flswm 2040 traffic projection hongbo chi. introduction flswm provides travel forecasting over the...
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FLSWM 2040 Traffic Projection
Hongbo Chi
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Introduction
• FLSWM provides travel forecasting over the entire state reflecting long range demographic and socioeconomic growth.
• It requires additional procedure to validate the model according to the observed traffic count data.
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Methodology Framework
Base Year Scenario
Year 2040 Scenario
OD Matrix Estimation
Growth Factor Method
Adjusted 2040 OD Matrix
Adjusted 2040 traffic volume
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The Applications Added to FLSWM
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OD Matrix Estimation• Cube Analyst 2 is used
Start
Highway Assignment
Extract ICP files
OD Estimation
Obj
End
Update OD matrix
Convergent
A: the route choice probability matrix (ICP files). X: the OD matrix to be estimated. b: the observed traffic count vector.X0: the initial OD matrix. F,G: weighting factors.
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OD Matrix Estimation ResultITR
RMSE% for Different Volume Ranges
Over all [20000,Inf] [10000,20000] [5000,10000] [0,5000]1 35.10% 25.00% 35.20% 36.00% 77.70%2 27.20% 19.50% 26.30% 29.40% 67.90%3 24.50% 17.50% 23.50% 27.40% 61.20%4 22.10% 15.80% 21.00% 25.60% 54.70%5 20.20% 14.60% 19.20% 23.90% 48.20%6 18.80% 13.40% 17.90% 22.90% 43.40%
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Growth Factor Method
• A simple method to calibrate the future year OD matrix:
OD40calibrated=OD05calibrated+(OD40-OD05)
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Model setting
• The model selection for base year scenario
• The model selection for 2040 scenario
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Requirement for Computer
• The recommended configuration for computer– CPU: Intel (R), 2 Quad CPU 2.4 GHZ– Memory: 8 GB memory
• The model running time– Base year: 70 hours– Year 2040: 2 hours