flight international - january 13, 2015

FLIGHTINTERNATIONAL

WARSAW PACKEDThree bidders still in the mix as Polish multirole helicopter contest nears evaluation phase 17

BOEING UP, UP, UP Single-aisle orders lead the way as Seattle defies own predictions to report best-ever backlog 13

SAVING MALAYSIA IS THIS MAN SET TO TAKE AVIATIONS TOUGHEST JOB? NEWS FOCUS P15

13-19 JANUARY 2015

ANALYSIS

THE SAFEST YEAR TO FLYWe look at 2014s record low fatal airliner accident rate despite loss of MH370

9 7 7 0 0 1 5 3 7 1 2 7 3

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13-19 January 2015 | Flight International | 5flightglobal.com

FLIGHTINTERNATIONAL

13-19 JANUARY 2015VOLUME 187 NUMBER 5471

FLIGHTINTERNATIONAL

WARSAW PACKEDThree bidders still in the mix as Polish multirole helicopter contest nears evaluation phase 17

BOEING UP, UP, UP Single-aisle orders lead the way as Seattle defies own predictions to report best-ever backlog 13

SAVING MALAYSIA IS THIS MAN SET TO TAKE AVIATIONS TOUGHEST JOB? NEWS FOCUS P15

13-19 JANUARY 2015

ANALYSIS

THE SAFEST YEAR TO FLYWe look at 2014s record low fatal airliner accident rate despite loss of MH370

9 7 7 0 0 1 5 3 7 1 2 7 3

0 33.50

PA

COVER IMAGEThe Vietnamese air forces Col Pham Minh Tuan takes part in the search over the Gulf of Thailand for missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 in March 2014 P22

BEHIND THE HEADLINES Operations and Safety Editor David Learmount crunched the numbers for our annual airline safety review, which shows 2014 was a record-breaking year for the industry (P22). He also looks at one pilots theory on a possible location for MH370 (P20)

NEXT WEEK EUROFIGHTERTest pilot Peter Collins gets to grips with the RAFs newest Eurofighter Typhoon standard in a BAE Systems simulator Airb

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EC725 in running for Polish helicopter requirement P17. Dream Chaser concept has NASA hopes dashed P10

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Boeing adds 1,432 rm orders to record backlog P13

COVER STORY22 AIRLINE SAFETY Believe it or not, its safer

to fly Despite public perception, 2014 was an extraordinarily good year for aviation safety but the gloom of MH370, MH17 and Decembers AirAsia disaster casts a long shadow over the positive figures

FEATURES32 No second chance The industry needs to make a

radical shift in pilot training, to get flightcrews safely in tune with modern airliner technology, but the authorities are dragging their feet

34 Missing link Slow but steady progress is being made towards the implementation of deployable flight data recorders, although reliability is still a concern

REGULARS7 Comment 37 Straight & Level38 Letters40 Classied 43 Jobs 47 Working Week

NEWS THIS WEEK 8 Fall in crash count makes 2014 safer.

Helibras delivers armys upgrades9 Tail location offers QZ8501 data hope.

Routine aircraft tracking closer to realisation10 HeliVert partners plan to assemble AW189 in

Russia. GAO ends Dream Chaser pursuit of NASA contract

11 CBP Predator B fleet takes heavy flak. Rapid rise predicted for commercial UAV market

AIR TRANSPORT 12 FAA to mandate SMS for all airlines.

Eva Air bids farewell to its final 747-400 Combi13 Boeing boosts its backlog.

First ARJ21-700 delivery awaits CAAC validation. Jet Airways ad fuels SpiceJet Q400 rumours

14 Troubled Transaero looks at deferrals. Sudan appeals to ICAO over sanctions. Wing-box for MC-21 enters testing phase

DEFENCE 16 Lavi unit heads for operational debut.

Iraqi pilots begin F-16 training in USA. Russia sees the light with Il-112V

17 Bids in for Polish helicopter contest. Upgraded Russian strategic bombers back on duty

18 F-35 chiefs return fire on baseless cannon reporting. Hawkeye unit to take UCLASS fleet under its wing

BUSINESS AVIATION 19 Passport to success as GE begins engine flight

testing. Gulfstream ships first all-new G650ER. Piaggio prepares first Avanti Evos for service entry

NEWS FOCUS 15 Mending a broken airline20 Can maths solve mystery of MH370s resting

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flightglobal.com6 | Flight International | 13-19 January 2015

CONTENTS

QUESTION OF THE WEEK

ightglobal.com/ight-international

Vote at ightglobal.com

Flightglobals premium news and data service delivers breaking air transport stories with profiles, schedules, and fleet, financial and traffic information ightglobal.com/dashboard

THE WEEK IN NUMBERS

The number of daily slots available at New York JFK and Newark under tighter FAA rules proposed to lift utilisation

Flightglobal dashboard 1,205The price of a barrel of Brent crude: a level not seen since 2009. In June 2014, Brent was trading at nearly $116

ICIS news $50Amount of its capital Japans Skymark Airlines reportedly wants to issue as new shares to boost its cash position

Flightglobal dashboard25%

This week, we ask: Will 2014 be high-water mark for airliner orders? Yes, bubble will burst soon

No sign of demand slackening Next few years will be up and down

Yes, inevitable long-term trend

29%

TOTAL VOTES:

1,397

Yes, if it tackles pilot compla-cency

33%No, sadly, flying can never be 100% safe

38%Last week, we asked: Can the industry continue to cut airline

accidents? You said:

US

Air F

orce

IMAGE OF THE WEEK The US Air Force included this shot of a US Army UH-60 Black Hawk landing during a training event in Idaho last November among a selection of its best images of 2014. Flightglobals Ascend Fleets database records the army as operating more than 2,150 of the Sikorsky-built type

View more great aviation shots online and in our weekly tablet edition:

COMMENT


See This Week P9, Feature P34

There is no greater irony to the aircraft tracking debate than the fact that it has been spurred by an event against which the technology would probably have been ineffective.

Ten months after Malaysia Airlines ight MH370 vanished, the rst proposals for comprehensive track-ing are being drawn up by ICAO for discussion.

Those trying to nd MH370 would trade a dozen pre-impact tracking points for one reliable post-crash transmission. Tracking at 15min intervals seems to have the current popular vote, but that is a long time at cruise altitude sufcient for an aircraft to sweep out a circle of uncertainty half the size of the Java Sea, in the context of the recent Indonesia AirAsia search.

To suggest tracking will provide instant relief to the task of reaching and scouring the centre of the Pacic is beyond delusion, and even if better than nothing, there is a contradiction between safety and security.

Police ofcers will tell you to put locks on your door, but reghters will tell you to remove them. You cant have it both ways, so it is down to probability analysis.

In the tracking debate, the lock is an off switch. As long as crews believe the need for such a switch to neu-tralise a tracking circuit outweighs the risk of its misuse then whatever the potential merits positing tracking as a response to deliberate interference, at least, is a non-starter.

On the wrong track?

Bordering on chaosA scathing report into the use of Predator B aircraft to monitor illegal immigration in the USA highlights a wider issue: unmanned systems are still way too complicated for many operators

Even after a nearly 15-year-old sustained burst of energy from the unmanned aviation market, operating an aircraft without a pilot on board is still considerably harder than it looks.

There is no denying the progress made in the eld of autonomous ight. Kilogramme-for-kilogramme, the militarys most advanced unmanned air vehicles pack far more surveillance capability into a single airframe than their piloted counterparts. After revolutionising the worlds of tactical aerial surveillance and battleeld interdiction, the virtues of autonomous ight control are expanding ever-onward, also encroaching steadily into strategic reconnaissance and cargo delivery. And if the rumours are true, there is also a universe of oppor-tunity awaiting in the commercial market: pending regulatory approval, of course.

And yet, a close look into so many UAV operations reveals a shambolic state of affairs.

The latest report along these lines comes from an audit of a decade-long programme by a US civilian agency Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

Since 2004, CBPs aviation arm has amassed a 10-strong eet of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Predator Bs the same aircraft designated by the US Air Force as the MQ-9 Reaper. By contrast to the USAF Reaper operation, which spans continents, the CBPs use is conned to two small stretches of the southern border of the USA, the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of California.

Despite a more hospitable working environment at least, compared to the tribal backroads of Pakistan and Yemen the audit shows the CBP eet can barely stay in the area. The 10 UAVs it owns y only 22% of the required ight hours, with the shortfall blamed on weather, operating restrictions and budget constraints.

The latter appears to be the strongest incentive for keeping the Predator Bs on the ground. According to the audit, the CBPs Predator Bs cost more than $12,000 per hour to y. That means the turboprop-powered air-craft is nearly as expensive to y as a twinjet strike ghter like Fairchild Republics A-10.

The CBPs experience is not unique. As late as 2011, the USAF recorded a 22% mission capability rate on its Northrop Grumman RQ-4A Global Hawk eet, with an audit of the operational test programme citing simi-lar challenges as recorded in the CBP audit.

