United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service October 2016

Prepared By

Trevor Miller ndash Deschutes National Forest Fuels Planner

Phone (541) 383-4007 Bend OR

s__________________________ Date _____________

Fire amp Fuels Specialist Report

Lex Environmental Assessment

Bend Fort Rock Ranger District

Deschutes National Forest

2 | P a g e

Background Wildfires are a natural and desirable characteristic of forested landscapes especially on the east slope of the Cascade Range (Agee 1993 Aplet 2003) However in much of the Lex project area the current condition as it relates to fuels and fire are markedly different from historical conditions In fire-adapted forests exclusion of fire (coupled with past management activities) often results in increased density of trees and shrubs proliferation of ladder fuels accumulation and connectivity of dead and down fuels a shift in composition to less fire-resilient species and an increase in the vulnerability of older overstory trees to both fire and insects and disease Quigley et al (1996) estimated that across the inland Northwest the percentage of forests predicted to burn with high severity has increased from 20 to 50 percent from historic to current times Agee (1990) estimated that historically an average of 794000 acres of Oregonrsquos forests burned each year based on studies of the fire histories This has been recently further supported by project scale research by Andrew Merschel in association with the Deschutes Forest Collaborative Project highlighting the true frequency of fire across the Lex project landscape (in press) Decades of fire exclusion insect and disease activity and previous forest management activities have all contributed to increased vertical and horizontal forest fuel loadings which has contributed to recent large fires across the entirety of Deschutes National Forest These large wildfires have burned near and sometimes into communities threatening public safety and damaging private and public property and infrastructure as well as natural resources Typically wildfires have started within forested high country and moved east driven by the prevailing wind patterns toward communities in the Greater Bend and Sisters areas Several recent large fires exhibit this burn pattern (Snow Creek Pole Creek Rooster Rock Two Bulls fires) On-going district projects such as the West Bend Sunriver HFRA EastWest Tumbull and Katalo projects have initiated tree thinning around the City of Bend and surrounding communities in the wildland-urban interface in order to reduce forest fuels restore and protect old growth forests and improve public safety However there is much important work left to do in an effort to not only reduce wildfire hazardseverity but also begin the process towards restoration of fire adapted and fire resilient ecosystems Activities in the Lex project area would expand the work done in the West Bend and other project areas and help meet the goals of the 2016 Greater Bend CWPP and the 2012 East amp West Deschutes County CWPP while providing for improved forest health and forest restoration From a fire and fuels perspective the intent of treatments associated with Alternatives as described is to begin the process of restoring historic forest structurecomposition and landscape patterns of fuels that have been altered by a century or more of anthropogenic inputs such as fire suppression and selective harvest to create forest resiliency in the context of fire as a disturbance Highly resilient ecosystems are better able to survive natural disturbances such as fire insects diseases and climate change (USDA Forest Service 2013b) than less resilient ones Ecosystems are most resilient and resistant to disturbance when they are similar to conditions under which they developed over the long term (Morgan et al 1994) A system in which natural levels of variation have been reduced will be less resilient to change than one exhibiting more natural variation (Holling and Meffe 1996) It was the broad natural range of spatial patterns and temporal variation in those patterns that historically supported forest resiliency In the context of this fuels analysis resiliency is defined as the capability of a forested area to survive a disturbance event specifically wildfire and insect attack relatively intact and without widespread (at the landscape scale) tree mortality By using the term ldquorelatively intactrdquo this definition recognizes that the intent of the proposed

3 | P a g e

treatments is not to ldquofire proofrdquo the project area but to set the area on a trajectory to where natural processes such as fire and insects can play a role in the system without causing large scale mortality In all alternatives the goal is to reduce wildfire severity and extent (in the appropriate historical context) and improve resiliency not remove fire from the landscape

In proposed treatments current forest fuel loadings are for the most part continuous and plant associations are variable ranging from high elevation dry mountain hemlock and lodgepole pine to dense multistoried mixed conifer and remnant Ponderosa pine stands with considerable downed fuels and small diameter understory tree component (Figure 1) This spectrum of plant associations is associated with a similar array of historic fire regimes fire history fuel arrangements and consequently fire behavior Project Design and Measurements The vegetation treatments proposed in the Lex planning area are intended to build resiliency to both fire and disease To improve resilience the Lex project proposes fuelsfire based treatments such as thinning mechanical shrub treatments (MST) piling of fuels hazard tree reduction and prescribed fire These treatments follow the principles outlined in Table 1 while incorporating results of Andrew Merschelrsquos stand classifications When designing the proposed treatments the goal of building resiliency and reducing wildfire severity is balanced with other components of the purpose and need and is guided by the Deschutes Land and Resource Plan (LRMP) and other policy direction as outlined in Appendix C

Principles Effect Advantage Concerns Reduce surface fuels Reduce potential flame

length Control easier less torchingsup1 Surface disturbance less with

fire than other techniques Increase height to live crown Requires longer flame length

to begin torching Less torching Opens understory may allow

surface wind to increasesup2 Decrease crown density Makes tree-to-tree crown

fire less probable Reduces crown fire potential Surface wind may increase

and surface fuels may be driersup2

Keep big trees of resistant species

Less mortality for same fire intensity

Generally restores historic structure

Less economical may keep trees at risk of insect attack

sup1 Torching is the initiation of crown fire sup2 Where thinning is followed by sufficient treatment of surface fuels the overall reduction in expected fire behavior and fire severity usually outweigh the changes in fire weather factors such as wind speed and fuel moisture (Weatherspoon 1996)

Table 1 Principles of fire resistance for forests (Agee amp Skinner Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatments 2005)

4 | P a g e

Figure 1 Varied vegetation types fuel loadings and fire regimes within the Lex project (A) Dense LPP regeneration along strategic roadways (B and C) Heavy dead and down fuels accumulation (D) Remnant old growth Ponderosa Pine amidst late seral ingrowth

A B

C D

5 | P a g e

This specialist report speaks to only the design of fuel treatments Implementing fuels treatments across the project area seeks to maximize opportunities to establish trajectories towards a more natural coupling of pattern and disturbance processes in the historical context while considering biotic diversity and established refuge in the present day system When designing treatments focus was on historical stand types maximizing the allowance of natural fire on the landscape and reducing the homogeneity and connectivity of fuels given the effects of past management practices Fuels specific treatments are discussed below

Description of Fuels Related Treatments

Precommercial Thinning (PCT) Ladder Fuels reduction (LFR)

Precommercial thinning and Ladder Fuels Reduction involves mechanically cutting understory trees less than 7rdquo-8rdquo dbh LFR treatments are designed to reduce ladder fuels thus reducing the potential for crown fire initiation where commercialsilvicultural based activities are unplanned and may include pruning The desired residual stocking of trees under 7rdquo dbh varies and is dependent on the overall stand density and structure Precommercial thinning generally is a more silviculturally based treatment with predefined spacing based on stand type and overarching stand objectives however PCT also effectively reduces the potential for crown fire initiation

Handpiling of Fuels (HP)

Hand Piling consists of piling primarily activity created fuels by hand Completed pile dimensions will be approximately 6rsquo long by 6rsquo wide by 5rsquo in height The amount of piles per acre will fluctuate along with fuel loadings and are expected to occur at a rate of 18 to 24 piles per acre Piles will be burned in the late fall or winter season when moisture levels prevent fire spreading to surrounding areas Handpiling typically occurs where machinery is undesired or slash concentrations do not warrant machine impacts

Machine Piling of Fuels (MP)

Machine Piling consists of piling activity created fuels and in some cases natural fuels utilizing a Grapple Machine MP is planned where concurrent machine operations are planned Where pretreatment fuel loading is greater than 10-12 tons per acre in planned prescribed fire blocks and strategic control units machine piling will incorporate natural fuels and activity generated fuels Completed pile dimensions will be approximately 12rsquo long by 12rsquo wide by 8rsquo in height and will occur at a rate of 6 to 10 piles per acre Piles will be burned in the late fall or winter season when moisture levels prevent fire spreading to surrounding areas

Mechanical Shrub Treatment (MST)

MST consists of mowing brush in and around stands typically to facilitate underburning or as a fire surrogate where prescribed fire is unplanned to effectively rearrange fuel composition in order to reduce flame lengths and associated fire hazard Treatment utilizes eitheror a light tracked machine with a front mounted masticating head or excavator with boom mounted masticating head or a rubber tired tractor equipped with a rotary mower The targeted brush species are bitterbrush ceanothus and manzanita and may include natural

6 | P a g e

regeneration (of smaller diameters) that is not desired for stand stocking Brush and down fuels are included and may occur on up to 70 to 80 of the area within specified units Since generally this is a preparation for underburning if underburning is delayed this treatment may need to be repeated to modify the fuels again

Underburn (UB)

Underburning consists of burning natural fuels and activity produced fuels located in timbered stands Ignition occurs under predetermined weather conditions in order to minimize tree mortality of residual stands Underburning can occur as a sole treatment and in combination with other treatments developed to meet fuel reduction and reintroduction of fire processes objectives Underburning may cause scorch to overstory trees and stimulate the germination of brush seed in the soil Following an underburn it is expected that the scorched needles and branches will add to the surface fuels and brush seedlings will increase the brush component A second burn to reduce the added fuels and the young germinants will be part of this treatment Associated with underburning will be fireline construction Fireline is a removal of flammable materials down to the soil level using a range of methodology from hand tools to caterpillar tractors

Jackpot Burning (JPB)

Treatment involves burning concentrations of fuels during the fall when conditions limit fire creep Burns target high concentrations of 100 hour plus fuels and typically result in partial consumption of concentrations or ldquojackpotsrdquo of fuels

Strategic Roadside Fuels Reduction (ROADFUELS)

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes Roadside treatments will include a combination of ladder fuel reduction piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads

Treatments within Mixed Conifer

Dry and Moist mixed conifer forest are some of the most variable plant association groups on the Deschutes National Forest Therefore it is also variable in associated disturbance regimes (frequency severity and size) Fire behavior and effects to overstory vegetation are strongly related to seasonal drought stress topography existing cover composition and over-riding climatic factors Additionally the relative juxtaposition of these forests in relation to lower elevation dry upland forest influence the composition frequency of disturbance and severity to overstory vegetation Relatively frequent low to mixed severity fires would be expected to occur more often and replacement severity fire to occur more infrequently in these forest types especially at the blended edge with dry forest (Merschel in press) In general large high-severity fires are usually rare events with historical mixed-severity fires an important component in creating landscape heterogeneity and pyrodiveristy Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes and fuels accumulation and arrangement are important characteristics historically the landscape was not dominated by only one or two age classes (Stine et al 2014)

7 | P a g e

Elective removal of large fire tolerant trees and subsequent regeneration and release of shade tolerant conifers has increased the patch size and connectivity of an abundance of dense multistory forest conditions Fire exclusion has allowed these conditions to persist Thus the pattern seen in the Lex mixed conifer types today is largely the result of stand management and fire exclusion (Hessburg et al 2015) The moist and dry mixed conifer forests in the project area currently have a higher potential for replacement severity fires than historically and the effects of replacement fires are uncharacteristic relative to those typical of Fire Regime group III (Table 4) While fire return intervals have not been missed to the same degree as the dry upland forest (Ecology and Management MMC Forests PNWGTR897 2014) fuels accumulation rates in moist forests far exceed those of dry forests due to higher productivity soils This means it takes less missed return intervals to create an uncharacteristic fuel loading and resultant fire behavior A trend towards more fuel fragmentation or lower fuel loads in these forests (a diversity in fuel loading) is a trend away from severe fire and its attendant large patches and high severity Fuel fragmentation does not have to be associated with structural fragmentation or overstory removal but must be associated with declines in at least one of the factors affecting fire behavior reduction of surface fuels and increases in height to live crown as a first priority and decreases in crown closure as a second priority (JK Agee et al Role of fuelsbreaks Forest Ecology and Management 127 (2000) 55plusmn66) To restore fire-related disturbance regimes toward desired conditions in the Lex project area vertical and horizontal fuels must be strategically reduced in appropriate locations Tools available to reduce fuels include thinning toward more natural forest structures mechanical surface fuel fragmentation (piling of natural and activity fuels and mastication) and the ecologically-and socially-appropriate use of planned and unplanned fire

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives affect mixed conifer resiliency within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of mixed conifer within project area rated as low moderate high for wildfire hazard

What is Fire Hazard Fire hazard can be explicitly defined in many ways but is fundamentally the state of the fuels as determined by the volume condition arrangement and location (Hardy 2005) For this reason treating fire hazard must modify fuels in a way that lessens the likelihood of fire ignition potential damage or resistance to control (Evans et al 2011) This analysis assumes that a fuel complex rated low for fire hazard and will not support widespread crown fire and surface fire behavior will be of relatively low intensity under summer like weather conditions better ensuring the capability of a forested area to survive a disturbance event specifically wildfire relatively intact and without widespread (at the landscape scale) tree mortality To rate wildfire hazard the matrix in Table 3 was used (Vaillant Ager Anderson amp Miller 2012) Using this matrix fire hazard is represented as a combination of potential flame length and crown fire activity that the fuel complex will support during 90th percentile weather conditions The 90th percentile weather parameters used in the analysis are described in Appendix B

8 | P a g e

Table 3 Fire Hazard Rating Matrix

Crown Fire Activity

Flame Length (feet) 0-4 4-8 8-11 gt11

Surface Fire Low Moderate Moderate High Passive Crown

Low Moderate

High High

Active Crown

Moderate Moderate High High

Strategic Roadside Fuel Reduction Zone Treatments

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes The proximity of the Lex project area to high value resources such as the Bend Municipal Watershed high recreation areas and the greater community of Bend Oregon make the future ldquouserdquo of natural fire (and its inherent disturbance and associated variation of successional patterns) in the area operationally quite risky In the face of elevated fuel loadings and high landscape connectivity these networks would provide the advantage of breaking large fire-prone landscapes into smaller and more manageable compartments allowing significant benefit for fire management decision space under differing fire weather scenarios (Hessburg2005) These treatments are not intended to stop a headlong rush of a fast moving wildfire (Green 1977) but rather provide a location from which to actively and safely engage in fire management actions in essence compartmentalizing fire spread and management decision space based on current and predicted wildfire drivers The conclusions of Omi (1996) are especially relevant ldquoThere will always be a role for well-designed fuelbreak systems which provide options for managing entire landscapes including wildfire buffers anchor points for prescribed natural fire and management-ignited fire and protection of special features (such as urban interface developments seed orchards or plantations)rdquo

Roadside treatments would include removal of ladder fuels piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads Large woody material would be retained (generally gt8-12rdquo DBH) up to established thresholds as identified in PDCs

9 | P a g e

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives effectiveness of strategic roadside treatments within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of roadside treatment within project area rated as low for wildfire hazard (see above What is Fire Hazard)

Treatments within Lodgepole Stand types

Lodgepole has always been shaped by fire and beetle outbreaks along the eastern slopes of the central Oregon Cascades Episodic regeneration in Lodgepole stands created a multi-aged forest stand structure concurrent with regeneration pulses following disturbance (beetle fire or a combination of both)(Stuart et al 1989) The size and age structure of old stands varies with that disturbance history In much of the lodgepole stand type of the Deschutes National Forest fire suppression has led to abnormally large interconnected areas of heavy fuel resulting from recent and past large scale beetle kills Agee showed the Mean Fire Return Interval for lodgepole to be between 60-80 years Within the available fire record (1980-2014) 52 fires with potential to influence Lodgepole Stands have been actively suppressed at below 25 acres in the Lex project area (Table 7 Figure 6) Treatments are two part in nature First mimicking the spatial effects (as operationally feasible in the context of fire management risk) of wildfire on surface fuel loading in beetle killed stands of lodgepole pine recognizing the importance of high levels of variability in Mountain Pine Beetle and fire shaped ecosystems (Agne 2016) particularly in transitional zones with other forest types impacted by past management actions Second

Figure 2 Roadside shaded fuel break before and after

10 | P a g e

strategically applying treatments in key areas to reduce suppression resistance and interconnectivity of fuels This analysis does not attempt or pretend to suggest that mechanical treatments can fully mimic the process or post forest structure tied to wildfire in frequent fire landscapes However given the many social and fire risk factors in play in the Lex Project area they do provide a surrogate for certain elements of fire effects at the local and landscape scale PDCrsquos incorporating recent post fire surface fuels data (collected from the 2012 Pole Creek Fire) were utilized to best mimic natural processes (Agne MC et al 2016) To indicate how the alternatives affect suppression resistance within lodgepole the following measurement is used

Acres of lodgepole within project area rated as low moderate and high for wildfire hazard

Acres of lodgepole treated to decrease potential rates of spread decrease snag hazard and increase fireline production rates

Maintenance

Sustained alteration of fire behavior requires effective and frequent maintenance so that the effectiveness of any fuel treatment including fuelbreaks will not be only a function of the initial prescription for creation but also the standards for maintenance that are applied (Agee et al 2000) To meet and maintain desired conditions in the Lex planning area multiple entries of thinning mowing andor prescribed burning may be required Fire management personnel on the Deschutes have observed that mowing treatments typically start losing their effectiveness at reducing potential fire behavior after five years In prescribed burn units the interval between burns would depend on pre burn fuel loads post treatment fuel accumulation and post treatment brush response For example in a unit that exhibits high fuel loading a single entry of burning may not sufficiently reduce fuels In this case a second entry within two to eight years of the first may be required to meet desired conditions The maintenance prescribed burning (where applicable) will keep maintain reduced levels of naturally regenerated lodgepole pine white fir brush and accumulated litter through time and best mimic the quantified frequency of natural fire on the landscape Strategic roadside treatments will also require maintenance (hazard tree removal and mastication) through time to remain effective as outlined within AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT Affected Environment- Existing Potential Vegetation Fire Regimes and Fire History

Fredrick Colvilles 1898 report ldquoForest Growth and Sheep Grazing in the Cascade Mountains of Oregonrdquo generally describes vegetation on the eastern slope of the cascades over century ago Colville described ponderosa pine-dominated forests as ldquothe yellow pine forest hellip[in which] the principal species is hellippinus ponderosa The individual trees stand well apart and there is plenty of sunshine between themrdquo Colville describes the upper range of ponderosa pine forests as ldquodenser and often contain a considerable amount of Douglas spruce [fir]hellipCalifornia white firhellip with an undergrowth of snowbrushhellipmanzanitahelliprdquo and the areas dominated by lodgepole pine as ldquosmall thin barked trees easily killed by firehellipset so close together that it is often difficult to ride through them on horsebackrdquo Colville also describes the highest elevation areas adjacent to the Cascade crest as a ldquobelt of black hemlock a usually open forest with underbrush of huckleberrieshellipor wholly devoid of underbrushrdquo Leiberg describes in the 1903 document ldquoForest conditions in the Cascade Range Forest Reserve Oregonrdquo That lsquolsquoFires have run everywhere in the forest stands suppressing the young growth

11 | P a g e

burning great quantities of the firs and filling the forest with a great many small brushed-over tracts in place of the consumed timberrsquorsquo and that ldquoIn many localities the fires have made a clean sweep of the timber and the areas have grown up to brush in other places they have been of low intensity burning 40 per cent of a stand here 5 per cent there or merely destroying individual trees but consuming the humus and killing the undergrowthrsquorsquo Munger (1917) states lsquolsquoIn some stands there is a preponderance of very old trees in fact in many of the virgin stands of central and eastern Oregon there are more of the very old trees and less of the younger than the ideal forest should containrsquorsquo Dodwell (1903) classifies the adjoining Township and Range to the Lex project area as ldquoThe undergrowth is very light consisting of salal and manzanita with small pine The timber consists almost entirely of yellow pine which on the east of the township is of good quality but in the more broken country is small and scrubby It is all open forest with a heavy stand It is of good quality excepting on the high ground where it is somewhat smaller and branchy and mixes with the growth of lodgepole pine Although there is no way to quantify the exact stand conditions and fuel loadings based on any of these qualitative descriptions (eg ldquowell apartrdquo ldquoconsiderablerdquo and ldquodenserrdquo) it is evident that the broad categories described by Colville and others generally represent a diverse spectrum of age groups and successional classes of ponderosa pine mixed conifer lodgepole pine and mountain hemlock plant association groups found within the Lex project area and the greater central Oregon landscape with generally light undergrowth and a prevalence of ldquoYellow Pinerdquo (Table 4)

