FLOOD VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATECHANGE IN BANGLADESH: A REVIEW

MD ABOUL FAZAL YOUNUS

School of Social Sciences, University of AdelaideAdelaide, South Australia 5005

andSchool of the Environment, Flinders University

Bedford Park, South Australia 5042md.younus@adelaide.edu.aumd.younus@flinders.edu.au

Received 1 December 2013Revised 6 March 2014Accepted 2 May 2014

Published 24 September 2014

This paper reviews recent literature on flood research in Bangladesh, focusing on thenation’s vulnerability to climate change and its ability to adapt. This review reveals that theliterature on community-based vulnerability and adaptation, and their processes andassessments in response to hazards under climate change regimes are inadequate, apartfrom a recent focus on assessment of the vulnerability of rural communities, their ability toadapt their farming methods, or the economic consequences of failure to adapt in responseto extreme flood events, e.g. Younus (2012a,b); Younus and Harvey (2013, 2014). Thispaper argues that an integrated assessment of rural vulnerability and community-basedadaptation is needed in order to ensure sustainable changes in response to future climatechange regimes in Bangladesh.

Keywords: Vulnerability; adaptation; flooding; climate change; Bangladesh.

Introduction

Floods are a major barrier to development in Bangladesh, and since 1954 gov-ernments have given great emphasis to addressing this problem. (Until 1971Bangladesh was known as East Pakistan). The country is vulnerable to several

Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and ManagementVol. 16, No. 3 (September 2014) 1450024 (28 pages)© Imperial College PressDOI: 10.1142/S1464333214500240

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forms of severe natural events, but the destructive effects of floods have long beenhighlighted as the main obstacle to the economic improvement of the nation.Currently, the Government of Bangladesh is most concerned with the threat ofmore frequent and severe floods due to climate change and sea-level rise, and as aconsequence millions of marginal farmers will be seriously affected. At the WorldClimate Conference 3 in Geneva in 2009 the Government urged the internationalcommunity to provide more technological and financial support for upholding thecommunity-based adaptation mechanisms in order to reduce flood vulnerability inBangladesh and in other countries facing similar threats.

Studies into flood hazards, and human adjustments to floods, emerged in the1940s with researchers such as White (1945) conducting some pioneering work.This was followed by the White-Burton-Kates School of Natural Hazards whichworked more closely on this issue. A participant in that School was Islam (1974,1980) who focused on agricultural adjustment to floods in Bangladesh — the firstresearcher to do so. Individuals and communities adjust to circumstances, andfarmers in Bangladesh have long had to adapt to severe natural events. This com-munity-based autonomous adaptation is a feature of life in Bangladesh but, to date,vulnerability and adaptation to climate change have been absent from flood-hazardresearch. Since 1980 a handful of projects by Islam (1980, 1990, 1995), Paul andRasid (1993), Paul (1995), and Chowdhury (1988) have investigated agriculturaladjustments and flood damage to rice crops in Bangladesh, but with the exception ofthe Flood Action Plan (FAP 19), government research initiatives in this regard havebeen negligible. The studies completed by independent individual researchers havenot been sufficiently comprehensive to understand the extent of damage (includinghousehold damage) due to extreme flood events (EFEs), and vulnerability andadaptation issues have never been adequately identified at the rural-communitylevel. Some independent water-resource researchers such as Miah (1988), Ahmadand Ahmed (2003, 2004), Ahmad and Rasheed (1998), Ahmad et al. (2001),Ahmad et al. (1994), Baqee (1997), Rasheed (2004, 2008), Ninno and Roy (1999),Ninno et al. (2001), and Warrick et al. (1996b) have focused on flood-hazardresearch and regional co-operation, but the vulnerability of riverine communitiesand the capacity to adjust to change still require much closer examination.

The Bangladesh government has recently focused on both structural and non-structural flood management methods in order to reduce vulnerability to flooding(Paul, 1995). The prudent approach is to have a combination of the two methods assuggested by Rasheed (2008). In addition to structural and non-structuralapproaches, it is important that the flood-warning system be upgraded and thatreal-time data be exchanged with other upper riparian countries to better addressthe flood management issue (Ahmad et al., 1994, 2001; Ahmad and Ahmed, 2003,

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2004). The FAP1 and a French engineering consortium (FEC), in association withthe Bangladesh Water Development Board, have studied various flood issues,particularly a project for flood-control drainage and flood-control drainage andirrigation. The FAP 19 dealt with GIS. Other FAP studies like 2–6, 11–16, 20 and23 all dealt, in one way or another, with community and agricultural adaptation tofloods. The FAP and FEC also conducted a feasibility flood-control survey, achar2-land study (the most comprehensive char-land study was made under FAP16), and a hydrological study, but a few exceptions that have focused on agri-cultural adjustment processes, i.e. how farmers adapt (especially crop planting)with flood characteristics: timing, frequency and duration (e.g. Younus, 2012b)and the impacts of floods when flood adaptation fails on rural households at thecommunity level (Younus and Harvey, 2014).

In the light of the growing urgency of this issue a number of questions arise: towhat extent will Bangladeshi farming systems be able to adjust to extreme floods?Is it important to understand adaptation issues for future community-based ad-aptation planning? In order to address these questions, this paper reviews past andcurrent literature on flooding in Bangladesh as well as literature on the vulnera-bility of rural farming communities and their capacity to adapt to climate change.

Review of Literature

Three aspects of previous work are reviewed (summarized in Table 1, cited inpage 4) in order to identify and understand the research gaps. These are: 1)agriculture, flooding, and the effects of climate change in Bangladesh; 2) flood-research trends in Bangladesh; and 3) climate change and flooding in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh: Agriculture, Flooding, and Climate Change

Bangladesh is particularly flood-prone, and during typical annual floods about 20–22% of the country is inundated between June and October, even in years of

1“The severe flood in 1987 and the catastrophic one in 1988, revived concerns among the Gov-ernment policy makers and major aid donors to seek measures for lasting solutions to the country’srecurrent flood problems. As a result the flood action plan (FAP) was formulated by the InternationalDonor Agencies in collaboration with the Bangladesh Government. The World Bank reviewed thefindings from various studies and finalized a FAP in November 1989, comprising 26 components asan initial stage (1990–1995) in the development of a long term comprehensive system of floodcontrol and drainage works in Bangladesh”.2Made a note (2), states: Char land areas which are sand bars formed within a river or estuary. It is aremote and isolated area from mainland, and it has no utility services such as electricity, gas andwater.