Perhaps the bottom-line driven mentality of the commercial market is exactly what the unmanned air system sector needs to thrive. See This Week P11

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Not as easy as it looks

The bottom-line mentalityof the commercial market iswhat the UAS sector needs

David Learmount offers his succinct views on the complexities of aviation safety ightglobal.com/Learmount

THIS WEEK


Enjoy more of David Learmounts latest insights into the world of airline safety at ightglobal.com/learmount

QATAR FIRMS UP DEAL FOR FOUR 777 FREIGHTERSCOMMITMENT Qatar Airways has finalised an order for four Boeing 777 freighters. The airline first announced plans to order the aircraft at the Farnborough air show in July 2014. Qatar also has purchase rights for four additional 777Fs, which will bring the total value of the order to $2.46 billion if exercised.

ISRAEL TO BOOST AT-802 FIREFIGHTING FLEETORDER Elbit Systems has been awarded roughly $100 million to purchase another six Air Tractor AT-802Fs for the Israeli air forces firefighting squadron and run an expanded fleet of 14 aircraft for eight years. Eight aircraft introduced following a forest fire that claimed the lives of 45 people in December 2010 have so far flown more than 4,600 sorties and helped to tackle over 500 blazes.

BOMBARDIER SEALS LEARJET 75 CONTRACTSALE Bombardier has secured a deal with an undisclosed customer for up to nine Learjet 75 superlight business jets. The contract for six firm orders and three options is valued at around $83 million, the company says. The Learjet 75 entered service in 2013 as a re-vamp of the 45XR, featuring more powerful Honeywell TFE731-40BR engines, a Garmin G5000-based Vision flightdeck and new interior.

P&WC CASTS MAGELLAN AS SUPPLY PARTNERPRODUCTION Pratt & Whitney Canada has agreed a 10-year pact with Magellan Aerospace, covering the latters supply of magnesium and aluminium castings for current engines and its new PW1100G geared turbofan. The latter is an option for the Airbus A320neo, with variants to power the Bombardier CSeries and Mitsubishi MRJ. Magellan says the agreement should generate total revenues worth around C$250 million ($211 million).

WARSAW SEEKS NEW VIP TRANSPORT PAIRREQUIREMENT Polands defence ministry plans to buy two long-range VIP transports, each capable of carrying a maximum of 12 to 14 passengers. To be crewed by air force pilots, the new aircraft will complement a pair of Embraer 175LRs chartered from LOT Polish Airlines since January 2014. Warsaw has been seeking a modern VIP capability since an April 2010 Tupolev Tu-154 crash which killed 96 people, including President Lech Kaczyn ski.

GEAR COLLAPSES AS SAAB 340 VEERS OFF RUNWAYACCIDENT UK investigators are looking into a gear-collapse incident involving a Loganair Saab 340 operating for Flybe. The 2 January incident took place at Stornoway airport in the Outer Hebrides in Scotland. At 08:33 the aircraft veered off the runway, says the air-ports operator. Images from the scene show the turboprop in rough grass with its nose-gear apparently having failed. Two of the 28 peo-ple on board the aircraft suffered minor injuries.

HISPANO-SUIZA PLANS POLISH PRODUCTION PLANTINVESTMENT Safrans Hispano-Suiza division is investing in a new Polish plant to produce components for engines including the CFM International Leap. The Leap will power the Boeing 737 Max and Airbus A320neo, as well as Comacs C919. The plant will be located in the southeast where local subsidiary Hispano-Suiza Polska has a facility and employ 100 personnel. It will have two production lines, building low-pressure turbine blades for CFM partner Snecma as well as compressor spools for Techspace Aero.

BRIEFING

The 2014 calendar year was the best ever for airline safety, ac-cording to Ascend, a Flightglobal advisory service.

Ascends director of air safety and insurance, Paul Hayes, says the global airline fatal accident rate in 2014 was one per every 2.38 million ights, narrowly making it the safest year ever. The previous best had been 2012, when a fatal accident rate of one per every 2.37 million ights was recorded.

The latest gures exclude the 17 July 2014 loss of Malaysia Air-lines ight MH17, on the grounds that the Boeing 777-200ER was shot down by a missile and is cat-egorised by Ascend as having been a war risk loss, rather than

an accident. However, although doubts exist about the status of the carriers missing ight MH370, that incident has been in-cluded in the fatal accident rate.

Flight Internationals annual review of global airline safety shows that there there were 19 fatal accidents in 2014 also the lowest ever gure and a com-bined 671 fatalities. This com-pares with 2013, during which 26 fatal accidents occurred and a re-cord low of 281 fatalities was re-corded, at a rate of one per every 1.91 million ights.

The average fatal accident rate for the last ve years was around one death per every 1.75 million ights. See Feature P22

STATISTICS DAVID LEARMOUNT LONDON

Fall in crash count made 2014 safestLower fatal accident rate last year made it a record-breaking one in aviation, but major incidents pushed up casualty total

Airbus Helicopters Brazilian subsidiary Helibras has deliv-ered the rst four of 36 AS350 Squirrel and AS550 Fennec rotor-craft modernised for the nations army at its Itajub site.

Modications to the light single-engined types included the inte-gration of a glass cockpit with new communication and navigation equipment, plus additional ballis-tic protection. Where possible, the upgrades were developed by Heli-bras, or delivered by other Brazil-ian companies, including AEL Sistemas, Sagem Defesa Aeronu-tica and Becker Avionics do Brasil.

Separately, Elbit Systems of America has been awarded a $106 million subcontract from Marsh Aviation to upgrade four stored Grumman C-1As for Bra-zils navy.

To be conducted at subsidiary M7 Aerospaces San Antonio, Texas facility over a ve-year pe-riod, the work will replace the types engines, avionics and com-munications equipment and add an air-to-air refuelling capability. The re-designated KC-2s will be dedicated to carrier onboard de-livery and tanker duties from the aircraft carrier So Paulo.

The modified AS550 Fennec has received a new glass cockpit

Helibras delivers armys upgradesROTORCRAFT DOMINIC PERRY LONDON ARIE EGOZI TEL AVIV

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THIS WEEK


HeliVert partners plan to assemble AW189 in RussiaTHIS WEEK P10

Investigators are moving closer to determining what caused the crash of Indonesia AirAsia ight QZ8501, having located the Air-bus A320s tail section and some fuselage sections.

Located by Indonesias nation-al search and rescue agency Ba-sarnas, the tail section is where the aircrafts cockpit voice re-corder and ight data recorder are installed.

If [it is the] right part of [the] tail section, then the black box should be there, AirAsia group chief Tony Fernandes said following the discovery. Search teams had until that point been unable to detect any pings from either recorder, and their location by divers at a 30m depth was being hindered by ex-tremely poor visibility.

ICAO is set to propose the im-plementation of short-term measures for routine aircraft tracking, following recommenda-tions for 15min position updates put forward by an IATA task force last November.

The task forces efforts have been highlighted by ICAO in a paper prepared for a high-level safety conference to be held in Montreal next month. Participants will be invited to note the teams conclusions and recommend that the organisation promote and fa-cilitate routine aircraft tracking as a matter of priority, the docu-ment states. The proposal repre-sents an important rst step to laying a foundation for aircraft tracking development, it adds.

ICAO will also present its con-cept of operations document for a Global Aeronautical Distress and Safety System, identifying multi-ple weaknesses in current track-ing, alerting and search-and-res-cue capabilities.

Technology such as contracted automatic dependent surveil-

CRASH AARON CHONG & GREG WALDRON SINGAPORE

Tail location offers QZ8501 data hopeGroup chief Tony Fernandes defends AirAsia schedule as search teams discover A320 parts that may contain black box

By 8 January, search teams had recovered 44 bodies from the air-craft, which crashed into the Java Sea in bad weather on 28 Decem-ber while carrying 155 passen-gers and seven crew.

Jakartas transport ministry on 2 January suspended Indonesia AirAsias operation of the Sura-baya-Singapore route, saying the carrier had violated operational procedures by ying without per-mission on a Sunday.

Fernandes defended his air-line, saying it had the rights to y the route seven days a week. We have secured slots as well as ap-proval from both Indonesia and Singapore. What happened was purely an administration error, he says, while welcoming the transport ministrys evaluation of

coordination between the slot co-ordinator and airports.

The process has become clear now, he says. I also recom-

mend what is being implemented in Singapore; an integrated com-puterised system so that every-one is on the same page.

Wreckage from the crashed Airbus continues to be recovered

A task force has recommended routine 15min position updates

Routine aircraft tracking moves closer to realisationSAFETY DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

lance (ADS-C) could provide a near-term tracking path, although not all air navigation providers offer the service. Air France ight AF447, lost over the South Atlan-tic in June 2009, had 15min ADS-C capability but owing to ight-plan format errors was unable to log-on to the oceanic air trafc control system operated at Senegals Dakar centre.

While 15min position updates would be regular, they would still potentially leave a large region of

uncertainty over a possible crash location. At a typical cruise speed of 470kt (870km/h), an aircraft would travel over 100nm (185km) in the interval.

Some carriers have modied the ACARS addressing system to provide 10min position updates, along with trigger notication of unplanned ight-prole devia-tions. Analysis of a position re-port and maintenance messages sent using this method helped to narrow the search area for AF447, but still left a circle with a 40nm radius.

