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FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL PRESENTATION SEPTEMBER 18TH, 2019 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY Any use of this material without OCP’s specific permission is strictly prohibited

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Page 1: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019

EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL

PRESENTATION

SEPTEMBER 18TH, 2019

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without OCP’s specific permission is strictly prohibited

Page 2: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT

This presentation has been prepared by OCP S.A. (“OCP”) strictly for discussion purposes, and contains certain statements that are, or may be

deemed to be, “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions set forth in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation

Reform Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, liabilities, strategic, industrial, commercial plans and expected future

financial and operating results such as revenue growth and earnings. They are based on the current beliefs, expectations and assumptions of

OCP’s management as of the date on which they are made in connection with past and/or future financial results, and are subject to

significant uncertainties and risks, which OCP shall not be held liable for. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, risks

and uncertainties arising from the future success of current and strategic plans and future financial and operating results and reserves;

changes in such plans and results; any difficulty that OCP may experience with the realization of benefits and anticipated levels of capital

expenditures for the second half of the year and beyond; the current and future volatility in the credit markets and future market conditions;

OCP’s strategy in connection with customer retention, growth, product development and market position; industry trends; volatility in

commodity prices; changes in foreign currency, interest and exchange rates; international trade risks; changes in government policy and

developments in judicial or administrative proceedings in jurisdictions which OCP is subject to; changes in environmental and other

governmental regulation, including regulatory investigations and proceedings; any natural events such as severe weather, fires, floods and

earthquakes or man-made or other disruptions of OCP’s operating systems, structures or equipment; the effectiveness of OCP’s processes for

managing its strategic priorities; and OCP’s belief that it has sufficient cash and liquidity and/or available debt capacity to fund future financial

operations and strategic business investments. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements contained in

this presentation, and OCP undertakes no obligation to publicly update any of its forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, that

may be made from time to time, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.

This presentation includes OCP’s financial statements which are produced in Moroccan Dirhams (the local currency). For ease of presentation,

financial information included in this presentation is translated into U.S. Dollars, and these translated figures have not been audited. For the

purpose of such translated figures, OCP used the following exchange rate table, which sets forth the year average and year-end Dirham/U.S.

Dollar exchange rates for the following periods:

2

June 2019 June 2018 December 2018

Period End 9,5718 9,50 9,5655

Average 9,599 9,2916 9,3862

USD/MAD

Page 3: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

3

Market Overview

Page 4: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

4

DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL

PRICES IN 1H 2019

Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

DAP FOB Tampa Ammonia FOB Baltic Sulfur FOB Middle East

Evolution of DAP, Ammonia and Sulfur prices (in US$/T)

DAP & Ammonia Sulfur

Page 5: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

5

MORE AFFORDABLE PHOSPHATE-BASED FERTILIZERS AMID PRICE DECREASE

Higher affordability in 2019

Sources: CRU, DAP affordability is a ratio between DAP average FOB prices (Tampa, North Africa, Saudi and Baltic) and the crop prices index (weighted average crop prices).

Less a

fford

ab

leM

ore a

fford

ab

le

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

DAP Affordability Index (base 100 in Jan 2010)

DAP Affordability Index DAP Fob Tampa

Page 6: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Sources: GTIS, OCP6

DAP/MAP imports (MT)

P-fertilizers in Sub-Saharan (MT)

P-fertilisers imports (MT)

DAP/MAP/TSP importsin MT

(10%)

DAP imports in MT

OPPORTUNISTIC INCREASE Of IMPORTS IN INDIA AND THE U.S. PRIMARILY

DUE TO RESTOCKING

1,8

1H191H18

1,6

+15%

1H191H18

3,0 3,7

+23%

1,9

1H18 1H19

2,1

-7%

1H191H18

3,02,5

+18%

1H18

1,2

1H19

1,3

+7%

Economic factors and high inventory level

Recovery of consumption trigged by better weather

conditions

Opportunistic level of imports due to attractive DAP margins

Refill of low beginning stocks and farmer uncertainty due

US-China trade war

High volume in the system due to bad weather and

logistic bottlenecks

Page 7: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

(MT P2O5)

Sources: Estimates OCP, Companies websites, GTIS, CRU

7

DAP/MAP/NPS Phosphate Fertilizers trade Incremental Changes 1H 19 vs 1H 18

INCREASED INCREMENTAL SUPPLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR

0,1

0,6

0,4

0,3

0,1

-0,2

OCP Ma’adenChinese exports

Russian exports Mexico

Addditional supply

-0,1

USA exports

Page 8: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Sources: Estimates OCP, Companies websites, GTIS, CRU

8

CHINESE EXPORTS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER , REACHING 1H 2015 LEVELS

IN A CONTEXT OF VOLATILE RMB

First Half Chinese export evolution

(DAP/MAP in MT)

4,2

2,9

3,63,5

4,1

2019201820172015 2016

6,6

6,7

6,8

6,9

7,0

7,1

7,2

01/19 04/1902/19 03/19 05/19 06/19 07/19 08/19 09/19 10/19

Chinese US Dollars VS RMB

Page 9: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

DECREASE OF FERTILIZER EXPORTS WITH A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO