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Table 1. Flood research themes in Bangladesh (1980–2014).

Issues or Findings Based on Agriculture, Flooding, and the Effects of ClimateChange in Bangladesh

Author and Yearof Publication

Adjustments to floods evolved over the ages. Agricultural practices, especiallycropping patterns, have been adapted to the characteristics of flooding.

Islam (1980)

Rice yields in high flood years were often higher than in low flood years asheavy rainfall and proper utilization of yield raised inputs such as fertilizerand HYV seeds, which increased production in flood free zones.

Montgomery(1985)

Fluctuations from estimated trends in food grain production at regional andnational levels explain the production instability caused by natural hazards.

Hossain (1990)

The relationship between cropping practices and flooding accounts for much ofthe complex land use pattern that has evolved.

Islam (1990)

Some improvements to earlier appraisal and evaluation methods for flood-control agricultural projects.

Thompson (1990)

UNDP-funded flood policy study recommended GBM rivers should beembanked to provide controlled flooding in adjoining floodplain areas.

Brammer (1990b)

The average loss of rice production resulting from flooding was approximately4 percent of the total country-wide rice production figure.

Paul and Rasid(1993)

‘Rivers replenish, but they also re-sew the patchwork of paddies, villages, androads — farmers must adapt’.

Cobb (1993)

Irrespective of significant spatial variations in preferences for specific ranges offlood levels, survey respondents preferred regulated levels that coincidedwith the overall range of the normal flood regimes to which rice crops wereadjusted.

Rasid and Mallik(1995)

Farmers’ level of awareness, responses to and possible positive and negativeimpacts of the proposed embankment projects.

Paul (1995)

Aman crop damage due to 1998 floods. Islam (1999)The impact of floods on food security and labour markets in rural areas. Ninno and Roy

(1999)An analysis of the impact of 1998 floods and focused on comprehensive food

security.Dorosh et al.

(2004)Severe flooding may cause decline of agricultural production in disaster

months, and open-access irrigational input leads to significant increases inpost-flood productivity. New risks emerged, with unexpected changes indisaster archetypes and livelihood patterns of stakeholders.

Banerjee (2010)

A warmer and wetter future climate is projected Bangladeshi agriculture; andresulting decline in national crop production and severe economic impact.

Yu (2010)

Issues or Findings Based on Flood-research Trends in BangladeshAuthor and Yearof Publication

“Lack of entitlements to food due to loss of employment …. not the foodshortage”, was the main cause of famine after the devastating 1974 flood.

Sen (1981)

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Table 1. (Continued )

Issues or Findings Based on Flood-research Trends in BangladeshAuthor and Yearof Publication

Post-flood impact on agricultural lands and adjustment processes showed thatnormal floods are beneficial not harmful.

Paul (1984)

The poor are more vulnerable to damage from floods. HIDD/ESCAP(1988)

Characteristics of human adjustment strategies to cope with riverbank erosionamong inhabitants of the Jamuna floodplain.

Haque (1988)

Human adjustments to riverbank erosion hazards in the Brahmaputra-Jamunafloodplain.

Zaman (1989)

The geographical background of 1987 and 1988 floods; the 1987 flood waspredominantly a rainwater flood.

Brammer (1990a)

The impacts and severity of the 1987 and 1988 floods on the rural livelihood oftwo flood-prone villages.

Khan (1991)

Four aspects of flooding: disaster context, risk assessment, disaster manage-ment and international assistance.

Brammer andKhan (1991)

Floods in Bangladesh benefit agricultural lands, and the floodwaters usuallyrenew the soil.

Pearce (1991)

Population displacement due to river bank erosion Zaman and Wiest(1991)

Methods and results of visual interpretation of satellite imagery for estimatingareal extent of the 1988 flood.

Rashid and Pra-manik (1993)

A holistic approach — unlike the “structural” strategy — to human aspects ofwater resource management.

Haque (1993)

Recent floods in Bangladesh and their possible causes and solutions. Khalequzzaman(1994)

Embankment failure is a serious hazard; evidence is lacking that flood pro-tection has stabilized the economic condition of households.

Thompson andSultana (1996)

Overall flood research in Bangladesh. Paul (1997)Rapid economic appraisal which carried out a national estimate of flood loss to

the economy.Chowdhury et al.

(1999)The open approach to flood control as the way to the future. Islam (2001)How natural disasters affect financial systems and how the financial institu-

tions, both public and private, cope.Bension and Clay

(2004)The 1998 flood reduced both consumption and assets. Khandker (2007)The nature and causes of the sudden 2004 flood. Ali (2007)Following the instigation and collapse of the Flood Action Plan, holistic or

interdisciplinary knowledge management was needed (between natural andsocial science communities); there is isolation between the government andsciences.

Cook and Lane(2010)

Within the past 20 years the size of typical Bangladesh farms affected byextreme floods has been reduced by more than half.

Younus (2012a)

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Table 1. (Continued )

Issues or Findings Based on Flood-research Trends in BangladeshAuthor and Yearof Publication

How farmers adapt with flood characteristics: timing, frequency and duration. Younus (2012b)A methodological contribution for assessment of vulnerability and adaptation. Younus (2013)The economic consequences of failure effects of autonomous crop adaptation

on marginal farmers are large.Younus (2014)

Issues or Findings Based on Climate Change and Flooding in BangladeshAuthor and Yearof Publication

Potential rise in rainfall in future is expected to increase surface run off causingsevere flooding in the country.

