floods : the awesome power suzanne van cooten, ph.d – noaa/oar national severe storms laboratory
TRANSCRIPT
Floods : The Awesome Power
Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D – NOAA/OAR National Severe Storms Laboratory
How Is A Flood Defined?
Webster’s Dictionary
1 a : A rising and overflowing of a body of water especially onto normally dry land; also : a condition of overflowing <rivers in flood> b capitalized : a flood described in the Bible as covering the earth in the time of Noah2 : The flowing in of the tide3 : An overwhelming quantity or volume; also : a state of abundant flow or volume <a debate in full flood>
A flood which occurs within six hours or less of the causative event. In some parts of the Nation, the actual time threshold for an event to be considered a flash flood may be less than six hours.
Any high flow, overflow, or inundation by water which causes or threatens damage.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER 26, 2002 Operations and Services Hydrologic Services Program, NWSPD 10-9
How Is A Flash Flood Defined?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER 26, 2002Operations and Services Hydrologic Services Program, NWSPD 10-9
A local flood of great volume and short duration generally resulting from heavy rainfall in the immediate vicinity
Webster’s Dictionary
Etymology: Middle English, from Old English flOd; akin to Old High German fluot flood, Old English flOwan to flow
How Can I Decide if it is a Flood or a Flash Flood?
Duration of Time from Precipitation Event(s) to onset of flooding
Common Flash Flood Producers- Heavy Localized Rainfall, Dam or Levee Failure, Sudden Release of Water held by an Ice Jam or Debris Flow
Common Flood Producers- Regional Excessive Rainfall, Mainstem Seasonal River System Flooding
Floods- An International Perspective
International Events
Windstorms (Includes Tornadoes and Hurricanes)
50 Percent of 650 Registered Events
96 Percent of Insured Loss for 2004
“Fab Four” consisting of Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne were the “costliest combination of storms in history.”
Economic Losses of 60 Billion with 30 Billion carried by Insurance Industry
Jeanne was responsible for record rainfall in Haiti and Dominican Republic where 2,000 people were killed in floods and torrents of mud
Ivan was responsible for 11 billion in insured losses
Japan was hit by a record 10 tropical cyclones from June-October
Typhoons Chaba, Songda, and Tokage produced damage in excess of 14 billion with 7 billion
dollars carried by the insurance industry
November- Tropical Storm Winnie produced torrential rains over the Phillipines with 750 people killed in flood waters and landslides
Floods and Flash Floods
One Quarter of all Natural Events (150)
January- February- Brazil Experienced its worst flood catastrophe in 15 years with 160 people dead
May- Haiti and Dominican Republic 2000 people died due to flood waters and mudslides
June –August Monsoon Floods in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal
Bangladesh 2/3 of the country was under water for most of the time
2200 people drowned and 5 billion in economic loss
June-September China River Floods
Hundreds of thousands of buildings destroyed
1,000 people drowned and economic losses of 8 billion dollars
Storm Related Fatalities 1975-2004
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
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82
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20
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04
Year
Nu
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Fata
liti
es
Flood Lightning Tornado Hurricane
2004 Fatality Summary - 82 Flood , 34 Tornado, 34 Hurricane, 31 Lightning, 27 Cold, 28 Winter, 6 Heat
United States
Flood Fatalities and Economic Impacts
Percent of Total Storm Related Hazard Fatalities 1975-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4
Year
Pe
rce
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To
tal
Flood Lightning Tornado Hurricane
30 Year Average (1975-2004) Flood = 107, Lightning = 64, Tornado = 54, Hurricane = 15
10 Year Average (1995-2004) Flood = 88, Lightning = 49, Tornado = 57, Hurricane = 21
Flood Fatality Information from NWS Hydrologic Information Center Other Hazard Fatality Information from NWS Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics
Storm Data 1995-2004 Hazards Loss
0
2000
4000
6000
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10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
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oss
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Cumulative of Other Winter TS/Hurricanes Marine Flood Total Extreme Temperatures Convection
Pielke, Jr., R.A., M.W. Downton, and J.Z. Barnard Miller, 2002: Flood Damage in the United States, 1926-2000: A Reanalysis of National Weather Service Estimates. Boulder, CO: UCAR.