Table 4 Plant Association Groups and associated Fire Regimes within the Lex project area

Potential Natural Vegetation Groups Acres of Project

Area Fire Regime

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY 943 8 IV

LODGEPOLE PINE WET 5442 46 IV

MIXED CONIFER DRY 1016 8 III

MIXED CONIFER WET 4513 38 III

PONDEROSA PINE DRY 3 02 I

CINDER 13 1 NA

TOTAL 11930 100

The broad plant association groups found in the Lex project area can be further interpreted into historical fire regimes A fire regime is a general classification of the role fire would play across a natural landscape in the absence of modern human mechanical intervention but including the influence of aboriginal burning Coarse scale definitions for five natural (historical) fire regimes were developed by Hardy et al (2001) and Schmidt et al (2002) and interpreted for fire and fuels management by Hann and Bunnell (2001) These five natural (historical) fire regimes are classified based on average number of years between fires (fire frequency) combined with the severity (amount of mortality) of the fire on the dominant overstory vegetation Severity definitions were revised slightly in 2010 to remain consistent with the ongoing LANDFIRE project (Barrett et al 2010) Definitions of the five coarse scale categories are as follows

I 0-35 years Low severity Typical climax plant communities include ponderosa pine eastsidedry Douglas-fir pine-oak woodlands Jeffery pine on serpentine soils oak woodlands and very dry white fir Large stand-replacing fire can occur under certain weather conditions but are rare events (ie every 200+ years)

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

2 | P a g e

Background Wildfires are a natural and desirable characteristic of forested landscapes especially on the east slope of the Cascade Range (Agee 1993 Aplet 2003) However in much of the Lex project area the current condition as it relates to fuels and fire are markedly different from historical conditions In fire-adapted forests exclusion of fire (coupled with past management activities) often results in increased density of trees and shrubs proliferation of ladder fuels accumulation and connectivity of dead and down fuels a shift in composition to less fire-resilient species and an increase in the vulnerability of older overstory trees to both fire and insects and disease Quigley et al (1996) estimated that across the inland Northwest the percentage of forests predicted to burn with high severity has increased from 20 to 50 percent from historic to current times Agee (1990) estimated that historically an average of 794000 acres of Oregonrsquos forests burned each year based on studies of the fire histories This has been recently further supported by project scale research by Andrew Merschel in association with the Deschutes Forest Collaborative Project highlighting the true frequency of fire across the Lex project landscape (in press) Decades of fire exclusion insect and disease activity and previous forest management activities have all contributed to increased vertical and horizontal forest fuel loadings which has contributed to recent large fires across the entirety of Deschutes National Forest These large wildfires have burned near and sometimes into communities threatening public safety and damaging private and public property and infrastructure as well as natural resources Typically wildfires have started within forested high country and moved east driven by the prevailing wind patterns toward communities in the Greater Bend and Sisters areas Several recent large fires exhibit this burn pattern (Snow Creek Pole Creek Rooster Rock Two Bulls fires) On-going district projects such as the West Bend Sunriver HFRA EastWest Tumbull and Katalo projects have initiated tree thinning around the City of Bend and surrounding communities in the wildland-urban interface in order to reduce forest fuels restore and protect old growth forests and improve public safety However there is much important work left to do in an effort to not only reduce wildfire hazardseverity but also begin the process towards restoration of fire adapted and fire resilient ecosystems Activities in the Lex project area would expand the work done in the West Bend and other project areas and help meet the goals of the 2016 Greater Bend CWPP and the 2012 East amp West Deschutes County CWPP while providing for improved forest health and forest restoration From a fire and fuels perspective the intent of treatments associated with Alternatives as described is to begin the process of restoring historic forest structurecomposition and landscape patterns of fuels that have been altered by a century or more of anthropogenic inputs such as fire suppression and selective harvest to create forest resiliency in the context of fire as a disturbance Highly resilient ecosystems are better able to survive natural disturbances such as fire insects diseases and climate change (USDA Forest Service 2013b) than less resilient ones Ecosystems are most resilient and resistant to disturbance when they are similar to conditions under which they developed over the long term (Morgan et al 1994) A system in which natural levels of variation have been reduced will be less resilient to change than one exhibiting more natural variation (Holling and Meffe 1996) It was the broad natural range of spatial patterns and temporal variation in those patterns that historically supported forest resiliency In the context of this fuels analysis resiliency is defined as the capability of a forested area to survive a disturbance event specifically wildfire and insect attack relatively intact and without widespread (at the landscape scale) tree mortality By using the term ldquorelatively intactrdquo this definition recognizes that the intent of the proposed

3 | P a g e

treatments is not to ldquofire proofrdquo the project area but to set the area on a trajectory to where natural processes such as fire and insects can play a role in the system without causing large scale mortality In all alternatives the goal is to reduce wildfire severity and extent (in the appropriate historical context) and improve resiliency not remove fire from the landscape

In proposed treatments current forest fuel loadings are for the most part continuous and plant associations are variable ranging from high elevation dry mountain hemlock and lodgepole pine to dense multistoried mixed conifer and remnant Ponderosa pine stands with considerable downed fuels and small diameter understory tree component (Figure 1) This spectrum of plant associations is associated with a similar array of historic fire regimes fire history fuel arrangements and consequently fire behavior Project Design and Measurements The vegetation treatments proposed in the Lex planning area are intended to build resiliency to both fire and disease To improve resilience the Lex project proposes fuelsfire based treatments such as thinning mechanical shrub treatments (MST) piling of fuels hazard tree reduction and prescribed fire These treatments follow the principles outlined in Table 1 while incorporating results of Andrew Merschelrsquos stand classifications When designing the proposed treatments the goal of building resiliency and reducing wildfire severity is balanced with other components of the purpose and need and is guided by the Deschutes Land and Resource Plan (LRMP) and other policy direction as outlined in Appendix C

Principles Effect Advantage Concerns Reduce surface fuels Reduce potential flame

length Control easier less torchingsup1 Surface disturbance less with

fire than other techniques Increase height to live crown Requires longer flame length

to begin torching Less torching Opens understory may allow

surface wind to increasesup2 Decrease crown density Makes tree-to-tree crown

fire less probable Reduces crown fire potential Surface wind may increase

and surface fuels may be driersup2

Keep big trees of resistant species

Less mortality for same fire intensity

Generally restores historic structure

Less economical may keep trees at risk of insect attack

sup1 Torching is the initiation of crown fire sup2 Where thinning is followed by sufficient treatment of surface fuels the overall reduction in expected fire behavior and fire severity usually outweigh the changes in fire weather factors such as wind speed and fuel moisture (Weatherspoon 1996)

Table 1 Principles of fire resistance for forests (Agee amp Skinner Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatments 2005)

4 | P a g e

Figure 1 Varied vegetation types fuel loadings and fire regimes within the Lex project (A) Dense LPP regeneration along strategic roadways (B and C) Heavy dead and down fuels accumulation (D) Remnant old growth Ponderosa Pine amidst late seral ingrowth

A B

C D

5 | P a g e

This specialist report speaks to only the design of fuel treatments Implementing fuels treatments across the project area seeks to maximize opportunities to establish trajectories towards a more natural coupling of pattern and disturbance processes in the historical context while considering biotic diversity and established refuge in the present day system When designing treatments focus was on historical stand types maximizing the allowance of natural fire on the landscape and reducing the homogeneity and connectivity of fuels given the effects of past management practices Fuels specific treatments are discussed below

Description of Fuels Related Treatments

Precommercial Thinning (PCT) Ladder Fuels reduction (LFR)

Precommercial thinning and Ladder Fuels Reduction involves mechanically cutting understory trees less than 7rdquo-8rdquo dbh LFR treatments are designed to reduce ladder fuels thus reducing the potential for crown fire initiation where commercialsilvicultural based activities are unplanned and may include pruning The desired residual stocking of trees under 7rdquo dbh varies and is dependent on the overall stand density and structure Precommercial thinning generally is a more silviculturally based treatment with predefined spacing based on stand type and overarching stand objectives however PCT also effectively reduces the potential for crown fire initiation

Handpiling of Fuels (HP)

Hand Piling consists of piling primarily activity created fuels by hand Completed pile dimensions will be approximately 6rsquo long by 6rsquo wide by 5rsquo in height The amount of piles per acre will fluctuate along with fuel loadings and are expected to occur at a rate of 18 to 24 piles per acre Piles will be burned in the late fall or winter season when moisture levels prevent fire spreading to surrounding areas Handpiling typically occurs where machinery is undesired or slash concentrations do not warrant machine impacts

Machine Piling of Fuels (MP)

Machine Piling consists of piling activity created fuels and in some cases natural fuels utilizing a Grapple Machine MP is planned where concurrent machine operations are planned Where pretreatment fuel loading is greater than 10-12 tons per acre in planned prescribed fire blocks and strategic control units machine piling will incorporate natural fuels and activity generated fuels Completed pile dimensions will be approximately 12rsquo long by 12rsquo wide by 8rsquo in height and will occur at a rate of 6 to 10 piles per acre Piles will be burned in the late fall or winter season when moisture levels prevent fire spreading to surrounding areas

Mechanical Shrub Treatment (MST)

MST consists of mowing brush in and around stands typically to facilitate underburning or as a fire surrogate where prescribed fire is unplanned to effectively rearrange fuel composition in order to reduce flame lengths and associated fire hazard Treatment utilizes eitheror a light tracked machine with a front mounted masticating head or excavator with boom mounted masticating head or a rubber tired tractor equipped with a rotary mower The targeted brush species are bitterbrush ceanothus and manzanita and may include natural

6 | P a g e

regeneration (of smaller diameters) that is not desired for stand stocking Brush and down fuels are included and may occur on up to 70 to 80 of the area within specified units Since generally this is a preparation for underburning if underburning is delayed this treatment may need to be repeated to modify the fuels again

Underburn (UB)

Underburning consists of burning natural fuels and activity produced fuels located in timbered stands Ignition occurs under predetermined weather conditions in order to minimize tree mortality of residual stands Underburning can occur as a sole treatment and in combination with other treatments developed to meet fuel reduction and reintroduction of fire processes objectives Underburning may cause scorch to overstory trees and stimulate the germination of brush seed in the soil Following an underburn it is expected that the scorched needles and branches will add to the surface fuels and brush seedlings will increase the brush component A second burn to reduce the added fuels and the young germinants will be part of this treatment Associated with underburning will be fireline construction Fireline is a removal of flammable materials down to the soil level using a range of methodology from hand tools to caterpillar tractors

Jackpot Burning (JPB)

Treatment involves burning concentrations of fuels during the fall when conditions limit fire creep Burns target high concentrations of 100 hour plus fuels and typically result in partial consumption of concentrations or ldquojackpotsrdquo of fuels

Strategic Roadside Fuels Reduction (ROADFUELS)

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes Roadside treatments will include a combination of ladder fuel reduction piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads

Treatments within Mixed Conifer

Dry and Moist mixed conifer forest are some of the most variable plant association groups on the Deschutes National Forest Therefore it is also variable in associated disturbance regimes (frequency severity and size) Fire behavior and effects to overstory vegetation are strongly related to seasonal drought stress topography existing cover composition and over-riding climatic factors Additionally the relative juxtaposition of these forests in relation to lower elevation dry upland forest influence the composition frequency of disturbance and severity to overstory vegetation Relatively frequent low to mixed severity fires would be expected to occur more often and replacement severity fire to occur more infrequently in these forest types especially at the blended edge with dry forest (Merschel in press) In general large high-severity fires are usually rare events with historical mixed-severity fires an important component in creating landscape heterogeneity and pyrodiveristy Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes and fuels accumulation and arrangement are important characteristics historically the landscape was not dominated by only one or two age classes (Stine et al 2014)

7 | P a g e

Elective removal of large fire tolerant trees and subsequent regeneration and release of shade tolerant conifers has increased the patch size and connectivity of an abundance of dense multistory forest conditions Fire exclusion has allowed these conditions to persist Thus the pattern seen in the Lex mixed conifer types today is largely the result of stand management and fire exclusion (Hessburg et al 2015) The moist and dry mixed conifer forests in the project area currently have a higher potential for replacement severity fires than historically and the effects of replacement fires are uncharacteristic relative to those typical of Fire Regime group III (Table 4) While fire return intervals have not been missed to the same degree as the dry upland forest (Ecology and Management MMC Forests PNWGTR897 2014) fuels accumulation rates in moist forests far exceed those of dry forests due to higher productivity soils This means it takes less missed return intervals to create an uncharacteristic fuel loading and resultant fire behavior A trend towards more fuel fragmentation or lower fuel loads in these forests (a diversity in fuel loading) is a trend away from severe fire and its attendant large patches and high severity Fuel fragmentation does not have to be associated with structural fragmentation or overstory removal but must be associated with declines in at least one of the factors affecting fire behavior reduction of surface fuels and increases in height to live crown as a first priority and decreases in crown closure as a second priority (JK Agee et al Role of fuelsbreaks Forest Ecology and Management 127 (2000) 55plusmn66) To restore fire-related disturbance regimes toward desired conditions in the Lex project area vertical and horizontal fuels must be strategically reduced in appropriate locations Tools available to reduce fuels include thinning toward more natural forest structures mechanical surface fuel fragmentation (piling of natural and activity fuels and mastication) and the ecologically-and socially-appropriate use of planned and unplanned fire

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives affect mixed conifer resiliency within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of mixed conifer within project area rated as low moderate high for wildfire hazard

What is Fire Hazard Fire hazard can be explicitly defined in many ways but is fundamentally the state of the fuels as determined by the volume condition arrangement and location (Hardy 2005) For this reason treating fire hazard must modify fuels in a way that lessens the likelihood of fire ignition potential damage or resistance to control (Evans et al 2011) This analysis assumes that a fuel complex rated low for fire hazard and will not support widespread crown fire and surface fire behavior will be of relatively low intensity under summer like weather conditions better ensuring the capability of a forested area to survive a disturbance event specifically wildfire relatively intact and without widespread (at the landscape scale) tree mortality To rate wildfire hazard the matrix in Table 3 was used (Vaillant Ager Anderson amp Miller 2012) Using this matrix fire hazard is represented as a combination of potential flame length and crown fire activity that the fuel complex will support during 90th percentile weather conditions The 90th percentile weather parameters used in the analysis are described in Appendix B

8 | P a g e

Table 3 Fire Hazard Rating Matrix

Crown Fire Activity

Flame Length (feet) 0-4 4-8 8-11 gt11

Surface Fire Low Moderate Moderate High Passive Crown

Low Moderate

High High

Active Crown

Moderate Moderate High High

Strategic Roadside Fuel Reduction Zone Treatments

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes The proximity of the Lex project area to high value resources such as the Bend Municipal Watershed high recreation areas and the greater community of Bend Oregon make the future ldquouserdquo of natural fire (and its inherent disturbance and associated variation of successional patterns) in the area operationally quite risky In the face of elevated fuel loadings and high landscape connectivity these networks would provide the advantage of breaking large fire-prone landscapes into smaller and more manageable compartments allowing significant benefit for fire management decision space under differing fire weather scenarios (Hessburg2005) These treatments are not intended to stop a headlong rush of a fast moving wildfire (Green 1977) but rather provide a location from which to actively and safely engage in fire management actions in essence compartmentalizing fire spread and management decision space based on current and predicted wildfire drivers The conclusions of Omi (1996) are especially relevant ldquoThere will always be a role for well-designed fuelbreak systems which provide options for managing entire landscapes including wildfire buffers anchor points for prescribed natural fire and management-ignited fire and protection of special features (such as urban interface developments seed orchards or plantations)rdquo

Roadside treatments would include removal of ladder fuels piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads Large woody material would be retained (generally gt8-12rdquo DBH) up to established thresholds as identified in PDCs

9 | P a g e

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives effectiveness of strategic roadside treatments within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of roadside treatment within project area rated as low for wildfire hazard (see above What is Fire Hazard)

Treatments within Lodgepole Stand types

Lodgepole has always been shaped by fire and beetle outbreaks along the eastern slopes of the central Oregon Cascades Episodic regeneration in Lodgepole stands created a multi-aged forest stand structure concurrent with regeneration pulses following disturbance (beetle fire or a combination of both)(Stuart et al 1989) The size and age structure of old stands varies with that disturbance history In much of the lodgepole stand type of the Deschutes National Forest fire suppression has led to abnormally large interconnected areas of heavy fuel resulting from recent and past large scale beetle kills Agee showed the Mean Fire Return Interval for lodgepole to be between 60-80 years Within the available fire record (1980-2014) 52 fires with potential to influence Lodgepole Stands have been actively suppressed at below 25 acres in the Lex project area (Table 7 Figure 6) Treatments are two part in nature First mimicking the spatial effects (as operationally feasible in the context of fire management risk) of wildfire on surface fuel loading in beetle killed stands of lodgepole pine recognizing the importance of high levels of variability in Mountain Pine Beetle and fire shaped ecosystems (Agne 2016) particularly in transitional zones with other forest types impacted by past management actions Second

Figure 2 Roadside shaded fuel break before and after

10 | P a g e

strategically applying treatments in key areas to reduce suppression resistance and interconnectivity of fuels This analysis does not attempt or pretend to suggest that mechanical treatments can fully mimic the process or post forest structure tied to wildfire in frequent fire landscapes However given the many social and fire risk factors in play in the Lex Project area they do provide a surrogate for certain elements of fire effects at the local and landscape scale PDCrsquos incorporating recent post fire surface fuels data (collected from the 2012 Pole Creek Fire) were utilized to best mimic natural processes (Agne MC et al 2016) To indicate how the alternatives affect suppression resistance within lodgepole the following measurement is used

Acres of lodgepole within project area rated as low moderate and high for wildfire hazard

Acres of lodgepole treated to decrease potential rates of spread decrease snag hazard and increase fireline production rates

Maintenance

Sustained alteration of fire behavior requires effective and frequent maintenance so that the effectiveness of any fuel treatment including fuelbreaks will not be only a function of the initial prescription for creation but also the standards for maintenance that are applied (Agee et al 2000) To meet and maintain desired conditions in the Lex planning area multiple entries of thinning mowing andor prescribed burning may be required Fire management personnel on the Deschutes have observed that mowing treatments typically start losing their effectiveness at reducing potential fire behavior after five years In prescribed burn units the interval between burns would depend on pre burn fuel loads post treatment fuel accumulation and post treatment brush response For example in a unit that exhibits high fuel loading a single entry of burning may not sufficiently reduce fuels In this case a second entry within two to eight years of the first may be required to meet desired conditions The maintenance prescribed burning (where applicable) will keep maintain reduced levels of naturally regenerated lodgepole pine white fir brush and accumulated litter through time and best mimic the quantified frequency of natural fire on the landscape Strategic roadside treatments will also require maintenance (hazard tree removal and mastication) through time to remain effective as outlined within AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT Affected Environment- Existing Potential Vegetation Fire Regimes and Fire History

Fredrick Colvilles 1898 report ldquoForest Growth and Sheep Grazing in the Cascade Mountains of Oregonrdquo generally describes vegetation on the eastern slope of the cascades over century ago Colville described ponderosa pine-dominated forests as ldquothe yellow pine forest hellip[in which] the principal species is hellippinus ponderosa The individual trees stand well apart and there is plenty of sunshine between themrdquo Colville describes the upper range of ponderosa pine forests as ldquodenser and often contain a considerable amount of Douglas spruce [fir]hellipCalifornia white firhellip with an undergrowth of snowbrushhellipmanzanitahelliprdquo and the areas dominated by lodgepole pine as ldquosmall thin barked trees easily killed by firehellipset so close together that it is often difficult to ride through them on horsebackrdquo Colville also describes the highest elevation areas adjacent to the Cascade crest as a ldquobelt of black hemlock a usually open forest with underbrush of huckleberrieshellipor wholly devoid of underbrushrdquo Leiberg describes in the 1903 document ldquoForest conditions in the Cascade Range Forest Reserve Oregonrdquo That lsquolsquoFires have run everywhere in the forest stands suppressing the young growth