Asaduzzaman(1994)

Flood damage adjustment research should receive more focus at the Govern-ment level.

Mirza et al.(2001)

Effective regional cooperation towards managing floods in Bangladesh. Ahmad andAhmed (2003)

Temperature change and sea-level rise are unlikely to affect farmers’ lives andlivelihoods significantly during the next 20 years but climate change needsto be seen and addressed in the perspective of overall development needs.

Brammer (2009)

Severe floods are caused mainly by heavy rainfall within Bangladesh as well asthe increased flood and cyclone risks associated with global warming.Alternative measures, such as flood-proofing’ urban and rural settlements,development of improved crop varieties and more efficient use of irrigationand fertilizers, need to be implemented in order to provide security for lives,livelihoods and economic production.

Brammer (2010)

Integrated and interdisciplinary approaches are most likely to overcome floodvulnerability; researchers, experts and managers would learn from pastefforts to inform future solutions, and there is little doubt their collaborationwould play a critical role in future flood management.

Cook and Wisner(2010)

The majority of cyclone victims did not participate in evacuation initiativesthough significant changes have been occurred in cyclone preparednessfollowing the 1991 cyclone Gorky; 3000 additional cyclone shelters withall public amenities should be built for coastal residents.

Paul et al. (2010)

Local planning for floods revealed a gap in the activities of communityinstitutions but the enhanced social capital could be a basis for adaptation toclimate change; community resource management institutions could de-velop a more integrated approach that internalizes the interactions betweenwater and resources.

Sultana andThompson(2010)

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normal rainfall (Rasheed, 2008). However, as a consequence of climate changeBangladesh faces more frequent EFEs (IPCC, 2007, 2012; Mirza et al., 2003). Thefloods of 1988 and 1998 were especially severe, inundating 61 percent and 68percent of the land respectively (Rasheed, 2008). Not only were those floods morewidespread but they were of much longer duration. For example, the 1998 floodcontinued for over 90 days (Younus, 2010). Ahmad et al. (1994a) have predictedthat by the year 2030 Bangladesh will be 0.5–2○C warmer if emissions continue atthe present rate (IPCC, 1990). Moreover, climate models indicate that averagemonsoon rainfalls are likely to rise by 10–15% by 2030, although the authors citedabove emphasized that there is uncertainty in these predictions regarding magni-tude, rates, and regional patterns (Ahmad et al., 1994b).

The Bangladesh economy is mostly rural, though its contribution to total GDPis steadily decreasing. In 1994, 35% of GDP was derived from agriculture but by2007 agriculture, including its sub-sectors (livestock, fisheries and forestry) madeup only 21.8% of GDP (GOB, 2007). Agriculture uses two-thirds of available landand employs about 75% of the workforce, and in 1996 it comprised about 80% ofthe nation’s export earnings (BBS, 1996). Within the rural sector, crops accountfor about three-quarters of the total production. Moreover, non-modernized agro-based industries are dependent on the agricultural sector for raw materials.

In a research report on the 1998 floods Ninno et al. (2001) examined how foodsecurity in Bangladesh was maintained following the “flood of the century”, andthey suggested measures that might be applicable to other developing countriesfacing similar natural disasters. Crop yields in Bangladesh are amongst the lowestin the world, although the soil in the river basin is quite fertile (Brammer, 1996;Ahmad et al., 1994a). This is because of the dependence on traditional methods ofwhich the main technique is autonomous crop cultivation. There is no large-scalecommercial farming in Bangladesh, all farming systems being based on subsis-tence methods in small land-holdings. One of the major problems the country facesis its large population (population was 154.7 million in 2012 in accordance withWorld Bank: http://data.worldbank.org/), expected to be above 180 million by2025) with a high growth-rate (1.579% in 2012, 2.08 in 2004); the country’spopulation rose by 54 million between 1974 and 2001. The population density isvery high (1,237.51 persons per square kilometer in 2012) (the CIA World FactBook, 2012; Rasheed, 2008). Methods of cultivation and yearly flood hazards arefactors which have a negative influence on food availability. Crop production andthe resultant availability of food depend entirely on environmental factors —particularly flooding and its nature, frequency, and severity. Farmers make theirdecisions based on traditional predictive factors related to flooding characteristics(Younus, 2012b). If their decisions are in accord with natural phenomena (that is,

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if the predictions for the timing, extent, and duration of flooding prove to becorrect) then there is usually sufficient production for their needs. This is a cyclicaland continuous process in the agricultural system of Bangladesh.

Though farmers farming decisions are mostly based on traditional floodingcharacteristics and the crop productions of flood basins were entirely dependent onenvironmental factors up to the 1950s, but the development of dry-season irri-gation (first by LLPs; then by STWs from the late–1980s) and flood protectionmeasures (e.g. the coastal embankment project) had tremendous influence on cropproduction since 1960s. Rice production in the dry season now exceeds productionin the monsoon season. Also Bangladeshi farmers are highly sensitive to marketprices, demand and supply.

However, in addition to concerns about the effects of population growth there isuncertainty about the effects on crop production of climate-induced extremeflooding. In times of severe flooding Bangladesh faces shortages of food grains.For example, in 2005–2006, 2,562,000 metric tons of rice and wheat wereimported, though net total food-grain production in 2005–2006 was 24,569,000metric tons (BBS, 2007). The country’s yearly rice production increased from9,774,000 metric tons during the 1971–1972 to about 26,530,000 metric tons in2005–2006 (BBS, 2007), but failed to meet the demands of the ever-growingpopulation, which combined with other socio-economic and environmental factorsincreased the demand for food, causing an on-going food deficit. In 2020 projectedpopulation is 166.90 million, projected net total food grain production is 30,947thousand metric tons, and projected food grain requirements are then 27,632.14thousand metric tons (BBS, 2007/2012). Food shortages are already prevalent inthe rural areas, particularly in the char lands, which are isolated from the mainlandand are without any utilities. Most low-lying areas may remain under water forthree to four months during the annual floods. Arable land, particularly fertilefloodplain land, is limited; the population/land ratio is already very high, and theoverall and seasonal rates of unemployment in rural districts are very high (Bose,1974; Mahbub, 1986). The increasing food-grain deficit has created a crisis situ-ation in the agricultural sector, and improved land-use management should be amajor focus of government plans to minimize hunger and reduce food shortages.

