fisher funds’ quarterly portfolio review at a glance · novated leasing services to the south...

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FISHER FUNDS’ QUARTERLY PORTFOLIO REVIEW MARKET ENVIRONMENT It has been a solid start to the third quarter with Barramundi’s adjusted NAV* up 8.7% to 31 March 2012. Driving this performance has been the combination of a better global macroeconomic outlook with markets all around the world rallying and great results from the portfolio companies in the February results reporting season. Whilst it has been strong start to the year from an absolute return perspective, Australia has materially underperformed the World index. This underperformance has been even starker over the past twelve months. We thought a comment on what is going on in the lucky country was warranted. Increasingly, Australia has become a proxy for Chinese growth driven by its insatiable demands for raw materials. This has had implications that have reverberated deeply throughout the Australian economy. We have discussed this before but it is worth reiterating. Economic growth in Australia for the past 20 years has been underpinned by a massive increase in the country’s terms of trade. This has translated into higher real income growth. With higher income growth Australian consumers have felt buoyant and, like many in the Western World, have gone on a two decade shopping spree built on healthy income growth topped up with a massive dose of leverage. Whilst timing is a dark art it seems evident that Australia’s terms of trade have peaked. The argument for this is simple and not predicated on a massive slowdown in China’s demand for raw materials but on a supply response that tips the equilibrium price of raw materials towards the marginal cost of production. Economics 101 rules again and tells us that commodity prices will fall. A declining terms of trade will make Australians feel poorer. Add this to Australia’s increased savings rate post GFC, as consumers repair over-geared balance sheets, and PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS SUMMARY AS AT 31 MARCH 2012 Listed Companies % Holding Austbrokers 5.0% Bravura Solutions 4.8% Centrebet Rights 0.7% Credit Corp 6.5% CSG Ltd 2.5% Dart Energy 2.4% DWS Advanced Business Solutions 5.3% McMillan Shakespeare 7.5% McPherson’s Ltd 2.8% Nanosonics Ltd 2.5% Noni B Limited 1.3% QR National Ltd 1.5% Reckon 3.5% Retail Food Group 4.3% The Reject Shop 3.0% ToxFree Solutions 8.7% Treasury Group 2.0% Universal Biosensors Inc. 2.3% WHK Group 7.5% Equity Total 74.1% New Zealand Dollar Cash 20.6% Australian Dollar Cash 4.6 % Cash Total 25.2% FFX Contracts 0.7% TOTAL 100.0% barramundi limited UPDATE 31 MARCH 2012 1 UPDATE 31 MARCH 2012 PERFORMANCE (Including dividends) TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN Three Since Months Inception Barramundi Gross NAV* +8.7% -0.4% Relative Performance S&P/ASX Small Ords Gross Index (in NZD) +14.4% -9.1% Total Shareholder Return* +0.8% -15.9% $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 $0.70 $0.60 $0.50 $0.40 $0.30 $0.025 $0.020 $0.015 $0.010 $0.005 $0 Oct 06 Dec 06 Feb 07 Apr 07 Jun 07 Aug 07 Oct 07 Dec 07 Feb 08 Apr 08 Jun 08 Aug 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 Jun 10 Aug 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 AT A GLANCE NAV $0.76 SHARE PRICE $0.62 Return Dividends per share Distributions Total Shareholder Return* Share Price Mar 12 *Assumes all dividends are reinvested. Excludes imputation credits. **Accumulated performance since inception. WHAT’S COMING UP 2012 CALENDAR DIVIDEND PAYMENT 29 June 2012 YEAR END 30 June 2012 2012 ANNUAL REPORT PUBLICATION September 2012 DIVIDEND PAYMENT September 2012 ANNUAL SHAREHOLDERS MEETING October 2012 SEPTEMBER UPDATE NEWSLETTER October/November 2012 DIVIDEND PAYMENT December 2012

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Page 1: FISHER FUNDS’ QUARTERLY PORTFOLIO REVIEW AT A gLANcE · novated leasing services to the South Australia Government. This is just another example of how it dominates its market niche

FISHER FUNDS’ QUARTERLY PORTFOLIO REVIEWMARKET ENVIRONMENTIt has been a solid start to the third quarter with Barramundi’s adjusted NAV* up 8.7% to 31 March 2012. Driving this performance has been the combination of a better global macroeconomic outlook with markets all around the world rallying and great results from the portfolio companies in the February results reporting season.

