folkestone real estate outlook
TRANSCRIPT
1
FOLKESTONE
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
JULY 2015
2
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
3
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-1.0%
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3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Ma
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r-1
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ECONOMIC CONDITIONS – NATIONAL GROWTH
Private New Capital Expenditure:
2000 – 2015
• Economic growth remains below trend – the transition from mining has been slow
• Businesses appear reluctant to invest until the economy improves
• The RBA has pushed the timing out for a recovery in non-mining investment until later in 2016
Source: ABS, Bloomberg, RBA
Australian GDP Growth:
1990 – 2017
Average
= 3.1%
Average
= 2.8%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Ma
r-0
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r-0
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r-1
3
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r-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Mining Manufacturing Other Industries
$b
n
4
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS – STATE GROWTH
State Final Demand:
2000 – 2015
• Population growth has slowed in the past year but still high for a developed nation
• VIC recorded the strongest growth (1.8%) and was just below NSW in terms of absolute growth
• WA and QLD population growth has slowed due to mining downturn
• Economic growth across the States reflecting the economic transition from mining
Source: ABS
Population Growth:
Year to Dec 2014
-6.0%
-3.0%
0.0%
3.0%
6.0%
9.0%
12.0%
15.0%
Ma
r-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Ma
r-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
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r-0
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6
Ma
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7
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
NSW VIC QLD WA
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
VIC
WA
NS
W
QL
D
AC
T
SA
TA
S
No. of People % Increase
WA
QLD
NSW
VIC
5
• Yields have fallen to historic lows across the yield curve
• Markets now factoring in another rate cut by late 2015/early 2016 following RBA cuts in February and May
• For investors, key to look at long-end of curve (10 year yields) – will this increase as economic recovers and/or
follow global yields higher
Yields:
2005 – 2015
FINANCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS - YIELDS
Cash Rate Expectations:
12 Months to December 2016
Source: IRESS, The Yield Report
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Jun
05
Jun
06
Jun
07
Jun
08
Jun
09
Jun
10
Jun
11
Jun
12
Jun
13
Jun
14
Jun
15
90 Day Bills 3 Yr Bonds 10 Yr Bonds
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oct-
15
Nov-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jan
-16
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ap
r-16
Ma
y-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Oct-
16
Nov-1
6
Dec-1
6
*As at 10 July 2015
6
PROPERTY MARKET
OUTLOOK
7
Non-Residential Property Total Returns:
2003 – 2015
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – NON-RESIDENTIAL
• March 2015 - total return was 10.7% underpinned by strong income return of 6.9%
• Direct property has provided stable returns for past 5 years in a period of financial market volatility
• Capital values in upswing phase driven by further cap rate compression rather than real estate fundamentals
• Industrial has been the best performing sector over 1 and 3 years – likely to continue in FY16
Source: MSCI, IPD
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Dec-0
3
Dec-0
4
Dec-0
5
Dec-0
6
Dec-0
7
Dec-0
8
Dec-0
9
Dec-1
0
Dec-1
1
Dec-1
2
Dec-1
3
Dec-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Capital Return Income Return Total Return
Rolli
ng A
nnual R
etu
rns
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Au
str
alia
nIn
dustr
ial
Au
str
alia
nO
ther
Au
str
alia
nR
eta
il
All
Pro
pert
y
Au
str
alia
nO
ffic
e
1 Year 3 Years
Total Returns by Sector:
1 and 3 Years to March 2015
8
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Ma
r-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
CBD Office Major Regional Retail
Neighbourhood Retail Industrial Warehouse
10 Year Bonds
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – CAP RATES
Cap Rates vs. Historical Peak and Average:
June 2015
• Disconnect between capital markets and space markets highlighted in recent sector dynamics:
