food and feed production under the changing climate and the resulting research agenda in nars
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Food and Feed production under the changing climate and the resulting research agenda in NARS. Girma Mamo (PhD), Senior Agro-meteorologist. Biometrics, GIS and Agrometeorology Research Process, EIAR 28 January 2014. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Food and Feed production under the changing climate and the resulting research agenda in NARS
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Girma Mamo (PhD),
Senior Agro-meteorologist
Biometrics, GIS and Agrometeorology Research Process, EIAR
28 January 2014“Everybody talks about weather,
but nobody does anything about it
The time honoured quip of Charles Dudley Walker
Objectives of the Objectives of the presentationpresentation
Presentation outlinePresentation outline Introduction
Why does the climate change Understanding the national development plan of Ethiopia Agriculture is the largest source of GHGs emission in Ethiopia
What agricultural research can help in this complex challenge?
Extent of mainstreaming CCA & mitigation issues into NARS
Complex challenges, but amenable to research
Understanding and modeling impacts of climate risks
Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation & climate smartness
Ongoing research topics (thematic areas) of interest
Potential topics for research interventions
Institutional challenges
Emerging opportunities, not only just a challenge
Why does Why does the the climate climate change? change?
Understanding the Understanding the national development national development plan plan of Ethiopiaof Ethiopia
A number of major policies and programmers that target current vulnerability, and are already implementing (adaptation) options:
But are not fully resilient to future climate change and need to evolve to take longer-term climate change into account
On the whole, the policies appear progressive and offer much potential
◦ Out of 150 million tons of CO2e GHGs emission >85% is from agriculture and forestry) The current cattle population is
more than 50 million and other livestock nearly 100 million. 65 Mt CO2e.
For soil based emission, potentially highest
(~10 Mt CO2e) as well as by
emitting N2O from crop residues reintroduced into the ground
(~3 Mt CO2e per hectare). Swathes of deforestation: 55 Mt
CO2e i
Provocative question
But why Ethiopian economic development trajectory clings to agriculture, which is highly sensitive to climate risks?
Agriculture is the largest source of Agriculture is the largest source of GHGs emission GHGs emission FEDERAL
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA
3
More than 85% of today’s GHG emissions in Ethiopia come from forestry and agriculture
50%
3%
BuildingsIndustry
3%Power
3%
Forestry37%
Agriculture
3%Transport
Share of GHG emissions, 2010
Total GHG emissions of ~150 Mt CO2e in 2010
What agricultural research can What agricultural research can help in this complex challenge?help in this complex challenge?
NARS is tracking the higher level development pathways set by the government, to address these complex challenges and capture emerging opportunities
Generation of scientific evidence on triple win strategies [strategies that increase resilience (adaptation), reduce emission or enhance sequestration and at the same time do not compromise productivity enhancement plans of the country]
Cont’dCont’d
Translating strategic GTP objectives into green, climate resilient,
ultimately outlining concert research questions and objectives
NARS is tracking the higher level development pathways set by the
government, to address these complex challenges and capture emerging
opportunities Generation of scientific evidence on triple win strategies [strategies
that increase resilience (adaptation), reduce emission or enhance sequestration and at the same time do not compromise productivity enhancement plans of the country]
Extent of mainstreaming climate change Extent of mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigation issues into NARS adaptation and mitigation issues into NARS programs programs National Agricultural Research System (NARS)
evolved through several stages since its 1st initiation during late 1940s.
The establishment of the then Institute of Agricultural Research (IAR) in 1966 saw the first nationally coordinated research system
Federal system i.e NARS EIAR+ RARIs + HLIs EIAR countrywide coordination of agricultural research conduct research on constraints of nationwide importance RARIs focus on their own region specific
constraints
NARS -- 69 research centers across various agro-ecological zones
Variation in experience, human and facility.