11 | P a g e

burning great quantities of the firs and filling the forest with a great many small brushed-over tracts in place of the consumed timberrsquorsquo and that ldquoIn many localities the fires have made a clean sweep of the timber and the areas have grown up to brush in other places they have been of low intensity burning 40 per cent of a stand here 5 per cent there or merely destroying individual trees but consuming the humus and killing the undergrowthrsquorsquo Munger (1917) states lsquolsquoIn some stands there is a preponderance of very old trees in fact in many of the virgin stands of central and eastern Oregon there are more of the very old trees and less of the younger than the ideal forest should containrsquorsquo Dodwell (1903) classifies the adjoining Township and Range to the Lex project area as ldquoThe undergrowth is very light consisting of salal and manzanita with small pine The timber consists almost entirely of yellow pine which on the east of the township is of good quality but in the more broken country is small and scrubby It is all open forest with a heavy stand It is of good quality excepting on the high ground where it is somewhat smaller and branchy and mixes with the growth of lodgepole pine Although there is no way to quantify the exact stand conditions and fuel loadings based on any of these qualitative descriptions (eg ldquowell apartrdquo ldquoconsiderablerdquo and ldquodenserrdquo) it is evident that the broad categories described by Colville and others generally represent a diverse spectrum of age groups and successional classes of ponderosa pine mixed conifer lodgepole pine and mountain hemlock plant association groups found within the Lex project area and the greater central Oregon landscape with generally light undergrowth and a prevalence of ldquoYellow Pinerdquo (Table 4)

Table 4 Plant Association Groups and associated Fire Regimes within the Lex project area

Potential Natural Vegetation Groups Acres of Project

Area Fire Regime

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY 943 8 IV

LODGEPOLE PINE WET 5442 46 IV

MIXED CONIFER DRY 1016 8 III

MIXED CONIFER WET 4513 38 III

PONDEROSA PINE DRY 3 02 I

CINDER 13 1 NA

TOTAL 11930 100

The broad plant association groups found in the Lex project area can be further interpreted into historical fire regimes A fire regime is a general classification of the role fire would play across a natural landscape in the absence of modern human mechanical intervention but including the influence of aboriginal burning Coarse scale definitions for five natural (historical) fire regimes were developed by Hardy et al (2001) and Schmidt et al (2002) and interpreted for fire and fuels management by Hann and Bunnell (2001) These five natural (historical) fire regimes are classified based on average number of years between fires (fire frequency) combined with the severity (amount of mortality) of the fire on the dominant overstory vegetation Severity definitions were revised slightly in 2010 to remain consistent with the ongoing LANDFIRE project (Barrett et al 2010) Definitions of the five coarse scale categories are as follows

I 0-35 years Low severity Typical climax plant communities include ponderosa pine eastsidedry Douglas-fir pine-oak woodlands Jeffery pine on serpentine soils oak woodlands and very dry white fir Large stand-replacing fire can occur under certain weather conditions but are rare events (ie every 200+ years)

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

3 | P a g e

treatments is not to ldquofire proofrdquo the project area but to set the area on a trajectory to where natural processes such as fire and insects can play a role in the system without causing large scale mortality In all alternatives the goal is to reduce wildfire severity and extent (in the appropriate historical context) and improve resiliency not remove fire from the landscape

In proposed treatments current forest fuel loadings are for the most part continuous and plant associations are variable ranging from high elevation dry mountain hemlock and lodgepole pine to dense multistoried mixed conifer and remnant Ponderosa pine stands with considerable downed fuels and small diameter understory tree component (Figure 1) This spectrum of plant associations is associated with a similar array of historic fire regimes fire history fuel arrangements and consequently fire behavior Project Design and Measurements The vegetation treatments proposed in the Lex planning area are intended to build resiliency to both fire and disease To improve resilience the Lex project proposes fuelsfire based treatments such as thinning mechanical shrub treatments (MST) piling of fuels hazard tree reduction and prescribed fire These treatments follow the principles outlined in Table 1 while incorporating results of Andrew Merschelrsquos stand classifications When designing the proposed treatments the goal of building resiliency and reducing wildfire severity is balanced with other components of the purpose and need and is guided by the Deschutes Land and Resource Plan (LRMP) and other policy direction as outlined in Appendix C

Principles Effect Advantage Concerns Reduce surface fuels Reduce potential flame

length Control easier less torchingsup1 Surface disturbance less with

fire than other techniques Increase height to live crown Requires longer flame length

to begin torching Less torching Opens understory may allow

surface wind to increasesup2 Decrease crown density Makes tree-to-tree crown

fire less probable Reduces crown fire potential Surface wind may increase

and surface fuels may be driersup2

Keep big trees of resistant species

Less mortality for same fire intensity

Generally restores historic structure

Less economical may keep trees at risk of insect attack

sup1 Torching is the initiation of crown fire sup2 Where thinning is followed by sufficient treatment of surface fuels the overall reduction in expected fire behavior and fire severity usually outweigh the changes in fire weather factors such as wind speed and fuel moisture (Weatherspoon 1996)

Table 1 Principles of fire resistance for forests (Agee amp Skinner Basic principles of forest fuel reduction treatments 2005)

4 | P a g e

Figure 1 Varied vegetation types fuel loadings and fire regimes within the Lex project (A) Dense LPP regeneration along strategic roadways (B and C) Heavy dead and down fuels accumulation (D) Remnant old growth Ponderosa Pine amidst late seral ingrowth

A B

C D

5 | P a g e

This specialist report speaks to only the design of fuel treatments Implementing fuels treatments across the project area seeks to maximize opportunities to establish trajectories towards a more natural coupling of pattern and disturbance processes in the historical context while considering biotic diversity and established refuge in the present day system When designing treatments focus was on historical stand types maximizing the allowance of natural fire on the landscape and reducing the homogeneity and connectivity of fuels given the effects of past management practices Fuels specific treatments are discussed below

Description of Fuels Related Treatments

Precommercial Thinning (PCT) Ladder Fuels reduction (LFR)

Precommercial thinning and Ladder Fuels Reduction involves mechanically cutting understory trees less than 7rdquo-8rdquo dbh LFR treatments are designed to reduce ladder fuels thus reducing the potential for crown fire initiation where commercialsilvicultural based activities are unplanned and may include pruning The desired residual stocking of trees under 7rdquo dbh varies and is dependent on the overall stand density and structure Precommercial thinning generally is a more silviculturally based treatment with predefined spacing based on stand type and overarching stand objectives however PCT also effectively reduces the potential for crown fire initiation

Handpiling of Fuels (HP)

Hand Piling consists of piling primarily activity created fuels by hand Completed pile dimensions will be approximately 6rsquo long by 6rsquo wide by 5rsquo in height The amount of piles per acre will fluctuate along with fuel loadings and are expected to occur at a rate of 18 to 24 piles per acre Piles will be burned in the late fall or winter season when moisture levels prevent fire spreading to surrounding areas Handpiling typically occurs where machinery is undesired or slash concentrations do not warrant machine impacts

Machine Piling of Fuels (MP)

Machine Piling consists of piling activity created fuels and in some cases natural fuels utilizing a Grapple Machine MP is planned where concurrent machine operations are planned Where pretreatment fuel loading is greater than 10-12 tons per acre in planned prescribed fire blocks and strategic control units machine piling will incorporate natural fuels and activity generated fuels Completed pile dimensions will be approximately 12rsquo long by 12rsquo wide by 8rsquo in height and will occur at a rate of 6 to 10 piles per acre Piles will be burned in the late fall or winter season when moisture levels prevent fire spreading to surrounding areas

Mechanical Shrub Treatment (MST)

MST consists of mowing brush in and around stands typically to facilitate underburning or as a fire surrogate where prescribed fire is unplanned to effectively rearrange fuel composition in order to reduce flame lengths and associated fire hazard Treatment utilizes eitheror a light tracked machine with a front mounted masticating head or excavator with boom mounted masticating head or a rubber tired tractor equipped with a rotary mower The targeted brush species are bitterbrush ceanothus and manzanita and may include natural

6 | P a g e

regeneration (of smaller diameters) that is not desired for stand stocking Brush and down fuels are included and may occur on up to 70 to 80 of the area within specified units Since generally this is a preparation for underburning if underburning is delayed this treatment may need to be repeated to modify the fuels again

Underburn (UB)

Underburning consists of burning natural fuels and activity produced fuels located in timbered stands Ignition occurs under predetermined weather conditions in order to minimize tree mortality of residual stands Underburning can occur as a sole treatment and in combination with other treatments developed to meet fuel reduction and reintroduction of fire processes objectives Underburning may cause scorch to overstory trees and stimulate the germination of brush seed in the soil Following an underburn it is expected that the scorched needles and branches will add to the surface fuels and brush seedlings will increase the brush component A second burn to reduce the added fuels and the young germinants will be part of this treatment Associated with underburning will be fireline construction Fireline is a removal of flammable materials down to the soil level using a range of methodology from hand tools to caterpillar tractors

Jackpot Burning (JPB)

Treatment involves burning concentrations of fuels during the fall when conditions limit fire creep Burns target high concentrations of 100 hour plus fuels and typically result in partial consumption of concentrations or ldquojackpotsrdquo of fuels

Strategic Roadside Fuels Reduction (ROADFUELS)

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes Roadside treatments will include a combination of ladder fuel reduction piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads

Treatments within Mixed Conifer

Dry and Moist mixed conifer forest are some of the most variable plant association groups on the Deschutes National Forest Therefore it is also variable in associated disturbance regimes (frequency severity and size) Fire behavior and effects to overstory vegetation are strongly related to seasonal drought stress topography existing cover composition and over-riding climatic factors Additionally the relative juxtaposition of these forests in relation to lower elevation dry upland forest influence the composition frequency of disturbance and severity to overstory vegetation Relatively frequent low to mixed severity fires would be expected to occur more often and replacement severity fire to occur more infrequently in these forest types especially at the blended edge with dry forest (Merschel in press) In general large high-severity fires are usually rare events with historical mixed-severity fires an important component in creating landscape heterogeneity and pyrodiveristy Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes and fuels accumulation and arrangement are important characteristics historically the landscape was not dominated by only one or two age classes (Stine et al 2014)

7 | P a g e

Elective removal of large fire tolerant trees and subsequent regeneration and release of shade tolerant conifers has increased the patch size and connectivity of an abundance of dense multistory forest conditions Fire exclusion has allowed these conditions to persist Thus the pattern seen in the Lex mixed conifer types today is largely the result of stand management and fire exclusion (Hessburg et al 2015) The moist and dry mixed conifer forests in the project area currently have a higher potential for replacement severity fires than historically and the effects of replacement fires are uncharacteristic relative to those typical of Fire Regime group III (Table 4) While fire return intervals have not been missed to the same degree as the dry upland forest (Ecology and Management MMC Forests PNWGTR897 2014) fuels accumulation rates in moist forests far exceed those of dry forests due to higher productivity soils This means it takes less missed return intervals to create an uncharacteristic fuel loading and resultant fire behavior A trend towards more fuel fragmentation or lower fuel loads in these forests (a diversity in fuel loading) is a trend away from severe fire and its attendant large patches and high severity Fuel fragmentation does not have to be associated with structural fragmentation or overstory removal but must be associated with declines in at least one of the factors affecting fire behavior reduction of surface fuels and increases in height to live crown as a first priority and decreases in crown closure as a second priority (JK Agee et al Role of fuelsbreaks Forest Ecology and Management 127 (2000) 55plusmn66) To restore fire-related disturbance regimes toward desired conditions in the Lex project area vertical and horizontal fuels must be strategically reduced in appropriate locations Tools available to reduce fuels include thinning toward more natural forest structures mechanical surface fuel fragmentation (piling of natural and activity fuels and mastication) and the ecologically-and socially-appropriate use of planned and unplanned fire

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives affect mixed conifer resiliency within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of mixed conifer within project area rated as low moderate high for wildfire hazard

What is Fire Hazard Fire hazard can be explicitly defined in many ways but is fundamentally the state of the fuels as determined by the volume condition arrangement and location (Hardy 2005) For this reason treating fire hazard must modify fuels in a way that lessens the likelihood of fire ignition potential damage or resistance to control (Evans et al 2011) This analysis assumes that a fuel complex rated low for fire hazard and will not support widespread crown fire and surface fire behavior will be of relatively low intensity under summer like weather conditions better ensuring the capability of a forested area to survive a disturbance event specifically wildfire relatively intact and without widespread (at the landscape scale) tree mortality To rate wildfire hazard the matrix in Table 3 was used (Vaillant Ager Anderson amp Miller 2012) Using this matrix fire hazard is represented as a combination of potential flame length and crown fire activity that the fuel complex will support during 90th percentile weather conditions The 90th percentile weather parameters used in the analysis are described in Appendix B

8 | P a g e

Table 3 Fire Hazard Rating Matrix

Crown Fire Activity

Flame Length (feet) 0-4 4-8 8-11 gt11

Surface Fire Low Moderate Moderate High Passive Crown

Low Moderate

High High

Active Crown

Moderate Moderate High High

Strategic Roadside Fuel Reduction Zone Treatments

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes The proximity of the Lex project area to high value resources such as the Bend Municipal Watershed high recreation areas and the greater community of Bend Oregon make the future ldquouserdquo of natural fire (and its inherent disturbance and associated variation of successional patterns) in the area operationally quite risky In the face of elevated fuel loadings and high landscape connectivity these networks would provide the advantage of breaking large fire-prone landscapes into smaller and more manageable compartments allowing significant benefit for fire management decision space under differing fire weather scenarios (Hessburg2005) These treatments are not intended to stop a headlong rush of a fast moving wildfire (Green 1977) but rather provide a location from which to actively and safely engage in fire management actions in essence compartmentalizing fire spread and management decision space based on current and predicted wildfire drivers The conclusions of Omi (1996) are especially relevant ldquoThere will always be a role for well-designed fuelbreak systems which provide options for managing entire landscapes including wildfire buffers anchor points for prescribed natural fire and management-ignited fire and protection of special features (such as urban interface developments seed orchards or plantations)rdquo

Roadside treatments would include removal of ladder fuels piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads Large woody material would be retained (generally gt8-12rdquo DBH) up to established thresholds as identified in PDCs

9 | P a g e

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives effectiveness of strategic roadside treatments within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of roadside treatment within project area rated as low for wildfire hazard (see above What is Fire Hazard)

Treatments within Lodgepole Stand types

Lodgepole has always been shaped by fire and beetle outbreaks along the eastern slopes of the central Oregon Cascades Episodic regeneration in Lodgepole stands created a multi-aged forest stand structure concurrent with regeneration pulses following disturbance (beetle fire or a combination of both)(Stuart et al 1989) The size and age structure of old stands varies with that disturbance history In much of the lodgepole stand type of the Deschutes National Forest fire suppression has led to abnormally large interconnected areas of heavy fuel resulting from recent and past large scale beetle kills Agee showed the Mean Fire Return Interval for lodgepole to be between 60-80 years Within the available fire record (1980-2014) 52 fires with potential to influence Lodgepole Stands have been actively suppressed at below 25 acres in the Lex project area (Table 7 Figure 6) Treatments are two part in nature First mimicking the spatial effects (as operationally feasible in the context of fire management risk) of wildfire on surface fuel loading in beetle killed stands of lodgepole pine recognizing the importance of high levels of variability in Mountain Pine Beetle and fire shaped ecosystems (Agne 2016) particularly in transitional zones with other forest types impacted by past management actions Second

Figure 2 Roadside shaded fuel break before and after

10 | P a g e

strategically applying treatments in key areas to reduce suppression resistance and interconnectivity of fuels This analysis does not attempt or pretend to suggest that mechanical treatments can fully mimic the process or post forest structure tied to wildfire in frequent fire landscapes However given the many social and fire risk factors in play in the Lex Project area they do provide a surrogate for certain elements of fire effects at the local and landscape scale PDCrsquos incorporating recent post fire surface fuels data (collected from the 2012 Pole Creek Fire) were utilized to best mimic natural processes (Agne MC et al 2016) To indicate how the alternatives affect suppression resistance within lodgepole the following measurement is used

Acres of lodgepole within project area rated as low moderate and high for wildfire hazard

Acres of lodgepole treated to decrease potential rates of spread decrease snag hazard and increase fireline production rates

Maintenance

Sustained alteration of fire behavior requires effective and frequent maintenance so that the effectiveness of any fuel treatment including fuelbreaks will not be only a function of the initial prescription for creation but also the standards for maintenance that are applied (Agee et al 2000) To meet and maintain desired conditions in the Lex planning area multiple entries of thinning mowing andor prescribed burning may be required Fire management personnel on the Deschutes have observed that mowing treatments typically start losing their effectiveness at reducing potential fire behavior after five years In prescribed burn units the interval between burns would depend on pre burn fuel loads post treatment fuel accumulation and post treatment brush response For example in a unit that exhibits high fuel loading a single entry of burning may not sufficiently reduce fuels In this case a second entry within two to eight years of the first may be required to meet desired conditions The maintenance prescribed burning (where applicable) will keep maintain reduced levels of naturally regenerated lodgepole pine white fir brush and accumulated litter through time and best mimic the quantified frequency of natural fire on the landscape Strategic roadside treatments will also require maintenance (hazard tree removal and mastication) through time to remain effective as outlined within AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT Affected Environment- Existing Potential Vegetation Fire Regimes and Fire History

Fredrick Colvilles 1898 report ldquoForest Growth and Sheep Grazing in the Cascade Mountains of Oregonrdquo generally describes vegetation on the eastern slope of the cascades over century ago Colville described ponderosa pine-dominated forests as ldquothe yellow pine forest hellip[in which] the principal species is hellippinus ponderosa The individual trees stand well apart and there is plenty of sunshine between themrdquo Colville describes the upper range of ponderosa pine forests as ldquodenser and often contain a considerable amount of Douglas spruce [fir]hellipCalifornia white firhellip with an undergrowth of snowbrushhellipmanzanitahelliprdquo and the areas dominated by lodgepole pine as ldquosmall thin barked trees easily killed by firehellipset so close together that it is often difficult to ride through them on horsebackrdquo Colville also describes the highest elevation areas adjacent to the Cascade crest as a ldquobelt of black hemlock a usually open forest with underbrush of huckleberrieshellipor wholly devoid of underbrushrdquo Leiberg describes in the 1903 document ldquoForest conditions in the Cascade Range Forest Reserve Oregonrdquo That lsquolsquoFires have run everywhere in the forest stands suppressing the young growth

11 | P a g e

burning great quantities of the firs and filling the forest with a great many small brushed-over tracts in place of the consumed timberrsquorsquo and that ldquoIn many localities the fires have made a clean sweep of the timber and the areas have grown up to brush in other places they have been of low intensity burning 40 per cent of a stand here 5 per cent there or merely destroying individual trees but consuming the humus and killing the undergrowthrsquorsquo Munger (1917) states lsquolsquoIn some stands there is a preponderance of very old trees in fact in many of the virgin stands of central and eastern Oregon there are more of the very old trees and less of the younger than the ideal forest should containrsquorsquo Dodwell (1903) classifies the adjoining Township and Range to the Lex project area as ldquoThe undergrowth is very light consisting of salal and manzanita with small pine The timber consists almost entirely of yellow pine which on the east of the township is of good quality but in the more broken country is small and scrubby It is all open forest with a heavy stand It is of good quality excepting on the high ground where it is somewhat smaller and branchy and mixes with the growth of lodgepole pine Although there is no way to quantify the exact stand conditions and fuel loadings based on any of these qualitative descriptions (eg ldquowell apartrdquo ldquoconsiderablerdquo and ldquodenserrdquo) it is evident that the broad categories described by Colville and others generally represent a diverse spectrum of age groups and successional classes of ponderosa pine mixed conifer lodgepole pine and mountain hemlock plant association groups found within the Lex project area and the greater central Oregon landscape with generally light undergrowth and a prevalence of ldquoYellow Pinerdquo (Table 4)

Table 4 Plant Association Groups and associated Fire Regimes within the Lex project area