Automatic position broadcast, through ADS-B, has long been available as a tracking mecha-nism, but relies on ground stations to receive transmissions. Space-based infrastructure will enable such data to be relayed from oce-anic and remote regions using 66 Iridium satellites, ICAO notes.

Although the fee structure for the service has not been nal-ised, it is foreseen that it will be provided at a signicantly lower cost than would be required to

expand or install and maintain a ground-based surveillance infra-structure, says a presentation prepared by Canadian-led part-nership Aireon. This expects to have space-based ADS-B capa-bility available from 2017, and has offered to provide aircraft tracking data to rescue organisa-tions free of charge in the event of an emergency.

However, while ICAO and IATA are promoting the develop-ment of ight-tracking capabili-ties, the issue of deliberate de-ac-tivation suspected in the unsolved disappearance of Ma-laysia Airlines ight MH370 re-mains unresolved.

From a safety perspective, all electrical components on board an aircraft must have the ability to have their power source inter-rupted in the event of an electri-cal system malfunction or re, IATAs task force says. While these types of operational and safety-related events are rare, the fact remains that equipment on board aircraft can be disabled.

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THIS WEEK


For more in-depth coverage of the global rotorcraft sector, go online to ightglobal.com/helicopters

AgustaWestland has broad-ened the scope of its Mos-cow-based HeliVert joint venture to include assembly of its new AW189 super-medium twin.

The move clears the way for a big sales boost for the 8.3t type, with Russian oil giant Rosneft lined up to potentially acquire up to 160 locally-built examples.

HeliVert, in which Russian Helicopters also holds a 50% stake, was set up in 2012 to as-semble the AW139 intermediate twin, manufacturing up to 20 per year for the local market. The new strategic partnership,

signed on 31 December 2014 by parent companies Finmeccanica and Rostec, will see the rst two AW189s delivered from the Tomilino facility near Moscow to Rosneft in mid-2015, Rostec says.

Successful operation of the helicopters could see the oil com-pany order an additional eight in the autumn of 2015, it adds, with the potential size of its commit-ment to rise to 160 by 2025.

HeliVert also will have an ex-clusive licence to sell and manu-facture the AW139 and AW189 for Russia and the Common-wealth of Independent States, and to provide after-sales support and training for the types.

The development of offshore projects is a strategic objective of Rosneft, says chief executive Igor Sechin. The implementation of this task is impossible without modern Arctic and marine engi-neering [and] oil and gas plat-forms, and modern aircraft.

The US Government Account-ability Ofce (GAO) has put an end to a Sierra Nevada (SNC) dream of providing NASA with a lifting body spaceplane as part of

APPROVAL

SAR variant gains delayed certicationBristow Helicopters hopes to receive AgustaWestlands first UK-built AW189 configured for search and rescue (SAR) operations later this month, following certification of the variant in late December.

One Italian-completed AW189 arrived at Bristows Norwich facility in Norfolk in November, but all future SAR-configured examples will be assembled at AgustaWestlands Yeovil factory in Somerset. Bristow expects the first of these to be deliv-ered later this month, with the ro-

torcraft to be used on its contract with the UK government to progres-sively take over SAR activities from the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy.

Delays to certification of the 8.6t SAR variant and slow progress in establishing the production line at Yeovil have prompted Bristow to develop contingency plans, including the acquisition of a pair of smaller AW139s. The first base due to operate AW189s at Inverness in Scotland is scheduled to go live on 1 April.

The reusable spaceplane concept lost out to Boeing and SpaceX

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The development ofoffshore projects is a strategic objective of RosneftIGOR SECHIN Chief executive, Rosneft

ROTORCRAFT DOMINIC PERRY LONDON

HeliVert partners plan to assemble AW189 in RussiaAgustaWestland and Russian Helicopters extend their joint venture to include production of 8.3t super-medium twin

GAO ends Dream Chaser pursuit of NASA contractSPACEFLIGHT DAN THISDELL LONDON

the agencys plan to replace the Space Shuttles astronaut trans-port capability with spacecraft provided by the private sector.

SNC had appealed against a

September 2014 choice of pro-posals by Boeing and SpaceX over its Dream Chaser to receive development funding under the Commercial Crew Transporta-tion Capability contract. Deny-ing its appeal on 5 January, the GAO supported NASAs conclu-sion that the Boeing CST-100 and SpaceX Dragon capsules offer better value.

All three reusable systems have been designed to carry up to seven astronauts, with crewed ights from US soil to the International Space Station planned to com-mence in 2017. The USA has had no capability to y astronauts

since the 2011 retirement of its Space Shuttle eet, and has since bought rides to the ISS from Rus-sia, aboard Soyuz rockets from Baikonur in Kazakhstan.

Just days after NASAs decision last September, SNC un-veiled a concept realised with air launched systems developer Stra-tolauncher for a smaller, three-person version of its spaceplane. Under a 2014 agreement with the European Space Agency and Ger-manys DLR aerospace centre, the parties also will explore ways to exploit Dream Chaser or its vari-ants beyond the original goal of supporting the ISS.

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THIS WEEK


Market analysts are predict-ing that the value of the small unmanned air vehicle mar-ket will surpass $8.4 billion by 2019, with commercial use of the technology to dominate business.

In a 5 January report, ABI Research claims that revenues for the commercial use of small unmanned air systems (SUAS) will be in excess of $5.1 billion by 2019, representing a compound annual growth rate of some 51% from 2014.

By the end of its study period, the commercial market is expect-ed to be 2.3 times larger than the military sector and ve times larger than the hobbyist market, the company says.

The commercial sector is the sweet spot for SUAS use, says Dan Kara, practice director at ABI Research, referring to a current focus on this area of the market by both defence contractors and hobbyist manufacturers.

Both groups of SUAS makers, along with other classes of solu-tion providers, are aggressively targeting the commercial sector through acquisitions, internal de-velopment, partnerships and in-vestment, he says.

Industry applications for the technology, along with data, operator and modelling services will be the main driver for SUAS in this market, ABI believes, and not necessarily just the un-manned platforms themselves.

Ongoing research advance-ments, technological develop-ments and dropping prices for in-creasingly capable enabling technologies have combined to remove barriers to innovation and

commercialisation, spur the de-velopment of new SUAS and in-crease the ways they can be ap-plied, the company says.

ABI considers types with a maximum take-off weight of less than 11kg (25lb) to be SUAS, in-cluding xed-wing and single-/multi-rotor vertical take-off and landing platforms. Designs in-tended for professional and per-sonal use were considered in its study, but others, such as systems costing less than $350, plus functionally limited and low-tech models produced for the toy industry were excluded.

FAA to mandate SMS for all airlinesAIR TRANSPORT P12

For more coverage of the unmanned air sector visit ightglobal.com/UAV

The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency no longer plans to acquire 14 more medium altitude unmanned air vehicles, and faces stinging new criticism about the effectiveness of its current eet of 10 such aircraft.

Comprised of unarmed land and maritime surveillance ver-sions of the General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Predator B, the agencys eet is so restrict-ed by budget, operational and weather constraints that the aircraft have completed only 22% of planned ight hours, a report by the Ofce of Inspector General (IG) says.

Moreover, an $8 million sensor the Northrop Grumman vehicle and dismount exploitation radar (VADER) is not being used prop-erly, the report says. Although VADER has detected thousands of suspected illegal immigrants after they have crossed the US border, it is not being used by the CBP for the strategic purpose of tracing their routes back to where they entered the country.

The IG has consequently rec-ommended that the CBP invest

$443 million on something more useful than expanding its UAV eet to 24 aircraft.

CBP has invested signicant funds in a programme that has not achieved the expected re-sults, and it cannot demonstrate how much the programme has improved border security, the report says.

It adds that the agency has stat-ed it no longer intends to expand the Predator B eet, although an approved requirement for the ad-ditional aircraft still exits.

The IG report also catalogues a list of details about the CBPs UAV operations along the south-ern land and maritime borders of the USA. Although the CBP esti-mates it costs only about $2,500 per ight hour to operate the Predator B, the IG report says the actual cost is nearly six times higher after factoring in salaries for pilots and maintainers, depre-ciation and the cost of maintain-ing the VADER sensor.

The agencys Predator B eet also faces weather-related restric-

tions, as the type cannot be oper-ated in storms or where there is cloud cover, the report says.

The CBP partly justied the ex-pense of standing up the Predator B eet estimated by the IG at $360 million by promising cost savings, as the aircraft could be used to respond to ground motion alerts along the border instead of other aircraft or patrol ofcers.

However, the IG found only six instances where a UAV had been used to respond to a ground motion alert.

Industrial use will drive sales

Rapid rise predicted for commercial UAV marketUNMANNED SYSTEMS BETH STEVENSON LONDON

UNMANNED SYSTEMS STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

CBP Predator B eet takes heavy akUS border agency comes under intense criticism over failings in use of unmanned aircraft to monitor illegal immigration

Rex

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The medium-altitude surveillance aircraft were found to have completed 22% of planned flight hours

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AIR TRANSPORT


For up-to-the-minute air transport news, network and fleet information sign up at: ightglobal.com/dashboard

Taiwanese carrier Eva Air has retired its last Boeing 747-400 Combi.

