Public Opinion in Ukraine

2014

F i n d i n g s f r o m t h e I F E S 2 0 1 4 s u r v e y i n U k r a i n e

F i e l d w o r k c o n d u c t e d f r o m A p r i l 8 - 1 5 , 2 0 1 4

S a m p l e s i z e , n = 2 0 3 9

F u n d i n g p r o v i d e d b y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s A g e n c y f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t ( U S A I D )

• 1respondents representing the voting-age population in Ukraine (18 years+).

Sample size:

• ±2.2% within a 95% confidence interval.Margin of error:

• All the administrative divisions of Ukraine; observations were allocated proportionately at the national level with an over-sample of observations in Kyiv.

Sample area coverage:

• April 8-15, 2014Fieldwork dates:

• IFES contracted with the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) to conduct fieldwork and data processing for the survey.

Survey firm:

• The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) provided funding for this survey.

Funding:

• Data was weighted by age, region and gender to bring the realized sample in line with target population parameters in order to be nationally representative of the adult (18+) population of Ukraine.

Weights:

Methodological Details

Unity in Ukraine

“Please tell me how you would characterize the current situation in Ukraine with regard to the unity of division of the country? Do you think Ukraine is currently…” (n=2,039)

4%9% <0.5%

2% 2% 4%

15%

17%

10%

17%10%

22%

38%29%

43%

39%

34%

47%

35% 33% 35% 30%

46%

22%

4%4% 5% 6% 5%

2%5% 7% 5% 6% 5% 3%

Ukraine North + Kyiv Center South East West

DK/NR

Neither

Completely Divided

Somewhat Divided

Somewhat United

Completely United

Stability of Current Situation in Ukraine

“And how would you characterize the current situation in Ukraine in terms of stability? Do you think the current situation in Ukraine is…” (n=2,039)

0% 0% 0%1% 0% 2%

3% 4%2%

2% 1%5%

20%24%

13%

24%19%

23%

74% 67%

80%

71%78%

70%

2% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Ukraine North + Kyiv Center South East West

Very Stable Somewhat Stable Somewhat Chaotic Very Chaotic DK/NR

“How much control do you think the current Ukrainian government exercises in the country?” (n=2,039)

Level of Control Exercised byUkrainian Government

2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2%

21%26% 25%

25%

14%

27%

45%38%

55%

5%

37%

56%

27% 27%

13%

8% 42%

10%

6% 6% 6%7%

6% 5%

Ukraine North + Kyiv Center South East West

Full Control Significant Control, but Not Full Not in Much Control No Control at All DK/NR

9%

26%18%

31%

26%

26%

24%

15%

18%

21% 18%21%

15% 17% 17%

The government is carrying our itsresponsibility in a transparent

manner

The Yatseniuk government is thelegitimate government of Ukraine

The government represents allregions and people of Ukraine

DK/NR

Strongly Disagree

Somewhat Disagree

Somewhat Agree

Strongly Agree

“Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statements about thecurrent government led by Prime Minister Yatseniuk?” (n=2,039)

Government of Prime Minister Yatseniuk

Legitimacy of Yatseniuk Government(in the East)

7%

17%

22%34%

19%

Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeDK/NR

Kharkiv

12%

18%

14%36%

19%

East

4%

28%

20%

31%

17%

Luhansk3%8%

28%52%

9%

Donetsk

Does Government Represent All Ukraine?(in the East)

4%

14%

23%

41%

18%

“If Presidential election were held today, in your opinion would they be:” (n=2,040)

Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeDK/NR

Kharkiv

5%

21%

12%44%

18%

East

3%

9%

23%57%

8%

Luhansk1%8%

27%

56%

8%

Donetsk

Who does the government represent (n=526):Western Ukraine (51%)Oligarchs (41%)Maidan (20%)Nationalists (18%)Kyiv (16%)Central Ukraine (14%)Radicals/Fascists (13%)

Likelihood of Voting in Presidential Election

“How likely are you to vote in the May 25 presidential elections?” (n=2,039)

56% 57%63%

50%41%

78%

25%31%

26%

25%

27%

16%4%

2% 5%

5%

6%

3%

5%

5% 3%

8%

8%

1%

6%3%

7%12%

1%3% 2% 5% 5% 5%

1%

Ukraine North + Kyiv Center South East West

DK/NR

Definitely Will Not Vote

Very Unlikely

Not Too Likely

Somewhat Likely

Very Likely

Presidential Election Preference among Likely Voters

“If the presidential elections were held today, which declared candidate would you vote for?”