• cap rates have firmed while vacancy rates remain elevated and income growth is subdued
• prices being driven by weight of money not underlying real estate fundamentals
• Cap rates have fallen most for industrial – lowest spread from historical average
• Expect further cap rate compression in FY16 driven by weight of money
Cap Rates vs. 10 Year Bond Yields:
2005 – 2015
Still not back to
pre-GFC levels
Source: MSCI, IPD
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Se
condary
Offic
e
Bu
lky
Goods
Neig
hbourh
ood
Reta
il Prim
eO
ffic
e
Su
b-R
egio
nal
Reta
il
Regio
nal
Reta
il
Syd
Se
condary
…
Syd P
rim
eIn
dustr
ial
Spread From Historic Avg. Spread From Previous Peak
9
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – TRANSACTIONS
Non-residential Transaction Volume By
Key Sector: 2008 – 2015
• In 6 months to June 2015, just under $10bn was transacted in the office, retail and industrial sectors
• Activity running below levels in 1st half of 2014 due to stock availability rather than capital drying up
• Foreign investors accounted for 45% of transaction value in the past six months
• Office remains the key target for foreign investors (Sydney and Melbourne), although growing interest in prime industrial and hotels
Source: DTZ
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
Office Retail Industrial
$bn
Domestic vs. Foreign Investment Activity:
2012 - 2015
*
*Six months to June 2015
10
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – GLOBAL CAPITAL
• Low interest rate environment, strong relative pricing and quantitative easing in some markets have led to strong growth in
global capital targeting real estate
• Global investment activity is set to close in on 2007 peak levels by end of 2015
• Global capital focusing on gateway cities - Melbourne and Sydney rank high on the shopping list
• Japan followed by Australia and China are the main targets by institutional investors in Asia Pacific region
Investment in Major Global Cities:
Q2 2014 – Q1 2015
Source: DTZ
Investor Target Markets by Region:
2015
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
C. L
on
don
Ma
nh
att
an
Sa
n F
ran
cis
co
To
kyo
Los A
nge
les
Pa
ris
Me
lbou
rne
Wa
sh
ing
ton
DC
Bo
sto
n
Chic
ago
Sydn
ey
Hon
g K
on
g
Dalla
s
Sin
ga
pore
Mia
mi
North America
Europe
Asia Pacific
US
Mexico
Canada
Brazil
UK
Germany
France
Spain/ Italy
Benelux
Nordics
CEE Other
Japan
Australia
China
Singapore
S. Korea
Hong Kong
Other
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Americas EMEA Asia Pacific
11
• Vacancy rates reflect divergent economic growth prospects of the major markets
• Sydney the only CBD market to record a single digit vacancy – 7.8%
• Effective rental growth has been subdued in Sydney and Melbourne and negative in other CBDs due to high
vacancy and elevated incentives
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – OFFICE
CBD Office Vacancy Rates:
Dec 2014 – Jun 2015
Source: JLL
Prime Effective Rental Growth:
Year to March 2015
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Canberra
Perth
Dec-14 Jun-15
-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0%
Perth CBD
Adelaide CBD
Brisbane CBD
Canberra
Sydney CBD
Melbourne CBD
12
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RETAIL
Retail Sales vs. Consumer Confidence:
2002 – 2015
• Retail sales growth has improved but driven by household goods (impact of strong housing market)
• Consumer confidence remains weak – therefore cautious on spending
• However, lower confidence partly offset by strong population growth, rising house prices and equity values (the “wealth effect”)
Source: ABS
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
75
85
95
105
115
125
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
Jan
-14
Jan
-15
% C
ha
ng
e p
cp
Ind
ex
Consumer Confidence (LHS) Retail Sales (RHS)
Retail Turnover by Type:
Year to May 2015
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
Houshold Goods
Cafes, Restaurants &Takeaway
Total
Food Retailing
Clothing, Footwear &Accessory
Other Retailing
Department Stores
13
Aldi, Coles & Woolworths – Annual Sales Growth:
2011-2014
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RETAIL
• Competition in supermarket sector is increasing
• ALDI now a genuine third supermarket operator
• The competition between Coles and Woolworths is not new – who is number 1 changes over time
Source: Company Reports and JP Morgan
Aldi, Coles & Woolworths – Sales per Sq.m:
2010-2014
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
ALDI Coles Woolworths
Lik
e f
or
Lik
e (
Sale
s G
row
th)
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ALDI Coles Woolworths
$ '000/s
q.m
.