The types nal service was op-erated by B-16409 on the Hong Kong-Taipei Taoyuan route, the Star Alliance member says.

Besides operating passenger and cargo services, the aircraft, which has an extended cargo sec-tion, has also performed diplo-matic missions for the island na-tions presidents.

The aircraft will be sold, disas-sembled and harvested for parts.

Flightglobals Ascend Fleets database shows Eva Air took de-livery of its rst 747-400 Combi in May 1993, and had operated 10 in total. All of Evas Combi air-craft had a lower passenger seat count than a typical 747-400, with 276 seats.

Asiana Airlines, Kuwait Air-ways and KLM also operate the 747-400 Combi.

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B-16409 will be sold, disassembled and harvested for parts

Eva Air bids farewell to its final 747-400 CombiRETIREMENT FIRDAUS HASHIM SINGAPORE

REGULATION JON HEMMERDINGER WASHINGTON DC

FAA to mandate SMS for all airlinesUS scheduled carriers obliged to develop company-wide programmes by 2018, in order to identify and mitigate risks

STRATEGY MAVIS TOH SINGAPORE

China to invest in navigation technologyThe Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has pledged to in-crease its investment in new tech-nologies to further improve aerospace navigation and enhance flight safety.

CAAC says that by end of the year, 10% of all Chinese airlines fleets will have head-up displays installed.

Shanghais Pudong International airport will also test out a ground-based augmentation landing system in the first quarter, and subsequently put it into operation.

A ground-based augmentation system boosts GPS signals for air-

craft flying near airports, improving the accuracy and integrity of location co-ordinates.

The administration has also pledged to design and implement performance-based navigation at all transport airports across the coun-try by the end of 2016.

By 2017 it will also roll out the countrys first automatic depend-ence surveillance broadcast ground stations.

China says it will have 230 air-ports for passenger and cargo trans-port at the end of 2015, up from 182 in 2011.

A new Federal Aviation Administration rule will re-quire US scheduled airlines to de-velop organisation-wide safety management systems (SMS) pro-grammes by 2018.

The rule, announced by the ad-ministration on 7 January, is an effort by the FAA to ensure air-lines can identify and mitigate potential risks.

SMS are detailed, company-wide programmes that dene processes for examining opera-tional data, isolating dangerous trends and mitigating risks.

The rule will take effect in early March. US-based carriers will then have six months to sub-mit an SMS implementation plan to the FAA. The carriers will need to develop and implement their nal SMS by 2018.

SMS enable airlines to detect patterns in their data, which are basically the early warning signs of an accident, says Anthony Foxx, secretary of the Department of Transportation. We must be smarter about how airlines ana-lyse and benet from the data they collect every day.

Foxx adds that SMS should help the industry reach the DoTs goal of cutting aviations fatality risk by 50% by 2025.

FAA administrator Michael Huerta says the rule will help

airlines establish safety-focused cultures and assist carriers and regulators with identifying poten-tially dangerous trends.

The rule follows a review by the FAA of 100 airline accidents between 2001 and 2010, Huerta says. We determined that if SMS had been in place, they may have prevented many of these acci-dents, he adds.

The rule requires airline SMS to include four components: a safety policy that denes safety objectives, risk management pro-cesses that help carriers analyse safety and identify hazards, an as-surance plan to monitor safety performance and a safety promo-tion component aimed at helping carriers train employees and communicate safety information.

Carriers must also designate an executive responsible for over-seeing SMS.

The FAA estimates that the rule will cost airlines $224 mil-lion over 10 years. The nancial benets are calculated to be $205-472 million.

US airlines have been piloting SMS for several years, says Nick Calio, chief executive of trade group Airlines for America. Calio adds that all his groups airline members have voluntary SMS-type programmes, or have helped develop SMS standards.

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Many domestic carriers have been running pilot SMS for years

AIR TRANSPORT


Troubled Transaero looks at deferralsAIR TRANSPORT P14

Boeing closed the books on 2014 with a total of 1,432 new rm orders added to a record backlog about twice what exec-utives had forecast last January.

In the face of erce competi-tion, we had a strong year, says Ray Conner, president and chief executive of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Last January, Boeing executives forecast a book-to-bill ratio of about 1:1, with orders to roughly match deliveries of 723 aircraft in 2014.

Airbus plans to release 2014 order totals this week, but reported 1,031 net orders from January to November. Sources close to the airframer indicated last week that Airbus secured more orders than its rival in 2014.

The vast majority of Boeings bookings came from the single-aisle market. The current models and the future, re-engined 737 Max variant combined to amass 1,104 net orders in 2014.

On the other side, the 747-8 programme ended 2014 with no new rm orders added and a backlog of 36 aircraft. Although Boeing added two orders in 2014, customers cancelled deals for two 747-8s as well.

The current and re-engined 777 programmes, meanwhile, added 283 new orders with no cancellations, raising the backlog to 564 aircraft. On the 787 pro-gramme, the company added 65 gross orders, but cancellations re-

Chinese airframer Comac has yet to rm a date for the deliv-ery of its rst ARJ21-700 to launch customer Chengdu Airlines.

Comac says the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is conducting an airworthiness in-spection on the regional jet. It is also reviewing Comacs operation-al support system and will have to grant it a production licence.

Only after these validations can the rst ARJ21 be delivered sometime in 2015, says Comac.

It adds that aircraft 105 to 109 are scheduled for Chengdu Airlines. Aircraft 105 and 106 have taken their rst ights, while aircraft 107 is undergoing nal assembly. Parts assembly is meanwhile ongoing for aircraft 108 and 109.

CAAC issued type certica-tion for the indigenous regional jet on 30 December 2014, marking a major milestone for China in its foray into the commercial aircraft manufactur-ing sector. The certication came more than 12 years after the programme was launched.

Chengdu Airlines has 30 ARJ21s on order.

Indian airline Jet Airways has created something of a stir in the industry by posting a recruit-ment ad seeking pilots for the Bombardier Q400, an aircraft type it does not operate and for which it has no orders.

Local media have speculated that Jet could acquire the Q400 eet of beleaguered rival SpiceJet; the only carrier in the country now using the type. Flightglobals Ascend Fleets database shows that SpiceJet has 15 of the type, all leased.

When contacted by Flightglobal, a Jet spokeswoman did not say outright that the airline will obtain Q400s, but her reply was tantalising: At Jet Airways we continually look at enhancing our talent pool for all categories of employment, including cockpit crew as per the companys requirement, she said. This also includes [the] Q400 category.

Ascend shows that Jet Air-ways operates 18 leased ATR 72s. Seven examples have lease terms expiring soon.

ORDERS AND DELIVERIES STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

Boeing boosts its backlogAirframer notches up double the number of net orders in 2014 it had predicted in January

The company increased the rate of its 737 production line

FLEET AARON CHONG SINGAPORE

Jet Airways ad fuels SpiceJet Q400 rumours

First ARJ21-700 delivery awaits CAAC validationPROGRAMME MAVIS TOH SINGAPORE

All 15 of the type are leased

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Chengdu has 30 jets on order

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duced the net order tally to 41. The backlog at the end of 2014 stood at 843 aircraft.

The 767 programme added four new orders in 2014, raising the backlog to 47.

Boeing also set a new commer-cial aircraft delivery record in 2014 by shipping 723 aircraft overall, including 114 787s.

The year-end total beat the companys modern era record set in 2013 of 648 aircraft deliveries, including 65 787s. It is likely to heavily beat Airbuss output in 2014, as the European manufac-turer has forecast a similar num-ber of deliveries in 2014 as the previous years total of 626.

It also easily exceeds the previous record set in 1968 for

combined deliveries of Boeing- and Douglas-built aircraft. The two aircraft companies, which merged in the 1990s, delivered 680 aircraft that year.

Boeing doubled monthly 787 output to 10 per month last Janu-ary and increased the rate on the 737 line by about 10% to 42 last April. The nal delivery total fell near the high end of Boeings guidance of between 715 and 725 aircraft deliveries in 2014.

The production record was set with help from a push on the 787 in the fourth quarter. Boeing delivered 35 of the twin-aisle aircraft in the last three months of 2014, or ve more than the monthly production rate would suggest.

AIR TRANSPORT


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Russian carrier Transaero is looking at a possible deferral of planned aircraft deliveries as part of a series of measures to balance capacity.

The airline states it is consid-ering the issue of postponing some of the delivery terms of jets due to arrive in 2015. It has not indicated which specic types are being examined, but it had been intending to take air-craft including its rst Airbus A380s, as well as A321s and Sukhoi Superjets, this year.

They are part of a broad eet-renewal programme which also includes acquisitions of Boeing 747-8s and A320neos.

Transaero says it will undertake measures to optimise its pas-senger capacity over the rst three months of 2015, which it says is excessive for the low season.

ORDERS DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW & MICHAEL GUBISCH LONDON

Troubled Transaero looks at deferralsMoscow-based airline to re-examine its fleet plan and capacity as its Irish MRO subsidiary enters bankruptcy protection

Russian researchers have commenced testing on the initial wing-box for Irkuts MC-21-300 twinjet.