Olha Bohomolets3%

Anatoliy Gritsenko

3% Mikhailo Dobkin

3%

Oleh Liashko4%

Petro Poroshenko35%

Yuliya Tymoshenko

10%

Petro Symonenko2%

Serhiy Tihipko5%

Others3%

Not Sure, 26%

DK/NR6%

Perceived Integrity of Presidential Election

“How likely are you to vote in the May 25 presidential elections?” (n=2,039)

7% 8%12%

4% 5% 8%

39%43%

45%

33% 27%

53%

24%18%

21%

26%29%

22%

13%8% 18% 20%

4%

17%23%

13%19% 18%

12%

UKRAINE North + Kyiv Center South East West

DK/NR

Not free and fair at all

So flawed would doubtaccuracy of results

Flawed but reasonablyfree and fair

Completely free and fair

“Now we want to talk about your experience with things that happen in everyday life. In the last twelve months have you…”

Experiences with Corruption in Ukraine

7% 11% 11%21%

7%

41%

12%

93% 89% 90%79%

92%

59%

88%

Police officerasked for a bribe

(n=1353)

Pay a bribe toavoid a traffic

citation(n=1,303)

Pay moneyabove that

required by lawto local

government toprocess adocument(n=1,383)

Pay a bribe atschool (n=763)

Pay a bribe tothe courts

(n=517)

Pay a bribe inorder to be seenin a hospital or aclinic (n=1,431)

Pay a bribe atwork (n=1,044)

Yes No

Corruption in Ukraine

Yes, to a great

extent21%

Yes, to some extent

35%

No, to a very

limited extent

18%

No, not at all

13%

DK/NR14%

“Do you agree or disagree with this statement: ‘Ukrainians consider corruption as a fact of life.’?” (n=2,039)

Yes28%

No57%

DK/NR15%

“Do you think that given the way things are in Ukraine, sometimes paying a bribe is justified?” (n=2,039)

What Can be Done about Corruption?

SurveyDo you think it is possible for ordinary people to live a life in Ukraine without corruption or bribery? [If Yes] What actions or policies do you think can be taken by the government to achieve this?

• No (26%)• Don’t know (29%)

Yes• Strict punishment for corruption (29%)• More transparency (26%) • Change those in power to those who will fight

corruption (10%)• Changes in legislation (10%)• Change people’s attitudes toward corruption

(9%)• Ban corruption officials from public office (7%)• Better salaries for public officials (5%)• Other (9%)

Focus Groups:

- Better salaries- Sufficient legislation - Independent authority to pursue corruption- Public information/socialization- Punishment for public officials, especially

higher levels- Several mentions of examples set by Georgia

(electronic records) and Belarus (strict punishments)

- People will not stop paying bribes because it is necessary, and they need to see some action by the government to show that it is serious

Values Most Closely Associated with Ukrainian Way of Life

Differences by Region

East – 51R 9W 11B

North – 25R 25W 6B

Center – 37R 26W 6B

South – 44R 12W 14B

West – 7R 53W 18B

Russian33%

Western25%

Neither16%

Both9%

DK/NR17%

“When you think of the Ukrainian way of life, do you associate it more closely with Western values or with Russian values?“ (n=2,039)

11%

6%

5%

12%

8%

9%

12%

15%

18%

23%

46%

DK/NR

Other

Economic relationships

Language

Kinship, friendship

Same outlooks, interests

Language

Religion, morality

Ethnic heritage

Culture

History, traditions

“What values does Ukraine share with Russia?”(n=675)

16%

13%

2%

3%

3%

4%

4%

12%

14%

14%

27%

28%

DK/NR

Other

Peaceful

Independent, patriotic

Respect for traditions

Stability

Social protection, services

Economic devp.

Respectful of people

Rule of law

Democracy

Rights and freedoms

“What values does Ukraine share with the West?” (n=499)

Values Ukraine Shares with Russia/West

Opinions on the European Union

40%

61%

30%

58%

59%

19%

17%

19%

16%

14%

41%

22%

51%

26%

27%

Interferes in the affairs of other nations for its owneconomic benefit

Has a culture and values that Ukraine should aspire to

Tries to impose its culture on other countries

Promotes democracy in Ukraine

Treats Ukraine with respect

Agree DK/NR Disagree

“I’ll read you several statements, and you tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with each. Towhat extent to you agree or disagree that the EU…?

