Food & Water

Security in

Southern

Africa

Sue Walker

Dept of Soil, Crop &

Climate Sciences

INTRODUCTION

• Water security is capacity of a population to

ensure that they continue to have access to potable

water..

• Food security refers to a household's physical &

economic access to sufficient, safe, & nutritious

food that fulfils dietary needs & food preferences of

that household for living an active & healthy life.

• Security is the degree of protection to safeguard a nation,

union of nations, persons or person against danger,

damage, loss, and crime.

• So here with reference to FOOD & WATER

INTRODUCTION cont.

• 15 SADC countries

Angola, Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo,

Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius,

Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, S. Africa,

Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe

• Population: 273 million

• Pop Growth: <2% per year

• AIDS: 13 million (5.7%)

• Life expectancy: 40-73y

• AIDS orphans: 0.5 million

FOOD SECURITY

food availability,

food access, including purchasing power,

food use, including kind, quantity, quality &

nutritional value of available foodstuff, and

stability of food security over time a/c WHO & FAO & UNDP

FOOD SECURITY IS A FUNCTION OF ...

• factors such as . . . .

– population dynamics;

– biophysical (including climate change);

– land ownership and

– land use,

– agricultural markets,

– trade and investment policies,

– political stability and

– socialization.

• Food security exists when all people, at all times, have

physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and

nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food

preferences for an active and healthy life.

• Food security for a household means access by all

members at all times to enough food for an active, healthy

life.

• Food security includes at a minimum:

I. readily available nutritionally adequate & safe foods,

II. assured ability to acquire acceptable foods in socially

acceptable ways (without emergency food supplies,

scavenging, stealing, or other coping strategies).

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Undernourished

Date % #

1990/92: 32.8% 170mil

2010/12: 26.8% 234 mil

Still highest across world regions

• Least change since 1990s

• Decline by 6%

• Actually higher # people +64mil

In sub-Saharan Africa, modest progress achieved

during 2002–05 was reversed, with hunger rates

rising by 2 % per year since 2007.

RESPONSE TO

INCOME LOSSES AND/OR HIGHER FOOD PRICES

Regional divergences have

markedly different capacities to

deal with economic shocks

• Many African countries were

fully exposed to both price hikes

& global recession,

• with limited access to means &

measures necessary to mitigate

hardships for their populations.

Hardships …

• include a deterioration in dietary quality,

• reduced access to other basic needs such as health & education.

• poor consumers in many countries compromise on quality & diversity of food they consumed by reverting to cheaper & less nutritious foods.

• impacts are difficult to quantify

TYPES OF FOODSTUFFS IN DIET

Sub-Saharan Africa 1990s-2009 Contribution to total dietary energy supply (kcal)

• Not much change in balance

• Cereals dominate (maize)

• Roots & tubers next

• Pulses low

dietary energy availability from cereals,

roots & tubers increased (90/92 to 07/09)

while dietary energy from animal-

source foods & fruits & vegetables was

essentially constant.

Area Maize Harvested (ha)

http://kids.fao.org/agromaps/

Maize Production (Mt)

Maize Yield

(t/ha)

Seasonal Calendar with Critical Events

IPC = Integrated Food Security Phase Classification's Acute Food Insecurity for Household Groups. IPC is tool for food security analysis & decision-support. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table for Household Groups is a standardized scale that integrates food security, nutrition, & livelihood information into a common classification of severity of acute food insecurity outcomes, & can be used to highlight priority areas & populations in need of emergency response that have been identified based on food security analysis.

Could be improved by changes in

planting dates & fertility

Maize

planting dates

• Use crop models to find optimal planting densities, & to match

planting dates for different combinations of rainfall seasons.

