food,flavour&ingredients outlook2012

Food Flavors and IngredientsOutlook 2012, 9th Edition

January 2012

Packaged Facts11200 Rockville PikeRockville, Maryland 20852

800.298.5294 t240.747.3095 fwww.packagedfacts.com

Copyright 2012 by Packaged Facts

All rights reserved. Packaged Facts content may not be published, posted, distributed or displayed in any form or by any means except within the purchaser guidelines explicitly established by MarketResearch.com, or with prior written permission from Packaged Facts. Any unauthorized posting of Packaged Facts content onto document-sharing websites is prohibited. Copyright infringement is a violation of federal law subject to criminal and civil penalties.

Company Background

Packaged Facts is a trusted provider of authoritative consumer market research. For over 30 years, our in-depth research, expert analysis and personalized client support have helped business professionals make the right strategic decisions.

Why Buy From Us?

In-depth researchexpert analysis. Our reports are written by analysts with years of experience as professionals working in the industries that they now cover. This experience and our time-intensive research methodology result in authoritative analysis that aids the decision-making processes of our clients. Our reports continue to provide a broad, top-level overview of a market and offer not only the raw data, but focus on interpretation of that data to make it more relevant and usable by our clients.

The right informationat the right time.

From identifying the effects of emerging markets across major industries, to covering the trends in niche markets, our reports are timely. Our editorial team tracks the trends that will shape these markets in the coming months, and years. Packaged Facts provides the expert analysis our clients have come to rely on to make the right strategic decisions, at the right time.

Products you needwith flexibility in pricing and delivery you want.

We offer a breadth of products that includes both in-depth Market Profiles with expansive coverage of a specific topic, and MarketLooks, which offer concise summaries of our popular full-length studies. With Buy By The Slice, you save money by purchasing smaller section(s) of a report (when you don't need the entire report) which you can read immediately online. Instant Online Delivery is a unique online delivery method that enables you to purchase, read and use the research you need immediately.

Personalized Client Support

Packaged Facts is unrivaled in the level of client support that we provide to our clients. From assistance in identifying the most relevant research, to post-sale question and answer support, our goal is to develop long-term relationships that meet the ongoing needs of our clients.

Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012, 9th Edition January 2012

Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012, 9th Edition has been prepared by Packaged Facts. We serve consumer product and service companies and allied businesses in the United States and internationally with a complete line of research publications. Packaged Facts market intelligence reports are designed to aid the executive decision-maker by providing essential data and concise analysis with a focus on marketplace trends, consumer insights, and emerging opportunities.

Vice President of Publishing Don Montuori Research Director and Publisher David Sprinkle Author Elaine Tecklenburg

Publication Date January 2012

LA6488932

All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced without permission of the publisher.

Copyright 2012 Packaged Facts

This page intentionally left blank

Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012 Table of Contents

January 2012 Packaged Facts i


January 2012 Packaged Facts i

Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Executive Summary .................................................. 1Scope ................................................................................................. 1Key Drivers ........................................................................................ 1

Forever Frugal and Trading Down ............................................................ 2The Downwardly Mobile Middle Class ...................................................... 3Going to Extremes .................................................................................... 4

A Look Back and Ahead ................................................................... 4Ethnic and Regional Enticements ................................................... 4Produce Predominates ..................................................................... 5Trend Watching 2012 ........................................................................ 5Flavor and Ingredient Crossovers ................................................... 6Making Healthy Easier ...................................................................... 6Beverages Breaking Through .......................................................... 7Protein: Lean and Luscious ............................................................ 7Sexy Sandwiches .............................................................................. 8Sweet Treats ...................................................................................... 8

Chapter 2:Ethnic and Regional Enticements .......................... 11

Beyond Korean & Korean Fusion .................................................. 12Peruvian Progressing ..................................................................... 13Southern Revival ............................................................................. 15Celebrating U.S. Regional Ingredients.......................................... 17Mexican Misconceptions: Appealing to the Hispanic

Population ................................................................................... 17What Foodies Want: U.S. Cities with Ethnic Food Appeal ........ 18

Table 2-1: Top U.S. Destination Cities with Ethnic Food Appeal ........... 19Providence - Portuguese Roots Plus Peculiar Pleasantries ...... 20

Santa Fe Specialties ............................................................................... 20 Chapter 3: Produce Predominates ........................................... 23

Heirlooms: Starting with Old, Very Old, Seeds ........................... 23Ratcheting Up Real with Fresh Fruits and Vegetables ............ 24

Table of Contents Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012

ii Packaged Facts January 2012


ii Packaged Facts January 2012

Produce Promises at Progressive Fast Casuals .................................... 25Juicing It Up ........................................................................................... 26Produce Pronto: On-the-Go and At Home ............................................. 26Fruit & Veggies On-the-Go .................................................................... 26Salad and Cook-Ready Veggies: Available On Demand ....................... 27

