1

Foot and Mouth Diseasein the UK (Surrey)

SCoFCAH 19 October 2007

2

Agenda

• Information as at 17:00 17 Oct 2007• History of 8 IPs and epidemiology• Additional measures• Surveillance• Domestic movement controls

3http://www.defra.gov.uk/footandmouth

4

ay

local

Animal

Heal

5

August cluster

• 3 Aug: IP1 (3 locations)• 6 Aug: IP2 (3 locations)• Virus only found at 1 location in each case• 3 contact herds culled• 24 Aug: PZs lifted• 8 Sep: SZ lifted• Origin: contamination from Pirbright site• Virus: O1 BFS

6

7

September ClusterConfirmation dates

• IP3, 12 Sep• IP4, 13 Sep • IP5, 17 Sep• IP6, 21 Sep• IP7, 24 Sep• IP8, 30 Sep

8

9

InfectionTim

eline –Septem

ber Cases

Day of outbreak

23

45

67

89

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

3132

3334

3536

3738

3940

4142

4344

4546

4748

4950

5152

5354

5556

5758

59D

ay of outbreak

Date

04/08

05/08

06/08

07/08

08/08

09/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

13/08

14/08

15/08

16/08

17/08

18/08

19/08

20/08

21/08

22/08

23/08

24/08

25/08

26/08

27/08

28/08

29/08

30/08

31/08

01/09

02/09

03/09

04/09

05/09

06/09

07/09

08/09

09/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

13/09

14/09

15/09

16/09

17/09

18/09

19/09

20/09

21/09

22/09

23/09

24/09

25/09

26/09

27/09

28/09

29/09

30/09

01/10

Date

Day

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Day

Source w

indow

for IP4B

Source w

indow for

IP4B

Day 0 IP

4BD

ay 0 IP4B

Spread w

indow

for IP4B

Spread w

indow for

IP4B

Source w

indow

for IP4B

Source w

indow for

IP4B

Day 0 IP

4BD

ay 0 IP4B

Spread w

indow

for IP4B

Spread w

indow for

IP4B

Source w

indow

for IP3B

*S

ource window

for IP

3B

Day 0 IP

3B*

Day 0 IP

3B

Spread w

indow

for IP3B

*S

pread window

for IP

3B

Source w

indow

for IP3C

Source w

indow for

IP3C

Day 0 IP

3CD

ay 0 IP3C

Spread w

indow

for IP3C

Spread w

indow for

IP3C

Source w

indow

for IP6B

Source w

indow for

IP6B

Day 0 IP

6BD

ay 0 IP6B

Spread w

indow

for IP6B

Spread w

indow for

IP6B

Source w

indow

for IP7

Source w

indow for

IP7

Day 0 IP

7D

ay 0 IP7

Spread w

indow

for IP7

Spread w

indow for

IP7

Source w

indow

for IP8B

Source w

indow for

IP8B

Day 0 IP

8BD

ay 0 IP8B

Spread w

indow

for IP8B

Spread w

indow for

IP8B

Day of outbreak

23

45

67

89

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

3132

3334

3536

3738

3940

4142

4344

4546

4748

4950

5152

5354

5556

5758

59D

ay of outbreak

Date

04/08

05/08

06/08

07/08

08/08

09/08

10/08

11/08

12/08

13/08

14/08

15/08

16/08

17/08

18/08

19/08

20/08

21/08

22/08

23/08

24/08

25/08

26/08

27/08

28/08

29/08

30/08

31/08

01/09

02/09

03/09

04/09

05/09

06/09

07/09

08/09

09/09

10/09

11/09

12/09

13/09

14/09

15/09

16/09

17/09

18/09

19/09

20/09

21/09

22/09

23/09

24/09

25/09

26/09

27/09

28/09

29/09

30/09

01/10

Date

Day

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Tue

Wed

Thu

Fri

Sat

Sun

Mon

Day

KE

Y- range of uncertainty in age of lesions

- most likely source w

indow

- range of uncertainty in source window

- most likely day zero date

- range of uncertainty in spread window

- most likely spread w

indow

*N

ote: On IP

3B, 28 out of 29 cattle found to be negative on serology. T

herefore, expert opinion confirms that lesions ages m

ust be five days or less.N

ote: Expert opinion on IP

7 confirms age of lesions at 5 days

Note: IP

8 date of 1st lesions (Wednesday 26 S

eptember 2007) aw

aiting final confirmation from

IAH

Pirbright staff.

