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Five Things Everyone Should Know About Climate Change

David KaroweDepartment of Biological Sciences

Western Michigan University

Tem

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12 warmest years in history: 2002-2012, 1998*

Warming is 10-20 times faster than in at least the last 800,000 years

Since 1900, Earth has warmed ~ 0.8o C

1. Climate change is real, and humans are causing it.

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Temperature difference relative to 1950-1980

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/animations/

- severe rainstorms have become more common

40% increase in southwest Michigan since 1948

Precipitation is a very important component of climate

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1950-1959

At the same time, much of the world has been experiencing more frequent and stronger droughts

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

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1950-19592000-2009

At the same time, much of the world has been experiencing more frequent and stronger droughts

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

mild

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Climate predictions are coming true in the U.S.

In 2011, 10 states had their wettest spring on record

As a result, there was extensive flooding

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2012 was the warmest year on record for the U.S.

Much of the U.S. has been experiencing severe drought

September 2012 77% drought

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September 24: 62% drought

Is the U.S. still in drought?

Three lines of evidence against a meaningful contribution of “natural variation” to current warming

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Since 1900, most of the heat added to Earth’s climate is from greenhouse gasses (GHG)

GHG added ~ 2.98 W/m2

the sun added ~ 0.12 W/m2

1900 1925 1950 1975

Temperature

Solar Irradiance

Recently, while Earth has been warming fastest, solar irradiance has been decreasing

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natural factors only

Models do a good job of replicating past climate change only if they include anthropogenic factors

- natural factors (the sun and volcanoes) would have caused a slight cooling since 1900

anthropogenic and natural factors

observedmodeledobserved

modeled

Best estimate: ≥ 95% of current warming is due to human activities

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In two major ways, current warming is very different than any warming period

in at least the last 800,000 years

1. It’s at least 10-20 times faster

2. It’s happening while solar input is decreasing

Are Americans aware of the cause?

“We’re causing it”

“It’s natural”

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Is there any debate among scientists about whether humans are the primary cause of global warming?

“Most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities."

Scientific organizations endorsing this statement: United States:National Academy of SciencesAmerican Medical AssociationAmerican Association for the Advancement of ScienceAmerican Meteorological SocietyAmerican Institute of Biological SciencesAmerican Chemical SocietyAmerican Geophysical UnionAmerican Institute of Physics

Geological Society of AmericaAmerican Academy of PaediatricsAmerican College of Preventive MedicineAmerican Public Health AssociationNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Aeronautics and Space Administration Environmental Protection Agency National Center for Atmospheric ResearchUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchEcological Society of AmericaAmerican Society of AgronomyAmerican Society of Plant BiologistsAssociation of Ecosystem Research CentersBotanical Society of AmericaCrop Science Society of AmericaNatural Science Collections Alliance

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American Statistical AssociationOrganization of Biological Field StationsAmerican Physical SocietySociety for Industrial and Applied MathematicsSociety of Systematic BiologistsSoil Science Society of AmericaFederation of American ScientistsNational Research CouncilNational Association of Geoscience TeachersAmerican Quaternary AssociationAmerican Association of Wildlife VeterinariansAmerican Society for MicrobiologySociety of American ForestersAmerican Astronomical Society

Europe:European Academy of Sciences and ArtsEuropean Science FoundationEuropean Geosciences UnionEuropean Physical SocietyEuropean Federation of GeologistsRoyal Society of the United KingdomAcademie des Sciences (France)Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher (Germany)Accademia dei Lincei (Italy)Royal Irish AcademyRoyal Swedish Academy of SciencesRoyal Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the ArtsRoyal Meteorological SocietyBritish Antarctic SurveyUnited Kingdom Institute of Biology

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Other countries (≥ 35):Chinese Academy of SciencesScience Council of JapanRussian Academy of SciencesIndian National Science AcademyRoyal Society of New ZealandAustralian Academy of SciencesAustralian Medical AssociationPolish Academy of SciencesAcademia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil)Royal Society of CanadaAfrican Academy of SciencesCaribbean Academy of SciencesAcademy of Sciences of MalaysiaIndonesian Academy of SciencesAcademy of Science of South Africa

Scientific organizations holding a dissenting opinion:

American Institute of Petroleum Geologists

Until 2007:

Since 2008:none

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Are Americans aware of the strength of the scientific consensus?