Popular Produce ............................................................................. 28Greens ................................................................................................... 29Turnips ................................................................................................... 29Specialty Mushrooms............................................................................. 30

Vegetables: The New Luncheon Meat? ........................................ 30Potato Appeal .................................................................................. 31Vegetables From the Sea ............................................................... 32Edible Plants from the Wild ........................................................... 33Bountiful Fruits ............................................................................... 33

Sensational Superfruits .......................................................................... 34Trendy Tropicals .................................................................................... 34Tangy Citrus .......................................................................................... 35Apples Abound ...................................................................................... 35

Food Stamps = Plethora of Produce ............................................. 36Farmers Markets: Too Many, Too Few, Time for Something

New? ............................................................................................ 37Table 3-1: Number of Operating Farmers' Markets in the

United States ..................................................................................... 37CSAs and Farmers Markets Collaborators or Competitors? .............. 39

Supermarket Produce Getting More Local ................................ 39Supermarket Produce Aisle THE Place to Be ........................... 41Veggies, Veggies Everywhere Except the Diet? ....................... 42

Chapter 4: Trend Watching 2012 ............................................... 45

New Crop of Young Farmers ......................................................... 45Historic Gastronomy: Recreating Recipes of Olde .................... 47Linner & Brinner: Millennials Redefine Eating ............................. 48New Market Formats for DIY Food Crafts ..................................... 50Gourmet Gadgets Goofy or Godsends? .................................... 50

Perfecting Mini Pies ............................................................................... 50Whoopie Pies Go Wild ........................................................................... 51Serious Stuff for Sous Vide Fans ........................................................... 52Panini Press On ..................................................................................... 53Yonanas: Going Bananas ..................................................................... 53


January 2012 Packaged Facts iii


January 2012 Packaged Facts iii

New Twists in Food Tourism ......................................................... 54Agritourists Seek Farmer Chefs ............................................................. 54Tour de Compost .................................................................................... 54Home is Where the Chicken Roosts ....................................................... 55

Future Food: Dinner for 7 Billion! ........................................ 55Breadfruit Believers Battle Bland ............................................................ 56Betting on Bug Bites ............................................................................... 56Vampires, Line Up .................................................................................. 57

Crossovers: Ingredients in Unexpected Places ......................... 58Duck Fat: Good for You, or Just Good? ................................................ 58Desserts Get Peppered Up .................................................................... 59Pretzel Power ......................................................................................... 60Waffles - Unwavering ............................................................................. 62Luxurious Layering ................................................................................. 63

Combos and Value Meals in New Places ..................................... 63 Chapter 5:Making Healthy Easier ............................................ 65

Plate2 vs. Pyramid ........................................................................... 65Figure 5-1: USDA Choose MyPlate Icon for Communicating

2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans .............................................. 66Harvard: Healthy Eating Plate ................................................................ 67Figure 5-2: Harvard School of Public Health Proposed Healthy

Eating Plate Icon ................................................................................ 68Managing Weight Still a Hefty Task ........................................... 69Making Dining Out More Nutritious ............................................... 71

Ronalds Reckoning: Reinvention Triumphs Over Retirement ............... 71The Power of Peer Pressure: Kids LiveWell Program ........................... 72Dietitians The New Menu Celebrities? ................................................ 73

Consumers Nutrition Concerns .................................................... 74Gluten-Free Going Gangbusters ................................................... 74Vexing Vitamins .............................................................................. 75Defining Beauty ............................................................................... 76Explosive Energy ............................................................................ 77

Chapter 6: Mostly, Friendlier Fats ............................................ 81

Preindustrial Fats Pure Pleasure................................................ 81Artisanal Butter ....................................................................................... 81


iv Packaged Facts January 2012


iv Packaged Facts January 2012

Healthier and Heavenly .................................................................. 83Specialty Seed, Nut and Vegetable Oils ....................................... 84

Pumpkin Seed Oil .................................................................................. 84Avocado Oil ........................................................................................... 85Nut Oils .................................................................................................. 85

Chapter 7: Beverages Breaking Through ................................. 87

Smoothies: More Shaking & Stirring ............................................ 87Table 7-1: Recently Launched U.S. Retail Smoothie Products ............. 89

Jazzing Up the Juice ....................................................................... 89Juice Bar Makeover Revolution or Evolution? .................................... 89Retail Market - Less Juicy? .................................................................... 91Drink Your Vegetables! .......................................................................... 93

DIY Beverages Get Personal .......................................................... 93Customized Concentrates ...................................................................... 94Portable Powder Sticks Still Popular ...................................................... 94Getting Personal, At Home .................................................................... 95

Chapter 8: Protein: Lean and Luscious .................................... 97

Seafood ............................................................................................ 97Retailers Increasingly Committed to Sustainability ................................ 98Boat-to-Table: Hi Tech Enabled ............................................................. 99Canned Tuna Under Attack .............................................................. 100The Dietary Guidelines & Seafood Consumption ................................. 101Savoring Small, Oily Fish ..................................................................... 101

