flood risk management and incident response in...
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www.cranfield.ac.uk
Flood risk management and incident response in practice
Professor Paul Leinster CBE
July 2017
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Flood
forecasting
Modelling Mapping
Policy Governance
Weather
forecasting
Development
control
Operation
Environmental
protection
Maintenance
Capital
schemes
Informing Warning
Monitoring
Exercises
Roles, accountabilities,
responsibilities
Recovery Incident
response
Compensatory
habitat
Components of a flood risk management programme
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o Early December surge
o 12 major winter storms between mid-December and mid-February
o Prolonged periods of heavy rain, gale-force winds, tidal surges and large waves
o Wettest winter in England for nearly 250 years
o Many areas received 200% of average rainfall
o Lowest depression recorded in UK since 1886
December 2013 to February 2014
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Lessons to be learned from every flood event
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Mapping, forecasting and warning
Think big,
act early
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Properties flooded and properties protected
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Groundwater flooding
River flooding, Morpeth
Surface, ground, fluvial or coastal flooding and do people care?
Surface water flooding
River flooding
Coastal flooding
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Infrastructure at risk
o Hospitals
o Care homes
o Police, ambulance, fire stations
o Control centres
o Transport
o Water and sewage
o Electricity substations
o Schools
o Telephone exchanges
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Improvements between 2007 and 2014
No. of properties flooded in:
2007 2014
Thames at
Oxford
350 <50
Lower Severn
1560 (fluvial
only)*
220
July 2007 February 2014
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Practical interventions
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A tale of 2 shop keepers
o 2009
o 2015
o 20??
o Business continuity
o Resilience
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Communications
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Communicating about risks can be tricky
5yrs 10yrs
5% 10%
25yrs
22%
Cheltenham 2006
£22m flood risk
management scheme
completed
Cheltenham 2007
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Land management
based approaches
95 Barlow et al 2014 Working with natural processes to reduce flood risk
National Infrastructure Commission 2017
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Land management based approaches
53 Dadson et al 2016 Natural Flood Management Reinstatement
National Infrastructure Commission 2017
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When will a new Thames Barrier be required?
o 50 closures in 2013 – 2014 winter – over one-quarter of all closures since completion in 1984
o 6 December 2013 – highest tide since completion
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Thames Estuary: using scenarios and a managed adaptive approach
New barrier
(2070 - )
Today
+0.5m
+0.2m
Improve
defences
(2040 - 2070)
Maintain
defences
(now - 2040)
1-
in -
1000 y
ear
flo
od
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Why do people do it?
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1581m
m
Legend
Groundwater Level
! Highest recorded
! Exceptionally high
! Notably high
! Above normal
! Normal
Rivers. Monthly Mean
Highest recorded
Exeptionally high
Notably high
Above Normal
Normal
What does the future hold: February 2014
Based on provisional NCIC data. % of Long Term Average
December 116 mm
(4.6 inches)
January 158 mm
(6.2 inches) February 120 mm
(4.7 inches)
140% LTA 200% LTA
212% LTA
Rainfall
River flows and groundwater
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1581m
m
Legend
Groundwater Level
! Highest recorded
! Exceptionally high
! Notably high
! Above normal
! Normal
Rivers. Monthly Mean
Highest recorded
Exeptionally high
Notably high
Above Normal
Normal
What does the future hold: February 2014
Based on provisional NCIC data. % of Long Term Average
December 116 mm
(4.6 inches)
January 158 mm
(6.2 inches) February 120 mm
(4.7 inches)
140% LTA 200% LTA
212% LTA
Rainfall
River flows and groundwater
.. new record levels –
December 2015
and
.. new record levels –
month 201?
Until
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Acting on what we do know
o Climate
o Extreme weather
o Development
o Population increase
o Infrastructure impacts