© FocusEconomics 2020ISSN 2013-4975

FOCUSECONOMICS CORONAVIRUS WEEKLY UPDATE2 9 A P R I L

PUBLICATION DATE 29 April 2020FORECASTS COLLECTED 27–28 April 2020 for the global survey, 22–27 April for country reportsINFORMATION AVAILABLE Up to and including 28 April 2020NEXT EDITION 6 May 2020

INDONESIAJAPAN MEXICORUSSIASOUTH KOREA SPAIN UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES

RICARD TORNÉ Head of Data Analysis

WILLIAM O’CONNELL EditorEDWARD GARDNER EconomistLINDSEY ICE EconomistJAN LAMMERSEN Economist

OLIVER REYNOLDS EconomistALMANAS STANAPEDIS EconomistSTEPHEN VOGADO Economist

THOMAS FENGE Head of Data Solutions

JOSÉ DANIEL MARÍN Data Scientist

FREDERICO T. ABREU Junior Data AnalystJOAN ARGILAGÓS Data AnalystLAURA AZLOR Junior Data Analyst DAVID CATALÁN Junior Data AnalystMOHAMMED ESSABAOUNI Junior Data AnalystSTÉPHANIE HOBEICHE Junior Data AnalystMAR LOBATO Junior Data AnalystYULIANNA VALENCIA Junior Data AnalystSARA VALVERDE Junior Data AnalystBENCE VÁRADI Junior Data Scientist

OVERVIEW AND QUARTERLY GDP FORECASTS AVAILABLE FOR:

ARGENTINA BRAZIL CHILECHINA FRANCE GERMANY ITALY

INDIA*Please inquire for access

ContributorsARNE POHLMAN Chief Economist

ANGELA BOUZANIS Lead Economist

NICOLAS J. AGUILAR EconomistHANNA ANDERSSON EconomistMASSIMO BASSETTI Economist STEVEN BURKE EconomistJAVIER COLATO EconomistOLGA COSCODAN Economist

29 April 2020

www.focus-economics.com

• Economists remain deeply pessimistic about the outlook for the global economy. According to a 27–28 April survey of72 panelists, 26% see the coronavirus pandemic hitting 2020 global growth by more than five percentage points, downonly slightly from the 28% recorded in last week’s report.

• However, compared to last week’s report, analysts grew less gloomy about the length of the downturn. Most now seea global recession lasting for two quarters (in the 20–21 April survey a majority saw a recession lasting three quarters ormore), potentially driven by some countries announcing plans to lift some lockdown restrictions. Risks to the outlookare still unusually elevated though, due to uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic, the duration of worldwidecontainment measures, the effectiveness of stimulus packages and the possibility of a second wave of infections.

• A large majority of economists expect a U-shaped recovery, implying only a gradual rebound in activity, with a smallerproportion of panelists projecting V (which implies economic activity will suddenly rebound), L (a very slow recovery)and W (a short period of recovery followed by a second downturn and subsequent recovery) shapes.

• Roughly three-quarters of panelists continue to expect further monetary easing from major central banks on top ofthe substantive measures already announced, with many panelists expecting further steps to boost liquidity. On thewhole, panelists still do not see the Covid-19 pandemic morphing into a broader financial crisis thanks to huge stimuluspackages, although some economists continued to highlight high debt levels as a key risk factor.

2.7%4.2%

5.6%

9.7%

15.3%16.7%

11.1%

8.3%

4.2%

11.1% 11.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1.1–1.5 pp 1.6–2.0 pp 2.1–2.5 pp 2.6–3.0 pp 3.1–3.5 pp 3.6–4.0 pp 4.1–4.5 pp 4.6–5.0 pp 5.1–5.5 pp 5.6–6.0 pp > 6.0 pp

What will be the negative impact of Covid-19 on 2020 global growth in percentage points?

Note: Total responses in %.

Most economists see U-shaped recovery from steep global downturn

1

8

17

44

1

0 10 20 30 40 50

5 quarters

4 quarters

3 quarters

2 quarters

1 quarter

Note: Number of times mentioned by panelists.

U-shape76%

V-shape13%

L-shape1%

W-shape7%

Other3%

What will be the shape of the global economic recovery?

Note: Total responses in %.

For how many quarters will the global recession last?

www.focus-economics.com

YES13%

29 April 2020

Yes74%

No26%

Insight from our panelists“It is very likely that poorer regions will fare worst. Being a global crisis, with all countries affected, the weakest ones will have more problems to cope with the virus but also the satisfaction of basic needs for a large part of the population. I think falls in GDP tell us very little about people’s suffering. [...] It looks quite sure that the recovery will be slow, supply chains will change, probably world potential GDP growth will be slower and there are going to be changes over the next several decades in the way countries relate to each other, not necessarily for the best.”

Alejandro Fernández, chief economist at Gemines

“Forecasts seem to have converged after the costs of social distancing have sunk in. There’s still a huge amount of uncertainty about possible 2nd waves of infections, adverse financial amplification effects especially in emerging markets and the ability of fiscal/credit policies to minimise long-term output effects.”

Daniel Solomon, senior economist at Euromonitor

“As of now, corporate debt and insolvencies appear still manageable”.

Claus Michelsen, head of forecasting at DIW Berlin

“Some deeply affected EU states, namely Italy, Spain and Portugal, have high public debt ratios; as such, new bailouts are possible in the near future.”

Pedro Afonso Fernandes, senior economist at Universidade Catolica Portuguesa (NECEP)

“Banks remain in a better shape than 11 years ago, as central banks are all-in to support the global financial sector.”

Janwillem Acket, chief economist at Julius Baer

Note: Total responses in %.