Poultry Preoccupation .................................................................. 102Chasing Chickens ................................................................................ 102Tantalizing Turkey ............................................................................... 103Pies Not Just for Dessert .................................................................. 104

Bye, Bye Boxed Beef! ................................................................... 105Sizzling Sausages ......................................................................... 105

Ethnic Dogs ......................................................................................... 106If It Aint In a Casing, it isnt worth tasting. ......................................... 107Sausage Stats ..................................................................................... 107Corn Dogs ............................................................................................ 108

Boastful Burgers Can You Top This? ...................................... 108Mighty Meat Combos ........................................................................... 109Seafood Combos ................................................................................. 109Utmost Umami ..................................................................................... 109


January 2012 Packaged Facts v


January 2012 Packaged Facts v

Chapter 9:Sexy Sandwiches .................................................. 111Burgers Beware! ........................................................................... 111

Haute Sandwiches................................................................................ 111Glamorous Grilled Cheese Getting Cheesier .................................... 112Scanwich: Sandwiches as Art .............................................................. 114Super Convenient Sandwiches ............................................................ 115Popovers The Next Sandwich Ingredient? ........................................ 116

Chapter 10: Sweet Treats ........................................................ 117

Classics Redefined ....................................................................... 117Luscious Layer Cakes Return ..................................................... 118Puddings with Pizazz .................................................................... 119Crisps, Cobblers and Other Baked Fruit Desserts .................... 119Petite Pies and Other Pleasing Permutations ............................ 120Worldly Butter Cakes .................................................................... 121

Kouign Amann: Move Over, Macarons! ............................................... 121Ooey, Gooey Spreads Beyond Saint Louie .......................................... 122The British Are Coming! ....................................................................... 123

Newly Fashioned Nostalgic Flavors............................................ 123Butterscotch ......................................................................................... 124Lemon & Lime ...................................................................................... 124Pear ...................................................................................................... 124Corn ...................................................................................................... 125

Ice Cream Indulgences ................................................................. 125

Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012 Chapter 1: Executive Summary

January 2012 Packaged Facts 1



Chapter 1 Executive Summary

Scope

Whether or not there is a double dip recession or the Euro Zone financial crisis spills over onto U.S. shores, the economic picture for 2012 appears bleak, at best. Feeling the squeeze, both the employed and out-of-work will continue to practice the frugal behaviors adopted during the Great Recession of 2008 while also attempting to incorporate healthy food choices into their daily routines. Seeking to overcome the boredom of extended frugality, consumers will especially value creative attempts by manufacturers, retailers, and foodservice operators to affordably introduce variety, comfort and indulgence to their taste experiences. As in years past, the goal of this report is to identify and discuss the flavor and ingredient trends expected to have a major impact in 2012 on food consumed both at home and away.

Key Drivers

The unemployment rate, expected to remain high or approach double digits if the country slips back into recession, will be the biggest factor affecting the economy and consumer confidence in 2012. Wage stagnation, high gas prices, higher food prices, continued decline in home values and European financial woes contributed to eroding consumer confidence that encouraged honing frugal purchasing habits in the second half of 2011. Seventy-two percent of consumers surveyed by Symphony IRI Group in 2011 said the economy had farther to fall before hitting bottom.

For the foodservice sector in particular, consumer confidence will be crucial in 2012. Senior

Vice President of Research and Information Services Division of the National Restaurant Association, Hudson Riehle, stated that 2011 is the best operating environment for restaurateurs out of the past four-year period. With 7% increase in wholesale food costs and 2% increase in menu inflation, effective cost control is the reason.

"From the restaurant industry perspective, the less anxious consumers are, the better it is for

the industry. Consumer confidence is still down in the 20% to 30% range in some parts of the country. You would like to see that around 80% or higher. But this is all linked to getting a job and with the unemployment rate being as high as it is consumer confidence remains low." (Foodservice Equipment & Supplies, Sept. 1, 2011)




Scope


Key Drivers









Scope


Key Drivers






Chapter 1: Executive Summary Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012

2 Packaged Facts January 2012



As Baby Boomers worry more about retirement and cut back on eating out, some foodservice

operators will increasingly focus on the preferences of Millennials and Next Generations for driving trends. (Foodservice Equipment & Supplies, Sept. 1, 2011) However, young Americans are having an even harder time finding jobs than other age groups. Through October 2011, unemployment of 18 and 19 year olds was about 23% and for 20 to 24 year olds it was nearly 15% as compared with the national rate of 9%. The NPD Group reported that for the year ended May 2011, young people between 18 and 24 visited restaurants an average of 192 times, down from 245 times five years ago, whereas all potential customers visited 196 times as compared with 208 times in 2006. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1, 2011)

