food security in pakistan. what is food security? sufficient, food security exists when all...
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FOOD SECURITYIN
PAKISTAN
What is Food Security?
sufficient,
Food security existswhen all people,
at all times,
have physical and economic access to
safe and nutritious foodto meet their dietary needs
and food preferencesfor an active and healthy life.
The Food Security Pillars
Availa
bility
Acce
ss
Utiliza
tion
Stability
Food Security
Availability IndicatorsFOOD
AVAILABILITYNET PRODUCTION
AGRICULTURE-BASEDFOOD
ANIMAL-BASEDFOOD
4 FOOD ITEMS
4 FOOD ITEMS
Kcal per capitaper day
FOOD CONSUMPTION
All FOOD ITEMS
All FOOD ITEMSOwn production
Import + Aid
Stocks
19481952
19561960
19641968
19721976
19791981
19831985
19871989
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
20110
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Wheat in the past 64 years
AREA (m ha) PRODUCTION (000 TONNES) YIELD (Kg / ha)
Harvest Years 1948-2012
Prod
uctio
n an
d Ar
ea
Yiel
d
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0 50 100 150 200
Population in million of Pakistan
1948
1952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
102
117
87
100
88 89
9390
87
76
116
123
105
110
120
108
124
131135
129
137
117
122
141
119122
135
130 129
136 136
125
137
154
128
140
131
151
133
125
129
145
140
137
147
129
146
139141
138
Wheat Production per capita
Y e a r
KG
Militancy & crimes
Access Indicators
ACCESS TO FOOD
INCOME PER CAPITA
ADULT LITERACY RATE
LANDLESS LABOUR
ROADS PER AREA
MARGINAL CULTIVATORS
UNDER 2.5 ACRE
International vs local prices of wheat
Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 July-11 Jan-120.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
International Wheat prices
USA: Gulf - Wheat (No. 2 Hard Red Winter) DELHI Pakistan
Jan-2006
Mar-2006
May-2006
July-2006
Sep-2006
Nov-2006
Jan-2007
Mar-2007
May-2007
July-2007
Sep-2007
Nov-2007
Jan-2008
Mar-2008
May-2008
July-2008
Sep-2008
Nov-2008
Jan-2009
Mar-2009
May-2009
July-2009
Sep-2009
Nov-2009
Jan-2010
Mar-2010
May-2010
July-2010
Sep-2010
Nov-2010
Jan-2011
Mar-2011
May-2011
Jul-2011
Sep-2011
Nov-2011
Jan-201210
15
20
25
30
35
40
Pakistan: Retail Prices (nominal) in major markets: Wheat Flour A. Qlt. 06/2006-02/2012
ISLAMABAD
RAWALPINDI
GUJRANWALA
SIALKOT
LAHORE
FAISALABAD
SARGODHA
MULTAN
BAHAWALPUR
KARACHI
Hyderabad
SUKKUR
LARKANA
PESHAWAR
BANNU
QUETTA
KHUZDAR
Terms of trade and key commodity prices
Jan 07
March 07
May 07
July
07
Sep 07
Nov 07
Jan 08
Mar 08
May 08
July
08
Sep 08
Nov 08
Jan 09
Mar 09
May 09
July
09
Sep 09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
July-
10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
July-
11
Sep-11
nov-11
Jan-12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Pakistan: Terms of Trade and Petroleum prices
Wheat flour per Kg Terms of Trade PETROL DIESEL
Ja
n 0
4
Ma
r 0
4
Ma
y 0
4
Ju
ly 0
4
Se
p 0
4
No
v 0
4
Ja
n 0
5
Ma
r 0
5
Ma
y 0
5
Ju
ly 0
5
Se
p 0
5
No
v 0
5
Ja
n 0
6
Ma
rch
06
Ma
y 0
6
Ju
ly 0
6
Se
p 0
6
No
v 0
6
Ja
n 0
7
Ma
rch
07
Ma
y 0
7
Ju
ly 0
7
Se
p 0
7
No
v 0
7
Ja
n 0
8
Ma
r 0
8
Ma
y 0
8
Ju
ly 0
8
Se
p 0
8
No
v 0
8
Ja
n 0
9
Ma
r 0
9
Ma
y 0
9
Ju
ly 0
9
Se
p 0
9
No
v-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
r-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Ju
ly-1
0
Se
p-1
0
No
v-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
r-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Ju
ly-1
1
Se
p-1
1
no
v-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Term of Trade
Multan Karachi Peshawar Pakistan
Terms of trade: regional trends
International and National Wheat Prices
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
May
-02
Jul-0
2Se
p-02
Nov-0
2Ja
n-03
Mar
-03
May
-03
Jul-0
3Se
p-03
Nov-0
3Ja
n-04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4Se
p-04
Nov-0
4Ja
n-05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5Se
p-05
Nov-0
5Ja
n-06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6Se
p-06
Nov-0
6Ja
n-07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-0
7Se
p-07
Nov-0
7Ja
n-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-0
8Se
p-08
Nov-0
8Ja
n-09
Mar
-09
May
-09
July-
09Se
p-09
Nov-0
9
Pakistan Delhi
World price(F.O.B,Gulf) Support price
Soaring food prices have adversely affected access to food
Jan 11
Feb 11
Mar 11Apr 1
1
May 11
Jun 11Jul 1
1
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12Jul-1
2
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