14
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Warehouse Distribution Industrial Estate Other
1 Year Return 3 Years Return
Investment Performance Across Industrial Sub-Sectors:
1 and 3 Years to March 2015
• Warehouse and distribution centres have performed strongly in recent years – investors chasing prime assets
• Industrial performance being driven by:
• investors chasing higher yields relative to office and retail
• on-going transformation of industrial landscape – more distribution centres and changing land-use of inner ring industrial areas
• industrial distribution centres – demand high due to e-commerce, retail trade and change in transport networks
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – INDUSTRIAL
Source: IPD/MSCI
Annualis
ed
Retu
rn
15
Dwelling Values – Major Capital Cities:
1 Year and 10 Years to June 2015
• Housing boom has not been uniform across Australia
• Sydney has been standout performer – up 16.2% in the past year however over 10 years it is 5.4% p.a. one of the
weakest
• Sydney and Melbourne, considered global cities - rank 10 & 11 on global basis based on growth in year to March
2015 (latest available nos.)
Source: Core Logic/RP Rismark, Knight Frank Residential Research, Douglas Elliman/Millare Samuel, Ken Corporation
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL
-10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%
Sydney
Melbourne
Adelaide
Brisbane
Canberra
Hobart
Perth
Darwin
12 Months to June 2015
Average 10 Years to June 2015 (p.a.)
Prime Global Cities Index:
1 Year to March 2015
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
San Francisco
Bengaluru
Miami
Vancouver
Jakerta
Tel Aviv
Tokyo
Dublin
Los Angeles
Sydney
Melbourne
Seoul
Cape Town
Hong Knog
Madrid
Bangkok
London
Mumbai
Delhi
Shanghai
16
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL
Housing Finance by Type of Borrower:
1995 – 2015
• Investor activity is driving the residential market
• However, despite all the hype about apartments off-plan sales, investors are preferring established housing
• APRA macro-prudential controls on bank lending will impact the investor market
• Strong link between interest rates and housing sector – investors need to be cognisant of interest rate increases down the track
Source: ABS
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Ma
y 9
5
Ma
y 9
7
Ma
y 9
9
Ma
y 0
1
Ma
y 0
3
Ma
y 0
5
Ma
y 0
7
Ma
y 0
9
Ma
y 1
1
Ma
y 1
3
Ma
y 1
5
$b
n (
s.a
.)
Owner Occupier - Construction
Owner Occupier - Purchase of New Dwellings
Owner Occupier - Purchase of Existing Dwellings
Investment - Construction
Investment - Purchase of Dwellings
Building Approvals and Monetary Policy:
1991 - 2015
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jun
-91
Jun
-93
Jun
-95
Jun
-97
Jun
-99
Jun
-01
Jun
-03
Jun
-05
Jun
-07
Jun
-09
Jun
-11
Jun
-13
Jun
-15
No o
f A
ppro
vals
(R
olli
ng A
nnual)
%
Cash Rate (LHS) Building Approvals (RHS)
Tightening Cycles
17
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL
Multi-Unit Dwelling as % of Total
Dwelling Completions: 1986 - 2015
• Apartments now key part of the market – 41% of completions in year to March 2015 – due to lifestyle/demographic changes, affordability (apartments
28% cheaper than houses in Sydney) and planning changes
• Inner Melbourne, Inner Brisbane & South Sydney apartment markets heading for an oversupply – better value in middle/outer ring suburbs, mixed-use
developments and around transport nodes
• Land sales falling across Australia since peaking in 2013 – driven by Sydney where lot sales down 29.7% in March quarter and almost 50% below
record set in December quarter 2013
• Media lot price in Sydney now $365,000 - 64% higher than Melbourne ($222,000) and Brisbane ($228,000)
Source: ABS, HIA, CoreLogic RPData
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Ma
r-1
987
Ma
r-1
989
Ma
r-1
991
Ma
r-1
993
Ma
r-1
995
Ma
r-1
997
Ma
r-1
999
Ma
r-2
001
Ma
r-2
003
Ma
r-2
005
Ma
r-2
007
Ma
r-2
009
Ma
r-2
011
Ma
r-2
013
Ma
r-2
015
(Rolli
ng A
nnual)
Residential Land Sales and Medium Lot
Values – Capital Cities: 2010 - 2015
170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
220,000
230,000
240,000
250,000
260,000
270,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Ma
r Q
tr 1
0
Se
p Q
tr 1
0
Ma
r Q
tr 1
1
Se
p Q
tr 1
1
Ma
r Q
tr 1
2
Se
p Q
tr 1
2
Ma
r Q
tr 1
3
Se
p Q
tr 1
3
Ma
r Q
tr 1
4
Se
p Q
tr 1
4
Ma
r Q
tr 1
5
Number of Sales (LHS) Price Per Lot (RHS)
$
18
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Ma
y-8
5
Ma
y-8
8
Ma
y-9
1
Ma
y-9
4
Ma
y-9
7
Ma
y-0
0
Ma
y-0
3
Ma
y-0
6
Ma
y-0
9
Ma
y-1
2
Ma
y-1
5
NSW Houses NSW Apartments NSW Total
No.