Potential Natural Vegetation Groups Acres of Project

Area Fire Regime

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY 943 8 IV

LODGEPOLE PINE WET 5442 46 IV

MIXED CONIFER DRY 1016 8 III

MIXED CONIFER WET 4513 38 III

PONDEROSA PINE DRY 3 02 I

CINDER 13 1 NA

TOTAL 11930 100

The broad plant association groups found in the Lex project area can be further interpreted into historical fire regimes A fire regime is a general classification of the role fire would play across a natural landscape in the absence of modern human mechanical intervention but including the influence of aboriginal burning Coarse scale definitions for five natural (historical) fire regimes were developed by Hardy et al (2001) and Schmidt et al (2002) and interpreted for fire and fuels management by Hann and Bunnell (2001) These five natural (historical) fire regimes are classified based on average number of years between fires (fire frequency) combined with the severity (amount of mortality) of the fire on the dominant overstory vegetation Severity definitions were revised slightly in 2010 to remain consistent with the ongoing LANDFIRE project (Barrett et al 2010) Definitions of the five coarse scale categories are as follows

I 0-35 years Low severity Typical climax plant communities include ponderosa pine eastsidedry Douglas-fir pine-oak woodlands Jeffery pine on serpentine soils oak woodlands and very dry white fir Large stand-replacing fire can occur under certain weather conditions but are rare events (ie every 200+ years)

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

4 | P a g e

Figure 1 Varied vegetation types fuel loadings and fire regimes within the Lex project (A) Dense LPP regeneration along strategic roadways (B and C) Heavy dead and down fuels accumulation (D) Remnant old growth Ponderosa Pine amidst late seral ingrowth

A B

C D

5 | P a g e

This specialist report speaks to only the design of fuel treatments Implementing fuels treatments across the project area seeks to maximize opportunities to establish trajectories towards a more natural coupling of pattern and disturbance processes in the historical context while considering biotic diversity and established refuge in the present day system When designing treatments focus was on historical stand types maximizing the allowance of natural fire on the landscape and reducing the homogeneity and connectivity of fuels given the effects of past management practices Fuels specific treatments are discussed below

Description of Fuels Related Treatments

Precommercial Thinning (PCT) Ladder Fuels reduction (LFR)

Precommercial thinning and Ladder Fuels Reduction involves mechanically cutting understory trees less than 7rdquo-8rdquo dbh LFR treatments are designed to reduce ladder fuels thus reducing the potential for crown fire initiation where commercialsilvicultural based activities are unplanned and may include pruning The desired residual stocking of trees under 7rdquo dbh varies and is dependent on the overall stand density and structure Precommercial thinning generally is a more silviculturally based treatment with predefined spacing based on stand type and overarching stand objectives however PCT also effectively reduces the potential for crown fire initiation

Handpiling of Fuels (HP)

Hand Piling consists of piling primarily activity created fuels by hand Completed pile dimensions will be approximately 6rsquo long by 6rsquo wide by 5rsquo in height The amount of piles per acre will fluctuate along with fuel loadings and are expected to occur at a rate of 18 to 24 piles per acre Piles will be burned in the late fall or winter season when moisture levels prevent fire spreading to surrounding areas Handpiling typically occurs where machinery is undesired or slash concentrations do not warrant machine impacts

Machine Piling of Fuels (MP)

Machine Piling consists of piling activity created fuels and in some cases natural fuels utilizing a Grapple Machine MP is planned where concurrent machine operations are planned Where pretreatment fuel loading is greater than 10-12 tons per acre in planned prescribed fire blocks and strategic control units machine piling will incorporate natural fuels and activity generated fuels Completed pile dimensions will be approximately 12rsquo long by 12rsquo wide by 8rsquo in height and will occur at a rate of 6 to 10 piles per acre Piles will be burned in the late fall or winter season when moisture levels prevent fire spreading to surrounding areas

Mechanical Shrub Treatment (MST)

MST consists of mowing brush in and around stands typically to facilitate underburning or as a fire surrogate where prescribed fire is unplanned to effectively rearrange fuel composition in order to reduce flame lengths and associated fire hazard Treatment utilizes eitheror a light tracked machine with a front mounted masticating head or excavator with boom mounted masticating head or a rubber tired tractor equipped with a rotary mower The targeted brush species are bitterbrush ceanothus and manzanita and may include natural

6 | P a g e

regeneration (of smaller diameters) that is not desired for stand stocking Brush and down fuels are included and may occur on up to 70 to 80 of the area within specified units Since generally this is a preparation for underburning if underburning is delayed this treatment may need to be repeated to modify the fuels again

Underburn (UB)

Underburning consists of burning natural fuels and activity produced fuels located in timbered stands Ignition occurs under predetermined weather conditions in order to minimize tree mortality of residual stands Underburning can occur as a sole treatment and in combination with other treatments developed to meet fuel reduction and reintroduction of fire processes objectives Underburning may cause scorch to overstory trees and stimulate the germination of brush seed in the soil Following an underburn it is expected that the scorched needles and branches will add to the surface fuels and brush seedlings will increase the brush component A second burn to reduce the added fuels and the young germinants will be part of this treatment Associated with underburning will be fireline construction Fireline is a removal of flammable materials down to the soil level using a range of methodology from hand tools to caterpillar tractors

Jackpot Burning (JPB)

Treatment involves burning concentrations of fuels during the fall when conditions limit fire creep Burns target high concentrations of 100 hour plus fuels and typically result in partial consumption of concentrations or ldquojackpotsrdquo of fuels

Strategic Roadside Fuels Reduction (ROADFUELS)

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes Roadside treatments will include a combination of ladder fuel reduction piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads

Treatments within Mixed Conifer

Dry and Moist mixed conifer forest are some of the most variable plant association groups on the Deschutes National Forest Therefore it is also variable in associated disturbance regimes (frequency severity and size) Fire behavior and effects to overstory vegetation are strongly related to seasonal drought stress topography existing cover composition and over-riding climatic factors Additionally the relative juxtaposition of these forests in relation to lower elevation dry upland forest influence the composition frequency of disturbance and severity to overstory vegetation Relatively frequent low to mixed severity fires would be expected to occur more often and replacement severity fire to occur more infrequently in these forest types especially at the blended edge with dry forest (Merschel in press) In general large high-severity fires are usually rare events with historical mixed-severity fires an important component in creating landscape heterogeneity and pyrodiveristy Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes and fuels accumulation and arrangement are important characteristics historically the landscape was not dominated by only one or two age classes (Stine et al 2014)

7 | P a g e

Elective removal of large fire tolerant trees and subsequent regeneration and release of shade tolerant conifers has increased the patch size and connectivity of an abundance of dense multistory forest conditions Fire exclusion has allowed these conditions to persist Thus the pattern seen in the Lex mixed conifer types today is largely the result of stand management and fire exclusion (Hessburg et al 2015) The moist and dry mixed conifer forests in the project area currently have a higher potential for replacement severity fires than historically and the effects of replacement fires are uncharacteristic relative to those typical of Fire Regime group III (Table 4) While fire return intervals have not been missed to the same degree as the dry upland forest (Ecology and Management MMC Forests PNWGTR897 2014) fuels accumulation rates in moist forests far exceed those of dry forests due to higher productivity soils This means it takes less missed return intervals to create an uncharacteristic fuel loading and resultant fire behavior A trend towards more fuel fragmentation or lower fuel loads in these forests (a diversity in fuel loading) is a trend away from severe fire and its attendant large patches and high severity Fuel fragmentation does not have to be associated with structural fragmentation or overstory removal but must be associated with declines in at least one of the factors affecting fire behavior reduction of surface fuels and increases in height to live crown as a first priority and decreases in crown closure as a second priority (JK Agee et al Role of fuelsbreaks Forest Ecology and Management 127 (2000) 55plusmn66) To restore fire-related disturbance regimes toward desired conditions in the Lex project area vertical and horizontal fuels must be strategically reduced in appropriate locations Tools available to reduce fuels include thinning toward more natural forest structures mechanical surface fuel fragmentation (piling of natural and activity fuels and mastication) and the ecologically-and socially-appropriate use of planned and unplanned fire

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives affect mixed conifer resiliency within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of mixed conifer within project area rated as low moderate high for wildfire hazard

What is Fire Hazard Fire hazard can be explicitly defined in many ways but is fundamentally the state of the fuels as determined by the volume condition arrangement and location (Hardy 2005) For this reason treating fire hazard must modify fuels in a way that lessens the likelihood of fire ignition potential damage or resistance to control (Evans et al 2011) This analysis assumes that a fuel complex rated low for fire hazard and will not support widespread crown fire and surface fire behavior will be of relatively low intensity under summer like weather conditions better ensuring the capability of a forested area to survive a disturbance event specifically wildfire relatively intact and without widespread (at the landscape scale) tree mortality To rate wildfire hazard the matrix in Table 3 was used (Vaillant Ager Anderson amp Miller 2012) Using this matrix fire hazard is represented as a combination of potential flame length and crown fire activity that the fuel complex will support during 90th percentile weather conditions The 90th percentile weather parameters used in the analysis are described in Appendix B

8 | P a g e

Table 3 Fire Hazard Rating Matrix

Crown Fire Activity

Flame Length (feet) 0-4 4-8 8-11 gt11

Surface Fire Low Moderate Moderate High Passive Crown

Low Moderate

High High

Active Crown

Moderate Moderate High High

Strategic Roadside Fuel Reduction Zone Treatments

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes The proximity of the Lex project area to high value resources such as the Bend Municipal Watershed high recreation areas and the greater community of Bend Oregon make the future ldquouserdquo of natural fire (and its inherent disturbance and associated variation of successional patterns) in the area operationally quite risky In the face of elevated fuel loadings and high landscape connectivity these networks would provide the advantage of breaking large fire-prone landscapes into smaller and more manageable compartments allowing significant benefit for fire management decision space under differing fire weather scenarios (Hessburg2005) These treatments are not intended to stop a headlong rush of a fast moving wildfire (Green 1977) but rather provide a location from which to actively and safely engage in fire management actions in essence compartmentalizing fire spread and management decision space based on current and predicted wildfire drivers The conclusions of Omi (1996) are especially relevant ldquoThere will always be a role for well-designed fuelbreak systems which provide options for managing entire landscapes including wildfire buffers anchor points for prescribed natural fire and management-ignited fire and protection of special features (such as urban interface developments seed orchards or plantations)rdquo

Roadside treatments would include removal of ladder fuels piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads Large woody material would be retained (generally gt8-12rdquo DBH) up to established thresholds as identified in PDCs

9 | P a g e

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives effectiveness of strategic roadside treatments within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of roadside treatment within project area rated as low for wildfire hazard (see above What is Fire Hazard)

Treatments within Lodgepole Stand types

Lodgepole has always been shaped by fire and beetle outbreaks along the eastern slopes of the central Oregon Cascades Episodic regeneration in Lodgepole stands created a multi-aged forest stand structure concurrent with regeneration pulses following disturbance (beetle fire or a combination of both)(Stuart et al 1989) The size and age structure of old stands varies with that disturbance history In much of the lodgepole stand type of the Deschutes National Forest fire suppression has led to abnormally large interconnected areas of heavy fuel resulting from recent and past large scale beetle kills Agee showed the Mean Fire Return Interval for lodgepole to be between 60-80 years Within the available fire record (1980-2014) 52 fires with potential to influence Lodgepole Stands have been actively suppressed at below 25 acres in the Lex project area (Table 7 Figure 6) Treatments are two part in nature First mimicking the spatial effects (as operationally feasible in the context of fire management risk) of wildfire on surface fuel loading in beetle killed stands of lodgepole pine recognizing the importance of high levels of variability in Mountain Pine Beetle and fire shaped ecosystems (Agne 2016) particularly in transitional zones with other forest types impacted by past management actions Second

Figure 2 Roadside shaded fuel break before and after

10 | P a g e

strategically applying treatments in key areas to reduce suppression resistance and interconnectivity of fuels This analysis does not attempt or pretend to suggest that mechanical treatments can fully mimic the process or post forest structure tied to wildfire in frequent fire landscapes However given the many social and fire risk factors in play in the Lex Project area they do provide a surrogate for certain elements of fire effects at the local and landscape scale PDCrsquos incorporating recent post fire surface fuels data (collected from the 2012 Pole Creek Fire) were utilized to best mimic natural processes (Agne MC et al 2016) To indicate how the alternatives affect suppression resistance within lodgepole the following measurement is used

Acres of lodgepole within project area rated as low moderate and high for wildfire hazard

Acres of lodgepole treated to decrease potential rates of spread decrease snag hazard and increase fireline production rates

Maintenance

Sustained alteration of fire behavior requires effective and frequent maintenance so that the effectiveness of any fuel treatment including fuelbreaks will not be only a function of the initial prescription for creation but also the standards for maintenance that are applied (Agee et al 2000) To meet and maintain desired conditions in the Lex planning area multiple entries of thinning mowing andor prescribed burning may be required Fire management personnel on the Deschutes have observed that mowing treatments typically start losing their effectiveness at reducing potential fire behavior after five years In prescribed burn units the interval between burns would depend on pre burn fuel loads post treatment fuel accumulation and post treatment brush response For example in a unit that exhibits high fuel loading a single entry of burning may not sufficiently reduce fuels In this case a second entry within two to eight years of the first may be required to meet desired conditions The maintenance prescribed burning (where applicable) will keep maintain reduced levels of naturally regenerated lodgepole pine white fir brush and accumulated litter through time and best mimic the quantified frequency of natural fire on the landscape Strategic roadside treatments will also require maintenance (hazard tree removal and mastication) through time to remain effective as outlined within AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT Affected Environment- Existing Potential Vegetation Fire Regimes and Fire History

Fredrick Colvilles 1898 report ldquoForest Growth and Sheep Grazing in the Cascade Mountains of Oregonrdquo generally describes vegetation on the eastern slope of the cascades over century ago Colville described ponderosa pine-dominated forests as ldquothe yellow pine forest hellip[in which] the principal species is hellippinus ponderosa The individual trees stand well apart and there is plenty of sunshine between themrdquo Colville describes the upper range of ponderosa pine forests as ldquodenser and often contain a considerable amount of Douglas spruce [fir]hellipCalifornia white firhellip with an undergrowth of snowbrushhellipmanzanitahelliprdquo and the areas dominated by lodgepole pine as ldquosmall thin barked trees easily killed by firehellipset so close together that it is often difficult to ride through them on horsebackrdquo Colville also describes the highest elevation areas adjacent to the Cascade crest as a ldquobelt of black hemlock a usually open forest with underbrush of huckleberrieshellipor wholly devoid of underbrushrdquo Leiberg describes in the 1903 document ldquoForest conditions in the Cascade Range Forest Reserve Oregonrdquo That lsquolsquoFires have run everywhere in the forest stands suppressing the young growth

11 | P a g e

burning great quantities of the firs and filling the forest with a great many small brushed-over tracts in place of the consumed timberrsquorsquo and that ldquoIn many localities the fires have made a clean sweep of the timber and the areas have grown up to brush in other places they have been of low intensity burning 40 per cent of a stand here 5 per cent there or merely destroying individual trees but consuming the humus and killing the undergrowthrsquorsquo Munger (1917) states lsquolsquoIn some stands there is a preponderance of very old trees in fact in many of the virgin stands of central and eastern Oregon there are more of the very old trees and less of the younger than the ideal forest should containrsquorsquo Dodwell (1903) classifies the adjoining Township and Range to the Lex project area as ldquoThe undergrowth is very light consisting of salal and manzanita with small pine The timber consists almost entirely of yellow pine which on the east of the township is of good quality but in the more broken country is small and scrubby It is all open forest with a heavy stand It is of good quality excepting on the high ground where it is somewhat smaller and branchy and mixes with the growth of lodgepole pine Although there is no way to quantify the exact stand conditions and fuel loadings based on any of these qualitative descriptions (eg ldquowell apartrdquo ldquoconsiderablerdquo and ldquodenserrdquo) it is evident that the broad categories described by Colville and others generally represent a diverse spectrum of age groups and successional classes of ponderosa pine mixed conifer lodgepole pine and mountain hemlock plant association groups found within the Lex project area and the greater central Oregon landscape with generally light undergrowth and a prevalence of ldquoYellow Pinerdquo (Table 4)

Table 4 Plant Association Groups and associated Fire Regimes within the Lex project area

Potential Natural Vegetation Groups Acres of Project

Area Fire Regime

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY 943 8 IV

LODGEPOLE PINE WET 5442 46 IV

MIXED CONIFER DRY 1016 8 III

MIXED CONIFER WET 4513 38 III

PONDEROSA PINE DRY 3 02 I

CINDER 13 1 NA

TOTAL 11930 100

The broad plant association groups found in the Lex project area can be further interpreted into historical fire regimes A fire regime is a general classification of the role fire would play across a natural landscape in the absence of modern human mechanical intervention but including the influence of aboriginal burning Coarse scale definitions for five natural (historical) fire regimes were developed by Hardy et al (2001) and Schmidt et al (2002) and interpreted for fire and fuels management by Hann and Bunnell (2001) These five natural (historical) fire regimes are classified based on average number of years between fires (fire frequency) combined with the severity (amount of mortality) of the fire on the dominant overstory vegetation Severity definitions were revised slightly in 2010 to remain consistent with the ongoing LANDFIRE project (Barrett et al 2010) Definitions of the five coarse scale categories are as follows

I 0-35 years Low severity Typical climax plant communities include ponderosa pine eastsidedry Douglas-fir pine-oak woodlands Jeffery pine on serpentine soils oak woodlands and very dry white fir Large stand-replacing fire can occur under certain weather conditions but are rare events (ie every 200+ years)

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

5 | P a g e

This specialist report speaks to only the design of fuel treatments Implementing fuels treatments across the project area seeks to maximize opportunities to establish trajectories towards a more natural coupling of pattern and disturbance processes in the historical context while considering biotic diversity and established refuge in the present day system When designing treatments focus was on historical stand types maximizing the allowance of natural fire on the landscape and reducing the homogeneity and connectivity of fuels given the effects of past management practices Fuels specific treatments are discussed below

Description of Fuels Related Treatments

Precommercial Thinning (PCT) Ladder Fuels reduction (LFR)

Precommercial thinning and Ladder Fuels Reduction involves mechanically cutting understory trees less than 7rdquo-8rdquo dbh LFR treatments are designed to reduce ladder fuels thus reducing the potential for crown fire initiation where commercialsilvicultural based activities are unplanned and may include pruning The desired residual stocking of trees under 7rdquo dbh varies and is dependent on the overall stand density and structure Precommercial thinning generally is a more silviculturally based treatment with predefined spacing based on stand type and overarching stand objectives however PCT also effectively reduces the potential for crown fire initiation

Handpiling of Fuels (HP)

Hand Piling consists of piling primarily activity created fuels by hand Completed pile dimensions will be approximately 6rsquo long by 6rsquo wide by 5rsquo in height The amount of piles per acre will fluctuate along with fuel loadings and are expected to occur at a rate of 18 to 24 piles per acre Piles will be burned in the late fall or winter season when moisture levels prevent fire spreading to surrounding areas Handpiling typically occurs where machinery is undesired or slash concentrations do not warrant machine impacts

Machine Piling of Fuels (MP)

Machine Piling consists of piling activity created fuels and in some cases natural fuels utilizing a Grapple Machine MP is planned where concurrent machine operations are planned Where pretreatment fuel loading is greater than 10-12 tons per acre in planned prescribed fire blocks and strategic control units machine piling will incorporate natural fuels and activity generated fuels Completed pile dimensions will be approximately 12rsquo long by 12rsquo wide by 8rsquo in height and will occur at a rate of 6 to 10 piles per acre Piles will be burned in the late fall or winter season when moisture levels prevent fire spreading to surrounding areas

Mechanical Shrub Treatment (MST)

MST consists of mowing brush in and around stands typically to facilitate underburning or as a fire surrogate where prescribed fire is unplanned to effectively rearrange fuel composition in order to reduce flame lengths and associated fire hazard Treatment utilizes eitheror a light tracked machine with a front mounted masticating head or excavator with boom mounted masticating head or a rubber tired tractor equipped with a rotary mower The targeted brush species are bitterbrush ceanothus and manzanita and may include natural

6 | P a g e

regeneration (of smaller diameters) that is not desired for stand stocking Brush and down fuels are included and may occur on up to 70 to 80 of the area within specified units Since generally this is a preparation for underburning if underburning is delayed this treatment may need to be repeated to modify the fuels again