While it does not appear that food inflation will increase in 2012 and may actually begin to

ease, retailers were slow to pass along price increases in 2011, especially compared with restaurants. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food rose 0.4% in September 2011, following on a 0.5% increase in August with the biggest gain (1.2%) for dairy and related products followed by a 0.9% increase for cereals and bakery products, the same for fruits and vegetables, with apples and tomatoes showing big increases, and meats, poultry, fish and eggs rising 0.4%, with the index for eggs having risen sharply. (www.foodbusinessnews.net, Oct. 19, 2011) In terms of wholesale prices, in October 2011 choice beef was up 18%, pork was up 31% and milk futures prices were up 29% as compared with a year ago. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1, 2011)

Retail food prices in 2012 will largely be dictated by the late summer and fall weather in the

American Midwest. (USDA Economic Research Service, Sept. 23, 2011; www.foodnavigator-usa.com, July 27, 2011) HIS Global Insight Senior Economist Chris Christopher summed up the economic situation by saying, Consumers are fragile, fatigued, and fed up. There is also a belief that these consumers will be forever frugal (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 4, 2011)

Forever Frugal and Trading Down

When it comes to food at home and away, consumer frugality continues to manifest itself in ever more ways that include shopping from a list, buying less, trading down, using coupons, delaying and combining trips (explaining why Target Corporation has added more basic foods to all its stores) to cut back on gasoline usage, forgoing impulse buying and even small discretionary purchases, and doing more shopping at bulk food stores and dollar stores. In addition, 2012 is likely to see continued paycheck-cycle shopping, whereby consumers buy large quantities right after getting paid, and then switch to buying smaller package sizes as



As Baby Boomers worry more about retirement and cut back on eating out, some foodservice

operators will increasingly focus on the preferences of Millennials and Next Generations for driving trends. (Foodservice Equipment & Supplies, Sept. 1, 2011) However, young Americans are having an even harder time finding jobs than other age groups. Through October 2011, unemployment of 18 and 19 year olds was about 23% and for 20 to 24 year olds it was nearly 15% as compared with the national rate of 9%. The NPD Group reported that for the year ended May 2011, young people between 18 and 24 visited restaurants an average of 192 times, down from 245 times five years ago, whereas all potential customers visited 196 times as compared with 208 times in 2006. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1, 2011)

While it does not appear that food inflation will increase in 2012 and may actually begin to

ease, retailers were slow to pass along price increases in 2011, especially compared with restaurants. The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food rose 0.4% in September 2011, following on a 0.5% increase in August with the biggest gain (1.2%) for dairy and related products followed by a 0.9% increase for cereals and bakery products, the same for fruits and vegetables, with apples and tomatoes showing big increases, and meats, poultry, fish and eggs rising 0.4%, with the index for eggs having risen sharply. (www.foodbusinessnews.net, Oct. 19, 2011) In terms of wholesale prices, in October 2011 choice beef was up 18%, pork was up 31% and milk futures prices were up 29% as compared with a year ago. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1, 2011)

Retail food prices in 2012 will largely be dictated by the late summer and fall weather in the

American Midwest. (USDA Economic Research Service, Sept. 23, 2011; www.foodnavigator-usa.com, July 27, 2011) HIS Global Insight Senior Economist Chris Christopher summed up the economic situation by saying, Consumers are fragile, fatigued, and fed up. There is also a belief that these consumers will be forever frugal (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 4, 2011)

Forever Frugal and Trading Down

When it comes to food at home and away, consumer frugality continues to manifest itself in ever more ways that include shopping from a list, buying less, trading down, using coupons, delaying and combining trips (explaining why Target Corporation has added more basic foods to all its stores) to cut back on gasoline usage, forgoing impulse buying and even small discretionary purchases, and doing more shopping at bulk food stores and dollar stores. In addition, 2012 is likely to see continued paycheck-cycle shopping, whereby consumers buy large quantities right after getting paid, and then switch to buying smaller package sizes as





money starts to run out. The protracted economic doldrums of the last few years have resulted in more ways for consumers to trade down. In addition to switching to private label brands, smaller, cheaper packages of favorite branded items are increasingly available. And consumers will continue to seek out deals and new value offerings.

As reported in the fourth quarter of 2011, Symphony IRI found that nearly 75% of consumers

now shop with lists as compared with 45% in 2008, 20% of grocery sales are private label, up from 15% before the recession and 44% of consumers shop more at bulk food stores. As consumer budgets shrink further, products that were once considered essentials are now luxury items.

Spending on kids, typically resilient during recessions, has been showing signs of declining.