With Caveats on Flood Data Economic Tabulations as outlined in
Calendar Calendar Year Year
Loss Dollars Loss Dollars Paid Paid
19781978 $147,719,253$147,719,253
19791979 $483,281,219$483,281,219
19801980 $230,414,295$230,414,295
19811981 $127,118,031$127,118,031
19821982 $198,295,820$198,295,820
19831983 $439,454,937$439,454,937
19841984 $254,642,874$254,642,874
19851985 $368,216,285$368,216,285
19861986 $126,388,098$126,388,098
19871987 $105,422,538$105,422,538
19881988 $51,022,523$51,022,523
19891989 $661,668,435$661,668,435
19901990 $167,919,559$167,919,559
19911991 $353,682,166$353,682,166
19921992 $710,247,980$710,247,980
19931993 $659,092,451$659,092,451
19941994 $411,079,605$411,079,605
19951995$1,295,481,51$1,295,481,5122
19961996 $828,040,721$828,040,721
19971997 $519,504,541$519,504,541
19981998 $885,998,681$885,998,681
19991999 $754,823,272$754,823,272
20002000 $251,502,332$251,502,332
20012001$1,276,439,58$1,276,439,5899
20022002 $432,518,918$432,518,918
20032003 $759,785,550$759,785,550
20042004$1,207,212,37$1,207,212,3777
National Flood Insurance Program – FEMA Web Page
Types of Flash Floods/Floods
Flash Floods
Intense “Quick-Burst” Rainfall
Ice Jam/Debris Flows
Dam Failures
Landfalling Tropical Systems
Floods (Prolonged Regional River System Flooding)
Rainfall – Intensity, Duration, Frequency (Antecedent Conditions) Time of Day and Season (Outdoor
Activities)
Flash Flood Significant Events
June 14, 1990 – Shadyside, Ohio (Evening)
Most Deadly and Destructive Flash Flood since 1980
15-20 Foot Wall of Water
26 People Killed- 2 Bodies Recovered 30 Miles Downstream At he Hannibal Locks and Dam on the Ohio River
80 Homes Destroyed, 250 Damaged with 6-8 Million Dollars in Damage
July 31, 1976 – Big Thompson Canyon Flood, Colorado (Evening)
8 Inches of Rainfall in One Hour
139 People with 30 Million Dollars of Damage
3-5 Inches Of Rain In Less Than 2 Hours Fell On Saturated Soils
Ice Jams (From US Corps of Engineers Data and Web Pages)
Israel River, Lancaster, NH Ice Jam DatabaseUS Army, ERDC, CRREL-Ice Engineering Group72 Lyme RoadHanover, NH 03755
Phone: 603-646-4187Fax: 603-646-4477E-mail: [email protected]
The rates of water level rise can vary from feet per minute to feet per hour during ice jam flooding. In some instances, communities have many hours of lead time between the time an ice jam forms and the start of flooding. In other cases, the lead time is a little as one hour.
For example, in March 1992, an ice jam developed at 7:00 a.m. in Montpelier, VT. By 8:00 a.m. the downtown area was flooded (Figure 2-3). During the next 11 hours, the business district was covered with an average of 1.2 to 1.5 m (4 to 5 ft) of water. The event occurred so quickly that there was not sufficient time to warn residents so they could protect their goods. Even after water levels dropped, damage related to the flooding continued as cold temperatures caused freezeup of wet objects. Damages of less than one day were estimated at $5 million (FEMA 1992b).
Wednesday, March 11, 1992Wednesday, March 11, 1992
6:57A6:57A A large ice jam on the Winooski River breaks loose about the Pioneer Street Bridge and A large ice jam on the Winooski River breaks loose about the Pioneer Street Bridge and travels through Montpelier. Ice jams just below the Bailey Avenue Bridge and travels through Montpelier. Ice jams just below the Bailey Avenue Bridge and dams the river. dams the river.