of
Appro
vals
(per
month
)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Ma
y-8
8
Ma
y-9
1
Ma
y-9
4
Ma
y-9
7
Ma
y-0
0
Ma
y-0
3
Ma
y-0
6
Ma
y-0
9
Ma
y-1
2
Ma
y-1
5
VIC Houses VIC Apartments VIC Total
No.
of
Appro
vals
(per
month
)
House and Apartment Approvals – NSW and Victoria:
1988 – 2015
• NSW approvals declined significantly between 2003 and 2008 – leading to current undersupply and price pressures
• VIC approvals continue to run ahead of long-term average and also ahead of NSW – better planning system
• Declining affordability, concerns of oversupply in some sub-markets, supply bottlenecks (Sydney planning) will see supply taper off in 2016
Source: ABS
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – RESIDENTIAL
19
Performance of the Top Five A-REITs:
Year to June 2015
• More capital being allocated in both the listed and unlisted real estate markets to alternative assets such as early learning, medical/health and seniors living
• 4 of the top 5 performing A-REITs in the year to June 2015 were social infrastructure related
• Alternate sectors typically higher yields than office, retail and industrial, although yield gap closing due to growing investor interest in alternate assets
• Benefits of investing in social infrastructure typically include longer leases (often 10 years or more), net or triple net leases (whereby the operator/ tenant
pays outgoings and is responsible for repairs and maintenance), often government backed cash flows & lower volatility compared to other assets
Source: ABS
AUSTRALIAN MARKET CONDITIONS – SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Early Learning Centre Sale Yields:
2010 - 2015
0.0% 20.0% 40.0%
National StorageREIT
GrowthPointProperties
Arena REIT
FolkestoneEducation Trust
Hotel PropertyInvestments 3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
Jan
-10
Oct-
10
Au
g-1
1
Jun
-12
Ap
r-13
Fe
b-1
4
Dec-1
4
Yie
ld
Metro Yields Regional Yields
Linear (Metro Yields) Linear (Regional Yields)
20
A-REIT SECTOR
OUTLOOK
21
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Indu
str
ial
A-R
EIT
s
Reta
ilA
-RE
ITs
To
tal
A-R
EIT
Off
ice
A-R
EIT
s
Div
ers
ifie
d
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
A-REIT – Total Returns:
to 30 June 2015
• A-REITs outperformed equity and bonds in year to June 2015 – 2nd time in 3 years
• Industrial A-REITs were the best performing A-REIT sector over 1 and 3 years – 27.5% and 24.0% p.a.
• Expect performance to moderate in FY16 to longer-term averages – circa 10%
• Short-term volatility (general equity flows in & out of sector/ market sentiment) will continue to be a feature of A-REITs in FY16
• A-REIT’s in better shape than pre GFC – lower gearing, more sustainable pay-out ratios, focused strategies
A-REIT SECTOR PERFORMANCE
Source: UBS
(% p
.a.)
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015
A-REITs Equities Bonds
Year ending June
A-REITs vs. Equities vs. Bonds:
2012 - 2015
22
A-REIT Sector EPU and DPU Yields vs.