Recently, diaper sales have been dropping off while sales of diaper rash ointment have increased. Consumer Edge Research has determined that volume sales of diapers lost 1% in the four weeks ending September 4, 2011 as compared with the same period a year ago (excluding Costco Wholesale Corporation and Wal-Mart) while dollar sales dropped 3%. The data suggest that consumers are both reducing purchases and trading down to less expensive private label brands. Kimberly-Clark brand Huggies saw dollar sales drop 4% and P&G Pampers and Luvs brands declined 2.5% during this time period. Symphony IRI Group estimated that shoppers are purchasing approximately 10% less than they did before the recession, with the number of items on hand in pantries and medicine cabinets declining from 511 to 467. (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 4, 2011)

The Downwardly Mobile Middle Class

The coming year will see more food manufacturers and retailers targeting the growing numbers of high and low end consumers instead of focusing on the shrinking middle class. Much of this is the result of shrinking budgets of the former middle class, now planting them squarely in the group of low income consumers. The growth of both the low end and high end consumers has been dubbed the Consumer Hourglass Theory by Citigroup, and consumer product manufacturers and some retailers already catering to low-income consumers include Dollar General Corporation, P&G, and H.J. Heinz Co.

According to Phyllis Jackson, P&G Vice President of Consumer Market Knowledge for

North America, the Gini Index, a widely accepted measure of income inequality, now looks similar for the United States, Mexico and the Philippines. In order to grow their businesses in the current environment, manufacturers will change the way they do research, and will



money starts to run out. The protracted economic doldrums of the last few years have resulted in more ways for consumers to trade down. In addition to switching to private label brands, smaller, cheaper packages of favorite branded items are increasingly available. And consumers will continue to seek out deals and new value offerings.

As reported in the fourth quarter of 2011, Symphony IRI found that nearly 75% of consumers

now shop with lists as compared with 45% in 2008, 20% of grocery sales are private label, up from 15% before the recession and 44% of consumers shop more at bulk food stores. As consumer budgets shrink further, products that were once considered essentials are now luxury items.

Spending on kids, typically resilient during recessions, has been showing signs of declining.

Recently, diaper sales have been dropping off while sales of diaper rash ointment have increased. Consumer Edge Research has determined that volume sales of diapers lost 1% in the four weeks ending September 4, 2011 as compared with the same period a year ago (excluding Costco Wholesale Corporation and Wal-Mart) while dollar sales dropped 3%. The data suggest that consumers are both reducing purchases and trading down to less expensive private label brands. Kimberly-Clark brand Huggies saw dollar sales drop 4% and P&G Pampers and Luvs brands declined 2.5% during this time period. Symphony IRI Group estimated that shoppers are purchasing approximately 10% less than they did before the recession, with the number of items on hand in pantries and medicine cabinets declining from 511 to 467. (Wall Street Journal, Oct. 4, 2011)

The Downwardly Mobile Middle Class

The coming year will see more food manufacturers and retailers targeting the growing numbers of high and low end consumers instead of focusing on the shrinking middle class. Much of this is the result of shrinking budgets of the former middle class, now planting them squarely in the group of low income consumers. The growth of both the low end and high end consumers has been dubbed the Consumer Hourglass Theory by Citigroup, and consumer product manufacturers and some retailers already catering to low-income consumers include Dollar General Corporation, P&G, and H.J. Heinz Co.

According to Phyllis Jackson, P&G Vice President of Consumer Market Knowledge for

North America, the Gini Index, a widely accepted measure of income inequality, now looks similar for the United States, Mexico and the Philippines. In order to grow their businesses in the current environment, manufacturers will change the way they do research, and will





develop and market their products differently. One of the big challenges for manufacturers developing products to target the high end include getting comfortable with estimating and working with lower volumes and still retaining a high level of appeal. At the low end, the cost challenges can be formidable and a good understanding of these consumers is key. Dollar General Corporations efforts targeting low income consumers has rewarded them with steady sales growth while their discount rivals such as Target Corporation and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. have failed to keep pace.

Going to Extremes

Consistent with the Occupy Wall Street Protests led by The Other 99%, fed up consumers may also show more occasional rebelliousness or defiance when it comes to finding enjoyable, affordable (frugal) food and beverage choices in 2012. Consumers are weary after four years of deprivation. They are looking for variety and indulgence in the context of their new scaled back reality that may be satisfied by seemingly clashing, outlandish, extreme, strong, huge and otherwise in-your-face flavors and ingredients.

A Look Back and Ahead

To follow is a snapshot of the food flavors and ingredient trends Packaged Facts predicts will be important in 2012. Where possible, comparisons are made with the trends anticipated for 2011.

Ethnic and Regional Enticements

2011: Packaged Facts expected that with the increase in food trucks there would be a wider assortment of ethnic foods available featuring the specialties of the individual entrepreneurs, with particular focus on South American cuisines of various types. Japanese food, especially yakatori, was identified to lead the Asian food trend, with Indian and Korean food also gaining ground. A new found interest in Scandinavian cuisine was anticipated.