7:05A 7:05A Filled with rain and snowmelt, the Winooski begins to overflow its banks along State Filled with rain and snowmelt, the Winooski begins to overflow its banks along State Street and the North branch begins backing up onto Elm Street.Street and the North branch begins backing up onto Elm Street.
7:15A 7:15A Water surges dramatically into low-lying areas behind Main and State StreetsWater surges dramatically into low-lying areas behind Main and State Streets
7:23A 7:23A Radio stations are notified of a flood emergency as first warnings are issued.Radio stations are notified of a flood emergency as first warnings are issued.
7:45A7:45A Icy flood waters hit the steam heating boiler at Business on Main Street and the boiler Icy flood waters hit the steam heating boiler at Business on Main Street and the boiler explodes, shattering the glass storefront and destroying the basement.explodes, shattering the glass storefront and destroying the basement.
7:56A7:56A Two to three feet of water is reported in front of Days Inn on State Street where an Two to three feet of water is reported in front of Days Inn on State Street where an estimated 100 people are stranded. Flood waters pout onto Main Street, stalling estimated 100 people are stranded. Flood waters pout onto Main Street, stalling cars and making the road impassable. Backed-up water from the swollen North cars and making the road impassable. Backed-up water from the swollen North Branch flows upstream on Elm Street.Branch flows upstream on Elm Street.
8:09A 8:09A Evacuations begin of hundreds of stranded residents, workers and state employees on Evacuations begin of hundreds of stranded residents, workers and state employees on Main, State and Elm Street. Some wade to safety, while others are taken out by Main, State and Elm Street. Some wade to safety, while others are taken out by boat or by fire engines and dump trucks.boat or by fire engines and dump trucks.
8:30A 8:30A Gov. Howard Dean declares a state of emergency in the capital and closes state offices. Gov. Howard Dean declares a state of emergency in the capital and closes state offices. The National Guard is called in to assist, and state police, game wardens and other The National Guard is called in to assist, and state police, game wardens and other public safety crews begin arriving to help in the disaster.public safety crews begin arriving to help in the disaster.
8:46A8:46A A Red Cross emergency shelter is set up at the gymnasium at Vermont College.A Red Cross emergency shelter is set up at the gymnasium at Vermont College.
9:00A 9:00A Human chains of volunteers work successfully in frigid waters to save historic Human chains of volunteers work successfully in frigid waters to save historic documents stored in the basement of the Pavilion Building. On Main Street, similar documents stored in the basement of the Pavilion Building. On Main Street, similar efforts rescue about 18,000 children's books from the basement of Kellogg-efforts rescue about 18,000 children's books from the basement of Kellogg-Hubbard Library and thousands of videotapes in the basement of the Savoy Hubbard Library and thousands of videotapes in the basement of the Savoy Theater.Theater.
10:0710:07AA
Power crews shut off electricity in downtown Montpelier because of high fire and Power crews shut off electricity in downtown Montpelier because of high fire and explosion hazards from leaking fuel oil and propane. Many telephone lines are out. explosion hazards from leaking fuel oil and propane. Many telephone lines are out. About 200 buildings in the downtown area are flooded.About 200 buildings in the downtown area are flooded.
3:00P 3:00P Backhoes and a crane move into place and begin dislodging the ice jam below Bailey Backhoes and a crane move into place and begin dislodging the ice jam below Bailey Avenue Bridge.Avenue Bridge.
4:57P4:57P After getting the ice flowing, a second jam occurs, sending a surge of water After getting the ice flowing, a second jam occurs, sending a surge of water back up into Montpelier to cause the worst flooding of the day.back up into Montpelier to cause the worst flooding of the day.
5:10P5:10P The ice jam is knocked loose again, and begins moving downstream.The ice jam is knocked loose again, and begins moving downstream.
5:17P5:17P Huge ice chunks grinding downriver lift and twist half the trestle railroad bridge near Huge ice chunks grinding downriver lift and twist half the trestle railroad bridge near Bailey Avenue off its foundation, leaving it perpendicular to the rest of the bridge Bailey Avenue off its foundation, leaving it perpendicular to the rest of the bridge and pointing downstream.and pointing downstream.