• APSIM for central Free State (Nape, 2011)

– showed lower risk & highest yields when maize planted during 1st

half November compared with planted during 1st half January

Maize, Bulawayo

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

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1

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Yield (kg ha-1)

Pro

bab

ilit

y o

f E

xceed

en

ce

Base_High N

CC_High N

Base_Low N

CC_Low N

John Dimes & KCP Rao, ICRISAT

• Use APSIM model

• Duration of season decrease

• Crop choice important

Baseline Climate change

Crop Total biomass (Mg ha 1)

Duration (d)

In-crop rain (mm)

HI Total biomass (Mg ha ̶ 1)

Duration (d)

In-crop rain (mm)

HI

Sorghum

6.4 107 396 0.41 4.7 88 320 0.44

Maize 6.4 129 433 0.29 4.7 107 352 0.28

Groundnut

4.6 122 416 0.42 3.7 106 345 0.37

Pigeonpea

4.3 165 463 0.27 4.4 136 397 0.24

Highest priority is to raise current productivity of small-holder farmer systems as systems are soil fertility constrained NOT water limited

MODELING EXAMPLE

FROM ZIMBABWE

With N

Lo N

WATER SECURITY

Seen in context of availability:

• water scarcity is either lack of enough water (quantity)

or lack of access to safe water (quality) at all times.

• Developing reliable source of safe water is often time

consuming & expensive

• => economic water scarcity.

• lack of water is a problem - simply not enough

• => physical water scarcity.

SOUTHERN AFRICA (14 catchments across 8 countries)

• Total area of 4.7 million km2

• Cultivated land 247 245 km2

• Permanent crops 11 363 km2

• Irrigated 19 460 km2

• Rainfall mainly in summer (October-April), except Cape winter

Mediterranean rainfall.

• Annual average precipitation is 659 mm,

• Range from <100 mm in desert to > 2 000 mm N Mozambique.

• Humid = Malawi (1181 mm/year), 104 inhabitants/km2

• Arid = Namibia (285 mm/year). 2.4 inhabitants/km2

• Evapotranspiration > 3 700 mm/year in Namibia.

• Renewable water resources 262 km3

• Water withdrawals 31km3/y

Annual Rainfall (mm)

Annual Potential ET (mm)

(Julius Nkezeah Ateawung, 2010 Masters, Gent)

Annual Rainfall (mm)

Annual Actual ET (mm)

(Julius Nkezeah Ateawung, 2010 Masters, Gent)

RIVER BASINS

ANNUAL RUNOFF

Annual Runoff (mm)

(Julius Nkezeah Ateawung, 2010 Masters, Gent)

PROPOSED DAMS

TYPES OF WATER ACCOUNTING

• depends on geographical scale required,

& relevant time horizon

• system of Environmental & Economic Accounting for Water

Filling the gap between supply and demand:

• Water cost curve approach

• Participatory groundwater monitoring

Trade in water rights:

• Water accounting based on remote sensing

• Water accounting by product: water footprint concept

• Water accounting for firms: Life Cycle Assessment

WATER SUPPLY vs DEMAND

Managing supply

• Increased water storage

• groundwater development

• Water recycling and re-use

• Pollution control

• Inter-basin transfer and

desalination

Managing demand

• Making more ‘efficient’ use

of water

• Re-allocation of water

DESERTIFICATION

Range low to medium to high risk areas

But risk of human-induced desertification in Africa

South Africa

• uses a relatively high proportion of its available water,

• studies shown enough water to meet all needs until 2025

problems & challenges related to

• limited financial resources &

• institutional capabilities,

• rather than limitations of resource

• water crises arise if not make correct timely descisions:

• right investments, &

• innovations &

• management decisions.

• could affect jobs & livelihoods & dry taps & spread of diseases.

Needs: • municipal services received attention

• management of water quality

• promote better planning & management of services – use/pollute water resource.

• water resources management at broader development planning at local, provincial, national & regional levels.

• coherent vision for rural redress & transformation, with effective institutional mechanisms for linking water management with agriculture & finance & other rural sectors directly to food security.

• Identifying opportunities where innovation & human capacity building help ensure water management contributes to social & economic development.

