flexibility for variable renewable energy integration in the ......flexibility for variable...
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Flexibility for Variable Renewable Energy Integration in the Nordic Energy System
Danish & Nordic perspectives
Klaus Skytte [email protected] Head of Energy Economics and Regulation DTU Management Engineering Systems Analysis Division FLEXe workshop 22 September 2015 Majvik Kirkkonummi
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Agenda
■Motivation ■Nordic perspectives ■System integration ■Denmark as case - Energy Concept 2030 ■From technical to realisable flexibility
potentials ■Challenges
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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Motivation
The new electricity systems: From centralised and fossil-intensive systems to sustainable and integrated
Increasing shares of variable renewable energies (VRE)
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Wind production share in DK-West
Total support and integration costs expected to increase Trend to more market integration and need of more flexibility Technological and smart technologies exist. Need for REthinking the
framework conditions to support these + bussines cases Market integration with electrification of gas, heat and transport sectors
⇒Research is needed for analysing the effects of different regulatory framework conditions, both qualitatively and quantitatively
Wind power provided a world record 41.2% of Danish electricity consumption for first 6 months of 2014 The night of Friday, July 10 2015 wind produced 140 per cent of Denmark's electricity consumption
Identify and assess regulatory and technical pathways towards coherent Nordic energy systems in 2050 based on strong interaction between different energy markets that ensure resilience, sustainability and efficiency.
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Global vs Nordic energy-related CO2 emissions
Carbon-neutral scenario (CNS): 85% reduction of (energy- and process related) CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to 1990
IEA NETP senarios
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Nordic electricity system 30 years ahead in terms of CO2 intensity
Nordic CO2 emissions from electricity and heat generation
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Nordic electricity generation in the Carbon-Neutral Scenario
63% RES-E 83% CO2 free
72% RES-E 97% CO2 free
78% RES-E 98% CO2 free
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
6 GW Nordic wind capacity in 2010
40GW of Nordic wind capacity in 2050. Requiring 10 000 new onshore turbines, and 3 000 new offshore turbines We need to install 1GW a year to 2020 (2011 and 2012 were on track), and 1.4GW a year after that.
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Key challenges
Energy Efficiency CCS
Infrastructure Biomass Supply
Electricity system integration
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
System integration
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Hypotheses - System integration
There is a comparative advantage of combining different energy markets, both with respect to flexibility, but also with respect to synergy and economics. The Nordic power market is well functioning despite a few technical challenges. With the right coupling to the underlying national and local energy markets for heat, gas, and transport fuels, enough flexibility can be generated in a cost efficient way and so embrace a larger amount of VRE. Need for a holistic system approach to the Nordic Energy system with flexibility obtained across energy markets with respect to flexibility at the power markets.
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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Energy concept 2030 DK - Scenarios for system development towards a RE-based energy system
Energy Concept 2030 DK - towards a RE-based energy system
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Denmark situated in a windpower area Electricity
transmission
Gas transmission
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Energy strategy in Denmark Political targets:
■ 2020: 50% of traditional electricity consumption covered by windpower (decision supported by 95% of parliament)
■ 2035: All electricity and heat based on renewable energy (Obs. the previous governmental position)
■ 2050: The total* energy supply based on renewable energy *Total energy system incl. transport, industry etc.
Wind power provided a world record 41.2% of Danish electricity consumption for first 6 months of 2014 The night of Friday, July 10 2015 wind produced 140% of Denmark's electricity consumption
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Energy concept 2030 – Towards a competitive energy system based on renewables
Power Gas
Heat
Today 2050
Today Wind Bio Bio+ H2 Fossil
Heating Proces heat Electrical
services (Light, cooling, it, proces etc.)
Transport
Fuel
Energy ressources Energy system Energy services
Bio Wind PV Fossil
• System development towards a fossil free system is analysed
• In wind scenario a sustainable amount of biomass is estimated as the national bio- and waste ressources
Energy Concept 2030 DK - towards a RE-based energy system
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
RE-electricity ressources DK (potential and socio-economic cost of energy 2030 excl. integration)
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
A scenario example towards RE-based energy supply
P2G
HP Industry-
HP
EV/PHEV
HP
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Ressources and cost for fuels (2030 if all biomass is allocated to fuels)
Energy Concept 2030 DK - towards a RE-based energy system
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REg
as p
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K/G
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Fuel production (PJ)
Waste mun.