Underburn (UB)

Underburning consists of burning natural fuels and activity produced fuels located in timbered stands Ignition occurs under predetermined weather conditions in order to minimize tree mortality of residual stands Underburning can occur as a sole treatment and in combination with other treatments developed to meet fuel reduction and reintroduction of fire processes objectives Underburning may cause scorch to overstory trees and stimulate the germination of brush seed in the soil Following an underburn it is expected that the scorched needles and branches will add to the surface fuels and brush seedlings will increase the brush component A second burn to reduce the added fuels and the young germinants will be part of this treatment Associated with underburning will be fireline construction Fireline is a removal of flammable materials down to the soil level using a range of methodology from hand tools to caterpillar tractors

Jackpot Burning (JPB)

Treatment involves burning concentrations of fuels during the fall when conditions limit fire creep Burns target high concentrations of 100 hour plus fuels and typically result in partial consumption of concentrations or ldquojackpotsrdquo of fuels

Strategic Roadside Fuels Reduction (ROADFUELS)

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes Roadside treatments will include a combination of ladder fuel reduction piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads

Treatments within Mixed Conifer

Dry and Moist mixed conifer forest are some of the most variable plant association groups on the Deschutes National Forest Therefore it is also variable in associated disturbance regimes (frequency severity and size) Fire behavior and effects to overstory vegetation are strongly related to seasonal drought stress topography existing cover composition and over-riding climatic factors Additionally the relative juxtaposition of these forests in relation to lower elevation dry upland forest influence the composition frequency of disturbance and severity to overstory vegetation Relatively frequent low to mixed severity fires would be expected to occur more often and replacement severity fire to occur more infrequently in these forest types especially at the blended edge with dry forest (Merschel in press) In general large high-severity fires are usually rare events with historical mixed-severity fires an important component in creating landscape heterogeneity and pyrodiveristy Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes and fuels accumulation and arrangement are important characteristics historically the landscape was not dominated by only one or two age classes (Stine et al 2014)

7 | P a g e

Elective removal of large fire tolerant trees and subsequent regeneration and release of shade tolerant conifers has increased the patch size and connectivity of an abundance of dense multistory forest conditions Fire exclusion has allowed these conditions to persist Thus the pattern seen in the Lex mixed conifer types today is largely the result of stand management and fire exclusion (Hessburg et al 2015) The moist and dry mixed conifer forests in the project area currently have a higher potential for replacement severity fires than historically and the effects of replacement fires are uncharacteristic relative to those typical of Fire Regime group III (Table 4) While fire return intervals have not been missed to the same degree as the dry upland forest (Ecology and Management MMC Forests PNWGTR897 2014) fuels accumulation rates in moist forests far exceed those of dry forests due to higher productivity soils This means it takes less missed return intervals to create an uncharacteristic fuel loading and resultant fire behavior A trend towards more fuel fragmentation or lower fuel loads in these forests (a diversity in fuel loading) is a trend away from severe fire and its attendant large patches and high severity Fuel fragmentation does not have to be associated with structural fragmentation or overstory removal but must be associated with declines in at least one of the factors affecting fire behavior reduction of surface fuels and increases in height to live crown as a first priority and decreases in crown closure as a second priority (JK Agee et al Role of fuelsbreaks Forest Ecology and Management 127 (2000) 55plusmn66) To restore fire-related disturbance regimes toward desired conditions in the Lex project area vertical and horizontal fuels must be strategically reduced in appropriate locations Tools available to reduce fuels include thinning toward more natural forest structures mechanical surface fuel fragmentation (piling of natural and activity fuels and mastication) and the ecologically-and socially-appropriate use of planned and unplanned fire

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives affect mixed conifer resiliency within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of mixed conifer within project area rated as low moderate high for wildfire hazard

What is Fire Hazard Fire hazard can be explicitly defined in many ways but is fundamentally the state of the fuels as determined by the volume condition arrangement and location (Hardy 2005) For this reason treating fire hazard must modify fuels in a way that lessens the likelihood of fire ignition potential damage or resistance to control (Evans et al 2011) This analysis assumes that a fuel complex rated low for fire hazard and will not support widespread crown fire and surface fire behavior will be of relatively low intensity under summer like weather conditions better ensuring the capability of a forested area to survive a disturbance event specifically wildfire relatively intact and without widespread (at the landscape scale) tree mortality To rate wildfire hazard the matrix in Table 3 was used (Vaillant Ager Anderson amp Miller 2012) Using this matrix fire hazard is represented as a combination of potential flame length and crown fire activity that the fuel complex will support during 90th percentile weather conditions The 90th percentile weather parameters used in the analysis are described in Appendix B

8 | P a g e

Table 3 Fire Hazard Rating Matrix

Crown Fire Activity

Flame Length (feet) 0-4 4-8 8-11 gt11

Surface Fire Low Moderate Moderate High Passive Crown

Low Moderate

High High

Active Crown

Moderate Moderate High High

Strategic Roadside Fuel Reduction Zone Treatments

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes The proximity of the Lex project area to high value resources such as the Bend Municipal Watershed high recreation areas and the greater community of Bend Oregon make the future ldquouserdquo of natural fire (and its inherent disturbance and associated variation of successional patterns) in the area operationally quite risky In the face of elevated fuel loadings and high landscape connectivity these networks would provide the advantage of breaking large fire-prone landscapes into smaller and more manageable compartments allowing significant benefit for fire management decision space under differing fire weather scenarios (Hessburg2005) These treatments are not intended to stop a headlong rush of a fast moving wildfire (Green 1977) but rather provide a location from which to actively and safely engage in fire management actions in essence compartmentalizing fire spread and management decision space based on current and predicted wildfire drivers The conclusions of Omi (1996) are especially relevant ldquoThere will always be a role for well-designed fuelbreak systems which provide options for managing entire landscapes including wildfire buffers anchor points for prescribed natural fire and management-ignited fire and protection of special features (such as urban interface developments seed orchards or plantations)rdquo

Roadside treatments would include removal of ladder fuels piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads Large woody material would be retained (generally gt8-12rdquo DBH) up to established thresholds as identified in PDCs

9 | P a g e

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives effectiveness of strategic roadside treatments within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of roadside treatment within project area rated as low for wildfire hazard (see above What is Fire Hazard)

Treatments within Lodgepole Stand types

Lodgepole has always been shaped by fire and beetle outbreaks along the eastern slopes of the central Oregon Cascades Episodic regeneration in Lodgepole stands created a multi-aged forest stand structure concurrent with regeneration pulses following disturbance (beetle fire or a combination of both)(Stuart et al 1989) The size and age structure of old stands varies with that disturbance history In much of the lodgepole stand type of the Deschutes National Forest fire suppression has led to abnormally large interconnected areas of heavy fuel resulting from recent and past large scale beetle kills Agee showed the Mean Fire Return Interval for lodgepole to be between 60-80 years Within the available fire record (1980-2014) 52 fires with potential to influence Lodgepole Stands have been actively suppressed at below 25 acres in the Lex project area (Table 7 Figure 6) Treatments are two part in nature First mimicking the spatial effects (as operationally feasible in the context of fire management risk) of wildfire on surface fuel loading in beetle killed stands of lodgepole pine recognizing the importance of high levels of variability in Mountain Pine Beetle and fire shaped ecosystems (Agne 2016) particularly in transitional zones with other forest types impacted by past management actions Second

Figure 2 Roadside shaded fuel break before and after

10 | P a g e

strategically applying treatments in key areas to reduce suppression resistance and interconnectivity of fuels This analysis does not attempt or pretend to suggest that mechanical treatments can fully mimic the process or post forest structure tied to wildfire in frequent fire landscapes However given the many social and fire risk factors in play in the Lex Project area they do provide a surrogate for certain elements of fire effects at the local and landscape scale PDCrsquos incorporating recent post fire surface fuels data (collected from the 2012 Pole Creek Fire) were utilized to best mimic natural processes (Agne MC et al 2016) To indicate how the alternatives affect suppression resistance within lodgepole the following measurement is used

Acres of lodgepole within project area rated as low moderate and high for wildfire hazard

Acres of lodgepole treated to decrease potential rates of spread decrease snag hazard and increase fireline production rates

Maintenance

Sustained alteration of fire behavior requires effective and frequent maintenance so that the effectiveness of any fuel treatment including fuelbreaks will not be only a function of the initial prescription for creation but also the standards for maintenance that are applied (Agee et al 2000) To meet and maintain desired conditions in the Lex planning area multiple entries of thinning mowing andor prescribed burning may be required Fire management personnel on the Deschutes have observed that mowing treatments typically start losing their effectiveness at reducing potential fire behavior after five years In prescribed burn units the interval between burns would depend on pre burn fuel loads post treatment fuel accumulation and post treatment brush response For example in a unit that exhibits high fuel loading a single entry of burning may not sufficiently reduce fuels In this case a second entry within two to eight years of the first may be required to meet desired conditions The maintenance prescribed burning (where applicable) will keep maintain reduced levels of naturally regenerated lodgepole pine white fir brush and accumulated litter through time and best mimic the quantified frequency of natural fire on the landscape Strategic roadside treatments will also require maintenance (hazard tree removal and mastication) through time to remain effective as outlined within AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT Affected Environment- Existing Potential Vegetation Fire Regimes and Fire History

Fredrick Colvilles 1898 report ldquoForest Growth and Sheep Grazing in the Cascade Mountains of Oregonrdquo generally describes vegetation on the eastern slope of the cascades over century ago Colville described ponderosa pine-dominated forests as ldquothe yellow pine forest hellip[in which] the principal species is hellippinus ponderosa The individual trees stand well apart and there is plenty of sunshine between themrdquo Colville describes the upper range of ponderosa pine forests as ldquodenser and often contain a considerable amount of Douglas spruce [fir]hellipCalifornia white firhellip with an undergrowth of snowbrushhellipmanzanitahelliprdquo and the areas dominated by lodgepole pine as ldquosmall thin barked trees easily killed by firehellipset so close together that it is often difficult to ride through them on horsebackrdquo Colville also describes the highest elevation areas adjacent to the Cascade crest as a ldquobelt of black hemlock a usually open forest with underbrush of huckleberrieshellipor wholly devoid of underbrushrdquo Leiberg describes in the 1903 document ldquoForest conditions in the Cascade Range Forest Reserve Oregonrdquo That lsquolsquoFires have run everywhere in the forest stands suppressing the young growth

11 | P a g e

burning great quantities of the firs and filling the forest with a great many small brushed-over tracts in place of the consumed timberrsquorsquo and that ldquoIn many localities the fires have made a clean sweep of the timber and the areas have grown up to brush in other places they have been of low intensity burning 40 per cent of a stand here 5 per cent there or merely destroying individual trees but consuming the humus and killing the undergrowthrsquorsquo Munger (1917) states lsquolsquoIn some stands there is a preponderance of very old trees in fact in many of the virgin stands of central and eastern Oregon there are more of the very old trees and less of the younger than the ideal forest should containrsquorsquo Dodwell (1903) classifies the adjoining Township and Range to the Lex project area as ldquoThe undergrowth is very light consisting of salal and manzanita with small pine The timber consists almost entirely of yellow pine which on the east of the township is of good quality but in the more broken country is small and scrubby It is all open forest with a heavy stand It is of good quality excepting on the high ground where it is somewhat smaller and branchy and mixes with the growth of lodgepole pine Although there is no way to quantify the exact stand conditions and fuel loadings based on any of these qualitative descriptions (eg ldquowell apartrdquo ldquoconsiderablerdquo and ldquodenserrdquo) it is evident that the broad categories described by Colville and others generally represent a diverse spectrum of age groups and successional classes of ponderosa pine mixed conifer lodgepole pine and mountain hemlock plant association groups found within the Lex project area and the greater central Oregon landscape with generally light undergrowth and a prevalence of ldquoYellow Pinerdquo (Table 4)

Table 4 Plant Association Groups and associated Fire Regimes within the Lex project area

Potential Natural Vegetation Groups Acres of Project

Area Fire Regime

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY 943 8 IV

LODGEPOLE PINE WET 5442 46 IV

MIXED CONIFER DRY 1016 8 III

MIXED CONIFER WET 4513 38 III

PONDEROSA PINE DRY 3 02 I

CINDER 13 1 NA

TOTAL 11930 100

The broad plant association groups found in the Lex project area can be further interpreted into historical fire regimes A fire regime is a general classification of the role fire would play across a natural landscape in the absence of modern human mechanical intervention but including the influence of aboriginal burning Coarse scale definitions for five natural (historical) fire regimes were developed by Hardy et al (2001) and Schmidt et al (2002) and interpreted for fire and fuels management by Hann and Bunnell (2001) These five natural (historical) fire regimes are classified based on average number of years between fires (fire frequency) combined with the severity (amount of mortality) of the fire on the dominant overstory vegetation Severity definitions were revised slightly in 2010 to remain consistent with the ongoing LANDFIRE project (Barrett et al 2010) Definitions of the five coarse scale categories are as follows

I 0-35 years Low severity Typical climax plant communities include ponderosa pine eastsidedry Douglas-fir pine-oak woodlands Jeffery pine on serpentine soils oak woodlands and very dry white fir Large stand-replacing fire can occur under certain weather conditions but are rare events (ie every 200+ years)

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

6 | P a g e

regeneration (of smaller diameters) that is not desired for stand stocking Brush and down fuels are included and may occur on up to 70 to 80 of the area within specified units Since generally this is a preparation for underburning if underburning is delayed this treatment may need to be repeated to modify the fuels again

Underburn (UB)

Underburning consists of burning natural fuels and activity produced fuels located in timbered stands Ignition occurs under predetermined weather conditions in order to minimize tree mortality of residual stands Underburning can occur as a sole treatment and in combination with other treatments developed to meet fuel reduction and reintroduction of fire processes objectives Underburning may cause scorch to overstory trees and stimulate the germination of brush seed in the soil Following an underburn it is expected that the scorched needles and branches will add to the surface fuels and brush seedlings will increase the brush component A second burn to reduce the added fuels and the young germinants will be part of this treatment Associated with underburning will be fireline construction Fireline is a removal of flammable materials down to the soil level using a range of methodology from hand tools to caterpillar tractors

Jackpot Burning (JPB)

Treatment involves burning concentrations of fuels during the fall when conditions limit fire creep Burns target high concentrations of 100 hour plus fuels and typically result in partial consumption of concentrations or ldquojackpotsrdquo of fuels

Strategic Roadside Fuels Reduction (ROADFUELS)

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes Roadside treatments will include a combination of ladder fuel reduction piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads

Treatments within Mixed Conifer

Dry and Moist mixed conifer forest are some of the most variable plant association groups on the Deschutes National Forest Therefore it is also variable in associated disturbance regimes (frequency severity and size) Fire behavior and effects to overstory vegetation are strongly related to seasonal drought stress topography existing cover composition and over-riding climatic factors Additionally the relative juxtaposition of these forests in relation to lower elevation dry upland forest influence the composition frequency of disturbance and severity to overstory vegetation Relatively frequent low to mixed severity fires would be expected to occur more often and replacement severity fire to occur more infrequently in these forest types especially at the blended edge with dry forest (Merschel in press) In general large high-severity fires are usually rare events with historical mixed-severity fires an important component in creating landscape heterogeneity and pyrodiveristy Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes and fuels accumulation and arrangement are important characteristics historically the landscape was not dominated by only one or two age classes (Stine et al 2014)

7 | P a g e

Elective removal of large fire tolerant trees and subsequent regeneration and release of shade tolerant conifers has increased the patch size and connectivity of an abundance of dense multistory forest conditions Fire exclusion has allowed these conditions to persist Thus the pattern seen in the Lex mixed conifer types today is largely the result of stand management and fire exclusion (Hessburg et al 2015) The moist and dry mixed conifer forests in the project area currently have a higher potential for replacement severity fires than historically and the effects of replacement fires are uncharacteristic relative to those typical of Fire Regime group III (Table 4) While fire return intervals have not been missed to the same degree as the dry upland forest (Ecology and Management MMC Forests PNWGTR897 2014) fuels accumulation rates in moist forests far exceed those of dry forests due to higher productivity soils This means it takes less missed return intervals to create an uncharacteristic fuel loading and resultant fire behavior A trend towards more fuel fragmentation or lower fuel loads in these forests (a diversity in fuel loading) is a trend away from severe fire and its attendant large patches and high severity Fuel fragmentation does not have to be associated with structural fragmentation or overstory removal but must be associated with declines in at least one of the factors affecting fire behavior reduction of surface fuels and increases in height to live crown as a first priority and decreases in crown closure as a second priority (JK Agee et al Role of fuelsbreaks Forest Ecology and Management 127 (2000) 55plusmn66) To restore fire-related disturbance regimes toward desired conditions in the Lex project area vertical and horizontal fuels must be strategically reduced in appropriate locations Tools available to reduce fuels include thinning toward more natural forest structures mechanical surface fuel fragmentation (piling of natural and activity fuels and mastication) and the ecologically-and socially-appropriate use of planned and unplanned fire

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives affect mixed conifer resiliency within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of mixed conifer within project area rated as low moderate high for wildfire hazard

What is Fire Hazard Fire hazard can be explicitly defined in many ways but is fundamentally the state of the fuels as determined by the volume condition arrangement and location (Hardy 2005) For this reason treating fire hazard must modify fuels in a way that lessens the likelihood of fire ignition potential damage or resistance to control (Evans et al 2011) This analysis assumes that a fuel complex rated low for fire hazard and will not support widespread crown fire and surface fire behavior will be of relatively low intensity under summer like weather conditions better ensuring the capability of a forested area to survive a disturbance event specifically wildfire relatively intact and without widespread (at the landscape scale) tree mortality To rate wildfire hazard the matrix in Table 3 was used (Vaillant Ager Anderson amp Miller 2012) Using this matrix fire hazard is represented as a combination of potential flame length and crown fire activity that the fuel complex will support during 90th percentile weather conditions The 90th percentile weather parameters used in the analysis are described in Appendix B

8 | P a g e

Table 3 Fire Hazard Rating Matrix

Crown Fire Activity

Flame Length (feet) 0-4 4-8 8-11 gt11

Surface Fire Low Moderate Moderate High Passive Crown

Low Moderate

High High

Active Crown

Moderate Moderate High High

Strategic Roadside Fuel Reduction Zone Treatments

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes The proximity of the Lex project area to high value resources such as the Bend Municipal Watershed high recreation areas and the greater community of Bend Oregon make the future ldquouserdquo of natural fire (and its inherent disturbance and associated variation of successional patterns) in the area operationally quite risky In the face of elevated fuel loadings and high landscape connectivity these networks would provide the advantage of breaking large fire-prone landscapes into smaller and more manageable compartments allowing significant benefit for fire management decision space under differing fire weather scenarios (Hessburg2005) These treatments are not intended to stop a headlong rush of a fast moving wildfire (Green 1977) but rather provide a location from which to actively and safely engage in fire management actions in essence compartmentalizing fire spread and management decision space based on current and predicted wildfire drivers The conclusions of Omi (1996) are especially relevant ldquoThere will always be a role for well-designed fuelbreak systems which provide options for managing entire landscapes including wildfire buffers anchor points for prescribed natural fire and management-ignited fire and protection of special features (such as urban interface developments seed orchards or plantations)rdquo

Roadside treatments would include removal of ladder fuels piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads Large woody material would be retained (generally gt8-12rdquo DBH) up to established thresholds as identified in PDCs

9 | P a g e

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives effectiveness of strategic roadside treatments within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of roadside treatment within project area rated as low for wildfire hazard (see above What is Fire Hazard)