PS

= Pirbright site

IP3

IP 4IP 3

IP4 IP5

IP 5

IP6BIP7

IP6BIP7

IP8B

IP8B

IP4B

day

0IP

4B m

ost likely spread window

30/08 to 15/09

IP3B

most likely source w

indow

24/08 to 05/09IP

3B

Day

IP3B

most likely spread w

indow

06/09 to 14/09

IP4B

most likely source w

indow20/08 to 01/09

IP3C

source window

26/08 to 07/09IP

3C

Day

IP3C

most likely spread w

indow08/09 to 16/09

IP5

day 0

IP5 m

ost likely spread window

12/08 to 21/09

IP5 m

ost likely source window

06/08 to 18/08

IP6B

D

ay

IP6B

most likely spread w

indow16/09 to 23/09

IP 7

Day

IP6B

source window

03/09 to 15/09

IP7 source w

indow05/09 to 17/09

IP7 m

ost likely spread window

18/09 to 25/09

IP8 m

ost likely spread window

25/09 to 01/10

IP 8

Day

IP8 source w

indow12/09 to 24/09

10

Clinical disease on each IPDistribution of Day 0 lesions on all IPs

IP1

IP1

IP1

IP1

IP1

IP1

IP1

IP1

IP2

IP2

IP2

IP2

IP2

IP2

IP2

IP2

IP5

Shee

p

IP5

Cat

tle IP5

Cat

tle

IP5

Cat

tle

IP4B

IP4B

IP4B

IP4B

IP4B

IP4B

IP3B

IP3B

IP3B

IP3B

IP3B

IP3B

IP3C

IP3C

IP7IP7 IP7

IP7IP7IP6B

IP6B

IP8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

25.7.

0727

.7.07

29.7.

0731

.7.07

2.8.07

4.8.07

6.8.07

8.8.07

10.8.

0712

.8.07

14.8.

0716

.8.07

18.8.

0720

.8.07

22.8.

0724

.8.07

26.8.

0728

.8.07

30.8.

071.9

.073.9

.075.9

.077.9

.079.9

.0711

.9.07

13.9.

0715

.9.07

17.9.

0719

.9.07

21.9.

0723

.9.07

25.9.

0727

.9.07

Date

Num

ber o

f ani

mal

s w

ith D

ay 0

lesi

ons

IP1 IP2 IP5 Sheep IP5 Cattle IP4B IP3B IP3C IP7 IP6B IP8

11

Infected Premises 5

• Detected 16 September. No acute signs.• 17 out of 22 cattle with 4-5 week old lesions.

All seropositive, virus negative.• 15 out of 16 sheep seropositive; 10 with old

lesions. • 2 pigs – no lesions; seronegative, virus

negative.• Confirmed 17 September. Single location.

12

Links between IPs

PIRBRIGHT

FACILITIES20 Jul

to

08 Aug

IP2Infectious from

27 Jul to

09 Aug

IP3BInfectious from

06 Sep to

14 Sep

IP4BInfectious from

02 Sep* to

15 Sep

IP3CInfectious from

08 Sep to

16 Sep

IP1Infectious from

22 Jul to

09 Aug IP5Infectious from

19 Aug* to

21 Sep

IP6BInfectious from

15 Sep to

23 Sep

IP7Infectious from

18 Sep to

25 Sep

IP8BInfectious from

25 Sep to

1 Oct

13

Additional Culling

• 160 cattle + 1 goat on 4 holdings(5 locations) within 3km of IP8

• Likely to be exposed to infection and incubating disease

• Laboratory tests negative

14

15

Reinforced biosecurity

• Livestock keepers• General public

16

Census in PZ and SZ

17

18

100%ESA 4

97%ESA3b

100%ESA 3a

100%ESA 2

100%ESA 1

% Visits completedEnhanced Surveillance Area

Enhanced Surveillance

19

Tracings

20

Report cases of Suspect FMD

As of 12:00, 18 October

• Confirmed: 8• Negated: 197• Under investigation: 1

Total: 208

21

Suspect Case Reports 2007

22

23

Vehicle movements from Pirbright

24

Abattoir surveillance

Intensified AME & PME (August-September)

– 347,656 cattle– 2,495,320 sheep– 1,336,396 pigs– 8,162 deer– 862 goats

25

Clinical Inspections at welfare visits (as at 11 October)

• 283 groups of animals on-farm• 235 groups of animals at markets

26

Pre-movement licensing inspections of pigs

• 945 Certificates• 1 887 456 animals

27

28

Developments this week

17 October• PZ surveillance completed and lifted • Restricted zone reduced to ‘8 counties’

29

30

Summary

• 8 IPs, 2 clusters in Surrey. Very low risk that infection has spread outside this area

• Unlikely that contaminated meat or other products are in circulation

• Intensive surveillance well beyond minimum requirements of Directive

• Over 12 000 surveillance samples tested with negative results (except sheep on IP5)

• Tracings from IPs, PZs, SZs negative• Nationwide monitoring through report cases,

abattoirs, welfare and licensing inspections.

31