Fish in the Mekong from a BFP point of view

(by a non-expert, who is really asking for advice rather than trying to tell you

about fish)

Mac Kirby, Mohammed Mainuddin, CSIRO

Cali workshop, February 2008

•• Why am I interested in Why am I interested in

fish? fish?

•• What does the literature What does the literature tell me?tell me?

•• What are the gaps?What are the gaps?

Outline Outline

Why am I Why am I

interested? interested?

•• The BFP considers water The BFP considers water --

food food -- poverty in the Mekongpoverty in the Mekong

•• Fish are a key part of the food Fish are a key part of the food

story and the livelihood storystory and the livelihood story

•• They are linked to the They are linked to the

environment and hence the environment and hence the

sustainability storysustainability story

•• They may be very vulnerable They may be very vulnerable

to expected changesto expected changes

•• The literature didnThe literature didn’’t seem to t seem to

tell me what I wanted to knowtell me what I wanted to know

•• What is the yield of fish, and the What is the yield of fish, and the trend in yields?trend in yields?

•• What is the food security / What is the food security / livelihood impact of that yield?livelihood impact of that yield?

•• What are the likely demands in What are the likely demands in the future?the future?

•• Is the yield likely to meet the Is the yield likely to meet the projected demand?projected demand?

•• What threatens the prospects of What threatens the prospects of yield meeting projected demand?yield meeting projected demand?

•• What can be done to ensure that What can be done to ensure that yield meets projected demand?yield meets projected demand?

•• What are the research gaps (if What are the research gaps (if any)?any)?

Key questions Key questions

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Pro

ductio

n, to

nnes

Total Capture Aquaculture Total - high estimate

Fisheries Fisheries -- yieldyield

•• Very important inland fisheries Very important inland fisheries -- especially capture fisheries especially capture fisheries TonleTonle Sap and rapidly increasing aquaculture in deltaSap and rapidly increasing aquaculture in delta

•• Estimates of yield unclear Estimates of yield unclear -- consumption estimates regarded consumption estimates regarded as more reliable and upper bounds are 2as more reliable and upper bounds are 2--3 x production 3 x production estimates. estimates.

•• However, few trend estimates for consumption.However, few trend estimates for consumption.

•• Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates), but Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates), but maybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years, mainly aquaculturemaybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years, mainly aquaculture

Change in measurements

Preliminary -

advice and rev

iew sought

Production Production

estimatesestimates

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Year

Pro

duction, 000 ton

Other farmed product

Farmed shrimp

Farmed fish

Sea product

Captured Inland product

Production, ton

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Produciton, T

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Production, T

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Production, T

Aquaculture

Capture

Cambodia

Thailand

Laos

Vietnam

Preliminary -

advice and rev

iew sought

Production Production

estimates estimates -- spatialspatial

Capture Aquaculture

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Year

Pro

ductio

n, to

nnes

Total Capture Aquaculture Total - high estimate

Consumption Consumption

CambodiaCambodia•• MRC estimates for Cambodia range from 250,000 to MRC estimates for Cambodia range from 250,000 to

720,000, and have increased in recent times 720,000, and have increased in recent times

•• Upper figure is 65 kg/person/year Upper figure is 65 kg/person/year

•• Other estimates range from 10 to 49Other estimates range from 10 to 49--80 (FAO)80 (FAO)

•• Other estimates have increased recentlyOther estimates have increased recently

•• Is the change in estimates a trend or a change in method or Is the change in estimates a trend or a change in method or data adequacy? (Much the latter for the MRC?)data adequacy? (Much the latter for the MRC?)

Change in measurements

Basin Basin -- 20002000

555515153.13.10.90.9BasinBasin

606035351.01.00.60.6VietnamVietnam

5353991.21.20.20.2ThailandThailand

4242660.20.20.030.03LaosLaos

6565990.70.70.10.1CambodiaCambodia

Per capita Per capita consumption consumption kg/person/ykg/person/y

Per capita Per capita production production kg/person/ykg/person/y

ConsumptionConsumption

m m tonnestonnes

Production, Production, m m tonnestonnes

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

GVP, m

illio

n $

Crop Livestock Inland fisheries

0

500

1000

1500

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Year

GVP, m

illio

n $

Crop Livestock Fisheries Fish - high estimate

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003Year

GVP, million $

Crop Livestock Fish low estimate

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

GV

P, m

illio

n $

Crop Livestock Fish low estimate

Food Food --

livelihoodslivelihoods

Total Thai fish , Mekong agriculture

Cambodia

Thailand

Laos

Vietnam

Fisheries growth Fisheries growth

prospects?prospects?•• Demand will increase due to population increase Demand will increase due to population increase

and diet changeand diet change

•• Expected increase ~ 1 m tonnes by 2020, 3.5 m Expected increase ~ 1 m tonnes by 2020, 3.5 m tonnes by 2050tonnes by 2050

•• Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates), Current growth rate unclear (uncertain estimates), but maybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years, mainly but maybe 0.5 m tonnes last ten years, mainly aquacultureaquaculture

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

All fis

h, to

nnes

Laos Thailand Cambodia Vietnam VCH VMD

Change in measurements

Fisheries growth Fisheries growth

prospects?prospects?•• Evidence of Evidence of overfishingoverfishing in in

TonleTonle Sap and elsewhere Sap and elsewhere --shift in species and fewer shift in species and fewer large individualslarge individuals

•• Yield maintained by Yield maintained by increased effort (classic increased effort (classic fishery development fishery development trajectory?)trajectory?)