The work is being carried out by Moscows Central Aerohydro-dynamics Institute.

It says that the tests will comprise three phases. The rst will examine the operational strength of the structure by simulating real ight conditions.

The structure will then be transferred to a facility in Turayevo which will carry out simulations to assess the effect of bird strikes.

It will be returned to the insti-tute for the third phase, involving testing of residual strength.

Irkut expects to begin test ights of the MC-21 set to be redesignated as the Yak-242 in the rst half of 2016.

DEVELOPMENT DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

Wing-box for MC-21 enters testing phase

The airline has received assistance from the Russian government

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The airline, which was pre-dicting passenger numbers to rise by nearly 5% to 13.1 million for the full year 2014, has also se-cured nancial assistance from the Russian government.

Meanwhile, Irish-based maintenance provider Transaero

Engineering Ireland (TEI) has en-tered bankruptcy protection as a result of its Russian parent carri-ers nancial difculties.

Irelands High Court has ap-pointed Michael McAteer of Grant Thornton as interim examiner to develop a restructuring plan,

after the MRO specialist made a request for protection on 5 Janu-ary. It continues to trade normally.

Moscow-based Transaero Airlines cannot pay TEI moneys due for services rendered [or] sup-port TEI on an ongoing basis, the MRO provider says.

The airline is beset by what TEI terms serious nancial dif-culties arising from US and EU trade sanctions against Russia, as well as declines in the roubles value and the price of oil. Ini-tial contact has been made with a potential nancier to put the company onto a solid footing, the subsidiary says.

TEI employs a staff of around 230 people and specialises in air-frame maintenance for 737s, 757s and 767s. Formerly named Air Atlanta Aero Engineering, it was acquired by Transaero in 2012.

Sudanese ofcials are to de-clare a formal objection to political sanctions at an upcom-ing ICAO safety conference, claiming that they have a detri-mental effect on aviation safety.

The country has been subject to US government sanctions since 1997, which have impacted ag-carrier Sudan Airways.

Sudan is also covered by a blanket airline blacklisting by the European Commission.

In a presentation prepared for the ICAO high-level safety confer-ence in February, the Sudanese delegation argues that imposing sanctions on aviation-related equipment constitutes a signi-cant risk to air navigation opera-tions a sector which, it says, is not the primary target.

The negative impact of sanc-tions to the safety and well-being of aviation activities throughout the world outweighs whatever objectives the sanctions are ex-pected to achieve, it adds.

Sudan appeals to ICAO over sanctionsSAFETY DAVID KAMINSKI-MORROW LONDON

US and European supply restrictions have affected Sudan Airways

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Resolutions passed under the ICAO umbrella, it says, have not borne positive results and the risk to international aircraft oper-ations remains uninhibited.

Manufacture of aircraft and air trafc control systems is a multi-national process, it says, and the Sudanese delegation is to recom-mend that the ICAO Council pursues measures to convince countries imposing sanctions to make necessary exceptions.

Meanwhile, European authori-ties have issued warnings about security in South Sudan airspace as a result of armed conict in the

newly-independent state. Clash-es between government and rebel forces are posing a risk to ight operations, notably from rocket-propelled grenades and shoulder-launched missiles, says EASA.

In a safety bulletin it is recom-mending that all aircraft opera-tors exercise extreme caution if planning to y into, or over, the region.

Its advisory is one of several recently issued to highlight the potential risk of overying re-gions of conict, also including Afghanistan, Libya, Mali, the Sinai Peninsula and Syria.


Lavi unit heads for operational debutDEFENCE P16

Some feel that the six A380s MAS operates are too large to be protable

With a damaged image, weak finances and structural problems, MAS is in deep trouble. Can Christoph Mueller save it?

Mending a broken airlineAPPOINTMENT GREG WALDRON SINGAPORE

Both rivals have better cost structures, and no qualms about competing on price.

On the international front MAS is pitted against fast-grow-ing, long-haul, low-cost player AirAsia X, which benets from tight connectivity with AirAsia. It also must contend with the three super connector Gulf carriers, and regional players Singapore Airlines and Thai Airways.

The expert consensus is that Mueller is the best man for the job, but some question whether even his acumen and leadership skills will be up to the task.

MAS has long had an ex-tremely close relationship with the Malaysian government and political interests. Throughout its history, it has been regarded as an important player in pro-moting Malaysia, both at home and aboard. Like other legacy carriers, it has struggled for prof-itability, if not outright rele-vance, in an era characterised by deregulated markets and nimble, aggressive low-cost rivals.

NEWS FOCUS

Christoph Mueller will assume the toughest job in the airline business when he takes over as chief executive of Malaysia Airlines (MAS) later this year. Taking the reins of a troubled carrier is familiar territo-ry for the German, who engi-neered the turnaround of Irelands Aer Lingus. In a 2011 Airline Business interview, he said that when he took charge of the ag carrier in 2009, it resembled a pa-tient in an emergency room, haemorrhaging cash. He may well feel a sense of dj vu when he for-mally steps into the MAS role.

Mueller will not have to contend with public shareholders and analysts following MASs de-listing on the last day of 2014, but this is arguably the only problem not on his plate. Even before his appointment in December, his mission was clear, after sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional outlined its 12-point restructuring plan for MAS in August 2014.

DISAPPEARANCESalient elements of the plan in-clude cutting the workforce by 30% from 20,000 staff in August (a process already underway), moving the companys headquar-ters, and focusing more on re-gional routes. Protability is to be achieved within three years no small feat given that MASs third quarter results, released on 28 November, revealed net losses had widened to some 576 million ringgit ($163 million).

MASs 2014 results were weighed down by the disappear-ance of MH370 in March and shooting down of MH17 over Ukraine in July, resulting in the loss of 537 lives.

All of the changes need to happen in a cut-throat market. On domestic and regional routes, MAS faces its traditional neme-sis AirAsia and (to a lesser de-gree) Lion Airs Malindo unit.

The key to making these changes happen, and turning MAS around, is getting stake-holders on-side and getting real political backing, says one ob-server familiar with the carrier. Its all-too-easy for a politician to say downsize the airline.

He says the environment fac-ing MAS today is far more com-petitive than when former chief executive Idris Jala turned the carrier around a decade ago, be-cause at that time AirAsia hardly existed. Southeast Asias other big turnaround in recent years, Garuda Indonesia, occurred when Lion Air was still a cub.

John Strickland of JLS Consulting is cautiously opti-mistic. Its a difcult job, but not impossible, he says.

He notes: Mueller has a good track record. He took Aer Lingus from having a primarily low-cost focus to having a business travel-ler emphasis, at a time when Eu-rope was suffering the effects of an economic crisis with a strong low-cost rival in the form of Ryanair.

OBSOLESCENCEMueller also has to contend with several structural issues. Fore-most among these are long-haul routes where the carrier has boosted load factors at the expense of yields. More urgently, he must address obsolescence is-sues with the carriers 13 Boeing 777-200ERs, which are on aver-age 20 years old. MASs six Air-bus A380s are the agships of the eet, but many observers feel the superjumbos are simply too large for such a carrier to ll protably.

Joanna Lu, head of advisory at Ascend Flightglobal consultancy in Asia, feels Muellers key c hallenge will be overhauling the MAS management culture.

Muellers challenge is chang-ing the overall work culture in this airline, helping it know more about the market and their competitors, and making the MAS team more disciplined, she says. He has to re-brand the company and convince the world this is a totally new and professional airline.

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Mueller said Aer Lingus was like a patient in an emergency roomBi

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DEFENCE


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Russias Ilyushin design bureau is to proceed with develop-ment work on the Il-112V light transport for the nations military.

Ilyushins parent company United Aircraft says it has signed a contract with the defence ministry covering the construction of two prototypes of the design, which will have a 6.5t payload capacity.

The high-wing Il-112V a competitor to the Antonov An-140 was one of the focus programmes outlined in a recent strategic consolidation involving Ilyushin. First ight of the new model is scheduled for 2016.

Ilyushin says it expects to sign a further contract with the defence ministry that year, and for series production aircraft to emerge from the VASO manufacturing facility in Voronezh from 2018.

An Israeli air force squadron equipped with Alenia Aermacchi M-346 Lavi ad-vanced jet trainers is close to being declared operational, hav-ing already received nine aircraft from an eventual 30-strong eet.

Israels rst M-346 landed at Hazerim air base last July, and deliveries are continuing on schedule. A replacement for aged Douglas A-4 Skyhawks, the Lavi represents a revolution in train-ing, says an air force Lockheed Martin F-16I pilot identied only as Maj E who is part of the initial team of instructors.

Testing of the M-346 by pilots from the air forces ight test unit is continuing at Hazerim, in an effort to prepare the type for use with the rst student pilots and weapon system ofcers (WSO).

Meanwhile, a new simulator centre bustles with activity, with instructors preparing lessons for the rst cadets. Developed by Elbit Systems, together with Ale-

FLEETS ARIE EGOZI HAZERIM AIR BASE

Lavi unit heads for operational debutIsraeli air force lauds Alenia Aermacchi type as offering revolution in capability, as instructors get ready for first cadets

DEVELOPMENT

Russia sees the light with Il-112V

nia Aermacchi, CAE and Selex, the ground-based training system (GBTS) facility houses two full mission simulators and two op-erational ight simulators, all of which can be linked together.