Energy- crops
Wood
Slurry etc.
Marg. bio etc.
Electrolysis (power 2 gas)
2013 2035 2050 Consumption of fuels (gas+liquids)
Natural gas + CO2 (2035)
Gasoil + CO2 (2035)
Straw
Today primary used for heat and CHP
A significant demand for fuels – biomass is essential for producing high amount of fuels
Fuels demand today would require more than 30 GW extra windpower if power-to-gas should deliver
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Danish case (Energy Concept 2030) - Summing up
Energy Concept 2030 DK - towards a RE-based energy system
The vision is to make the total energy system independent of fossil fuels, and to make it competitive with a fossil reference A high degree of electrification and much more wind- and solar will be essential. A high integration with heat- and gas-system is mandatory to get flexibility and energy efficiency. Biomass to be used for CHP and boiler is the short term solution. The long term solution is to use biomass for fuel production (thermal gasification, anearob gasification) The integration of residues (fertilizer, char etc.) from RE-fuel production is a key activity in a sustainable use of biomass
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Why increase transmission grid capacity?
Motivation for closer grid integration ■ Potential for green generation surplus in the
Nordics ■ Nordic hydro power can act as a very efficient
battery ■ Geographic smoothing effects for variable
generation ■ Resource sharing across regions for back-up
and ancillary services
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Flexibility in transmission Example: Economic and climate effects of increased integration of the Nordic and German electricity systems Hourly modelling: Ex. Germany
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Regulatory framework challenges Market integration and flexibility From passive to active dynamic generation / market actors
■ Act to negative prices at the spot market (day-ahead)
■ Case: Change in market design from 2009: negative prices at NordPool ■ Close down of wind turbines in hours with neg prices = saved costs
■ Active at the balancing markets Close down of wind = down regulation
Case Denmark: New wind turbines gets a Feed In Premium in certain full load hours (depending on size). When down-regulation, the not "used" full load hour with support can be used later.
Case Denmark: Some existing off-shore tenders have no incitements for WTs to be
active in down-regulation. One (Anholt) doesn't receive FIT when negative prices.
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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Managing Negative Spot Prices
Case: Sund & Bælt wind farm – 16. March 2014
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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Managing Negative balancing Prices
Case: Down ward regulation – 9 August 2014
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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Last year with active participation of wind turbines in ancillary service
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Activations where negative regulating prices are below -50 DKK/MWh.
• 25 times • 51 hours
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
From technical to realisable potentials
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Technical potentials Available potentials
TransportGasHeatElectricity
Barriers
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Flexibility potentials
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MW
€/MW
without barriers
incl. present barriers / regulatory setup
with additional incentives
Remove barriers
add incentives
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DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Future Challenges The primary challenge The secondary challenges are to: a) Estimate the potentials and costs of flexibility in the Nordic power market created by the coupling of and increased interaction between different energy markets (electricity, heat, gas and transportation). Estimate the need for flexibility in the future Nordic power market. b) Identify and eliminate regulatory and technological barriers to intensified market interaction. Level playing fields for all flexibility options c) Develop coherent regulatory frameworks and market designs that facilitate energy market couplings that are optimal for the Nordic conditions in an EU context. Regulatory REthinking. Make RE market ready & Make markets RE ready Future market designs and business cases d) Adapt a high-resolution Nordic energy market model covering heat, power and transport for quantification of the impacts of different market couplings, regulatory frameworks and market designs. Estimate the cost and benefits of a coherent energy system framework.
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Identify and assess regulatory and technical pathways towards coherent Nordic energy systems in 2050 based on strong interaction between different energy markets that ensure resilience, sustainability and efficiency.
Flex4RES Flexibility for Variable Renewable Energy Integration in the Nordic Energy System
Nordic Energy Research Flagship project
September 2015 - March 2019
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Thank you for your interest
Klaus Skytte Head of Energy Economics and Regulation System Analysis Division DTU Management Engineering Technical University of Denmark [email protected], http://www.sys.man.dtu.dk/
DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark
Last year with active participation of wind turbines in Day Ahead market.
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Protection against negative spot prices 17. august 2014. • Day Ahead trading resulted in negative spot prices
• Wind production was expected at high level • Wind production considerable lower than
expected • Wind turbines were used actively and did not
stop at all.
Hours