fit for the future?
DESCRIPTION
Bill Gething, architect and chair, BRE Global Sustainability BoardTRANSCRIPT
Bill Gething: Sustainability + Architecture
Fit for the Future?
October 2010
Specifying Low Carbon Buildings
What future? Temperature: Global Mean – Change ºC
Med(A1B)
High(A1F1)
Low(B1)
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
30% extinction
30% coastal wetlands lost
Shaping the Future? Global GHG Emissions (Gt CO2 eq/ yr)
High(A1F1)
Low(B1)
WorldStabilisation
Scenario
(-4%/ yr from 2016)
2040
160
140
120
8010
060
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Med(A1B)
Hotter drier summers
Wetter warmer winters
Extreme events more likely
Sea level rise
Facing up to a changing climate
Hotter drier summers
Wetter warmer winters
Extreme events more likely
Sea level rise
Facing up to a changing climate
1 2 3 4 5Change in temperature
Pro
babi
lity
of c
hang
e
UK Climate Change Projections A probabilistic approach
Med
ian
valu
e
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC South East
Likely33%
67%
Low
50%
1º C
10%
90%
Very Likely
South East
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC
Med
2º C
Zero Carbon HubRecommended target
South East
01
76
53
42
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC
High
3º C
50%10% 90%10% 90%
2020
2050
2080
+4>5 ºC
Zero Carbon HubRecommended target
+4 ºC
2 ºC (2003)
WinterSummer
2050s Med 50%
Annual
Precipitation + Soil shrinkage
WinterSummer
2050s Med 50%
Annual
Precipitation + Soil shrinkage
Xtra Lo Xtra Hi
ComfortConstructionWater
Design agenda:
Regional variation + geographic specifics Existing stockLow carbon imperative + infrastructure resilienceRobustness/ maintenanceDelight.
Behavioural adaptationTimingScaleCompetition, consensus and regulation.
Tactics:
Context:
Comfort
Keeping warmClim
ate
head
lines
Clim
ate
issu
es &
info
rmat
ion
Tim
esca
le
Keeping cool - internal
Keeping cool - external
Comfort
Keeping warmClim
ate
head
lines
Clim
ate
issu
es &
info
rmat
ion
Tim
esca
le
Keeping cool - internal
Keeping cool - external
Gaps
?
Comfort
Keeping warmClim
ate
head
lines
Clim
ate
issu
es &
info
rmat
ion
Tim
esca
le
Keeping cool - internal
Keeping cool - external
Tran
slat
ion?
Construction
Stability –above ground
Stability –below ground
Fixings and weatherproofing
Work on site
Gaps
?
Materials behaviour
Water
Water conservation
Flooding
Drainage
Landscape
Modern methods of construction
Deep plan
Lightweight walls
Large glazed openings
Flat roofs
Short life, high maintenance materials
Retrofitting comfort
Source: Reyner Banham: The Architecture of the Well-tempered Environment: Kips Bay Apartments, New York, I M Pei 1961
Source: Reyner Banham: The Architecture of the Well-tempered Environment: Lafayette Apartments, Detroit, I Mies vander Rohe 1961
“Designing in” comfort
Local Distinctiveness
Moscow Izmir Sao Paulo Abu Dhabi
Sydney Shanghai Harare
The Eastgate Centre, Harare Mick Pearce + Ove Arup, 1996
Resilience
Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad
Photos: Morley von Sternberg
Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad
Photos: Morley von Sternberg
Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad
Photos: Morley von Sternberg
Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad
http://www.innovateuk.org/_assets/pdf/other-publications/tsb-climatechangereport-0510_final1.pdf
Bill Gething: Sustainability + Architecture [email protected]