Pilots and WSOs will receive training ranging from basic air-craft familiarisation to the highest level of combat ight compe-tence. A high percentage of the syllabus will be practised using the GBTS, which trainees will visit on a daily basis.

Until now we demanded the cadets to perform 120 air mis-sions as part of the training. From now on, they will be required to do only 100. The rest will be done in this very advanced facility, says Maj E.

The air force selected this method so that its new ight crews will be qualied to pro-gress directly to types like the F-16, Boeing F-15 and Lockheed F-35 Lightning II after completing their instruction. By contrast, a

new pilot reaching a ghting squadron after ying the Skyhawk had to begin operational training almost from scratch. The squad-ron hated that, as they consider it a waste of time and resources, the instructor says. This is com-pletely changed now.

Maj E says the most signicant advantage of the Lavi is its use of an embedded virtual simulation system, which was developed by Elbit and integrated by Alenia Aermacchi. This turns the Lavi into a combat aircraft laden with systems it actually does not carry, like radar, missiles and electronic warfare systems, he says.

He also praises its safety fea-tures, including an upset recov-ery button. When the pilot feels the rst sign of vertigo he pushes that button and the aircraft is kept straight and level until the pilot has recovered, he notes.

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The M-346 makes use of embedded virtual simulation technology

Pilots from the Iraqi air force have started training on the services rst two Lockheed Martin F-16Ds, following a US government decision to transfer the aircraft to an Air National Guard base at Tucson Interna-tional airport in Arizona.

Relocated from Lockheeds Fort Worth site in Texas last

month, the rst two production examples had been formally de-livered to Iraqi ownership at the company facility last June.

Iraq has ordered 24 single-seat F-16Cs in the Block 52 produc-tion standard, plus 12 D-model trainers.

Washingtons decision in 2014 to block the transfer of the aircraft

outside of the USA prompted Baghdad to acquire nine second-hand Sukhoi Su-25 ground-at-tack aircraft via Russia, as an in-terim means of engaging Islamic State militants.

Six more F-16s are scheduled to be delivered [to Tucson] over the next ve months, the USAF said on 18 December.

Iraqi pilots begin F-16 training in USATRANSFER CRAIG HOYLE LONDON

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Baghdads lead pair of the type have moved to Tucson

Visit Arie Egozis blog for more about Israeli defence topics:ightglobal.com/ariel-view

DEFENCE


F-35 chiefs return fire on baseless cannon reportingDEFENCE P18

Russias air force has received its rst upgraded Tu-95MS and Tu-160M strategic bombers, following modernisation work performed by airframe manufac-turer Tupolev.

An unspecied number of up-graded Tu-95MS were returned to operational use before the end of 2014. The turboprop-powered type received ehancements to its electronic warfare and targeting systems, Tupolev says. According to the company, a further 20 ex-amples are to be modernised to this conguration by 2016.

Improvements made to the supersonic Tu-160 included the

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A second phase of Tu-160 modernisation work is set for 2016

Upgraded Russian strategic bombers back on dutyFLEETS DOMINIC PERRY LONDON

partial replacement of its avion-ics and weapons systems. Deliv-ery of the rst modied aircraft followed a debut ight in the standard in mid-November 2014.

A second phase of modernisa-tion work for the variable- geometry type is scheduled to begin in 2016, and will include the integration of uprated

Kuznetsov NK-32 engines, ac-cording to a report by Russian news agency Itar-Tass.

Flightglobals MiliCAS data-base records the Russian air force as having current in-ser-vice eets of 58 Tu-95s and 12 Tu-160s, as well as 107 shorter-range Tu-22Ms.

Development work has also started on a next-generation strategic bomber, via Moscows PAK DA programme. Due to be own before 2019, the design is also being headed by Tupolev.

COMPETITION DOMINIC PERRY LONDON

Bids in for Polish helicopter contestAgustaWestland, Airbus and Sikorsky consortia table proposals in pursuit of tri-service deal for 70 multirole rotorcraft

PAYLOAD BARTOSZ GLOWACKI WARSAW

Warsaw signs JASSM weapons dealPolands defence ministry has signed a $250 million contract to purchase Lockheed Martin AGM-158A JASSM weapons for the nations air force. Finalised at Krzesiny air base last month, the deal will equip the services Lockheed F-16C/D aircraft.

Lockheed will supply 40 of the stand-off-range missiles under the contract, with a first batch of weap-ons to be delivered in 2017.

The manufacturer will also provide two instrumented test weapons, plus

inert training rounds, support equip-ment and personnel training.

The Polish air forces fighters will also undergo an operational flightplan upgrade to the M6.5 software standard to enable inte-gration of the JASSM.

Under the terms of the Foreign Military Sales deal, an initial $75 million payment was made by the end of 2014. A further $100 million will be transferred this year, and the remainder of the contract sum paid in 2017.

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The EC725 is in the running, alongside the AW149 and S-70i/B

Three bidders will ght it out in a contest to supply 70 mul-tirole helicopters to Polands armed forces, after Sikorsky back-tracked on its threat to withdraw from the process.

Warsaw on 30 December con-rmed that consortia led by Air-bus Helicopters, PZL Swidnik the Polish subsidiary of AgustaWestland and Sikorsky had all submitted bids to the de-fence ministry.

Responses to its tri-service re-quirement had previously been scheduled for delivery by the end of November, but were pushed

back by one month at the request of AgustaWestland and Sikorsky. The latters PZL Mielec subsidi-ary had suggested in October that it would not table a bid unless Poland altered its terms for the contest, which stipulated the de-livery of a single aircraft type.

The defence ministry says it will examine the competing EC725, AW149 and S-70i Black Hawk/S-70B Seahawk before choosing which rotorcraft will be taken forward for testing. Addi-tional study of the industrial off-sets proposed by the bidders will also be carried out, it says, ahead

of a potential contract award in the second half of 2015.

Shortly before the ministrys an-nouncement, AgustaWestland signed several tentative offset deals with local companies, which it says are worth around 800 mil-lion ($954 million) and will form part of an overall package amount-ing to billions of euros.

AgustaWestland plans to work with Fabryka Broni Radom, Mili-tary Aviation Works No. 1 in d, Military Aviation Works

No. 2 in Bydgoszcz and ZM Tarnw to deliver as many as 50 offset projects.

These include the fabrication of helicopter subassemblies and the design, production and over-haul of weapons and weapon systems for the AW149.

The company says it also will establish a global production and development centre for the 8.3t type in Poland if it wins the deal, opening up global export opportunities.

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DEFENCE


For all the latest news on defence developments and deliveries, visit ightglobal.com/defence

Two critical close air support systems a 25mm cannon and an electro-optical targeting system (EOTS) will both be available and meet expectations on the Lockheed Martin F-35 by 2017, programme ofcials say.

Defending the systems in a 7 January response to what it calls nameless/sourceless/baseless reporting over recent weeks, the F-35 joint programme ofce (JPO) acknowledged one new develop-ment problem for the gun, and some operational limitations for the Lockheed-built EOTS sensor.

Countering a claim that the F-35s General Dynamics GAU-22 gun is unable to be red until 2019, the JPO says it will be deliv-ered when the aircrafts Block 3F software becomes operational. That is now scheduled to occur in scal year 2017, with aircraft to be built during the ninth lot of low-rate initial production (LRIP 9).

The JPO says operators accepted the timeline for the cannon system in 2005, at which point the Block 3F software was supposed to be in-stalled on LRIP 5 aircraft handed over in 2013. However, software

The US Navy has decided to embed its future unmanned carrier-launched airborne sur-veillance and strike (UCLASS) aircraft in the same air wing that operates the Northrop Grumman E-2C/D airborne command and control platform.

Naval ofcials conrmed their decision in a little-noticed direc-tive dated 18 December, which says a new UCLASS unit called the eet introduction team will be established on 1 October 2015, as a detachment to an E-2C/D-equipped airborne command and control logistics wing aboard an aircraft carrier. The latter moni-tors airspace for hostile aircraft

PROGRAMME STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

F-35 chiefs return re on baseless cannon reportingJoint programme office insists General Dynamics design and electro-optical sensor on track for 2017 inclusion

development was subsequently delayed by four years.

In its statement, the JPO con-rms that laboratory tests con-ducted in December identied a minor low-level issue with the software controlling the gun sys-tem, but says this is due to be xed early this year and will have no impact on its elding schedule.

The JPO also countered a Daily Beast report by asserting that the EOTS sensor will enter service with the ability to transmit still im-ages to the ground via the aircrafts Link 16 transmitter. However, it

concedes the system will initially lack several features commonly found on the latest generation of targeting pods, including higher denition video, longer range tar-get detection and identication, video data link and an infrared marker and pointer. Customers will be able to add those capabili-ties in later block upgrades, it says.

As with all development pro-grammes, the F-35 baseline re-quirements dene the starting place for capabilities that will be evolved and upgraded over the life of the programme, says the JPO.

and missiles and directs strike aircraft from the vessel.