Almost 74% of the country is cultivated, and a significant proportion of theagricultural output comes from the fertile basin of the Ganges, Brahmaputra andMeghna (GBM) rivers (Brammer and Khan, 1991). The agricultural sector isattuned to seasonal rhythms and is dominated by wet and dry monsoons. Becauseof its geographical position at the confluence of these three large rivers, andcomprising mainly flat delta land, Bangladesh experiences flooding every year. Asnoted previously, cultivation of rice is attuned to normal flooding which affects

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about 20% of the land area each year. However, Bangladesh is prone to naturalcalamities; in particular, high and more extensive flooding. In 1988, 57–60% ofthe country was flooded (Rashid and Pramanik, 1993; Ives, 1991). Normally,monsoonal floods cover about 20% of the territory every alternate year and 37% ofthe territory one year out of every ten (Parker, 1992). Other destructive floods oflesser magnitude occur quite frequently.

All these issues point to the Bangladeshi agricultural sector being mainly a“deficit sector”, with its production inextricably related to flooding. Farmers’adjustment mechanisms and their cropping decision behaviour in response toprevailing flooding characteristics are important determinants of the risk to agri-culture in the future.

Ali (1999) has discussed vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in thecontext of Bangladesh, with special focus on tropical-cyclone frequency and in-tensity, storm surges, coastal erosion, and backwater effects. He suggested thefollowing adaptation options in order to survive the climate change challenges:retreat, accommodation and protection. Mirza et al. (2003) examined the impli-cations of climate change on floods in the GBM rivers. They predicted the likelychange in magnitude, extent, and depth of floods of these rivers by using empiricalmodels and the MIKE11-GIS hydrodynamic model. To construct climate-changescenarios they used four models; CSIRO9, UKTR, GFDL, and LLNL, reachingthe conclusion that peak discharge from all three rivers will rise, causing floodingthat is both deeper and wider. They predicted that a mean temperature rise of 6○Cwill lead to an increase in the mean flooded area of 20–40%, and about 55% of theflooded landscape will be under deeper water. More people, houses and infra-structure are likely to be affected by floods as an increased number of people willbe living on the floodplains. All these changes will ultimately cause a significantfall in rice production, though Mirza’s paper did not focus on overall crop damageor the distribution pattern of average household crop damage. Nor has it explainedthe vulnerability and adaptation assessments in response to EFEs, or the failureeffects of autonomous crop adaptation including losses incurred to households interms of infrastructure and damage to plants.

Yu et al. (2010) have given a more thorough and recent review of potentialclimate change impacts and risk of food security in Bangladesh. In this book, usingthe GCM3s, a trend towards a warmer and wetter future climate is projected onBangladesh agricultural sector. They have demonstrated that there will be

3A general circulation model (GCM), a specific type of climate model, is a mathematical model ofthe general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean. GCMs depict the climate using a threedimensional grid over the globe; this model projects local, regional and global climate.

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increased flow in the three major rivers (GBM basin) of up to 20%, resulting indeclining national crop production with a pronounced detrimental economicimpact.

Research into the effects of flooding in Bangladesh

There are no adequate or detailed studies into the agricultural adjustments that areimplemented by farmers in response to EFEs in Bangladesh, although Brammer’s(1990a,b, 1994, 1995), Paul’s (1984, 1995) and Islam’s (1980, 1995) literature onagricultural adjustments to flooding have focused on environmental perceptionsassociated with changes to farming practices. Moreover, there are large gaps in theliterature regarding household flood-damage and associated data about cropdamage. Some studies (Paul and Rasid, 1993; Brouwer et al., 2008, 2007) men-tioned crop damage data, though these are mostly arbitrary and have not beensystematically collected. With few exceptions, flood research has been limitedmainly to appraisals or evaluation studies in the form of reports which focus onagricultural loss. The consequences of marginal farmers failing to adapt theirmethods to changing flood conditions are likely to be very severe, but this matterhas not been studied or reported in the literature on floods and agriculture inBangladesh.

Islam (1980) presented a preliminary appraisal of agricultural adjustment tofloods in three villages in Bangladesh. Agricultural adjustments evolved over theages. Agricultural practices, particularly the cropping patterns, have adapted to thecharacteristics of flooding in general. In his book Poverty and Famine — an Essayon Entitlements and Deprivation, Sen (1981) stated that “… lack of entitlements tofood are due to loss of employment associated with lack of purchasing power, notthe food shortage” and was the main cause of famine which followed the devas-tating 1974 flood (Islam, 2005). It can be argued that the loss of employment andlack of purchasing power were indirect effects caused partly by the devastatingflood in that year. Paul (1984) also studied the post-flood impact on agriculture andadjustment processes and he concluded that normal floods are not harmful; ratherthey are beneficial to agricultural lands. He pointed out that in the case of abnormalfloods respondents usually apply several adjustment techniques to reduce damage,though when farmers fail to modify their methods they subsequently experiencemore severe losses. Montgomery (1985) examined crop losses due to floods byanalyzing deviations from trends, and Murshid (1987) took a slightly differentapproach by studying the relative roles of weather hazards and technology inaffecting the instability of food grain output, concluding that weather-relatedfactors were the main determinants of agricultural output in Bangladesh.