Treatments within Lodgepole Stand types

Lodgepole has always been shaped by fire and beetle outbreaks along the eastern slopes of the central Oregon Cascades Episodic regeneration in Lodgepole stands created a multi-aged forest stand structure concurrent with regeneration pulses following disturbance (beetle fire or a combination of both)(Stuart et al 1989) The size and age structure of old stands varies with that disturbance history In much of the lodgepole stand type of the Deschutes National Forest fire suppression has led to abnormally large interconnected areas of heavy fuel resulting from recent and past large scale beetle kills Agee showed the Mean Fire Return Interval for lodgepole to be between 60-80 years Within the available fire record (1980-2014) 52 fires with potential to influence Lodgepole Stands have been actively suppressed at below 25 acres in the Lex project area (Table 7 Figure 6) Treatments are two part in nature First mimicking the spatial effects (as operationally feasible in the context of fire management risk) of wildfire on surface fuel loading in beetle killed stands of lodgepole pine recognizing the importance of high levels of variability in Mountain Pine Beetle and fire shaped ecosystems (Agne 2016) particularly in transitional zones with other forest types impacted by past management actions Second

Figure 2 Roadside shaded fuel break before and after

10 | P a g e

strategically applying treatments in key areas to reduce suppression resistance and interconnectivity of fuels This analysis does not attempt or pretend to suggest that mechanical treatments can fully mimic the process or post forest structure tied to wildfire in frequent fire landscapes However given the many social and fire risk factors in play in the Lex Project area they do provide a surrogate for certain elements of fire effects at the local and landscape scale PDCrsquos incorporating recent post fire surface fuels data (collected from the 2012 Pole Creek Fire) were utilized to best mimic natural processes (Agne MC et al 2016) To indicate how the alternatives affect suppression resistance within lodgepole the following measurement is used

Acres of lodgepole within project area rated as low moderate and high for wildfire hazard

Acres of lodgepole treated to decrease potential rates of spread decrease snag hazard and increase fireline production rates

Maintenance

Sustained alteration of fire behavior requires effective and frequent maintenance so that the effectiveness of any fuel treatment including fuelbreaks will not be only a function of the initial prescription for creation but also the standards for maintenance that are applied (Agee et al 2000) To meet and maintain desired conditions in the Lex planning area multiple entries of thinning mowing andor prescribed burning may be required Fire management personnel on the Deschutes have observed that mowing treatments typically start losing their effectiveness at reducing potential fire behavior after five years In prescribed burn units the interval between burns would depend on pre burn fuel loads post treatment fuel accumulation and post treatment brush response For example in a unit that exhibits high fuel loading a single entry of burning may not sufficiently reduce fuels In this case a second entry within two to eight years of the first may be required to meet desired conditions The maintenance prescribed burning (where applicable) will keep maintain reduced levels of naturally regenerated lodgepole pine white fir brush and accumulated litter through time and best mimic the quantified frequency of natural fire on the landscape Strategic roadside treatments will also require maintenance (hazard tree removal and mastication) through time to remain effective as outlined within AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT Affected Environment- Existing Potential Vegetation Fire Regimes and Fire History

Fredrick Colvilles 1898 report ldquoForest Growth and Sheep Grazing in the Cascade Mountains of Oregonrdquo generally describes vegetation on the eastern slope of the cascades over century ago Colville described ponderosa pine-dominated forests as ldquothe yellow pine forest hellip[in which] the principal species is hellippinus ponderosa The individual trees stand well apart and there is plenty of sunshine between themrdquo Colville describes the upper range of ponderosa pine forests as ldquodenser and often contain a considerable amount of Douglas spruce [fir]hellipCalifornia white firhellip with an undergrowth of snowbrushhellipmanzanitahelliprdquo and the areas dominated by lodgepole pine as ldquosmall thin barked trees easily killed by firehellipset so close together that it is often difficult to ride through them on horsebackrdquo Colville also describes the highest elevation areas adjacent to the Cascade crest as a ldquobelt of black hemlock a usually open forest with underbrush of huckleberrieshellipor wholly devoid of underbrushrdquo Leiberg describes in the 1903 document ldquoForest conditions in the Cascade Range Forest Reserve Oregonrdquo That lsquolsquoFires have run everywhere in the forest stands suppressing the young growth

11 | P a g e

burning great quantities of the firs and filling the forest with a great many small brushed-over tracts in place of the consumed timberrsquorsquo and that ldquoIn many localities the fires have made a clean sweep of the timber and the areas have grown up to brush in other places they have been of low intensity burning 40 per cent of a stand here 5 per cent there or merely destroying individual trees but consuming the humus and killing the undergrowthrsquorsquo Munger (1917) states lsquolsquoIn some stands there is a preponderance of very old trees in fact in many of the virgin stands of central and eastern Oregon there are more of the very old trees and less of the younger than the ideal forest should containrsquorsquo Dodwell (1903) classifies the adjoining Township and Range to the Lex project area as ldquoThe undergrowth is very light consisting of salal and manzanita with small pine The timber consists almost entirely of yellow pine which on the east of the township is of good quality but in the more broken country is small and scrubby It is all open forest with a heavy stand It is of good quality excepting on the high ground where it is somewhat smaller and branchy and mixes with the growth of lodgepole pine Although there is no way to quantify the exact stand conditions and fuel loadings based on any of these qualitative descriptions (eg ldquowell apartrdquo ldquoconsiderablerdquo and ldquodenserrdquo) it is evident that the broad categories described by Colville and others generally represent a diverse spectrum of age groups and successional classes of ponderosa pine mixed conifer lodgepole pine and mountain hemlock plant association groups found within the Lex project area and the greater central Oregon landscape with generally light undergrowth and a prevalence of ldquoYellow Pinerdquo (Table 4)

Table 4 Plant Association Groups and associated Fire Regimes within the Lex project area

Potential Natural Vegetation Groups Acres of Project

Area Fire Regime

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY 943 8 IV

LODGEPOLE PINE WET 5442 46 IV

MIXED CONIFER DRY 1016 8 III

MIXED CONIFER WET 4513 38 III

PONDEROSA PINE DRY 3 02 I

CINDER 13 1 NA

TOTAL 11930 100

The broad plant association groups found in the Lex project area can be further interpreted into historical fire regimes A fire regime is a general classification of the role fire would play across a natural landscape in the absence of modern human mechanical intervention but including the influence of aboriginal burning Coarse scale definitions for five natural (historical) fire regimes were developed by Hardy et al (2001) and Schmidt et al (2002) and interpreted for fire and fuels management by Hann and Bunnell (2001) These five natural (historical) fire regimes are classified based on average number of years between fires (fire frequency) combined with the severity (amount of mortality) of the fire on the dominant overstory vegetation Severity definitions were revised slightly in 2010 to remain consistent with the ongoing LANDFIRE project (Barrett et al 2010) Definitions of the five coarse scale categories are as follows

I 0-35 years Low severity Typical climax plant communities include ponderosa pine eastsidedry Douglas-fir pine-oak woodlands Jeffery pine on serpentine soils oak woodlands and very dry white fir Large stand-replacing fire can occur under certain weather conditions but are rare events (ie every 200+ years)

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

7 | P a g e

Elective removal of large fire tolerant trees and subsequent regeneration and release of shade tolerant conifers has increased the patch size and connectivity of an abundance of dense multistory forest conditions Fire exclusion has allowed these conditions to persist Thus the pattern seen in the Lex mixed conifer types today is largely the result of stand management and fire exclusion (Hessburg et al 2015) The moist and dry mixed conifer forests in the project area currently have a higher potential for replacement severity fires than historically and the effects of replacement fires are uncharacteristic relative to those typical of Fire Regime group III (Table 4) While fire return intervals have not been missed to the same degree as the dry upland forest (Ecology and Management MMC Forests PNWGTR897 2014) fuels accumulation rates in moist forests far exceed those of dry forests due to higher productivity soils This means it takes less missed return intervals to create an uncharacteristic fuel loading and resultant fire behavior A trend towards more fuel fragmentation or lower fuel loads in these forests (a diversity in fuel loading) is a trend away from severe fire and its attendant large patches and high severity Fuel fragmentation does not have to be associated with structural fragmentation or overstory removal but must be associated with declines in at least one of the factors affecting fire behavior reduction of surface fuels and increases in height to live crown as a first priority and decreases in crown closure as a second priority (JK Agee et al Role of fuelsbreaks Forest Ecology and Management 127 (2000) 55plusmn66) To restore fire-related disturbance regimes toward desired conditions in the Lex project area vertical and horizontal fuels must be strategically reduced in appropriate locations Tools available to reduce fuels include thinning toward more natural forest structures mechanical surface fuel fragmentation (piling of natural and activity fuels and mastication) and the ecologically-and socially-appropriate use of planned and unplanned fire

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives affect mixed conifer resiliency within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of mixed conifer within project area rated as low moderate high for wildfire hazard

What is Fire Hazard Fire hazard can be explicitly defined in many ways but is fundamentally the state of the fuels as determined by the volume condition arrangement and location (Hardy 2005) For this reason treating fire hazard must modify fuels in a way that lessens the likelihood of fire ignition potential damage or resistance to control (Evans et al 2011) This analysis assumes that a fuel complex rated low for fire hazard and will not support widespread crown fire and surface fire behavior will be of relatively low intensity under summer like weather conditions better ensuring the capability of a forested area to survive a disturbance event specifically wildfire relatively intact and without widespread (at the landscape scale) tree mortality To rate wildfire hazard the matrix in Table 3 was used (Vaillant Ager Anderson amp Miller 2012) Using this matrix fire hazard is represented as a combination of potential flame length and crown fire activity that the fuel complex will support during 90th percentile weather conditions The 90th percentile weather parameters used in the analysis are described in Appendix B

8 | P a g e

Table 3 Fire Hazard Rating Matrix

Crown Fire Activity

Flame Length (feet) 0-4 4-8 8-11 gt11

Surface Fire Low Moderate Moderate High Passive Crown

Low Moderate

High High

Active Crown

Moderate Moderate High High

Strategic Roadside Fuel Reduction Zone Treatments

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes The proximity of the Lex project area to high value resources such as the Bend Municipal Watershed high recreation areas and the greater community of Bend Oregon make the future ldquouserdquo of natural fire (and its inherent disturbance and associated variation of successional patterns) in the area operationally quite risky In the face of elevated fuel loadings and high landscape connectivity these networks would provide the advantage of breaking large fire-prone landscapes into smaller and more manageable compartments allowing significant benefit for fire management decision space under differing fire weather scenarios (Hessburg2005) These treatments are not intended to stop a headlong rush of a fast moving wildfire (Green 1977) but rather provide a location from which to actively and safely engage in fire management actions in essence compartmentalizing fire spread and management decision space based on current and predicted wildfire drivers The conclusions of Omi (1996) are especially relevant ldquoThere will always be a role for well-designed fuelbreak systems which provide options for managing entire landscapes including wildfire buffers anchor points for prescribed natural fire and management-ignited fire and protection of special features (such as urban interface developments seed orchards or plantations)rdquo

Roadside treatments would include removal of ladder fuels piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads Large woody material would be retained (generally gt8-12rdquo DBH) up to established thresholds as identified in PDCs

9 | P a g e

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives effectiveness of strategic roadside treatments within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of roadside treatment within project area rated as low for wildfire hazard (see above What is Fire Hazard)

Treatments within Lodgepole Stand types

Lodgepole has always been shaped by fire and beetle outbreaks along the eastern slopes of the central Oregon Cascades Episodic regeneration in Lodgepole stands created a multi-aged forest stand structure concurrent with regeneration pulses following disturbance (beetle fire or a combination of both)(Stuart et al 1989) The size and age structure of old stands varies with that disturbance history In much of the lodgepole stand type of the Deschutes National Forest fire suppression has led to abnormally large interconnected areas of heavy fuel resulting from recent and past large scale beetle kills Agee showed the Mean Fire Return Interval for lodgepole to be between 60-80 years Within the available fire record (1980-2014) 52 fires with potential to influence Lodgepole Stands have been actively suppressed at below 25 acres in the Lex project area (Table 7 Figure 6) Treatments are two part in nature First mimicking the spatial effects (as operationally feasible in the context of fire management risk) of wildfire on surface fuel loading in beetle killed stands of lodgepole pine recognizing the importance of high levels of variability in Mountain Pine Beetle and fire shaped ecosystems (Agne 2016) particularly in transitional zones with other forest types impacted by past management actions Second

Figure 2 Roadside shaded fuel break before and after

10 | P a g e

strategically applying treatments in key areas to reduce suppression resistance and interconnectivity of fuels This analysis does not attempt or pretend to suggest that mechanical treatments can fully mimic the process or post forest structure tied to wildfire in frequent fire landscapes However given the many social and fire risk factors in play in the Lex Project area they do provide a surrogate for certain elements of fire effects at the local and landscape scale PDCrsquos incorporating recent post fire surface fuels data (collected from the 2012 Pole Creek Fire) were utilized to best mimic natural processes (Agne MC et al 2016) To indicate how the alternatives affect suppression resistance within lodgepole the following measurement is used

Acres of lodgepole within project area rated as low moderate and high for wildfire hazard

Acres of lodgepole treated to decrease potential rates of spread decrease snag hazard and increase fireline production rates

Maintenance

Sustained alteration of fire behavior requires effective and frequent maintenance so that the effectiveness of any fuel treatment including fuelbreaks will not be only a function of the initial prescription for creation but also the standards for maintenance that are applied (Agee et al 2000) To meet and maintain desired conditions in the Lex planning area multiple entries of thinning mowing andor prescribed burning may be required Fire management personnel on the Deschutes have observed that mowing treatments typically start losing their effectiveness at reducing potential fire behavior after five years In prescribed burn units the interval between burns would depend on pre burn fuel loads post treatment fuel accumulation and post treatment brush response For example in a unit that exhibits high fuel loading a single entry of burning may not sufficiently reduce fuels In this case a second entry within two to eight years of the first may be required to meet desired conditions The maintenance prescribed burning (where applicable) will keep maintain reduced levels of naturally regenerated lodgepole pine white fir brush and accumulated litter through time and best mimic the quantified frequency of natural fire on the landscape Strategic roadside treatments will also require maintenance (hazard tree removal and mastication) through time to remain effective as outlined within AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT Affected Environment- Existing Potential Vegetation Fire Regimes and Fire History

Fredrick Colvilles 1898 report ldquoForest Growth and Sheep Grazing in the Cascade Mountains of Oregonrdquo generally describes vegetation on the eastern slope of the cascades over century ago Colville described ponderosa pine-dominated forests as ldquothe yellow pine forest hellip[in which] the principal species is hellippinus ponderosa The individual trees stand well apart and there is plenty of sunshine between themrdquo Colville describes the upper range of ponderosa pine forests as ldquodenser and often contain a considerable amount of Douglas spruce [fir]hellipCalifornia white firhellip with an undergrowth of snowbrushhellipmanzanitahelliprdquo and the areas dominated by lodgepole pine as ldquosmall thin barked trees easily killed by firehellipset so close together that it is often difficult to ride through them on horsebackrdquo Colville also describes the highest elevation areas adjacent to the Cascade crest as a ldquobelt of black hemlock a usually open forest with underbrush of huckleberrieshellipor wholly devoid of underbrushrdquo Leiberg describes in the 1903 document ldquoForest conditions in the Cascade Range Forest Reserve Oregonrdquo That lsquolsquoFires have run everywhere in the forest stands suppressing the young growth

11 | P a g e

burning great quantities of the firs and filling the forest with a great many small brushed-over tracts in place of the consumed timberrsquorsquo and that ldquoIn many localities the fires have made a clean sweep of the timber and the areas have grown up to brush in other places they have been of low intensity burning 40 per cent of a stand here 5 per cent there or merely destroying individual trees but consuming the humus and killing the undergrowthrsquorsquo Munger (1917) states lsquolsquoIn some stands there is a preponderance of very old trees in fact in many of the virgin stands of central and eastern Oregon there are more of the very old trees and less of the younger than the ideal forest should containrsquorsquo Dodwell (1903) classifies the adjoining Township and Range to the Lex project area as ldquoThe undergrowth is very light consisting of salal and manzanita with small pine The timber consists almost entirely of yellow pine which on the east of the township is of good quality but in the more broken country is small and scrubby It is all open forest with a heavy stand It is of good quality excepting on the high ground where it is somewhat smaller and branchy and mixes with the growth of lodgepole pine Although there is no way to quantify the exact stand conditions and fuel loadings based on any of these qualitative descriptions (eg ldquowell apartrdquo ldquoconsiderablerdquo and ldquodenserrdquo) it is evident that the broad categories described by Colville and others generally represent a diverse spectrum of age groups and successional classes of ponderosa pine mixed conifer lodgepole pine and mountain hemlock plant association groups found within the Lex project area and the greater central Oregon landscape with generally light undergrowth and a prevalence of ldquoYellow Pinerdquo (Table 4)

Table 4 Plant Association Groups and associated Fire Regimes within the Lex project area

Potential Natural Vegetation Groups Acres of Project

Area Fire Regime

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY 943 8 IV

LODGEPOLE PINE WET 5442 46 IV

MIXED CONIFER DRY 1016 8 III

MIXED CONIFER WET 4513 38 III

PONDEROSA PINE DRY 3 02 I

CINDER 13 1 NA

TOTAL 11930 100

The broad plant association groups found in the Lex project area can be further interpreted into historical fire regimes A fire regime is a general classification of the role fire would play across a natural landscape in the absence of modern human mechanical intervention but including the influence of aboriginal burning Coarse scale definitions for five natural (historical) fire regimes were developed by Hardy et al (2001) and Schmidt et al (2002) and interpreted for fire and fuels management by Hann and Bunnell (2001) These five natural (historical) fire regimes are classified based on average number of years between fires (fire frequency) combined with the severity (amount of mortality) of the fire on the dominant overstory vegetation Severity definitions were revised slightly in 2010 to remain consistent with the ongoing LANDFIRE project (Barrett et al 2010) Definitions of the five coarse scale categories are as follows

I 0-35 years Low severity Typical climax plant communities include ponderosa pine eastsidedry Douglas-fir pine-oak woodlands Jeffery pine on serpentine soils oak woodlands and very dry white fir Large stand-replacing fire can occur under certain weather conditions but are rare events (ie every 200+ years)

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

8 | P a g e

Table 3 Fire Hazard Rating Matrix

Crown Fire Activity

Flame Length (feet) 0-4 4-8 8-11 gt11

Surface Fire Low Moderate Moderate High Passive Crown

Low Moderate

High High

Active Crown

Moderate Moderate High High

Strategic Roadside Fuel Reduction Zone Treatments

Roadside treatments are designed to enable the use of existing transportation infrastructure at the project and landscape level in the context of natural disturbance regimes The proximity of the Lex project area to high value resources such as the Bend Municipal Watershed high recreation areas and the greater community of Bend Oregon make the future ldquouserdquo of natural fire (and its inherent disturbance and associated variation of successional patterns) in the area operationally quite risky In the face of elevated fuel loadings and high landscape connectivity these networks would provide the advantage of breaking large fire-prone landscapes into smaller and more manageable compartments allowing significant benefit for fire management decision space under differing fire weather scenarios (Hessburg2005) These treatments are not intended to stop a headlong rush of a fast moving wildfire (Green 1977) but rather provide a location from which to actively and safely engage in fire management actions in essence compartmentalizing fire spread and management decision space based on current and predicted wildfire drivers The conclusions of Omi (1996) are especially relevant ldquoThere will always be a role for well-designed fuelbreak systems which provide options for managing entire landscapes including wildfire buffers anchor points for prescribed natural fire and management-ignited fire and protection of special features (such as urban interface developments seed orchards or plantations)rdquo

Roadside treatments would include removal of ladder fuels piling of activity (and in some cases natural) fuels hazard tree falling and mechanical shrub treatments (where necessary) 200ft on either side of identified roads Large woody material would be retained (generally gt8-12rdquo DBH) up to established thresholds as identified in PDCs

9 | P a g e

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives effectiveness of strategic roadside treatments within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of roadside treatment within project area rated as low for wildfire hazard (see above What is Fire Hazard)

Treatments within Lodgepole Stand types

Lodgepole has always been shaped by fire and beetle outbreaks along the eastern slopes of the central Oregon Cascades Episodic regeneration in Lodgepole stands created a multi-aged forest stand structure concurrent with regeneration pulses following disturbance (beetle fire or a combination of both)(Stuart et al 1989) The size and age structure of old stands varies with that disturbance history In much of the lodgepole stand type of the Deschutes National Forest fire suppression has led to abnormally large interconnected areas of heavy fuel resulting from recent and past large scale beetle kills Agee showed the Mean Fire Return Interval for lodgepole to be between 60-80 years Within the available fire record (1980-2014) 52 fires with potential to influence Lodgepole Stands have been actively suppressed at below 25 acres in the Lex project area (Table 7 Figure 6) Treatments are two part in nature First mimicking the spatial effects (as operationally feasible in the context of fire management risk) of wildfire on surface fuel loading in beetle killed stands of lodgepole pine recognizing the importance of high levels of variability in Mountain Pine Beetle and fire shaped ecosystems (Agne 2016) particularly in transitional zones with other forest types impacted by past management actions Second