“Some easing in lockdowns in various economies globally has seen risk aversion subside somewhat in internal markets, as markets are beginning to anticipate some turning in the global economy. While global financial markets have not yet entered a period of sustained, or even substantial risk-on, financial markets tend to lead economic data, and the extreme levels of uncertainty in markets earlier this month and last month seem to have waned somewhat.”

Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec Ltd

“Economies are confronted with a crisis that not only threatens human life but disrupts production chains. For the first time, both sides of the economy collapse–both demand and supply. People cannot go to work, they do not produce, their incomes shrink, consumption also. And it happens all over the world at the same time. There will be a serious relocation of business activity which could take years.”

Petia Tzekova, chief economist at UBB

“The epidemic seems to be peaking in most major economies, where restrictions will be lifted during May. New infection waves seem unavoidable but are not expected to lead to further economic lockdowns in most countries. These secondary infectious waves will be less aggressive–either because a larger part of the population has already been infected and is immunized, or because the population is more aware of how to prevent the proliferation of the virus. Besides, health systems in most countries have already been strengthened and are better prepared to face new waves of infection, as well as to carry out mass tests. Under these circumstances, the global recession, although acute, is still expected to be relatively short.”

Luis Suzigan, senior advisor at LCA Consultores

Note: Total responses in %.

Will there be further monetary stimulus from majorcentral banks?

Yes17%

No83%

Will the coronavirus-induced slump morph into abroader financial crisis?

www.focus-economics.com

YES13%

29 April 2020

Contributing institutionsACRA, Aktif Bank, Analytica, Andes Investments, Axesor Rating, Ayudhya PCL, Banco de Bogota, Banco Fator, Banco Supervielle, Banesco Banco Universal, Bank Leumi, BBVA Argentina, BBVA Mexico, BCP, BCS Global Markets, CAF, CaixaBank, CEPREDE, CER, Citadele bank, DIW Berlin, DZ BANK, E2 Economia, Ecoanalitica, Ecolatina, Econometrica, Euromonitor, Funcas, Fynsa, GBM, Gemines, Goodbody, Haitong, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), Halyk Finance, IHS, Ifo Institute, Investec Ltd, Julius Baer, KAF Research, Kasikorn Research, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Komercni banka, Kopint-Tarki, LCA Consultores, Moody’s Analytics, National Bank of Greece, National Institute Of Economic Research of Republic Moldova, OCBC, OFCE, Oxford Economics, Petros, Prometeia, Raiffeisen Bank International, RHB Bank, S&P Global Ratings, SEB, Seido, Swedbank, Swiss Economic Institute, Thorne & Associates, UBB, Universidade Catolica Portuguesa (NECEP), Ve Por Más, Zürcher Kantonalbank.

www.focus-economics.com

Get a free trial now!

WANT TO SEE MORE COUNTRY-SPECIFIC INSIGHTS?

GET ACCESS NOW TO OUR SIMPLE PLATFORM WITH THE LATEST ANALYSIS AND DATA FROM TOP ECONOMISTS

SIDE-BY-SIDE VIEW OF FORECASTER PREDICTONS

for easy comparison

FocusEconomics collects and summarises forecasts for 130+ countries directly from economists based at leading professional forecasters,

providing time-saving reliable country insights to businesses across the world since 1999.

SHORT FOCUSED COUNTRY ANALYSIS

with insight from top economists

YES13%

29 April 2020

www.focus-economics.com

USER-FRIENDLY DATA SHEETSin an easy-to-read format

Trusted by

SUBSCRIPTION & PRICING INFORMATIONFor information on how to subscribe or to purchase individual reports, contact us at:

info@focus-economics.com +34 932 651 040

YES13%

29 April 2020

www.focus-economics.com

FocusEconomics reports are designed to give you fast access to the data and insight you need so that you can make the right decisions for your business. Our reports provide hundreds of economic and commodities price forecasts from our network of more than 1200 of the most reputable economic analysts in the world.

MAJOR ECONOMIES & SWITZERLAND G7 countries (United States, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Euro area, France, Germany & Italy), Switzerland and overview of the BRIC countriesEURO AREA Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and SpainNORDIC ECONOMIES Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and SwedenCENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and SloveniaCIS PLUS COUNTRIES Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and UzbekistanSOUTH-EASTERN EUROPE Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and TurkeyEAST & SOUTH ASIA Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Korea, Mongolia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Australia and New ZealandASEAN ECONOMIES Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and New ZealandLATIN AMERICA Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and VenezuelaCENTRAL AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN Belize, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico and Trinidad and TobagoMIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and YemenSUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Angola, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe

ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR KEY INDICATORS IN 131 COUNTRIES IN 12 REGIONS

REAL SECTOR GDP per capita, Economic Growth, Consumption, Investment, Industrial Production, Unemployment Rate, Fiscal Balance and Public DebtMONETARY & FINANCIAL SECTOR Money, Inflation Rate, Policy Interest Rate and Exchange RateEXTERNAL SECTOR Current Account, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, International Reserves and External Debt

ENERGY Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Coking Coal, Gasoil (European market), Gasoline (U.S. benchmark), Natural Gas, Thermal Coal and UraniumBASE METALS Alumina, Aluminium, Cobalt, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Molybdenum, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S. markets), Tin and ZincPRECIOUS METALS Gold, Silver, Palladium and PlatinumAGRICULTURAL Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Palm Oil, Soybeans, Rice, Sugar, Wheat and Wool

PRICE FORECASTS FOR 34 COMMODITIES IN 4 MAIN GROUPS

SUBSCRIPTION & PRICING INFORMATIONFor information on how to subscribe or to purchase individual reports, contact us at:

info@focus-economics.com +34 932 651 040

www.focus-economics.com

YES13%

29 April 2020