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The HIDD/ESCAP survey of 1988 assessed the distributional impact of flooddamage; it found that the poor were more vulnerable to floods, being 2.5 timesmore likely to experience severe distress than did wealthier groups. Ruralhouseholds were the subject of an enquiry by Haque (1988); surveying 547 ran-domly-selected families in the Jamuna floodplain, he examined how people ad-justed to the ever-present problem of river-bank erosion. He concluded that thestrategies taken at the community level were preventative while at the individuallevel they were more corrective. Also focusing on farmers’ responses to river-bankerosion, Zaman (1989) investigated erosion hazards in the Brahmaputra-Jamunafloodplain. His paper suggested that a unified approach integrating perceptual andbehavioral variables with socio-political and structural factors is essential to aholistic understanding of the problem of adjustment.

Work by Islam (1990) found that the relationship between cropping practicesand flooding of land account for the complex land-use pattern that has evolved inBangladesh. The agricultural decision-making process is particularly complicatedbecause of differences in soils, flood incidence, and cultural practices. He em-phasized that further study of relationships between hydrological events andhuman land-use systems in the floodplain areas is necessary as a means of im-proving the effectiveness of development and protection programs. Existingappraisal and evaluation methods were reviewed by Thompson (1990) whorecommended some improvements to these methods, particularly in relation toflood-control agricultural projects. The study also recommended that standarddatabases be developed for improvement of project appraisals and to better un-derstand the benefits and limitations of flood mitigation choices.

Reviewing the geographical background to the 1987 and 1988 floods, Brammer(1990a) pointed out that the former was predominantly a rainwater flood caused byexceptionally heavy monsoonal rainfall over the northern part of the country,whereas the 1988 flood was a river flood caused by heavy monsoonal rainfall overa wider area of the GBM catchment. In both years, breaching or cuttingembankments aggravated flooding. Following on from this was another report byBrammer (1990b) who discussed a UNDP-funded flood policy study which hadrecommended that the GBM rivers should be embanked to control flooding inadjoining floodplain areas. As alternatives to embankments, the USAID-fundedteam included upstream water storage in the Himalayas, basin storage on thefloodplains, and draw-down of ground water beneath flood plains so as to absorbexcess monsoon rainfall and run off. Brammer argued that there was no evidencethat environmental degradation in the Himalayas or a greenhouse induced rise insea-level aggravated floods in Bangladesh.

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Surveying the livelihoods of rural workers, Khan (1991) reported on theimpacts and severity of the 1987 and 1988 floods on the residents of two flood-prone villages, Jawar village and South Chamuria village, both situated within thecentral region of Bangladesh. He found that in 1988, 71.43% of households inJawar experienced 76–100% of damage to aman rice. Similarly, in South Cha-muria village 82.02% of households experienced 76–100% aman crop damage.Also looking at grain production, Hossain (1990) analyzed fluctuations at theregional and national levels to explain the production instability caused by naturalhazards. A country-wide study was undertaken by Brammer and Khan (1991) whohighlighted four key elements: disaster context, risk assessment, disaster man-agement, and international assistance. In the vulnerability-analysis section of theirreport they estimated that direct losses due to the 1988 flood were about $1300million. However, this was only an estimate and their report failed to considervulnerability issues, instead providing only a general description of flooding andhazards.

Pearce (1991) contended that flooding in Bangladesh is beneficial for agricul-tural land because it replenishes the soil. As a consequence, during the 1980s, cropyields rose fastest on areas most prone to flooding. He also emphasized that bothstructural and non-structural measures are needed in order to prevent losses fromfloods.

Population displacement due to river bank erosion was investigated by Zamanand Wiest (1991) who emphasized that the char-land resettlement plan is acomplex task, and due to the changing nature of the riverine system it is a con-tinuous process. They argued that public policies should be developed both forshort-term and long-term assistance of the displaced. The local Upazila Relief andRehabilitation Office in the erosion-prone areas should be better equipped toprovide the necessary services, skills, and logistics to cope with dislocation. Theyalso emphasized that it is necessary to develop comprehensive char-land policiesfor Bangladesh. Rogge and Elahi (1990) who first lead a river bank erosion studyin Bangladesh, focused on the socio-cultural dimensions of riverbank erosion; theyargued that representations of flood have such great iconographic power that it isunlikely that riverbank erosion will ever attain a comparable level of salience andattention in development circles, despite its massive human impact (Indra, 2000).

FAP (Flood Action Plan) 16 and FAP 19 (1995) investigated the char-landstudy series which cover the understanding of the dynamic physical and socio-economic environment of char-lands in six major locations in all major rivers ofBangladesh. The main aim of the char-land study series was to identify potentialflood proofing measures for different areas. The char-land study (comprisingthirteen reports) had a major objective: to assist a necessary policy formulation

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regarding overall development of resources and char-land people in Bangladesh.Three major areas were: 1. Streamlining land ownership laws and records: due tofrequent erosion and accretion, the ownership of char-lands is often controversialand most of the lands are grabbed and controlled by local elites (matbar) and theirmuscle men. Hence, the correct land records need to be established. 2. Providingbasic services such as health, education, communication, agricultural — theseneed to be ensured by the local government agencies and NGOs. 3. Providingassistance in mitigating the impact of flood and erosion. Steps that need to beimplemented are: a. improved flood warning, b. flood proofing measures forhomesteads, and c. ensuring shelter. Another on-going study (Char LivelihoodProject (CLP) funded by the DFID (UK)) identified that chars in Bangladesh arelocated in a very remote area on river beds and these lands are highly prone toflooding during the monsoon season and susceptible to erosion (DFID, 2009–2016). These char islands have a limited lifespan of 10 to 30 years. This studyemphasized that given the unpredictability of climate change impacts the highestpriority is to improve the resilience of these poor char islanders.

Looking at the nation-wide effects of the annual floods Paul and Rasid (1993)found that the average loss of rice production was approximately four percent ofthe total crop. Consequently, they calculated that the magnitude of loss of agri-cultural production did not (at that time) justify some of the proposed flood controlmeasures. They also suggested that district-level patterns of crop damage mayprovide guidelines for planning infrastructural facilities for flood control.