While the Naval Air Systems Command has decided to assign the unmanned strike eet to the control of a Hawkeye unit, it has not yet settled on the details of how future E-2 crews will operate alongside the system. As recently

Hawkeye unit to take UCLASS fleet under its wingUNMANNED SYSTEMS STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

as August 2014, the USNs options had also included operating UCLASS aircraft as a standalone unit, or as a detachment to a wing of Lockheed Martin F-35C ghters.

Meanwhile, the future of the UCLASS programme remains un-certain. Boeing, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Lockheed

and Northrop Grumman have been waiting for six months for the navy to release a nal request for proposals for a contract worth up to $6 billion. Last September, Pentagon ofcials put UCLASS on hold, including the programme in a wider review of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance spending.

There has been a long-running debate over the design require-ments for UCLASS. Some mem-bers of Congress have criticised the USN for relaxing a requirement to make the aircraft less detectable on radar, instead limiting the type to mainly performing surveillance tasks in uncontested airspace.

An external pod is used to house the B-models GAU-22 weapon

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Northrop Grummans X-47B set the scene for the $6bn contest

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Can maths solve mystery of MH370s resting place?NEWS ANALYSIS P20

Gulfstream delivered its rst all-new ultra-long-range G650ER business jet to a private owner on 19 December.

Up to this point, Gulfstream had only completed a $2 million ER retrot of a baseline G650.

The G650ER was launched in May 2014, securing US approval ve months later. The $66.5 mil-lion aircraft is the longest-legged production business jet, boasting a range of 7,500nm (13,900km) at Mach 0.85 500nm more than the standard G650, which en-tered service two years ago. This extra mileage allows the type to

connect to more city pairs than its stablemate.

The long distances are made possible by an extra 1,810kg (4,000lb) of fuel carried in the G650ERs wings. Gulfstream has updated the types software for fuel-quantity measuring to account for the added fuel and performance gains.

The G650ERs closest rivals are Bombardiers in-development Global 7000 and 8000, which are projected to have a range of 7,300nm and 7,900nm when they enter service in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Meanwhile, an automatic de-pendent surveillance broadcast (ADS-B) solution by Garmin has been certicated for Gulfstreams G150, bringing NextGen air trafc control compliance to global op-erators of the midsize business jet. The upgrade is being offered at the airframers service centre in Dal-las, Texas. It entails replacing the G150s transponders with the lat-est regulatory compliant units, a universal access transceiver and three antennas.

Garmin is planning to intro-duce an ADS-B solution this year for the super-midsize G200.

Gulfstream ships first all-new G650ERDELIVERY KATE SARSFIELD LONDON

DEVELOPMENT STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC

Passport to success as GE begins engine ight testingPowerplant for Global 7000 and 8000 on track for year-end certification, despite delays

Piaggio Aerospace is readying the rst two Avanti Evos for delivery to their Indian owners this month, following certica-tion in late December by the countrys civil aviation authority.

The announcement comes as joint venture partners AirGo Flugservice and Fractional Jet Eu-rope (FJE) prepare to launch their Avanti-based fractional owner-ship programme.

We plan to buy our rst air-craft in the next few weeks and then launch services in April, say FJE founder and chief execu-tive Chris Moody.

The rst aircraft will be a pre-owned Avanti II, but we plan to add the Evo to the eet as de-mand grows, he adds.

Mainz, Germany-based AirGo already operates four Avantis, which will be used to provide sup-plemental lift to FJE jet card cus-tomers. We have had really posi-tive feedback about the Avanti. Prospective customers are particu-larly drawn to the aircrafts spa-cious [midsize] cabin and low op-erating costs. The Evo will be even more appealing, Moody adds.

The $7.4 million Evo is an upgrade of the nine-year old Avanti II, featuring a revamped and quieter interior, enhanced safety features and increased performance thanks to new

winglets, redesigned engine na-celles, a reshaped front wing and ve-bladed composite scimitar propellers.

Piaggio has secured 16 orders and 28 options for the seven-seat aircraft to date, and plans to produce around 12 of the type this year.

The $7.4 million Evo is an upgrade of thenine-year old Avanti II, featuring a revamped and quieter interior

The Passport engine selected to power Bombardiers in-devel-opment Global 7000 and 8000 business jets has entered ight testing at GE Aviation.

Trials started on 30 December on a GE ying testbed a Boeing 747-100 based in Victorville, California, GE says.

The 16,500lb-thrust (73kN) powerplant remains on track to complete certication by the end of 2015, despite entering ight tests about six months late.

The programme was delayed while GE ran tests of the power-plant in a windtunnel at low alti-tudes, according to vice-presi-dent of business and general aviation Brad Mottier, who briefed journalists on the delay last October.

Bombardier is counting on GE to certicate the Passport engine by the end of this year. The pow-erplant can then join a certica-tion programme for the rst Global 7000, which is scheduled to enter service in 2016.

Since its rst test in 2013, the Passport engine has met or ex-ceeded our expectations, giving

us great condence as we close in on certication, Mottier says.

The Passport replaces the venerable CF34 in GEs portfolio, but with several key new tech-nologies. One is a 1.32m- (52in)-diameter front fan blisk, which is a single component instead of a separate rotor and blades.

The advantage of a blisk is that it minimises the size of the rotor hub, allowing more air to ow around and through the core of the engine to improve fuel ef-ciency. The risk is that the Pass-port will feature the largest blisk designed to date for a commercial aircraft engine.

GE is also introducing a new form of ceramic matrix compos-ites (CMC) in the Passport engine.

The Leap engine series in de-velopment by GE-Snecma joint venture CFM International is the rst to use CMCs inside the core of an engine, with these being made from a silicon-carbide ma-terial, while the Passport is de-signed with CMCs using an ox-ide-oxide material. They will be used to make the exhaust mixer, the centre-body and core cowls.

In ground testing the Passport engine programme has so far accumulated 750h and 300 cycles, GE says.

Bom

bard

ier

The Global 7000 is projected to have a range of 7,300nm

TURBOPROPSKATE SARSFIELD LONDON

Piaggio prepares first Avanti Evos for service entry


David Learmount offers his succinct views on the complexities of aviation safety: ightglobal.com/Learmount

NEWS ANALYSIS

An original geometric ap-proach to the sparse data available about the ight path of missing Malaysia Airlines ight MH370 suggests a nal resting place in the Indian Ocean just outside the far south-western edge of the core search area desig-nated by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) in the southern Indian Ocean.

The Boeing 777-200ER has been missing since 8 March 2014, and no trace of it has been found, despite an extensive multination-al search.

Capt Simon Hardys calcula-tions are based on a combination of data which include Inmarsat satellite communication hand-shake arcs and his expertise in 777 performance calculation, as well as some mathematical re-verse engineering of the naviga-tion geometry known to apply to this ight.

Hardy currently works as a senior 777 captain for a major in-ternational airline. Like other aviators he was distressed by MH370s loss, and his concern that relatives of those on board might never know what hap-pened inspired him to begin a ge-ometric investigation of known navigational facts. He emerged with a set of conclusions that en-abled him to isolate what he be-lieves to be MH370s actual track.

REVERSE ENGINEERINGRather than picking speeds and a route at random and making them t with the [satcom handshake] arcs, I have managed to let the arcs tell us both the speed and direc-tion, and nally a location the exact track between arcs 4 and 6 where it was doing that speed and heading, Hardy says. His reverse engineering involved testing a se-ries of plausible tracks southward

over the Indian Ocean from the 777s last known position, and dis-covering the only trajectory that uniquely matches the ratio of ac-tual elapsed times between the consecutive Inmarsat/MH370 handshakes. He then found that certain known data made sense, when tested against that naviga-tional trajectory. For example, the actual elapsed time between handshake arcs would occur if the 777 was ying at its long-range cruise speed possibly a coinci-dence, but a likely choice by the person directing the ight.

Hardy worked with one key as-sumption: that, once set on this southward cruise, the aircrafts true air speed and its track (based on true north), remained the same. He explains: For the purposes of this purely mathematical/geomet-rical investigation I am making one assumption: that in most scenarios [hypoxia, re, a hidden hand], the track and speed of the aircraft from 2141Z [UTC/GMT at the 4th hand-shake arc] to 0011Z [time at the 6th arc] would be constant.

INFORMATIONHe continues: In order to extract the information from the arcs we have to introduce some what ifs. What if the aircraft crossed the 4th arc at some random posi-tion say Position A [see dia-gram left]? And if it did, what route could it have taken from there? If a series of straight lines are projected from point A through arcs 4 and 5 to different points on arc 6, only one satises the ratio of 1:1.5. That ratio is derived from the 1h between the satellite handshakes at arcs 4 and 5, and 1h 30min between 5 and 6; the actual times for MH370.

Line A shows the only straight line from point A that satises this ratio. If we now measure the distance of the line from arc 4 to arc 5 we will get the distance trav-elled in that hour, hence the

speed required to y Line A: 541kt [1,000km/h]. Using the same elapsed-time ratio between handshake arcs, he says the speeds required to y to random points B and C would have been 428kt and 491kt, respectively.