“Scientists agree”

“Scientists don’t agree”

In fact, 97.5% of climate scientists agree

Has Earth stopped warming?

1998

1997*

1999*

This is a deceptive argument that only works with 1998 (the last Super El Nino year)as the starting point

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What does the future hold?

It depends on our choices

“No fate but what we make”

2o

4o

Depending on choices we make, Earth is likely to warm by

2-5o Cby 2100

“Business as usual”

Alternate energy sources

Actual

2. If we remain on our current course, future climate change will be severe.

5o

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Will a 5o temperature rise matter?When Earth was 5o cooler:

Most summers are likely to be hotter than any experienced thus far

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Most summers are likely to be hotter than any experienced thus far

Warming is likely to cause sea level rise of 1-2 meters by 2100

- up to 300 million people could be flooded each year

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Much of U.S. would be affected by 1 meter rise

Much of Florida would also be under water

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So would much of the east coast

Climate change will also include altered precipitation patterns

Summer Precipitation

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Summer rainfall is predicted to decrease throughout U.S.

2060-2069

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

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- current drought indices will longer work properly

Much of the world is likely to experience much more frequent and stronger droughts by the 2060s

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What will this mean for Earth’s species?It depends on the choices we make

3. If we remain on our current course, there will be serious adverse consequences for most species.

With 2o warming: 2,100 of 5,200 African plant species (40%) are predicted to go extinct

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African mammals are likely to be adversely affected

With 3.5o warming: 55 of 275 species (20%) are predicted to go extinct

Australian Banksia are very dry-adapted species, so will they be “climate winners”?

With 2o warming: 21 winners, 80 losers (5 extinctions) With 4o warming: 10 winners, 91 losers (17 extinctions)

Typical result: many more climate losers than winners

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(images courtesy of Jason Tallant)

Even if suitable future habitat exists, species may not be able to get there in time to avoid extinction

This is the worst time in Earth’s history for climate change

Which species are particularly vulnerable?

1. Species that have nowhere to go2. Species that live in coral reefs 3. Species that live on land in the tropics

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High latitude species have nowhere to go

Most, but not all, polar bear populationsare predicted to decline dramatically by 2050

All decline or disappearby 2100

Alaska

Red = decliningBlue = increasing

All ice-obligate species are highly vulnerable

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In Antarctica, Emperor and Adelie penguins need ice

but Chinstrap and Gentoo penguins nest on land

High altitude species may also have nowhere to go

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All of Earth’s 1,009 montane bird species are predicted to be “climate losers”

Coral reef species are also particularly vulnerable

because both warming and ocean acidification can cause bleaching

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Even 2o warming is likely to cause a massive increase in bleaching events

Acidification alone may make most or all of the ocean unsuitable for corals

- 650 ppm CO2 may cause near total loss of coral reefs

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Low Moderate High

Probability of disappearing climate

Tropical species have narrow temperature ranges, so are very likely to experience “disappearing climates”

Therefore, tropical species are particularly vulnerable

Where do most species live?

What will happen to plants and animals in Michigan?