A sustainable floodplain development plan for Bangladesh was proposed byHaque (1993). The paper concerned two broad areas of public policy regardingflood problems; namely, a holistic approach — unlike the “structural” strategy —

to the human aspects of water-resource management, and a sustainable floodplaindevelopment plan that would ensure benefits to its users. In his view, the pre-vailing emphasis of the Bangladesh flood policies had changed from flood pre-vention to flood adaptation. He argued that flood issues must address bothsustainability and long-term development.

Rashid and Pramanik (1993) used visual interpretations of satellite imagery toestimate the extent of the 1988 flood. The images showed that the 1988 floodinundated 31–42% of the land, figures lower than the government’s official claim of57%. An alternative method of mapping flood-affected areas by using newspaper-interpreted data was attempted, but the authors said the method has limited valuebecause of reporting bias. Taking an historical perspective, Cobb (1993, p. 125) drewa general picture of past floods and cyclones and how the villagers of Nishantapuradapted to these annual events. He concluded that, “Rivers replenish, but they alsore-sew the patchwork of paddies, villages, and roads — farmers must adapt”.

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Topographical and geo-political issues were explored by Khalequzzaman(1994) who discussed the causes and effects of floods in the early 1990s. Hehighlighted changes in the base level of rivers due to local sea-level rise andsubsidence as possible contributors to recent floods. He also drew attention toinadequate sediment accumulation on flood plains, a possible increase in thewatershed area due to seismic and geotectonic activities in the region, river bedaggradation due to siltation and damming of rivers, soil erosion due to unwisetilling practices, deforestation in the upstream region, and excessive developmentand population growth. He concluded that without regional cooperation among theco-riparian nations, any major inter-basin flood control measures would be almostimpossible. This work was followed by a report from Asaduzzaman (1994) whofound that a potential rise in rainfall would increase surface run-off causing severeflooding in the future. He concluded that sea-level rise would be less thanexpected, although he estimated that about 11 percent of the country and fivepercent of the present population would be under threat of inundation and loss ofland if a 45 cm sea-level rise were to occur by the year 2070.

Several surveys of farming communities were undertaken in the mid-1990s.Paul (1995) reported a study of farmers’ level of awareness regarding likelychanges in weather and flooding patterns. He also explored farmers’ responses tothe impacts of proposed embankment projects as outlined by FAP. The datacollected from two rural areas showed that the respondents overwhelminglysupported the embankment projects of the FAP and that they were also aware ofboth the positive and negative impacts of new embankment construction. Com-munity attitudes and practices were likewise examined by Rasid and Mallik (1995)who surveyed 23 villages in five major floodplain districts. They found thatirrespective of significant spatial variations in preferences for specific ranges offlood levels, most respondents preferred regulated levels that coincided with theoverall range of the normal flood regimes to which different varieties of monsoonseason rice crops were adjusted.

Several researchers reported studies into changing land-use and the economicsecurity of the people. Thompson and Sultana (1996) found little evidence thatflood protection measures had stabilized the economic condition of households.Indeed, describing regional flood-mitigation projects during the high flood of1988, they stated that four out of five such projects which recorded losses werehigher inside the project areas than in the unprotected control areas. He also notedthat embankment failure continued to be a serious hazard, although embankmentsalso acted as refuges in peak floods. In a similar vein was work by Baqee (1997)who studied the ability of char-land people to cope with floods and erosion in thechar lands in Bangladesh. Using two case study samples, Char Wari and Char

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Hatighata, he recommended some simple changes in infrastructure (low costcolumns/plastic poles to replace bamboo poles) that would alleviate the severity offlood damage.

An overview of contemporary flood research was undertaken by Paul (1997)who noted that research into the impact of flooding on human settlement and otherrelevant aspects is much less developed in Bangladesh than the body of literaturefocusing on human adjustment to flood hazard. This was followed by a 1999investigation by Ninno and Roy who assessed the impact of floods on food se-curity and labour markets in rural areas. Their study concluded that as a result offlooding, economic activity slowed down but did not come to a complete halt. Itdrew the conclusion that the impact of floods is most severe on those who dependon agricultural activities for a living; at the same time floods reduce access byhouseholds to food. This conclusion was endorsed by Islam (1999) who carriedout an appraisal of aman crop damage due to the 1998 floods, finding that it hadwidened the food gap from two million metric tons to over four million metrictons. A similar result was reported by Chowdhury et al. (1999) who carried out anational estimate of flood loss to the economy. These and other writers allhighlighted the importance of coordinated action that can only be provided bygovernments. For instance, Mirza et al. (2001) recommended six policy levels forgovernment agencies of the GBM basin countries, and they suggested that flood-damage adjustment research should receive stronger support at the governmentlevel.

Flood-control measures were the subject of studies in the early 2000s. Islam(2001) showed that the “open” approach to flood control is superior to the “cor-don” approach which involves building embankments and roads. He criticized thecordon approach which has been pursued, to little benefit, in Bangladesh forseveral decades. The main components of the open approach are: re-excavation ofriver beds and other surface water bodies, minimization of obstruction on flood-plains, increasing the elevation of rural and urban dwellings, restoration ofwaterways, and promotion of rural settlement consolidation around permanentflood shelters. This was followed by Ahmad and Ahmed (2003) who found thatthe loss of lives and assets could be significantly minimized by implementing non-structural measures including the improvement of flood forecasting and warningsystems. The existing flood-forecasting capacity of Bangladesh could be moreeffective if real time data could be acquired from upstream areas within the GBMcatchment where runoff is generated. Like so many other writers, they emphasizedthe importance of effective regional cooperation.

Taking a comparative international perspective, Bension and Clay (2004)documented case studies of Bangladesh, Dominica and Malawi, and assessed how

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natural disasters affect the financial system and how financial institutions, bothpublic and private, cope with that. While these countries differed on points ofdetail, nevertheless there was a common theme regarding the central roles ofgovernments and financial organizations and the adaptive behavior of the peopleaffected by disasters.