Figure 2 Roadside shaded fuel break before and after

10 | P a g e

strategically applying treatments in key areas to reduce suppression resistance and interconnectivity of fuels This analysis does not attempt or pretend to suggest that mechanical treatments can fully mimic the process or post forest structure tied to wildfire in frequent fire landscapes However given the many social and fire risk factors in play in the Lex Project area they do provide a surrogate for certain elements of fire effects at the local and landscape scale PDCrsquos incorporating recent post fire surface fuels data (collected from the 2012 Pole Creek Fire) were utilized to best mimic natural processes (Agne MC et al 2016) To indicate how the alternatives affect suppression resistance within lodgepole the following measurement is used

Acres of lodgepole within project area rated as low moderate and high for wildfire hazard

Acres of lodgepole treated to decrease potential rates of spread decrease snag hazard and increase fireline production rates

Maintenance

Sustained alteration of fire behavior requires effective and frequent maintenance so that the effectiveness of any fuel treatment including fuelbreaks will not be only a function of the initial prescription for creation but also the standards for maintenance that are applied (Agee et al 2000) To meet and maintain desired conditions in the Lex planning area multiple entries of thinning mowing andor prescribed burning may be required Fire management personnel on the Deschutes have observed that mowing treatments typically start losing their effectiveness at reducing potential fire behavior after five years In prescribed burn units the interval between burns would depend on pre burn fuel loads post treatment fuel accumulation and post treatment brush response For example in a unit that exhibits high fuel loading a single entry of burning may not sufficiently reduce fuels In this case a second entry within two to eight years of the first may be required to meet desired conditions The maintenance prescribed burning (where applicable) will keep maintain reduced levels of naturally regenerated lodgepole pine white fir brush and accumulated litter through time and best mimic the quantified frequency of natural fire on the landscape Strategic roadside treatments will also require maintenance (hazard tree removal and mastication) through time to remain effective as outlined within AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT Affected Environment- Existing Potential Vegetation Fire Regimes and Fire History

Fredrick Colvilles 1898 report ldquoForest Growth and Sheep Grazing in the Cascade Mountains of Oregonrdquo generally describes vegetation on the eastern slope of the cascades over century ago Colville described ponderosa pine-dominated forests as ldquothe yellow pine forest hellip[in which] the principal species is hellippinus ponderosa The individual trees stand well apart and there is plenty of sunshine between themrdquo Colville describes the upper range of ponderosa pine forests as ldquodenser and often contain a considerable amount of Douglas spruce [fir]hellipCalifornia white firhellip with an undergrowth of snowbrushhellipmanzanitahelliprdquo and the areas dominated by lodgepole pine as ldquosmall thin barked trees easily killed by firehellipset so close together that it is often difficult to ride through them on horsebackrdquo Colville also describes the highest elevation areas adjacent to the Cascade crest as a ldquobelt of black hemlock a usually open forest with underbrush of huckleberrieshellipor wholly devoid of underbrushrdquo Leiberg describes in the 1903 document ldquoForest conditions in the Cascade Range Forest Reserve Oregonrdquo That lsquolsquoFires have run everywhere in the forest stands suppressing the young growth

11 | P a g e

burning great quantities of the firs and filling the forest with a great many small brushed-over tracts in place of the consumed timberrsquorsquo and that ldquoIn many localities the fires have made a clean sweep of the timber and the areas have grown up to brush in other places they have been of low intensity burning 40 per cent of a stand here 5 per cent there or merely destroying individual trees but consuming the humus and killing the undergrowthrsquorsquo Munger (1917) states lsquolsquoIn some stands there is a preponderance of very old trees in fact in many of the virgin stands of central and eastern Oregon there are more of the very old trees and less of the younger than the ideal forest should containrsquorsquo Dodwell (1903) classifies the adjoining Township and Range to the Lex project area as ldquoThe undergrowth is very light consisting of salal and manzanita with small pine The timber consists almost entirely of yellow pine which on the east of the township is of good quality but in the more broken country is small and scrubby It is all open forest with a heavy stand It is of good quality excepting on the high ground where it is somewhat smaller and branchy and mixes with the growth of lodgepole pine Although there is no way to quantify the exact stand conditions and fuel loadings based on any of these qualitative descriptions (eg ldquowell apartrdquo ldquoconsiderablerdquo and ldquodenserrdquo) it is evident that the broad categories described by Colville and others generally represent a diverse spectrum of age groups and successional classes of ponderosa pine mixed conifer lodgepole pine and mountain hemlock plant association groups found within the Lex project area and the greater central Oregon landscape with generally light undergrowth and a prevalence of ldquoYellow Pinerdquo (Table 4)

Table 4 Plant Association Groups and associated Fire Regimes within the Lex project area

Potential Natural Vegetation Groups Acres of Project

Area Fire Regime

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY 943 8 IV

LODGEPOLE PINE WET 5442 46 IV

MIXED CONIFER DRY 1016 8 III

MIXED CONIFER WET 4513 38 III

PONDEROSA PINE DRY 3 02 I

CINDER 13 1 NA

TOTAL 11930 100

The broad plant association groups found in the Lex project area can be further interpreted into historical fire regimes A fire regime is a general classification of the role fire would play across a natural landscape in the absence of modern human mechanical intervention but including the influence of aboriginal burning Coarse scale definitions for five natural (historical) fire regimes were developed by Hardy et al (2001) and Schmidt et al (2002) and interpreted for fire and fuels management by Hann and Bunnell (2001) These five natural (historical) fire regimes are classified based on average number of years between fires (fire frequency) combined with the severity (amount of mortality) of the fire on the dominant overstory vegetation Severity definitions were revised slightly in 2010 to remain consistent with the ongoing LANDFIRE project (Barrett et al 2010) Definitions of the five coarse scale categories are as follows

I 0-35 years Low severity Typical climax plant communities include ponderosa pine eastsidedry Douglas-fir pine-oak woodlands Jeffery pine on serpentine soils oak woodlands and very dry white fir Large stand-replacing fire can occur under certain weather conditions but are rare events (ie every 200+ years)

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

9 | P a g e

Measures

To indicate how the alternatives effectiveness of strategic roadside treatments within the Lex planning area the following measurement is used

Acres of roadside treatment within project area rated as low for wildfire hazard (see above What is Fire Hazard)

Treatments within Lodgepole Stand types

Lodgepole has always been shaped by fire and beetle outbreaks along the eastern slopes of the central Oregon Cascades Episodic regeneration in Lodgepole stands created a multi-aged forest stand structure concurrent with regeneration pulses following disturbance (beetle fire or a combination of both)(Stuart et al 1989) The size and age structure of old stands varies with that disturbance history In much of the lodgepole stand type of the Deschutes National Forest fire suppression has led to abnormally large interconnected areas of heavy fuel resulting from recent and past large scale beetle kills Agee showed the Mean Fire Return Interval for lodgepole to be between 60-80 years Within the available fire record (1980-2014) 52 fires with potential to influence Lodgepole Stands have been actively suppressed at below 25 acres in the Lex project area (Table 7 Figure 6) Treatments are two part in nature First mimicking the spatial effects (as operationally feasible in the context of fire management risk) of wildfire on surface fuel loading in beetle killed stands of lodgepole pine recognizing the importance of high levels of variability in Mountain Pine Beetle and fire shaped ecosystems (Agne 2016) particularly in transitional zones with other forest types impacted by past management actions Second

Figure 2 Roadside shaded fuel break before and after

10 | P a g e

strategically applying treatments in key areas to reduce suppression resistance and interconnectivity of fuels This analysis does not attempt or pretend to suggest that mechanical treatments can fully mimic the process or post forest structure tied to wildfire in frequent fire landscapes However given the many social and fire risk factors in play in the Lex Project area they do provide a surrogate for certain elements of fire effects at the local and landscape scale PDCrsquos incorporating recent post fire surface fuels data (collected from the 2012 Pole Creek Fire) were utilized to best mimic natural processes (Agne MC et al 2016) To indicate how the alternatives affect suppression resistance within lodgepole the following measurement is used

Acres of lodgepole within project area rated as low moderate and high for wildfire hazard

Acres of lodgepole treated to decrease potential rates of spread decrease snag hazard and increase fireline production rates

Maintenance

Sustained alteration of fire behavior requires effective and frequent maintenance so that the effectiveness of any fuel treatment including fuelbreaks will not be only a function of the initial prescription for creation but also the standards for maintenance that are applied (Agee et al 2000) To meet and maintain desired conditions in the Lex planning area multiple entries of thinning mowing andor prescribed burning may be required Fire management personnel on the Deschutes have observed that mowing treatments typically start losing their effectiveness at reducing potential fire behavior after five years In prescribed burn units the interval between burns would depend on pre burn fuel loads post treatment fuel accumulation and post treatment brush response For example in a unit that exhibits high fuel loading a single entry of burning may not sufficiently reduce fuels In this case a second entry within two to eight years of the first may be required to meet desired conditions The maintenance prescribed burning (where applicable) will keep maintain reduced levels of naturally regenerated lodgepole pine white fir brush and accumulated litter through time and best mimic the quantified frequency of natural fire on the landscape Strategic roadside treatments will also require maintenance (hazard tree removal and mastication) through time to remain effective as outlined within AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT Affected Environment- Existing Potential Vegetation Fire Regimes and Fire History

Fredrick Colvilles 1898 report ldquoForest Growth and Sheep Grazing in the Cascade Mountains of Oregonrdquo generally describes vegetation on the eastern slope of the cascades over century ago Colville described ponderosa pine-dominated forests as ldquothe yellow pine forest hellip[in which] the principal species is hellippinus ponderosa The individual trees stand well apart and there is plenty of sunshine between themrdquo Colville describes the upper range of ponderosa pine forests as ldquodenser and often contain a considerable amount of Douglas spruce [fir]hellipCalifornia white firhellip with an undergrowth of snowbrushhellipmanzanitahelliprdquo and the areas dominated by lodgepole pine as ldquosmall thin barked trees easily killed by firehellipset so close together that it is often difficult to ride through them on horsebackrdquo Colville also describes the highest elevation areas adjacent to the Cascade crest as a ldquobelt of black hemlock a usually open forest with underbrush of huckleberrieshellipor wholly devoid of underbrushrdquo Leiberg describes in the 1903 document ldquoForest conditions in the Cascade Range Forest Reserve Oregonrdquo That lsquolsquoFires have run everywhere in the forest stands suppressing the young growth

11 | P a g e

burning great quantities of the firs and filling the forest with a great many small brushed-over tracts in place of the consumed timberrsquorsquo and that ldquoIn many localities the fires have made a clean sweep of the timber and the areas have grown up to brush in other places they have been of low intensity burning 40 per cent of a stand here 5 per cent there or merely destroying individual trees but consuming the humus and killing the undergrowthrsquorsquo Munger (1917) states lsquolsquoIn some stands there is a preponderance of very old trees in fact in many of the virgin stands of central and eastern Oregon there are more of the very old trees and less of the younger than the ideal forest should containrsquorsquo Dodwell (1903) classifies the adjoining Township and Range to the Lex project area as ldquoThe undergrowth is very light consisting of salal and manzanita with small pine The timber consists almost entirely of yellow pine which on the east of the township is of good quality but in the more broken country is small and scrubby It is all open forest with a heavy stand It is of good quality excepting on the high ground where it is somewhat smaller and branchy and mixes with the growth of lodgepole pine Although there is no way to quantify the exact stand conditions and fuel loadings based on any of these qualitative descriptions (eg ldquowell apartrdquo ldquoconsiderablerdquo and ldquodenserrdquo) it is evident that the broad categories described by Colville and others generally represent a diverse spectrum of age groups and successional classes of ponderosa pine mixed conifer lodgepole pine and mountain hemlock plant association groups found within the Lex project area and the greater central Oregon landscape with generally light undergrowth and a prevalence of ldquoYellow Pinerdquo (Table 4)

Table 4 Plant Association Groups and associated Fire Regimes within the Lex project area

Potential Natural Vegetation Groups Acres of Project

Area Fire Regime

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY 943 8 IV

LODGEPOLE PINE WET 5442 46 IV

MIXED CONIFER DRY 1016 8 III

MIXED CONIFER WET 4513 38 III

PONDEROSA PINE DRY 3 02 I

CINDER 13 1 NA

TOTAL 11930 100

The broad plant association groups found in the Lex project area can be further interpreted into historical fire regimes A fire regime is a general classification of the role fire would play across a natural landscape in the absence of modern human mechanical intervention but including the influence of aboriginal burning Coarse scale definitions for five natural (historical) fire regimes were developed by Hardy et al (2001) and Schmidt et al (2002) and interpreted for fire and fuels management by Hann and Bunnell (2001) These five natural (historical) fire regimes are classified based on average number of years between fires (fire frequency) combined with the severity (amount of mortality) of the fire on the dominant overstory vegetation Severity definitions were revised slightly in 2010 to remain consistent with the ongoing LANDFIRE project (Barrett et al 2010) Definitions of the five coarse scale categories are as follows

I 0-35 years Low severity Typical climax plant communities include ponderosa pine eastsidedry Douglas-fir pine-oak woodlands Jeffery pine on serpentine soils oak woodlands and very dry white fir Large stand-replacing fire can occur under certain weather conditions but are rare events (ie every 200+ years)

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

10 | P a g e

strategically applying treatments in key areas to reduce suppression resistance and interconnectivity of fuels This analysis does not attempt or pretend to suggest that mechanical treatments can fully mimic the process or post forest structure tied to wildfire in frequent fire landscapes However given the many social and fire risk factors in play in the Lex Project area they do provide a surrogate for certain elements of fire effects at the local and landscape scale PDCrsquos incorporating recent post fire surface fuels data (collected from the 2012 Pole Creek Fire) were utilized to best mimic natural processes (Agne MC et al 2016) To indicate how the alternatives affect suppression resistance within lodgepole the following measurement is used

Acres of lodgepole within project area rated as low moderate and high for wildfire hazard

Acres of lodgepole treated to decrease potential rates of spread decrease snag hazard and increase fireline production rates

Maintenance

Sustained alteration of fire behavior requires effective and frequent maintenance so that the effectiveness of any fuel treatment including fuelbreaks will not be only a function of the initial prescription for creation but also the standards for maintenance that are applied (Agee et al 2000) To meet and maintain desired conditions in the Lex planning area multiple entries of thinning mowing andor prescribed burning may be required Fire management personnel on the Deschutes have observed that mowing treatments typically start losing their effectiveness at reducing potential fire behavior after five years In prescribed burn units the interval between burns would depend on pre burn fuel loads post treatment fuel accumulation and post treatment brush response For example in a unit that exhibits high fuel loading a single entry of burning may not sufficiently reduce fuels In this case a second entry within two to eight years of the first may be required to meet desired conditions The maintenance prescribed burning (where applicable) will keep maintain reduced levels of naturally regenerated lodgepole pine white fir brush and accumulated litter through time and best mimic the quantified frequency of natural fire on the landscape Strategic roadside treatments will also require maintenance (hazard tree removal and mastication) through time to remain effective as outlined within AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT Affected Environment- Existing Potential Vegetation Fire Regimes and Fire History

Fredrick Colvilles 1898 report ldquoForest Growth and Sheep Grazing in the Cascade Mountains of Oregonrdquo generally describes vegetation on the eastern slope of the cascades over century ago Colville described ponderosa pine-dominated forests as ldquothe yellow pine forest hellip[in which] the principal species is hellippinus ponderosa The individual trees stand well apart and there is plenty of sunshine between themrdquo Colville describes the upper range of ponderosa pine forests as ldquodenser and often contain a considerable amount of Douglas spruce [fir]hellipCalifornia white firhellip with an undergrowth of snowbrushhellipmanzanitahelliprdquo and the areas dominated by lodgepole pine as ldquosmall thin barked trees easily killed by firehellipset so close together that it is often difficult to ride through them on horsebackrdquo Colville also describes the highest elevation areas adjacent to the Cascade crest as a ldquobelt of black hemlock a usually open forest with underbrush of huckleberrieshellipor wholly devoid of underbrushrdquo Leiberg describes in the 1903 document ldquoForest conditions in the Cascade Range Forest Reserve Oregonrdquo That lsquolsquoFires have run everywhere in the forest stands suppressing the young growth

11 | P a g e

burning great quantities of the firs and filling the forest with a great many small brushed-over tracts in place of the consumed timberrsquorsquo and that ldquoIn many localities the fires have made a clean sweep of the timber and the areas have grown up to brush in other places they have been of low intensity burning 40 per cent of a stand here 5 per cent there or merely destroying individual trees but consuming the humus and killing the undergrowthrsquorsquo Munger (1917) states lsquolsquoIn some stands there is a preponderance of very old trees in fact in many of the virgin stands of central and eastern Oregon there are more of the very old trees and less of the younger than the ideal forest should containrsquorsquo Dodwell (1903) classifies the adjoining Township and Range to the Lex project area as ldquoThe undergrowth is very light consisting of salal and manzanita with small pine The timber consists almost entirely of yellow pine which on the east of the township is of good quality but in the more broken country is small and scrubby It is all open forest with a heavy stand It is of good quality excepting on the high ground where it is somewhat smaller and branchy and mixes with the growth of lodgepole pine Although there is no way to quantify the exact stand conditions and fuel loadings based on any of these qualitative descriptions (eg ldquowell apartrdquo ldquoconsiderablerdquo and ldquodenserrdquo) it is evident that the broad categories described by Colville and others generally represent a diverse spectrum of age groups and successional classes of ponderosa pine mixed conifer lodgepole pine and mountain hemlock plant association groups found within the Lex project area and the greater central Oregon landscape with generally light undergrowth and a prevalence of ldquoYellow Pinerdquo (Table 4)

Table 4 Plant Association Groups and associated Fire Regimes within the Lex project area

Potential Natural Vegetation Groups Acres of Project

Area Fire Regime

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY 943 8 IV

LODGEPOLE PINE WET 5442 46 IV

MIXED CONIFER DRY 1016 8 III

MIXED CONIFER WET 4513 38 III

PONDEROSA PINE DRY 3 02 I

CINDER 13 1 NA

TOTAL 11930 100

The broad plant association groups found in the Lex project area can be further interpreted into historical fire regimes A fire regime is a general classification of the role fire would play across a natural landscape in the absence of modern human mechanical intervention but including the influence of aboriginal burning Coarse scale definitions for five natural (historical) fire regimes were developed by Hardy et al (2001) and Schmidt et al (2002) and interpreted for fire and fuels management by Hann and Bunnell (2001) These five natural (historical) fire regimes are classified based on average number of years between fires (fire frequency) combined with the severity (amount of mortality) of the fire on the dominant overstory vegetation Severity definitions were revised slightly in 2010 to remain consistent with the ongoing LANDFIRE project (Barrett et al 2010) Definitions of the five coarse scale categories are as follows

I 0-35 years Low severity Typical climax plant communities include ponderosa pine eastsidedry Douglas-fir pine-oak woodlands Jeffery pine on serpentine soils oak woodlands and very dry white fir Large stand-replacing fire can occur under certain weather conditions but are rare events (ie every 200+ years)