5:31P5:31P The last ice clears the Bailey Avenue Bridge, and flood waters rapidly drain from The last ice clears the Bailey Avenue Bridge, and flood waters rapidly drain from downtown.downtown.
6:13P6:13P Frigid weather and blowing snow descend as downtown Montpelier is cordoned off and a Frigid weather and blowing snow descend as downtown Montpelier is cordoned off and a curfew is set. The city remains closed until noon, Saturday, March 14, as an army curfew is set. The city remains closed until noon, Saturday, March 14, as an army of workers, volunteers & municipal crews pump basements, remove more than 650 of workers, volunteers & municipal crews pump basements, remove more than 650 dump truck loads of debris and repair damage.dump truck loads of debris and repair damage.
Dam Breaks
June 1, 1889 Johnstown, Pennsylvania
20 Million Tons of Water Released
Official City Records list 2,207 dead but witnesses claim more
March 12, 1928 – St Francisquito Canyon, California
William Mulholland's great St. Francis Dam broke at three minutes before midnight on March 12, 1928, sending a 180-foot-high wall of water crashing down San Francisquito Canyon and claiming approximately 470 lives by the time the floodwaters reached the Pacific Ocean at Ventura.
The piano keyboard in the foreground of this photograph is an eerie reminder of the families that were caught unawares in the middle of that fateful night. The flood was the second-worst disaster in California
www.scvhistory.com
Its waters swept through the Santa Clara Valley toward the Pacific Ocean, about 54 miles away. 65 miles of valley was devastated before the water finally made its way into the ocean between Oxnard and Ventura. At its peak the wall of water was said to be 78 feet high; by the time it hit Santa Paula, 42 miles south of the dam, the water was estimated to be 25 feet deep. Almost everything in its path was destroyed: livestock, structures, railways, bridges, livestock, and orchards. By the time it was over, parts of Ventura County lay under 70 feet of mud and debris. Over 500 people were killed and damage estimates topped $20 million. ((www.USC.EDU)
history, second only to the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906
November 1977 at 1:30 AM- Kelly Barnes Dam (Rock Crib) Toccoa, Georgia Dam Failure
40 People Died (Almost 50 percent
Children) In 1899 Original dam constructed of interlocking sections of timber
or concrete, forming cells which are filled with earth or broken rock.
Rappaport, E. Loss of Life In The United States Associated With Recent Atlantic Tropical
Cyclones. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Vol 81, No. 9, September 2000.
YearYear MonthMonth Event Event Cause Cause NOAA NOAA Storm Storm Data Data Total Total LossLoss
NFIP # NFIP # Paid Paid LossesLosses
NFIP NFIP Amount Amount PaidPaid
NFIP NFIP AveragAverage Paid e Paid LossLoss
FatalitieFatalities s (Storm (Storm Data)Data)
20042004 SeptembeSeptemberr
Hurricane Hurricane IvanIvan
LandfallingTroLandfallingTropical System pical System
14 Billion14 Billion 28,05328,053 1,407,641,1,407,641,752752
50,17850,178 5757
2004 2004 SeptembeSeptemberr
Hurricane Hurricane FrancesFrances
LandfallingTroLandfallingTropical Systempical System
9 Billion9 Billion 6,5526,552 188,747,69188,747,6944
28,80828,808 4848
2004 2004 AugustAugust Hurricane Hurricane CharleyCharley
LandfallingTroLandfallingTropical Systempical System
15 Billion 15 Billion (Est)(Est)
3,0823,082 58,843,65258,843,652 19,09319,093 3434
2003 2003 SeptembeSeptemberr
Hurricane Hurricane IsabelIsabel
LandfallingTroLandfallingTropical Systempical System
5 Billion5 Billion 19,56919,569 460,975,88460,975,8899
23,55623,556 5555
2001 2001 JuneJune Tropical Tropical Storm AllisonStorm Allison
LandfallingTroLandfallingTropical Systempical System
5.1 5.1 BillionBillion
30,29130,291 1,095,419,1,095,419,259259
36,16336,163 43 43
19991999 SeptembeSeptemberr
Hurricane Hurricane FloydFloyd
LandfallingTroLandfallingTropical Systempical System
6.5 6.5 BillionBillion
18,61218,612 439,100,27439,100,2711
23,59223,592 7777
1998 1998 SeptembeSeptember r
Hurricane Hurricane Georges Georges
LandfallingTroLandfallingTropical Systempical System
6.5 6.5 BillionBillion
8,8328,832 149,384,69149,384,6944
16,91416,914 16 16
19981998 AugustAugust Hurricane Hurricane BonnieBonnie
LandfallingTroLandfallingTropical Systempical System