Whilst it has been strong start to the year from an absolute return perspective, Australia has materially underperformed the World index. This underperformance has been even starker over the past twelve months. We thought a comment on what is going on in the lucky country was warranted.

Increasingly, Australia has become a proxy for Chinese growth driven by its insatiable demands for raw materials. This has had implications that have reverberated deeply throughout the Australian economy. We have discussed this before but it is worth reiterating. Economic growth in Australia for the past 20 years has been underpinned by a massive increase in the country’s terms of trade. This has translated into higher real income growth. With higher income growth Australian consumers have felt buoyant and, like many in the Western World, have gone on a two decade shopping spree built on healthy income growth topped up with a massive dose of leverage.

Whilst timing is a dark art it seems evident that Australia’s terms of trade have peaked. The argument for this is simple and not predicated on a massive slowdown in China’s demand for raw materials but on a supply response that tips the equilibrium price of raw materials towards the marginal cost of production. Economics 101 rules again and tells us that commodity prices will fall.

A declining terms of trade will make Australians feel poorer. Add this to Australia’s increased savings rate post GFC, as consumers repair over-geared balance sheets, and

PORTFOLIO HOLDINgS SUmmARY AS AT 31 mARcH 2012Listed Companies % Holding

Austbrokers 5.0%Bravura Solutions 4.8%Centrebet Rights 0.7%Credit Corp 6.5%CSG Ltd 2.5%Dart Energy 2.4%DWS Advanced Business Solutions 5.3%McMillan Shakespeare 7.5%McPherson’s Ltd 2.8%Nanosonics Ltd 2.5%Noni B Limited 1.3%QR National Ltd 1.5%Reckon 3.5%Retail Food Group 4.3%The Reject Shop 3.0%ToxFree Solutions 8.7%Treasury Group 2.0%Universal Biosensors Inc. 2.3%WHK Group 7.5%Equity Total 74.1%New Zealand Dollar Cash 20.6%Australian Dollar Cash 4.6 %Cash Total 25.2%FFX Contracts 0.7%TOTAL 100.0%

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UPDATE31 mARcH 2012

PERFORmANcE (Including dividends)

TOTAL SHAREHOLDER RETURN

Three Since Months Inception

Barramundi Gross NAV* +8.7% -0.4%

Relative Performance

S&P/ASX Small Ords Gross Index (in NZD) +14.4% -9.1%

Total Shareholder Return* +0.8% -15.9%

$1.30

$1.20

$1.10

$1.00

$0.90

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AT A gLANcENAV $0.76

SHARE PRICE $0.62

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*Assumes all dividends are reinvested. Excludes imputation credits.**Accumulated performance since inception.

WHAT’S cOmINg UP2012 cALENDARDIVIDEND PAyMENT 29 June 2012

yEAR END 30 June 2012

2012 ANNuAl REPORT PublICATION September 2012

DIVIDEND PAyMENT September 2012

ANNuAl SHAREHOlDERS MEETINg October 2012

SEPTEMbER update NEwSlETTER October/November 2012

DIVIDEND PAyMENT December 2012

Page 2: FISHER FUNDS’ QUARTERLY PORTFOLIO REVIEW AT A gLANcE · novated leasing services to the South Australia Government. This is just another example of how it dominates its market niche

NEW PORTFOLIO HOLDINgDuring the quarter ended 31 March 2012, we introduced a new position in QR National (QRN).

QRN is an Australian rail freight haulage operator, focused primarily on the transportation of coal, iron ore, other minerals and general freight, including containerized freight. QRN also operates and manages the Central Queensland Coal Network (CQCN), under a 99 year lease arrangement with the Queensland state. To support its customer offering the company provides a range of specialist rail engineering, construction and maintenance services. QRN is a key player in Australia’s coal export market providing the conduit to market from Queensland thermal and metallurgical coal mines and has been growing market share in NSW. It is the performance of this coal division that will ultimately drive the value of QRN. QRN offers investors exposure to a unique combination of: (i) a strategically important regulated below rail infrastructure asset; (ii) growth and business transformation potential from the unregulated above rail businesses; (iii) the benefits of greater commercial focus following the company’s privatisation and (iv) a conservatively geared balance sheet.

it’s not hard to see why companies exposed to the domestic economy have found life tough of late. Unfortunately these trends have some way to go before we would be comfortable that market equilibrium has been reached.