All these lines appear to be nearly parallel. This is great news, says Hardy, as we can measure the angle of the lines. We nd that they only vary from 188T [track] to 192T. This sug-gests that the aircrafts true track between 2141Z and 0011Z was 190T, plus or minus 2.

The next task again purely using maths was to try to nd out where MH370 actually crossed the arcs, assuming it was ying this approximately 190T

WHAT IF TRACKS BETWEEN THE 4TH AND 6TH SATCOMHANDSHAKE ARCS

Tropic of Cancer

A

C

B

4th ar

c

21:41

UTC

5th ar

c

22:41

UTC

6th a

rc

00:11

UTC

7th a

rc

541kt

428kt

491kt

Not to scale

SOURCE: Capt Simon Hardy

Speeds inbound from ANOKO

601kt

485kt

443kt601kt

S22

S37

S37

S42

S32

S27

Act

ual t

rack

188T

488kt

con

stan

t

SEARCH DAVID LEARMOUNT LONDON

Can maths solve mystery of MH370s resting place?Senior 777 captain believes he has calculated crash site of missing Malaysian airliner


Believe it or not, its safer to flyFEATURE P22

NEWS ANALYSIS

track, starting from a known posi-tion. The last radar contact posi-tion of the aircraft was at 1822Z. Inmarsat-measured beat frequency offset data indicates that the 777 was still on a westerly heading 3min later, and that it had turned southerly by 1840Z, leaving a point somewhere within a 15min window when the turn happened.

Extending the line from just south of Penang [where the air-crafts radar track passed] to the 1822Z position, it lines up within 2 with waypoint ANOKO on the Chennai FIR boundary, Hardy says [see diagram right]. Its route and speed are known from 1722Z until 1822Z, so we can work out a time at ANOKO of 1836Z. This satises the 15min

window so we will use ANOKO as the turn point.

Again using the what if points A, B and C, which are all on the 4th arc as dened by a sat-com handshake at 2141Z, this means MH370 had 3h 5min to y from ANOKO to arc 4. Hardys measurements suggest respective results of 443kt, 485kt and 601kt, with the speed required to cover the distance increasing the more westerly the track is from the start point. As a result, he says, there is only one place where the speed from ANOKO to the 4th arc is the same as the speed from that point to the 5th and 6th arcs.

Plotting a graph of true air speed against longitude using the three speeds derived for the sec-tors from ANOKO to arc 4 and then for the legs beyond points A, B and C, the lines cross at 488kt

100E 105E 110E 115E 120E95E90E

20S

10S

0

30S

40S

85E

ANOKO

SOURCE: Capt Simon Hardy/Inmarsat/Boeing/Google

110 115

Malaysia

Previous search area a

Splash zone position: S38.082 E87.400

Area surveye eyed eye e

1111111111115111151 5511111111111111111155155151555551551111111111111115515555155555111111111111111111555515155511111111111115151151155151511111111111111111515115111511511511111111111155115115111111111151111111111111511111151111111511111110101010101011011010111111111111

ANOKO

MH370 timing (UTC) withcorresponding ringsMH370 timing (UTC) withcorresponding rings

Kuala LumpurKuala Lumpur

Satellite ring derivationRing of locations equidistantfrom satellite on earth surface

AustraliaTr

ue a

irsp

eed

48

8kt

/ M

0.8

4Tr

ack

18

8T

Visible to military radar

Not

vis

ible

to

rada

r

7th

arc

Arc 4 21:41

Arc 5 22:41

Arc 6 00:11

Arc 7 00:19

MH370 TRACK FROM WAYPOINT ANOKO TO SPLASHDOWN

and 91.25E. Using the same logic, if at this point a fourth line is drawn just 5nm west of line C, the speed that ts the equations at this line is 488kt and the true track is 188T, which Hardy sug-gests is MH370s actual track.

VALIDATIONAnother group of aviators, calling themselves the Independent Group and also offering advice for the ATSB team like Hardy calculates the southbound leg as beginning at ANOKO and offers a remarkably similar track, of 187T. As the group reached its conclusions via slightly differing logic, the calculations could be considered to validate each other.

Hardy tests his argument against calculations about where the aircrafts fuel would have been exhausted. If we follow the 188T line to the 7th arc we nd that it meets it almost exactly at

the same place where the fuel cir-cle crosses the 7th arc, he says. We have not used any reference to fuel in the analysis whatsoever, so this meeting of all three lines in one place makes one feel great condence in the result. The 188T track line crosses the 7th arc at S38.528 E87.336.

Finally, he renes his data for variations created by the aircrafts descent. This method gives a splash zone position of S38.082 E87.400. The maximum range cruise [fuel exhaustion] arc also goes extremely close to this point [within 30nm].

Hardy notes: The ATSB [Octo-ber] area of interest extends some 600nm along the 7th arc, but stops 20nm short of where the 188T crosses arc 7, where I be-lieve the aircraft is positioned.

For a more detailed version of Capt Hardys calculations, go to ightglobal.com/MH370

This meeting of all three lines in one place makes one feel great condencein the resultSIMON HARDYSenior 777 captain

The Boeing 777-200 went

missing on 8 March 2014

A multinational search failed to find any trace of MH370

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Imag

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Rex

Feat

ures


COVER STORY

DAVID LEARMOUNT LONDONDespite public perception, 2014 was an extraordinarily good year for aviation safety but the gloom of MH370, MH17 and Decembers AirAsia disaster casts a long shadow over the positive gures

BELIEVE IT OR NOT, ITS SAFER TO FLY

During January, Indonesian authorities have been trying to recover the AirAsia Airbus A320 that crashed into the Java Sea on 28 December

Calendar year 2014 has turned out to be the best 12 months ever for air-line safety, according to Ascend, a Flightglobal advisory service. For many this may seem an unexpected result, given the perceptions created by the high-pro-le losses of two Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777s and the crash of an AirAsia Airbus A320 just before year-end.

Ascends director of air safety and insur-ance, Paul Hayes, reveals that the global air-line fatal accident rate in 2014 was one fatal accident per 2.38 million ights. On this basis 2014 was, narrowly, the safest year ever.

The gures exclude the 17 July loss over eastern Ukraine of Malaysia ight MH17, on the grounds that it was shot down by a guided missile and is considered a war risk loss, not

an accident. Although doubts exist about the status of missing Malaysia ight MH370 (see accident tables), that incident has been in-cluded in the fatal accident rates. If the disap-pearance were, however, eventually con-rmed as the result of a deliberate act by someone on board as many experts in Ma-laysia and elsewhere now believe and if it were therefore excluded from the accident statistics, its absence would make the 2014 gures even more impressive. MH370 was the largest single loss of the year in terms of peo-ple presumed dead as a result of the incident.

IMPROVINGThe previous best airline safety year was 2012, with a fatal accident rate of one per 2.37 mil-lion ights, says Hayes. In the other years since 2010, the fatal accident rate was one per 1.91 million ights in 2013, one per 1.4 million in

ANALYSIS


2011 and one per 1.26 million in 2010. The av-erage for the last ve years is now about one fatal accident per 1.75 million ights.

The 2014 Malaysian disasters, however, have twisted perceptions of airline safety, de-spite 2014 being such a safe year. Ascends 2014 Safety Perception Survey starts by quot-ing an actual newspaper headline fairly repre-sentative of media reaction: As another jet crashes is it safe to y? The study later sums up why this appears to be the perception: The year 2014 will be remembered for the loss of the two Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777s, result-ing in 510 passenger and 27 crew deaths.

Given the strange circumstances sur-rounding the disappearance of the rst 777, which is considered likely due to some form of unlawful interference, and the shooting down of the second, these losses would seem to be more to do with security than safety. Nevertheless, they still would have had a sig-nicant impact on the public perception of airline safety.

The fact is that passengers died in aircraft. Nervous travellers do not distinguish between the causes of death.

Ascends fatal accident rate statistics in-clude all commercial airline ights by jets and turboprops with a seat capacity of 14 and above. Each year Flight International

SEVERAL STUDIES or projects aimed at reducing threats to airline safety are likely to come to fruition in 2015.

In one of these, reacting to the French investigators rec-ommendations in the report on the loss of Air France flight 447 over the South Atlantic in 2009, Airbus says it is prepar-ing to fit deployable flight data recorders with embedded emergency locator transmit-ters in A350s and A380s.

The European airframer says there is more work to do yet, and at the same time there is debate in the industry about how practical this is. No aviation authorities at pre-sent are planning to man-date deployable FDRs (see Feature P32).

ICAOs task force on risks to civil aircraft from conflict zones, set up after the shoot-ing down of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, will almost cer-tainly produce its conclusions this year perhaps as early as February, at the organisations High Level Safety Conference. So far the task force has been exploring how the existing

Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) sys-tem could be better used to share urgent and critical con-flict zone risk information.

Meanwhile, key ICAO part-ners are working on setting up a new centralised system

for the prompt sharing of con-flict zone risk information. However, says ICAO, it will re-main the responsibility of air-lines to decide where they fly.

In 2014, ICAO, with the full backing of IATA and following the loss of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, also set up a task force on flight tracking which should report this year. The organisation wants to de-

flight international - january 13, 2015

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