2012: Packaged Facts predicts that fusion will be the primary trend for the coming year when it comes to ethnic food, particularly in relation to food trucks, with Korean influences especially strong. In particular, Packaged Facts expects kimchi to be worked into nearly every ethnicity including and especially American fare. It is anticipated there will be more interest in all aspects of Peruvian cuisine, well beyond ceviche and seafood, including greater appreciation for potato dishes. The flavors and ingredients of Southern cooking will be big,




Going to Extremes










Going to Extremes










Going to Extremes











with improvisation or customization to incorporate international influences, especially those of Central and South America, or the local and regional tastes of the locale where it is on offer. Food processors will continue the trend to source ingredients and label foods from a specific state or region (e.g. Vermont cheddar, Northwest raspberries).

Produce Predominates

2011: It was predicted that there would be continued growth in directly marketed local and organic produce and locally processed foods sold via farmers markets and CSAs. Urban farming was expected to become more common, with more fresh produce readily available for city dwellers, including those residing in food deserts. More multi-farm collaboration agreements were anticipated, resulting in extended CSAs with new ways of taking advantage of local foods consistent with the farm-to-table movement.

2012: While urban farming is expected to remain popular and there will be more small farmers working fields, Packaged Facts expects the growth in farmers markets to slow with increased concern that there are too many and, more generally, insufficient infrastructure to satisfy the growing demand for locally grown, directly marketed food. It is anticipated that more locally grown food will be available and promoted through conventional supermarkets as well as portable, single-serve ready-to-eat fresh fruit and vegetable snacks. For home use, more recloseable packaging, cooking bags and salad kits containing vegetables are expected on the marketplace. In foodservice, more creative, vegetable-centric sandwiches and center-of-the-plate items are likely. Winter squash, turnips, specialty mushrooms and greens of all sorts, especially various kale varieties are predicted to gain in popularity along with huckleberries, gooseberries and cloudberries.

Trend Watching 2012

2011: Last year Packaged Facts predicted that the food craft DIY movement would gain momentum and that breakfast would become more important. More skewered foods of all ethnic types, specialty vinegars and functional and creatively flavored chewing gum were expected to create excitement. Major countertrends anticipated were the growing use and featuring of sea salt in the face of sodium reduction initiatives and a small niche of foodservice deliberately delivering and blatantly promoting enormous sandwiches and other dishes as the obesity epidemic persisted.







Trend Watching 2012








Trend Watching 2012






2012: Heading into 2012, Packaged Facts expects more Millennial eating 24/7 to blur traditional dayparts and result in novel combinations of savory and sweet ingredients. Interest in historic gastronomy and use of ancient ingredients to develop menus incorporating them is predicted to increase. More approaches to the direct marketing of DIY food crafts will be tested and tried, with the added benefit that new trends will likely be spurred by one-off small products catching attention via social media. It is anticipated that sous vide, Panini, mini pies, whoopie pies and Yonanas popularity will help drive consumer ingredient and food selection in the coming year. In greater competition with foodservice, frozen food manufacturers are likely to find more ways to add value via extra vegetables or entre-dessert combos. An increase in agritourism will get more Americans visiting farms and taking cooking classes while other tours will inform and educate about raising chickens in the city, composting, beekeeping and the like. More exploration of novel food sources to feed the worlds seven billion plus people can be anticipated.

Flavor and Ingredient Crossovers

2011: Packaged Facts predicted that olive oil usage would expand into sweet baked goods and that macaroni and cheese would be used more as a flavor or ingredient for incorporating in other foods. It was anticipated that red velvet would find a home on nearly every part of the menu and aisle of the supermarket and ethnic sauces including sriracha, chimichurri and miso were expected to be found in dishes outside their traditional cuisines.

2012: It can be expected that duck fat usage will be on the rise across all menu categories, including desserts, and in the home kitchen as retail distribution expands. Also expected to appear more on dessert menus are fresh peppers and peppercorns and pretzels. Pretzel mania will continue for another year, with more uses of both hard and soft varieties. Waffles are predicted to follow a similar path with focus on folding, stacking and layering with fillings along with use of small inclusions in the batter.

Making Healthy Easier

2011: Packaged Facts anticipated that food would get more attention as the foundation of health and that wellness activities would be better integrated into overall lifestyle. It was predicted that sodium reduction would represent a huge initiative for both processed food manufacturers and foodservice. Recognition of digestive health as a link to overall good





















health with an increase in yogurt and other probiotic-containing food sales was predicted while sales of gluten free foods were expected to peak.

2012: In response to the long awaited Dietary Guidelines for Americans, Packaged Facts predicts that processed food manufacturers will introduce more products that reflect greater use of whole grains, leaner proteins, including poultry and seafood, more mono and poly-unsaturated fats including specialty oils and more vegetables. New single-serve fresh fruit and vegetable options are expected to boost the nutritional value and drop the caloric content of restaurant meals, especially those at quick serve restaurants targeting kids. Similarly, lower fat milk options, both flavored and plain, are expected to be more readily available. New gluten free items will be developed as line extensions, but no significant growth in the number of product launches is anticipated over 2011. With continued high consumer interest and demand for energy beverages, shots and food products, more manufacturers are likely to enter the market.

