Foot and Mouth Disease and its effect on milk yield: a preliminary economic analysis on small and medium

livestock holders in Pakistan

Giancarlo Ferrari, Luca Tasciotti, Ali Kiani, Ehtisham Khan

GTFS/INT/907/ITA AGAH/EMPRES

FAO, Rome

Outline

• FMD

• Impact on milk production • Crude assessment of the economic cost

• Its importance in endemic settings

Context

• The data have been collected in the framework of the activities of the FAO GTFS/INT/907/ITA project (“Controlling Trans-boundary animal disease in Central Asian countries”);

• One component of the activities under the PCP-FMD;

• Study period: November 2010 – May 2011

• Similar study with a slight different approach is on-going in Afghanistan;

Objectives

• The main objective of the study was to assess the impact of clinical FMD on lactating animals

• To estimate the amount of immediate economic

loss

Methods

• The sample studied consisted of 50 households (in

Punjab, Sindh and Islamabad Capital Territory), where FMD outbreaks were initially suspected on the basis of clinical signs and subsequently confirmed (either through a lateral flow device or laboratory confirmation);

Methods

• The sample was composed by:

• 34 householders keeping both buffaloes and cattle

• 7 householders keeping only buffaloes

• 9 householders keeping only cattle

Composition by species and age

< 1 yrs 1_2 yrs >2 yrs < 1 yrs 1_2 yrs >2 yrs

Only-buffa loes households

7 31 (4.4) 14 (2) 64 (9.1) 0 0 0

Only-cattle households

9 0 0 0 37 (4.1) 31 (3.4) 95 (10.5)

TOTAL 50 129 102 304 110 110 302

73 (2.1) 79 (2.3) 207 (6)

Number Number of buffaloes (age groups) Number of cattle (age groups)

Households mixed

Animal composition by species and age-groups (mean values in parenthesis)

34 98 (2.9) 88 (2.6) 240 (7)

Methods

• The period of follow-up for each lactating head was 60 days with data collected at day 1, 3, 7, 10, 15, 30 and 60 (the total follow-up period in each household was approximately 70 days);

• The milk production was measured at the usual way keepers would measure when selling;

• Clinical FMD cases were also registered among non-lactating heads.

Results

• In total 72 milking cows and 125 milking buffaloes with clinical FMD were enrolled;

• Vaccination status of each individuals was not

precisely known.

Frequency of clinical cases

Cumulative proportion (in %) of animals that developed clinical signs (on average 70 days of observation period)

Age-group 0_1 1_2 >2 0_1 1_2 >2

Total n. of animals 129 102 304 110 110 302

Proportion clinically affected 55,55% 50,00% 43,16% 74,12% 73,33% 56,30%

Buffaloes Cattle

Production level pre and post FMD onset

day 1 day 3 day 7 day 10 day 15 day 30 day 60Average 9.09 2.49 1.87 1.97 2.24 2.9 4.4 5.46

Standard deviation 3.22 1.70 1.32 1.40 1.53 1.80 2.19 2.66

Pre-FMDPost-FMD

Cattle milk production pre and post FMD infection

day 1 day 3 day 7 day 10 day 15 day 30 day 60Average 8.91 3.06 2.14 2.25 2.64 3.08 4.24 6.1

Standard deviation 2.82 1.76 1.48 1.54 1.69 1.78 2.01 2.81

Pre-FMDPost-FMD

Buffalo milk production pre and post FMD infection

Production level pre and post FMD

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Pre-

FMD

day

2da

y 4

day

6da

y 8

day

10da

y 12

day

14da

y 16

day

18da

y 20

day

22da

y 24

day

26da

y 28

day

30da

y 32

day

34da

y 36

day

38da

y 40

day

42da

y 44

day

46da

y 48

day

50da

y 52

day

54da

y 56

day

58da

y 60

Cattle

Buffaloes

Results

• The reduction is still

consistent after 2 months (end of follow-up), approximately 30 percent less of the pre-clinical FMD period.

Rawalpindi (Pakistan). September 2011

Results

• In order to compare the losses with the potential production we have assumed that both cattle and buffalos would have produced the same amount of milk recorded in the pre-FMD period;

• For the post-FMD, we have taken the average between two successive pairs of observation (1-3; 3-7; 7-10, 10-15, 15-30 and 30-60) and applied those values to each of the days within the pairs for which we did not have data (the assumption is a linear trend).

Results

Total amount of milk for 60 days – without FMD scenario Total amount of milk for 60 days – with FMD scenario Difference in milk production

Total 545.69 238.04 307.65 (56.38%)

Total 534.43 250.05 284.39 (53.21%)

Cattle

Buffalo

Results

• The price paid to livestock keepers varies from 0.48 to 0.60 USD/liter (for fresh cow milk) and from 0.50 to 0.70 USD/liter (for buffalo milk)

• The total estimated loss (in USD) amounts to

• 72 (lactating cows) * 307.65 * 0.54 = 11961.43

• 126 (lactating buffaloes) * 284.39 * 0.60 = 21499.88

• Total milk loss estimated value = 33461.32 USD

Consideration 1

• The number of doses (per year) of a good quality

trivalent FMD to be administered to the total number of animals (n=1057) included in this study was calculated as 2353 (considering 3 doses for animals less than 1 year old and 2 doses for each animal older than 1 year)

Consideration 1

• Under the assumption of a cost per injection

equivalent to 1.5 USD (vaccine and administration), the total amount needed for having the population in the sample covered is 3529 USD

• The ratio between the estimated economic loss and the cost to prevent the disease is 9.48

Consideration 2

• Additional costs not considered:

• Treatment costs

• The estimation is based on a follow-up period of 60 days

during which the initial level of production were not re-established.

Thoughts

• Is FMD important for livestock keepers in endemic settings?

• In Afghanistan PDS activities were carried out in 20 provinces and more than 4000 livestock keepers were interviewed;

• 220 villages; • FMD ranked first both in terms of prevalence and

importance (second ranked PPR)

Provinces visited by PDS team

Thoughts

• In Tajikistan PDS activities were carried out throughout the country in approximately 300 villages

• FMD ranked first both in terms of prevalence and importance (second ranked PPR)

Tajikistan: Prevalence and importance of FMD according to PDS 2005-2007

Thoughts How common is FMD? Summary of the overall (crude) results (level of FMD-NSP antibodies) at village level (2009 campaign)

Country

Age group 1 Age group 2 Age group 3

tested p tested p tested p

Afghanistan 1015 54.3% 1027 50.9% 1117 58.9%

Pakistan 1279 15.3% 1280 24.2% 1280 42.1%

Tajikistan 948 43.9% 942 43.7% 998 46.9%

Turkmenistan 499 36.5% 659 40.7% 1078 55.8%

Uzbekistan 963 9.3% 957 6.8% 960 8.2%

Thanks