1.1 1.1 BillionBillion
2,4922,492 22,125,05522,125,055 8,8788,878 33
October-November 1998 Heavy Rains (Texas)
Number of Paid FEMA Losses: 4,678
Total FEMA Claims Paid: 76,257,393 (16,301 per claim)
Severe Flooding from 2 Heavy Rain Events
Approximately 1.0 (1.1 adj 2002) Billion In Damage
31 Deaths (NCDC Storm Data)
CDC Web Page 29 Deaths with 22 from vehicles driven into high water
http://floodsafety.com/media/pdfs/texas/October98.pdf
Northern Plains Flooding –April/May 1997
NCDC Storm Data – Approximately 3.7 (4.1 adjusted to 2002) Billion in damage/costs
NCDC Storm Data – 11 deaths
FEMA NFIP Number of Paid Losses =7,272
FEMA NFIP Total Losses Paid = 158,401,726 Dollars ($21,782 per claim)
The important factors that set the stage for potential significant flooding of the Red River and its tributaries during April 1997 included greatly enhanced snowfall during the winter and a substantial buildup of river ice throughout the northern half of the Red River. These conditions resulted from a series of major cold-air outbreaks and winter storms from September 1996 to April 1997. During this period more than 200% of normal snowfall was observed over most of North Dakota, western Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, with 125%-200% of normal snow covering the remainder of the upper Midwest, the northern Plains, Montana and most of Wyoming
The floods were then directly initiated by a highly abnormal thaw of this snowpack and river ice.
This highly unfavorable March-April 1997 thaw in the Red River Basin can be put into perspective by comparing it with the very favorable or "ideal" thaw of 1994, a year in which there was only minor flooding despite record or near-record snow fall at many locations during October 1993-February 1994. The 1994 thaw featured four periods of substantial basin-wide warming during March, along with significant refreezing at night. These conditions produced a much more uniform melt of snow and river ice throughout the basin, and resulted in a substantial reduction of the winter snowpack prior to the onset of the major April warming.
Floods – Not Only Nature’s Instruments of Change
Past Policy Decisions and How These Decisions Will Be Viewed As We Tckle Water Management Issues and Impacts in the 21st Century
Floods As Policy Drivers
Rising Tide: The Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 and How It Changed America John M. Barry
FLOODS ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI: AN HISTORICAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
The 1927 flood left a disastrous impact upon the entire 1,250,000 mile2 river drainage. The unprecedented rainfall began over the whole basin in late summer 1926, and didn't abate until the summer of 1927. The flooding began at Memphis in the fall of 1926 and it was late August of 1927 before the last of the flood waters flowed into the Gulf below New Orleans. The levee system was decimated with over 120 crevasses (Fig. 1) and 165 million acres were inundated. There were 246 fatalities and over 600 thousand people were made homeless. The total damage was estimated at $230 million.
John M. Barry in his book Rising Tide has eloquently outlined the social and economic impact of that natural disaster upon the nation. As Barry points out, a major portion of the 600 thousand people made homeless was black tenant farmers which made up the labor force of the agriculture-based Delta. Those refugees were not allowed to leave and were forced to work and live on the levees that year to provide damage control. Up to that time, flood relief and river management was largely driven by economics rather than humane concern for the citizens.
Relations between diverse racial and economic groups were needlessly strained by the lack of planning and flood management procedures. Fearing that a flood in New Orleans would ruin the economic structure and investment stature of that city, bankers and commodities brokers convinced the governor to open the levee at Caernarvon 14 miles downstream. The destruction of the levee and the resulting flood inundated the two lower parishes of Louisiana displacing thousands of people and destroying the trapping, farming, and fishing industries for the following several years. Given the crevasses upstream from New Orleans, the necessity of dynamiting the levee was questionable.
