fog prediction in a 3d model with parameterized microphysics mathias d. müller 1, matthieu masbou...
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Fog prediction in a 3D model with parameterized microphysics
Mathias D. Müller1, Matthieu Masbou2, Andreas Bott2, Zavisa I. Janjic3
1) Institute of Meteorology Climatology & Remote SensingUniversity of Basel, Switzerland
2) Meteorological Institue, University of Bonn
3) NOAA/NCEP
WSN-05 TOULOUSE, Sept. 2005
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NMM (Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) dynamical framework
PAFOG microphysics
NMM_PAFOG
Droplet number concentration
Liquid water content
Condensation/evaporation in the lowest 1500 m is replaced by PAFOG
Janjic, Z. I., 2003: A Nonhydrostatic Model Based on a New Approach. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 82, 271-285.
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PAFOG microphysics
Detailed condensation/evaporation (parameterized Köhler [Sakakibara 1979, Chaumerilac et. al. 1987])
Evolving droplet population (prognostic mean diameter)
Droplet size dependent sedimentation
Positive definite advection scheme (Bott 1989)
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PAFOG microphysics
Assumption on the droplet size distribution : Log-normal function
D droplet Diameter
Dc,0 mean value of D
σc Standart deviation of the given droplet size distribution (σc=0.2)
where S is the Supersaturation
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Supersat.
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Boundary conditions for dNc
1000m
PAFOG TOP
PAFOG TOP
1000 m
σc
HEIGHT
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GFS
NMM-22
NMM-4 NMM-2 15 UTC
Nesting
NMM_PAFOG
NMM_PAFOGGRID: 50 x 50 x 45 (+11 soil layers)dx: 1 kmdt: 2s (dynamics) / 10s (physics)CPU: 40 min/24hr on 9 Pentium-4
(very efficient!)
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19:00 MEZ (3 hr forecast)
PAFOG
STANDARD
27 Nov 2004
DROPLET NUMBER CONCENTRATIONLIQUID WATER CONTENT
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22:00 MEZ (6 hr forecast)
STANDARD
PAFOG
27 Nov 2004
DROPLET NUMBER CONCENTRATIONLIQUID WATER CONTENT
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02:00 MEZ (10 hr forecast)
STANDARD
PAFOG
28 Nov 2004
Accurate sedimentation in PAFOGdue to dNc computation.
DROPLET NUMBER CONCENTRATIONLIQUID WATER CONTENT
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08:00 MEZ (16 hr forecast)
PAFOG
STANDARD
28 Nov 2004
DROPLET NUMBER CONCENTRATIONLIQUID WATER CONTENT
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10:00 MEZ (18 hr forecast)
STANDARD
PAFOG
28 Nov 2004
DROPLET NUMBER CONCENTRATIONLIQUID WATER CONTENT
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qc at 5m height (01:00 MEZ)
PAFOG STANDARD
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qc at 5m height (06:00 MEZ)
PAFOG STANDARD
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Cold air pooling (05:00 MEZ)
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Cold bias problem
Z.Janjic
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var
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ilatio
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Obser -vations
3D-Model runs
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3D - Forecast time
1D Ensemble prediction system
www.meteoblue.ch
1D-models
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With assimilation – CASE 1 15:00
27-28 Nov 2004 observed fog
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28-29 Nov 2004
With assimilation – CASE 2 15:00
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Conclusions
3D model with detailed microphysics
Promising first results
Computationally very efficient and feasible in todays operationalframework
More cases and ‘verification’ needed
Solves advection problem of 1D approach
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GRID of NMM_PAFOG
50 x 50 x 45
27 layers in the lowest 1000 m
11 soil layers
Thickness(cm):0.50.75 1.21.82.74.06.0103060100
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Advection statistics
1 December 2004 – 30 April 2005, all forecasthours and levels
Deviation often stronger than signal
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Fog case - Observations
CASE 1 CASE 2
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Assimilation example
28 Nov 2004Zürich Kloten Airport
21 hour forecastof NMM-2
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Chaumerliac, N., Richard, E. & Pinty, J.-P. (1987), Sulfur scavenging in a mesoscale model with quasi-spectral microphysic : Two dimensional results for continental and maritime clouds, J. Geophys. Res. 92, 3114- 3126.
Berry, E.X & Pranger, M. P. (1974), Equation for calculating the terminal velocities of water drops, J. Appl. Meteor. 13, 108-113.
Bott, A. (1989), A positive definite advection schemme obtained by nonlinear renormalization of the advective fluxes, Monthly Weather Review 117, 1006-1015.
Bott, A. & Trautmann, T. (2002), PAFOG – a new efficient forecast model of radiation fog and low-level stratiform clouds, Atmospheric Research 64, 191-203.
References
Janjic, Z. I., 2003: A Nonhydrostatic Model Based on a New Approach. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 82, 271-285.
Janjic, Z. I., J. P. Gerrity, Jr. and S. Nickovic, 2001: An Alternative Approach to Nonhydrostatic Modeling. Monthly Weather Review, 129, 1164-1178
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Sakakibara, H. (1979), A scheme for stable numerical computation of the condensation process with large time step, J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 57, 349-353.
Twomey, S. (1959), The nuclei of natural cloud formation. Part ii : The supersaturation in natural clouds and the variation of cloud droplet concentration, Geophys. Pura Appl. 43, 243-249.
References
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Write in incremental Form
Introduce T and U transform to eliminate B from the cost function
(physical space)
(Control variable space)
Cost function for variational assimilation
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Error covariance matrix
NMC-Method (use 3D models):
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NMC estimates of B (winter season)
NMM-4 1400 UTC
large model and time dependence