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sugar maple

At least 20 common tree species are predicted to decline by 50-100% in Michigan, including:

balsam fir

paper birch

eastern hemlock

aspenblack spruce

-97%

-66%-89%

-98%

-67%

-89%

shortleaf pine Virginia pine

sugarberry

loblolly pine

sweetgum

20 southern species are predicted to occur in Michigan

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But forests are more than just trees

Common loon

Blackburnianwarbler

Yellow-belliedsapsucker

Red-breastednuthatch

Evening grosbeak

Magnolia warbler

32 Michigan bird species predicted to decline by 75-100%

White-throatedsparrow

Veery

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15 new species are predicted to arrive in Michigan

northern bobwhite

yellow-billed cuckoo

little blue heron

cattle egret

painted bunting

scissor-tailed flycatcher

summer tanager

Mississippi kite

4. If we remain on our current course, there will beserious adverse consequences for human health.

1. Increased heat stress

2. Increased disease

3. Increased malnutrition

4. Change in air quality

5. Change in frequency and/or severity of conflict

Major ways in which climate change is likely to affect human health:

and/or decreased cold stress

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World Health Organization estimates that climate change already kills 150,000-300,000 people annually

Record hot summers are likely to result in dramatic increases in heat stress

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Chicago 1995-like heat waves per decade

2o C 4o C

For many cities, the number of Chicago 1995-like heat waves (~700 deaths) will increase dramatically

Climate change is likely to increase vector-borne diseases

Malaria: World Health Organization estimates 250,000,000 cases and 1,000,000 deaths annually

- every 30 seconds a child dies from malaria

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+ 2o C

Malaria is generally predicted to increase, but change depends on climate scenario

+ 4o C

With 2-4o warming:

200-400 million more people at risk worldwide by 2080

About 450 million of the world’s poorest people depend entirely on agriculture

- grains provide ~ 2/3 of the total human protein intake

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1950-19592000-20092060-2069

Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

Much more frequent and stronger droughts will decrease crop yields substantially

Future U.S. corn and soybean yields are likely to decrease dramatically

20-25% decrease by 2050

55-60% decrease by 2100

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Coal-fired power plants kill people

2 of the nation’s 10 deadliest power plants are in Michigan

J.H. Campbell

Monroe

Climate change is predicted to increase civil wars in sub-Saharan Africa by 50% in the next 20 years

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Most worrisome scenario: India and Pakistan start a “water war”

- Indus supplies83% of Pakistan’sirrigationwater

Climate change is a major U.S. national security threat

“The effects of climate change in the world’s most vulnerable regions present a serious threat toAmerican national security interests. Washingtonmust lead on this issue now.”

Partnership for a Secure America, February 2013

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Developed countries are causing the problem, but developing countries suffer most of the effects

Countries proportional to CO2 emissions through 2002:

Countries proportional to climate-related health effects:

What can I do to minimize climate change?

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5. We don’t have to remain on our current course. We can change the future by implementing

multiple solutions that already are available.

Stop deforestation: great idea, but not a solution

Energy conservation: great idea, but also not a solution

- really just delays the inevitable

50 mpg

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This can only happen through aggressive expansion of alternate energy sources

Solar Wind

To limit warming to 2o C, we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050

Globally, we generate only 0.2% of our energy from wind,and only 0.1% from solar

Global wind potential is >40 times worldwide use

All 9 highest CO2-emitting countries could use wind alone

23x

183x

18x3x8x

8x3x

30x183x

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e.g. Luddington pumped storage plant

The “intermittency problem” can be solved easily

Solar energy has even greater potential Three main technologies:

photovoltaicssolar thermal parabolic trough

Global potential estimated at up to 100 times current use

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A small portion of the Sahara desert could supply all of the world’s electricity

A solar array 100 x 100 miles could provide all of US energy needs today

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Again, “intermittency problem” can be solved easily

- store excess heat during day, generate electricity at night

solar thermal parabolic trough

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Educate others

Encourage policymakers to make smarter choices

MI 6th District voters will have a clear choice

“… one of the biggest threats to planet Earth on planet Earth.”

LA Times, December 2011

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3.5o C warming

2o C warming

Low Moderate High

Probability of disappearing climate

What would Earth gain by these smarter choices?

Bottom Line:

1. We’re causing climate to change at an alarming rate.

2. If we continue on our current path, the future is very likely to include unprecedented hardships for all of Earth’s species, includinghumans.

3. We can change our path by using smarter choices we have available today.