Source: OCP

9

57%

OCP’s fertilizer export breakdown in 1H 2019In %

Largest global exporter of phosphate fertilizers

Diversified regional portfolio

32%

6%

13%

20%

30%

Asia

Africa

North America

Europe

South America

Fertilizer Exports volumes evolution in 1H since 2012 In million tons

Breakdown of fertilizer exports for 2019: +0.3 MT in Americas, +0.1 MT in Europe, -0.5 MT in Asia and -0.1 MT in Africa

Specialty products representing 30% of total exports

2012 20142013 20162015 2017 2018 2019

NPS and NPK

TSP

DAP/MAP

1,8 1,7 1,61,2

1,9

2,62,3

0,50,5

0,6

0,4

0,50,6

0,5

0,5

0,3

0,6

0,8

1,4

1,3

1,3

0,0 0,1

2,5

3,9

2,3 2,3 2,2

3,1

4,44,1

1,8

Page 10: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

LEVERAGING ON PHOSPHORIC ACID TO CONSOLIDATE OCP’S LEADERSHIP

IN ASIA

10

Differentiation through Acid leadership: In Asia, OCP is the 2nd largest processed phosphates supplier

Sources: OCP, OCP INDIA OFFICE.* Excluding Purified Acid Exports from China

South Asia P2O5* imports in 1H 2019In million tons P2O5

OCP’s Acid export in 1H 2019In million tons P2O5

Total 1.1 MT P2O5

1,0

0,9

0,7

0,5

0,3

0,2 0,2

China OCP JordanSaudi Arabia

Senegal OthersUS

36%

37%

22%Europe

Asian JVs

Asian spot

Others 5%

Page 11: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Softer prices in 2H

amidst lower costs &

extra inventories

absorption

Likely oversupply

concentration in 2H vs.

1H

Sliding Raw material

prices

Low fertilizer prices to prompt higher consumption across all the regionso Replenishment required in the U.S., improving

monsoon in India, improving weather in Europeo Brazil demand as a powerhouse, boosted by China-US

conflict

High inventories in India & the US as deferred supply from 2018 and 1H2019 expected to weigh on import demand in the next 6 months

Additional capacities from OCP, Maaden, Egypt and Turkey to be partially offset by capacities closures in Canada

China :o Weaker local demand o RMB depreciation, coupled with soft Sulfur prices may

decrease main Chinese players’ costs China cut announcement to materialize ?

Softening Raw materialso Expected lower ammonia prices due to additional

capacities (Ramp-up in the US, Russia & Indonesia)o Softening sulfur prices on the back of lower demand

from China & additional capacities in Saudi Arabia & China

Dem

an

dS

up

ply

Feed

sto

ck

11

MARKET DYNAMICS IN 2H 2019

Page 12: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

12

Financial Overview

Page 13: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

13

1.722

1.133

1H 2018

1.562

1.308

1H 2019

2.855 2.870

+1%

273456

589427

883862

1H 2018 1H 2019

142

300

375

186

1H 2018 1H 2019

517486

REVENUES EBITDA

EBIT

Q1

Q2

Q2

Q1

Q2

Q1

30% 31%

EBITDA Margin

In US$m

553610

1H 20191H 2018

+10%

CAPITAL EXPENDITURES

+2%

-6%

Page 14: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

REVENUE BREAKDOWN BY SEGMENT

461

593106 26

-

Volume1H 2018 Price 1H 2019

+29%

1H 2019

-

-56

1H 2018 Pricevolume

-29

1.591 1.506

-5%

Revenue breakdown in 1H 2019

17,0%

21,0%

52,0%

10,0%

Rock

Fertilizers

Acid

Others1

$2,9 bn

ROCK

ACID

FERTILIZERS

Notes: 1include revenue from freight & revenue from Joint Ventures activities

In US$m

526 49035

Price

-72

1H 2018

-

1H 2019Volume

-7%

19,0%

16,0%

56,0%

9,0% Rock

Fertilizers

Acid

Others1

$2,8 bn

Revenue breakdown in 1H 2018

Page 15: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

LIQUIDITY SNAPSHOT & LEVERAGE

15

916

In US$m

Debt Profile Snapshot1 Debt Maturity Schedule Net financial Debt & leverage

Bank

loans40%

Domestic

hybrid bond15%

Internat.

bond41%

Other2

4%

0,30,6 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3

0,1 0,1

1,3

1,0

0,6

1,0

2019 2021 2023 2025

Domestic Hybrid bond

Internat. bond

Bank Debt

Source: OCP

1. USD/MAD exchange rates of 9.5718 as of 30/06/2019

2. As at 30 June 2019, “Other” includes accrued interests, Sovereign guaranteed bank loan, Finance lease liabilities

3. Excluding IFRS16 : 2,15x leverage compares to 2,02in Dec 2018 / Including IFRS16 2,22x leverage compares to 2,10x in Dec 2018

2,02x

2,15x

3.679

4.081

• 2,22x

+11%

Dec 2018 June 2019

IFRS 16

impact 3

158

Page 16: FIRST HALF AND SECOND QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS …...4 DAP PRICES TRENDING DOWN UNDERPINNED BY LOWER RAW MATERIAL PRICES IN 1H 2019 Sources: CRU, OCP Analysis 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

THANK YOU