In 2004 Dorosh et al. analyzed the impact of the 1998 floods and focused oncomprehensive food security in Bangladesh, this work being followed by Younuset al. (2005) who described autonomous adjustment to major flooding in Ban-gladesh. The latter writers investigated three kinds of adjustment — routine,tactical and in-built — in the context of normal floods as well as the devastatingflood in 1998. Younus et al. (2007) and Younus (2007a) observed that by the useof autonomous adjustments Bangladeshi farmers, when faced with floods, are veryresilient, and they can cope with a wide range of flood events. However the multi-peak 1998 flood exceeded the capacity for these adjustments during the peakseason for growing and harvesting wet rice.

A sudden flood that occurred in 2004 was the subject of a project by Ali (2007).The nature and causes of that flood were examined, in particular the way it affectedthe moribund delta lands in the dry and drought-prone south-western region ofBangladesh. He interviewed 453 flood victim families and found that thisflood caused severe damage to standing crops, fish ponds, permanent trees, andhomesteads, and it led to a marked deterioration of human health and sanitationconditions.

Climate change and flooding in Bangladesh

There has been much interest in climate-change research over the last 16 years orso. Numerous studies state that global warming will significantly affect climate atregional levels, such as South Asia, including Bangladesh (IPCC, 2012/2014; Yuet al., 2010; Lal et al., 2000; Warrick et al., 1996a,b; Ahmad et al., 1996; Lal andAggarwal, 2000; Ahmed and Alam, 1999). A change in rainfall pattern during themonsoon in Bangladesh would have significant impacts on flooding, resulting inincreased vulnerability of agricultural land, a situation which will add to theincreasing concern over food security (Yu et al., 2010). The South Asian croppingcalendar is determined by the monsoon because this brings the much-needed rainwhich is essential for rice production, particularly for high-yielding varieties ofrice. The IPCC (2012, 2007) noted that the GBM River Basin would be at risk dueto increased flooding in the future and crop production could decrease up to 30%in South Asia.

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With regard to the monsoon they stated that, “The monsoons of Tropical Asiacould become more variable if ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) events be-come stronger and more frequent in a warmer atmosphere” (Lal et al., 2000, p. 3).Further to this, Warrick et al. (1996b, p. 67) said that although there is evidence tosuggest that monsoon rainfall is weakly associated with the ENSO phenomenon,“the specific relationships between ENSO and Bangladesh’s climate have not yetbeen thoroughly investigated, so the question remains open”.

Climate change will alter the traditional pattern of annual floods according toDouglas (2009), who concluded that food production will be disrupted by floodingwhich is likely to become more severe and more frequent. He forecasts that thesituation will be much worse by 2080. He described four possible change sce-narios; these changes will dramatically modify land-use patterns in the majordeltas of the subcontinent. All these changes are likely to make many peoplehighly vulnerable to starvation or malnutrition.

Lal et al. observed that: “The intensity of extreme rainfall events is projected tobe higher in warmer atmosphere suggesting thereby a decrease in return period forthe extreme precipitation events and the possibility of more frequent flash floods inparts of India, Nepal and Bangladesh” (Lal et al., 2000, p. 14). Mirza et al. (2003,p. 315) similarly indicated that future peak discharges from the GBM rivers underclimate change would be increased, and as a consequence Bangladesh would facemore serious flooding in the future.

Discussion

Recent studies on climate change suggest that it will affect the frequency andmagnitude of flooding (Lal, 1994; Lal and Aggarwal, 2000; Mirza, 2002; Mirza etal., 2003; Yu et al., 2010); and the adaptation capacity would be reduced with thefrequent adverse climatic hazards in this region (Huq et al., 2003; Stern, 2006;Younus, 2012b). Thus, climate change is expected to significantly influence theautonomous coping capacity of Bangladeshi farming systems.

Agricultural land-use in Bangladesh is inextricably linked to two factors: bio-physical factors, and farmers’ behaviour. Therefore, while addressing future vul-nerability and adaptation issues using autonomous adjustment strategies, floods andland use patterns are considered inseparable. Land use depends on flood char-acteristics in two ways: 1) bio-physically — the duration, extent, frequency, anddepth of flooding, and the nature of precipitation influence the opportunities andlimitations for crop types and cropping patterns in the season of kharif 2 and thetransition period between kharif 2 and rabi (see glossary); 2) behaviourally —

the ultimate decisions about land use are influenced by farmers’ perceptions

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of micro-environment and environmental changes. Other factors also affect thisdecision-making, and they include market demand, prices, and individualcompetition.

However, adaptation has been the key to expansion of rice production in pacewith population growth. In addition to farmers’ responses, agricultural researchinstitutes have made contributions of new crop varieties tolerant of problematicmicro environments (e.g. flood, salt, drought, and arsenic tolerant or early ma-turing) (Brammer, 2010). Research is on-going to breed high-yielding rice vari-eties. Early maturing boro varieties are being developed to reduce loss by earlyfloods; and aman varieties which can tolerate flood water up to 14 days during thepeak period of flooding (Brammer, 2010). Nevertheless, the evidence in 1988 and1998 flooding suggest that during the multi-peak and longer duration floods,farmers were unable to continue farming high yielding or local varieties (shortermaturation) of aman (Younus, 2012b).

The climate-change literature on autonomous adaptation and on vulnerabilityand adaptation assessment guidelines provides little guidance on these bio-phys-ical and behavioural matters in terms of assessing the failure effects of autonomouscrop adaptation in Bangladesh.

To summarize the above discussion, some major issues can be identified:

. the Bangladeshi agricultural sector will be at risk in future if the present rate ofrapid population growth is not contained and if autonomous cropping adjust-ments fail to fully regulate the potential of agricultural land use and the level ofvulnerability;

. the failure effects of autonomous adjustments would be profound;

. Flooding characteristics also act as a regulatory force for cropping adjustments.