Beverages Breaking Through

2012: Packaged Facts anticipates more activity for retail fruit smoothies across multiple categories as manufacturers determine which flavors, textures, convenience factors and value-added ingredients appeal most. Interest in fresh squeezed fruit and vegetable juices and the juice bar concept is expected to rise while retail juice processors address objections to fruit juice consumption raised in the Dietary Guidelines. An upswing is anticipated in the popularity of orange, cherry, coconut and blackcurrant juices as well as flavored and regular lemonade and limeade. Natural ingredients and zero calorie stevia-sweetened juice drinks are likely to be more prevalent, as are retail vegetable juices. Popular flavor sticks for on-the-go and single serve use will focus more on milk and beverages other than water.

Protein: Lean and Luscious

2011: Packaged Facts expected there would be growing interest in local meats, homemade sausage and artisanal bacon. Hi end burgers were predicted to give way to more affordable cuts of beef and more modest burgers adorned by more specialty toppings including house-made or artisan pickles and specialty or regional cheeses and fancy French fries. It was anticipated that free-range and spicy chicken options would be highly appealing and that the sustainability of seafood would gain in importance.





















2012: Packaged Facts predicts there will be greater commitment from foodservice and retailers to offer exclusively sustainable seafood including more trial and promotion of fresh sardines and anchovies. More traceable, local catch is likely to appear on independent and high end restaurant menus. Chicken wings will remain a favorite owing to inventiveness of seasonings, marinades and dipping sauce flavors and watch for turkey burgers, savory pies and pasties to be offered on more restaurant menus. Packaged Facts expects there will be higher demand for more unusual cuts, species and animal parts coincident with the increase in local butcher shops as an outgrowth of the food craft DIY movement. More humanely raised veal will offer new flavor profiles. Affordability and virtually guaranteed great taste will keep sausages and hot dogs popular in 2012 with ethnic interpretations generating interest. Focus on burgers will shift to elaborate toppings of meat and seafood such as oysters and pastrami.

Sexy Sandwiches

2011: Melts, grilled cheese, pulled pork, vegetarian and ethnic sandwiches were expected to be popular.

2012: Packaged Facts predicts more big name chefs will open high end sandwich restaurants featuring local and seasonal ingredients where virtually everything is made fresh, in-house. Newly opened grilled cheese themed restaurants will ensure that these sandwiches are heavily emphasized, and copycat menus at non-themed competitors are likely. Popovers in place of bread and more open-faced sandwiches are anticipated in foodservice, and more frozen and refrigerated sandwiches at retail from major food manufacturers will likely make lunchtime easier.

Sweet Treats

2011: Appreciation for artisanal and retro desserts was expected to be strong with homemade pie and ice cream showing creativity and whoopie pies and macarons battling to take over the cupcake as the top sweet treat. Upscale and highly indulgent embellished ice cream desserts, including milkshakes and floats, were expected to be popular.

2011: Packaged Facts anticipates that updated takes on classic desserts will again be featured, with tall layer cakes growing in popularity. Interest in pies will shift to miniature versions and for fruit pies, varietal and less familiar fruits will be showcased. Butter cake from France and Saint Louis are expected to gain more followers while U.S. adaptations of




Sexy Sandwiches



Sweet Treats






Sexy Sandwiches



Sweet Treats







U.K. Sticky Toffee Pudding will likely appear more on menus. Butterscotch, pear, lemon and lime and corn are predicted to be more common dessert ingredients in the year ahead. Ice cream creations likely to draw attention include updated interpretations of baked Alaska, ice cream sodas and strawberry shortcake stick novelties.

Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012 Chapter 2: Ethnic and Regional Enticements


Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012 Chapter 2: Ethnic and Regional Enticements


Chapter 2 Ethnic and Regional Enticements

Food trucks, social media and advanced smart phone technology will play an increasingly important role in driving trends, both macro and micro, and taste preferences for ethnic foods in 2012. Given the likelihood of continued economic gloom and doom, ethnic foods will offer variety and excitement when the rest of life is humdrum, and many will do so quite affordably.