Is it all doom and gloom for Australian shares? We don’t think so. The Australian dollar is still near all time highs and in the view of many economists poised to fall providing a boost to exporters; savings rates look to have plateaued so consumption should resume growing in line with increases in income; there is considerable room to ease interest rates and last but not least shares are reasonably priced with at least some of this bad news story already in the market. We remain quietly confident that we can exploit this tougher environment and find companies well positioned to perform despite the economic headwinds Australia faces.

PORTFOlIO NEwSMcMillan Shakespeare has been a standout performer for Barramundi and in the quarter advised the market that it has been appointed as the sole provider of salary packaging and novated leasing services to the South Australia Government. This is just another example of how it dominates its market niche and is precisely the sort of market leading company we seek to own in the portfolio. The appointment to the South Australian Government contract is for a term of six years. McMillan Shakespeare was previously one of a panel of three providers for these services. This is the first time (to our knowledge) a large employer has gone from a panel structure to a sole provider. McMillan stands to almost double its South Australian government customer base (it currently has 60% share) and now has a real platform for growth in this contract.

Retail Food group announced the acquisition of pizza company, Pizza Capers Gourmet Kitchen (Pizza Capers). The Pizza Capers system specialises in the sale of gourmet pizza and related products. Pizza Capers was established by Anthony Russo and Scott Geiszler in the Brisbane suburb of Kenmore in 1996 and since then has grown to 110 outlets predominantly based in South East Queensland but with

outlets in regional Queensland, Victoria, NSW, ACT, South Australia, Tasmania and Singapore.

Whilst acknowledging the risks of this transaction we are supportive of it. We see the merits in entering the Quick Serve Restaurant segment given the opportunities for growth in this larger space and the fact that the stores are based in strip malls and hence are not subject to vagaries of mall foot traffic trends and the “Westfield” factor in terms of onerous rent demands. The transaction is consistent with the Retail Food Group’s broad strategy of multiple retail food franchise system ownership so it makes sense from a strategic perspective. What remains to be proven in our view is the ability of Retail Food Group to grow the concept in NSW and Victoria given the competitive environment in those states. Pleasingly though, Retail Food Group appears to have purchased this growth option for free so any roll out is value accretive to Retail Food Group shareholders. Make sure next time you are in Australia to give it a try!

Reckon announced that it has severed its 20 year relationship with Intuit. This is a major change of strategy for the company and represents a massive inflection point in the investment case for the business. We are still working through the implications and have yet to fully crystallize our view. In short though, from 2014, Reckon and Intuit’s long standing relationship will cease. At this point Reckon will gain access to the QuickBooks source code to power its ongoing offer but will cease to be able to use the QuickBooks brand and will not have access to additional development by Inutit.

We are still satisfying ourselves that the economics of severing ties with Intuit stack up but the company notes the future of its online offering and the Intuit’s differing strategy in this space was a key driver of the decision to terminate. In essence Intuit is running a Xero style strategy online, looking to deliver a fairly simple global solution for smaller businesses that is not particularly customized to any jurisdiction. Reckon’s strategy on the other hand is to continue its Australia oligopoly with MYOB and deliver a heavily customised, rich experience for larger SME’s (if that’s not a contradiction in terms!).

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Page 3: FISHER FUNDS’ QUARTERLY PORTFOLIO REVIEW AT A gLANcE · novated leasing services to the South Australia Government. This is just another example of how it dominates its market niche

cOmPANY NEWSDIVIDEND PAID 30 MARCH 2012A dividend of 1.49 cents per share was paid to Barramundi shareholders on 30 March 2012 under the quarterly distribution policy. The next dividend will be paid on 29 June 2012 - if you would like to participate in the dividend reinvestment plan, please contact our share registrar, Computershare.

COMPuTERSHARE CONTACTPhone: +64 9 488 8777

Email: [email protected]

For managing your shareholding online, please visit www.computershare.co.nz/investorcentre. You will need your FIN number to access the investor centre.