From the findings of the above literature and discussions it is clear that there arethe following research gaps:

. comprehensive research regarding Bangladeshi floods or flood research trends islacking;

. there is inadequate substantial literature relating to adaptation and developmentin response to flooding in Bangladesh;

. there is only limited literature relating to farmers’ autonomous croppingadjustments to flooding over time;

. attempts to assess vulnerability and adaptations in response to EFEs wherefarmers’ opinions have been prioritized and weighted are few;

. there have not been adequate significant in-depth case studies of ‘community-based assessment and adaptation’;

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. insufficient literature provides case study support for the methodological con-tribution for assessing vulnerability and adaptation;

. the concept of the failure effects of autonomous crop adaptation and its as-sessment requires further study;

. inadequate research has been conducted to assess the economic consequences ofthe failure effects of autonomous adaptation in response to EFEs in Bangladesh.

Work by Younus (2010, 2012a,b, 2013, 2014) filled some of these research gaps byanalyzing three major issues. First, it examined farmers’ crop adaptation processesin a case study area at Islampur, Bangladesh, in response to different types of EFEs(multi-peak with longer duration flood, single-peak with shorter duration flood, andsingle-peak at the period of harvesting), and has described how farmers have beenadapting to extreme floods over time. Second, it assessed vulnerability and adap-tation in response to three EFEs in 1998, 1995 and 1988. Vulnerability and adap-tations are categorized on the basis of a weightedmatrix index. This study used PRAmethodology and made an important methodological contribution for assessingvulnerability and adaptation. Third, this project assessed the economic con-sequences when farmers fail to adapt their methods in response to EFEs. The resultsshowed that Bangladeshi farmers are highly resilient to EFEs, but there are profoundeconomic consequences when marginal farmers fail to adapt. These failure effectsare defined as total crop loss against potential production, plus total agricultural costmultiplied by the number of flood events in the studied area. Total agricultural costincludes cost of seedlings, fertilizer, pesticides, land preparation, human labour, andwatering. Younus (2010; 2014) estimated that the crop-related loss plus plants andhouses damaged due to the extreme flood of 1998 was US$14001.26 million.Younus’s work contributed to current knowledge by filling three important researchgaps as follows: 1) farmers’ autonomous crop adaptation processes in response tovarious types of EFEs; 2) a methodological contribution for assessing vulnerabilityand adaptation through PRA; and 3) the economic consequences of the failureeffects of autonomous crop adaptations. The findings of his study can act as a guideto policy decisions for effective allocation of adaptation funds at the communitylevel in Bangladesh. The work concluded that urgent action is needed to improve thesustainable crop adaptation capacity at the community level in the foreseeable futureto cope with extreme floods under a regime of climate change.

Conclusions and Future Research Directions

Some important issues have been reviewed above: flood-research trends inBangladesh since 1980; the vulnerability of rural communities and the adaptations

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adopted by farmers in response to extreme natural hazards. A review of relevantliterature suggests that with the exception of Younus (2010), none of the studieshas dealt with community-based autonomous adaptation processes, and neitherhave there been other investigations into vulnerability and adaptation assessmentsor any evaluations of the economic consequences of the failure effects of auton-omous crop adaptation in response to extreme flood events. This paper suggeststhat these types of micro-level or community-level vulnerability and adaptationassessments are needed in respect to local riverine flooding, coastal flooding, flashflooding, and urban flooding in Bangladesh. From these events base-level dataregarding flood vulnerability and adaptation in Bangladesh need to be obtained.These community-based data need to be integrated, and sets of vulnerability andadaptation measures which would be suitable from the perspective of future cli-mate-change and sea-level change regimes should be generated for individualcommunities and for the whole of Bangladesh.

So far there has not been any significant or substantial research into the inte-grated assessment of coastal vulnerability and adaptation in response to stormsurges in Bangladesh. Based on the policy note in 1999, the Integrated CoastalZone Management (ICZM) program was set up in 2001, located in WARPO of theministry of Water Resources. It had eight objectives to address the vulnerabilitiesand opportunities of the coastal areas, where environmental friendly industrialactivities and other sustainable use of natural resources were addressed verycarefully and lawfully. The ICZM program is not now active. An important pointto recognize is that addressing storm surge vulnerability is more urgent thanaddressing sea-level rise in coastal region in Bangladesh. Different coastal eco-logical zones have different characteristics and methods of adapting. In order toobtain an integrated assessment of coastal vulnerability and adaptation, it is nec-essary to select a limited number of coastal case study areas and conduct a coastalvulnerability and adaptation study for each. International adaptation funds (cur-rently in discussion) and international donor agencies could contribute support andsupervision. While these studies would focus on vulnerability and adaptationissues and processes, the results could be integrated to achieve an overall picture ofthe Bangladesh coastal belt, including the vulnerability and adaptation char-acteristics of each region.

This proposed study would be unique insofar as this type of integrated approachhas never been done before in Bangladesh. It would be a base-level case study thataddresses vulnerability and adaptation issues at the community-level. The paperalso suggests that this kind of baseline study in the context of climate change andsea level rise in Bangladesh would be a useful way of understanding future climatechange challenges in relation to adaptation tactics and appropriate policy-making.

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Community-based adaptation committees could be established in areas along thecoastal belt and these should be organized under a central operational center tomake sure that there is an appropriate distribution of adaptation funds andresources as needed by any particular community. A central data bank could beestablished which would have all necessary information, identify vulnerabilitystatus and adaptation needs for each locality, and assist the initiation of anyemergency action indicated by that information. Such measures would help mo-bilize government authorities operating at the local level. This proposed com-munity-level integrated assessment would reduce local flood or storm-surgevulnerability as it would prioritize the adaptation options. If the local governmentagencies were to act in accordance with the suggested adaptation options, flood orstorm surge vulnerability would be significantly reduced in future under theprobable climate change regimes and this would usher in a new era of sustainableflood and storm surge adaptation.

Acknowledgement

The paper benefitted from the comments of Professor Nick Harvey, EmeritusProfessor Martin Williams and anonymous referees.

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