• reality check on essential WRM activities

In sub-Saharan Africa

• 300 of 800 million people in a water-scarce environment

• less than 1,000 m3 per capita

• drinking water supply in sub-Saharan Africa barely 60%;

• 37% of world people using unimproved drinking water sources;

• improved water sources in urban areas at 83% 1990 & 2008.

• rural areas only 47% in 2008, but 11% increase since 1990;

• only 31% of population uses improved sanitation facilities,

• Large differences between urban (~44% in 2008)

& Rural (24%).

THE CRITICAL ROLE OF WATER IN ACHIEVING

RURAL FOOD & WATER SECURITY

Improve

• On-farm water management

• Performance of irrigation systems

• Augment supply with non-conventional supply

• Water harvesting

• Integrated watershed management

• National allocation policies

• Virtual water trading

OPTIONS

Within Agricultural Water

Management Domain

• Enhance supply

• Water recycling and re-use

in irrigation

• Reducing water losses

• Improving crop water

productivity

• Re-allocating water from

lower to higher value use in

irrigation

Outside of Domain

• Investing in rainfed

agriculture

• Reducing losses in food

chain

• beyond agricultural

production: virtual water &

role of trade

Potential for Poverty Reduction thru Water Interventions

Some areas of high potential impact

CURRENT STATUS FOOD SECURITY

Food Outlook May 2012

• prospects mixed for current main coarse grains season.

• In South Africa, forecast 7 % increase to 11.7 million tonnes

• larger area planted offsetting a drop in yields due to below-

normal rains in 2012.

• Malawi, Zambia, & Zimbabwe - smaller maize harvests due to

dry weather & less area planted.

• Mozambique & Namibia favourable weather - similar to good

2011

• Angola improve (except coastal areas due to a dry spell).

Estimated Food Security 3rd Qrt JAS 2012 & 4th Qrt OND 2012

http://www.fews.net/pages/region.aspx?gb=r3

sufficient balanced food

for all the people all the time

in spite of the weather

in sub-Saharan Africa • 1990s to 2008 undernourishment increased from 200 million people to

~350–400 million people

• Climate change & climate variability likely severely compromise agricultural production & food

• security in many African countries

• 1960s agricultural production increased by < 2% annually

• population has grown by ~3%

• 97% of croplands depend on rainfed agriculture,

• which produces most Africa’s food

• Africa needs to increase agricultural output rate 3.3% a year

• To achieve food security by 2025.

• Water key component of ability to feed its population

• Irrigated cropland only 20% of its irrigation potential

• <5% of cultivated area is irrigated

• scope for expanding irrigation to increase food security

• Scenarios increasing area under irrigation by 3x only give 5% increase in food production needed by 2025

Adaptive management

• is based on an acceptance

that in complex situations

there can never be sufficient

information to come to an

‘optimum’ decision.

• It therefore puts emphasis on

flexible planning, backed by

strong monitoring &

information management

systems that allow constant

adaptation & upgrading of

plans & activities.

• Such a level of responsiveness is

only possible if information bases

are maintained current, based on

monitoring & evaluation systems

that continually provide decision-

makers with reliable information

on which to base decisions.

This principle is scale independent:

it applies not only to decision-makers

at policy or management levels, but is

also highly relevant to end users, in

particular farmers.

WATER POLICY RELATED TO FOOD PRODUCTION

• Extent to which water demand is ‘negotiable’ is central to coping strategies for water scarcity.

Water to satisfy basic needs such as drinking, sanitation & hygiene is effectively non-negotiable, but it represents only a small percentage of water demand.

• right to food concept is increasingly recognized.

• production of food requires huge quantities of water, determined by fundamental biophysical processes associated with food production.

Therefore non-negotiable volume of water needed to ensure safe & sufficient food for everyone

But - sizeable changes are possible in way water is used to produce food.

to address water scarcity in agriculture includes

• promotion of water user associations,

• licensing reforms,

• encouragement of efficient use of water,

• control of invasive alien vegetation (e.g. eucalyptus growing along river banks) and

• water pricing.

South African–policy strategy