As a result of the devastation, the Flood Control Act of 1928 was passed. Levee and reservoir maintenance and management was placed in the hands of the Army Corps of Engineers (COE), with cooperation among levee boards, river commissions and emergency management officials.
Trotter, P. , G. Alan Johnson, Robert Ricks, David R. Smith NWSFO, New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LouisianaDonnel Woods, WSO/COE, Vicksburg, Mississippi
Southern Region Technical Attachment 98-9
NOAA Historical Photo Collection
FEMA/NOAA Aerial Photos
How Do I Get The Information?
Product Identifier Source Description
Flood Potential Outlook___ESF___
(example)WFO
This product is issued when conditions indicate that significantly heavy precipitation will cause or aggravate flooding. It is issued with a 36-hour or greater lead time. It includes:
• Area affected • Time frames • Discussion of hydrologic and meteorological factors and conditions • Information on projected watches and warnings
Excessive Rain Outlook
NMCGPH94E NCEP
This product is issued when conditions indicate that significantly heavy precipitation will cause or aggravate flooding. It is issued with a 36-hour or greater lead time. It includes:
• Area affected • Time frames • Discussion of hydrologic and meteorological factors and conditions • Information on projected watches and warning
Product Identifier Source Description
Flood Watch___FFA___
(example)WFO
This is used to inform cooperating agencies and the public about the threat of flooding. It covers precipitation, snow/ice melt, and dam break conditions. It Includes:
• Area affected • Time frames • Conditions • Extent of hazardous conditions possible • Potential severity • Call-to-action statement
Watches
Outlooks
Product Identifier Source Description
Flood Statement___FLS___
(example) WFO
This product is issued to update and expand the information in a Flood Warning (FLW, see below). The Flood Statement may be used in lieu of a warning if flooding is forecast, imminent, or existing and presents no threat to life or property. The statement is used also to terminate a Flood Warning.
River Statement ___RVS___ WFO
This product provides daily river stage forecasts and/or information about ice jams and ice movement that does not warrant a Flood Warning or a Flood Statement. It is used also to communicate conditions such as low flows, chemical spills, etc.
River Ice Statement ___RVI___ WFOThis product can contain numeric and/or narrative information on
river ice conditions.
Product Identifier Source Description
Flood Warning___FLW___
(example) WFO
This product normally specifies crest information and is issued for specific communities or areas along rivers where flooding has been forecast, is imminent, or is in progress.
Statements
Advisories/Warnings
Product Identifier Source Description
HydrometeorologicalDiscussion
___HMD___(example)
RFCs
This product summarizes the current hydrometeorological situation, general trends of the RFC's hydrologic forecasts, and flood potential for the entire RFC area. The types of conditions monitored include:
• Areas where Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) indicate significant potential for rainfall causing runoff
• Rivers that are already above flood stage • Areas where soil moisture is above normal due to recent excessive
rainfall • Areas covered by a significant snowpack that could readily melt in
changing meteorological conditions such as a rain-on-snow event or a heat wave
• Areas where frozen ground could generate dangerous runoff with moderate rainfall
• Areas where ice jam breakups could potentially produce backwater flooding or dam-break-like flood conditions
Discussions
Fatality Trends and Multi-Agency Education Programs
Nearly half of all flash flood fatalities are automobile related.
Water weighs 62.4 lbs. per cubic foot and typically flows downstream at 6 to 12 mph.
When a vehicle stalls in water, the water's momentum is transferred to the car. For each foot water rises, 500 lbs. of lateral force are applied to the car.
But the biggest factor is buoyancy. For each foot that water rises up the side of the car, the car displaces 1500 lbs. of water. In effect, the car weighs 1500 lbs. less for each foot water rises.
Two feet of water will carry away most automobiles.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/tadd/
Questions?Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D
Research Hydrometeorologist
NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research
National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Avenue
Norman, OK 73026
Office Phone (405) 366-0536
E-Mail: [email protected]