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

11 | P a g e

burning great quantities of the firs and filling the forest with a great many small brushed-over tracts in place of the consumed timberrsquorsquo and that ldquoIn many localities the fires have made a clean sweep of the timber and the areas have grown up to brush in other places they have been of low intensity burning 40 per cent of a stand here 5 per cent there or merely destroying individual trees but consuming the humus and killing the undergrowthrsquorsquo Munger (1917) states lsquolsquoIn some stands there is a preponderance of very old trees in fact in many of the virgin stands of central and eastern Oregon there are more of the very old trees and less of the younger than the ideal forest should containrsquorsquo Dodwell (1903) classifies the adjoining Township and Range to the Lex project area as ldquoThe undergrowth is very light consisting of salal and manzanita with small pine The timber consists almost entirely of yellow pine which on the east of the township is of good quality but in the more broken country is small and scrubby It is all open forest with a heavy stand It is of good quality excepting on the high ground where it is somewhat smaller and branchy and mixes with the growth of lodgepole pine Although there is no way to quantify the exact stand conditions and fuel loadings based on any of these qualitative descriptions (eg ldquowell apartrdquo ldquoconsiderablerdquo and ldquodenserrdquo) it is evident that the broad categories described by Colville and others generally represent a diverse spectrum of age groups and successional classes of ponderosa pine mixed conifer lodgepole pine and mountain hemlock plant association groups found within the Lex project area and the greater central Oregon landscape with generally light undergrowth and a prevalence of ldquoYellow Pinerdquo (Table 4)

Table 4 Plant Association Groups and associated Fire Regimes within the Lex project area

Potential Natural Vegetation Groups Acres of Project

Area Fire Regime

LODGEPOLE PINE DRY 943 8 IV

LODGEPOLE PINE WET 5442 46 IV

MIXED CONIFER DRY 1016 8 III

MIXED CONIFER WET 4513 38 III

PONDEROSA PINE DRY 3 02 I

CINDER 13 1 NA

TOTAL 11930 100

The broad plant association groups found in the Lex project area can be further interpreted into historical fire regimes A fire regime is a general classification of the role fire would play across a natural landscape in the absence of modern human mechanical intervention but including the influence of aboriginal burning Coarse scale definitions for five natural (historical) fire regimes were developed by Hardy et al (2001) and Schmidt et al (2002) and interpreted for fire and fuels management by Hann and Bunnell (2001) These five natural (historical) fire regimes are classified based on average number of years between fires (fire frequency) combined with the severity (amount of mortality) of the fire on the dominant overstory vegetation Severity definitions were revised slightly in 2010 to remain consistent with the ongoing LANDFIRE project (Barrett et al 2010) Definitions of the five coarse scale categories are as follows

I 0-35 years Low severity Typical climax plant communities include ponderosa pine eastsidedry Douglas-fir pine-oak woodlands Jeffery pine on serpentine soils oak woodlands and very dry white fir Large stand-replacing fire can occur under certain weather conditions but are rare events (ie every 200+ years)

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

12 | P a g e

II 0-35 years Stand-replacing non-forest Includes true grasslands (Columbia basin Palouse etc) and savannahs with typical return intervals of less than 10 years mesic sagebrush communities with typical return intervals of 25-35 years and occasionally up to 50 years and mountain shrub communities (bitterbrush snowberry ninebark ceanothus Oregon chaparral etc) with typical return intervals of 10-25 years Fire severity is generally high to moderate Grasslands and mountain shrub communities are not completely killed but usually only top-killed and resprout III 35-100+ years Mixed severity This regime usually results in heterogeneous landscapes Large stand-replacing fires may occur but are usually rare events Such stand-replacing fires may ldquoresetrdquo large areas (10000-100000 acres) but subsequent mixed intensity fires are important for creating the landscape heterogeneity Within these landscapes a mix of stand ages and size classes are important characteristics generally the landscape is not dominated by one or two age classes IV 35-100+ years Stand-replacing Seral communities that arise from or are maintained by stand-replacement fires such as lodgepole pine aspen western larch and western white pine often are important components in this fire regime Dry sagebrush communities also fall within this fire regime V gt200 years Stand-replacing or any severity This fire regime occurs at the environmental extremes where natural ignitions are very rare or virtually non-existent or environmental conditions rarely result in large fires Sites tend to be very cold very hot very wet very dry or some combination of these conditions

Mapped fire regimes across the Deschutes National Forest were developed by Forest experts and based on plant association group mapping (Figure 3 Table 4) Vegetative conditions in the mountain hemlock plant dominated areas can generally be classified as fire regime 5 No hemlock dominated acres are found within the project area but do lie closely enough to influence the area The lodgepole pine dominated areas of the project area are best described by fire regime IV where historically a 35 - 100 + year fire return interval with high severity could be expected however the spatial context of this must be kept in mind High severity at the stand level does not mean high severity across the entirety of an interconnected PAG Approximately 54 of the project area falls within this fire regime 46 of the project area is dominated by wet and dry mixed conifer stands that can generally be classified into fire regime III where mixed (ie low and high) severity fire at a 35 ndash 100 + year fire return interval was expected under historical conditions While acres incorporating Fire Regime 1 where low severity at a 0 ndash 35 year interval could be expected under historical conditions are non-existent within the project boundary there is considerable portions of the landscape in this regime type that surround and are influenced by the project area

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

13 | P a g e

Recent work by Merschal and others specific to the project area further help define the natural role of fire within the project area While Fire Regime typing works well at the landscape level Merschels work pinpoints the role of fire within the Lex project area and defines the mean fire return interval by stand type particularly defining parameters of Fire Regime III ldquoMixed Severityrdquo In this context the importance of fire in shaping the structure of the area becomes very clear (Figure 4) Regardless of mixed conifer typing or species composition the historic frequency of fire was quite high further supporting that within these landscapes a mix of stand ages size classes fuels accumulation and arrangement and successional pathways have historically been defined by fire

Figure 3 Spatial depiction of coarse scale fire regimes across the Lex Project Area

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

14 | P a g e

Figure 4 Fire interval groupings associated with the Lex planning area Fire type shows variance across the landscape Median return interval across all types 11-33 years

As evidenced by the Merschels work above historically fires have been a major influence in shaping the vegetation across the Lex landscape with a median fire return of 11-33 years and a maximum return of 70 years However in recent times fire suppression efforts have nearly eliminated the influence of fire across the project area Records archived by the Deschutes National Forest show that within the last 35 years 52 fires (30 lightning16 human-caused6 unknown an average of 15 annually) which burned one acre or less each have been suppressed within the project area (a one mile buffer was utilized to acknowledge starts that could feasibly influence the project area) Although it is not possible to determine the number of ignitions suppressed prior to 1980 or how much area each one of these ignitions would have burned if they were not suppressed it is evident that the majority of the Lex project area has missed at least one typical fire cycle and is altered from that which would have occurred historically In addition between May and September of 1990 and 2015 some 725 lightning strikes have been recorded within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area truly showing the ignition potential of the area

Table 6 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within and including 1 mile influence buffer of the Lex project area Point starts are those initiating on Forest Service land only

Fire Regime Number of Ignitions Fire Regimes 3 33

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

15 | P a g e

Fire Regimes 4 17 Fire Regimes 5 1

Total 52 Expanding these statistics upwards to the corresponding fire regime at the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area the annual suppression effect within the last 35 years becomes even more pronounced with 6 natural and 38 human caused fires suppressed on average annually on National Forest System (NFS) lands

Table 7 Recent 1980 ndash 2015 point fire history within the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area Point starts are those originating on National Forest System lands only

HUC 10 Watersheds Number of Fires Natural Human

Fire Regime 3 100 45 Fire Regime 4 92 89 Fire Regime 5 20 -- Average Starts SuppressedYear

6

38

Fall River and North Unit Diversion Dam ndash Deschutes River Historical records in addition to site specific work conducted by Merschal and others of ldquolargerdquo fires (those gt 100 acres) in the HUC10 watersheds that encompass the Lex project area show the widespread influence of fire prior to heavy logging and fire exclusion estimated around 1920 Furthermore at the mixed conifer plant association group on the western side of the Deschutes national forest approximately 76 of the total acreage burned by large fires as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) This recent increase of large fire over the past several years is likely the result of the current vegetation condition across the landscape that is increasingly homogenous and dominated by small tree ingrowth ladder fuels closed canopies fuel continuity and perhaps an increasingly warmer and drier climate across the inland Pacific Northwest (McKenzie 2008 Davis et al 2011) The change in conditions resulting from fire suppression and past management activities are most noticeable in Fire Regime types I and III where increases in vegetation growth in the absence of fire and consequently increased fire hazard are apparent At the stand level conditions in fire regime type IV are likely not extremely different from historic conditions due to naturally longer fire return intervals however when viewing at the wider landscape scale influences of homogeneity and lack of fuels fragmentation associated with past management practices and fire exclusion drive the potential for larger and more severe fires For example lodgepole pine stands are nearing or at their typical life expectancy promoting bark beetle outbreaks and a subsequent change in the fire hazard At the landscape scale the current unprecedented large numbers of dead trees resulting from the western wide mountain pine beetle outbreak (Bentz et al 2010) and the connectivity of these stands to lower elevation forests may cause high elevation high intensity fires to spread to lower elevation forests This scenario occurred during the BampB Fire (2003) the Pole Creek Fire (2012) and the Davis Fire (2010) Additionally it is possible that if a fire were to occur in these high elevation types the extent would be greater than that which would have occurred historically due to the cumulative effects of suppressing many small fires over time This again is demonstrated by the fact that 63 of the total acreage burned by large fires in this Fire Regime Type as recorded by Forest records from 1900 to present has burned in the past 15 years (Figure 5) Historical maps created in the early 20th century when the Deschutes National Forest was known as the ldquoCascade Range Forest Reserverdquo to document the amount of

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

16 | P a g e

merchantable timber across the Cascade Crest show numerous small to moderate sized fires none close in size to those of recent times (See Appendix A)

Figure 5 Trends in large fire size across Mixed Conifer and Lodgepole PAG types east

slopes of Cascades DNF

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

17 | P a g e

Figure 6 Point and polygon fire history within the Lex project area and vicinity

Affected Environment ndash Fuels Conditions The combination of mountain pine beetle activity (along with the resulting mortality) previous forest management practices and fire suppression activity over the last 100 years has shaped current vegetative conditions and consequently fuels within the Lex project area Lodgepole Fuels Mountain pine beetle activity in lodgepole pine has been documented in the vicinity of the Lex project area since 1981 and continues to cause widespread mortality of mature lodgepole pine stands across Oregon today (Flowers et al 2010) In some stands this outbreak has occurred incrementally over time meaning that it took several years or more for the majority of the mature component of a stand to die While in other stands annual mortality rates of the mature component was high Based on aerial detection data cumulatively this outbreak has resulted in mortality of much of the lodgepole pine greater than 8 inches dbh throughout the entirety of the project area Within a 1 mile buffer of the Lex project area 68600 acres of forested stands have been affected by MPB

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

18 | P a g e

TSB 2 TSB 3 TSB 4 33 9 58

Table 8 MPB affected stands by stage Based on aerial survey data and associated damage year signature

In terms of fuel loading and subsequent fire behavior this activity has left behind a variety of conditions ranging from standing dead with red or no needles to dead and down with pockets of regeneration and ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of smaller diameter trees Fuel loading and subsequent fire hazard in the Lex project area as it relates to mountain pine beetle activity is driven by the integration of three factors 1) time since mortality of the mature lodgepole pine 2) seedlingsapling and some pole sized lodgepole pine unaffected by the outbreak and 3) continued regeneration of lodgepole pine and other species in the absence of fire (USDA Forest Service 2011)

1) Time Since Mortality Given that some stands of mature lodgepole pine stands died incrementally over the last approximate 10-35 years overstory conditions are variable Throughout the Lex project area there are standing dead trees with red or no needles as well as accumulated dead and down surface fuels Due to the time since this attack initiated generally at the project-level scale the majority of the mature lodgepole pine is beginning to fall to the ground contributing to surface fuel loading Where the mature lodgepole has not fallen to the ground and regeneration is lacking surface fuels loading can be sparse generally composed of short-needled litter intermixed with grasses and forbs After the root system of dead trees fail and trees fall to the ground the surface fuel loadings increases making fires more difficult to suppress by impeding fireline construction (Haven et al 1982) (Figure 7 and 9)

2) Seedlings saplings and some pole sized lodgepole pine have been unaffected by the mountain pine beetle outbreak In some places these smaller diameter trees form ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets which equate to continuous crown fuel loading and therefore pose a considerable fire hazard (Figure 8)

3) Continued Regeneration Lodgepole pine in this area is largely non-serotinous (although some cone serotiny exists) when compared to Rocky Mountain lodgepole pine and therefore releases seed and regenerates in the absence of fire or direct solar heating (Anderson 2003) Pockets of regeneration can be found throughout the project area Additionally species such as white fir have been unaffected by mountain pine beetle and are growing in the understory These seedlings act as both ladder fuels when adjacent to larger sapling or pole sized trees and surface fuels when growing through dead and downed overstory trees When acting as a ladder

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

19 | P a g e

fuel these small trees may lead to passive (Simard et al 2010 Simard et al 2011) and possibly active crowning fire behavior

Figure 7 Plot photos from the Deschutes and Fremont-Winema National Forests showing fuel loading and time since mountain pine beetle (MPB) attack (Shaw 2014)

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to

20 | P a g e

Figure 8 Mountain pine beetle activity ldquodog-hairrdquo thickets of seedlings saplings and some pole sized trees

While this mountain pine beetle activity results in variable seral growth stages across the project area the exclusion of fire (see Affected Environment-Fire History) leads to a common trajectory of fuels build up (further perpetuated by slow decay rates given the cooldry nature of the project area) and ingrowth resulting in minimal fuels fragmentation across the landscape Shaw et al show for Deschutes NF lands an increase in surface rates of spread and flame lengths as a function of time since beetle kill Figure 10 While some decrease in 1000 hr fuels loads is seen in later stages (TSB4 26-32years) 100hr fuel loads continue to climb with most other fire hazard drivers beginning to again increase Figure 11

Figure 9 DNF photo plots showing TSB4 stand conditions with heavy dead and down fuels and beginning stages of regeneration

Figure 10 Comparison of simulated fire behavior between stages for flame lengths

21 | P a g e

Figure 11 100 and 1000 hour fuel loadings as associated with TSB

Mixed Conifer Fuels As mentioned in the previous section which discusses the effects of fire exclusion on current vegetation across the Lex project area the absence of fire over the last 100 years has contributed to the dense ingrowth of a shade tolerant understory and considerable fuel accumulation Around 1900 many of the mixed conifer stands of the Lex project area started becoming much denser with some starting to develop continuous understories (Merschal) While persistent grand fir stands have always existed within the Lex area many of the stands would have been more open with larger tree structure as an effect of fire return interval The persistent shade tolerant stands had an equal dominant of Grand Fir that was accustomed to fire This is highlighted in the fire record with a mean fire return interval of around 11-33 years (maximum 70 years) and conclusions by Merschel that fires regularly burned across the dry-moist ecotone through both hotdry Ponderosa Pine and cooler shade tolerant sites While longer intervals occurred it has been close to 120 years since the area has seen the influence of fire Tied to this has been the accumulation of fuels development of dense understory and mid canopy and the establishment of homogeneity across the landscape These conditions may lead to crown fire initiation increased fire severity and increased fire extent and therefore represent a state of susceptibility to uncharacteristic landscape scale stand replacing wildfire Figure 12 and 13 below highlight the heavy establishment of tree species around 1920 that now comprise a dense understory and mid canopy

22 | P a g e

Figure 13 Typical mid and understory ingrowth with surface fuel accumulation mixed conifer stands Lex Project area

Affected Environment ndash Expected Fire Hazard and Threat The Lex planning area is encompassed by high recreational use sites borders the Bend Watershed and provides habitat and sanctuary for wildlife species The area is a major hub for access to the Three Sisters Wilderness Pacific Crest Trail Mt Bachelor and numerous other trails and recreational areas Project specific research has

Figure 12 Development pattern of stand types from tree ring data A vertical line at 1920 indicates the onset of heavy logging and fire exclusion

23 | P a g e

shown the high influence of fire in the area and suggests numerous fire intervals (and associated ecosystem functions) have been missed Many forest stands are now closed with high accumulations of fuels that form contiguous patches increasing the risk of large high-intensity fires (Spies et al 2009) Combining this current landscape condition where there is fuel continuity between high and low elevation forest types with an ignition source typical weather conditions and high recreation use creates an atmosphere where a large scale ldquoproblem firerdquo is possible In the Lex project area the potential threat to human safety if a fire were to occur under certain conditions regardless of the probability of such an event and the desire to maintain large trees and mixed conifer habitat across the landscape drive a need for active management One example of a potential ldquoproblem firerdquo in similar forest types was the Pole Creek fire of 2012 The Pole Creek Fire occurred on the Sisters Ranger District in an area comprised of many similar ecosystem characteristics of those found in the Lex area The Pole Creek fire started from a lightning strike on September 9 2012 and grew to about 26120 acres The fire cost about $18 million to fight The fire burned across the Mt Hemlock Lodgepole Pine Dry and Wet Mixed Conifer and lower elevation Dry Ponderosa Pine plant association groups Across all plant association groups forty percent of the vegetation in Pole Creek was stand replaced 36 was mixed mortality and 24 underburned (Summers 2013) Fuels treatments played a significant role in stopping the fires spread towards the east and also demonstrated the reduction of fire severity to overstory trees in previously treated stands

Figure 14 Pole Creek fire

Across much of the Lex project area treating the landscape functions to reduce fire hazard in the context of maintaining resiliency and improving ecosystem function in the remaining stand Fuels treatments are applied to

24 | P a g e

both increase the feasibility of reintroduction of fire into a clearly fire adapted system and to further protect areas where treatment is not feasible due to one or more constraints In areas of the project where there is no proposed treatment trade-offs were made to balance meeting overarching management goals and system resiliency Desired Future Condition and Related Strategies From a fuels perspective the desired future condition would be a mosaic of landscape-scale treatments managed to reduce fire hazard to facilitate the suppression of human-caused wildfires protect valuable natural resources and allow the re-introduction of fire as a disturbance process These conditions tier to the Forest-wide goal for Fire and Fuels management by being responsive to resource management goals while improving the efficiency of future fire management efforts (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73) Specifically the goals for Fire and Fuels Management include prevention of human caused wildfire in areas identified as high use and high risk including recreational use along major travel ways and large areas of beetle killed pine two major components of the Lex project area (Deschutes LRMP p 4-73 4-74) Additionally these conditions tier to several of the management area goals which encourage the use of prescribed fire to meet resource goals (eg timber and forage) and to reduce hazardous fuels (see Table in Management Direction section Deschutes LRMP p 4-119 p 4-131 p 4-139 p 4-144 p 4-162)

At the stand level in areas proposed for maintenanceenhancement of fire influenced mixed conifer stands this translates to canopy characteristics and a fuel profile that do not support extreme fire behavior (ie crown fire high resistance to control high flame lengths) under severe fire conditions To achieve this state of resiliency stands should have a height to live crown that is well above the shrub and seedling components Shrubs and understory ingrowth should be maintained at a height and continuity that would reduce the potential for rapid rates of spread and crown fire initiation Crown bulk density should be reduced through selective harvest the generally accepted crown bulk density threshold for crown fire is 010 kgm3 (Agee J K The Influence of Forest Structure on Fire Behavior 1996) Dead and downed materials should not be overly extensive Figures 15 and 16 and large trees that are more resistant to fire-induced mortality should be maintained (Agee 2002 Hessburg amp Agee 2003) The intent of the action alternatives is to reduce fire hazard over the greatest area of mixed conifer stands as possible while balancing other resource concerns and budget constraints These conditions are supported by the DCFP recommendations and can be achieved with a variety of methods including prescribed burning mowing (mastication) thinning and selective harvest

In areas outside mixed conifer stands to facilitate the best management of a wildfire that originates in or adjacent to the project area it is desired that fuel loading be reduced to a level that will lessen the intensity and resistance to control of wildfire It is also desired that firefighter safety and efficiency is increased by decreasing snags and fuel loading The landscape within the project area should display a mosaic of strategically placed areas which are managed to reduce and compartmentalize fire hazard This translates to development of strategic breaks in continuity of fuels with the desired surface vegetation characterized by potential fire behavior represented by Scott and Burgan fuel model TL1 Appendix D

Leaving some untreated areas at the landscape scale and providing for within-stand spatial heterogeneity of residual trees and shrubs are important components of treatment which help meet the goals of reducing habitat loss due to stand replacement fire while restoring forest habitats These desired conditions highlight the importance of maintainingpromoting large trees as well as variable spatial arrangements of residual trees to