•• Capture fishery seems Capture fishery seems unlikely to expand greatly unlikely to expand greatly (except perhaps increased (except perhaps increased effort before a crash?)effort before a crash?)

•• Aquaculture will expand Aquaculture will expand more in delta more in delta -- but what but what about upstream about upstream (freshwater)? Rice(freshwater)? Rice--fish fish systems in Laos?systems in Laos?

Threats and Threats and

growth prospects?growth prospects?•• More flow more fish More flow more fish -- Dai fishery in Dai fishery in TonleTonle Sap riverSap river

•• Expect flow changes (dams) to lead to decline in Expect flow changes (dams) to lead to decline in yieldyield

•• Can we really extrapolate this?Can we really extrapolate this?

•• Process understanding that more flood in Process understanding that more flood in TonleTonleSap (and elsewhere) releases more resources and Sap (and elsewhere) releases more resources and will lead to greater production, hence more catchwill lead to greater production, hence more catch

China

Myanmar

Laos

Thailand

VietnamCambodia

500 km

Luang Prabang

Tonle Sap

Phnom Penh

China

Myanmar

Laos

Thailand

VietnamCambodia

500 km500 km

Luang Prabang

Tonle Sap

Phnom Penh

Flow changesFlow changes

Phnom Penh reachPhnom Penh reach

Increased dam storage for hydropower and increased Increased dam storage for hydropower and increased

areas of irrigated agriculture (one scenario only)areas of irrigated agriculture (one scenario only)

Dry season flows not increased as much as dam Dry season flows not increased as much as dam

development only development only -- water diverted for irrigationwater diverted for irrigation

~ 4m ~ 4m TonnesTonnes extra rice plus hydropower extra rice plus hydropower vsvs impact on impact on

flood dependent ecosystems and fisheries?flood dependent ecosystems and fisheries?

Phnom Penh

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166

Months

Flow, mcm

Observed flow

Calculated flow

China

Myanmar

Laos

Thailand

VietnamCambodia

500 km

Luang Prabang

Tonle Sap

Phnom Penh

China

Myanmar

Laos

Thailand

VietnamCambodia

500 km500 km

Luang Prabang

Tonle Sap

Phnom Penh

Climate changeClimate change

Phnom Penh reachPhnom Penh reach

Increased intensity of wet season Increased intensity of wet season

Greater flood peaksGreater flood peaks

More destructive More destructive -- but also may help preserve flood but also may help preserve flood

dependent ecosystems and fisheriesdependent ecosystems and fisheries

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

0 50 100 150 200months

flow, mcm/mo

Current

Climate change

What can be done What can be done

for future yield?for future yield?

•• Maintain capture fisheriesMaintain capture fisheries–– stop stop overfishingoverfishing

–– stop dams? Probably notstop dams? Probably not

–– stop really bad dams (Pak stop really bad dams (Pak MunMun, , KhoneKhone falls)falls)

–– operate dams for environmental operate dams for environmental flowsflows

–– fish bypass (fish ladder)fish bypass (fish ladder)

–– stop navigation blasting? (key stop navigation blasting? (key areas only?)areas only?)

•• Increase yields Increase yields –– aquaculture only hope?aquaculture only hope?

–– Multi use systemsMulti use systems

–– Local governance issuesLocal governance issues

What can be done What can be done

for future yield?for future yield?

•• Or, Or,

–– build the dams, build the dams,

–– go for growth and go for growth and increasing wealth, increasing wealth,

–– distribute the benefits distribute the benefits

(compensation (compensation downstream) downstream)

–– buy food from elsewhere buy food from elsewhere (is it conclusively proven (is it conclusively proven

that yield declines will be that yield declines will be dramatic?)dramatic?)

–– Monitor declines Monitor declines (attribution problem)(attribution problem)

Research gaps Research gaps

Stop worstStop worst

Manage others (environmental flows)Manage others (environmental flows)

Aquaculture, multiAquaculture, multi--use, local governanceuse, local governance

Opportunities?Opportunities?

Test real extent of flow change threat for the whole Test real extent of flow change threat for the whole riverriver

Threats?Threats?

Fishery growth projection, capture and Fishery growth projection, capture and aquaculture, taking account of sustainabilityaquaculture, taking account of sustainability

Yield meet demands?Yield meet demands?

Whole diet estimates taking account of growing Whole diet estimates taking account of growing wealth & urban shift (changing diet), growing wealth & urban shift (changing diet), growing population and global markets (population and global markets (ieie more studies)more studies)

Likely demands?Likely demands?

More studiesMore studiesFood and livelihoods?Food and livelihoods?

PublishPublish

More studiesMore studies

Consumption trend estimatesConsumption trend estimates

Yield and trends?Yield and trends?

GapsGapsQuestionQuestion