International VS national prices of wheat
AUSTRAILIA USA AfghanistanPakistan India
2.3
3.6
0.6 0.3
10.8
3.3
3.7
9.1
1.3
0.6
0.6
64
2nd Round1st round
2.7
4.0
0.4
0.6
7.1
3.2
5.1
4.4
1.9
0.5
0.4
69.6
4.05.8
0.6 0.9
10.4
4.7
7.5
6.5 2.8
0.7 0.6
55.6
0
Household expenditure on food & non-food items (%age)
Energey for cooking
Electricity
Housing (rent, repairs)
Water
Health
Education
Transportation (private purose)
Clothing and shoes
Ceremonies, entertqainment
Reimbursment debts
Other non-food expenses
Food Expenditure
Poor populations need to spend a large share of their income on food
• Purchasing power went down (2007-09)– Wheat prices in real terms increased by 54.6
percent – Wage rate in real terms increased by only 3.1
percent (shock modeling)
Nominal term (2007-2011)– Wheat price increased by 114 percent– Wage rate increased by only 41 percent
Type of consumption
Caloric Intake (Kcal/Day/Person)Quantity Consumed per
Year (Kg)
Baseline (2006) After (2009) Change (%)
Baseline (2006) After (2009)
Wheat National 811 735 -9.3 124 112
Urban 709 631 -11.0 108 96
Rural 880 806 -8.4 135 123
Rice National 124 100 -19.4 - -
Urban 114 86 -24.6 - -
Rural 131 109 -16.8 - -
Total food National 2372 2268 -4.4 - -
Urban 2336 2226 -4.7 - -
Rural 2397 2296 -4.2 - -
Note: The percentage change in caloric intake is applied to the quantity consumed
Wage labourers and petty traders are most food insecure
Wag
e lab
ourers
Petty t
rader
Small
farm
ers
Livest
ock
Medium fa
rmer
Skille
d worke
rs
Employe
e/small
business
%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
28%21% 16%
7%
45%48%
39%
41%
15% 15%7%
Extremely food insecure Borderline food insecure
Market vulnerability
Market price plays a vital role in the food security of the population
35-40% urban ………………………100% depend on market for food67% of rural…………………………100% depend on market for food
33% of rural engaged in agriculture but not all produce surplus cereals, only 10% are somehow produce more than requirement.
Hence, the price instability affect 90% of the households in the country
Absorption/utilization Indicators
FOOD ABSORPTION
INFANT MORTALITYRATE
IMMUNIZATIONCOVERAGE
FEMALE LITERACY RATE
HEALTH SERVICES& FACILITIES
SAFE DRINKINGWATER
25
Food Diversity- type of food consumed in one week time
Food Consumption Groups
Cereal_days_eaten
Pulses_days_eaten
Vegetable_days_eaten
Fruits_days_eaten
Protein_days_eaten
Sugar_sweet_days_eaten
Oil_ghee_days_eaten
Poor 6.2 0.9 4.0 0.3 0.1 4.4 4.5Borderline 7.0 3.0 4.0 0.5 0.5 6.5 6.6Reasonable 7.0 4.2 4.7 1.5 3.2 6.5 6.6Total 6.9 3.3 4.2 0.8 1.4 6.4 6.5
Food Consumption
2 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 84
Poor Borderline Acceptable
.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Cereal days eaten Pulses days eaten Vegetable days eaten Fruits days eaten Meat days eaten Milk days eaten Sugar days eaten Oil days eaten
Oil
Sugar
Milk MeatFruits
vegetable
pulses
Cereals (Wheat, Rice, Maize)
Food Diversity
Food insecure populationFSA 2009 Table 5.2
Food Insecure Population in Pakistan
Province % Food insecur
e
KPK 56.2
Punjab 38.5
Sindh 44.3
Balochistan 61.2
FATA 67.7
Pak Administered Kashmir 46.9
Gilgit Baltistan 52.4
Islamabad 23.6
% Food insecure population
56.2
38.544.3
61.267.7
46.952.4
23.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
KPK Punjab Sindh Balochistan FATA PakAdministered
Kashmir
GilgitBaltistan
Islamabad
Pakistan = 48.6 percent
2010------- 51.6 Percent
32 31 29
13 13
21
26
34
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Extremely foodinsecure
Food Insecure Borderline Secure
Food insecurity with geographical focus
Y-09 Y-03
Chart-3.5 Coping Strategies FSA 2009
40
27
16
1 2 3 3 2
7
40
30
17
2 2 2 2 15
40
29
16
2 2 2 2 15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Rely
on le
sspr
efer
red
and
less
expe
nsive
Limit p
ortio
nsiz
e at
mea
ls
Rest
rict
cons
umpt
ionby
adu
lts in
orde
r for
Cons
ume
seed
sto
cks
held
for t
hene
xt s
easo
nSe
ll dom
estic
asse
ts(ra
dio,
furn
iture
,Se
ll dom
estic
asse
ts (f
arm
imple
men
ts,
sewi
ngM
ove
child
ren
from
priva
te to
publi
c sc
hool
Rem
ove
child
ren
from
scho
ol
Seek
alter
nativ
ejob
s
Urban Rural Total
How do people cope with food insecurity ?
Militancy & crimes
Year 2003
2003-2006 slow increase
2007Price increase of
food itemsContinue till now
2007Decline in terms of trade
Continue till now
2008Decline in incomePower shut downContinue till now2009
Conflict/warContinue till now