March 2015 | the gulf the gulf | March 201524 25

featurefeature AV I AT I O N AV I AT I O N

The apparent targeting of an aircraft operated by Flydubai, the short-haul affiliate of emirates Airline, during a routine landing at

Baghdad International Airport (BIAP) has rightly rattled nerves in the Gulf aviation sector, coming just six months after the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (Mh17) in eastern Ukraine.

Although there are few direct parallels between the incidents - one involved a sophisticated surface-to-air missile; the other rudimentary small-arms fire - threats to airspace securi-ty are never taken lightly by govern-ments. This applies doubly so in Iraq, where the Islamic State (IS) boasts in its armoury a variety of anti-aircraft guns and shoulder-fired MANPADS (man-portable air-defence systems), including the Russian-made SA-16 and SA-18, and the Chinese-made FN-6. Shootdowns of government aircraft have been documented on both sides of the Iraq/Syria border.

The burning question for travellers is whether or not such weapons pose a credible threat to civilian aircraft at BIAP. Unfortunately, the answer is almost certainly yes. BIAP is situat-ed between central Baghdad and its western suburbs, which include Sunni farmlands that at best harbour tribal sympathisers to IS, and at worst have been actively infiltrated by insurgents.

IRAQ

Recent incidents affecting aircraft landing at Baghdads international airport underline the risks airlines, and passengers, run when using Iraqs main gateway

Under fire

by Martin Riversthegulf@tradearabia.net

repeated targeting of planes was likely to result in fatalities. It was not clear whether he meant mass-casualty events arising from a total hull loss, or isolated deaths caused by bullets puncturing the passenger cabin.

According to Sajad Jiyad, director of research at consultancy Integrity, airlines that operate to BIAP try to minimise the risk of ground fire by approaching from the south, away from the Sunni-dominated heartland under IS control. But, when foreign dignitar-ies fly into the gateway, civilian airlines are sometimes given alternate flight-paths at a moments notice, clearing the skies for drones while keeping the travel plans of VIPs under wraps until the last minute.

every now and then the flight pattern changes and sometimes a plane is forced to come in over the side next to Abu Ghraib, next to Anbar province, he told Newsweek. When [an aircraft]

is in its landing phase, its relatively easy to hit if you know where to be at the right time.

It is impossible to know whether the incidents to date have been opportu-nistic pot-shots by tribal sympathisers, or carefully planned jihadist attacks. But the potential consequences of such actions are plain for all to see. Last year, the downing of Mh17 by a surface-to-air missile claimed 298 civilian lives. One month previously, an attack on a Pakistan International Airlines jet landing in Peshawar killed one female passenger and wounded two flight attendants. About ten bullets struck the plane - likely fired from a heavy machine gun - and the pilot said he believed the assailants had been aiming at the cockpit and fuel tanks.

Just as several airlines suspended flights to Peshawar following that incident, there was an exodus from BIAP after the latest shooting. Flydubai,

A photo posted on Twitter shows damage caused to the Flydubai airplane as it landed at Baghdad recently

emirates Airline, Sharjah's Air Arabia and Abu Dhabis etihad Airways all withdrew, heeding a safety directive from the UAes civil aviation author-ity. Qatar Airways, Turkish Airlines, Lebanon's Middle east Airlines, Bahrains Gulf Air and Royal Jordanian Airlines also cancelled services.

The latter five have all since resumed serving Baghdad, while Air Arabia and Flydubai were at the time of writing the only emirati carriers to have returned. They did so after the UAe authori-ties said that Iraqi investigators had verified that the incident was acciden-tal and not intentional.

Iraq is a warzone, and as such its main airport will always be consid-ered a high-value asset by the govern-ment, and a high-value target by insurgents. Baghdads commitment to safeguarding the gateway was affirmed last summer, when the authorities - shell-shocked by ISs lightning assault on northern and western territories - allowed Washington to position six Apache attack helicopters and 200 US soldiers at BIAP. With that kind of firepower protecting the airport, a large-scale attack on the complex is not a realistic prospect. Travellers can feel safe within the confines of BIAP.

But history shows us that civilian aircraft are vulnerable to ground fire during take-offs and landings, especially in territory occupied by well-equipped, well-trained insurgents. even in a post-Mh17 world, the responsibil-ity for opening or closing a countrys airspace lies solely with its sovereign government. Baghdad insists that its skies are safe. It is up to individual airlines, and individual passengers, to decide whether or not that assessment is objective and credible.