF figures for FY2013 to FY2023 derived from Development Impact Fee Study Appendix D Table 13 Project Net DIF Revenues 2013 ‐ 2035 figures are net amp calculated by subtracting the projected DIF credit drawdown amount from the gross DIFs in each year

2 FY2014 to FY2023 projections for tolls fees and fines are based on FETCA coverage model amp does not include other revenues which is a separate line item 3 Other Revenues figures generated from FETCA coverage model Other Revenues and Expenses tab

4 Expense categories to grow at CAGR of 3 for pro forma forecast (will be applied to all projections unless projected figures are provided by other source such as FETCA coverge model Stantec TampR Study Official Statement amp FETCA FY2014 Proposed Budget)

5 Assumption that grants revenues will not be provided in future following FY2014 6 FY2013 to FY2023 investment income figures based on arithmetic mean from FY2004 to FY2012 CAFRs 7 FY2013 figure derived from Table 7‐1 of Stantec TampR Study amp revenue figures from the Official Statement under the section Historical Operating Revenues and Debt Service Coverage figure is equal to projected annual revenue for gross AET plus projected account maintenance fees projected interest earnings amp projected violation penalty revenue other revenues is a separate line item amp therefore not included as is in the FETCA coverage model 8 FY2013 amp FY2014 figures provided by FETCA estimated actuals amp budget within the Official Statement Operating Expenditures for Toll Operations section 9 Settlement expense recovery net assumed to be zero for all projected FYs 10 FY2018 to FY2023 existing debt service interest expense figures amp FY2014 to FY2023 refinancing Interest expense figures are net amp include all interest payments CAPI amp revenue guarantee fund (RGF) amounts less principal payments derived from FETCA coverage model accrued interest only calculated into FY2011 assumption that forward closes in all refinancing projections 11 FY2011 interest expense figure provided by FETCA 2012 CAFR includes accrued interest but not principal payments 12 FY2012 to FY2017 existing debt service interest expense figures amp FY2012 to FY2013 refinancing interest expense figures derived from FETCA 2012 CAFR does not include accrued interest 13 Principal payments are not income statement line items these are derived from the FETCA coverage model amp are displayed to help portray the overall savings benefits from the refinancing 14 FY2011 to FY2013 principal payments derived from FETCA 2012 CAFR

Additional Information Pg 64 of Official Statement displays detailed notes regarding Operating Expenditures for Toll Operations

• 1 Summary and Recommendations
• 2 Introduction
• 31 Purpose of Financial Advisor Evaluation
• 32 Activities Conducted in Evaluation
• 33 Disclaimer
• 4 Review of Prior Work
• 5 Agency Restructuring Plan
• 6 Stantec Traffic and Revenue Study
• 7 Rating Agency Reports
• 8 Review of Agencyrsquos Financial Statements