Staff numeracy and literacy working for Staff numeracy and literacy working for Biometrics, GIS and Agro-meteorology of NARS, Biometrics, GIS and Agro-meteorology of NARS, relative to ECA countriesrelative to ECA countriesNARS members
Agromet Statistics GIS and remote sensing
PhD MSc BSc PhD MSc BSc PhD MSc BSc Total
EIAR 1+1*
5 3 1 2 3 - 2 - 18
ARARI
SARI
OARI 2 2
TARI 1* 1 2
Total 2 8 3 1 1 3 2 1 22
Complex challenges, but amenable to research in the Complex challenges, but amenable to research in the face of ensuring food and feed production under the face of ensuring food and feed production under the changing climatechanging climate
Deepening poverty
Inability to invest for
productivity/profitability
Poor health, malnutrition
Low ecological/
System Productivity
Global
warming
Deforestation, Farming on
steep slopes (soil erosion)
Scarcity of land
Poverty
RisingPopnGrowt
h
Increased GHGs
Emission
(CO2
at large)
Climate Change
Social
Non-climatic
(land use change)
Climatic
Economic
Understanding and modeling impacts Understanding and modeling impacts of climate risks on Ethiopian of climate risks on Ethiopian agriculture agriculture
Adaptation Increasing the society’s adaptive capacity, against the highly likely impacts of the climate on economy wide sectors
Mitigation Directing efforts towards reducing the emission of GHGs, from the agriculture oriented development perspectives, it means reducing impacts of bad practices on climate change through alternatives
Increasing carbon sequestration in the soil (the second largest pool of carbon, next to ocean)
Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation Mitigation and Climate Smartness and Climate Smartness
Climate smart agriculture
The process by which communities reduce the adverse impacts of shocks and stresses on their livelihoods and well-being, and also take a stock of advantages from the new opportunities provided by the changing enviroment (successful, appropriate and sustanable)
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Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation and climate smartness …Contn’dMitigation and climate smartness …Contn’d
Impact pathways we follow in climate research Impact pathways we follow in climate research across programs across programs in NARS in NARS Assessing agricultural vulnerability/resilience to climate change in regional contexts (assessments, multi-scale models, place-based analysis with stakeholders)
(society, environment, economy) Downscaling General Circulation Model (GCMs) outputs to
target localities Impact analyses of climate on
Crops (grain +feed)
Searching for alternate adaptation strategies and building on home grown (indigenous) strategies
Technology verification and release Communication Technology pre-scaling up
Program
Research topics (thematic areas) of interest w/r to climate change
Food and feed crops
•Environmental characterization Soil, climate and water (adaptation is location specific)•Crop and cultivar choice for climate change adaptation Breeding for carbon and nitrogen efficient crop varieties
Breeding for drought and heat tolerance •Managing agricultural water more efficientlyIncreasing water productivity through integrated approach (soil-crop-atmosphere continuum) modeling and field research
Increasing effective water use
Water harvesting for supplemental irrigation
Irrigation water management (specialization)
Economics/cost of adaptation (cost above one allocated for normal development plans)
Program
Research topics (thematic areas) of interest w/r to climate change
Food and feed crops
Managing land sustainably and increasing crop production
Conservation agriculture (organic matter building and at the same time ensuring soil carbon sequestration (climate change mitigation) employing
Carbon and nitrogen efficient crop varieties Minimum disturbance of soil Crop rotation and intercropping Integrated use of fertilizers (Organic maturing Ensuring feed availability to ensure residue availability
Potential topics for research interventions Potential topics for research interventions
Aggregating emissions throughout the livestock commodity chain - from feed production
ranging from chemical fertilizer production, deforestation for
pasture and feed crops, and pasture degradation),
through animal production
including enteric fermentation and N2O emissions from
manure) to the CO2 emitted during processing and
transportation of animal products
Extension and participatory research for engaging farmers and other stakeholders in building capacity for climate change and agriculture; Examples of linking farmers to climate information to improve agroecosystem management/food systems
improved animal nutrition and manure management to cut methane and nitrogen emissions
The future of the livestock-environment interface could be shaped by how we resolve the balance of two demands
i.e animal food products+ environmental services
Livestock production also impacts heavily water supply, mainly for the irrigation of feed crops.
Potential topics for research interventions.... Potential topics for research interventions....
Livestock accounts for nine percent of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, most of it due to expansion of pastures and arable land for feed crops.
Livestock generates even bigger shares of emissions of other gases with greater potential to warm the atmosphere: as much as 37 percent of anthropogenic methane,
mostly from enteric fermentation by ruminants, and 65
percent of anthropogenic N2O, mostly from manure.
Potential topics for research interventions.... Potential topics for research interventions....
Institutional challenges Institutional challenges
Institution Challenge
Agricultural Research
Mainstreaming climate risk issues into the government funded commodity based research projects looks formidable: Revisiting the research strategy is required
Revising the existing research strategy in relation to emerging issues
Genotype x environment x management (GxExM) interactions research through development of climate-crop modelling
Ministry of Agriculture
Lack of fine resolution agroecological zones map (1:1000000 scale)
Poor data quality on area/production and yield/marketing
Climate information extension service not mainstreamed/ integrated into existing development extension system
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Policy makers
Limited climate sensitivity of most robust agricultural development programs
No climate policy (eg; National Drought Policy,)
Poor institutional setting for coordination and networking of key climate-agriculture role players
Farmers Change in perception: If it rains I will plant, if doesn’t rain I will not plant, so why do I worry
about climate?.
Every crises related to drought and famine owes only to bad luck and God’s wrath
Slow rate of adoption of improved technologies (built risk averse behavior, worry about downside production risk)
Enhancing use of indigenous practices home grown adaptation options
22
Institutional challenges
Emerging opportunities, just not onlyEmerging opportunities, just not only a challenge a challenge
We believe time is for inter-institutional collaboration The climate science is advancing at a significant rate Ethiopian government is committed to build an adaptive
capacity of the society to the pressure of climate risks Climate resilient Green Economy initiative (CRGE).
Compelling reasons to expand government funded research projects to include adaptation-mitigation
◦ Institutions; like EIAR are building the capacity in climate research.
Climate money is hovering in the air any one with good idea has an opportunity to access.
Time is right and ripe to confront climate change and that, international donors are demonstrating great interest.
Who are beside us in the move? Who are beside us in the move? CGIAR Centers collaborating with NARS CGIAR Centers collaborating with NARS
ICARDA ILRI IFPRI ICRISAT CIMMYT IITA IRRI CIP CIAT IWMI NRVDC IPGRI ARC ICRAF
Pleasure to have your attention!
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