DISCLAIMER: The information in this newsletter has been prepared as at the date noted on the front page. The information has been prepared as a general summary only, and is by necessity brief. Other important information relating to Barramundi Limited and the management agreement with Fisher Funds Management Limited is available at www.nzx.com and Barramundi Limited’s page at www.companies.govt.nz. The above data contains certain information relating to historical performance of Barramundi Limited; fund performance can and will vary, and future results may have no correlation with results historically achieved. This newsletter is not intended to take the place of professional advice and should not be relied upon in forming a decision to purchase shares in Barramundi Limited. Professional financial advice from an authorised financial adviser should be taken before making an investment.

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Last in terms of specific company news we wanted to comment on the poor performance of the Dart Energy share price over the past twelve months. Dart is a global coal seam methane and shale gas junior in which we inherited a position following the takeover of Arrow Energy. We elected to retain this stake given the value we see in Dart’s tenements, the high quality leadership team in place in the business with its demonstrated ability to create shareholder value and the prospect of near term cash flows from its UK assets. We believe these arguments remain as relevant now as they were when we initially received our shares.

Why then has there been so much downside? We think there are three factors driving this. First the failure of one of the company’s assets, Dajing, in China, to yield commercially extractable gas is disappointing given this was a potentially large asset. Second the controversy around fracking (method of gas extraction), which has made many investors wary of the sector. Last, with many of its assets offshore, Dart has fallen prey to the discount that many Australians place on assets that are out of sight and hence out of mind.

Whilst we appreciate the validity of these negatives we do not believe they warrant such a severe price reaction in Dart’s shares.

The Dajing drilling result released in January was disappointing. Despite the removal of this upside option we still see significant value in Dart. Based on discussions with the company we believe that the current equity value of the business is more than covered by just its UK shale assets and related Gas Sales Agreement (GSA) with SSE Energy Supply Ltd (a UK FTSE 100 listed utility). This means that investors today are getting Dart’s Australian, Indonesian, Chinese, Indian and Polish assets for free!

On fracking Dart has advised the market that it does no fracking in its Australian CSM assets. For shale, fracking is the norm and Dart is working with authorities, in the UK in particular, to ensure that its processes are well understood by regulators and that it delivers gas in a manner that is acceptable to the community. On this front the UK

NOTABLE SHARE PRIcE mOVEmENTS IN THE QUARTER (from Bloomberg)

+56% +30%

+30% +30% +24%

bARRAMuNDI lIMITEDPO Box 33549, Takapuna, Auckland, New Zealand. Phone +64 9 489 7074 Fax +64 9 489 7139 Email: [email protected] www.barramundi.co.nz

Environment Agency has carried out a review into fracking processes and has recommended, following a moratorium on drilling at one high profile shale project (not one of Dart’s), that shale drilling and fracking are allowed to recommence.

Last but not least, the reluctance of Australian investors to pay up for international assets is well known. To combat this Dart is proposing, this quarter, to spin its international assets off and list them in Singapore. This will help prove up the value of these holdings.

So we think we see the light at the end of the tunnel … the Singapore listing will help verify value, drilling activity will pick up in the UK and there is movement on Dart’s Australian drill program. To round it out Chairman Nic Davies bought 1m shares near month end. He is a believer.

Carmel Fisher Frank JasperManaging Director Senior Portfolio ManagerFisher Funds Fisher Funds Management Ltd Management Ltd30 April 2012 30 April 2012

Page 4: FISHER FUNDS’ QUARTERLY PORTFOLIO REVIEW AT A gLANcE · novated leasing services to the South Australia Government. This is just another example of how it dominates its market niche

30 April 2012

Dear Shareholder

barramundi limited – share buyback – notice to shareholders for period from 1 February 2012 to 23 April 2012.

This notice to shareholders is issued in accordance with the requirements of section 65(2A) of the Companies Act 1993.

The Barramundi Board announced on 31 October 2011, its intention to continue the share buyback programme of Barramundi ordinary shares.  The buyback period is from 1 November 2011 to 31 October 2012 and is for up to 5,800,000 shares.

In accordance with the requirements of section 65(2A) of the Companies Act 1993, Barramundi Limited advises that between 1 February 2012 and 23 April 2012, it purchased a total of 469,309 ordinary shares at a total cost of $297,406, an average price of $0.63. All these shares acquired under the buyback programme are held as treasury stock and are available to be re-issued.

As the shares acquired under the buyback programme were purchased on-market via an appointed independent broker, the sellers of these shares are not known to the company.

Yours sincerely

On behalf of the Board,

ben DoshiChief Financial Officerbarramundi limited