Before the Internet and abundance of cooking shows, and entire food-focused networks, on television, it was generally accepted that interest in and preference for ethnic foods developed as a result of international travel and visits to ethnic restaurants. Not so anymore. Cooking shows, magazines and recipe websites have more impact. Research conducted by Mintel indicates that 26% of ethnic food lovers were introduced to a new cuisine by TV shows, newspapers or magazines; 25% indicated they were introduced to a new ethnic cuisine as a result of living in a culturally diverse neighborhood; 23% said they tried new ethnic food items after reading cookbook recipes that included ethnic dishes and just 18% said they developed a liking for ethnic cuisine after traveling overseas. (FoodProcessing.com, Sept. 28, 2011)

The extent of flavor fusion will be unprecedented in 2012, perhaps best described by Baum and Whiteman as the whole world on a plate, where flavors clash on purpose. (www.4hoteliers.com, Oct. 20, 2011) There will likely be bifurcation associated with this trend, with low end operators, like food trucks, with little to risk taking this approach, while larger chain operators stick with trends that look certain to have more mass appeal. According to Technomic, the two ethnic foods [for foodservice] with the most potential in the United States are Asian and Mediterranean, while Indian is less certain. Recently launched ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen is an example. (FoodProcessing.com, Sept. 28, 2011) From the perspective of new products launched at retail featuring specific ethnic flavors, data from Innova Market Insights indicates the most popular cuisines for the first half of 2011 were Italian (34%), Indian (14%), Chinese (12%), Thai (10%), Japanese (6%) and Greek (5%). (Food Technology, Oct. 2011)

A recent survey for online deal site LivingSocial conducted with 4,000 consumers in the U.S. top 20 media markets by Mandala Research, LLC found that when it comes to frequency of

Chapter 2: Ethnic and Regional Enticements Food Flavors and Ingredients Outlook 2012




ethnic food consumption, Americans report eating Italian food (65%), Mexican food (62%), Chinese food (59%) and pizza (58%) more than 22 other types of cuisine. Regional preferences were apparent, with Boston preferring Irish food, Atlanta choosing delis, Detroit seeking Middle Eastern food and Seattle gravitating to Vietnamese food. When asked which new ethnic cuisines they had tried most recently, Thai topped the list, ahead of 25 others, with other top mentions being seafood, sushi, Greek, barbecue and Indian food. New York ranked #1 for visits to Italian eateries while Washington, D.C. had the highest number of residents enjoying Ethiopian cuisine. (livingsocial.com, Sept. 15, 2011)

Beyond Korean & Korean Fusion

While LAs famed KogiBBQ trucks are associated with popularizing Korean fusion cuisine with the likes of Korean BBQ tacos and kimchi quesadillas, expect to see Korean influence heading more mainstream in 2012. At least in part this trend owes some of its might to The Kimchi Chronicles that aired on PBS this past year. The host of the series is half Korean Marja Vongerichten, wife of famous restaurateur Jean-Georges Vongerichten of the flagship New York restaurant bearing his name, where no Korean-inspired dishes are served at least not yet. The series explores Korean cuisine with visits to restaurants, markets and home kitchens, providing insight into the variety of flavors in Korean food, highlighting that sometimes they are heavy with garlic and sesame oil, and other times they are lighter with bean pastes and seasoned vinegars, and not all of it spicy. Ms. Vongerichten also authored a Korean cookbook of the same name as the series. (nytimes.com, Sept. 8, 2010)

Building on both the growing popularity of Korean fusion cuisine and kimchi, New Yorks

Kimchi Taco Truck was launched by Phillip Lee and Youngsun Lee early in 2011 offering a mash-up of Korean and other cuisines, especially those long associated with street food classics. According to Phillip Lee, Korean food is still a mystery for a lot of people, so we plan to incorporate Korean items into familiar things like cheese steaks, rice balls and falafel. His goal was to make Korean food accessible and memorable so the general public appreciates its unique and bold flavors. The underlying theme of the truck can be traced to homemade kimchi and barbecue. Every menu item is topped with fresh or sauted kimchi. Menu items include kimchi-infused refried beans over crispy wontons, rice bowl with Korean barbecued beef, kimchi and pico de gallo tacos, falafel kimchi taco and Kim-Cheesesteak. Consistent with the growing trend of mobile restaurants migrating to bricks and mortar, Kimchi Taco plans to open its first restaurant location, Kimchi Grill, in Brooklyn, NY. (kimchitacotruck.com, viewed Oct. 21, 2011)



ethnic food consumption, Americans report eating Italian food (65%), Mexican food (62%), Chinese food (59%) and pizza (58%) more than 22 other types of cuisine. Regional preferences were apparent, with Boston preferring Irish food, Atlanta choosing delis, Detroit seeking Middle Eastern food and Seattle gravitating to Vietnamese food. When asked which new ethnic cuisines they had tried most recently, Thai topped the list, ahead of 25 others, with other top mentions being seafood, sushi, Greek, barbecue and Indian food. New York ranked #1 for visits to Italian eateries while Washington, D.C. had the highest number of residents enjoying Ethiopian cuisine. (livingsocial.com, Sept. 15, 2011)

Beyond Korean & Korean Fusion

While LAs famed KogiBBQ trucks are associated with popularizing Korean fusion cuisine with the likes of Kore

food,flavour&ingredients outlook2012

Documents