10 Year Australian Bond Yields: 1990 – 2015
• Despite strong price performance of A-REITs, spread between A-REIT yields and 10 year bonds still wide - DPU spread circa 225 bps –
well above long-term average of 60 bps
• A-REIT yield very attractive relative to other major global REIT markets on both absolute yield and relative spread to 10 year bonds • a key reason for strong inflows into A-REITs from global investors
• High correlation with movement in bond yields – A-REITs could come under short-term pricing pressure if bond yields move up
Source: JPMorgan, Bloomberg
A-REIT SPREADS
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Jun-0
0
Jun-0
1
Jun-0
2
Jun-0
3
Jun-0
4
Jun-0
5
Jun-0
6
Jun-0
7
Jun-0
8
Jun-0
9
Jun-1
0
Jun-1
1
Jun-1
2
Jun-1
3
Jun-1
4
Jun-1
5
10 Yr AU Bond Yield A-REIT EPU Yield A-REIT DPU Yield
23
SUMMARY
Australia’s economic growth to remain below trend
Wall of money chasing real estate assets, especially non-residential assets will continue
Biggest challenge for investors will be finding attractive investment opportunities in a competitive market place
Industrial and real estate related social infrastructure to outperform
Seniors living sector is expected to offer significant investment opportunities
Wide divergence in performance of Australia’s housing sub-markets to continue
Momentum in the Sydney and Melbourne residential markets is set to slow
Strong return from A-REITs in FY15 unlikely to be repeated – move back to long-term average
Investors need to identify and quantify the risk in their real estate portfolios and focus on the underlying real estate fundamentals
“This time it’s different” does not abolish the real estate cycle
24
FOLKESTONE’S FOCUS IN FY16
Specific investment opportunities rather than focusing on top-down sector calls
focus on mispriced assets;
where we can add value;
Look to manufacture ‘core’ product rather than relying on competition lender process
Focus on early learning, particularly developing centres within 15km radius of CBDs and outer growth corridors and look for
opportunities in the seniors living sector
Maintain conservative leverage levels and structures in our income and development funds
Continue to stress test assets under various interest rate scenarios
25
REAL ESTATE IQ
Register at:
www.folkestone.com.au/real-estate-iq/
26
DISCLAIMER:
This paper has been published for information purposes only. The information contained in this paper is of a general nature only and does not constitute financial product
advice. This presentation has been prepared without taking account of any person's objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of that, each person should, before
acting on this presentation, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs. You should consult a professional investment
adviser before making any decision regarding a financial product.
In preparing this presentation the author has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from
public sources or which has otherwise been reviewed in preparation of the paper. The information contained in this paper is current as at the date of this paper and is subject
to change without notice. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
Neither Folkestone Limited, nor any of their associates, related entities or directors, give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information
contained in this paper. Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, Folkestone Limited and its associates, related entities, directors, employees and
consultants do not accept any liability for any loss or damage (whether direct, indirect, consequential or otherwise) arising from the use of this paper.
If a product managed by Folkestone Limited or its associates is acquired, Folkestone Limited or its associates and related entities may receive fees and other benefits. The
author of this paper does not receive commissions or remuneration from transactions involving the financial products mentioned in this paper.
DIRECTORY
Folkestone Limited
ASX Code: FLK
Website: www.folkestone.com.au
ABN: 21 004 715 226
Level 12, 15 William Street
Melbourne Vic 3000
T: +61 3 8601 2092
Level 10, 60 Carrington Street
Sydney, NSW 2000
T: +61 2 8667 2800
Board of Directors:
Garry Sladden – Non-Executive Chairman
Mark Baillie – Non-Executive Deputy Chairman
Greg Paramor – Managing Director
Ross Strang – Non-Executive Director
Company Secretary:
Scott Martin
Investor Relations:
Lula Liossi
T: +61 3 8601 2668
Email: [email protected]
Registry:
Boardroom Pty Limited
PO Box R67, Royal Exchange NSW 1223
Telephone: 1300 131 856 or +61 2 9290 9600
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: www.boardroomlimited.com.au