Opinions on Russia

71%

30%

53%

16%

21%

10%

19%

15%

13%

10%

24%

51%

33%

71%

69%

Interferes in the affairs of other nations for its owneconomic benefit

Has a culture and values that Ukraine should aspire to

Tries to impose its culture on other countries

Promotes democracy in Ukraine

Treats Ukraine with respect

Agree DK/NR Disagree

“I’ll read you several statements, and you tell me to what extent you agree or disagree with each. Towhat extent to you agree or disagree that Russia…?

“Do you think that Ukraine would be better off if it had closer economic and political relations with Europe or Russia?” (n=2,039)

Europe, 44%

Russia, 21%

Neither, 9%

Both, 21%

DK/NR, 5%

Future Orientation of Ukraine

West – Eur. (82%), Rus. (2%), Both (9%)

Center - Eur. (59%), Rus. (4%), Both (17%)

North - Eur. (50%), Rus. (8%), Both (22%)

East - Eur. (16%), Rus. (46%), Both (26%)

South - Eur. (27%), Rus. (24%), Both (28%)

3% 2%9% 9%

19% 17%

63% 64%

6% 8%

The Russian language is discriminated againstin Ukraine

Some government services are not providedfor Russian speakers in Ukraine (e.g. schools,

public service jobs, etc.)

DK/NR

Strongly Disagree

Somewhat Disagree

Somewhat Agree

Strongly Agree

“Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statements:” (n=2,039)

Opinions on Discrimination against Russian Language in Ukraine

“A lot of discussion has been given to the status of Russian as a language in Ukraine. Which of the following do you think is the appropriate status of the Russian language in Ukraine?” (n=2,039)

Status of Russian Language in Ukraine

27% 23% 19%

36% 41%

9%

24%

11% 20%

27%

35%

19%

34%

40%

50%

23%

20%

47%

12%22%

6% 9%2%

21%

4% 5% 5% 4% 2% 4%

UKRAINE North + Kyiv Center South East West

DK/NR

Russian should have no offical status in Ukraine

Russian should not be recognized as an official language, but the state should make Russian language services available

Russian should be recognized as an official regional language

Russian should have the status of an official language

17%

17%

21%

27%

20%

Ukrainian nationalism represented by figures like Bandera is a dangerous historical phenomena presenting athreat to non-ethnic Ukrainians.

DK/NR

Strongly Disagree

Somewhat Disagree

Somewhat Agree

Strongly Agree

“Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statements:” (n=2,039)

Ukrainian Nationalism

Agree/Disagree

East: 57/23South: 50/33Center: 11/61North: 26/56West: 8/79

“Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: ‘Although recent events have brought out divisions between different groups of people in Ukraine, we all still live in one country and will be able to repair our divisions in the long run.’” (n=2,039)

Opinion on Whether Current Divisions in Ukraine will be Overcome

39% 41%47%

38%30%

45%

35% 33%

42%

35%

34%

36%

5% 5% 9%

9%

1%3% 1%3%

6%

<0.5%

18% 20%

11%15%

21%17%

Ukraine North + Kyiv Center South East West

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree DK/NR

“Which of these two kinds of system of government do you think is best for Ukraine:…?” (n=2,039)

A system in which national government makes most

decisions on cultural, political, and economic issues, and

regional government do not have much authority, 16%

A system in which regional governments have

substantial decision-making authority on cultural,

political, and economic rights, 65%

DK/NR, 19%

Best Type of Governance for Ukraine

Opinions on More Powers for Oblast and Resolution of Differences

Strongly Agree32%

Somewhat Agree41%

Somewhat Disagree

4%

Mostly Disagree

2%

DK/NR21%

Yes, Definitely

25%

Yes, Probably

56%

Not Likely6%

Not At All1%

DK/NR12%

“There has been recent discussion of changing the political system in Ukraine to one in which each

oblast government would have more control over decision-making on important cultural, political, and economic issues within the oblast. Do you

agree or disagree with this approach” (n=2,039)

“Do you think this system of government can help to resolve differences between different regions of Ukraine?” (n=2,039)

29%

56% 55%

43%

30%

28% 31%

36%10%

2%2%

3%

11%

3% 2%

2%

20%

11% 10%16%

Language and culturalpolicies should be decided

at the oblast level

Oblast Head of LocalAdministration should be

directly elected

Oblasts should keep agreater share of their

resources

Oblasts should be allowedto determine certain

economic policies

DK/NR

Strongly Disagree

Somewhat Disagree

Somewhat Agree

Strongly Agree

“Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following actions to reformgoverning structures in Ukraine:”

Opinions on Level of Responsibility for Oblasts